What is the chance of a massive WW1 style war happening in Africa this century? They have a massive surplus of young nogs and climate change will frick them
What is the chance of a massive WW1 style war happening in Africa this century?
What is the chance of a massive WW1 style war happening in Africa this century? They have a massive surplus of young nogs and climate change will frick them
50/50, it either happens or it don't
>what are the chances of Western countries sending Western soldiers to die in a massive war for African countries
Somewhere between 0% and 0%.
Nobody said this
no one didn't say it either homosexual, stop being obtuse
>climate change
Why are there so many homosexual OPs today?
Why wouldn't thirdies frying be based?
What exactly would make it a WW1 style war?
Until they all come to the places that have their shit together. I know plenty of people with Ds on their voter registration cards because shit is going to get wild once the oceans start rising.
I live on a hill and plan to be dead within the next 40 years so whatevs.
*I know plenty of people with Ds on their voter registration cards who support muh wall because
you are the homosexual if will you deny ecological overshoot is going to frick over third worlders a lot this century.
Only Europeans are capable of the organisation and discipline for a WW1 style war. Most you'll see in Africa is guerilla activity.
A repeat of the fighting between Eritrea and Ethiopia?
I give it 50% odds.
WW1 style war demands you have sophisticated defenses, access to a large industrial base (doesn't necessarily need to be your own, someone just has to be supplying you), and a large artillery park.
I can't think of a single country on the continent (save maybe the Arab countries) who fit this bill, let alone two adjacent ones.
If you're asking "when is a frick-huge war going to happen in Africa where there's tons of death and large scale alliance between various nation blocs?", the answer is it already happened:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War
It's sometimes referred to as the "African World War" for a reason.
No chance at all. African powers lack the organizational competency and cultural unity required to do what you’re talking about.
At least 6
Congo Wars already happened.
>this century
100%
>this decade
Maybe 30% tops
No chance whatsoever.
- primary dream of about 45% of African population is to migrate to Europe and get a lifetime of free gibs
- will to fight for own country against any enemy not significantly weaker: 0%
- percentage of rich Africans who have foreign passports and luxury apartments in other parts of the world: 66%
The only wars Africa sees are when one group identifies another group as both richer and weaker than themselves, and then it is machete time. There is not one African country whose citizens are willing to die for it because they are its countrymen. There ARE tribes whose members are willing to fight to the death for, but it doesn't make it WW1 warfare.
>will to fight for own country against any enemy not significantly weaker: 0%
A strong enough dictator can just round up all the 60iq peasant subsistence farmers if he wanted
no it'll just remain unstable and underdeveloped
probably some of the developedish bits will get worse, but some of it is too useful to lose (read: south african & kenyan industrial output)
there's a non zero chance the west and china will start proxying over some of these, and may already be happening in the wagner & france induced power vacuum (and in areas where china has been 1b1r investing)
Has there been any indiction of the West, apart from maybe France, really I refer to the US take any grievances with what China does in Africa?
China and Russia's MO in Africa is a world apart and China even uses western security guaranteed by chang hedge funds after their UN super troopers melted
only some strange coincidences
https://bylinetimes.com/2023/05/10/chinas-belt-and-road-power-grab-comes-under-pressure-in-sudan/
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china’s-worldwide-expansion-plan-stops-somaliland-191653
I know belt and road = faustian bargain for poors
and Somaliland doesn't have any backers apart from Taiwan symbolically so they are completely isolated and will make no proxies.
Somalia is too important to not isolate apparently
yeah, one may as well ask where Yemen get their guns from.