yeah, consdiering Russian AA and Air is pathetic, and America's doctrine is literally just "Bomb the shit out of anything that moves until it doesn't then bomb it some more, then move in"
Thing is, we can't directly get involved, and this proxy war is bleeding the ruskies dry with minimal investment, so it's a win win for everybody.
The fact it's gone on this long and foreign aid has only given what is contextually pennies should have told you everything. If they want and can bleed russia dry from their sunken-cost fallacy in this "3 day operation", then they are more than willing to sacrifice Ukrainian to do it.
Who cares? Innocent people die in wars all the time and nobody notices, this war is significant only for its geopolitical implications. Without the context of bleeding our old cold war foe dry, this war would be as important as the Ethiopian civil war, which last year killed more people than have died in Ukraine and nobody gave a shit.
This. Ukraine has done a good job against Russia, but the US is on a completely different level. The intelligence networks would locate all of Russia's air defense in an area. A mass flight of stealth craft would erase the air defense then the endless waves of traditional airpower would wipe the defenses out.
The USAF would be limited by not being allowed to attack Russia. That lets Russia park its SAMs on the border and shoot at American jets with impunity.
The moment one SAM on the border fires at American air forces would be the moment that territory becomes fair game and all the smug pro-war Muscovites start getting firebombed.
Even if that were the case the fact that Russia would need to park all of its AA on the other side of the border would massively curtail its ability to use said AA to protect its occupied territory. If Russia pulled all its SAMs to its recognized territory the USAF would be uncontested over Sevastapol.
The implication is that the USAF wouldn't attack recognized Russian territory to prevent escalation, so by putting their SAMs behind their borders would stop the US from destroying them. I was simply pointing out that such a scenario would only work to Russia's detriment because it'd reduce extant AA capability over important areas. Even if the USAF was operating under such a restrictive ROE there would be nothing stopping them from engaging the Black Sea Fleet or carrying out ground attacks with standoff munitions from safe areas.
The US is the only one that has to be appeased about who is a war target. If the US decides that Russian soil is fair game for their bombing then it's settled. What are you gonna do about it after all?
>yeah, consdiering Russian AA and Air is pathetic
you do realise this is LITERALLY the first war that we saw mordern AA do their job right?
for the better part of the war it was overcast so laser guided munitions couldnt work thus giving the AA free meals
this is what would have happened to usa as well
sure you can argue that usa will be more efficient than ukraine but in the end they gonna lose a lot of planes too
Ukrainians are not being genocided so that's a benefit.
>slavs arent being genocided and its a good thing
found the tourist that the only history he knows is from the 90s and afterwards
The moment one SAM on the border fires at American air forces would be the moment that territory becomes fair game and all the smug pro-war Muscovites start getting firebombed.
and what gonna invoked article 5?
they cant
and usa surely wont go balls deep on a war alone
>attack US assets >expect them not to hit back
Besides, Russia doesn't have working nukes.
Maybe in a "too many cooks ruin the soup" (or however the saying goes) situation, like Russia's issue with Wagner. Which I doubt because I can't see a reality in which ukrainian command and US command would bicker and fight similarly to Russia and Wagner.
tl;dr US operations assume at least local massive superiority in support fires and air power. So when your breaching element inevitably becomes vulnerable and gets stuck in the mines, the enemy cannot observe you because you're laying a frickton of smoke, they cannot shell you because your airstrikes destroyed all their artillery, their AD cannot stop your air because a coordinated SEAD/DEAD effort by artillery, rotary, and fixed wing has suppressed them, and blah blah blah.
Even then the breach is still a very delicate and dangerous operation and very easy to frick up, and almost doomed if you don't have fire superiority. Notice how Ukrainian efforts have shifted primarily from trying to gain ground to trying to destroy as many tubes and ammo dumps as possible. You simply cannot penetrate a staric defense without massive fire superiority.
Good post. The amount of things Ukraine needs to mount a successful counter offensive is pretty vast. Way more than trickle feeding them cluster munitions or F-16s. I would really love to see replay of Desert Storm in Ukraine but that is never going to happen.
I was warning about this for weeks, but jannies and /k/opers wouldn’t listen, and preferred to prune my threads. Ukraine should have waited to build up their air force, and for the sanctions to take effect. Only then would it have been suitable to attack.
Instead the politicians wrung their hands and screamed "we gotta do something!". Now all Ukraine’s got to show for it is thousands of wounded and dead, destroyed tanks we can’t replace anytime soon, and the frontline moving at a pace similar to the Great War.
reminder that the entire Ukrainian battle plan was based on HOPES and DREAMS that the Russians would run like they did before at Kharkiv, but the political and military leadership chose to ignore that Russians haven’t fled once since Kharkiv. Even Kherson was a fighting withdrawal done in good order.
>Instead the politicians wrung their hands and screamed "we gotta do something!".
1. If you think Ukrainians are planning their military operations in order to entertain Western audiences you're moronic.
2. Ukraine still hasn't started using its main forces.
>If you think Ukrainians are planning their military operations in order to entertain Western audiences you're moronic.
No I think Ukrainian civilian leadership looked at the mass exodus and cleansing of their people in the occupied territories, as well as the ongoing bombardment of their cities, and the irrational fear we would cut them loose and demanded their army attack, when it’s become very fricking obvious these were green troops, freshly trained, that needed real experience before being ordered to breakthrough the Russian lines. >Ukraine still hasn't started using its main forces.
Yeah because they luckily figured out their original plan of charging headlong southwards and hope the Russians would break and run wasn’t working. I hope you can appreciate the irony of saying the equivalent of "just wait for the real russian army to show up" after people have taunted the Russians for nearly 1 year about that.
>these were green troops, freshly trained
And commanded by veteran officers and NCOs. And how exactly do you propose they get "real experience" other than by combat?
>charging headlong southwards and hope the Russians would break and run
Never happened outside zigger propaganda.
>B-b-b-but muh one column in a minefield!
Ever wonder what the rest of those three brigades was doing while that one company had a run of bad luck?
yeah, consdiering Russian AA and Air is pathetic, and America's doctrine is literally just "Bomb the shit out of anything that moves until it doesn't then bomb it some more, then move in"
Thing is, we can't directly get involved, and this proxy war is bleeding the ruskies dry with minimal investment, so it's a win win for everybody.
It’s only a win win for the people who are profiting/benefit of the war, which is not the average Ukrainian or Russian citizen.
Ukrainians are not being genocided so that's a benefit.
The fact it's gone on this long and foreign aid has only given what is contextually pennies should have told you everything. If they want and can bleed russia dry from their sunken-cost fallacy in this "3 day operation", then they are more than willing to sacrifice Ukrainian to do it.
It's a win for the world because the subhumans puccians have infested this world for too long and they must be exterminated. TZD
All hail the mobik cube
Sure. Blame Putin.
I'd argue it's a win for Ukraine on the grounds that it's the only thing stopping Russia from genociding them.
Who cares? Innocent people die in wars all the time and nobody notices, this war is significant only for its geopolitical implications. Without the context of bleeding our old cold war foe dry, this war would be as important as the Ethiopian civil war, which last year killed more people than have died in Ukraine and nobody gave a shit.
Ukrainian people benefit from the deaths of Russians, since Russians have been waging a campaign of extermination.
You can blame Putin for that. This is not a "both sides" war.
This. Ukraine has done a good job against Russia, but the US is on a completely different level. The intelligence networks would locate all of Russia's air defense in an area. A mass flight of stealth craft would erase the air defense then the endless waves of traditional airpower would wipe the defenses out.
The USAF would be limited by not being allowed to attack Russia. That lets Russia park its SAMs on the border and shoot at American jets with impunity.
The moment one SAM on the border fires at American air forces would be the moment that territory becomes fair game and all the smug pro-war Muscovites start getting firebombed.
Even if that were the case the fact that Russia would need to park all of its AA on the other side of the border would massively curtail its ability to use said AA to protect its occupied territory. If Russia pulled all its SAMs to its recognized territory the USAF would be uncontested over Sevastapol.
Russia wouldn't do that. They have loads of SAMs in Crimea and then the black sea fleet. USAF wouldn't be able to dislodge them easily.
The implication is that the USAF wouldn't attack recognized Russian territory to prevent escalation, so by putting their SAMs behind their borders would stop the US from destroying them. I was simply pointing out that such a scenario would only work to Russia's detriment because it'd reduce extant AA capability over important areas. Even if the USAF was operating under such a restrictive ROE there would be nothing stopping them from engaging the Black Sea Fleet or carrying out ground attacks with standoff munitions from safe areas.
USAF doesn't give a frick lmao. They will go cross country if needed to if the threat of AA goes beyond the borders.
>I can shoot the police cars from my bedroom window and that means they can't come get me.
The US is the only one that has to be appeased about who is a war target. If the US decides that Russian soil is fair game for their bombing then it's settled. What are you gonna do about it after all?
See US territory as fair game and nuke it. What is the US gonna do? Nuke Russia back? Congrats, now both sides are dead.
Sure Ivan.
>attack US assets
>expect them not to hit back
Besides, Russia doesn't have working nukes.
last time i checked russians are eating better than us.
Listen to me Ivan, you've got to tell them. Onions Z is mobiks.
Russians eat only the finest meats, aged and fermented to perfection.
How can western basedboys even compete?
>yeah, consdiering Russian AA and Air is pathetic
you do realise this is LITERALLY the first war that we saw mordern AA do their job right?
for the better part of the war it was overcast so laser guided munitions couldnt work thus giving the AA free meals
this is what would have happened to usa as well
sure you can argue that usa will be more efficient than ukraine but in the end they gonna lose a lot of planes too
>slavs arent being genocided and its a good thing
found the tourist that the only history he knows is from the 90s and afterwards
and what gonna invoked article 5?
they cant
and usa surely wont go balls deep on a war alone
facepalm.exe
>Cloud cover impedes munitions
Sounds like a skill issue.
>Russia cannot defeat one army
>But what if another country's military joined Ukraine?
>Could Russia also not defeat two armies?
Maybe in a "too many cooks ruin the soup" (or however the saying goes) situation, like Russia's issue with Wagner. Which I doubt because I can't see a reality in which ukrainian command and US command would bicker and fight similarly to Russia and Wagner.
>air support would have been used to support from the air
real strategic genius here
I’d have air power support from the ground, who would expect that? Nobody, that’s who!
tl;dr US operations assume at least local massive superiority in support fires and air power. So when your breaching element inevitably becomes vulnerable and gets stuck in the mines, the enemy cannot observe you because you're laying a frickton of smoke, they cannot shell you because your airstrikes destroyed all their artillery, their AD cannot stop your air because a coordinated SEAD/DEAD effort by artillery, rotary, and fixed wing has suppressed them, and blah blah blah.
Even then the breach is still a very delicate and dangerous operation and very easy to frick up, and almost doomed if you don't have fire superiority. Notice how Ukrainian efforts have shifted primarily from trying to gain ground to trying to destroy as many tubes and ammo dumps as possible. You simply cannot penetrate a staric defense without massive fire superiority.
Those static defensive positions are juicy targets for US precision weapons though.
Good post. The amount of things Ukraine needs to mount a successful counter offensive is pretty vast. Way more than trickle feeding them cluster munitions or F-16s. I would really love to see replay of Desert Storm in Ukraine but that is never going to happen.
I was warning about this for weeks, but jannies and /k/opers wouldn’t listen, and preferred to prune my threads. Ukraine should have waited to build up their air force, and for the sanctions to take effect. Only then would it have been suitable to attack.
Instead the politicians wrung their hands and screamed "we gotta do something!". Now all Ukraine’s got to show for it is thousands of wounded and dead, destroyed tanks we can’t replace anytime soon, and the frontline moving at a pace similar to the Great War.
reminder that the entire Ukrainian battle plan was based on HOPES and DREAMS that the Russians would run like they did before at Kharkiv, but the political and military leadership chose to ignore that Russians haven’t fled once since Kharkiv. Even Kherson was a fighting withdrawal done in good order.
>Instead the politicians wrung their hands and screamed "we gotta do something!".
1. If you think Ukrainians are planning their military operations in order to entertain Western audiences you're moronic.
2. Ukraine still hasn't started using its main forces.
>If you think Ukrainians are planning their military operations in order to entertain Western audiences you're moronic.
No I think Ukrainian civilian leadership looked at the mass exodus and cleansing of their people in the occupied territories, as well as the ongoing bombardment of their cities, and the irrational fear we would cut them loose and demanded their army attack, when it’s become very fricking obvious these were green troops, freshly trained, that needed real experience before being ordered to breakthrough the Russian lines.
>Ukraine still hasn't started using its main forces.
Yeah because they luckily figured out their original plan of charging headlong southwards and hope the Russians would break and run wasn’t working. I hope you can appreciate the irony of saying the equivalent of "just wait for the real russian army to show up" after people have taunted the Russians for nearly 1 year about that.
The real Russian army did show up and got fricking obliterated.
>these were green troops, freshly trained
And commanded by veteran officers and NCOs. And how exactly do you propose they get "real experience" other than by combat?
>charging headlong southwards and hope the Russians would break and run
Never happened outside zigger propaganda.
>B-b-b-but muh one column in a minefield!
Ever wonder what the rest of those three brigades was doing while that one company had a run of bad luck?
Very subtle
>Dude just get air superiority it's that simple.
Uh, US, not everyone can do that.
Yes. Operation Desert Storm took 2 days, but it is easy to forget it was preceded by 42 days of hardcore air bombing.
>Operation Desert Storm took 2 days
No it didn't. It took 6 months, 3 weeks and 5 days.