This is going to sound moronic, but what if they're doing it to disrupt defensive positions on the other side of the river so they can send small boats in? Think pic related.
There were some crossings reported near Kherson earlier. If this is real, maybe Russia did it to make it harder to establish a bridgehead? Though, this is the reservoir that supplies fresh water to Crimea isn't it?
Who actually profits from it?
Russian defenses on the east bank get swept away?
Ukrainian beachheads get swapped away?
Zapo NPP gets less coolant?
Crimea gets less fresh water?
WHO ACTUALLY GETS A TACTICAL ADVANTAGE??
Has flooding ever been used for offensive actions?
I think it’s the Russians using this, flooding must be defensive.
Russia would never do this simply because it fricks Crimeas water supply which was a huge part of why the war was fought in the first place. Ukies get the advantage of russians scrambling around trying to save themselves from drowning since they will be the ones more effected by this and they can also get great optics from this by saying Russia did it
>which was a huge part of why the war was fought in the first place.
Yes, like demilitarizing Ukraine and stopping NATO expansion. The stated reasons for this war by Putin/Russia are all fake. Don't know why people still assume Russians to state the truth or behave like rational actors. Besides, buying some desalination plants is a shitload cheaper than stsrting a war, no matter how quick you think you will win it.
Putin simply wanted to go down in history as one of the Greats. Russians wanted to destroy their neighboring inferior "little brothers", to make an example to the U.S. and other wayward subjects, as well as punish Ukrainians for daring to leave the Russian empire.
Ah yes the famous dam bustings of WW1 used for big offensive movements, you fricking double Black person
11 months ago
Anonymous
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Yser
11 months ago
Anonymous
On 25 October, the German pressure on the Belgians was so great that a decision was taken to inundate the Belgian front line. After an abortive attempt on 21 October, the Belgians managed to open the sluices at Nieuwpoort during the nights of 26–30 October, during high tides, steadily raising the water level until an impassable flooded area was created of about one mi (2 km) wide, stretching as far south as Diksmuide.
Not offensively you functionally illiterate troglodyte
11 months ago
Anonymous
11 months ago
Anonymous
The goal was always offensive use of flooding.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise
comes closest but even in that context it makes more sense for the Russians to do it
And the Germans retreated because the flooding was BEHIND THEM and if the Allies attacked they would be trapped
Also supports the notion that the Russians did it
11 months ago
Anonymous
And the Germans retreated because the flooding was BEHIND THEM and if the Allies attacked they would be trapped
The more modern example would be the Sino-Jap conflict of which the Chinese blew the levees on yellow river and killed almost a million of their own people just to stop Japanese offensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Yellow_River_flood
11 months ago
Anonymous
Yes, which also is a defensive action, I was asking for examples where it was used offensively.
I know the brits busted dams in WW2 to frick with German electricity production but not to prepare for offensive movements
It will make crossing the river harder, but the Ukies simply do not have the capabilities to actually do that in force anyway.
I mean, we call it a river but look at it. Crossing that is pretty close to am amphibious landing operation, and then you're stuck with pontoon bridges that connnect to a few known crossing points.
I mean OK the Germans did it in WW2 so it's obviously possible, and apparently the Russians do worry about it to some degree because they did put up defenses on their side..
All in all I'D say it'S a tactical advantage for the Russians becasue tehy are on teh defensive and this mkaes attacking across teh river more difficult.
And in the long run it fricks over Crimea's agriculture some more. Also, it cuts the water supply that keeps the nuclear power plant cooled.
Both of which Russia curretnly controls. So unless Russia likes damaging their own stuff, the conclusion here would be that they expect to not control Crimean agriculture and the power plant at some point in the future.
Welp.
Some important context is the scale of this dam's reservoir: 15+ cubic kilometers versus 10 currently stored in Lake Meade (Hoover Dam) versus 0.135 + 0.199 cubic kilometers released by Operation Chastise.
It's entire possible that the dam simply gave out on its own, it took several hits during the kherson offensive and I dont see either side having a good reason to blow it now
Maybe the stress from thermal expansion due to rising temperatures pushed it over the edge or something
Wasn't the general consensus that the Ukrainians were going to be most likely attacking from up north down towards Melitopol/Mariupol? Blowing the dam up seems like something that would cause more problems than it would prevent.
11 months ago
Anonymous
It allows Russians to concentrate their forces on the defence. Now they don't have to watch the Kherson flank at all, and if they need to retreat toward Crimea their flank will be covered as they go.
>https://cornucopia.se/2022/10/worst-case-modelling-for-nova-kakhovka-dam-break/
this website is saying it'd take one of the largest non-nuclear explosions to blow it
The entire dam had to have been literally packed with explosives to do that level of damage. You can see the center of the dam has disappeared entirely as the water rushing out is completely smooth and free of ripples because there's literally no structure left to make the water turbulent.
11 months ago
Anonymous
Yeah, the ukranians are actual terrorists for doing this
11 months ago
Anonymous
>The entire dam had to have been literally packed with explosives to do that level of damage.
Okay in that case who was in control of the dam? That must have been the one who did it, as the other wouldn't have had the capacity.
11 months ago
Anonymous
Russia controlled the pump houses, which are pretty fricked.
This is at best a wash, or tie goes to the side that doesn't intend to hold the area.
If this was the Russians, I can see this working to their advantage in Zaporizhia, but I don't get it for Crimea. I wonder if the Russians tried to catch Ukrainains crossing downriver.
the left side of the kherson river will become utterly impassible for a long while, even with bridging equipment. It was swampy before, now it will be a shallow river delta.
the potentiality of a nuclear disaster in the south is as "salt the earth in retreat" as it gets.
Any occupation on the sea of Azov coastline would be attrited down due to no safe permanent defensive lines,
supply lines would have to extend through or around the region, without smaller local storage.
As I understand it, there is no real potentiality for a nuclear disaster. This is a panic move by the Russians to prevent a possible crossing so they can concentrate their forces north and east, and maybe cover their retreat into Crimea if necessary. It also shows that they seem to have no intention of holding on to that territory very long either, since long-term blowing the dam fricks them.
I believe you're correct. The ZPP reservoir is upstream, 140 km to the northwest.
11 months ago
Anonymous
It's the same reservoir
11 months ago
Anonymous
This is the lowest of six dams on that stretch of the Dnipro; I believe the ZNPP is fed by a closer one.
If not do you think Putin was trying for a "golly, the nuclear plant is in danger, I guess NATO will need to broker a cease-fire for me"?
11 months ago
Anonymous
Go look at Google Earth. There's nothing between Nova Kakhova and Zaporizhzhya NPP.
That's a big frickin hole, and a god damn shitload of water. What could have done this? Neither side has missiles big enough, I doubt aircraft can get close. SOF planting charges?
You don't need a lot to do a lot. You're forgetting that every dam ever made suffers from extreme pressure on one side, and always has to deal with fissures in the cement. If you can just compromise the structure enough, mother nature will take care of the rest and destroy the dam. That's why people talk about destroying the 3 Gorges with just conventional JDAMs. Nukes wouldn't be needed because the insane water pressure would take care of the hard part.
The fact that the water pouring out is entering laminar flow has to mean that there's literally nothing left of the dam structure to make it turbulent in that area. That wall is GONE.
>I find the Russian telegrams usually exaggerate but rarely outright make shit up
Yes it is so in Telegram group Incest Slave Z many things are shown that the western Media dare not!
Remember this war was start to "help" Russians in Ukraine. Putin did a real good job helping them 'bout as good as he has done helping the Russian Federation.
He then proceeded to help the Russian-speaking majorities in Kharkov by shelling them immediately and continuously for the entire war.
Also the Russian speaking majorities in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, etc have been thoroughly helped.
Less explosive than you might think applied on the right spot.. the British dam buster bombs were based off of 55 gallon drums… not tiny, but compare it to something like a tall boy…
Some Soviet developed bombs could do it. The dam buster bomb in question had a boom equal to nearly 10,000ibs of TNT(they used 6,600ibs of Torpex).
A FAB-9000 has nearly 20k Ibs of boom, a pretty high power level, but I don't think they're still in service with Russia, maybe Ukraine still has some.
BETAB-500s are kind of small by explosive weight at 216ibs, but are designed to penetrate concrete bunkers and crater runways, and dams have been destroyed by as little as 280ibs of TNT.
FAB-500M-62s have at most 660ibs of boom assuming that none of it has been sacrificed for the glide/guidance kit and are in very common usage by the Russians, with Ukrainian officials saying they receive 10-20 each day.
KAB-1500 family has the most suitable bombs the Russians have for it, several being specificly designed for penetrating through concrete, although the KAB-1500 family of bombs is in short supply. The most suitable oof them, KAB-1500L-EX, is for destroying buried nuke silos.
Dam itself was probably built pretty tough. Despite planning to fight any scenario for WWIII offensively the Soviets prepared extensively for nuclear and conventional defensive warfare within the Union in their construction.
Planning like that is why most of the commie-blocks in the Fort of Bahkmut are still standing, though ruined.
Oh, and a missile could probably do it. Air raid alarms these past six hours all over Ukraine, with a bunch of arrivals.
If Russia did this they'd get shooting their own foot. Their defensive areas and fortifications in that part of Kherson are in the flood affected zone. As they sit on the lower bank.
Ukies most likely have less they need to defend and can dedicated more units on other fronts since any immediete threat of a dnipro crossing by Russians is gonna take a while to materialise.
It doesn't make any sense for the Ukrainians to blow it up since it might, uh, flood Kherson. It doesn't make a lot of sense for the Russians to do it either though since Crimea's water supply is fricked, unless they don't intend to keep it, or have opted to just wreck Ukraine at this point and slow the offensive as much as possible.
The key is to figure out who it harms the least. I think Ukraine might be in a better position here, but that really depends on how many people are living in the parts of Kherson that are about to be flooded. Russians, on the other hand, have lots of important defenses in the floodplain, and Crimea relied heavily on this reservoir for fresh water for irrigation.
11 months ago
Anonymous
>destroy dam >conflict is suddenly labeled a "humanitarian crisis" >Fortunate Son starts blaring in the distance
>kill a few thousand people
This is why we can throw out the Ukies doing it as a theory. Politically they couldn't harm their own people like this, the truth would come out and they know it. Putin OTOH doesn't care.
11 months ago
Anonymous
They would theoretically have several hours to evacuate people even once the water was on it's way. If they planned this they could have started before the dam burst. Though we probably would've heard something about that, unless they were blocking all communications somehow.
11 months ago
Anonymous
There are Ukrainian citizens on the Russian controlled bank.
11 months ago
Anonymous
True. It just seems like such a short sighted, poorly thought out move for the Russians. I guess I should have learned not to expect anything less by now.
11 months ago
Anonymous
Oh please, spare us your trannoid logic. The explosion was on the Russian side. That's enough.
11 months ago
Anonymous
>trannoid
Oh just go back to kiwifarms you pathetic piece of shit. Leave this discussion to the adults.
11 months ago
Anonymous
>kiwifarms
No idea what that is nor do I care to find out. Most normal people hate you pedos
11 months ago
Anonymous
Sadly the only appropriate countermove in this situation is to strike the Kursk NPP.
[...]
Stings to have someone immediately call you out, doesn't it? I'm gonna buy a bottle of champagne when your webhost gets arrested.
lay off the estrogen and take your schizo pills
Isn't it just so infuriating saying all of these mean things, knowing that you don't know who the person you're saying to them is, knowing that they're just laughing at you? You must feel so impotent.
https://i.imgur.com/YAXhtFk.jpg
LMAO, seethe more, kiwigay.
Yeah if you haven't been bowled over by a large wave or been near floodwaters you don't have an intuitive sense of just how heavy water is. That shit is terrifying. From the perspective of a dam a single hole is death as it will then be eroded and opened wider by an infinite stream of water.
[...]
Here's a hint. Don't talk like a kiwifarms user and use kiwifarms slang if you don't want to be identified as one.
>homosexuals see someone use phrase they don't like online; have schizo meltdown over nothing
a tale as old as time
11 months ago
Anonymous
Go and dilate your stink ditch, troon.
11 months ago
Anonymous
We get it, kid, you want to frick trannies and you've come here to tell us. Now go leave and jerk off to bald men with veganas or whatever you pathetic shits do there.
11 months ago
Anonymous
>We
11 months ago
Anonymous
Responding to the wrong dude my homie
11 months ago
Anonymous
Responding to the wrong dude my homie
Looking through the replies I must have clicked on
lay off the estrogen and take your schizo pills
by mistake as I am phonegay posting rn. My bad.
11 months ago
Anonymous
They probably pulled anything back a while ago. Wouldn't need them if they planned to flood it any way since the enemy wont be coming from that direction. Have more freedom to move them up west instead.
>Implying Russia wouldn't just drown their disposable mobliks to preserve opsec
Out of curiosity, does anyone know how many people have moved back into Kherson? I wonder if the Ukrainians felt that flooding it was worth flooding Russian defenses on the other side and cutting off the water supply to Crimea at this stage of the counteroffensive.
I call glowies on this one. There is no way Russians can be this moronic. They would be inviting for more trouble if we take in consideration that Power Plant is going to get fricked, causing an ecological disaster that might flood into other parts of Europe.
And the Ukranians can't be that moronic to do that..right?
>who profits from this
Both sides get fricked. Ukraine gets fricked more.
Ukraine >Has to divert resources to rescue operations >Any crossing operations are completely scuttled >Lost incredibly valuable infrastructure and received shittons of internal damage they didn't need to take from the flood >Kherson fricked >Their artillery gets forced back south of the dam >Landed infantry on the east bank in danger/dead if they're still there and couldn't get out in time
Russia >Any hope of restoring water supply to Crimea is gone >The east bank is lower so they just lost a shitton of land and villages and their forces get pushed back further than they already had been by Ukraine taking the west bank with superior artillery
Russia basically only loses hope of getting back shit they'd already lost and has to pull back some more. For Ukraine it's a costly clusterfrick.
>There will be negligible flooding on the Ukrainian controlled portion of the river.
"Negligible" relative the total area getting fricked, which is gonna be big. Parts of Kherson are still gonna get fricked.
Having part of a major city end up underwater is bad actually.
Yes but the other bank is empty land they can just walk away from and it turns into defensible marsh.
Ukraine side is vital crossing docks and cites lost.
And no dry land to try to cross into.
For now its a total russian victory
>The east bank is lower so they just lost a shitton of land and villages and their forces get pushed back further than they already had been by Ukraine taking the west bank with superior artillery
This could be a potential benefit for Russia, at least in the short term. This frees up the troops that were defending the banks of the Dnipro from Ukrainian crossings.
Ria Novosti, Russian state-affiliated media, was denying that it happened a little less than two hours ago: Mayor of occupied Nova Kakhovka tells RIA Novosti that the dam is fine, everything is "quiet", and "normal everywhere".
40 minutes ago: Mayor "corrects" his story to say that, actually, Ukrainians shelled the hydroelectric station overnight.
I think at this point we can safely point the finger at the Russians, who mined the dam in their territory and blew it up.
Yeah, if the Russians are already pointing fingers at the Ukrainians for it, you know they're lying. They want the immediate tactical advantages of blowing the dam without the humanitarian fallout. Typical Russian MO.
11 months ago
Anonymous
What's darkly humorous is that the dam break supposedly happened at 2:35am local time. The Russian-appointed quisling mayor was on Telegram as late as 6:27am saying "nope, all is quiet here" and later corrected his story to "night strikes on the dam".
RF state media now saying it collapsed due to "damage".
>Tactical implications
hohol dreams of crossing are over.
they have no choice but to try to move across prepared kill zones for them where russians eagerly expect them.
One guy in the replies there posted this interesting map and short article for the affected areas of the flooding
https://cornucopia.se/2022/10/worst-case-modelling-for-nova-kakhovka-dam-break/
The dam looks fricked. The water levels don't seem to be a huge difference in height so I'm not sure how much it would take to stabilize the situation long-term and what type of damage there will be downstream. Also not sure how badly it will frick up water for the powerplant. Russia evacuated civilians on the south bank a while ago, so that might be evidence of planning. Russia wants to inflict economic damage on Ukraine, and blowing the bridge hurts Ukraine, but blowing the bridge also fricks over Russian controlled Crimea.
Russia is claiming Ukraine did it, but Russia lies about everything. Blowing the bridge slows Ukraine from advancing into Kherson from across river but it also fricks over Russian defensive positions on south bank. Blowing the bridge might trap Russian troops deployed to south bank who can't leave due to flooding.
Whoever seems more prepared for the bridge being blown is likely who did it.
Apparently the nuclear plant uses mostly groundwater for cooling, so it's not really at risk.
who the frick actually benefits from this?
If Ukraine blew it up, they denied themselves a potential river crossing and may have potentially fricked over the Zaphorizhia NPP, meaning more of Ukraine becomes irradiated wasteland.
If Russia did it they just fricked over Crimea's water supply and just washed away a shitload of towns on the riverbanks that are under their control.
I don't think the Ukrainians were seriously considering a full scale river crossing, and I doubt Russia would blow the dam just because of the smaller incursions that did happen.
If Ukraine blew it up, they denied themselves a potential river crossing and may have potentially fricked over the Zaphorizhia NPP, meaning more of Ukraine becomes irradiated wasteland.
If Russia did it they just fricked over Crimea's water supply and just washed away a shitload of towns on the riverbanks that are under their control.
Russians have slightly more reason to blow it up.
If they’re retreating, they’ll salt the earth their entire path home.
To Ukraine, this is their original territory and making repairs is more costly than just seizing it.
>Russians have slightly more reason to blow it up.
I don't know about that, this might effectively put Crimea under siege. Unless they can transport enough water via rail and ship connections to make up for the 80% of the peninsula's fresh water supply that just got diverted.
if the land bridge is cut and the bridge is wreaked then they would have to ship water across the straight while also shipping all their ammo and supplies.
Again Crimea survived without a bridge and without canal for better part of a decade.
There wont be any tourists this year and
I assume civies will start to leave if they already haven't. The kerch strait is very narrow even without the bridges it shouldn't be too hard to supply with military kit. Even with the Ukies on the north Azov shore the strait is a long way away, they could storm shadow it but that makes no sense against barges.
This is true, but a lot of that water gets used for agriculture. Could still be pretty damaging, at least in the short term until they can transition back to the way they were doing things before.
You don't need a lot to do a lot. You're forgetting that every dam ever made suffers from extreme pressure on one side, and always has to deal with fissures in the cement. If you can just compromise the structure enough, mother nature will take care of the rest and destroy the dam. That's why people talk about destroying the 3 Gorges with just conventional JDAMs. Nukes wouldn't be needed because the insane water pressure would take care of the hard part.
Makes sense, I just didn't think it would wash half the dam away.
It could be a simple lack of maintenence. It's been in the middle of the front line for 7 months now. I highly doubt that's been a good situation for the dam.
well yeah, marshal planning post war Ukraine into twice the per capita GDP of Russia is just a fun and wholesome way to rub it in. In the event the war ends with part of Ukraine still occupied, well even better, you can use it as an East v West Germany style showcase of superiority.
there's a lot of money waiting to be made in the reconstructions. need i remind you the fact that the old marshal plan actually made united states boat load of money.
in fact, the west already divided the investment zones up since early last year.
that's the most oil/gas rich region. having US taking it alone would've been too on the nose. though you'd be crazy to believe US is actually sharing more than a few crumbs to Turkey.
I know a guy. He's the only one to ever do a job this big. I heard he's retired though. Maybe we can get him a crew for one last big score...
"The front of the actual dam, runs approximately 775 metres in length. The entire perimeter of the dam area is close to 2000 metres. The surface area is approximately 70,000 square metres. The pond formed by the dam is probably one metre deep, which means it would contain about 70,000 cubic metres of water"
Blatantly russians even though it harms them WAY more lol. Ukraine did this because they knew millions of idiots like you will never believe they would do it. Militarily it drowns millions of Russian equipment and kills hundreds of Russians. It also fricks over Crimea completely
>t moron
From a short term perspective it makes sense for the Russians to blow the dam. It frees them up to move the units on the other side of the river to become an emergency reserve against the counter attack. It buys them maybe two weeks where there’s no risk of a major river crossing incursion to cut off Crimea from the rest of their salient. Long term it’s not fricking great for them. Most of the flooding is on their side of the river currently and that’s a lot of prepared defenses essentially wasted. But short term gain is the Russian way.
If the offensive had been on for a few more days and it was clearly going poorly for Russia then I'd believe this more but it makes no sense for them to do it and frick over everything longterm just because of a couple probing attacks in a different sector (!!).
Russian leadership (this decision wasn't made by a colonel) which has been delusional for the entire war would not wake up to the fact that they are in a bad spot now and blow up their Crimeas lifeline which was one of the actual main reasons this war was fought in the first place
It will turn much of the up-stream area into mud flats, that'll help the Russians if they expected an amphibious operation between Nova Kakhovka and Zaporizhzhia
Thing is, if Ukraine recaptured the dam or any part of the canal the water to Crimea was going to be cut anyhow. Crimea also has its own potable water, and the canal was cut off 2014-2022, so it's not like they just cut off their drinking water supply, the canal is mainly for large-scale industry and agriculture.
Crimea costs Russia billions every year because its economy is artificial. A huge part of this is the farms and large scale agriculture that dont get water anymore. Even in 2021 Russia was still rationing out water that would often times come out polluted and this was just for drinking water in major cities.
I refuse to believe Russia wouldn't at least try to fight what would be a really stupid river crossing honestly before blowing it up and dooming Crimea to cost them even more billions
11 months ago
Anonymous
Makes sense if you assume they're panicking. Belgorod, the south, Bakhmut ukies already raiding across the river etc. The Russians are overstretched, their lines undermanned and they know they can't hold everywhere. Trying to shut down the Kherson front by blowing the dam isn't a good plan, but the Russians don't exactly have a lot of those at this point.
11 months ago
Anonymous
Like every other decision they make is a short term gain for a long term fricking.
Yeah they secured the front for atleast a month by crimea is now out of water and eventually the river up north will suddenly be crossable.
It prevents crimea from getting immedatly sieged at the cost of rendering it more uninhabitable long term requiring even more intensive supplies long term.
Now water also must be shipped in for the population.
11 months ago
Anonymous
IIRC water will be short for the population, but not unbearable so. The water imports from the Dnipro were vital for agriculture on the peninsula, not drinking water for the population.
11 months ago
Anonymous
Russia is incompetent but not completely irrational. No reason to believe that the top leadership who has always been somewhat delusional on their actual chances of winning wouldn't wait a few days to see what happens and then blow it.
11 months ago
Anonymous
Problem is that depending on your view, "a few days" is easily the difference between being bale to transfer some units from Kherson to the east in time or coming too late to prevent a catastrophic collapse of the front. People tend to change how they act when their back's to the wall.
Doubtful they probably pulled back and blew the dam.
It basically prevents any crossing efforts for weeks floods ukrainain cities and turns the russian bank into extremely defensable marshes and mud for atleast a month.
It buys them alot of time and allows them to focus elsewhere instead of worrying about just stabbing in the back from suprise river crossing.
Long term its worse for them but everything in this war shows russians have a very high time peferance.
Now Ukraine has alot troops and equipment if they were planning a landing now useless or washed out in kherson and any bridging and boats washed away.
>It wasn't the Russians who literally are occupying the dam amd rigged it to explode months ago
This is Putin trying to take the ball and go home to block the counteroffensive.
Russians blew it, pictures show where the damage is - turbine stations on the Russian side. Rig those with explosives and boom.
This is a panic move. They have no reserves so they’re hoping to buy a few days, leave a skeleton crew in place, and relocate the rest of the units south of the dam to try and stop the counter offensive that’s coming.
There are satellite constellations that would've detected an above ground nuclear blast immediately. Definitely no nukes. Probably lots of demolition charges to start, and then the water did the rest.
The US/NATO is monitoring Russia so closely that if they even begin to prepare a nuclear weapon, they’re going to be announcing it to the rest of the world like they did leading up to the start of the war. I’m sure we already know who did this, it’s not like the Nordstream pipeline where it’s underwater.
Yeah if you haven't been bowled over by a large wave or been near floodwaters you don't have an intuitive sense of just how heavy water is. That shit is terrifying. From the perspective of a dam a single hole is death as it will then be eroded and opened wider by an infinite stream of water.
lay off the estrogen and take your schizo pills
Here's a hint. Don't talk like a kiwifarms user and use kiwifarms slang if you don't want to be identified as one.
Isn't it just so infuriating saying all of these mean things, knowing that you don't know who the person you're saying to them is, knowing that they're just laughing at you? You must feel so impotent.
tbh I my gut instinct is Russia blew the dam. Consider:
1. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been looming for months, on the back of extremely lackluster winter ops for Russia.
2. Russian forces have previously tried to destroy the dam
3. The Kremlin has been threatening nooks for the duration of the war.
4. They know they can't use nooks, but they clearly have desire to escalate.
I ask you, how do you achieve WMD effects (which in Russian doctrine are apperceived to deescalate control war) without blowing up a WMD?
+ the dam provided a lot of the water for the Zaporizhzhia NPP
I'll bet that "due to the Ukrainians destroying the dam" the plant is going to go into a meltdown in the coming weeks
EU would see through this and declare military quarantine around the plant, although maybe that works in Russia's favour if they think they'll lose it anyway.
>Ukrainian offensive starts >Russians cause a nuclear disaster to force a ceasefire >Ukrainians have tasted blood and don't give up >West quickly sends large amounts of CBRN aid >Radioactive armored offensive smashing through Russian lines to secure ZNPP before shit really hits the fan
KINO KINO KINO
A nuclear meltdown at Zaporizhia is one of the worst things that could happen for Ukraine right now since it could result in allies calling for a ceasefire right as their counteroffensive is starting. They've been worried for months that Russia would try a false-flag at the nuclear powerplant, this could be it.
What do the Europeans do if Russia causes a meltdown that isn't a front-wide ceasefire that works in Russia's favour? Is it out of the realm that some/all of NATO considers it the last straw and simply goes to war in Ukraine to force Russia out? Putin may welcome that since he can withdrawl honourably having lost to NATO instead of Ukraine.
In the mind of Russia, Ukraine is a puppet state for NATO with no capacity to make independent decisions.
In some sense they are right because Ukraine does have to walk a fine line, especially in terms of how they utilize certain weapon systems, to keep up the level of support they are receiving.
Vatniks on twitter are screeching about the 'keef regime' flooding poor defenseless hohol civvies so now I know the russian Black folk blew it. It's probably a vengeance action to frick up as much shit as possible before they withdraw to shorter lines.
Of course Russians blew it, what possible reason could Ukraine have for doing it? It might not flood that much of Kherson but it's expensive electrical infrastructure and also provided a bridge over to the Russian side. There's literally not a single rational reason for Ukraine to blow it up.
That's not even to mention the size of the blast.
Whoever did it needed access to the structure, no way Ukraine snuck in a few tons of demolition charges to blow it.
Likely. They've probably gamed out their options after a successful Ukrainian offensive through Tokmak, realized they'll have to withdraw to positions in Crimea and near Mariupol, and decided to frick up the Ukrainians on the way out. I've seen speculation that it might take out the bridge near Kherson as well. Not just put a hole in it, actually pick it up and sweep it away.
Regardless this is the sort of thing you need a LOT of written, contemporaneous, reasoning to get away with.
was it a tactical nuke? honestly thats a big fricking hole.
No, the US would be screaming its head off if a tactical nuke went off. Those things have radiological signatures (there are likely monitoring stations all over Ukraine as part of the Ukrainian armed forces in addition to the stationary pre-war ones) and the US has a satellite system which can identify the unique signature that nuclear weapons have.
It was probably just a few tons of HE, maybe old 155mm shells, put inside the structure of the dam. All you need to do is create a hole and the water will do the rest, it may have taken hours for this level of damage to accumulate.
Nafogays on twatter are screeching that Russia did it.
That must mean Ukraine did it!
How about we wait for proof or at least argue using logic instead of crying about what people who know nothing are saying?
The Zaporizhzhia power plant is currently in a cold shutdown state, has been since September. I don't think there is any immediate danger of a meltdown.
If Russians could do Chernobyl accidentally, imagine the disaster they could cause on purpose
Vatniks are really fascinating creatures, they have the IQ to operate relatively advanced machinery and understand technology, but they have the judgement and impulse control of Black folk
Even if the plant is in danger because of this, there will be more than enough time for the personnel working there to make lots of noise about it. It's currently about as safe as it could be without the reactors being completely decommissioned.
the problem isn't the reactors, the problem is the spent fuel pool which without active cooling will apparently start boiling, which seems like an insane design but it's a Soviet nuclear plant
>which seems like an insane design but it's a Soviet nuclear plant
thats true of any plant. they have to stay in the pool until they are cool enough for transport to deep storage. the cooling process takes around 5 years.
11 months ago
Anonymous
And they can't just make the basin large enough to passively cool itself?
11 months ago
Anonymous
the water boils away so you have to keep pumping in new water.
if Ukraine was trying to cross the Dnipro this will make crossing the river significantly harder
otoh, the Russians will have to move their prepared fortifications back by some distance because of the flooding and will have to spend some time digging new trenches
Strategically it makes more sense for the Russians to do it, they cut off any forces in the Kherson region if they take out the dam and bridges further down. Implies Russia is genuinely spooked by the whole counter offensive idea and wanted to cut down enemy attack routes to as few as possible. Of course means they'll never get into Kherson again but I think they accepted that a long time ago.
I don't think it really is unless Russia ever intended to get over to Kherson again, which I think they've given up on at this point. Putting a big load of water between them and Ukrainian forces narrows Ukraine down to attacking from the Donbass and would make supplying any excursion close to Crimea more difficult by cutting off potential logistics routes, forcing everything to go the long way instead of cutting across the dam and bridges.
The unintended consequence of this is that any forces in Kherson that were previously guarding against a Russian offensive are now free to move. They might actually invade Russia proper over this.
Yeah but it serves Russias strengths, in that they can just pile everything into a small area. I think after the failed multiprong offensives they tried in the early days, they've decided to go back to basics and focus on just massing brute numbers by limiting their enemies tactical mobility. If they enemy can't get around your back this plays in Russia's favour of numbers.
FYI Crimea hasn't been getting any water from the river since 2014. The Russians tried to reactivate the canals in 2022 but they were destroyed from being unmaintained for so long.
they had to because if undefended the Ukrainians could sneak across and raid the Russian side, but they evacuated the villages on their side recently so I'd assume many of their troops went also.
that assumes it was the russians that did it and not a unfortunate accident from lack of maintenance on the dam and artillery damage.
They probably pulled anything back a while ago. Wouldn't need them if they planned to flood it any way since the enemy wont be coming from that direction. Have more freedom to move them up west instead.
I think they probably did this to free up troops that were guarding the area. I think there were some still there because Ukrainians were apparently harassing them with small incursions as recently as yesterday.
They probably pulled anything back a while ago. Wouldn't need them if they planned to flood it any way since the enemy wont be coming from that direction. Have more freedom to move them up west instead.
Boats are far from an ideal way to pull off a military attack, certainly if you want to move heavy gear across. The bridges and dam would be much easier for Ukrainian forces to move across.
A large scale crossing would require bridges. With boats you can only get a handful of infantry across.
They have PTS'2's
Each one can carry a truck and a field gun across, or about 30 guys (very uncomfortably).
With proper organization and using a combination of vehicles they could ferry across a battalion or so.
11 months ago
Anonymous
You'd need hundreds of them to do anything substantial, and any river crossing would be very vulnerable. Amphibious assaults really are something you should only consider if there's absolutely not other way, and even then I doubt the Ukrainians could get enough across to be effective.
11 months ago
Anonymous
10 of them means 10 vehicle. Assume a round trip takes an hour that's 24 trips per day and 240 vehicles. Roghly the number of vehicles in a battalion. With smaller shit ferrying grunts its very doable.
And yes, river crossings are hot trash. But you dont start ferrying the big stuff first - you would have to establish a foothold on the far bank first with light infantry.
>Length 11.52 m (37 ft 10 in) >length of river between Kherson and the russian side : 1.11km
Its a big boat, not a bridge, ya goddamn smooth brain.
11 months ago
Anonymous
>Assume a round trip takes an hour that's 24 trips per day and 240 vehicles.
I know the Russians are moronic, but there is no way the Russians are going to just let them do this. Assuming those things could even get across a river that deep and wide, the Ukrainians would have no logistics support once on the other side vs an enemy that does.. It'd be suicide.
11 months ago
Anonymous
oh i thought it was a bridge layer
still a dumb idea though its not like the russians would just watch this boat move slowly over to their position
11 months ago
Anonymous
>Length 11.52 m (37 ft 10 in) >length of river between Kherson and the russian side : 1.11km
11 months ago
Anonymous
They would need a lot more than trucks, field guns, and infantry for a successful offensive across the river.
11 months ago
Anonymous
Why would it have to be an offensive? Why not just a fixing action to support an offensive elsewhere?
Get a couple of battalions across and the Russians have to stay to defend. If you dont everyone on the Russian side of the river becomes a strategic reserve for stuff happening up north.
11 months ago
Anonymous
Good point, but I don't think you'd need anything on the scale you were describing to achieve that, just a couple boats of infantry crossing once in a while would be enough to keep them guessing. Seems like that was enough to scare the Russians into blowing the dam.
>Thing is, flooding goes both ways
No that's literally the point, if the Russian held bank is lower, then that area floods. The Ukrainian held bank is higher, so no flood, or minimal.
I think we are missing the bigger picture, namely the reservoir in the north disappearing, making a river crossing on the now smaller reservoir in a few weeks alot easier, the Russians are completely underprepared and a riverbed quickly dries out in the European June sun, becoming sand, which is perfect for tank movements.
Have you ever seen how quickly a creek dries out during summer? Granted it’s just the girst layers of soil, it’s still very quick as lo mg as there is no tidal movement replenishing it.
The mud and silt accumulation under this lake probably runs between 10 meters and 20 meters deep in most places. You're average "creek" might be half a meter to a meter. The lakebed doesn't just need to evaporate, all the water accumulated in the mud and silt has to drain, a process that can take years depending on a number of factors.
In this case, this part of Ukraine is a gigantic, ancient delta (from the glaciers). The reason this land is so rich for agriculture. It's also fairly level, so water takes a long time to drain out of the soil. No way this lake bed dries out before next summer, not in any way that allows for armor columns to drive across it. No, it isn't sand. It's mud and glacial till. With the proper bridging & pontooning equipment, paths could be constructed that would allow armor to drive across, but that would be mid August or October, if this year at all. It's a massive engineering project.
genius of this gif is that it is an Indian saying it, so you can imagine vatnik poo shills saying >MAYBE IT JUST COLLAPSED ON ITS OWN AND RUSSIA NOT INVOLVED?????
Give it a couple of hours. The morning poostorm from Calcutta is about to fire up. I'll bet 20 quatloos this is exactly a huge slice of the poopie incoming for today.
Honestly? People get so hung up about the dam feeding crimea that they think the russians wouldn't starve the peninsula of water to spite the Ukrainians trying to use it for the next decade or so. Even their delusional asses probably see the writing on the wall, expect to see more and more sabotage of basic civic infrastructure as the russians leave.
the ingenious part of russian defenses is any infrastructure that gets destroyed is only speeding up what would've happened in a decade anyways due to rot
And Article 5 does not state immediate declaration of war against the aggressor. It simply states that you have to do stuff to 'secure the security of the North Atlantic area'. Which does not mean declaring war on Russia. That is the final, ultimate part of the treaty. Literally 'up to military action'. So it is possible all it means is that NATO sends radiation decon to try and mitigate the issues to Poland.
not a single media outlet in the us covering this huge event, absolute insanity. i get it's late at night in the US and early morning in Ukraine, but still.
It'll probably be one of the top stories tomorrow morning, and to be honest there isn't much to report on quite yet. Maybe waiting for statements from the UKR/RUS/USA governments?
If its real I would expect to see it on ABC news in about 12 hours
They're fast, but they generally don't update outside of working hours unless its something big that affects Australians
Path of least resistance is still through eastern Ukraine, always has been. Once it became clear the Russian military managed an organized retreat from the west bank, I've never understood why people thought a major Ukrainian offensive effort would be taken ACROSS the Dnieper, which is unequivocally the strongest fortification the Russians have in.
If they cut the roads between Mariupol and Melitopol it will have the same devastating effects on supplies going to southern Ukraine.
Russia did this because they didn't want Ukraine to use the dam as a bridge. They were worried that they could lose control of their side of it relatively soon.
Yes, that's the actual reason and yes it's super moronic.
No, the fact is, Russia is flooding the banks of the Dnieper so they can hydroelectric up the whole durn country. Yes, sir, Novorossiya is gonna change. Everything's gonna be put on electricity and run on a paying basis. Out with the old spiritual mumbo jumbo, the superstitions, and the backward ways. We're gonna see a brave new world where they run everybody a wire and hook us all up to a grid. Yes, sir, a veritable age of reason. Like the one they had in France. Not a moment too soon.
I mean there are several fluff pieces of Space Marines doing just that because nobody expected them to come from the ocean. Also a scope is hardly 'tacticool'.
marines having bigger, more capable scopes on their guns to augment their built-in optics is nothing new, Devastators have had that on their lascannons and missile launcher since forever.
The camera here looks to be on the portion of the turbine building that is now destroyed, completely detached from the other half, and sitting in the water. I don't think this is a video of the dam bursting.
Couple of weeks, minimum. The elevation change of the land and any incoming rain upstream will be significant factors. Could take a couple of months for true "stabilization." You'd have to come up with an engineering definition for what type & level of "stabilization" you mean.
It's a REALLY huge lake. All the agriculture for the entire region will be affected, some of it catastrophically. All the water tables for dozens of kilometers to either side will start to lower & drain (for months & years), until the dam is rebuilt and the lake is allowed to refill ... then it will take years for the water tables to fully recover.
>so what happened in this case? >well the front fell off in this case by all means, but it's very unusual >but Comrade Colonel Kleptovich, why did the front fall off? >a bomb hit the dam >a bomb hit the dam? is that unusual? >in a warzone? chance in a million
There were actually some photos of sluice gates opened to vent huge amounts of water, and reservoir levels were at a 30 year high. Could poor maintenance have caused a collapse? Possibly.
The timing and the changing Russian responses argue that deliberate Russian detonation is a lot more likely.
They drained the reservoir abnormally low, then filled it to dangerously high levels. Negligence would have been bad enough, but this was done intentionally.
It happened like this: >Blyat Ivan, the pumps for the Crimea canal are pizdyec, how will we send water to Crimean banan farms now cyka debil? >Do not worry comrade Boris, I have developed ingenious solution to our current predicament using my powerful engineering mind >you see my freind, the canal is fed from that lake over there, which is controlled by the dam >all we need do is close gates on dam, let her fill up until water level is higher than pumps and boom, water to canal is restored!
actually, strategically speaking it also endangers the Russian position since as the (ostensible) attackers in this war they can no longer threaten Ukrainian forces from the south and now Crimea's water supply is severely diminished
Realistically, Russia was never going to retake Ukraine. I'm sure the Russian MoD won't lose any sleep over not being able to easily shell Kherson city anymore. Especially when doing such an act can potentially throw a wrench into Ukrainian plans. Again, CIVILIANS in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are the only ones majorly directly effected.
>Realistically, Russia was never going to retake Ukraine
That's not what they thought at the start though, eh? But yeah. This still proves they are totally out of gas when it comes to offensive capability and have no faith whatsoever in their defenses holding out even against a Ukrainian amphibious crossing. Because yeah, sure, they can now move their forces over to more likely avenues of attack...but so can the Ukrainians. They must be stretched majorly thin or dangerously low on morale (probably both) if their plan to resist this offensive seems to boil down to just stacking mobiks as thick as possible.
Ahh. Europe finally woke up. Got their first ciggie and espresso to go with jam and muffins. I say, let's turn the Internets and see what shit monke shat out overnight. Such a rigorous, thankless job. Absolutely brutal. Normies will never understand how brutal.
The river Ukraine has to cross got a bit wider. If they were going to cross over there anyways
This is going to sound moronic, but what if they're doing it to disrupt defensive positions on the other side of the river so they can send small boats in? Think pic related.
That would be kino as frick
YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
NATO has secretly been training the Ukrainian brown water fleet.
There were some crossings reported near Kherson earlier. If this is real, maybe Russia did it to make it harder to establish a bridgehead? Though, this is the reservoir that supplies fresh water to Crimea isn't it?
Crimea received about 80% of fresh resources from the Dnieper water supplied through the North Crimean Canal
Russians are claiming this so I fricking doubt it.
The source for this is like one telegram message so I doubt it happened
I STAND CORRECTED
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1665905176140554243?s=20
It should have gotten to Kherson by now right? It's only 40miles away..... i'd think we'd get something out of Kherson by now.
Its definitely the dam i even went and looked myself everything adds up. Absolutely insane
Water follows the path of least resistance. The left bank is lower, Kherson itself wouldn't see much.
Who actually profits from it?
Russian defenses on the east bank get swept away?
Ukrainian beachheads get swapped away?
Zapo NPP gets less coolant?
Crimea gets less fresh water?
WHO ACTUALLY GETS A TACTICAL ADVANTAGE??
Has flooding ever been used for offensive actions?
I think it’s the Russians using this, flooding must be defensive.
Russia would never do this simply because it fricks Crimeas water supply which was a huge part of why the war was fought in the first place. Ukies get the advantage of russians scrambling around trying to save themselves from drowning since they will be the ones more effected by this and they can also get great optics from this by saying Russia did it
This works off the assumption that Russia thinks it can hold Crimea.
If Russia didn't think that, they wouldn't still be going on offensives.
>which was a huge part of why the war was fought in the first place.
Yes, like demilitarizing Ukraine and stopping NATO expansion. The stated reasons for this war by Putin/Russia are all fake. Don't know why people still assume Russians to state the truth or behave like rational actors. Besides, buying some desalination plants is a shitload cheaper than stsrting a war, no matter how quick you think you will win it.
Putin simply wanted to go down in history as one of the Greats. Russians wanted to destroy their neighboring inferior "little brothers", to make an example to the U.S. and other wayward subjects, as well as punish Ukrainians for daring to leave the Russian empire.
I'm pretty sure Crimea hasn't been receiving water since last year
>Has flooding ever been used for offensive actions?
Battle of Xiapi
Takamatsu Castle
Oshi Castle
Any non siege modern western example?
Might as well post the battle of Isengard
…
Omg the Ukies blew it to emulate the battle of isengard and flooding orc trenches, didn’t they?
Why don't you study WW1, moron.
Ah yes the famous dam bustings of WW1 used for big offensive movements, you fricking double Black person
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Yser
On 25 October, the German pressure on the Belgians was so great that a decision was taken to inundate the Belgian front line. After an abortive attempt on 21 October, the Belgians managed to open the sluices at Nieuwpoort during the nights of 26–30 October, during high tides, steadily raising the water level until an impassable flooded area was created of about one mi (2 km) wide, stretching as far south as Diksmuide.
Not offensively you functionally illiterate troglodyte
The goal was always offensive use of flooding.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise
comes closest but even in that context it makes more sense for the Russians to do it
Also supports the notion that the Russians did it
And the Germans retreated because the flooding was BEHIND THEM and if the Allies attacked they would be trapped
The more modern example would be the Sino-Jap conflict of which the Chinese blew the levees on yellow river and killed almost a million of their own people just to stop Japanese offensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Yellow_River_flood
Yes, which also is a defensive action, I was asking for examples where it was used offensively.
I know the brits busted dams in WW2 to frick with German electricity production but not to prepare for offensive movements
WW2 dam busters
Ah a fellow musou enjoyer
Russia would rather turn Crimea into an island wasteland than risk Ukraine taking it.
It will make crossing the river harder, but the Ukies simply do not have the capabilities to actually do that in force anyway.
I mean, we call it a river but look at it. Crossing that is pretty close to am amphibious landing operation, and then you're stuck with pontoon bridges that connnect to a few known crossing points.
I mean OK the Germans did it in WW2 so it's obviously possible, and apparently the Russians do worry about it to some degree because they did put up defenses on their side..
All in all I'D say it'S a tactical advantage for the Russians becasue tehy are on teh defensive and this mkaes attacking across teh river more difficult.
And in the long run it fricks over Crimea's agriculture some more. Also, it cuts the water supply that keeps the nuclear power plant cooled.
Both of which Russia curretnly controls. So unless Russia likes damaging their own stuff, the conclusion here would be that they expect to not control Crimean agriculture and the power plant at some point in the future.
Welp.
>Has flooding ever been used for offensive actions?
617 Squadron would like a frickin' word m8
Some important context is the scale of this dam's reservoir: 15+ cubic kilometers versus 10 currently stored in Lake Meade (Hoover Dam) versus 0.135 + 0.199 cubic kilometers released by Operation Chastise.
honestly no idea. both sides are quite incompetent at times.
It's entire possible that the dam simply gave out on its own, it took several hits during the kherson offensive and I dont see either side having a good reason to blow it now
Maybe the stress from thermal expansion due to rising temperatures pushed it over the edge or something
No way this is a coincidence, just as the Ukranian offensive seems to be kicking off.
On 2ch (Russian PrepHole) 9/10 think it was the Russians and are gloating about how clever a move it was.
Wasn't the general consensus that the Ukrainians were going to be most likely attacking from up north down towards Melitopol/Mariupol? Blowing the dam up seems like something that would cause more problems than it would prevent.
It allows Russians to concentrate their forces on the defence. Now they don't have to watch the Kherson flank at all, and if they need to retreat toward Crimea their flank will be covered as they go.
>https://cornucopia.se/2022/10/worst-case-modelling-for-nova-kakhovka-dam-break/
this website is saying it'd take one of the largest non-nuclear explosions to blow it
The entire dam had to have been literally packed with explosives to do that level of damage. You can see the center of the dam has disappeared entirely as the water rushing out is completely smooth and free of ripples because there's literally no structure left to make the water turbulent.
Yeah, the ukranians are actual terrorists for doing this
>The entire dam had to have been literally packed with explosives to do that level of damage.
Okay in that case who was in control of the dam? That must have been the one who did it, as the other wouldn't have had the capacity.
Russia controlled the pump houses, which are pretty fricked.
>Has flooding ever been used for offensive actions?
Yeah, WW3
This is at best a wash, or tie goes to the side that doesn't intend to hold the area.
If this was the Russians, I can see this working to their advantage in Zaporizhia, but I don't get it for Crimea. I wonder if the Russians tried to catch Ukrainains crossing downriver.
the left side of the kherson river will become utterly impassible for a long while, even with bridging equipment. It was swampy before, now it will be a shallow river delta.
the potentiality of a nuclear disaster in the south is as "salt the earth in retreat" as it gets.
Any occupation on the sea of Azov coastline would be attrited down due to no safe permanent defensive lines,
supply lines would have to extend through or around the region, without smaller local storage.
As I understand it, there is no real potentiality for a nuclear disaster. This is a panic move by the Russians to prevent a possible crossing so they can concentrate their forces north and east, and maybe cover their retreat into Crimea if necessary. It also shows that they seem to have no intention of holding on to that territory very long either, since long-term blowing the dam fricks them.
I believe you're correct. The ZPP reservoir is upstream, 140 km to the northwest.
It's the same reservoir
This is the lowest of six dams on that stretch of the Dnipro; I believe the ZNPP is fed by a closer one.
If not do you think Putin was trying for a "golly, the nuclear plant is in danger, I guess NATO will need to broker a cease-fire for me"?
Go look at Google Earth. There's nothing between Nova Kakhova and Zaporizhzhya NPP.
Me, I profit from it.
Huh. I really didn’t expect the dam to get blown. Seems bad for both sides of the river?
>Huh. I really didn’t expect the dam to get blown. Seems bad for both sides of the river?
I remember like a year ago or 6 months ago Ukies were terrified of this happening. Then I kinda forgot about it.
That's a big frickin hole, and a god damn shitload of water. What could have done this? Neither side has missiles big enough, I doubt aircraft can get close. SOF planting charges?
You don't need a lot to do a lot. You're forgetting that every dam ever made suffers from extreme pressure on one side, and always has to deal with fissures in the cement. If you can just compromise the structure enough, mother nature will take care of the rest and destroy the dam. That's why people talk about destroying the 3 Gorges with just conventional JDAMs. Nukes wouldn't be needed because the insane water pressure would take care of the hard part.
The fact that the water pouring out is entering laminar flow has to mean that there's literally nothing left of the dam structure to make it turbulent in that area. That wall is GONE.
And that it's moving incredibly fast. Jesus the amount of water and the forces involved is really something to behold.
I find the Russian telegrams usually exaggerate but rarely outright make shit up
>but rarely outright make shit up
something something own power
>I find the Russian telegrams usually exaggerate but rarely outright make shit up
Yes it is so in Telegram group Incest Slave Z many things are shown that the western Media dare not!
isnt that the dam that provides fresh water to Crimea?
Yes, if the dam goes, Crimea is fricked for water supply.
Not only that, it also provides a lot of the coolant water for the zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Remember this war was start to "help" Russians in Ukraine. Putin did a real good job helping them 'bout as good as he has done helping the Russian Federation.
>Helped Russian speakers in Donbas,etc by entirely depopulating them by drafting them for human wave attacks
He then proceeded to help the Russian-speaking majorities in Kharkov by shelling them immediately and continuously for the entire war.
Also the Russian speaking majorities in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, etc have been thoroughly helped.
Behold: Aid to Russian speakers by King Monke.
Seems like its happening.
https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1665891113582972930
Hmm, that seems bad.
>https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1665891113582972930
very neutral
Dude is a zigger. Don't believe a fricking thing he posts.
That damn is fricking BUSTED
What would it take to frick up all that reinforced concrete?
Less explosive than you might think applied on the right spot.. the British dam buster bombs were based off of 55 gallon drums… not tiny, but compare it to something like a tall boy…
Some Soviet developed bombs could do it. The dam buster bomb in question had a boom equal to nearly 10,000ibs of TNT(they used 6,600ibs of Torpex).
A FAB-9000 has nearly 20k Ibs of boom, a pretty high power level, but I don't think they're still in service with Russia, maybe Ukraine still has some.
BETAB-500s are kind of small by explosive weight at 216ibs, but are designed to penetrate concrete bunkers and crater runways, and dams have been destroyed by as little as 280ibs of TNT.
FAB-500M-62s have at most 660ibs of boom assuming that none of it has been sacrificed for the glide/guidance kit and are in very common usage by the Russians, with Ukrainian officials saying they receive 10-20 each day.
KAB-1500 family has the most suitable bombs the Russians have for it, several being specificly designed for penetrating through concrete, although the KAB-1500 family of bombs is in short supply. The most suitable oof them, KAB-1500L-EX, is for destroying buried nuke silos.
Dam itself was probably built pretty tough. Despite planning to fight any scenario for WWIII offensively the Soviets prepared extensively for nuclear and conventional defensive warfare within the Union in their construction.
Planning like that is why most of the commie-blocks in the Fort of Bahkmut are still standing, though ruined.
Oh, and a missile could probably do it. Air raid alarms these past six hours all over Ukraine, with a bunch of arrivals.
>Arthur Morgan
That guy is a common Russian Disinfo agent.
>more terrorist attacks from Ukraine
I can’t support this shit
>muh terrorism
Not what that word means, pidor.
>romanov_92
So that's a ~90% chance it's bullshit.
dam’s fricked
Jeeeesus Christ.
Retvrning to tradition.
Ass status?
recursively self-contained
So this ends the counter offensive
it was never going to come across the river
HOLY FRICKING SHIET but who profits from this? Russian defenders flooding the area or ukrainians preparing something?
If Russia did this they'd get shooting their own foot. Their defensive areas and fortifications in that part of Kherson are in the flood affected zone. As they sit on the lower bank.
Ukies most likely have less they need to defend and can dedicated more units on other fronts since any immediete threat of a dnipro crossing by Russians is gonna take a while to materialise.
It doesn't make any sense for the Ukrainians to blow it up since it might, uh, flood Kherson. It doesn't make a lot of sense for the Russians to do it either though since Crimea's water supply is fricked, unless they don't intend to keep it, or have opted to just wreck Ukraine at this point and slow the offensive as much as possible.
kherson is slightly uphill
Can't vouch for this but apparently depicts what would happen with a dam burst
I don't think this benefits anyone
The key is to figure out who it harms the least. I think Ukraine might be in a better position here, but that really depends on how many people are living in the parts of Kherson that are about to be flooded. Russians, on the other hand, have lots of important defenses in the floodplain, and Crimea relied heavily on this reservoir for fresh water for irrigation.
>destroy dam
>conflict is suddenly labeled a "humanitarian crisis"
>Fortunate Son starts blaring in the distance
So they just straight up kill a few thousand people to buy themselves a week at most... they really are fricking subhumans
>kill a few thousand people
This is why we can throw out the Ukies doing it as a theory. Politically they couldn't harm their own people like this, the truth would come out and they know it. Putin OTOH doesn't care.
They would theoretically have several hours to evacuate people even once the water was on it's way. If they planned this they could have started before the dam burst. Though we probably would've heard something about that, unless they were blocking all communications somehow.
There are Ukrainian citizens on the Russian controlled bank.
True. It just seems like such a short sighted, poorly thought out move for the Russians. I guess I should have learned not to expect anything less by now.
Oh please, spare us your trannoid logic. The explosion was on the Russian side. That's enough.
>trannoid
Oh just go back to kiwifarms you pathetic piece of shit. Leave this discussion to the adults.
>kiwifarms
No idea what that is nor do I care to find out. Most normal people hate you pedos
>homosexuals see someone use phrase they don't like online; have schizo meltdown over nothing
a tale as old as time
Go and dilate your stink ditch, troon.
We get it, kid, you want to frick trannies and you've come here to tell us. Now go leave and jerk off to bald men with veganas or whatever you pathetic shits do there.
>We
Responding to the wrong dude my homie
Looking through the replies I must have clicked on
by mistake as I am phonegay posting rn. My bad.
>Implying Russia wouldn't just drown their disposable mobliks to preserve opsec
Doming the flooding here will be waist level, not drown level, and knee level in kherson at best.
Hope they don't have ammo depots at the front
Out of curiosity, does anyone know how many people have moved back into Kherson? I wonder if the Ukrainians felt that flooding it was worth flooding Russian defenses on the other side and cutting off the water supply to Crimea at this stage of the counteroffensive.
I call glowies on this one. There is no way Russians can be this moronic. They would be inviting for more trouble if we take in consideration that Power Plant is going to get fricked, causing an ecological disaster that might flood into other parts of Europe.
And the Ukranians can't be that moronic to do that..right?
>There is no way Russians can be this moronic.
Dangerous words
>who profits from this
Both sides get fricked. Ukraine gets fricked more.
Ukraine
>Has to divert resources to rescue operations
>Any crossing operations are completely scuttled
>Lost incredibly valuable infrastructure and received shittons of internal damage they didn't need to take from the flood
>Kherson fricked
>Their artillery gets forced back south of the dam
>Landed infantry on the east bank in danger/dead if they're still there and couldn't get out in time
Russia
>Any hope of restoring water supply to Crimea is gone
>The east bank is lower so they just lost a shitton of land and villages and their forces get pushed back further than they already had been by Ukraine taking the west bank with superior artillery
Russia basically only loses hope of getting back shit they'd already lost and has to pull back some more. For Ukraine it's a costly clusterfrick.
There will be negligible flooding on the Ukrainian conteolled portion of the river.
>There will be negligible flooding on the Ukrainian controlled portion of the river.
"Negligible" relative the total area getting fricked, which is gonna be big. Parts of Kherson are still gonna get fricked.
Having part of a major city end up underwater is bad actually.
Yeah but Ukraine's been running DRG sneaki ops in the delta area for months, those islands are just going to be totally awash.
"Less than the other bank" is pretty different from "negligible"
Yes but the other bank is empty land they can just walk away from and it turns into defensible marsh.
Ukraine side is vital crossing docks and cites lost.
And no dry land to try to cross into.
For now its a total russian victory
>The east bank is lower so they just lost a shitton of land and villages and their forces get pushed back further than they already had been by Ukraine taking the west bank with superior artillery
This could be a potential benefit for Russia, at least in the short term. This frees up the troops that were defending the banks of the Dnipro from Ukrainian crossings.
On the Russia demerit list this will be a political/PR catastrophe.
I mean, yeah. But it's not like Russia's reputation can tank much further at this point.
Ria Novosti, Russian state-affiliated media, was denying that it happened a little less than two hours ago: Mayor of occupied Nova Kakhovka tells RIA Novosti that the dam is fine, everything is "quiet", and "normal everywhere".
40 minutes ago: Mayor "corrects" his story to say that, actually, Ukrainians shelled the hydroelectric station overnight.
I think at this point we can safely point the finger at the Russians, who mined the dam in their territory and blew it up.
Yeah, if the Russians are already pointing fingers at the Ukrainians for it, you know they're lying. They want the immediate tactical advantages of blowing the dam without the humanitarian fallout. Typical Russian MO.
What's darkly humorous is that the dam break supposedly happened at 2:35am local time. The Russian-appointed quisling mayor was on Telegram as late as 6:27am saying "nope, all is quiet here" and later corrected his story to "night strikes on the dam".
RF state media now saying it collapsed due to "damage".
>Tactical implications
hohol dreams of crossing are over.
they have no choice but to try to move across prepared kill zones for them where russians eagerly expect them.
>prepared kill zones
Ive heard this during Kharkiv offensive too
What is actualy over is water supply to Crimea and cooling the nuclear power station.
Expect ziggers running home to Rostoc soon-ish, leaving behind scorched earth is their classic move afterall.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1665907854157680641
Critical flooding level is expected in about 6 hours
Source is Sushko so take it with a grain of salt
One guy in the replies there posted this interesting map and short article for the affected areas of the flooding
https://cornucopia.se/2022/10/worst-case-modelling-for-nova-kakhovka-dam-break/
The dam looks fricked. The water levels don't seem to be a huge difference in height so I'm not sure how much it would take to stabilize the situation long-term and what type of damage there will be downstream. Also not sure how badly it will frick up water for the powerplant. Russia evacuated civilians on the south bank a while ago, so that might be evidence of planning. Russia wants to inflict economic damage on Ukraine, and blowing the bridge hurts Ukraine, but blowing the bridge also fricks over Russian controlled Crimea.
Russia is claiming Ukraine did it, but Russia lies about everything. Blowing the bridge slows Ukraine from advancing into Kherson from across river but it also fricks over Russian defensive positions on south bank. Blowing the bridge might trap Russian troops deployed to south bank who can't leave due to flooding.
Whoever seems more prepared for the bridge being blown is likely who did it.
The Reservoir behind the dam has a capacity about half that of Lake Powell or Mead, and was at capacity last month....
I have no idea what that means for the nuclear plant, damage, downstream effects, etc..
If Russia did this Europe will freak out at the risk to the nuke plant, no?
Apparently the nuclear plant uses mostly groundwater for cooling, so it's not really at risk.
I don't think the Ukrainians were seriously considering a full scale river crossing, and I doubt Russia would blow the dam just because of the smaller incursions that did happen.
who the frick actually benefits from this?
If Ukraine blew it up, they denied themselves a potential river crossing and may have potentially fricked over the Zaphorizhia NPP, meaning more of Ukraine becomes irradiated wasteland.
If Russia did it they just fricked over Crimea's water supply and just washed away a shitload of towns on the riverbanks that are under their control.
Russians have slightly more reason to blow it up.
If they’re retreating, they’ll salt the earth their entire path home.
To Ukraine, this is their original territory and making repairs is more costly than just seizing it.
>Russians have slightly more reason to blow it up.
I don't know about that, this might effectively put Crimea under siege. Unless they can transport enough water via rail and ship connections to make up for the 80% of the peninsula's fresh water supply that just got diverted.
Crimea survived between 2014 and 2022 without.
they were transporting it
if the land bridge is cut and the bridge is wreaked then they would have to ship water across the straight while also shipping all their ammo and supplies.
Again Crimea survived without a bridge and without canal for better part of a decade.
There wont be any tourists this year and
I assume civies will start to leave if they already haven't. The kerch strait is very narrow even without the bridges it shouldn't be too hard to supply with military kit. Even with the Ukies on the north Azov shore the strait is a long way away, they could storm shadow it but that makes no sense against barges.
This is true, but a lot of that water gets used for agriculture. Could still be pretty damaging, at least in the short term until they can transition back to the way they were doing things before.
Makes sense, I just didn't think it would wash half the dam away.
if Russia expects to lose the area sooner or later what do they care.
The Russian military is like a cornered rat right now. They are going to do everything they can to disrupt Ukraine, because they have no other option.
It could be a simple lack of maintenence. It's been in the middle of the front line for 7 months now. I highly doubt that's been a good situation for the dam.
dams don't just do that on their own
although it would be pretty funny if it did
dams are a cement block moron. the hoover dam doesnt blow up every 7 months
It's been at record levels for like 3 months with water going over the spillways
>meaning more of Ukraine becomes irradiated wasteland
>t. gets all his info about nuclear power from Fallout
Dear God, Ukrainian infrastructure is going to be fricked when this is over
Western construction companies are gonna be raking it in hand over fist for a decade or more.
Half of France, BeNeLux and all of Germany was FUBAR in 1945.
They pretty much rebuilt everything in 10 years.
*with infinite burgerbucks
well yeah, marshal planning post war Ukraine into twice the per capita GDP of Russia is just a fun and wholesome way to rub it in. In the event the war ends with part of Ukraine still occupied, well even better, you can use it as an East v West Germany style showcase of superiority.
Marshal Plan 2.0
And compromised Russian stooges will oppose it again, just like they did 80 years ago.
there's a lot of money waiting to be made in the reconstructions. need i remind you the fact that the old marshal plan actually made united states boat load of money.
in fact, the west already divided the investment zones up since early last year.
>expecting the US to be okay with sharing a region when Switzerland and Canada each get their own
>Ireland off alone in the corner with an almost entirely undamaged region
that's the most oil/gas rich region. having US taking it alone would've been too on the nose. though you'd be crazy to believe US is actually sharing more than a few crumbs to Turkey.
I want a detailed accounting of what Ireland is doing to rebuild Ukraine.
It's going to plant many potatoes, and also blow up a bus in front of the British embassy.
When will Amerikkka disavow these terroristic acts?
I'm putting together a team...
I know a guy. He's the only one to ever do a job this big. I heard he's retired though. Maybe we can get him a crew for one last big score...
"The front of the actual dam, runs approximately 775 metres in length. The entire perimeter of the dam area is close to 2000 metres. The surface area is approximately 70,000 square metres. The pond formed by the dam is probably one metre deep, which means it would contain about 70,000 cubic metres of water"
https://www.pc.gc.ca/pn-np/nt/woodbuffalo/nature/beaver_gallery?wbdisable=true
We're gonna need a bigger beaver.
what the frick did you homosexuals just do?
we were storing ammo inside the dam and i had a little oopsy woopsie while smoking a cigarette please understand
I farted and lit a match because it stunk
That's concerning
Is this going to be another Nordstream situation where no one clames responsibility?
Nah it’s blatantly the Russians though they won’t claim it.
Blatantly russians even though it harms them WAY more lol. Ukraine did this because they knew millions of idiots like you will never believe they would do it. Militarily it drowns millions of Russian equipment and kills hundreds of Russians. It also fricks over Crimea completely
millions of dollars**
>t moron
From a short term perspective it makes sense for the Russians to blow the dam. It frees them up to move the units on the other side of the river to become an emergency reserve against the counter attack. It buys them maybe two weeks where there’s no risk of a major river crossing incursion to cut off Crimea from the rest of their salient. Long term it’s not fricking great for them. Most of the flooding is on their side of the river currently and that’s a lot of prepared defenses essentially wasted. But short term gain is the Russian way.
If the offensive had been on for a few more days and it was clearly going poorly for Russia then I'd believe this more but it makes no sense for them to do it and frick over everything longterm just because of a couple probing attacks in a different sector (!!).
Russian leadership (this decision wasn't made by a colonel) which has been delusional for the entire war would not wake up to the fact that they are in a bad spot now and blow up their Crimeas lifeline which was one of the actual main reasons this war was fought in the first place
It will turn much of the up-stream area into mud flats, that'll help the Russians if they expected an amphibious operation between Nova Kakhovka and Zaporizhzhia
Thing is, if Ukraine recaptured the dam or any part of the canal the water to Crimea was going to be cut anyhow. Crimea also has its own potable water, and the canal was cut off 2014-2022, so it's not like they just cut off their drinking water supply, the canal is mainly for large-scale industry and agriculture.
They cut cheap drinking water supply and unlike 2014 Russia can't provide drinking water from salt water anymore
Crimea costs Russia billions every year because its economy is artificial. A huge part of this is the farms and large scale agriculture that dont get water anymore. Even in 2021 Russia was still rationing out water that would often times come out polluted and this was just for drinking water in major cities.
I refuse to believe Russia wouldn't at least try to fight what would be a really stupid river crossing honestly before blowing it up and dooming Crimea to cost them even more billions
Makes sense if you assume they're panicking. Belgorod, the south, Bakhmut ukies already raiding across the river etc. The Russians are overstretched, their lines undermanned and they know they can't hold everywhere. Trying to shut down the Kherson front by blowing the dam isn't a good plan, but the Russians don't exactly have a lot of those at this point.
Like every other decision they make is a short term gain for a long term fricking.
Yeah they secured the front for atleast a month by crimea is now out of water and eventually the river up north will suddenly be crossable.
It prevents crimea from getting immedatly sieged at the cost of rendering it more uninhabitable long term requiring even more intensive supplies long term.
Now water also must be shipped in for the population.
IIRC water will be short for the population, but not unbearable so. The water imports from the Dnipro were vital for agriculture on the peninsula, not drinking water for the population.
Russia is incompetent but not completely irrational. No reason to believe that the top leadership who has always been somewhat delusional on their actual chances of winning wouldn't wait a few days to see what happens and then blow it.
Problem is that depending on your view, "a few days" is easily the difference between being bale to transfer some units from Kherson to the east in time or coming too late to prevent a catastrophic collapse of the front. People tend to change how they act when their back's to the wall.
You're a complete fricking moron if you think causing floods doesn't slow down the ukrainians. Yeah right bro, that doesn't benefit russia at all, lol
Weren't the Russians in control of the dam?
Doubtful they probably pulled back and blew the dam.
It basically prevents any crossing efforts for weeks floods ukrainain cities and turns the russian bank into extremely defensable marshes and mud for atleast a month.
It buys them alot of time and allows them to focus elsewhere instead of worrying about just stabbing in the back from suprise river crossing.
Long term its worse for them but everything in this war shows russians have a very high time peferance.
Now Ukraine has alot troops and equipment if they were planning a landing now useless or washed out in kherson and any bridging and boats washed away.
>It wasn't the Russians who literally are occupying the dam amd rigged it to explode months ago
This is Putin trying to take the ball and go home to block the counteroffensive.
If it was Putin or not, take it for granted that the Monke King will accuse the NATO of falseflagging.
Big implications for Crimea
Big implications for the nuclear plant
Russians blew it, pictures show where the damage is - turbine stations on the Russian side. Rig those with explosives and boom.
This is a panic move. They have no reserves so they’re hoping to buy a few days, leave a skeleton crew in place, and relocate the rest of the units south of the dam to try and stop the counter offensive that’s coming.
Russians are trying to shore up their left flank.
The shore certainly will move up their left flank
was it a tactical nuke? honestly thats a big fricking hole.
Frick no.
There would be reports of radiation being detected, not to mention the damage really isn't even close to what a small nuke could do.
no baby nuke?
baby nukes give off radiation, they also send of very distinct gama-rays in a double flash. They can be seen from space.
Dams will rip themselves apart once you put a hole in it, the initial bomb probably wasn't that big.
There are satellite constellations that would've detected an above ground nuclear blast immediately. Definitely no nukes. Probably lots of demolition charges to start, and then the water did the rest.
The US/NATO is monitoring Russia so closely that if they even begin to prepare a nuclear weapon, they’re going to be announcing it to the rest of the world like they did leading up to the start of the war. I’m sure we already know who did this, it’s not like the Nordstream pipeline where it’s underwater.
Calling it now: the CIA blew up the dam
It's a big dam
4U
UUUU
Nah, conventional bombs are enough to blow a dam. Just weaken the structure and the millions of tons of water will push the dam over.
Yeah if you haven't been bowled over by a large wave or been near floodwaters you don't have an intuitive sense of just how heavy water is. That shit is terrifying. From the perspective of a dam a single hole is death as it will then be eroded and opened wider by an infinite stream of water.
Here's a hint. Don't talk like a kiwifarms user and use kiwifarms slang if you don't want to be identified as one.
Here's a hint: have a nice day moron
Isn't it just so infuriating saying all of these mean things, knowing that you don't know who the person you're saying to them is, knowing that they're just laughing at you? You must feel so impotent.
LMAO, seethe more, kiwigay.
tbh I my gut instinct is Russia blew the dam. Consider:
1. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been looming for months, on the back of extremely lackluster winter ops for Russia.
2. Russian forces have previously tried to destroy the dam
3. The Kremlin has been threatening nooks for the duration of the war.
4. They know they can't use nooks, but they clearly have desire to escalate.
I ask you, how do you achieve WMD effects (which in Russian doctrine are apperceived to deescalate control war) without blowing up a WMD?
So what other dams can they threaten to blow up after this? (in an escalate to deescalate scenario)
+ the dam provided a lot of the water for the Zaporizhzhia NPP
I'll bet that "due to the Ukrainians destroying the dam" the plant is going to go into a meltdown in the coming weeks
EU would see through this and declare military quarantine around the plant, although maybe that works in Russia's favour if they think they'll lose it anyway.
Zapo's reactors are all shut down and a decent part of the cooling comes form ground water.
>Ukrainian offensive starts
>Russians cause a nuclear disaster to force a ceasefire
>Ukrainians have tasted blood and don't give up
>West quickly sends large amounts of CBRN aid
>Radioactive armored offensive smashing through Russian lines to secure ZNPP before shit really hits the fan
KINO KINO KINO
The lid of Tom Clancy's casket would pop off from the strength of his postmortem boner
>Russia flips the table and nukes every bridge over the Dniper
>Zelensky comes on TV in a MOPP suit and carrying a rifle, calling for jihad
A nuclear meltdown at Zaporizhia is one of the worst things that could happen for Ukraine right now since it could result in allies calling for a ceasefire right as their counteroffensive is starting. They've been worried for months that Russia would try a false-flag at the nuclear powerplant, this could be it.
It makes no sense for Ukraine to do this.
What do the Europeans do if Russia causes a meltdown that isn't a front-wide ceasefire that works in Russia's favour? Is it out of the realm that some/all of NATO considers it the last straw and simply goes to war in Ukraine to force Russia out? Putin may welcome that since he can withdrawl honourably having lost to NATO instead of Ukraine.
That's stupid, they can call all they want but Ukraine doesn't have to listen.
In the mind of Russia, Ukraine is a puppet state for NATO with no capacity to make independent decisions.
In some sense they are right because Ukraine does have to walk a fine line, especially in terms of how they utilize certain weapon systems, to keep up the level of support they are receiving.
>it’s real
Holy shit
Vatniks on twitter are screeching about the 'keef regime' flooding poor defenseless hohol civvies so now I know the russian Black folk blew it. It's probably a vengeance action to frick up as much shit as possible before they withdraw to shorter lines.
Of course Russians blew it, what possible reason could Ukraine have for doing it? It might not flood that much of Kherson but it's expensive electrical infrastructure and also provided a bridge over to the Russian side. There's literally not a single rational reason for Ukraine to blow it up.
That's not even to mention the size of the blast.
Whoever did it needed access to the structure, no way Ukraine snuck in a few tons of demolition charges to blow it.
Likely. They've probably gamed out their options after a successful Ukrainian offensive through Tokmak, realized they'll have to withdraw to positions in Crimea and near Mariupol, and decided to frick up the Ukrainians on the way out. I've seen speculation that it might take out the bridge near Kherson as well. Not just put a hole in it, actually pick it up and sweep it away.
Regardless this is the sort of thing you need a LOT of written, contemporaneous, reasoning to get away with.
No, the US would be screaming its head off if a tactical nuke went off. Those things have radiological signatures (there are likely monitoring stations all over Ukraine as part of the Ukrainian armed forces in addition to the stationary pre-war ones) and the US has a satellite system which can identify the unique signature that nuclear weapons have.
It was probably just a few tons of HE, maybe old 155mm shells, put inside the structure of the dam. All you need to do is create a hole and the water will do the rest, it may have taken hours for this level of damage to accumulate.
Nafogays on twatter are screeching that Russia did it.
That must mean Ukraine did it!
How about we wait for proof or at least argue using logic instead of crying about what people who know nothing are saying?
I want to play poker with you
You people are a treat, you know?
evacuation already started
The Zaporizhzhia power plant is currently in a cold shutdown state, has been since September. I don't think there is any immediate danger of a meltdown.
If Russians could do Chernobyl accidentally, imagine the disaster they could cause on purpose
Vatniks are really fascinating creatures, they have the IQ to operate relatively advanced machinery and understand technology, but they have the judgement and impulse control of Black folk
Even if the plant is in danger because of this, there will be more than enough time for the personnel working there to make lots of noise about it. It's currently about as safe as it could be without the reactors being completely decommissioned.
Nuclear meltdown imminent?
The plant is upstream from the dam, it will be fine.
that's the problem moron, the plant's cooling water is now rapidly chasing the moskva
The river isn't going to go away just because the dam is gone.
The plant is barely operating anyway, the whole panic over it is greatly overstated.
the problem isn't the reactors, the problem is the spent fuel pool which without active cooling will apparently start boiling, which seems like an insane design but it's a Soviet nuclear plant
>which seems like an insane design but it's a Soviet nuclear plant
thats true of any plant. they have to stay in the pool until they are cool enough for transport to deep storage. the cooling process takes around 5 years.
And they can't just make the basin large enough to passively cool itself?
the water boils away so you have to keep pumping in new water.
will it?
if Ukraine was trying to cross the Dnipro this will make crossing the river significantly harder
otoh, the Russians will have to move their prepared fortifications back by some distance because of the flooding and will have to spend some time digging new trenches
who's worse off?
I don't know if a Ukrainian river crossing was ever going to happen
But the joke is that the Russians deemed it possible, and enough of a threat.
Russia has a proclivity for worrying about the wrong things, see: this entire war
Ukraine immediately, but Russia in the long term. This was very much a desperation move to slow down any advance
Unless proof comes out otherwise I think the ziggers did this. No way the Ukkies would flood the Kherson region right after they took the place
Strategically it makes more sense for the Russians to do it, they cut off any forces in the Kherson region if they take out the dam and bridges further down. Implies Russia is genuinely spooked by the whole counter offensive idea and wanted to cut down enemy attack routes to as few as possible. Of course means they'll never get into Kherson again but I think they accepted that a long time ago.
Tactically-operationally helpful for Russia. Strategically it's a disaster for Russia.
I don't think it really is unless Russia ever intended to get over to Kherson again, which I think they've given up on at this point. Putting a big load of water between them and Ukrainian forces narrows Ukraine down to attacking from the Donbass and would make supplying any excursion close to Crimea more difficult by cutting off potential logistics routes, forcing everything to go the long way instead of cutting across the dam and bridges.
The unintended consequence of this is that any forces in Kherson that were previously guarding against a Russian offensive are now free to move. They might actually invade Russia proper over this.
Yeah but it serves Russias strengths, in that they can just pile everything into a small area. I think after the failed multiprong offensives they tried in the early days, they've decided to go back to basics and focus on just massing brute numbers by limiting their enemies tactical mobility. If they enemy can't get around your back this plays in Russia's favour of numbers.
FYI Crimea hasn't been getting any water from the river since 2014. The Russians tried to reactivate the canals in 2022 but they were destroyed from being unmaintained for so long.
flood model: russian side is fricked. Parts of kherson closest to the river will flood and the inhulets river swell.
Did the Russians have many troops/fortifications on the south bank?
they had to because if undefended the Ukrainians could sneak across and raid the Russian side, but they evacuated the villages on their side recently so I'd assume many of their troops went also.
that assumes it was the russians that did it and not a unfortunate accident from lack of maintenance on the dam and artillery damage.
I think they probably did this to free up troops that were guarding the area. I think there were some still there because Ukrainians were apparently harassing them with small incursions as recently as yesterday.
cant leave it completely open, else wise the Ukrainians would know something was afoot.
Thing is, flooding goes both ways. If you have defensive fighting positions along the bank, they get flooded too.
They probably pulled anything back a while ago. Wouldn't need them if they planned to flood it any way since the enemy wont be coming from that direction. Have more freedom to move them up west instead.
Thing about water is that boats float on it even if the water is someplace it usually isnt.
Boats are far from an ideal way to pull off a military attack, certainly if you want to move heavy gear across. The bridges and dam would be much easier for Ukrainian forces to move across.
They have PTS'2's
Each one can carry a truck and a field gun across, or about 30 guys (very uncomfortably).
With proper organization and using a combination of vehicles they could ferry across a battalion or so.
You'd need hundreds of them to do anything substantial, and any river crossing would be very vulnerable. Amphibious assaults really are something you should only consider if there's absolutely not other way, and even then I doubt the Ukrainians could get enough across to be effective.
10 of them means 10 vehicle. Assume a round trip takes an hour that's 24 trips per day and 240 vehicles. Roghly the number of vehicles in a battalion. With smaller shit ferrying grunts its very doable.
And yes, river crossings are hot trash. But you dont start ferrying the big stuff first - you would have to establish a foothold on the far bank first with light infantry.
Its a big boat, not a bridge, ya goddamn smooth brain.
>Assume a round trip takes an hour that's 24 trips per day and 240 vehicles.
I know the Russians are moronic, but there is no way the Russians are going to just let them do this. Assuming those things could even get across a river that deep and wide, the Ukrainians would have no logistics support once on the other side vs an enemy that does.. It'd be suicide.
oh i thought it was a bridge layer
still a dumb idea though its not like the russians would just watch this boat move slowly over to their position
>Length 11.52 m (37 ft 10 in)
>length of river between Kherson and the russian side : 1.11km
They would need a lot more than trucks, field guns, and infantry for a successful offensive across the river.
Why would it have to be an offensive? Why not just a fixing action to support an offensive elsewhere?
Get a couple of battalions across and the Russians have to stay to defend. If you dont everyone on the Russian side of the river becomes a strategic reserve for stuff happening up north.
Good point, but I don't think you'd need anything on the scale you were describing to achieve that, just a couple boats of infantry crossing once in a while would be enough to keep them guessing. Seems like that was enough to scare the Russians into blowing the dam.
A large scale crossing would require bridges. With boats you can only get a handful of infantry across.
>Thing is, flooding goes both ways
No that's literally the point, if the Russian held bank is lower, then that area floods. The Ukrainian held bank is higher, so no flood, or minimal.
I think we are missing the bigger picture, namely the reservoir in the north disappearing, making a river crossing on the now smaller reservoir in a few weeks alot easier, the Russians are completely underprepared and a riverbed quickly dries out in the European June sun, becoming sand, which is perfect for tank movements.
Would honestly be Kino if this were true, but I doubt the riverbed gets narrow enough for it to be viable
it would make bridging the river significantly easier.
All that freshly exposed ground is gonna be complete sludge for a while, it's been sitting underwater for the better part of a century.
Have you ever seen how quickly a creek dries out during summer? Granted it’s just the girst layers of soil, it’s still very quick as lo mg as there is no tidal movement replenishing it.
This is a bit more than a creek, and there's still going to be a river running through it.
It would still be much simpler to pontoon.
The mud and silt accumulation under this lake probably runs between 10 meters and 20 meters deep in most places. You're average "creek" might be half a meter to a meter. The lakebed doesn't just need to evaporate, all the water accumulated in the mud and silt has to drain, a process that can take years depending on a number of factors.
In this case, this part of Ukraine is a gigantic, ancient delta (from the glaciers). The reason this land is so rich for agriculture. It's also fairly level, so water takes a long time to drain out of the soil. No way this lake bed dries out before next summer, not in any way that allows for armor columns to drive across it. No, it isn't sand. It's mud and glacial till. With the proper bridging & pontooning equipment, paths could be constructed that would allow armor to drive across, but that would be mid August or October, if this year at all. It's a massive engineering project.
YOU MANIACS!
underrated post
genius of this gif is that it is an Indian saying it, so you can imagine vatnik poo shills saying
>MAYBE IT JUST COLLAPSED ON ITS OWN AND RUSSIA NOT INVOLVED?????
Give it a couple of hours. The morning poostorm from Calcutta is about to fire up. I'll bet 20 quatloos this is exactly a huge slice of the poopie incoming for today.
Honestly? People get so hung up about the dam feeding crimea that they think the russians wouldn't starve the peninsula of water to spite the Ukrainians trying to use it for the next decade or so. Even their delusional asses probably see the writing on the wall, expect to see more and more sabotage of basic civic infrastructure as the russians leave.
Agreed. If the Russians feel like their position is no longer possible in Ukraine they’ll burn Donbas and Luhansk to the ground
Sadly the only appropriate countermove in this situation is to strike the Kursk NPP.
Stings to have someone immediately call you out, doesn't it? I'm gonna buy a bottle of champagne when your webhost gets arrested.
the ingenious part of russian defenses is any infrastructure that gets destroyed is only speeding up what would've happened in a decade anyways due to rot
lay off the estrogen and take your schizo pills
Cant wait for the power plant to blow up. Mmm irradiated piggies
Poland has said in the past that if radiation from a meltdown at ZNPP contaminates polish ground they would invoke article V of the NATO treaty.
>poland said
stopped reading right there, if poland tries shit we nuke
>we
By all means, do it homosexual.
nook nook
Lmao, with what? A fricking patriot clapped your best shit. Enjoy sucking off chinks for rice and potassium iodide.
i wish you rusBlack folk would stop talking and actually nuke
if you vatBlack folk nuke, we americans nuke you. and we both know your nukes dont work because your moronic vodka Black folk
come on
I'm hearing this NOOK
for like so many times now
Do it and the Russian people will be genocided to the last man, woman, and child
And Article 5 does not state immediate declaration of war against the aggressor. It simply states that you have to do stuff to 'secure the security of the North Atlantic area'. Which does not mean declaring war on Russia. That is the final, ultimate part of the treaty. Literally 'up to military action'. So it is possible all it means is that NATO sends radiation decon to try and mitigate the issues to Poland.
No one cares what Poland says, they're all bark and no bite.
And if the wind blows in the right direction, irradiated muscovites.
New smo battlepass
not a single media outlet in the us covering this huge event, absolute insanity. i get it's late at night in the US and early morning in Ukraine, but still.
bro are you moronic most of the news people are sleeping rn
It'll probably be one of the top stories tomorrow morning, and to be honest there isn't much to report on quite yet. Maybe waiting for statements from the UKR/RUS/USA governments?
Big media does have standards you know?
Random telegram poster can put whatever they like up without having to go through 2-3 people for approval.
If you watch/read Fox you wouldn't know the war was happening at all, except as some exercise in graft.
Germany, France, the UK, Japan, and Australia are not covering it, either. Yet.
The MSM are usually 2-5 days behind Ukraine. It's in the "gee that sucks" zone of the world.
If its real I would expect to see it on ABC news in about 12 hours
They're fast, but they generally don't update outside of working hours unless its something big that affects Australians
>If its real
Anon take a look at reporting, it's real from fricking space.
see
Crazy fricking thought but what if they're emptying the reservoir so the can cross it more easily.
Was Russia really that fricking afraid of a Dnipro amphibious assault?
I guess they lowered the chance of it happening from 5% to 1%.
They can move troops from the area to other more likely zones now that they’ve made in extremely difficult to assault
Would this action make any up river crossings easier?
crossing a big lake is harder than crossing a river yes
Path of least resistance is still through eastern Ukraine, always has been. Once it became clear the Russian military managed an organized retreat from the west bank, I've never understood why people thought a major Ukrainian offensive effort would be taken ACROSS the Dnieper, which is unequivocally the strongest fortification the Russians have in.
If they cut the roads between Mariupol and Melitopol it will have the same devastating effects on supplies going to southern Ukraine.
any newly exposed ground would be muddy as frick and a huge pain to drive any vehicles across
Apparently Russian aviation was up and launching guided bombs
Calling it now they blew the dam accidentally while aiming for something else
Kinda spooky that the Ukranian offensive just so happens to line up almost perfectly with D-Day
Stupid idea. Think of the google searches. You'll end up getting multiple hits! Should have done meme magic invasion like Putin did.
Russia did this because they didn't want Ukraine to use the dam as a bridge. They were worried that they could lose control of their side of it relatively soon.
Yes, that's the actual reason and yes it's super moronic.
what is problem of slavs?
The Muscovite Yoke
I'm honestly surprised that the dam actually lasted this long.
Ukraine is claiming it was the Russian who blew it.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1665919629930250240?cxt=HHwWgIC-5fbExJ4uAAAA
No, the fact is, Russia is flooding the banks of the Dnieper so they can hydroelectric up the whole durn country. Yes, sir, Novorossiya is gonna change. Everything's gonna be put on electricity and run on a paying basis. Out with the old spiritual mumbo jumbo, the superstitions, and the backward ways. We're gonna see a brave new world where they run everybody a wire and hook us all up to a grid. Yes, sir, a veritable age of reason. Like the one they had in France. Not a moment too soon.
I WENT DOWN TO THE RIVER TO BLYAT
STUDYING ABOUT THAT GOOD OLD CYKA
AND WHO SHALL WEAR
THE HAMMER AND SICKLE
GOOD PUTIN, SHOW US THE WAY
we will see underwater marine kino battles now
>Stupid hohols plan D-day style landing on D-day magic date of tuesday Jun 6th.
>We blow dam and get all of them at once.
10/10 russian victory
So basically all of this will dry up now?
That's a lot of fricking water man.
first nordstream now dam. damn hato terrorism. shame on you west!
>tactical space marines
Eugh
They're Raven Guard. Tactical glowie shit has always been their #1 favourite.
I mean there are several fluff pieces of Space Marines doing just that because nobody expected them to come from the ocean. Also a scope is hardly 'tacticool'.
The marine's helmets have scopes built in.
Twice the scope, twice the accuracy
marines having bigger, more capable scopes on their guns to augment their built-in optics is nothing new, Devastators have had that on their lascannons and missile launcher since forever.
literal war crime btw
https://streamable.com/b2xmgu
Honestly this feels like some overzealous moron fricked up rather than some master plan from the higher ups of Russia or Ukraine.
Holy shit
old video
It's a old video from like from the first months
The camera here looks to be on the portion of the turbine building that is now destroyed, completely detached from the other half, and sitting in the water. I don't think this is a video of the dam bursting.
That's from last year when the Russians were retreating from the right bank, they blew the road bridge of the dam after crossing
How long would it take for the water levels to stabilize?
Couple of weeks, minimum. The elevation change of the land and any incoming rain upstream will be significant factors. Could take a couple of months for true "stabilization." You'd have to come up with an engineering definition for what type & level of "stabilization" you mean.
It's a REALLY huge lake. All the agriculture for the entire region will be affected, some of it catastrophically. All the water tables for dozens of kilometers to either side will start to lower & drain (for months & years), until the dam is rebuilt and the lake is allowed to refill ... then it will take years for the water tables to fully recover.
wait, all this time Ukraine could've destroyed the dam to prevent water from going into Crimea?
Before the invasion Ukraine dammed the canal to Crimea further downstream.
Consider:
How about (You) try to NOT be a fricking , mouth-breathing moron out loud? 'Kay?
This is a massive happening.
Hope they get their people out and any offensive equipment about the flood line.
ziggers now claim that it broke up on its own
>what sort of standards are these dams built to?
>oh, very rigorous civil-engineering standards
>What kind of standards?
>Well paper's out.
>Cardboard?
>No cardboard
>Wood?
>Well, maybe a beaver dam, but not our dams.
>so what happened in this case?
>well the front fell off in this case by all means, but it's very unusual
>but Comrade Colonel Kleptovich, why did the front fall off?
>a bomb hit the dam
>a bomb hit the dam? is that unusual?
>in a warzone? chance in a million
There were actually some photos of sluice gates opened to vent huge amounts of water, and reservoir levels were at a 30 year high. Could poor maintenance have caused a collapse? Possibly.
The timing and the changing Russian responses argue that deliberate Russian detonation is a lot more likely.
Maybe they tried to vent more water to thwart Ukrainian attempts to cross the river and it back fired.
See the chart here:
They drained the reservoir abnormally low, then filled it to dangerously high levels. Negligence would have been bad enough, but this was done intentionally.
It happened like this:
>Blyat Ivan, the pumps for the Crimea canal are pizdyec, how will we send water to Crimean banan farms now cyka debil?
>Do not worry comrade Boris, I have developed ingenious solution to our current predicament using my powerful engineering mind
>you see my freind, the canal is fed from that lake over there, which is controlled by the dam
>all we need do is close gates on dam, let her fill up until water level is higher than pumps and boom, water to canal is restored!
>/k/ is mad
Sounds like the ziggers are winning again.
This act only really endangers civilians. Black person apes like yourself wouldn't get it.
actually, strategically speaking it also endangers the Russian position since as the (ostensible) attackers in this war they can no longer threaten Ukrainian forces from the south and now Crimea's water supply is severely diminished
Realistically, Russia was never going to retake Ukraine. I'm sure the Russian MoD won't lose any sleep over not being able to easily shell Kherson city anymore. Especially when doing such an act can potentially throw a wrench into Ukrainian plans. Again, CIVILIANS in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are the only ones majorly directly effected.
>Realistically, Russia was never going to retake Ukraine
That's not what they thought at the start though, eh? But yeah. This still proves they are totally out of gas when it comes to offensive capability and have no faith whatsoever in their defenses holding out even against a Ukrainian amphibious crossing. Because yeah, sure, they can now move their forces over to more likely avenues of attack...but so can the Ukrainians. They must be stretched majorly thin or dangerously low on morale (probably both) if their plan to resist this offensive seems to boil down to just stacking mobiks as thick as possible.
Here we go, the first western news stories
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-blows-up-major-nova-kakhovka-dam-southern-ukraine-2023-06-06/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-dam-near-kherson-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-military-says
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/06/europe/ukraine-nova-kakhovka-dam-breach-intl-hnk/index.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/06/ukraine-russia-war-latest-counter-offensive-kakhovka-dam/
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230606-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-ukraine-says-russian-forces-blew-up-nova-kakhova-dam-in-kherson-region
Ahh. Europe finally woke up. Got their first ciggie and espresso to go with jam and muffins. I say, let's turn the Internets and see what shit monke shat out overnight. Such a rigorous, thankless job. Absolutely brutal. Normies will never understand how brutal.
inb4 NATO brings in humanitarian forces.