Hearts and Minds have always been the only way to run an invasion. Be aware of the problems you are causinh for thr civilians and try to keep them to a minimum.
Insurgencies cannot be won.
More serious sorces tell about Russian advance to be earlier, but also with some bizzare suggestions like to Kiev again.
Ukies don't have demanded manpower anymore,new weapons won't help and like they something very advanced. They outflash exlosions for sparky news.
And they brag about their offensive meanwhile forbidding to say anything about about it. Cause the fear what would be said – it's impossible. And want Russians to get scared of it and delay Russian strike.
Ukraine doesn't even have a shortage of manpower yet. They're still raising new forces because they're treating this as a REAL war, not a "Special Operation" like Russia is.
Unironically 1000 Switchblades.
Literally just slaughter anything with a Russian uniform that isn't hiding for 3 days straight, then walk in while the occupation garrison survivors are hiding (or running across the bridge).
because /misc/'s entire political philosophy is based on rationalizing their discomfort with certain types of people. premise zero is "anyone who makes me uncomfortable is the enemy," and trannies make them the most uncomfortable so they are the biggest enemy.
A Kherson retake would be mindblowing
Russian propaganda is notoriously slippery and full of innuendo, however, they have made it very clear that Russia is there to stay in Kherson. It would be a literally undeniable defeat for Russia
screencap this
Russians will suddenly one day decide to fall back, same as they did with Kiev, abandoning the entire southern advance.
Shills will claim that "noo we never wanted Kherson" and "it was a feint bro, Donbas was the true goal".
Russians are mindless drones so they will follow whatever is the narrative at any given day. If you will bring up the Russian claim about staying in Kherson forever they will say its fake manufactured by CIA and that Russian officials never said anything like that, same as they still claim about Kiev.
The single most crucial thing for Russia most likely is to "liberate" the entirety of the LNR / DNR. That's the minimum they need internally to move towards ending the war. Internally. So yeah, I do think it's possible they'd abandon at least the Kherson / Kryvyi Rih axis, if push came to shove.
This friday (15th) there'll be a special session of the Duma, dealing with all sorts of war-related shit. Strelkov hinted (or rather hoped) for further escalation. Could be a nothingburger, but still interesting to keep an eye out.
There are three points speaking against abandoning Kherson, outside the obvious propaganda loss:
1.) The most likely model of annexation is the Taurida Governate, which is Zaporozhia + Kherson. Hard to do without Kherson.
2.) Kherson is important for water to Crimea.
3.) Having a bridgehead makes future """liberations""" easier.
3.5) Kherson is a valuable bargaining chip at the negotiating table.
But yeah, even with those points, Russia would still be willing to further shorten the frontline, if not doing so would jeoperdise Donbass. Personally, I believe Russia will try and hold this axis until the absolute last possible second - at the moment, I think it's very unlikely they'll abandon it any time soon.
Bonus:
There've been conflicting rumours over the past 2 weeks regarding Kherson. First: Women and children have reportedly begun evacuation 5 days ago. Second: Rosgvardia and one other unit moved their HQ back across the river, away from Kherson proper. Third: There are ports of Russians preparing for inner-city fighting in Kherson. None of this is very confirmed though.
My guess is that the Russians will abandon the part of the province that's on the western bank and thus hand Kherson city over to the Ukrainians, while simultaneously blowing up bridges to create a better defensive position. The "Taurida" plan will go through, but it will not contain Kherson city or the surrounding areas, instead it will be the part of Kherson that's east of the Dnieper plus what Russia has gained from Zaporizhia (So they won't be taking that capital either).
They will justify this with the idea that they're respecting the will of the people of the city who want to remain a part of Ukraine, but the more defensible part actually does want to secede! How convenient!
It's also possible that they'll withdraw from Kharkiv as another "feint" since it's obvious they won't be taking the city, but this I am not sure about that sine it will threaten their advance in Donbass.
Russians will say that they never wanted Kherson as it's not in Donbass. They only held it (temporarily) because dumb Ukies gave it to them. All Russians were evacuated and Russians left as a sign of good will.
nothing. ukraine has to cross a 20km wide killzone of open farmland to get there. every time they've tried it they've had another 1000-casualty day. and if they do manage to get some poor sods into kherson they have to run every single truck full of supplies over that same 20km-long killzone. short of nuking kherson then walking in to reclaim the crater, it isn't gonna happen.
how's the 18th Battle of Kherson going for your guys, piglet? lost another 1500 men charging across those wheat fields today? ohh, that's too bad, really makes me tear up. oh well, keep at it. two more weeks etc etc.
>1000 casualties >with russians blown the frick out of 3/4 fronts >with the eastern front being his horribly slow despite Russians outnumbering Ukis in the east
based ukis overestimating their casualties so they could pummel the Ruskies into submission with more western gibs like they did in Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Precise ammunition. Station some pzh close by and have them bomb approaching supply with smart while you start to wear down the Russians. It will take some time though.
Push down from Zap cut off Kherson from GLOCs while staying outside of artillery range of city.
Himars every ELINT you see for days to hit radios radar and jammer building up defense lines to prevent any Russian breakthrough and keeping russian air and air defense out of range of the city.
Once TUAS overflights to locate armor artillery and defense positions to hit with TB2s Himars M777 possibly manned aviation with PGMs once SEAD completed but using them to mostly establish air supremacy outside of manpad range of the city.
Once positions are taken out slow advance into the city dropping any buildings with called indirect fire and evacing any citizens possible outside the city.
Biggest part of the city advance will be exfiltrating every civilian possible as you advance to reduce combat confusion and collateral damage.
Recapture should be done in the slow deliberate NATO style except in this situation the civilians are yours so will be more cooperative than any of the shit we had to do in the middle east.
Additionally due to heavy minefields in the west of particular concern. While IDF is focused their artillery, AAA, command posts, comm centers, radar and EW, power generation, and supply depots. The flanks will have to be focusing on mine clearing in the west to prepare for eventual advances and the civilian evacuation routes. However the large majority of the troops will need to be focused on the Eastern flank where due to its where the Russians are going to have to breakthrough to retreat and or relive the defense.
Of final note we haven't had too many draftee/conscript wars but the NVA loud speaker style propaganda would probably be effective in this. Especially on the DPR/LPR.
The famous expample of this is Hanoi Hannah broadcasts.
technically none
theres no reason to mount a direct assault on the city
they dont even need to barrage anything outside is pure precision strikes against logistics
if they encircle the city the russians will literally give up within days, they have no backbone to survive a siege
I have heard everything from 4, to 8, to 9. They had an initial shipment of 4, the US promised another 4 and I believe they just promised another batch of 4?
I have lost count, and there is so much conflicting info. But HIMARS are definitely needed to retake Kherson. They just bombed a command post with top commanders in Kherson
>They just CLAIMED to bombed a command post with top commanders in Kherson
ftfy fren. hohols lie with every breath. remember the great counterattack at severodonetsk that had completely recaptured the city and even penetrated kilometers into russian lines? then it turns out they had been abandoning both severodonetsk AND their "impregnable fortress of lyschansk" the whole time? you /k/opers may have erased that little incident from your cum-drenched little memories, but I remember. oh yes, I remember.
It is my firm belief that Ukraine can't retake Kherson without going around the city from the Northeast direction towards Crimea simply because fighting the city head on would entail bombing their own people, which, if they're willing to do it, would have some very negative side effects as far as propaganda is concerned. If I'm proven wrong and they somehow pull this off then all the better, but retaking any populated ground sounds like a fricking mess if the russians had time to entrench properly around civilian areas and the people have nowhere to go
It's impossible. Ukorps simply doesn't have the organizational and C4 capability to attempt re-take any kind of dug-in position. To do that they'd need serious fire support, something they simply don't have. The reason why they don't have it is because they don't have combined arms forces (except maybe on paper), and don't have organic fire support of ANY kind. What they have are 60mm mortars and 30mm grenade launchers. The Ukrainian military institution is very basic and will have to fundamentally transform. It's not a matter of weapons. Even if we gave them hundreds of HIMARS they have no way to get precise targeting data quickly to fire elements. No ukorps guy can pick up a radio and call in support.
This...why Zelensky prolong suffering of brother nations??? Just give independence to rightful Russian republics and punish those responsible for Donbass genocide. Not much asked but I guess he want Twitter upvote...
zelinsky, like his buddy biden, dgaf about the death and destruction, they just want their 10% of the top for the big guys. the more they can prolong this, the more money they make.
Spend as many days as necessary to locate Russian assets with "civilian" spies, satellites and whatever intel you can get. Spend twice that tracking, looking for movement.
Ready a battery of ground to ground guided missiles and artillery (not or) to strike no less than 50 of those targets within a 15 minute window.
Hitting multiple assets at once is key to shaking their morality. They will not know how much you know, but will know you know a lot. They will not feel safe anywhere.
Honestly what the frick is Russia doing in Kherson?
The situation is untenable.
The city not only has Ukrainian military closing in, but Ukrainian INSURGENTS are all over the city. They're trying to defend a city that they don't even have secured INTERNALLY.
Which means the Russians will be attacked from the inside of the city before the Ukrainian military even gets that far.
They will probably need ATACMS to hit deep rear logistics and some form of block busting munitions and the backbone to start killing cities. This will not happen I imagine until they've unsuccessfully tried (and failed) to dislodge forces from the region by threating an encirclement and a Washington perceived escalation by the Russians (probably general mobilization or something of that magnitude).
Hearts and minds.
I chuckled.
>Hearts and minds.
The two best places to shoot people.
Hearts and Minds have always been the only way to run an invasion. Be aware of the problems you are causinh for thr civilians and try to keep them to a minimum.
Insurgencies cannot be won.
Then Russia is never going to stop dying in Ukraine as long as it continues to occupy the place, lol.
Insurgency has been building in Ukraine because the Russians are brutal & stupid, and they don't have the manpower to secure the areas they've seized.
They're not retaking it lmao
They just decapp the military leaders of Kherson.
They're stuck its supplies.
They're told the civvies to run.
They are coming.
More serious sorces tell about Russian advance to be earlier, but also with some bizzare suggestions like to Kiev again.
Ukies don't have demanded manpower anymore,new weapons won't help and like they something very advanced. They outflash exlosions for sparky news.
And they brag about their offensive meanwhile forbidding to say anything about about it. Cause the fear what would be said – it's impossible. And want Russians to get scared of it and delay Russian strike.
>Ukies don't have demanded manpower anymore,new weapons won't help and like they something very advanced. They outflash exlosions for sparky news.
Wew, lad.
The frick's this moron trying to say?
Ukraine doesn't even have a shortage of manpower yet. They're still raising new forces because they're treating this as a REAL war, not a "Special Operation" like Russia is.
more like special needs operation
>russia will keep the kherson because... they just will, okay
Unironically 1000 Switchblades.
Literally just slaughter anything with a Russian uniform that isn't hiding for 3 days straight, then walk in while the occupation garrison survivors are hiding (or running across the bridge).
This but launch tens of thousands of them from HIMARS into Russian rear lines. Repeat until they're all dead.
The Ukrainians are definitely going to be blasting a lot of Russians out of existence.
Kherson isn't just a reconquest, it's a demonstration to the Russians the war is now in Ukraine's favor.
They're going to make an example out of it.
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/2fa1138e-09e7-4c9e-8ebe-f5af4f9356bd
>muh wunderwaffle HIMArse
Cope and dilate trannies.
>I promise I won't miss next time
Yeah okay vatnik
Post CEP
>dilate trannies.
Why are vatniks so fixated on trannies?
because /misc/'s entire political philosophy is based on rationalizing their discomfort with certain types of people. premise zero is "anyone who makes me uncomfortable is the enemy," and trannies make them the most uncomfortable so they are the biggest enemy.
Russia is too poor for their trannies to transition so they see that as them being culturally superior to the west.
Howitzers, SPGs, armor of various kinds (most importantly tanks)
A rainbow flag, antifa blac bloc umbrellas, and a rubber dildo.
You mean so the sodomite Russian soldiers think youre one of them?
Honestly a Kherson retake would be fun to see
A Kherson retake would be mindblowing
Russian propaganda is notoriously slippery and full of innuendo, however, they have made it very clear that Russia is there to stay in Kherson. It would be a literally undeniable defeat for Russia
If the Ukrainians hold to their pattern, they're going to exploit the HIMARS precision and blow up a lot of Russian positions to fricking hell.
They'll lure them out in the open and blow them up.
They would claim either act od good will or feint as always.
screencap this
Russians will suddenly one day decide to fall back, same as they did with Kiev, abandoning the entire southern advance.
Shills will claim that "noo we never wanted Kherson" and "it was a feint bro, Donbas was the true goal".
Russians are mindless drones so they will follow whatever is the narrative at any given day. If you will bring up the Russian claim about staying in Kherson forever they will say its fake manufactured by CIA and that Russian officials never said anything like that, same as they still claim about Kiev.
No shit
I do love how the Russian capacity to LIE allows them to be defeated so easily, lol.
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/2fa1138e-09e7-4c9e-8ebe-f5af4f9356bd
The single most crucial thing for Russia most likely is to "liberate" the entirety of the LNR / DNR. That's the minimum they need internally to move towards ending the war. Internally. So yeah, I do think it's possible they'd abandon at least the Kherson / Kryvyi Rih axis, if push came to shove.
This friday (15th) there'll be a special session of the Duma, dealing with all sorts of war-related shit. Strelkov hinted (or rather hoped) for further escalation. Could be a nothingburger, but still interesting to keep an eye out.
There are three points speaking against abandoning Kherson, outside the obvious propaganda loss:
1.) The most likely model of annexation is the Taurida Governate, which is Zaporozhia + Kherson. Hard to do without Kherson.
2.) Kherson is important for water to Crimea.
3.) Having a bridgehead makes future """liberations""" easier.
3.5) Kherson is a valuable bargaining chip at the negotiating table.
But yeah, even with those points, Russia would still be willing to further shorten the frontline, if not doing so would jeoperdise Donbass. Personally, I believe Russia will try and hold this axis until the absolute last possible second - at the moment, I think it's very unlikely they'll abandon it any time soon.
Bonus:
There've been conflicting rumours over the past 2 weeks regarding Kherson. First: Women and children have reportedly begun evacuation 5 days ago. Second: Rosgvardia and one other unit moved their HQ back across the river, away from Kherson proper. Third: There are ports of Russians preparing for inner-city fighting in Kherson. None of this is very confirmed though.
>Russians moved some HQs out of Kherson
Unwise.
Chernobaevka is completely safe
My guess is that the Russians will abandon the part of the province that's on the western bank and thus hand Kherson city over to the Ukrainians, while simultaneously blowing up bridges to create a better defensive position. The "Taurida" plan will go through, but it will not contain Kherson city or the surrounding areas, instead it will be the part of Kherson that's east of the Dnieper plus what Russia has gained from Zaporizhia (So they won't be taking that capital either).
They will justify this with the idea that they're respecting the will of the people of the city who want to remain a part of Ukraine, but the more defensible part actually does want to secede! How convenient!
It's also possible that they'll withdraw from Kharkiv as another "feint" since it's obvious they won't be taking the city, but this I am not sure about that sine it will threaten their advance in Donbass.
Kherson will fall to Ukraine. It's only a matter of time.
Russian can take their secessionist traitor lackeys with them.
*Kyiv*
Russians will say that they never wanted Kherson as it's not in Donbass. They only held it (temporarily) because dumb Ukies gave it to them. All Russians were evacuated and Russians left as a sign of good will.
highly trained and motivated mech infantry
Dude come on don't ruin the thread for the rest of us with your truthposting
Once the bridges are in range it's more or less over. There's no way Russia can keep it people supplied indefinitely.
The Russians at Kherson have some idea of how scary HIMARS are, so they'll likely decide, "Frick this noise. Let's get out of Dodge."
Their senior commanders are dead thanks to the strike. They'll bolt without anyone watching them.
nothing. ukraine has to cross a 20km wide killzone of open farmland to get there. every time they've tried it they've had another 1000-casualty day. and if they do manage to get some poor sods into kherson they have to run every single truck full of supplies over that same 20km-long killzone. short of nuking kherson then walking in to reclaim the crater, it isn't gonna happen.
>lights up your tubes from 30km outside their max range
heh, nothin personnel kid
How is Nova Kahovka doing? You know, the place where plenty of russian ammunition and equipment was brought to from Crimea over the last two months?
> 20 km of open field is an impossible barrier to cross
how's the 18th Battle of Kherson going for your guys, piglet? lost another 1500 men charging across those wheat fields today? ohh, that's too bad, really makes me tear up. oh well, keep at it. two more weeks etc etc.
>1000 casualty day
literal hohol-tier propaganda. last time they dared move towards Herson, they lost 2 brigades + 1500 NATO SOF, give or take.
>1000 casualties
>with russians blown the frick out of 3/4 fronts
>with the eastern front being his horribly slow despite Russians outnumbering Ukis in the east
based ukis overestimating their casualties so they could pummel the Ruskies into submission with more western gibs like they did in Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Precise ammunition. Station some pzh close by and have them bomb approaching supply with smart while you start to wear down the Russians. It will take some time though.
Push down from Zap cut off Kherson from GLOCs while staying outside of artillery range of city.
Himars every ELINT you see for days to hit radios radar and jammer building up defense lines to prevent any Russian breakthrough and keeping russian air and air defense out of range of the city.
Once TUAS overflights to locate armor artillery and defense positions to hit with TB2s Himars M777 possibly manned aviation with PGMs once SEAD completed but using them to mostly establish air supremacy outside of manpad range of the city.
Once positions are taken out slow advance into the city dropping any buildings with called indirect fire and evacing any citizens possible outside the city.
Biggest part of the city advance will be exfiltrating every civilian possible as you advance to reduce combat confusion and collateral damage.
Recapture should be done in the slow deliberate NATO style except in this situation the civilians are yours so will be more cooperative than any of the shit we had to do in the middle east.
Additionally due to heavy minefields in the west of particular concern. While IDF is focused their artillery, AAA, command posts, comm centers, radar and EW, power generation, and supply depots. The flanks will have to be focusing on mine clearing in the west to prepare for eventual advances and the civilian evacuation routes. However the large majority of the troops will need to be focused on the Eastern flank where due to its where the Russians are going to have to breakthrough to retreat and or relive the defense.
Of final note we haven't had too many draftee/conscript wars but the NVA loud speaker style propaganda would probably be effective in this. Especially on the DPR/LPR.
The famous expample of this is Hanoi Hannah broadcasts.
technically none
theres no reason to mount a direct assault on the city
they dont even need to barrage anything outside is pure precision strikes against logistics
if they encircle the city the russians will literally give up within days, they have no backbone to survive a siege
>Siege of a city is only done as a last resort.
Does anyone know why the Ukrainians haven’t blown the bridge? The Russians will undoubtedly destroy it in a retreat.
A man backed into a corner will fight like a rabid dog. It's better to give them a chance to escape.
How many HIMARS are currently ACTIVE in Ukraine?
I have heard everything from 4, to 8, to 9. They had an initial shipment of 4, the US promised another 4 and I believe they just promised another batch of 4?
I have lost count, and there is so much conflicting info. But HIMARS are definitely needed to retake Kherson. They just bombed a command post with top commanders in Kherson
well going by intel slava or /chug/ somewhere in the negatives numbers
>They just CLAIMED to bombed a command post with top commanders in Kherson
ftfy fren. hohols lie with every breath. remember the great counterattack at severodonetsk that had completely recaptured the city and even penetrated kilometers into russian lines? then it turns out they had been abandoning both severodonetsk AND their "impregnable fortress of lyschansk" the whole time? you /k/opers may have erased that little incident from your cum-drenched little memories, but I remember. oh yes, I remember.
The duality of Charlie Magne Poster
APC, IFVs and tanks? Anything else and it will end in a complete disaster for Ukraine.
>complete disaster for Ukraine.
This whole conflict is already a complete disaster for Russia.
It kinda looks like Stalingrad from the air
It is my firm belief that Ukraine can't retake Kherson without going around the city from the Northeast direction towards Crimea simply because fighting the city head on would entail bombing their own people, which, if they're willing to do it, would have some very negative side effects as far as propaganda is concerned. If I'm proven wrong and they somehow pull this off then all the better, but retaking any populated ground sounds like a fricking mess if the russians had time to entrench properly around civilian areas and the people have nowhere to go
Much of their actual people have left. I'm not saying everyone abandoned the city just most on the Ukranian side would have.
They're still evacuating over a thousand people a day. Anyone who's left is going to be one of the most vulnerable who can't easily just leave.
bump
2 million Somali migrants dumped on the streets of moscow
It's impossible. Ukorps simply doesn't have the organizational and C4 capability to attempt re-take any kind of dug-in position. To do that they'd need serious fire support, something they simply don't have. The reason why they don't have it is because they don't have combined arms forces (except maybe on paper), and don't have organic fire support of ANY kind. What they have are 60mm mortars and 30mm grenade launchers. The Ukrainian military institution is very basic and will have to fundamentally transform. It's not a matter of weapons. Even if we gave them hundreds of HIMARS they have no way to get precise targeting data quickly to fire elements. No ukorps guy can pick up a radio and call in support.
This...why Zelensky prolong suffering of brother nations??? Just give independence to rightful Russian republics and punish those responsible for Donbass genocide. Not much asked but I guess he want Twitter upvote...
>Russia invades
>How dare the invaded fight back
Vodka, not even once.
zelinsky, like his buddy biden, dgaf about the death and destruction, they just want their 10% of the top for the big guys. the more they can prolong this, the more money they make.
Davy Crocket's
where did you get that map? I wanna get more of its kind
Google search.
Spend as many days as necessary to locate Russian assets with "civilian" spies, satellites and whatever intel you can get. Spend twice that tracking, looking for movement.
Ready a battery of ground to ground guided missiles and artillery (not or) to strike no less than 50 of those targets within a 15 minute window.
Hitting multiple assets at once is key to shaking their morality. They will not know how much you know, but will know you know a lot. They will not feel safe anywhere.
Honestly what the frick is Russia doing in Kherson?
The situation is untenable.
The city not only has Ukrainian military closing in, but Ukrainian INSURGENTS are all over the city. They're trying to defend a city that they don't even have secured INTERNALLY.
Which means the Russians will be attacked from the inside of the city before the Ukrainian military even gets that far.
They're delusional. As always.
>Ukrainian INSURGENTS are all over the city
MEDS. now.
Probably lot more hymars and effective air defence systems
HIMARS would probably wipe out the Russian ability to supply its defenders in a matter of hours, lol.
Then the Russians would run. They have no stomach for REAL fights.
They will probably need ATACMS to hit deep rear logistics and some form of block busting munitions and the backbone to start killing cities. This will not happen I imagine until they've unsuccessfully tried (and failed) to dislodge forces from the region by threating an encirclement and a Washington perceived escalation by the Russians (probably general mobilization or something of that magnitude).