Zaporizhzhia Front

Now that the Kerch bridge is taken out of action the supply situation in Ukraine's southern front becomes dire for the Russians.

An assault south of Zaporizhzhia and into Melitipol by the Ukrainians can turn this dire situation into a terminal one for the Russians.

My guess is that this is the actual plan, but can Ukraine actually pull this off? Do they have enough man power and equipment to get the job done?

Also, note that some of Russia's best units atm are stuck on the Kherson bridgehead, chronically short on supplies with those two bridges there also destroyed. (made even worse by current events)

  1. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    I don't know but what I do know is that Russia military is collapsing. There will no Russian military in 6 months from now.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >Mobilization is so late that the ukranian basically retake all of their stolen lands
      Lmao

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Yeah they really fucked this up at every phase, it's honestly impressive.
        >invade under the assumption that your troops will be treated as liberators and heroes, commit vastly inadequate forces to opening fronts all along the border
        >attempt to deep strike hostomel airport to open another front
        >all of this fails miserably
        >instead of rapidly reallocating resources, continue to throw men at all fronts until the situation becomes terminally unsalvageable in the North, forcing a disorganized retreat
        >refocus on the ostfront and creating a landbridge to Crimea, the old 'novorossiya' notion after losing 15-25% of your active forces, do not mobilize to replace them, depend on piecemeal shit like shtrafniki, volunteers and stop loss
        >lost so much of your modern equipment that you're forced to pull T-62Ms out of storage
        >airforce fails to SEAD
        >navy fails to do anything, loses its flagship to a country with no navy
        >continue to throw lives away trying to brute force against urban defensive positions because your boss wants results faster
        >during this time, never rotate any of your units to make sure morale craters and as many experienced soldiers die as possible
        >another front begins to catastrophically collapse under a relatively lightly manned offensive using light vehicles and even fucking technicals
        >only NOW do you even begin to fucking mobilize
        >the other front begins to collapse as well
        >now your main supply line, rail from crimea, is throttled if not disabled, and the other supply line through occupied territory is nearly within enemy artillery range

        There were so many points between February and July that they could have made a tough decision and actually salvaged this at a less bonecrushing cost.

  2. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    My body is ready, as is my dick.

  3. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    >into Melitipol
    they just have to take tokmak. the rail from donbass to kherson goes through tokmak.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      True, railway can be cutoff from there, but taking Melitopol makes certain they can't off load materials short of Tomak and drive them on the roads further south.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        And we all know how good Russia's truck based logistics are.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >they just have to take tokmak
      What else do they hide in Ukraine?

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        the Piss Keys, the vaults of Azovstal, the Zone Anomalies, the Chornobaivka Time Loop, the relics lost in the Azovstal Cum Pits, etc.

  4. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    >the supply situation in Ukraine's southern front becomes dire for the Russians.
    It's a major setback but it's not dire, unless Ukraine finds a way to constantly bomb the ferries.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Ferries need to dock. Their cargo does not instantaneously unload itself. Just hit them in port, they burn, explode, and become blocking ships.
      This is of course assuming they can get sea lanes running before Ukraine retakes those ports.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        >Their cargo does not instantaneously unload itself
        And that's where the lack of forklifts and pallets come in yet again.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Ferries do not have the fraction of the capacity rail and roads offers. Even if you have hundreds of them (When I mean hundreds of them I mean 1000-5000t supply ships and not dinky boat you ferry people around with), and Russia certainly does not have that many.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Ferries need to dock. Their cargo does not instantaneously unload itself. Just hit them in port, they burn, explode, and become blocking ships.
        This is of course assuming they can get sea lanes running before Ukraine retakes those ports.

        If UKR manage to take Melitopol wouldn't ferries running supply to Crimea be in range of anti-ship missiles for the most efficient routes?

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          They'll have have to stay out of the Sea of Azov and go on a longer route.

          Thus the hundreds of 1000-5000t ships needed to keep that front alive, which they don't have.

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            The Neptune has a 170 mile operational range, assuming they bypass Melitopol and make rin for the coast, how bad could they cut off the Russian operations in the Azov Sea?

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              If they set up shop in Prymorsk right on the coast, they could could cover the entire Sea of Azov

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >It's a major setback but it's not dire, unless Ukraine finds a way to constantly bomb the ferries.

      Next idea?

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        OH NO NO NO HAHAHAHAHAHA

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      That clearly won't be an issue at all, Russia should definitely start using waterborne transport within HIMARS and ATACMS range.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      To be fair the normal russian supply situation is dire compared to any other militaries standards.

  5. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    They should go for Mariupol for the style points, it'll be a bigger encirclement

  6. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    I can't believe yakimivka is a significant enough town to be on a map
    I know its based on population size and there's nothing else noteworthy in the region, but the down is basically a few streets and farmsteads. Then again the last time I was there was like 13 years ago so maybe its grown since then

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >maybe its grown since then
      just a little

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Growing up in that region, and then moving to a megaregion in the US this is basically tiny village to me. My grandma's village south of there had a smaller population than the high school I went to

  7. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Will Polish officials also publicly thank the US for this latest terror attacking against the civil infrastructure of the Russian federation? Western backers of the criminal regime of Ukraine have added so much gasoline to the fire, the world has been brought to the brink of a much larger crisis.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      That was just one polish official. US Senator Majorie Taylor Greene has been vocally anti-Ukraine and she doesn’t represent all of America

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        >whataboutism

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        i fucking hate that agitprop so much

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        1. She's a Represenative and not a senator
        2. Her faction (Trump's) is in control of the Republican party and they will do exactly what Putin wants.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          so why hasnt he done it as president?

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            >so why hasnt he done it as president?
            No, it's "Why didn't he do it as president?" He, I assume, meaning Trump and answer is, he did.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          >they will do exactly what raytheon wants
          fixed

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          Putin is running around SE Asia and the ME discussing your child grooming operation. This is after that fraudulent "Marxist" insurgency you gays ran. Then you flew Soviet flags on our streets and raised chud flags over the US flag. have a nice day to save us time so we can get our recruiting numbers back up.

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            Schizo, face it Republicans love vatmorons and hate Ukraine. Based Joe is giving us weed and finishing the cold war properly unlike that gay Reagan

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              >omg schizo
              Fuck Russia but mostly fuck you for lying. Every one of us knows you betrayed your country. Now we have a war that could have been prevented and a bunch of clowns shitting up our politics. And clownish behavior isn't legitimate, no one respects or believes any of it. Getting you ragged cunts the fuck away from kids is far more important than foreign wars. Our recruiting numbers show it and your fake internet and censorship or chud operations cannot hide the real polling - like our fucking recruiting. Now we have Putler running around the world telling religious communities about (You). See our problem here? It's irreconcilable and we're going to fix this.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                All that is cover for saying we should abandon Ukraine and let Russia wage war as it wills. Magamorons will all hang, you talk about protecting children while supporting epstein and his protectors, Christians aka organized child molesters and people who talk about impregnation teen girls. Disgusting gayry and bullshit words. Putin is evil and suggesting we shouldn't be supporting Ukraine and freedom is downright Un americAmerican. If you don't like it get the fuck out of MY country and move to Russia

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                Everyone please do not fooled by this bait. This is most likely a false flagging vatmoron trying to look stupid on purpose to make people hate all the support ukraine has been getting on this board.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                All that is cover for saying we should abandon Ukraine and let Russia wage war as it wills. Magamorons will all hang, you talk about protecting children while supporting epstein and his protectors, Christians aka organized child molesters and people who talk about impregnation teen girls. Disgusting gayry and bullshit words. Putin is evil and suggesting we shouldn't be supporting Ukraine and freedom is downright Un americAmerican. If you don't like it get the fuck out of MY country and move to Russia

                >people who talk about impregnation teen girls.
                looks ESL to me

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                Trump literally partied with Epstein and was a close friend of his, MAGA is fucking retarded and calling the kettle black

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                You know very well that garden gnome was in everyone's business within the American elite. As though one type of rot within the American political class somehow excuses its other racial and gender psychoses. That anon was right: You do nothing but give subversives ammunition.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          >2. Her faction (Trump's) is in control of the Republican party and they will do exactly what Putin wants.
          >cant arm and clothe is military
          >can control one of two parties in the strongest nation on earth
          which is it

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Vatniks need new talking points, all their current ones are already so fucking stale

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Polish troll MEP?
      he will talk trash so people will talk about him again...

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >MUH
      >*inhales*
      >NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOKS

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >Will Polish officials also publicly thank the US for this latest terror attacking against the civil infrastructure of the Russian federation?
      a. Crimea is not the "civil infrastruture" or the "Russian Federation"
      b. The train tracks were used to transport ammo and materiel onto foreign soil in a time of war.
      c. go fuck yourself with an unlubed weedwhacker, vatnik. You are losing and everyone can see it.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Ackshyually Crimea is not a part of Russia and the Russians illegally present there are obliged to leave as quickly as possible :^)

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Enjoy your (You)s

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Shut up vatnik

  8. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    WTF?
    The mad lads finally did it.
    And just before winter sets in.

    Vatniks on turbo suicide watch!

  9. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Yeah, it would be great coup de grâce, but I'm not sure if Ukraine has the means at this point.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >but I'm not sure if Ukraine has the means at this point.
      They're getting lend-lease from Burgerland.

  10. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    I may be a real war noob but my HOI4 knowledge is telling me that they will just use ports. Is this not the case? I know it will take longer and there will be disruption. Or is Russia entire logistical plan based on trucks/trains alone? Are they that retarded?

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Sevastopol is within HIMARS range.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Not enough trucks and mostly by trains.

      Their logistics couldn't handle a 200k man invasion force next door thus the losses in Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv direction.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Russia has historically relied on foreign benefactors to handle their sea logistics when they needed them. They do not have enough ship, and the available (and unavailable) ports do not have the capacity. There would be almost no point in trying if the ports weren't already in range of terrestrial artillery.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >they will just use ports
      they can ferry the stuff across the kerch strait. there used to be a regular ferry but apparently it hasn't been used in years. and it's a massive bottleneck in an already strained logistical system, each ship takes up a dock until it's unloaded, and then you've got to get everything moved onto a train which is just sitting there taking up rail until everything is loaded. there are multiple new bottlenecks in the system, but the port facilities and lack of ships are killers. remember that ukraine took out three of the "alligator" landing ships that russia was using to move supplies when they hit the berdyansk docks back in late march, that's three fewer ships that are available to move shit now that it's *really* important.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Absolutely fucking glorious

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Three alligators now? I only remember one getting non-consentually turned into a blocking ship and another getting smoked but sailing off to be decommissioned in peace.
        If my memory serves, three would be all the gators in the Black Sea, and half of the class.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          >remember that ukraine took out three of the "alligator" landing ships that russia was using to move supplies when they hit the berdyansk docks back in late march
          Inaccurate. Saratov went down, but of the two other ships present, only one had visible damage, and we never got assessment on it. Could have just been a deck fire, could have been crippling. As it stands, Russia is known to have 12 LST/LSIs in the Black Sea, with one last seen damaged, plus Saratov sunk at Berdyansk.

          All that said, Berdyansk has been in Tochka range for the whole war and hit multiple times, it's not a safe place for them to unload shit, which means that only the ports in Crimea are available to pick up the slack, and with the amount of slack needing to be picked up, those ships are gonna get run hard, leading to more possible maintenance failures.

          one burned at the docks, the other two set sail but were on fire and circled in the azov for a few days while they burned. they're still around in the sense that they're floating in a dock someplace, but they're no longer functional.

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            One was running in a circle for at least several hours, which isn't a good sign, but I'm not going to call it a triple kill.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        >remember that ukraine took out three of the "alligator" landing ships that russia was using to move supplies when they hit the berdyansk docks back in late march
        Inaccurate. Saratov went down, but of the two other ships present, only one had visible damage, and we never got assessment on it. Could have just been a deck fire, could have been crippling. As it stands, Russia is known to have 12 LST/LSIs in the Black Sea, with one last seen damaged, plus Saratov sunk at Berdyansk.

        All that said, Berdyansk has been in Tochka range for the whole war and hit multiple times, it's not a safe place for them to unload shit, which means that only the ports in Crimea are available to pick up the slack, and with the amount of slack needing to be picked up, those ships are gonna get run hard, leading to more possible maintenance failures.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Three alligators now? I only remember one getting non-consentually turned into a blocking ship and another getting smoked but sailing off to be decommissioned in peace.
        If my memory serves, three would be all the gators in the Black Sea, and half of the class.

        >remember that ukraine took out three of the "alligator" landing ships that russia was using to move supplies when they hit the berdyansk docks back in late march
        Inaccurate. Saratov went down, but of the two other ships present, only one had visible damage, and we never got assessment on it. Could have just been a deck fire, could have been crippling. As it stands, Russia is known to have 12 LST/LSIs in the Black Sea, with one last seen damaged, plus Saratov sunk at Berdyansk.

        All that said, Berdyansk has been in Tochka range for the whole war and hit multiple times, it's not a safe place for them to unload shit, which means that only the ports in Crimea are available to pick up the slack, and with the amount of slack needing to be picked up, those ships are gonna get run hard, leading to more possible maintenance failures.

        (me)
        On this note, let's do some spitball math on Russian transport capacity. The distance from Novorossoyik to Kerch is 75 miles as the crow flies. Accounting for sea travel, let's round that up to 100. Both the Alligator and Ropucha class have a maximum speed of 18 knots, but I can't easily find the cruising speed. Let's call it 12 knots. With both of these, that gives us about 10 hours at sea for a round trip for each of these vessels. As for load/unload times, both classes appear to be around 1000 metric tons of capacity. This is on the low end for commercial shipping, since these vessels are meant for transporting relatively small amounts of military equipment with speed, rather than bulk hauling of industrial-scale goods. Let's be generous to the Russians and call it 6 hours of port time.

        All put together, this gives us an estimate of 22 hours to make a round trip, or close enough to one per day. Thus, the Russian Black Sea Fleet's heavy lift elements can provide 11-12,000 metric tons of supply to Crimea per day, assuming that they run the ships until they break. In terms of food or ammunition, this is a fairly decent amount, but the inclusion of any replacement vehicles will eat into this capacity very quickly. Additionally, as

        https://i.imgur.com/OOIBZid.png

        has reminded us, Russia is also responsible for the civilians in Crimea, and nothing will eat up cargo capacity like needing to feed a civilian populace. Seeing as Russian exports have tanked in the last 6 months, I give good odds that Russia is going to either commission or outright mobilize its merchant fleet to assist in providing for Crimea.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          They still have a GLOC remaining through the north, though it's up in the air whether they'll lose that before they manage any repairs

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            If the Ukrainian field commanders have any initiative, they're mounting up right fucking now to get that rail line into HIMARS range.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          >Anonymous
          it just baffles me how effective this strategy has been.
          Russia having to not only try to resupply their own forces, but also the Civilians in Crimea will distract them so much it might even be a real turning point in the war.

          Also, how will Ukraine try to take Crimea now that the bridge is down?

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            this is bridge From Russia - Ukraine has land connection to Crimea

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              Much closer to the front lines, well within range of GMLRS

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            If/when they cross the Dnieper or come in from the land bridge, I bet we're going to see just how many ships a country without a navy can really sink. The crossing into Crimea is still a fuck, and I wouldn't put it past Russia to blow the bridge there if Ukraine starts getting close. We might actually see a real fucking air war break out, with the Ukrainian objective being to shut down the ports and interdict ships until Crimea gets starved into surrender.

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              >The crossing into Crimea is still a fuck, and I wouldn't put it past Russia to blow the bridge there if Ukraine starts getting close.
              The northern entrance to Crimea isn't a bridge, its a 4 mile wide strip of land called the Isthmus of Perekop. It can't be blown up exactly but it'll be an absolute nightmare to break through unless the Russians run out of ammo, and even then it'll just be a huge stack of overlapping land mines. They'd have to saturate the whole thing with artillery or try some ridiculous beach landing with rubber dingies. It will get very unpleasant one way or another.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                >unless the Russians run out of ammo
                sooooo, about that...

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                Hovercrafts can cross landmines as I recall. Though I have no idea if they have any, or want to risk it. Not exactly strong vehicles otherwise. Though perhaps if they have some robotics engineers they can make some remote controlled ones to drive around.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >expecting flexible logistical chains and on the fly logistical improviazation
      >from whatsapalletstan

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Russia didn't build enough convoys to supply by sea alone.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Just stick to HOI4

  11. 2 months ago
    Anonymous
    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      There will be water rationing too before long

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        >will
        Was before the war even started

  12. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    I believe the Russians said they are expecting an assault from Zaporizhzhia for that express purpose of severing the line between crimea and the mainland
    due to that I would assume they are sending the bulk of reinforcements to secure that sector as I reckon that currently is the most vital part of the front

  13. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Did the Russians seriously pin their entire war effort on one bridge?

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      No, they pinned their entire war effort on everyone in Ukraine rolling over and letting them install a puppet government within a month at most. They've been slowly losing ever since.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      they used to be able to resupply crimea from the north but now that's not an option

  14. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    no_escape.gif

  15. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    There was this schizo claiming that by his calculations UA should have one more sizeable army to do offensive operation. So maybe...

  16. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Crimea has a fuckhuge port. They can potentially supply by ships

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Crimea has a fuckhuge civilian population that now has to either be evacuated through a warzone or fed in place. That takes up logistics too.

      Russia might not view it as their problem if they starve, but the civilians are perfectly capable of making it their problem with riots or treachery.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        And Crimea has no water. And no, Russians didn't have the foresight to stockpile tens if thousands of cubic metres of water to ration out in the event of the water supplies collapsing.

        They never got the desalination up and running did they?

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          >They never got the desalination up and running did they?
          Nope, never even started building it, just announced they would every few months for 8 years. Problem being Russian industry is terrible and waterworks equipment is sanctioned. They managed to get some ground pumps from Siemens apparently, but can't maintain them:
          https://m.dw.com/en/danish-pumps-supply-water-to-crimea-despite-eu-sanctions/a-57435401

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >Crimea has a fuckhuge port. They can potentially supply by ships

      2.3 million people. With an improvised supply chain, under fire.

      Nope.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Running the quick numbers on that again, that's going to come out to ~3500 tons of food per day at a light diet of 3 lbs per person. That's over a quarter of the Black Sea Fleet's transport capacity right there, with no consideration to everything else the Crimean population needs imported, ranging from gasoline to shaving cream. Rationing is going to get very nasty over there very soon, because Russia just cannot afford to take that shipping room away from their military needs.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          >that's going to come out to ~3500 tons of food per day at a light diet of 3 lbs per person... with no consideration to everything else the Crimean population needs imported, ranging from gasoline to shaving cream.

          > The Port of Sevastopol has capacity to handle 600 thousand tons of cargo per year.

          So ~2000 tons/day. Best case.

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            You just have to look up, how many supplies did the German 6th army need in Stalingrad daily. Russians just made their pwn Stalingrad it seems. And take into account that "Winter is coming".

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              > The Sixth Army required enough fuel, ammunition, and food to sustain defensive operations. In order to supply 300,000 troops with enough supplies to sustain defensive operations, Sixth Army established the requirement of 750 tons per day.

              So, to support the entire Crimea population on a starvation diet + sundries + military supplies, that's ~5000 tons per day or more. And no -- the Russians can't support a Berlin Airlift, but it would be fun to see them try.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                >try to VDV supplies into crimea
                >they fall into the sea

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                doesn't Ukraine control Crimeas water supply now? They can just shut off the taps. Water is more important than food.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                They'd have to retake pretty much all of the Kherson oblast to do that.

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            There's also Kerch (6,850/day) and Yevpatoria (3,560/day), plus harbor towns. Sevastapol comes in at 1640, and all together they make just about 12,000 tons per day. The problem here is that it's a much longer journey to Sevastapol and Yevpatoria, so the one-trip-per-day schedule goes right out the window. If we call it 2 a day for the 5 ships that have to go the other way, that brings shipping down to an average of 9500 tons/day, or 6000 tons for things that aren't feeding the civilian populace.

            >The crossing into Crimea is still a fuck, and I wouldn't put it past Russia to blow the bridge there if Ukraine starts getting close.
            The northern entrance to Crimea isn't a bridge, its a 4 mile wide strip of land called the Isthmus of Perekop. It can't be blown up exactly but it'll be an absolute nightmare to break through unless the Russians run out of ammo, and even then it'll just be a huge stack of overlapping land mines. They'd have to saturate the whole thing with artillery or try some ridiculous beach landing with rubber dingies. It will get very unpleasant one way or another.

            Perhaps not a bridge, but my understanding is that the terrain there is pretty awful, and destruction of the road would do a pretty damned good job of making the terrain impassible.

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              >terrain is bad
              In winter maybe. I think outside of that it looks like this. Germans only took 5 days to break through it in WW2 for reference.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                >flat as fuck
                That is bad terrain to attack through in 2022.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                It's bad to attack through if the enemy has an artillery advantage, but hard to say whether the Russians still do. The best defensive positions with artillery parity are towns and cities.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                that depends on how many M26A1 and M30A1 rockets they got from the US.

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              Cargo capacity isn't interchangeable. Much of that capacity is for bulk commodities and not cargo containers. And you still have to get it out of the ports and distributed. And all they have are the trucks that just happened to be in Crimea when the bridge fell.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                Correct. I'm trying to err in favor of the Russians, and even then it's really not looking good.

                > The Sixth Army required enough fuel, ammunition, and food to sustain defensive operations. In order to supply 300,000 troops with enough supplies to sustain defensive operations, Sixth Army established the requirement of 750 tons per day.

                So, to support the entire Crimea population on a starvation diet + sundries + military supplies, that's ~5000 tons per day or more. And no -- the Russians can't support a Berlin Airlift, but it would be fun to see them try.

                Bear in mind that the 6th Army was significantly less mechanized than the Russian army. They used much less fuel and consumed much less heavy munitions like rockets, nor did they require as many replacement parts for vehicles.

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              I don't really see Russia not attempting to evacuate civilians in this scenario simply because of how difficult it would be to to keep the populace fed. Granted, I also think such an attempt would be a clusterfuck and result in a humanitarian crisis from internal refugees being dumped in Russian territory without any aid. Either way everyone is getting screwed.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                Silver lining. Ukies won't need to bother with deporting all those Russian colonist that came after annexation.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                That sounds about right. Every ship that comes in with supplies leaves stuffed to the gills with people, a nice unpleasant day at sea, then dumped ashore in Novorossoyik with a suggestion you call your family to come pick you up. Hell, just organizing who gets on the boat is going to be a clusterfuck. Maybe a lottery, so they can mix the fuckfest of people having to be informed and get to the port with the fuckfest of the organizers just outright selling tickets.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                Absolutely and resoundingly no comrade.
                Getting those people out of Krymnash (Crimea is ours) is politically unpassable. How on earth could you suggest Russians leave Russia.

                No one leaves Crimea! All is well, trust the plan. Z.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        All these millions would likely want to get out of this trapped island immediately, clogging transport routes and further fucking up logistical chains

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          Just drive over the br----

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          Yeah, they need to start evac'ing people fucking pronto. Of course, refugees would make it look like Russia is losing, so who wants to bet that Putin isn't going to allow that?

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            Is it possible for them to rebuild it or construct an emergency route? How long would that take?

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              On a bridge? Repars might take 6-8 months with proper procedures of testing and rebudling damaged sections.

              If Russia rushes it into 2-3 month project it could end up with submersible trains after few weeks.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                just patch it with some steel plates

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                I am eagerly waiting to see CCTV footage of a train falling into the sea.

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              I'm not an engineer, but the estimates I've heard have been weeks at best, and that's just for the rail line. Until and IF they get the bridge up to partial functionality, air and sea are the only way they're getting people out of there.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                >and that's just for the rail line.
                Road. Rail's turbofucked from heat damage. Road they can *potentially* just slot in new segments.

                But realistically the whole section's compromised structurally from the blast and will have to be replaced fully.

                And Crimea has no water. And no, Russians didn't have the foresight to stockpile tens if thousands of cubic metres of water to ration out in the event of the water supplies collapsing.

                They never got the desalination up and running did they?

                Russia blew the dam blocking water to Crimea so unless Ukraine's prepared to flood Kherson, they're fine for water.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                >Russia blew the dam blocking water to Crimea so unless Ukraine's prepared to flood Kherson, they're fine for water.
                The dam wasn't blocking a supply of fresh drinking water from flowing into Crimea. They are still fucked until they actually build the infrastructure to support it.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                The dam blocking the water canal to Crimea wasn't the big hydro dam. It's was just sandbags dumped into the canal. Once Ukraine retakes the North End, easy to block again.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                The canals and piping leading to Crimea turned out to be blocked from eight years of no maintenance. Blowing up the blockage did jack and shit as Crimea still did not get water and it needs to be drained again so it can be serviced.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                Moron. Those dams weren't build with purpose of stoping water from getting into Crimea.

                Crimea elevation is higer than Dniepr River. In order to supply water to peninsula dams and pumps are needed to block water from flowing back into the river.

                Blowing them up literally destroyed infrastructure necessary for keeping that water going and until new ones are build ( good luck achieving that while in the fucking warzone) Crimea can't get enough water.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                >Moron. Those dams weren't build with purpose of stoping water from getting into Crimea.
                You're confused, m8. There is a dam just north of Kherson which creates the fuckhuge resevoir which in part feeds the Canal that feeds Crimea, but after Crimea broke away Ukraine built a second dam across that canal to keep water from flowing into it.

                The dam across the canal is what Russia blew up, you fucking idiot.

                https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/04/north-crimean-canal-fills-with-water-after-russian-forces-destroyed-dam-a76755

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              >emergency route
              It's an 18km bridge over an 11km crossing. They could try and construct a few temporary spans strong enough to take passenger cars but I sincerely doubt they can do something that would support trucks. The fact they've blown the two things in the same place also means they can't construct something to shimmy supplies from truck to train and back in between the damaged points.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          Already huge queues on petrol stations, in shops, no cash in ATMs, cars are clogging the streets to ride out. Its even worse than after airbase in Djankoi was bombed.
          Also heres another photo of the railway portion of the bridge. Jet fuel can melt steel beams after all.

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            They can likely get the rail working in a few weeks. Chances of it being disabled longer without another attack are low I think.

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              Hearing that the rail is operating again but I find it hard to believe that they cleared the debris and repaired the damage in less than 12 hours.

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                russia and some msm outlets have said that they got one train over thus far, and that car traffic is down to a single lane but still able to go over. While it won't be fully repaired, it might just be able to do some minor traffic, albeit much more of a chokepoint

              • 2 months ago
                Anonymous

                >repaired the damage in less than 12 hours
                Cracked reinforced concrete, embrittled by intense heat, is not affected by salt water at all. Everything is going by plan. No panic. Here are pictures of an empty train passing over it. See, that one made it.

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            Maintenance walkways that are clearly drooping are likely made of aluminum.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >Crimea has a fuckhuge port.
      You misspelled "target".

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        >Crimea has a fuckhuge port.
        Where? I lived in Sevastopol for 5 years and the port there is relatively small compared to Odessa for example.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >Crimea has a fuckhuge port
      and how many ships does russia have left in the black sea to transport shit?

  17. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    I don't understand what exactly is the situation right now at Zaporizhzhia, from liveuamaps it looks like it is in ukrainians' territory, but from the news i read russians are still occupying the nuclear power plant?

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Ukraine controls Zaporizhzhia the city
      the nuclear power plant is named after Zaporizhzhia the region, and is across the river in Enerhodar, which is Russian-controlled right now

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        The plant is south of the river, on the russian side. The city of Zaporizhzhia is fully in control of the ukes.
        The region is split.

        Ukraine controls Zaporizhzhia the city, the nuclear plant is in Enerhodar which is in Zaporizhzhia the oblast

        Oh ok that makes sense

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      The plant is south of the river, on the russian side. The city of Zaporizhzhia is fully in control of the ukes.
      The region is split.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Ukraine controls Zaporizhzhia the city, the nuclear plant is in Enerhodar which is in Zaporizhzhia the oblast

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Think of it like this.
      New York city, and New York state

  18. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    This war has to be the biggest military fuckup by a major power in several centuries. I can't remember the last time I've read about humiliation after humiliation like this

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >This war has to be the biggest military fuckup by a major power in several centuries.
      really, its so bad I suspect Putins a NATO double agent

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Russo-Japanese war - different war, same country, same problems

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >first indochina war
      >first Italo-ethiopian war
      >several Roman-Parthian border wars

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      let's not memoryhole america's trillion dollar blunder in Iraq

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        It made the weapon manufacturers rich at least.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Doesn't even hold a candle to having half your army blown up within less than a year and mobilizing your own educated citizenry

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Hawaii didn't starve during the Iraq war.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          Hawaii belongs to a country with a logistical capability second to none.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        >let's not forget Iraq for some reason
        To this day I can't understand how the US managed to lose 600 tanks trying to take Baghdad and STILL couldn't take it.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        >in Iraq
        Iraq went okay, the government there didn't collapse(completely) after we withdrew and was/is mostly friendly with us still. Afghanistan was the shitshow

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Iraq was about as bad as if Russia did actually capture Kiev in three days. This is a compound embarrassment. Not only batshit unrealistic political goals like in Iraq but batshit unrealistic military goals that keep exposing worse and worse lows of your military, politics and culture.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Iraqi invasion went fine though?

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        US had a near perfect execution when it comes to defeating Saddam (conventional, state vis-a-vis state warfare). What the US was poorly prepared for was conducting long term counterinsurgency (asymmetric warfare). Military tools were there but US leadership was/is massively incompetent. I do agree that it is a blunder, but some nuance is required, friend.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        If you're going to compare this to the Iraq War then it would be like if the coalition forces were still stuck in Basra by the end of 2003, while Saddam still lives his life normally in Baghdad.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          You can't compare occupation with invasion and we have not even seen if Russia can occupy any part of Ukraine except Crimea. Which is missing a bridge now.

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          God stop comparing this to Iraq, yes Russian military performance is piss poor, but Ukraine has advantage of Awacs and satellite intel, plus lend lease, it would be like Iraq having space aliens telling them where coalition forces are. It’s a much harder fight.

          • 2 months ago
            Anonymous

            Saddam was a dumbass that tried to use WW2 tank tactics in modern war, there is a reason why his troops didnt want to fight for him.

            • 2 months ago
              Anonymous

              Nah. Saddam didn't micromanage. More than that, the high command was about the one part of the Iraqi Army that showed some actual competence both in the Iraq-Iran War and then during the First GUlf War.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        7000 casualties in over 20 years that's almost one person killed a day but you know what that probably sounds too low for you so let's go with 10,000 american casualties that's 2 casualties if we round up. NOW let's compare that with russian casualties it has been 227 days and on the low end of the spectrum let's say 60,000 since we're using the casualty numbers from last month, now if we low ball everything to favor in the numbers game there would 264 dead on the russian side for every day this special op has gone on for. for every hour there would be 11 russians dying meaning there would be at least 1 russian dying per every 5 minutes.

        in the 12 hours between the time you made your post and I make mine there would have been about 138 russians dead if russia goes at the rate that it's currently going in.
        now compare that to americas blunder where I would have to wait a full day for a single american to die. I think america's blunder doesn't even hold up to what russia did 8 months.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Did mix up Iraq with afghanistan?

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        7000 casualties in over 20 years that's almost one person killed a day but you know what that probably sounds too low for you so let's go with 10,000 american casualties that's 2 casualties if we round up. NOW let's compare that with russian casualties it has been 227 days and on the low end of the spectrum let's say 60,000 since we're using the casualty numbers from last month, now if we low ball everything to favor in the numbers game there would 264 dead on the russian side for every day this special op has gone on for. for every hour there would be 11 russians dying meaning there would be at least 1 russian dying per every 5 minutes.

        in the 12 hours between the time you made your post and I make mine there would have been about 138 russians dead if russia goes at the rate that it's currently going in.
        now compare that to americas blunder where I would have to wait a full day for a single american to die. I think america's blunder doesn't even hold up to what russia did 8 months.

        I wouldn't say that our blunder in those countries was military. I think it was definitely political.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Mussolini idea of invasion is eerie similar to Putin's.

      >Italy's invasion of Greece, launched with the divisions of the Royal Army based in Italian-controlled Albania, was a fiasco marked by low morale and poor planning: the Italians encountered unexpectedly tenacious resistance by the Hellenic Army and had to contend with the mountainous and muddy terrain on the Albanian–Greek border.

  19. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    I wonder. Does Russia even have easy acces to necessary parts to repar this bridge?

    I swear that some of those probably aren't even made in Russia.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      The bridge was constructed under sanctions so they presumably could unless the relevant industry has been somehow dismantled for the war effort.

  20. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    How does Russia respond? Do they just full send what's left of their long range missiles at major infrastructure or do they bombard Kyiv hoping to get a kill on Zelinksyy?

    Or do they actually start blowing dams? Or a nuclear plant? They can't use nukes and they'll need to do something flashy and painful.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >How does Russia respond?
      The usual. So be ready for more 60 year old AShMs being thrown at random civilian targets.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      A combination of strongly worded threats and attacks on civilian targets. Maybe they’ll call for a UN assembly to complain about Ukrainian war crimes

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >How does Russia respond?
      lol

      lmao, even

      how did russia respond to the helicopter raid in Belgorod? Or the shelling there? The Saki airbase explosion? Sevastopol explosions? Dugin being blown up?

      Short AND long answer: they can't, and won't respond. Ukraine called them out on their empty threats months ago and were absolutely correct.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Yeah, but we're firmly in driven off villain throws rocks while bitching about getting you next time territory.

        If they've got ANY long range missiles left, now's the time to yeet em at anything that will hurt. Lord knows they aren't going to help achieve a strategic victory. Might as well score some propaganda points back home to make up for this embarrassment.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      So far they have been silent lmao
      Will start shelling civilians soon I think

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Ukraine is very geographically lucky in this situation to have Kiev as their capital due to its religious and cultural importance to many Russians.

      In any other situation, yes, nuclear weapons or indiscriminate shelling could be teased out as a last resort but how would levelling Kiev play for support at home when it means destroying priceless cultural landmarks? This isn't like America's adventures where they fuck up Baghdad or Kabul, ancient cities for sure but they carry no emotional weight to the average American.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >How does Russia respond?

      They'll blow up Twin Pines Mall.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        DON'T DO IT FOR ME, GET THE WIN FOR UNCLE SAM

  21. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    How long are the damaged segments? Could they lay military bridging equipment over the gap?
    Iirc their longest single bridge is the MTU, which can cross a span of 18 meters.

  22. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    nah here's the real deal

  23. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Ukrainians are breaking through in Kherson again, it's happening right now. No news yet but russian positions are on fire along the entire northern frontline. Looks much bigger than what FIRMS was showing before the news of advance towards Dudchany broke the last time.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      For comparison.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      https://i.imgur.com/4FtZGsJ.png

      For comparison.

      dude it's just the weather. overcast skies mean firms doesn't see as much, wetter grass and brush doesn't burn as easily so shelling doesn't cause a fire big enough to show up. take those away and suddenly it looks like all hell broke loose when in reality the combat could have actually lessened.

  24. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    If Ukraine succeeds in a Zaporizhzhia offensive and reaches the Azov coast, then every single Russian navy vessel will be well within range of Harpoons and Neptunes. The bridge will be just short of HIMARS range, but arguably within Tochka-U range.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      ATACMS could hit it from behind the current front lines

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Only if US agrees that bridge can be a target. That's conditions US made. They must aprove all targets for those missiles before Ukies would fire them.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      The threat to the navy from harpoons and neptunes however would be critical, and I mean fucking critical. The Moskva, Vasily Bekh, and the odd landing ship have proven Russia simply cannot defend their navy from anti-ship missiles, or even drones.
      If for whatever reason they don't scramble their black sea fleet even further south in this case, it will be nothing short of a slaughter.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      Tochkas are ridiculously inaccurate.

  25. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    If the yanks would stop cucking they could send the 300km HIMARS ammo that would take that bridge out for good.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      this, Russians won't do anything except cream their pants. today was proof of that.

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