Will the ukraine war end like the winter war? It seems the most likely that Russia will keep small amounts of ukraine but politically lose by way of massive sanctions and looking like chumps forevermore
Will the ukraine war end like the winter war?
Will the ukraine war end like the winter war? It seems the most likely that Russia will keep small amounts of ukraine but politically lose by way of massive sanctions and looking like chumps forevermore
Need to see how the counter offensive plays out to make any real long term predictions of exactly how things will shake out.
Ukraine will return to its pre 2014 borders and also take the russian caucuses
go back
>>>/r/+TheDonald
>>>/l/+eftypol
Letting Russia 'gain' anything from this gives them carte blanche to do it again in a decade or two. It also gives the green light to every other nation who wants more clay. Basically saying 'Just play this long enough for one side to give up, you'll get what you want'. If the argument is then 'Well that won't happen because those nations don't have nukes' then nukes become a goal in and of itself. I.e, you're immune to action because you can just waggle nukes at people.
Nukes have beena goal in and of themselves since at least Lybia, it's just that most countries aren't capable of it
>Letting Russia 'gain' anything from this gives them carte blanche to do it again in a decade or two. It also gives the green light to every other nation who wants more clay. Basically saying 'Just play this long enough for one side to give up, you'll get what you want'. If the argument is then 'Well that won't happen because those nations don't have nukes' then nukes become a goal in and of itself. I.e, you're immune to action because you can just waggle nukes at people.
Exactly.
Thus, Russia must not only lose, they must lose completely, and have NOTHING WHATSOEVER to show for it.
I honestly don't think Russia has working nukes at this point. I think the only reason NATO and allies aren't supplying Ukraine with anything better is because they want to bleed Russia completely dry.
Everyone's sick of Russia's shit at this point. THe nation is a relic of an age that no longer exists, and it's annoying to have to deal with the dinosaurs in that frozen shithole everytime they start shit with a neighbor.
It's more fiscally and socially responsible to let Russia kill themselves at the expense of killing a few more Ukranians and making them uncomfortable for a while.
It's really the perfect scenario to get rid of them as a piece on the board once and for all.
>I honestly don't think Russia has working nukes at this point.
The problem with this assertion is that if it's even slightly incorrect, tens of millions die.
>The problem with this assertion is that if it's even slightly incorrect, tens of millions die.
I don't think that many would die, considering the scale and age of their nukes.
Russia itself has shown they are incompetent on the global scale, they can't even hit targets with regular missiles. If they did manage to hit anything, it'd probably be themselves, and the second they launched one nuke, they would be crushed instantly.
Would literally be the last thing Russia ever did, it would cease to exist after that, and you said yourself, you can't allow them to get away with this just because they have nukes.
>he thinks counter-value strikes are a real think
look at this man and laugh
>I honestly don't think Russia has working nukes at this point.
Irrelevant. They claim they do and threaten to use them daily. The only response is to assume they have them and intend to use them and relentlessly treat them that way until every single one of those frickers are dead, and every unke is accounted for.
Full. Stop.
>Irrelevant. They claim they do and threaten to use them daily.
it's not irrelevant, intelligent inference says they don't or they would've used even one.
>The only response is to assume they have them and intend to use them and relentlessly treat them that way until every single one of those frickers are dead, and every unke is accounted for.
Nah, this slow bleed em dry is fine, and it'll be cruel, but I'd rather we just called their bluff, would be funny to watch them blow themselves up trying to launch one.
NATO should have started launching airstrikes on Russian troops concentrations in Ukraine on February 25, 2022 if they wanted to prevent nuclear proliferation.
Indeed. I called my representatives and demanded it, but sadly Washington remains unresponsive to the will of the people.
Why bother attacking Russia when they have no nukes and no army?
>nukes
I actually wonder if anyone would risk a total nuclear war and retaliate to a single strategic russian nuke on some shithole country. I imagine Russia could get away with it and all the west would do is say "we demonize their actions blah blah."
Would the whole world be willing to end itself because of russia?
>inb4 boomers will take us all out if its the last thing they do because russia was their lifelong bogeyman
The communicated intention in such a case is to fight russia with conventional means. That is enough to make sure they gain nothing out of it - and I think that is part of the reason russia does not use nukes.
Im completely ok with that scenario though.
1. Don't sanction Russia at all. Not even a little.
2. Dont' frick around with small bits of support here and there, send oceans of material from the start and literally write Ukraine a big check to have 500,000 men under arms and a million in reserve.
And just let the war happen.
>Letting Russia 'gain' anything from this gives them carte blanche to do it again in a decade or two
If they can. Never underestimate your opponent and all that, but barring a miracle the Russian army will be in no shape to invade anyone in the next 30 years.
>If they can. Never underestimate your opponent and all that, but barring a miracle the Russian army will be in no shape to invade anyone in the next 30 years.
BArring a regime change and complete eradication of their kleptocracy, Russia will never be a super power ever again.
Think about it:
They have no production facilities for any of their military.
They have no modern engineers or ability to compete with top end or mid end tech.
They can't refine oil like the west can.
They have no real exports to sell, even if they weren't sanctioned. They cannot train competent soldiers.
They've lost almost all of their military might in a single year
Their commanders and governors are incompetent thieves and cannot improve the country in any way
Honestly, they're fricked six ways to sunday, they're done for on the world stage unless they somehow birth an Alexander the great tier figure.
Don’t forget the brain drain lol. Most of the Russians that fled in the last 2 years have been educated and middle class. Like hundreds of thousands of IT workers bailed. 15,000 millionaires left.
Yeah, that's what I meant by them not being able to train good soldiers, and not being able to produce near peer tech. Frankly I'm surprsied any millionaires still live in Russia willingly, maybe it's a reign in hell over serving in heaven thing if all their assets are Ruskie centric?
The ones that didn't flee probably got consrcipted and are currently dying in Ukraine, which is incredibly grim. surprised Putin hasn't stolen their wealth as well.
Yup, I’m still worried about how far Russia can go with its Soviet-era weapons stock, *but* there’s no way around the fact that the vast majority of their current army power was only made possible by the combined resources of Soviet Union, and Russia alone will never ever be able to build anything in amounts like that unless a literal miracle happens to their society. A regional threat they may still be in couple of decades, but a super power? No fricking way.
>Yup, I’m still worried about how far Russia can go with its Soviet-era weapons stock, *but* there’s no way around the fact that the vast majority of their current army power was only made possible by the combined resources of Soviet Union
I'm not worried really, I would've been years ago, but after seeing them get clowned on by a 2nd world country like Ukraine, and losing the majority of their weapons, from the ones that aren't rusted out shit buckets, I have zero faith in any of their military power. They got complacent.
>Russia alone will never ever be able to build anything in amounts like that unless a literal miracle happens to their society.
Would take them birthing a miracle figure that could
a. birth a great leader like Alexander the great
b. kill all kleptocracy beneficiaries and their ilk
So not likely at all.
>Ukraine literally prevented WW3.
They did, but really, it would've just been a rofl stomp. Could you imagine everyone gearing up to face Russia and then just curbstomping them with the advance forces face rolling into Moscow? If China joined in , they would've been mortified.
then they'll invade someone in 31 years
That didn't stop them now either. Russians will happily invade stuff and suffer horrendous losses, if it means they get to destroy a town or two for their leader.
Might well be.
The west is not supplying ukraine to the point where a total russian defeat is a foregone conclusion. So IMO western leaders (especially americans, who are basically the only ones with real agency here) don't consider it necessary.
And it should be considered: Russia is a country with thrice the population and almost ten times the economy of ukraine. And it suffered tremendous losses, internal turmoil, western sanctions from this war. If all they get out of it is a minor amount of now mostly uninhabitated ukrainian land, that is still a strong deterrent for any other nation.
the ukrainian’s, being slavs themselves, have said over and over again that they understand the russian intentions perfectly and it’s guaranteed that whether there is an official end to the war or not they are probably going to arm themselves to the teeth and the U.S. will see to it that it happens.
i wouldn’t be surprised if they try to develop nukes as a threat as well.
Doubt the ruskies will fall for that shit again. It's 12 ukies to every 1 ruskie. We can slava ukranini all we want, but moron russian wave tactics will either ultimately exhaust the ukies or politically collapse russia.
What metric are you basing this off of? Both sides are fielding relatively similar amounts of men and Ukraine is losing significantly less men being on the defensive. 12 to one in what?
This reads like a Russian trying to do a murican impression tbh senpai
If Ukraine can retake territory all the way to Mariupol (which seems possible) it seems inevitable they'd be able to retake Crimea.
Cutting off the Bridge and all land access to the peninsula would make it practically impossible for Russia to resupply the entire oblast, which would be extremely hard to do just with boats, even if they aren't intercepted.
It actually seems harder for them to recapture the Donbass since it has direct connection to Russia and it's heavily populated and on a reasonable geographically defensive position.
>It actually seems harder for them to recapture the Donbass
It may actually be easier as a new report shows they have a massive water shortage with many major towns saying they only get 2 hours of water usage a week
The Ukraine War will definitely continue until Putin dies. Once he is gone, his successor will probably try to negotiate peace terms. That being said, the conflict could last another decade
Russia's AF is largely intact and Ukraine's AD is running very low. I think that is the critical battle in this war.
Based on what, your ass?
Based on the amount of losses Russia has had visually confirmed in the war, the fact Russia has been using the RuAF as a system of launching missiles and shit at Ukrainian cities and the intel leak that says Ukraine is dangerously low on AA systems.
Not that anon, either, but this shit is out there. You can just search for it yourself.
leaked NATO estimates you coping homosexual
Now imagine this war if the Russians had instead invaded along Ukraine's eastern border and locked them out of receiving reinforcements and resupply of any kind.
Only if the west decides they'd rather let Russia win than give money to raytheon and lockheed, which seems unlikely to me
Right now it looks like that is what's happening though. Happy to be proved wrong. Things could have been a lot different with a few Gripens, and yet Sweden decided they "need them more than Ukraine".
I was thinking more of SAMs, which are being supplied but slowly.
Wasn’t the original point of the Winter War to completely annex Finland?
No. They wanted a few key areas. But then Stalin decided, against recommendations from his generals who said they lacked enough artillery shells, that they should just grab the whole thing while they’re at it. When it was all said and done they got the areas they’d originally wanted plus just a little bit more.
Funny how Soviet soldiers were given instructions to stop at the Swedish border after steamrolling Finland and how they marched in with their parade gear and brass bands in tow, ready for a parade in Helsinki.
They tried to grab the whole country, just like they did with the Baltic republics.
>bunch of forums I frequent suddenly all begin talking about winter war and the Ii nevitable Russian victory
Yeah totally not a new round of vatnik spam, am so demoralized
I feel like Iran-Iraq War is the most likely situation. Russia totally fricks up it's initial invasion, Ukraine claws back ground, Ukraine gets a shit ton of support from the West(but not quite enough to be decisive), Ukraine manages to reestablish post-2014 borders, Ukraine gets overconfident, Ukraine pushes forward with a huge but ultimately failed offensive, and the war basically becomes a decadelong slog after that as global attention fades slowly but surely, most likely results in post-2014 borders being the most likely scenario. I could be wrong, you could be wrong, but this is most likely imo.
>feel like Iran-Iraq War is the most likely situation. Russia totally fricks up it's initial invasion, Ukraine claws back ground, Ukraine gets a shit ton of support from the West(but not quite enough to be decisive), Ukraine manages to reestablish post-2014 borders, Ukraine gets overconfident, Ukraine pushes forward with a huge but ultimately failed offensive
I do't know how you could think this when Russia lost all of it's military might in the first offensive and is now drafting a fleeing population for another human wave zerg rush.
Seriously, they have no armor, no air, no navy, and no resources. They can't replace any of these things with manufacturing since they got rid of most of them and all their engineers fled or sold out, and now nobody but China will trade with them.
Iran and Iraq had mroe valuable resources than Russia and were located more centrally to global interests. Additionally, they weren't completely hostile nations to the world despite everything going on there.
Maybe it'd be close if the US was a dying superpower with no military might, and everyone hated the middle east, but they don't. Unironically the middle east was better equiped to current day Russia.
True, but much like Iran after the recapture of Khorramshahr Russia is increasingly totalitarian and is making this war an existential one. And much like Iran, despite having inferior industry and increasingly inferior kit, it has two very valuable things: Manpower and Airpower. Also
>Iran and Iraq had more resources than Russia and were located more centrally to global interests
Russia has almost identical influence to those to countries in hydrocarbons and has similar influence in grain, fertilizer, and rare earth materials. I'm not at all a /misc/ack, but to say Russia now has jack shit influence on the global economy compared to Iran and Iraq circa the 1980s is a lie. Also, Russia is still doing shenanigans in Syria and Libya, which on the other hand are very central to global geopolitical interests. Remember that every analyst in the world thought Iran would buckle after their tanks were destroyed and Khorramshahr was captured, but all that happened was the regime doubled down and put everything into the war effort, in spite of all the negative outcomes of that decision. I feel like Russia's regime is now in a similar dire situation, willing to sacrifice literally everything to gain or hold ground, no matter how fricking stupid or brutal they get.
>And much like Iran, despite having inferior industry and increasingly inferior kit, it has two very valuable things: Manpower and Airpower. Also
It doesn't though, they "allegedly" have a decent airforce they can't use because of AA, but we already know their most advanced fighters are gone, the rest are of questionable quality rusting in depots, and they shot down their own men even. It's a joke
As for man power, most fighting age men are either, dead, conscripted, or fleeing. They had to force 400k to join in and they're already in the meat grinder. They don't have the Chinese numbers.
>Russia has almost identical influence to those to countries in hydrocarbons and has similar influence in grain, fertilizer, and rare earth materials.
I wouldn't give them grain, or fertilizer, I don't think that's a major export from there, rare minerals and gasoline sure, but again, they don't really have the technical know how or infrastructure to extract it themselves.
>I'm not at all a /misc/ack, but to say Russia now has jack shit influence on the global economy compared to Iran and Iraq circa the 1980s is a lie
It's negligible compared to what they think they have and what the world thinks they have. Their biggest influence is on the europeans countries since they get most of their oil from them, and while that's huge I can't think of much else they offer.
They aren't like China who has all of those things in spade, and is also annexing most of Africa for rare earth materials and food/soil. exports.
>I feel like Russia's regime is now in a similar dire situation, willing to sacrifice literally everything to gain or hold ground, no matter how fricking stupid or brutal they get.
You're right, thing is, unlike the middle east, they don't have the people's support and they don't have the manpower to fight. The middle east was unironically better equipped to fight with a better military, logistics, weapons, etc.
Russia's fighting with more than subpar forces.
>It doesn't though, they "allegedly" have a decent airforce they can't use because of AA, but we already know their most advanced fighters are gone, the rest are of questionable quality rusting in depots, and they shot down their own men even. It's a joke.
Again, the thing isn't that the Russian air force is the greatest air force around, it's that it is vast, largely in tact, and poses a serious threat if Ukrainian AA ever falters, which it potentially could. Then, Russia gains a serious upper hand despite former Warsaw Pact countries dumping their Migs for Ukraine simply because of Russian quantity.
>It's negligible compared to what they think they have and what the world thinks they have. Their biggest influence is on the europeans countries since they get most of their oil from them, and while that's huge I can't think of much else they offer.
Grain. Russia and Ukraine are huge grain exporters, particularly to the Middle East and developing countries in the global South. Russia is also a huge exporter of fertilizer to these countries. This is why you see a lot of pro-Russian tards claim the developing world would starve to death if the West ever went harder in Ukraine, which is not true. However, Russia is undeniably a super influential fertilizer and grain exporter. I have a great article here from a couple months ago about Russian fertilizer: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/metals-and-the-invasion-russian-potash-exports-rebound-expansion-at-risk-74389396
>They aren't like China who has all of those things in spade, and is also annexing most of Africa for rare earth materials and food/soil. exports.
Wagner is literally turning large swathes of Africa into colonies for material exploitation. Mali, Mozambique, Sudan, the CAR, Libya, Chad, and several others are slowly being taken over by Wagner contracts in spite of their failures in Africa.
>Wagner is literally turning large swathes of Africa into colonies for material exploitation. Mali, Mozambique, Sudan, the CAR, Libya, Chad, and several others are slowly being taken over by Wagner contracts in spite of their failures in Africa.
oh noes, as apposed to us doing it?
>Again, the thing isn't that the Russian air force is the greatest air force around, it's that it is vast, largely in tact, and poses a serious threat if Ukrainian AA ever falters, which it potentially could
I don't believe this especially since in the first months of the war, all of them got shot down. I've not yet seen any proof of their actual airforce.
>fertilizer
I wasn't aware of this, but I imagine it wouldn't impact those countries severely. America is a giant exporter of most of the world's food. It'd just drive prices up and supply down. I still see teh gas as more serious for the euros.
>Wagner
sure, they do work there, but the majority of the colonization is Chinese led. , this isn't a debate. If Russia suddenly got cut down, and he went schizo, he would be removed, and China would take over. Else Western "peace keeping" would come down there and do the same.
They're a big player glbally, but it's not like China or America. They're more on the scale of South America imho.
>I don't believe this especially since in the first months of the war, all of them got shot down. I've not yet seen any proof of their actual airforce.
Perun has actually done a great video about why the Russian Aerospace Forces have seen such limited use in Ukraine despite their vast size and capability. Fascinating stuff that gave me a totally different perspective on the aerial war in Ukraine. I'd love to hear your thoughts about it because it is one of my favorite vids from him about the war: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PCg-ba9tRI
>America is a giant exporter of most of the world's food. It'd just drive prices up and supply down.
Difference is in the global South, who simply can't afford to buy American foodstuffs or fertilizer in bulk and never have, so they continue reliance on Russia despite Western pressure to wean off of it. That is the crux of the issue in places like Nigeria, Pakistan, etc.
>the majority of the colonization is Chinese led
Again, true. But Wagner is an unofficial co-belligerent of China in these operations in Africa. China benefits from Wagner for a myriad of reasons just like the Russian state does.
>A giant force of people who aren't competent and aren't willing to fight ideologically is practically worthless.
You gravely underestimate the totality of the regime in Russia as well as the sheer size of Russia in population. There are 7.5 million aimless young men in the country age 20-34 and you better believe a very large chunk of them are radicals or are being radicalized. Spend any time in Russian online spaces or talking to Russians and you will get a taste of just how fricking nuts they are. They feel as if they have nothing else to lose, i.e sunk cost fallacy.
>Spend any time in Russian online spaces or talking to Russians and you will get a taste of just how fricking nuts they are. They feel as if they have nothing else to lose, i.e sunk cost fallacy.
Not that anon but I think this is a good discussion, and respectfully I would say that the competency part is important. On the one hand, Russia might have a shitload of possible ideologically-motivated cannon fodder to throw at Ukraine, but on the other hand, who's going to train that cannon fodder? Wasnt one of the big mistakes they made was throwing their training units at Ukraine or something? Meanwhile, the Ukies can always send their young men to Germany and Poland to get trained and equipped. So even if Russia has a 4 to 1 advantage in quantity, it seems to me the technical quality the Ukrainians will likely maintain can outweigh that to a great extent.
>You're right, thing is, unlike the middle east, they don't have the people's support and they don't have the manpower to fight. The middle east was unironically better equipped to fight with a better military, logistics, weapons, etc.
Russia's fighting with more than subpar forces.
Russia's MOD may be a complete joke but they are Napoleon and Nguyen Giap compared to the commanders in the Iran-Iraq War. I'd highly recommend you look into that conflict given the absolute disregard for strategy, competence, and organization both sides had in that war. And as for support, this is something we will have to wait and see going forward. Remember that the reason Saddam was so overconfident in invading Iran was because he thought the public would turn fast against the Ayatollahs given they had everything going wrong for them, only for the Ayatollahs to politically turn it around after Khorramshahr. Russia has yet to get to that point, but when it does, whether Russia collapses or successfully doubles down will be something we have to witness for ourselves. Nobody knows what will happen here or in Russia, we simply have to see. And remember, Russia and Ukraine are very demographically similar countries with youth populations in similar crises, but one has nearly four times the population of the other. Even if Russia fails ridiculously, they will always have more troops to spare than Ukraine in any given context.
>And remember, Russia and Ukraine are very demographically similar countries with youth populations in similar crises, but one has nearly four times the population of the other. Even if Russia fails ridiculously, they will always have more troops to spare than Ukraine in any given context.
I don't think it's similar, given Ukrainians want to fight, and Russians are fleeing or being conscripted en masse. A giant force of people who aren't competent and aren't willing to fight ideologically is practically worthless. There's a reason our military doesn't let you in if you're sub 80 IQ.
I frankly do not think Russia can successfully double down after the absolute thrashing they've taken on the front. They've lost damn near everything, soon they'll be fighting with rifles and shitty trenches only against a fully functional well equipped, fortified military.
I also wouldn't say the Ruskies and Ukrainians are similar demographically, maybe closer to Moscow, but not in general.
I'd also want to state, I think this whole thing is simply being done to remove Russia from the board as a super power.
The war will be dragged out as long as possible to kill or force to flee every last fighting age Russian out, destroy their kleptocracy, dismantle the remnants of the soviet ghost, and finally install a puppet government the West can siphon those natural resources out of that Russia squandered.
There's a huge benefit to globalists, and really, everyone involved, if Russia is killed and balkanized.
It's like cutting up a piece of meat. The price is simply a few Ukranians, which given the benefits of their sacrifice, they'd be all for this too.
I know this is bait built do Russians actually see the Winter War as nothing more then a failure?
as long as the enemy suffers higher human casualties, it's a win for russia.
this is why thy never lose
Majority of russians don't know about winter war.
>It seems the most likely that Russia will keep small amounts of ukraine
Soviets won because Finnish army had much less men, ammunition, armor, aircrafts. Everything, Finns had to end the war fast or else Soviets would just take over the country
Russia is not Soviet Union, they don't have unlimited numbers of mobiks, tanks or ammunition to pull from
it will last many years, it will grind to a halt in a stalemate that results in a ceasefire and a DMZ
The absolute minimum precondition for peace is status quo antebellum (i.e. February 23, 2022) and a return of all Ukrainian citizens kidnapped by the Russian Federation.
Anything less is going to be a non-starter
So no, this will not be a repeat of the Winter War because Russia will gain NOTHING except a hefty bill.
Feb 2022 isn't on the table, and never was. Pre-2014 is the minimum starting point, and it really needs to be pre-1993.
Being moderate, I advocate clearing everything back to the pre-1914 borders. Any vatnik that doesn't de-occupy Ukrainian clay gets mulched and plowed into the soil.
>Pre-2014 is the minimum starting point, and it really needs to be pre-1993.
Wait, what land did Ukraine lose to Russia between 1993 and 2014?
Would Ukraine accept ceding territory to Russia if NATO promised them guaranteed membership after hostilities end? That's the only way I could picture them ceding territory, barring an outright defeat at Russia's hands (which is incredibly unlikely)
depends how much territory
NATO cannot make such promises without every country in it agreeing. And for example hungary has proven themselves as total russophiles.
At the best Ukraine would get security guarantees from yanks and brits, but if I were them I would be sceptical how effective that would be.
Not to mention that the west wont regognize any peacedeal that ends up with Russia gaining land, so it would be pointless anyway
>but if I were them I would be sceptical how effective that would be.
Why? The US and Uk have shown to be willing to back you. If the guarantee was on the line of "if you get invaded we declare war on the invader" then why wouldn't they take it?
The US already gave Ukraine a security guarantee when it turned over its USSR nuclear stockpiles. The US *should* have put boots on the ground in 2014, but they didn’t, and right now, but they haven’t. A security guarantee isn’t worth much if the country in question has to prove that they can resist the initial invasion from an external military force before the security guarantors step in to help (and still only indirectly through intelligence, equipment and training). The reality of the political situation is that if a nation has not allowed the US to build military bases on its territory (or is in NATO already), then the US’s involvement in its territorial defence will have less/nothing to do with past security guarantees and more to do with the domestic political and geopolitical climate. So why would any nation accept concessions for a security guaranty that isn’t guaranteed?
how much land are we talking, and how useful is that land?
It'd have to be very little of a trade off for them to go for that, I wouldn't want to give Putin an inch, especially after I whooped his ass as badly as Ukraine has.
No.
>Winter war ended with an easy soviet victory
what reality do you fricking live in?
Yes. Crimea will stay Russian forever.
Crimea is an easier nut to crack than Donetsk or Luhansk.
Then why are all the Russians fleeing?
Armchair Warlord would describe it as an orderly relocation to a more easily defensible position.
Because unlike in Kiev govt held territories they are free to leave combat zones.
Crimea isn't a combat zone yet
>Then why are all the Russians fleeing?
Most of them were drafted against their will for a country that doesn't serve them. There's no reason to stay or do their jobs right because it doesn't benefit them at all.
kek
>Will the ukraine war end like the winter war?
it will end in total yankee death
The West should unironically draft all Redditors and leftists to go fight in Ukraine. They think 'utin is LE PUTLER! so it wouldn't be that hard and if any of them objects call them fascist nazi trump supporters. It would be an absolute win for everyone involved.
Winter war ended because Finland literally ran out of ammo.
This doesn't seem to be a problem for Ukraine with international support steadily flowing in.
I thought it was the USSR bombing cities
>USSR bombing cities
Funny you should mention that.
Once upon a time, USSR decided to conduct a night bombing raid campaign against the finnish capital city.
The finns knew and had prepared.
They had built a decoy in the nearby uninhabited woods with lights and all. All city lights were shut down when the night raid was inbound.
Needless to say, this bombing campaign devastated many innocent pine trees and not much else.
But the fun doesn't end there.
Finn fighters joined the leaving rus bombers' escort squadron. The commies didn't know any better with the darkness and radio silence. They flew back to base with their extra escorts, and once they were ready to land, finns opened fire, destroying both the runways and the bomber squadron. The ruskies didn't have the slightest clue what was going on before daybreak. Finn fighters returned home safely.
Pic is from Ukraine, but always related.
this is the funniest thing I've read recently,, they made a fake Ed Edd and Eddy city with lights and the vatniks bombed that instead. jfc
>Finn fighters joined the leaving rus bombers' escort squadron. The commies didn't know any better with the darkness and radio silence. They flew back to base with their extra escorts, and once they were ready to land, finns opened fire, destroying both the runways and the bomber squadron. The ruskies didn't have the slightest clue what was going on before daybreak. Finn fighters returned home safely.
I require historical documentation for this anecdote.
I'll try to dig up an adequate source before the thread 404s. Finnbros could also help, there's not much material out there in English.
Best I can do right now is to assure you that it actually happened, it's not some Sulo Kolkka/Simo Hayha style war legend.
And as far as anecdotes go, the pilots also claimed that ruskie AA became active on the airbase after they were long gone, causing several friendly fire incidents in the chaos. I left that part out as it was based on distant sounds and flashes in the horizon behind them, never directly confirmed by human eyewitnesses.
If the West had not decided to assist Ukraine after the first few months, Russia would have successfully attritted Ukraine into giving up Kharkiv, Kherson, and Donbass and they probably would have sued for peace by July, which would have basically been the trajectory of the Winter War. After that Russia would have gone on to get ready for another war but this time directed at the Baltics.
>After that Russia would have gone on to get ready for another war but this time directed at the Baltics.
Why do people say this?
They wouldn't dare attack a NATO member
Remember how Russia sat around and did nothing while Azerbaijan attacked Armenia? And not just Nagorno-Karabakh, but the parts of Armenia that are universally agreed upon to be Armenia.
Russia projects its own wants and behaviors on others, considering the way they behaved towards their own CSTO treaty obligations, they are confident that if they were to conquer Latvia or Estonia quickly enough, NATO would not intervene.
>successfully conquer the Baltics in a Blitzkrieg
>kill thousands of American soldiers already stationed there in the process
>expect America to pussy out after an insult to its national honor of this magnitude
Does no one fricking remember the last time someone made this assumption?
After the invasion I’ve recalibrated my opinion of Putin, and his stupidity, gullibility, or delusion. Who knows if his brownnosers or his brain would have said “see the west is cowed they won’t do anything”.
>"the West" had not decided to assist Ukraine
> until after the first few months
Shut your lying fricking mouth. "The West" has been assisting Ukraine since the 2014 invasion.
Had Russia succeeded in subduing Ukraine like they hoped, I'm sure they would have tried to invade the Baltics afterwards.
Ukraine literally prevented WW3.
The last man on Earth will have an SKS.
I think it should end with the Russian people being burned alive and exterminated.
everyone is acting like russia is out of the fight, I hate to say it but they'll probably drag this war out long past what most of us expect. the ukies have done very well for themselves but I keep wondering how long they can continue this, hopefully long enough for russia to frick off but it doesn't seem like russia will any time soon
>Will the ukraine war end like the winter war?
Probably. The intelligent neutral poster sees this but /k/ is bias and will kvetch if you imply Ukraine will not take Moscow with the complete collapse of Russia.
Ukraine will probably survive the war with lost territory, Russia will not collapse from lol sanctions. morons here will cheer the immense lost of life as a victory
hey man, I'm not intelligent and my Finn blood prevents me from being neutral but you're probably 100% right
>Ukraine will probably survive the war with lost territory
Ukraine isn't losing anything they didn't already hold before 2022. Russia might get to keep Donbabwe, Luganda, and Crimeastan as a consolation prize
>Russia will not collapse from lol sanctions.
No, but they will from civil war 🙂
>Will the ukraine war end like the winter war? It seems the most likely that Russia will keep small amounts of ukraine but politically lose by way of massive sanctions and looking like chumps forevermore
When the war ends, expect most of Europe to slowly lift sanctions each year. They'll be back to the former status-quo with Russia within a decade.
What the frick is that metal thing on the Jim Beam? Why is it still in the plastic?
My guess is similar situation to Vietnam war and USSR occupation of Middle East during the cold war.
Russia will get drawn into long and expensive conflict that damages their international standing and gradually withdraw over many years in pyhrric defeat.
isn't fricking gay that we can't get all the info about the war? Can I pay for some unbiased reporting that makes decent predictions? I swear to god, it's either scott ritter 500k dead hohols and ukraine is collapsing all over the front, or nafo 500k dead russians and crimea in 2 weeks.
Well, the problem with russian sources is that russians lie all the time and they don't even expect you to believe it,
But what source has claimed 500k dead russians? Crimea in 2 weeks?
And why would you pay when the best info from esteemed think tanks like RUSI to amateur OSINT like Oryx is already free?
Curiously, the updates to official Ukrainian numbers at https://www.minusrus.com/ have matched the development of Oryx numbers quite nicely, so the numbers must be accurate in a relative sense. Only after the war we will be able to tell how much their magnitude was propagandized, but they don't seem excessive given the well-established ground truths.
Oryx said to add like 20-25% to his methodology to get the possible upper limit of losses. Even then he admitted that it might not cover the total losses of the Russian army. Maybe if we subtract 10-15% from the official Ukrainian numbers we'll get a somewhat accurate estimate.
>Oryx said to add like 20-25% to his methodology to get the possible upper limit of losses.
>meaning open source intel has 75-80% of all losses on photo/video
That's bullshit but I believe it.
War is likely to end with capture of Luhansk and Crimea with maybe half of Donbas before a peace deal is reached in which Russia pays reparations to Ukraine and Putin is tried at The Hague