What kind of military response would most likely emerge in the scenario where a sudden popular coup in Belarus ousts Colonel Lukashenko, and the new g...

What kind of military response would most likely emerge in the scenario where a sudden popular coup in Belarus ousts Colonel Lukashenko, and the new government demands Russian forces leave Belarus? Surely the Russian military wouldn't just accept that, it would put them in a worse position against Ukraine and a much worse strategic position against NATO, especially if the new government of Belarus was more friendly to the west.
Presumably, they'd have to invade Belarus and relieve the forces they have stationed there. What might that kind of clash look like?

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  1. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Yeah

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Never have I needed a reaction image so badly but not known it until now

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        https://i.imgur.com/B81ZLXV.jpg

        Yeah

        im more interested why the 4 tankers were specifically chosen for this

  2. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    It would be unironically the three day special military operation that Russians expected in Ukraine.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Eh? The Russians were expecting a smooth SMO because they believed >90% of Ukrainians would either welcome them or be indifferent. This scenario assumes Belarus's population is firmly anti-Putin and has removed Luka.

  3. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    yeah

  4. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    This all just assumes that the Belarus Armed Forces do nothing against the coup.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      If the coup quickly unfolds in the capital before the bulk of those forces can respond, I think that's a pretty fair assumption.
      We might not know how loyal/disloyal they really are, but I think we can generally assume a degree of apathy and opportunism, if they operate anything like Russia's internal security forces did during the Wagner coup.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Who do you think is most likely to be performing the coup?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >This all just assumes that the Belarus Armed Forces do nothing against the coup.
      NOT OUR PROBLEM.jpg

  5. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >What kind of military response
    None, they literally can't force project anymore

  6. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Would a popular uprising in belarus result in a stable democracy or will it be like the middle east?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Depends, do we count Belarussians as white?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >literally called Whiterussians
        you tell me

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I'd imagine it depends on how much they want EU gibs. If whoever takes over the country wants to go full autarky then they'll just end up with Luka 2.0.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Look how Serbia turned out after their revolution in 2000.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      assuming this is based off a successful protest movement like the one that already failed in belarus, transitional democracy more likely then not

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Having an example to look at when treading new ground is a tremendous boost, that's part of why the Baltics succeeded - hope with the EU. Belarus has that in its Western neighbours.
      So, if it weren't for the current Russian occupation, they would have a good chance.

      We are currently living through the best possible scenario for our country. The second Lukashenko stops being a president we are FUBAR like it happened in Ukraine in 1991, 2004, 2014
      t. Belarusian

      Are you saying Belarusians are a nation only good for being serfs?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >Are you saying Belarusians are a nation only good for being serfs?

        I think he's saying that East Slavs are bit like Arabs and incapable of living without constant internal frickery unless there's some strong man to frick everyone instead.

  7. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Why aren't Belarusians in Europe building a tunnel network from Poland to smuggle arms in?

  8. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    We are currently living through the best possible scenario for our country. The second Lukashenko stops being a president we are FUBAR like it happened in Ukraine in 1991, 2004, 2014
    t. Belarusian

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >best possible scenario for our country
      Being a russian wienersleeve and having the same moronic dictator cuck you for 2 decades?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        best case scenario is living in peace, getting infinite money from Russia (please pay attention that they do not ask us have gay parades like the west does with Ukraine)

        assuming this is based off a successful protest movement like the one that already failed in belarus, transitional democracy more likely then not

        We are a nation good enough not to be sacrificed in a meaningless war by the foreign leadership like it happens in Ukraine

        >Are you saying Belarusians are a nation only good for being serfs?

        I think he's saying that East Slavs are bit like Arabs and incapable of living without constant internal frickery unless there's some strong man to frick everyone instead.

        I am in no way saynig that East Slavs need any kind of conflict. We can and we must live in peace

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >(please pay attention that they do not ask us have gay parades like the west does with Ukraine)
          Instead they only ask you to get eternally cucked, to use your "sovereign" nation as a staging point for an invasion of your fellow "East Slavs", and to arrest, exile, murder and/or torture any belarusian who is man enough to speak up against your sham of a government.

          By the way, how is your based traditional society going for you?

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >infinite money from russia
          like a little child saying he gets infinite money from mommy and daddy ($10 allowance per week)

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >meaningless war by the foreign leadership like it happens in Ukraine
          Where's dirlewanger when you need him

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      That's the funny thing about this war with Russia, as much as I want TZD and a Ukrainian victory, even if that happens I wouldn't be at all surprised if we eventually end up with both East and West Ukraines anyway.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      The day is coming. You're free to hang with Luka if that's your desire.

  9. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    There will be no coup, but the fricking nanosecond it appears that Vlad might be losing any time soon, Lukashenko will emerge as a life-long democrat, liberal and friend of the West and will welcome NATO troops on his soil with open arms (after being guaranteed personal immunity, of course).

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      What does Luka have to offer though? I don't doubt for a second that more than a few EU nations would be willing to look the other way on his dictator bullshit in exchange for something valuable (like the Saudis), but what has Belarus got that the EU would want?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Besides his butthole, a (relatively) stable and competent government for a neighboring country that they now have 100% gripped by the balls, since at that point all of Luka's other bridges will be completely burned. Also, access to the country's markets however meager they might be and some industrial capacity (Belarus preserved and modernized most of their Soviet leftovers).

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >What does Luka have to offer though?
        It would make Poland’s flank much more secure.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          This.
          And another NATO staging ground as East ad possible

  10. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >east slavs
    everything east of poland is africa Black person tier as shown clearly by the last two years. it was obvious before that but only now is it visible for normalgays.

  11. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Wouldn't even a small belarussian force deciding to strike at the russians really frick over their defensive lines and couple either hit the logistics, command centers, and supply bases easily while the ukrainians and their belarussian battalions punch through and quickly crush the entire defending russian line.

    Belarussian forces and then incoming ukrainian and russian antikremlin militias could use the less defended belarussian border to pull some more.shenanigans. And belarus joins the war as another NATO puppet which a shorter defensive line, letting Ukraine concentrate more forces on a smaller front.

  12. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    people realize at this point that color revolutions are just a cover for american corporations raping a country's natural resources. wont work. all of ukraine's oil and gas was sold to haliburton and shell and financed by blackrock ten years before the war started. Color revolution warfare is IMO only effective as long as people are ignorant about it. Most people these days are aware, and the magic is gone. Not just that, but the domination of mass media by a few channels is gone too, which them harder to pull off.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Yeah cause that's totally how all the color revolutions in central Asia went down. It was all America, corporations, the CIA, blackrock, etc., etc., like every single thing that happens ever

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >all of ukraine's oil and gas was sold to haliburton and shell and financed by blackrock ten years before the war started

      Please provide source.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Mike Benz. Former state department Cyber Tsar. Hes been making the rounds on all the podcasts the last few months. Heres one of them.
        https://rumble.com/v4hgdvx-super-tuesday-election-special-03052024.html

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Thanks for the laugh

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        heres the famous tucker one

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      That's odd because in 2012 the pro-Russian coalition controlled the Ukrainian parliament. I'd have thought they would sell the country off to Gazprom or some shit rather than Western entities, unless of course you're talking complete shit which you are.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Contd.

        And no, Haliburton and Shell didn't decide, after euromaiden, to invest in a country with an ongoing internal fricking conflict, you complete mong.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          you think they made the decision on their own? rofl.

  13. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Belarussian military is largely nonexistent, as in even meme countries like Belgium could probably win against them. Ziggers would just make some false-flag and kill some more of their own citizens to blame it on "new, CIA-installed government of Belarus" then send some untrained mobiks to secure the land. After weeks of India-Bangladesh fistfight-on-the-border tier they'd succeed.

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