Targeting the main source of income is good. This is where the lack of economic diversity coming back to hit russia hard. Being a gas station is not stable if you want to wage war all the time. Another thing to note is that targeting refineries also has a cause and effect on their logistical chains. Be it civilian and military.
Money is what runs the world. Economics itself is a study on human choices based on scarcity. You interrupt their main source of income, you disrupt their operations at a wider scale. Bonus points if it signals an interruption in the supply chain, which will further make it difficult to fund the war.
>This is amerimutt thinking, they think of everything in terms of money.
And just look what that kind of thinking's done for the U.S. in terms of logistics, global power and force projection, and the Almighty Dollar as the international financial vehicle of exchange. >destillates
Turn on spell check.
>Oil destillates are necessary for both the civilian and miltary ecosystem
The Vatniks entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to freeze everyone else, and nobody was going to freeze them. At Nordstream, Nordstream 2 and half a hundred other pipelines, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind
For Ukraine it's usually not a question of asking what of all the enemy's assets would hurt the most to lose, and then choosing to blow that up. The question is what's in reach and what can be blown up the most easily.
Oil and gas is relatively easy to blow up and burns really good. Lots of exposed pipes, outdoor infrastructure, filled with flammable liquids under pressure.
Targeting a weapons factory you might spend a dozen drones to damage the roof, put a dent in a lathe, blow up some warehoused parts. WW2 proved you need a fricking stupid, unbelievable number of tons of ordinance to really shut down factories and a few drones aren't going to do that, even if you can pick the exact spot to hit off a satellite image.
Plus, oil just puts more pressure on russia in the long term. Its like 50+% of their economy. Yesterday, one drone killed 3% of their refining capability. Thats a massive return on investment. Russia has already put a ban on exports to maintain domestic supplies, and it just gets worse from there.
Absolutely, but I'd really stress long term, and it's banking a lot on the rationality of Russia after it started an irrational war.
Maybe Russia will calculate how much money they're losing in the long term and that will be reflected on the negotiating table. But if monke wants to keep prosecuting his profitless war he can mortgage Russia's whole future for it. The Russian economy is nowhere remotely close to bankruptcy or true wartime exhaustion yet. The magic of finance is the ability to say "our refinery blew up, but within a few years this war will be over and we'll have a refinery again. Loan us X money and we'll pay you back X*3 money over the next 30 years". You can even hide the cost from the population, as Russia is doing with massive interest rates to curb inflation, and placate the oligarchs with immediate bribes if necessary. Thanks in part to prewar reserves they're ages from reaching the limit on the ability to do this.
I would argue that if you could choose to have a smoking accident at the main factory that makes Lancets instead of a refinery, that would be the choice to make. It's just way easier to hit the refinery.
Russia has a C credit rating, no one is going to give them foreign loans considering their deteriorating situation. They are completely reliant on current oil and fuel sales to maintain revenues and deficit spending, they are not like the US who can just issue more bonds and every central bank in the world buys them. The more refineries they hit, the more Russia’s fragile systems will start to have shortages. They are weak because they have no real friends who will help them this time, including the Chinese.
>it's banking a lot on the rationality of Russia after it started an irrational war
That's the interesting thing about this particular autocracy and Putin's monopoly on power. If there were other any other people involved in real decision-making -- a loyal opposition, or even an oligarchy where some oligarchs are permitted to voice their own opinions -- then I'd expect at least a minority opinion that the cost/benefit analysis is terrible and they need to cut their losses.
But Putin sets policy, top-down, and those dissenting voices simply aren't allowed to exist. His desires for immortal glory as the restorer of Russia-as-Empire (and what another Anon termed "sunk cost psychosis", lol) have left him with complete tunnel vision on the goal of annexing Ukraine, cost be damned.
A rational state will eventually pull back and disengage before its economy and internal stability hit the point where it ceases to exist as a state; Russia may be in the grips of the Perfect Storm that could see it damage itself until collapse is actually feasible.
>it's banking a lot on the rationality of Russia after it started an irrational war
That's the interesting thing about this particular autocracy and Putin's monopoly on power. If there were other any other people involved in real decision-making -- a loyal opposition, or even an oligarchy where some oligarchs are permitted to voice their own opinions -- then I'd expect at least a minority opinion that the cost/benefit analysis is terrible and they need to cut their losses.
But Putin sets policy, top-down, and those dissenting voices simply aren't allowed to exist. His desires for immortal glory as the restorer of Russia-as-Empire (and what another Anon termed "sunk cost psychosis", lol) have left him with complete tunnel vision on the goal of annexing Ukraine, cost be damned.
A rational state will eventually pull back and disengage before its economy and internal stability hit the point where it ceases to exist as a state; Russia may be in the grips of the Perfect Storm that could see it damage itself until collapse is actually feasible.
Simply put if you define "winning" a war as being nothing more than if you control more territory after the war than before it, it's possible (though by no means certain) that Russia will end up "winning" control of donbass or something in this war
It's just that in the process they will turn into beeg north korea
I'm sure the shills all agree this is worth it for some random utterly destroyed territory to be added to the largest country in the world
Most of those look like something that can be assembled in a fricking shed
Everyone harps on oil being a big part of le economy and forget the part that most russian weapons are made in fricking butt nowhere in Siberia. good luck flying enough of Y-III (lmao) to the Urals, let alone Omsk.
Even European part of Russia is sparsely populated, combine that with the fact that Russian AWACS now spot things on the ground close and personal you get little early warning.
Pulling all available AA to create a shield over the frontline was fine until now, but suddenly you are stuck between choosing to cover the frontline and whatever strategic targets Ukraine chooses
Speaking of. Put some pantsus to cover refineries? Ukraine can target steel plants, or ammo manufacturing, or some other factory forcing Russia to spread its resources.
General moronness and slow reaction of Russian military. Ukraine doesn't really hide that they've dusted off some ancient guns, gave teams searchlights and made it into impromptu AA, but apparently Russian command still didn't get the memo that nothing stops them from copying the idea
Overall, as usual, I expect like 3-4 month before Russian army begins to adapt.
Russia is big and its aa systems are mostly big - they were really focused on long range systems for airspace denial - but those are not ideal when facing low flying small drones
(i still wonder how many of those ground attack s300 were in fact ukie aa that failed and fell back on cities they were meant to defend)
So how do these things hit an oil tower thousands of kilometres away? Do they fly on pre computed trajectories, or are they hooked up to starlink or something?
Can you close your eyes and pre-compute where you'll be in fifteen steps without opening your eyes? Neither can the drone. Flight is chaos.
Inertial navigation alone is what guided the V2 rocket. It's better now, but still sucks. Pic from Wikipedia.
GPS, or Starlink or other comms, will likely be jammed along the flightpath or at the destination if it's a vital target.
Modern magic juice is terrain recognition software, Mr. The Missile can overlook the kremlin and tell where the palace is the same way a Geoguesser youtuber would.
I've heard people theorize they have a cellphone chip inside them. They take off, then fly on autopilot until they reach a mobile network. Then control is re-established.
because effective defensive networks are based on discipline and training, neither of which Russia can accomplish with drunkenness and embezzlement.
wouldn't targeting weapon factories be more detrimental than targeting oil refineries? just a thought
The majority of Russia's money comes from oil and gas.
no. they are less vulnerable and visible than oil refineries.
Targeting the main source of income is good. This is where the lack of economic diversity coming back to hit russia hard. Being a gas station is not stable if you want to wage war all the time. Another thing to note is that targeting refineries also has a cause and effect on their logistical chains. Be it civilian and military.
>Targeting the main source of income is good.
This is amerimutt thinking, they think of everything in terms of money. Oil destillates are necessary for both the civilian and miltary ecosystem.
Need money to fund a war, anon.
Money is what runs the world. Economics itself is a study on human choices based on scarcity. You interrupt their main source of income, you disrupt their operations at a wider scale. Bonus points if it signals an interruption in the supply chain, which will further make it difficult to fund the war.
>necessary
Its a necessary good, but still relies on monetary value to function. Learn what supply and demand is.
>This is amerimutt thinking, they think of everything in terms of money.
And just look what that kind of thinking's done for the U.S. in terms of logistics, global power and force projection, and the Almighty Dollar as the international financial vehicle of exchange.
>destillates
Turn on spell check.
>Oil destillates are necessary for both the civilian and miltary ecosystem
The Vatniks entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to freeze everyone else, and nobody was going to freeze them. At Nordstream, Nordstream 2 and half a hundred other pipelines, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind
Do you think Russians work for free? Even under the Soviet Union this isn't true.
bro more than half of russias economy relies on oil and gas extraction, hurting these industries absolutly fricks russia
they need to smack their fractional distillation columns, that'd put them out of commission for far longer.
I really wonder if they still have the capability to make new ones.
Even then, the lead time will be years.
That is *exactly* what they've been doing.
Where the frick do you think those are?
They're at the refinery.
For Ukraine it's usually not a question of asking what of all the enemy's assets would hurt the most to lose, and then choosing to blow that up. The question is what's in reach and what can be blown up the most easily.
Oil and gas is relatively easy to blow up and burns really good. Lots of exposed pipes, outdoor infrastructure, filled with flammable liquids under pressure.
Targeting a weapons factory you might spend a dozen drones to damage the roof, put a dent in a lathe, blow up some warehoused parts. WW2 proved you need a fricking stupid, unbelievable number of tons of ordinance to really shut down factories and a few drones aren't going to do that, even if you can pick the exact spot to hit off a satellite image.
Plus, oil just puts more pressure on russia in the long term. Its like 50+% of their economy. Yesterday, one drone killed 3% of their refining capability. Thats a massive return on investment. Russia has already put a ban on exports to maintain domestic supplies, and it just gets worse from there.
Lets not forget on hitting oil also effect other products in russia. Like basic appliances and such. So cheap disposable items will become expensive.
Absolutely, but I'd really stress long term, and it's banking a lot on the rationality of Russia after it started an irrational war.
Maybe Russia will calculate how much money they're losing in the long term and that will be reflected on the negotiating table. But if monke wants to keep prosecuting his profitless war he can mortgage Russia's whole future for it. The Russian economy is nowhere remotely close to bankruptcy or true wartime exhaustion yet. The magic of finance is the ability to say "our refinery blew up, but within a few years this war will be over and we'll have a refinery again. Loan us X money and we'll pay you back X*3 money over the next 30 years". You can even hide the cost from the population, as Russia is doing with massive interest rates to curb inflation, and placate the oligarchs with immediate bribes if necessary. Thanks in part to prewar reserves they're ages from reaching the limit on the ability to do this.
I would argue that if you could choose to have a smoking accident at the main factory that makes Lancets instead of a refinery, that would be the choice to make. It's just way easier to hit the refinery.
I'm not sure how accurate it was but someone had a chart showing Russia was about 50% through it's rainy day fund as of February or so.
Russia has a C credit rating, no one is going to give them foreign loans considering their deteriorating situation. They are completely reliant on current oil and fuel sales to maintain revenues and deficit spending, they are not like the US who can just issue more bonds and every central bank in the world buys them. The more refineries they hit, the more Russia’s fragile systems will start to have shortages. They are weak because they have no real friends who will help them this time, including the Chinese.
>it's banking a lot on the rationality of Russia after it started an irrational war
That's the interesting thing about this particular autocracy and Putin's monopoly on power. If there were other any other people involved in real decision-making -- a loyal opposition, or even an oligarchy where some oligarchs are permitted to voice their own opinions -- then I'd expect at least a minority opinion that the cost/benefit analysis is terrible and they need to cut their losses.
But Putin sets policy, top-down, and those dissenting voices simply aren't allowed to exist. His desires for immortal glory as the restorer of Russia-as-Empire (and what another Anon termed "sunk cost psychosis", lol) have left him with complete tunnel vision on the goal of annexing Ukraine, cost be damned.
A rational state will eventually pull back and disengage before its economy and internal stability hit the point where it ceases to exist as a state; Russia may be in the grips of the Perfect Storm that could see it damage itself until collapse is actually feasible.
>Russia may be in the grips of the Perfect Storm that could see it damage itself until collapse is actually feasible.
Good.
Simply put if you define "winning" a war as being nothing more than if you control more territory after the war than before it, it's possible (though by no means certain) that Russia will end up "winning" control of donbass or something in this war
It's just that in the process they will turn into beeg north korea
I'm sure the shills all agree this is worth it for some random utterly destroyed territory to be added to the largest country in the world
kill the oil production = kill the russians
it was clearly his fault
Seems reasonable to me, any business should easily be able to afford Russian air defense.
SHOIGU!
HIRE THIS MAN INMENDIADLY AND GIVE HIM A LIFETIME SUPPLY OF BANANAS AT ONCE!
What hurts, is that this isn't actually a bad idea, and there's a non-zero chance of other countries following suit if it happens just once.
Lot's of oil and volatiles in one place = big boom
oil is flammable it is main source of income for russia and is also needed in their own army and economy.
They do that too, but you can't go wrong with a target that is inherently flammable and a main income source of the enemy.
Most of those look like something that can be assembled in a fricking shed
Everyone harps on oil being a big part of le economy and forget the part that most russian weapons are made in fricking butt nowhere in Siberia. good luck flying enough of Y-III (lmao) to the Urals, let alone Omsk.
Why not target both?
I don't think their drones can reach that far. If the Russians had one good idea it was squirreling their arms industry further west
Don't you mean east?
it's all in Kaliningrad bro don't believe what the news is saying
You've got a shitty little warhead on cardboard wings. Where do you aim it to take out an entire tank plant?
Even European part of Russia is sparsely populated, combine that with the fact that Russian AWACS now spot things on the ground close and personal you get little early warning.
Pulling all available AA to create a shield over the frontline was fine until now, but suddenly you are stuck between choosing to cover the frontline and whatever strategic targets Ukraine chooses
Speaking of. Put some pantsus to cover refineries? Ukraine can target steel plants, or ammo manufacturing, or some other factory forcing Russia to spread its resources.
General moronness and slow reaction of Russian military. Ukraine doesn't really hide that they've dusted off some ancient guns, gave teams searchlights and made it into impromptu AA, but apparently Russian command still didn't get the memo that nothing stops them from copying the idea
Overall, as usual, I expect like 3-4 month before Russian army begins to adapt.
Gyat damn why have I never thought of calling Pantsir "Pantsu?"
I must need to up my power level...
Nation of morons. Sorry it isn't more complex or interesting than that.
Russian air defense systems and Russian operators are non-functional
>no 1 tonne buzz bomb
gay
It's going to be really interesting to see what happens when Ukraine gets those F-16 and how that changes the war.
Russia is big and its aa systems are mostly big - they were really focused on long range systems for airspace denial - but those are not ideal when facing low flying small drones
(i still wonder how many of those ground attack s300 were in fact ukie aa that failed and fell back on cities they were meant to defend)
It turns out Human Wave attacks aren't an effective tactic against drones.
So how do these things hit an oil tower thousands of kilometres away? Do they fly on pre computed trajectories, or are they hooked up to starlink or something?
Can you close your eyes and pre-compute where you'll be in fifteen steps without opening your eyes? Neither can the drone. Flight is chaos.
Inertial navigation alone is what guided the V2 rocket. It's better now, but still sucks. Pic from Wikipedia.
GPS, or Starlink or other comms, will likely be jammed along the flightpath or at the destination if it's a vital target.
Modern magic juice is terrain recognition software, Mr. The Missile can overlook the kremlin and tell where the palace is the same way a Geoguesser youtuber would.
I've heard people theorize they have a cellphone chip inside them. They take off, then fly on autopilot until they reach a mobile network. Then control is re-established.
Air defense is hard, and the Ukrainian border is long. It'd be one thing if Ukraine were as small as the Gaza strip but... it's not.