You'd just have NATO states firing into Ukraine claiming they're preventing a genocide. And Russia can't fire into NATO because they haven't attacked Russia proper.
The outcome would still be Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and lots of people dying.
>You'd just have NATO states firing into Ukraine
Nah. If Kiev fell in three days you can bet the Germans and French would've forced through another Minsk treaty style deal that would've left Ukraine crippled and let Putin secure his gains. You're forgetting how much everyone was a chicken shit for the first week except for the UK, Poland and the Baltics.
Zelensky not running away and the AFU not performing an ANA style collapse was something most western leaders and Putin didn't see coming.
>If Kiev fell in three days you can bet the Germans and French would've forced through another Minsk treaty style deal that would've left Ukraine crippled and let Putin secure his gains.
Bruh, the plan was to annex Ukraine in its entirety and cleanse the location from the local culture, as per their pre-planned articles automatically posted on the third day of the invasion. There wouldn't be no "crippled Ukraine" left.
The cleansing part would most likely involve:
- mass killings of "problematic people" (current and ex-military, patriots, local inteligencia, etc), for whom mass graves were prepared (they literally created a state standard for this right before the invasion);
- population replacement with a ton of locals getting sent to siberia (projects which the russian MoD officially called "eco settlements" and was planning to develop) and pidors from russia sent into Ukraine to take their place;
Western homosexuals from would look the other way and pretend this didn't happen, similarly how they did in previous times such shit was done by russians.
>What about this fantasy we have that by all accounts was not our real intent after all
Well, they'd have a capital. And half a country with it's army intact, beyond pissed off at you and the other half, a population that has a hobby of putting poison in your vodka
It's be pretty cool to watch the vids of the resistance putting rigged mortar rounds into the seats of the cafes the ruskies would sit in
You'd just have NATO states firing into Ukraine claiming they're preventing a genocide. And Russia can't fire into NATO because they haven't attacked Russia proper.
The outcome would still be Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and lots of people dying.
The Russians have a long history of successfully grinding down European insurgencies. Obviously there would be a lot fewer Russian casualties than in conventional war. There would probably be a lot more Ukrainian civilians in mass graves too.
Thanks. I was just trying to ballpark whether it would look like GWOT 2.0 but for Russia, or arguably worse.
The Russians have a long history of successfully grinding down European insurgencies. Obviously there would be a lot fewer Russian casualties than in conventional war. There would probably be a lot more Ukrainian civilians in mass graves too.
> More than 90,000 Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians, labeled as "enemies of the people", were deported to forced settlements in inhospitable areas of the Soviet Union. Over 70% of the deportees were either women or children under the age of 16.
>Since the general situation in the Soviet Union had improved since the end of the war, this mass deportation did not result in as many casualties as previous deportations, with a reported mortality rate of less than 15 percent.
>Many of the remaining Forest Brothers laid down their weapons when offered an amnesty by the Soviet authorities after Stalin's death in 1953, although isolated engagements continued into the 1960s. The last individual guerrillas are known to have remained in hiding and evaded capture into the 1980s, by which time the Baltic states were pressing for independence through peaceful means.
It would have been unbelievable in terms of bloodshed. Right now every Ukrainian ultranationalist type (and there are a lot of those, even before the invasion) can be part of the armed forces as regulars. But if the government fell, every last one of them would have become various flavors of rebels, militias, bandits, partisans, saboteurs, spies, and in many cases just straight-up terrorists. You'd have guys strapping bombs to themselves in every subway station in Moscow. You'd have guys setting up a PKP in some random window of a commie block just to get the slightest chance at killing Putin & co every time they walk outside. There would be even less air traffic in and out of Russia than there is now, because while today they have to jump through hoops to avoid legal blocks, in that alternate reality they simply would never even try, after a couple of passenger jets got downed by MANPADs.
Basically, they would show Muslims what a REAL insurgency looks like. They would make the Taliban, ISIS, etc look like a fricking joke with how brutal they would get.
Molotovs. Molotovs everywhere.
Also the insurgency has a large supply of ATGMs and MANPADS, with friendly neighbouring countries and a big border to shift more supplies through.
I can expand on the picrel post. My colleague, a 50+ y.o. boomer, a "sales manager" (not really, just a bidder kek) in a small IT contractor. Originally from the eastern part of the country which got occupied in 2014. A person of simple tastes and a history enthusiast. Hates russians with a passion, so went to makeshift TDF on first day of the invasion. Imagine a 50+ y.o. boomer in a track pants, coat, with barely any gear outside an AK and a couple of mags.
Well, they were split into groups of about a dozen such TDF randoms (basically civilians who were wild enough for such shit), with 1-2 actual soldiers guiding every such group. Their main activity were ambushes and sneak attacks. Imagine a group of russians stopping almost like in the middle of the forest, because they had to wait for commands, fuel or something like that. They'd launch a surprise attack on the pidors, waste a bunch of them, then loot everything which made sense or was easy to take with them without taking too much time and scatter. Usually there was no time to take the transport, armor and such, because other pidors were always potentially just 5-10 minutes away, so usually it was just disabled/burned.
This is basically how a ton of those TDF guys actually got gear for themselves: a ton of russian guns, mags, grenades, RPGs, body armor, NVGs and such were looted from dead pidors as a result of such attacks.
They were doing such stuff for like 2-3 weeks around the outskirts of the Kyiv region and partially in the Chernihiv region. Then this guy got booted off TDF because they had issues controlling him kek. Which kinda makes sense, he's a very initiative driven guy, and his hatred of russians probably didn't help him follow orders, especially from some twentysomething soldier.
Please don't be too autistic, my brother. In this specific case "boomer" is used a generic slang name for an old person. A 30 y.o. colleague would call me a boomer, just because I'm a decade older than him. A 22 y.o. colleague would call that 30 y.o. colleague a boomer.
>Be young millennial >Get called boomer by zoomer who is no more than 4 years younger than me
Zoomers are the most moronic generation after millennials and I don't even want to think about gen alpha.
3 months ago
Anonymous
Millennials caused this by calling everyone older than them, be they Gen X or actual boomers, boomers.
3 months ago
Anonymous
>gen alpha
The zoomers' zoomers, eh? Why not just call them zoom-zoomers?
>Then this guy got booted off TDF because they had issues controlling him kek
Like what issues exactly? Did he go off Rambo style and start torturing Ruski PoWs or cutting off their ears and sending them to command in boxes MACV-SOG style or something?
He didn't go into too much details, but I expect at least issues with subordination and "too much initiative" for soldier. Guy got depressed for a month, wanting to find some volunteer battalion to join, we barely managed to convince him to sit tight and relax.
Well, hang on. Did you get conscripted and sent to the front lines or anything?
3 months ago
Anonymous
No, I didn't. I'm a useless piece of shit who almost broke down from stress and doomerism about my parents and relatives, whom lived in an area which got partially occupied. I was _this close_ to try and go across enemy lines to help them, but the company pretty much forcefully shipped me off from Kyiv, because everyone was scared the city would get fully encircled and then fricked up.
>Be Ukie tanker >Be given Leo to replace FUBARed T series >Basically given keys to a Porsche after wrecking some used Lada >Be out strolling with the boys on a weekend drive >See a couple of BTRs minding their own business >Kill everyone and everything in sight >Head back to base to enjoy a steaming hot plate of Vasily's Cajun borscht he learned to make from some bearded guys with sunglasses and lots of tattoos the day before
Life must be very interesting on the Ukie side of the lines. Sure beats the "All Quiet on the Blyat Front" on the Russian side of things.
I can't answer the question until (You) specify: why precisely WOULD Kyiv fall in three days in your scenario? Complete apathy from all 40,000,000 Ukrainian citizens? A Russian Army somehow not hollowed out by decades of corruption and incompetence? Every other nation in the globe simultaneously developing a blind spot and refusing to interfere? The Ayyyyys landed and changed the fabric of reality so that the quisling puppet government was already in place when the Russians ran out of fuel in a 40 km convoy?
I mean, throw me a frickin' bone here, Anon.
I was brainstorming a scenario in which Russia invaded Georgia instead and all signs point to that country collapsing almost instantly. Their only hope would be an insurgency.
Obviously the only recent example of a non-Muslim nation fighting Russians en masse was Ukraine
Considering the disregard Russians have for human life in general, an insurgency wouldn't have gotten far. You'd probably get stiff resistance out of the mountains in the west however, nice and close to NATO supply lines.
wasted trips, the russians tried that in Afghanistan and Chechnya and it still chewed them up, only succeeding in Chechnya because of how tiny it was and installing a warlord puppet they pay huge bribes to.
Insurgency is ineffective against ziggers. We would see the protests suppressed by tanks Kherson-style followed by mass executions and decimations Bucha-style and then the insurgence would be over in Melitopol-style.
this tbh
people have a romanticized view of resistance and think the bad guys lose every time, when in fact it's very easy to suppress a resistance when you don't have to worry about stuff like human rights and optics. it's as easy as shooting them all and burying the bodies somewhere.
>t's very easy to suppress a resistance when you don't have to worry about stuff like human rights and optics
Eh, not really. By being brutal you only make more people want to kick you out. Every successful. In Afghanistan, for every dead Taliban, they'd get two new recruits. You don't beat an insurgency by trying to kill off all its members. >it's as easy as shooting them all and burying the bodies somewhere.
That's actually not an easy task. You can shoot some of them, but you can't get them all in one go. And, as mentioned before, that only makes them grow.
>Lviv "temporary" gets a capital status >The new "temporary" country government gets recognized by NATO >The new "temporary" government requests "humanitarian" support to prevent the crisis >Western Ukraine gets flooded with weapons, glowies and "volunteers" >Western Ukraine proceeds waging the war against Russia
There will be no insurgence, just active parts of the front getting 300 km closer to Poland.
When people say "why does the West fight insurgencies with such pussified rules" one only has to look at the Russian approach. It turns out that when you are unambiguously going to rape the whole country bloody, the people living there will fight you to the death.
Within living memory the Russians tried to completely destroy their country, abolish their language, deport their people to Siberia and replace them with Russians, stole everything that could fit on a train car and the world was generally apathetic to these things as they happened.
It took the USSR, still fresh off WW2 with hundreds of thousands of veteran troops and officers, almost two decades to mostly put down the Ukrainian resistance movement the last time they tried this. This was fighting an element that was totally isolated from any international support, geographically and politically. Even then there were areas that were essentially no-go zones for anything but reinforced convoys all the way into the 80s.
Right now there is an effort to constrain the amount of warcrimes on the part of the Ukrops but if they were backed against the wall we would be seeing brutality that would make 90s Yugoslavia look like a circus. International condemnation means nothing if you are dead and what are the Russians going to do in retaliation, kill you even more?
Russians wouldn't have been able to maintain control over Kyiv over how awful their logistics were/are, ultimately the occupation wouldn't have lasted more than a few days, with russians eventually being forced to a retreat unless they end up annihilated by encroaching ukrainian forces and lack of supplies.
What if clouds was made from sugar?
>But I did eat breakfast.
You'd just have NATO states firing into Ukraine claiming they're preventing a genocide. And Russia can't fire into NATO because they haven't attacked Russia proper.
The outcome would still be Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and lots of people dying.
>You'd just have NATO states firing into Ukraine
Nah. If Kiev fell in three days you can bet the Germans and French would've forced through another Minsk treaty style deal that would've left Ukraine crippled and let Putin secure his gains. You're forgetting how much everyone was a chicken shit for the first week except for the UK, Poland and the Baltics.
Zelensky not running away and the AFU not performing an ANA style collapse was something most western leaders and Putin didn't see coming.
>If Kiev fell in three days you can bet the Germans and French would've forced through another Minsk treaty style deal that would've left Ukraine crippled and let Putin secure his gains.
Bruh, the plan was to annex Ukraine in its entirety and cleanse the location from the local culture, as per their pre-planned articles automatically posted on the third day of the invasion. There wouldn't be no "crippled Ukraine" left.
The cleansing part would most likely involve:
- mass killings of "problematic people" (current and ex-military, patriots, local inteligencia, etc), for whom mass graves were prepared (they literally created a state standard for this right before the invasion);
- population replacement with a ton of locals getting sent to siberia (projects which the russian MoD officially called "eco settlements" and was planning to develop) and pidors from russia sent into Ukraine to take their place;
Western homosexuals from would look the other way and pretend this didn't happen, similarly how they did in previous times such shit was done by russians.
>What about this fantasy we have that by all accounts was not our real intent after all
Well, they'd have a capital. And half a country with it's army intact, beyond pissed off at you and the other half, a population that has a hobby of putting poison in your vodka
It's be pretty cool to watch the vids of the resistance putting rigged mortar rounds into the seats of the cafes the ruskies would sit in
Thanks. I was just trying to ballpark whether it would look like GWOT 2.0 but for Russia, or arguably worse.
>Setting fire to a transporter clearly being towed by friendlies.
Are wamen always this moronic?
>clearly being towed by friendlies
>civilian towing vehicle has 'Z' painted on it too
anon officially worse at IFF than a woman
Blue tractor had a Z on it.
Thank God those women are the ones throwing the molotovs and not you.
a moron and a coward. interesting specimen you are lol
it has a Z on it you moron
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guerrilla_war_in_the_Baltic_states#Decline_of_the_resistance_movements
The Russians have a long history of successfully grinding down European insurgencies. Obviously there would be a lot fewer Russian casualties than in conventional war. There would probably be a lot more Ukrainian civilians in mass graves too.
> More than 90,000 Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians, labeled as "enemies of the people", were deported to forced settlements in inhospitable areas of the Soviet Union. Over 70% of the deportees were either women or children under the age of 16.
>Since the general situation in the Soviet Union had improved since the end of the war, this mass deportation did not result in as many casualties as previous deportations, with a reported mortality rate of less than 15 percent.
>Many of the remaining Forest Brothers laid down their weapons when offered an amnesty by the Soviet authorities after Stalin's death in 1953, although isolated engagements continued into the 1960s. The last individual guerrillas are known to have remained in hiding and evaded capture into the 1980s, by which time the Baltic states were pressing for independence through peaceful means.
classic
And now the baltic states are full of russians
Curious!
It would make Iraq, Afghanistan and Chechnya look like a picnic.
most reddit response
Maybe you should go back there.
hmm kys imo
Replied to the wrong guy. My bad.
Nasty as frick given the proliferation of high performance AT weapons and MANPADS combined with the crazy bastards using them.
It would have been unbelievable in terms of bloodshed. Right now every Ukrainian ultranationalist type (and there are a lot of those, even before the invasion) can be part of the armed forces as regulars. But if the government fell, every last one of them would have become various flavors of rebels, militias, bandits, partisans, saboteurs, spies, and in many cases just straight-up terrorists. You'd have guys strapping bombs to themselves in every subway station in Moscow. You'd have guys setting up a PKP in some random window of a commie block just to get the slightest chance at killing Putin & co every time they walk outside. There would be even less air traffic in and out of Russia than there is now, because while today they have to jump through hoops to avoid legal blocks, in that alternate reality they simply would never even try, after a couple of passenger jets got downed by MANPADs.
Basically, they would show Muslims what a REAL insurgency looks like. They would make the Taliban, ISIS, etc look like a fricking joke with how brutal they would get.
Molotovs. Molotovs everywhere.
Also the insurgency has a large supply of ATGMs and MANPADS, with friendly neighbouring countries and a big border to shift more supplies through.
I can expand on the picrel post. My colleague, a 50+ y.o. boomer, a "sales manager" (not really, just a bidder kek) in a small IT contractor. Originally from the eastern part of the country which got occupied in 2014. A person of simple tastes and a history enthusiast. Hates russians with a passion, so went to makeshift TDF on first day of the invasion. Imagine a 50+ y.o. boomer in a track pants, coat, with barely any gear outside an AK and a couple of mags.
Well, they were split into groups of about a dozen such TDF randoms (basically civilians who were wild enough for such shit), with 1-2 actual soldiers guiding every such group. Their main activity were ambushes and sneak attacks. Imagine a group of russians stopping almost like in the middle of the forest, because they had to wait for commands, fuel or something like that. They'd launch a surprise attack on the pidors, waste a bunch of them, then loot everything which made sense or was easy to take with them without taking too much time and scatter. Usually there was no time to take the transport, armor and such, because other pidors were always potentially just 5-10 minutes away, so usually it was just disabled/burned.
This is basically how a ton of those TDF guys actually got gear for themselves: a ton of russian guns, mags, grenades, RPGs, body armor, NVGs and such were looted from dead pidors as a result of such attacks.
They were doing such stuff for like 2-3 weeks around the outskirts of the Kyiv region and partially in the Chernihiv region. Then this guy got booted off TDF because they had issues controlling him kek. Which kinda makes sense, he's a very initiative driven guy, and his hatred of russians probably didn't help him follow orders, especially from some twentysomething soldier.
>50+ y.o. boomer
The youngest boomers turn 60 this year, anon.
Please don't be too autistic, my brother. In this specific case "boomer" is used a generic slang name for an old person. A 30 y.o. colleague would call me a boomer, just because I'm a decade older than him. A 22 y.o. colleague would call that 30 y.o. colleague a boomer.
Ah. I see. So, by this new slang standard, I would refer to you and your 2 younger colleagues as zoomers. I like it.
>Be young millennial
>Get called boomer by zoomer who is no more than 4 years younger than me
Zoomers are the most moronic generation after millennials and I don't even want to think about gen alpha.
Millennials caused this by calling everyone older than them, be they Gen X or actual boomers, boomers.
>gen alpha
The zoomers' zoomers, eh? Why not just call them zoom-zoomers?
>Then this guy got booted off TDF because they had issues controlling him kek
Like what issues exactly? Did he go off Rambo style and start torturing Ruski PoWs or cutting off their ears and sending them to command in boxes MACV-SOG style or something?
He kept cold-calling his squad while they were having dinner.
>Can we go kill more pidors already?
>Taras please stop calling us during dinner.
He didn't go into too much details, but I expect at least issues with subordination and "too much initiative" for soldier. Guy got depressed for a month, wanting to find some volunteer battalion to join, we barely managed to convince him to sit tight and relax.
Sounded like he had the time of his life wrenched away from him.
How'd you know him? You a Ukie as well?
>How'd you know him?
He's a colleague at work.
>You a Ukie as well?
Yep.
Well, hang on. Did you get conscripted and sent to the front lines or anything?
No, I didn't. I'm a useless piece of shit who almost broke down from stress and doomerism about my parents and relatives, whom lived in an area which got partially occupied. I was _this close_ to try and go across enemy lines to help them, but the company pretty much forcefully shipped me off from Kyiv, because everyone was scared the city would get fully encircled and then fricked up.
>TDF rando has a chance of being a TZD Ukie
Jesus that morale and motivation explains the absolute tenacity of TDF bagging VDV and Spetsnaz early on
Intelligence explains it better. IT guys vs 90 IQ grunts.
>literally arma antistasi but irl
Damn
>Be Ukie tanker
>Be given Leo to replace FUBARed T series
>Basically given keys to a Porsche after wrecking some used Lada
>Be out strolling with the boys on a weekend drive
>See a couple of BTRs minding their own business
>Kill everyone and everything in sight
>Head back to base to enjoy a steaming hot plate of Vasily's Cajun borscht he learned to make from some bearded guys with sunglasses and lots of tattoos the day before
Life must be very interesting on the Ukie side of the lines. Sure beats the "All Quiet on the Blyat Front" on the Russian side of things.
>Cajun borscht
I can’t think of a more mismatched cuisine pairing than that.
>Cajun borscht
That's a terrible idea.
A fricking Penang borscht would make more sense.
A thin cajun soup with beets and no roux?
>Nobody could answer whose thank that was, how it appeared there, and where did it go.
The Spectre of Kyiv still rolls on the open fields.
"What if..", the eternal vatnik question...
I can't answer the question until (You) specify: why precisely WOULD Kyiv fall in three days in your scenario? Complete apathy from all 40,000,000 Ukrainian citizens? A Russian Army somehow not hollowed out by decades of corruption and incompetence? Every other nation in the globe simultaneously developing a blind spot and refusing to interfere? The Ayyyyys landed and changed the fabric of reality so that the quisling puppet government was already in place when the Russians ran out of fuel in a 40 km convoy?
I mean, throw me a frickin' bone here, Anon.
I was brainstorming a scenario in which Russia invaded Georgia instead and all signs point to that country collapsing almost instantly. Their only hope would be an insurgency.
Obviously the only recent example of a non-Muslim nation fighting Russians en masse was Ukraine
>What if Kyiv fell in 3 days?
If Grandma had balls, she would be a Grandpa.
Considering the disregard Russians have for human life in general, an insurgency wouldn't have gotten far. You'd probably get stiff resistance out of the mountains in the west however, nice and close to NATO supply lines.
wasted trips, the russians tried that in Afghanistan and Chechnya and it still chewed them up, only succeeding in Chechnya because of how tiny it was and installing a warlord puppet they pay huge bribes to.
NATO collapsing starting from the balkans and baltics.
Insurgency is ineffective against ziggers. We would see the protests suppressed by tanks Kherson-style followed by mass executions and decimations Bucha-style and then the insurgence would be over in Melitopol-style.
this tbh
people have a romanticized view of resistance and think the bad guys lose every time, when in fact it's very easy to suppress a resistance when you don't have to worry about stuff like human rights and optics. it's as easy as shooting them all and burying the bodies somewhere.
>t's very easy to suppress a resistance when you don't have to worry about stuff like human rights and optics
Eh, not really. By being brutal you only make more people want to kick you out. Every successful. In Afghanistan, for every dead Taliban, they'd get two new recruits. You don't beat an insurgency by trying to kill off all its members.
>it's as easy as shooting them all and burying the bodies somewhere.
That's actually not an easy task. You can shoot some of them, but you can't get them all in one go. And, as mentioned before, that only makes them grow.
>Lviv "temporary" gets a capital status
>The new "temporary" country government gets recognized by NATO
>The new "temporary" government requests "humanitarian" support to prevent the crisis
>Western Ukraine gets flooded with weapons, glowies and "volunteers"
>Western Ukraine proceeds waging the war against Russia
There will be no insurgence, just active parts of the front getting 300 km closer to Poland.
When people say "why does the West fight insurgencies with such pussified rules" one only has to look at the Russian approach. It turns out that when you are unambiguously going to rape the whole country bloody, the people living there will fight you to the death.
Within living memory the Russians tried to completely destroy their country, abolish their language, deport their people to Siberia and replace them with Russians, stole everything that could fit on a train car and the world was generally apathetic to these things as they happened.
It took the USSR, still fresh off WW2 with hundreds of thousands of veteran troops and officers, almost two decades to mostly put down the Ukrainian resistance movement the last time they tried this. This was fighting an element that was totally isolated from any international support, geographically and politically. Even then there were areas that were essentially no-go zones for anything but reinforced convoys all the way into the 80s.
Right now there is an effort to constrain the amount of warcrimes on the part of the Ukrops but if they were backed against the wall we would be seeing brutality that would make 90s Yugoslavia look like a circus. International condemnation means nothing if you are dead and what are the Russians going to do in retaliation, kill you even more?
What if God was one of us?
Not religious, but I'm pretty sure most worthwhile gods would be in the "Muscovy delenda est" camp.
Just a slob like one of us?
"If"?
LOL more like "when" Kiev falls...
Дa, тoвapищ, нaм ocтaлocь пoдoждaть eщe 2 нeдeли.
Russians wouldn't have been able to maintain control over Kyiv over how awful their logistics were/are, ultimately the occupation wouldn't have lasted more than a few days, with russians eventually being forced to a retreat unless they end up annihilated by encroaching ukrainian forces and lack of supplies.