So how is this war actually going? Media coverage has dropped significantly, what I hear about now are Russians taking towns every few days. Few drone videos. Let's have a neutral state of affairs thread.
Ukraine war - how is it actually going?
So how is this war actually going? Media coverage has dropped significantly, what I hear about now are Russians taking towns every few days. Few drone videos. Let's have a neutral state of affairs thread.
HIMARs are being used by ukies now. Every day for the past week we've had 2-3 depos blown up in Russia or occupied Ukraine. Yesterday we had 4. It's going well
>It's going well
>zoom in on russian gains to win
I just like seeing the Russians embarass themselves on the world stage.
>>It's going well
I love how vatnigs went from
>We will be in Lisbon in 3 days!
to
>We aint losing that much against ukies!
And they see absolutely nothing silly about it
The Russians are the undisputed masters of highly mobilized, quick deployment goal post systems.
I like you make up things in your head
I like how dumb vatniks like you will die in civil war that inevitable will happen after your shitty wannabe tzar kick the bucket few months from now max.
And knowing you snowBlack folk, it will get nuclear.
God im so hard thinking about it.
>meanwhile in reality
>select all boxes with russian victory
if you told me we would chase the dogs back to the northern border on day 1 i wouldve said thats borderline hopium
Too bad that almost all of them are in twitter only.
Sorry Ivan that english sentence you just attempted to form makes no sense
you east euros slavs are still here? didn't the reddit and twitter fronts collapse?
03/07/2022-Frontline Overview
Russian forces managed to capture more settlements west of Lysychans'k(Bilohorivka)
Russian forces made slight gains north of Kharkiv(Rubizhne)
Russian forces made slight gains south east of Bakhmut(Klynove)
Kherson- North east have some success
North west continue to push and remove Russians out of their positions, with new heavy artillery coming it will be easier.
Source?
That's an ISW update.
Russians bleeding troops while focusing most of its forces on the east. Lots of back and force in the east over control of small towns but Russia is advancing althought at a glacier's pace. Ukraine is still getting weapons and training people. Ukraine tried an offensive in the south that didn't accomplish much afaik. It's a slugfest rn with things moving really slowly and both sides are taking losses without making decisive gains but you still get some news of russians doing some stupid shit to laugh at every few days.
Russia is penetrating deep inside Ukrainian territory using its massive artillery advantage. They are forcing themselves on a numerically superior enemy, and are coming close to bursting though the lines. Ukraine is trembling in anticipation and can only hold out against strong Russian bulls for so long
>Russia is penetrating deep inside Ukrainian territory using its massive artillery advantage. They are forcing themselves on a numerically superior enemy, and are coming close to bursting though the lines. Ukraine is trembling in anticipation and can only hold out against strong Russian bulls for so long
When do they cum???
Afaik ISW experts has concluded that Ukraine has forced Russia to prematurely culminate.
Same thing that has been happening the entire war. Russians advance slowly, while Ukraine aims to diminish the Russian forces and equipment.
Ukies got pushed out of Lysychiansk, keep probing the Russhits in the North and South, while blowing up multiple VatBlack person ammo depots per day using HIMAR (of which they need to get more)
As a Ukraine supporter I have wavered throughout this conflict, they certainly surprised everyone more than once but I still firmly believe Ukraine will lose this war.
Surprised you didn't get swarmed by ukroshills for admitting that.
it's too obvious
Yeah it's too obvious ukraine is losing.
i'm a huge russian supporter who hopes for the death of all nazi trannies, but even I can see that russia is inevitably going to lose
What are you basing this on? Yes Russia has faced losses. But so have the holols. Russia holds 20% of "Ukraine" and they are advancing. Meanwhile the Ruble is strong and the American economy is entering recession. it seems Putin is outplaying Biden at every turn, as far as I can tell
Stock and flow of equipment and troops, and rate of advance. Ruble resembles a shitcoin; miniscule volume allows manipulation. Russia in recession.
NTA but
>Russia cannot hold the territory they have in the long run let alone pay for the reconstruction of everything they bombed.
>They're already having to cede territory they personally deemed as extremely important.
>They are getting more and more partisans assassinating people or putting hits out on people they vouch for pretty much daily to the point that the Russian-appointed people taking over are in fear for their lives.
>You have ammo depots being blown up daily.
>You have constant news about stuff internally in Russia lighting spontaneously on fire like recruitment centers.
>You have the Ruble only trading internally and even internally it's being propped up by a bunch of very specific things to keep it artificially alive.
>We're already seeing massive issues with Russia being unable to produce materials with how they have brand new Ladas without basic features like airbags.
>We're seeing them having supply issues as evidenced by them having to ask for more weaponry from pariah countries because no one else is dealing with them.
Keep in mind this all before the full brunt of the sanctions has even gone into effect. Even their financial chick who is doing an actual incredible job at trying to keep the country afloat said it's only going to start within either this month or the next.
>We're seeing them rolling out Soviet-era weaponry and tanks which show us the corruption hit them hard and they can't risk throwing out the remainder of their modern gear because it would mean direct defense issues internally.
and on and on. Russia's got nothing but issues. Yeah, Ukraine's bombed to hell but the difference here is they're still getting so many foreign volunteers they genuinely can't train them all showing that manpower is not an issue, NATO and the US in particular are prepared for this to last a long while, and they're making fairly smart tactical choices, most notably with what they're using their artillery on now.
>the Ruble is strong
Look up the trade volume. It's worthless monopoly money.
ruble went from 80 to 70 to 60 to 50
what will happen when ruble goes hits sub 10, nothing suspicious right surely the ruble actually is worth one us dollar
id imagine russian citizens will be quite happy with how much their currency is worth to buy western products
>id imagine russian citizens will be quite happy with how much their currency is worth to buy western products
russian citizens don't make money
It’s an extremely tightly controlled currency. Exchange rates are just pixie dust when you can’t actually buy any rubles. Its like me saying my homemade currency the gaygerino currently trades at $10,000 USD to 1 gaypenny and no I will not sell you any.
This isnt an american proxy war.
Poles and.lrauts have done more for the ukrs than gringos
>Poles and.lrauts have done more for the ukrs than gringos
As far as equipment, no. Unless maybe Poland did if you compare it to their GDP. If you mean acting as an equipment route and taking in refugees than yeah Poland probably has done the most (especially if you could from 2014).
Whoever wants to fight longer will win. War is started by Russia, but they don't get to choose when it's over.
Ukraine's objective is to whittle Russia down without taking unnecessary losses. To that point they are doing well. It's not a game of call of war, just because you sit on a point doesn't mean the fighting is over.
Ukraine will not lose, yet they will not win. The most desired outcome from Western powers, including the United States, is a perpetual war. This is the perfect proxy war.
No one cares about Ukrainians dying, that is just a cold hard fact people are going to have to wake up. They will die by the thousands testing our new weaponry and showing us the results. Prodding Russia with the cost of lives.
Saying the United States cares about Ukraine is like saying we cared about the Taliban fighting the Soviet Union. I mean there were some good Time pieces and the media tried.
The reason why poor people, the ones who fight wars, still tend to care about this conflict is that the biggest psyop in history was extremely successful. If you fell for it, don't feel bad. Everyone did. Now we watch them die.
No it isn't. Securing independent fuel reserves and an ally against Russia is more important than testing a switchblade drone.
There won't be anything left of Ukraine after the war, demographics collapsing harder than Russia. Millions of young women displaced all around Europe. Russia made sure they hit their industry and infrastructure, it will take hundreds of billions to rebuild the country, but is it worth it in the end?
>independent fuel reserves
It will take about a decade to start the exploitation of those gas fields, while Europe is slowly drifting away from fossil fuels.
Vast majority of Ukraine is untouched. Life goes on.
Feel free to post this new weaponry Ukraine is testing for us.
Yes the alphabets will come out on CNN and daytime talk TV and explain about how successful their spooks on the ground are operating and what new tech they have. Pulling apart their integrated systems and telling us the result?
Shit maybe they will put up a youtube video?
Oh I know a reddit post so you can updoot it.
Yes the swtich blade is the only weapon we are testing. Of course, the only that is completely public. That we announced shipments of.
Jesus fricking christ how are people this stupid.
Ah, you're a schizo.
No someone just someone doesn't believe we went to war in the middle east for weapons of mass destruction. I guess I am a tin foil hat for not believing that. I'm fine with that with questioning my governments actions instead of unhinging my jaw and gaggling down the propaganda like a duck.
Have you seen how ducks eat?
Yes anon, the CIA is running around Ukraine testing out new, highly secret weapons in the most media covered war in the world, against old soviet junk, rather than just doing it America or literally anywhere else. Hate to break it to you anon, but le spooks are not that impressive; most just sit in embassies and can't even speak a second language.
Yes. I've seen 4-6 way jamming backpacks and posted about them (you will see a man carrying a backpack with too many antennas). There is massive electronic counter measures going on, electronic warfare being tested. This is a sensor war.
It is an intelligence gathering treasure trove to test Russian force response and reaction.
Do you seriously believe the CIA is not on the ground. We dance around saying we are just feeding them intelligence.
You're saying we are not getting involved off the books? With our history? We are just going to sit at home and observe. Right.
>4-6 way jamming backpacks and posted about them
Yes, we all saw the picture of the tall, lanky man with a backpack.
No, the CIA is not on the ground in the capacity you describe.
>CIA not getting involved in a proxy war with Russia
I just really don't know how to respond to this.
No, the CIA is not on the ground in the capacity you describe.
>Can you prove anything you're saying?
>No, it makes sense there's more behind the scenes okay?!
Just say you don't have any fricking evidence homosexual, don't waste our time.
>Vast majority of Ukraine is untouched. Life goes on.
The poorest part, that's the problem.
That is so incredibly moronic I don't know even where to begin.
Like I said the most successful psyop in history, thank you for proving my point. HEARTS AND MINDS.
So you're saying Europe will be happy NOT getting Ukraine's oil reserves?
>an ally
God I love doing it an ally
aids meme is real??
I agree somewhat. Ukraine will win eventually, but only because the west needs to show the world what boons it has to be allied to us.
But it won't be quick. We will use any opportunity to destroy Russia. If this war lasts three years and at the end Russians live like Norks and pray to Putin like a god as they hunt the steppe for food, we have achieved out mission.
>If this war lasts three years and at the end Russians live like Norks and pray to Putin like a god as they hunt the steppe for food, we have achieved out mission.
Shoigu would love this; in fact, I believe he will be the coming god-emperor of the rusnigerians, having assassinated Putin via poison suppository.
daft
it looks possible it will settle into an endless low intensity war. but this is an outcome only the intelligent KGB type will think is good. it throws a wrench in EU integration plans and helps to support a return to Soviet-era wehrstaat in Russia
the west wants the war to end even if Ukraine has to make some concessions. they are itching to exploit Ukraine as an EU outsourcing center. and they need it as a grain source for the replacement Black folk but everyday the war delays that costs the israelites millions
Depends how you define win. I doubt they'll manage to retake what they've lost however I doubt they'll lose anything else.
Considering the Russians were on the doorstep of Kiev, the Ukrainians have done extremely well at containing them to just the breakaway republics.
People saying Ukraine is going to win and take over all the lost territory are as deluded as the people claiming Russia will take the entirety of Ukraine.
The map you see now is probably not going to change. I honestly believe Putin is going to call it a win and leave it there.
>I doubt they'll manage to retake what they've lost however I doubt they'll lose anything else
Unlikeliest scenario. Borders will be determined by when either side loses militarily.
>I honestly believe Putin is going to call it a win and leave it there.
Then Russia will lose lol.
> I honestly believe Putin is going to call it a win and leave it there.
Who says Russia has any say in when to end this war?
Holy fricking shit, its true. How do they pack that many people into that shithole swampland called bangladesh? must be pure hell on earth.
>Who says Russia has any say in when to end this war?
how do you homosexuals exist?
If a man kicks your front door in, your wife and daughter flee to the neighbors, and then he proceeds to kick your teeth out of your mouth and lock you in your own garage, and then he stays for 100+ days and ransacks your house, do you feel 'in charge'.
>do YOU decide when he leaves?
>why not MAKE him leave?
This is ukraineshit,
>Get my gun
>World police arrives outside
>Home invader declares that the home invasion is now over, the garage belongs to him and that you're no longer allowed to defend your house
>Home invader gets shot
>"How could this happen? I declared the invasion to be over!"
Bro, the "man" in question kicked the front door in, got the shit beat out of him, and now he's barricaded in the garage behind a wall of broken furniture and junk boxes. Every now and then, he'll take a piece of furniture, smash it and use it to make his barricade taller, and every now and then, I throw an M80 over his barricade and make him scream like the little b***h he is and threaten to blow the entire house up because I'm not playing "fair".
I like that even in your analogy, Russia is a home invader. Speaks to the moral fiber of the Russian war machine
>Who says Russia has any say in when to end this war?
>how do you homosexuals exist?
So they can just decide to end it while the other side is still fighting them? But how? Ahh, of course! It's all so simple. Russia can just stop fighting and declare the war over without capitulating.
Trotsky, you're a genius!
But anon, they're not even at war!
>I honestly believe Putin is going to call it a win and leave it there.
Putin can hang a mission accomplished banner but that won't stop the sanctions or stop the holhols from counter attacking with their ever expanding and re-arming wartime army.
Only Washington and Kiev decide when Russia can get off this ride.
>I honestly believe Putin is going to call it a win and leave it there.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-duma-speaker-ukraine-pushing-moscow-expand-its-military-goals-ria-2022-07-05/
I generally agree with you, with their armoured companies mostly wiped out the Russians don't even possess the ability to launch major sweeping offensives anymore, but on the other side of the coin the Ukrainians never really had that capability to being with.
I think the mistake you, me and many other people are making is using rationality to speculate on outcomes, when anyone with even a basic understanding of war and how it's an unpredictable shitfest knows launching this invasion at all was irrational and dumb as shit. Putin's objective was to win the war in a week, now that's dead in the water the entire campaign is winging it while he plays chicken with the West until winter over economic pain and a global famine. To say nothing of the Ukrainians own objectives which have become (justifiably) more bloodthirsty and vengeful even with the setbacks.
Ukraine wants Russian blood, and they're hellbent on getting it now. It's why they won't stop when Russia grabs the Donbas. They'll just get pissed off.
>Ukraine wants Russian blood
It's the Kyiv regime that is run by US Democratic party tho 8 years of pumping up the hate certainly left the mark on general population.
get fricking real
The population was so eager to join the war that the military actually told them to stop and use their heads; that it's impossible to train that many people at once and neither do they have enough equipment to arm them.
Black person, this war is going to have only one outcome. A complete Russian withdrawal at least back to the pre-invasion positions it held on February 23, 2022 as well as handing back any Ukrainian citizens it kidnapped (they'll most likely get to keep all of the stolen property though).
Nothing short of this is going to be acceptable to Ukraine and the United States, and by extension, NATO, who will keep funneling weapons to Ukraine until the Russians are either slaughtered to the last man trying to storm their positions, or call it quits.
If they're lucky, Russia will get to keep the parts of Donbass, Lungansk, and Crimea that it held on February 23, 2022, but they may wind up losing even those in the long run given how badly they've treated the population as expendable meatshields.
Russia lost this war in the first week, it's only a question of how badly they will lose. Will it be abject national disgrace comparable to that of Germany at the end of the Second World War, or a collapse of the current Russian state, or Russia flips over the table, launches a massive nuclear attack on NATO and is destroyed in return?
>Black person, this war is going to have only one outcome. A complete Russian withdrawal at least back to the pre-invasion positions it held on February 23, 2022
I’ll screencap this for future lulz
Russian sphere of influence and they country itself are collapsing. You think russkies have the will to hold on to some rubble in Ukraine once Putin dies and the conflict spreads all over Russia?
Russia will lose. They're a one-trick pony, dependent on arty-spam. When their ammo supplies are destroyed, they'll be helpless without artillery.
I don’t support either side but I thought Ukraine would collapse in the first week of the invasion tbqh.
>I thought Ukraine would collapse in the first week of the invasion tbqh.
That was the way to bet. It's pretty incredible how Russia managed to frick up and get bogged down for going on five months already.
they're getting ready to draft women. if that doesn't show that they're winning then i don't know what does. everyone knows women are useless on the battlefield so this just shows they are dabbing on the vatniks
>inb4 people have a meltdown that this is going too far and totally unfair, while allowing the original conscription to happen
Damn that's big news being revealed by, oh a fricking nobody on twitter who happens to be russian
Literal who twitter screencaps were always good enough for you beforehand but sure, here you go:
>https://twitter.com/i/status/1544386045860626432
>Pidlasa
Thanks for posting the ukrainian equivalent of mtg, that really helps your point
Kek I posted a video of Bratchuk himself and Zelensky is currently engaged in damage control over it atm but if that's how you need to cope don't let me stop you
>guy in minor position in local administration thinks maybe it could happen
Oh sorry, I thought you were claiming the Ukrainian government was planning or starting to do it. Not that this one man thinks it might happen but has literally no control over it.
>NOOOO THEIR SUPPOSED TO REFUGEE THE WOMBYN HERE
775 Ukrainian kills?
cringe
dunno, even if Russia wins, its kinda case of so what, was it even worth it. They get a bunch of destroyed cities and empty villages, and fields full or unexploded arty shells. For the price of 10k vehicles, including most of their modern tanks and IFVs, and maybe 30-50k deaths, excluding donbabwe and luganda. In the end Ukraine is still closer to west, and Russia is still a shithole that got embarassed. Also western europe woke up and will start seriously rearming, and the sanctions while not as destructive as some people say, are still gonna be a fricking mess to deal with.
They can't get spare parts for planes outside of black market for the planes they took over, and good luck trying to eventually buy new planes. Western financing will be non-existent for god knows how long. Their car imports fell by like 90+%, so have fun with Ladas that do not even have ABS brakes.
Sure is worth it, truly now everyone understands what a great Empire Russia is.
Since the withdrawl from the northern oblasts fighting has largely centered in the country's south and east.
-Around Kharkiv City: Ukranians have been pushed back from their furthest extent of their advance, but niether side seems to presently have the troops needed for sustained offensives.
-Izyum Area: Russians have consolidated their positions north of the Sievertsky Donets River but have thus far failed to make appreciable gains in their efforts to drive south towards Slovyansk. Russian backlines are under considerable pressure from Ukrainian artillery and counterattacks west of Izyum.
-Luhansk Oblast: Area of Russia's greatest focus and unsurprisingly greatest success. In a significant tactical and propoganda victory they have reduced the salient and taken control of the entirety of the oblast. Ukrainian forces managed to leave in some order. The extent to which further Russian advance will occur is to be determined.
-Remainder of Donetsk Oblast: largely stalemated and the sides have been trading artillery. In the past few weeks Russian depots deep behind enemy lines here and elsewhere have been targeted with success by Ukraine using a combination of GMLRS and SRBMs.
-Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainians have captured a few villages along the front line in the past couple weeks. There are some reports of partisan activity in the urban center of Melitopol. Russians have thinned their troops out here to reinforce sectors elsewhere.
-Kherson Oblast: Ukranians have been launching a series of counter-attacks for the past 6 or so weeks. They have had some success in liberating villages along the line of control and pressuring Russian defenses. They have reportedly advanced to within artillery range of Kherson City, but as of yet there has been no decisive breakthrough.
-Odessa/Black Sea: Russians abandoned their positions on Snake Island after coming under attack from land based artillery. Ukraine has also contested the area using drones and AShMs.
Minimum forward momentum is back in Russian hands, but it's very slow. Ukraine is continuing to focus on destroying materiel and logistics. Russia continues to refuse to mobilize and Belarus continues to refuse to commit troops. It is speculated but not confirmed that the DNR fifth column militias are mostly depleted, and there's been pushback (to unknown effect) in their use in other parts of the war. Right now the war is arguably in a stalemate.
This.
>how goes war
If RU wants just the donbas they are putting great effort into its capture. We shall see if donetsk games any better.
If they still want to force ukraine be neutral they've got a long road ahead of them.
Russia is winning, slowly and very painfully
I'm not sure this counts as winning, it's making itself worse, and harming someone else in the process.
An advance is an advance
Pretty sure WW1 counted as a win though.
I mean Germany slowly gained territory and still lost the war. Not sure that's the example you really want to use considering Russia is the aggressor in this war of attrition like Germany was in WW1.
All the countries involved took a massive hit, whether they were attacking or defending. Yet there are clear winners. That's my point.
>clear winners
Tsarist Russia no longer existed
France was economically and demographically ruined so bad that it caused them to lose the rematch
Belgium was borked
the only countries to get out of it (relatively) unscathed were those who were physically untouchable (GB + colonies, USA)
They're considered clear winners nonetheless.
Apart from Russia, the Brest Litovsk treaty was a capitulation from their part.
Slow crawl by the Russians. Logistics are still f'd. Luckily they are invading by ground via their own country so the resources they seem to be able to throw at the problem are quite high. If this were a gulf state putting up this kind of resistance invasion would've been over a month ago. Ukrainians leased tech is putting holes in supply lines but they can't suffer the attrition required to hold stuff and still hope to keep fighting so they're doing defensive retreats. Lots of people are dying on both sides still. Russians have a crazy casualty rate, and I suspect they've deployed more troops than the 'official' number by now. We'll see if they push through or shore up defenses on their meager gains and claim it as a victory.
Logistics probably are still fricked but it seems like they are atleast better than they were. The intel drops dont discuss it and I havent seen any smart cars hauling supplies for awhile.
We will resist Russia to the last Ukranian, for the lulz.
>waaah why won't people just give up and roll over we deserve to win!
Russia's special operation to destroy NATO has thus far added two new countries to the block with about 800km of additional border against Russia.
Ukraine will win. They're fighting for human rights, gay rights, trans rights, and black lives. With Democracy on their side no foe shall be able to conquer them.
A good chunk of those young men are probably dead right now lol
THE GENOCIDE OF DONWABE IS REAL
Here's Strelkov's current round-up:
https://t.me/c/1586661964/6691
https://t.me/c/1586661964/6692
>TL;DR
The Russians don't currently have the forces to mount an offensive beyond Lysychansk due to the attrition warfare waged by the Ukrainians, and every day that goes by the Ukrainians are getting more manpower and western equipment, and they're likely gearing up for a summer offensive.
Ukraine is incapable of launching offensives. They have the same manpower issues as Russia. Their only saving grace is the fact that western equipment is trickling in
they're likely gearing up for a summer offensive
>Ukraine is incapable of launching offensives.
Tell that to the russian forces north of Kyiv, Vanya.
you mean the ones that just retreated because it wasn't feasible to hold on to it anymore and went to frick up hohols at izyum while ukrainians were scared shitless to take these villages back for a couple of days then entered empty places?
>because it wasn't feasible to hold on to it anymore
Why was that, sounds like the Vatniks were getting BTFO and had to run away?
i guess mutts fricked off from afghanistan because they were btfo'd by taliban in combat
>giving up after 20 years vs giving up after two months
Even going by your moron logic Vatniks still look pathetic.
>they're likely gearing up for a summer offensive.
Steiner counter attack incoming
Just take a look at the "Kherson offensive" they've been shilling about since April.
>Ukraine isn't disclosing anything because they're preparing something MASSIVE
Still 20km away from the city, still haven't made any progress.
This is what a Ukrainian offensive looks like, when Russians aren't retreating without covering their asses like around Kharkov.
Any ground Ukraine concedes now can be considered lost for good, there's no way they'll retake it.
>Why yes, we ran away like coward dogs before, but we definitely won't this time!
>If we do, it was a feint the whole time!
People are realizing that ukraine is an even bigger shithole than russia and that their military is somehow even more corrupt. There will be no offensives because they're literally incapable of making any.
I've had funny encounters on this board where people would claim Ukraine had a better economic and demographic situation than Russia before the war.
protip: it's even worse, they're basically a copypasta of one another
this.
before the war ukraine was the country with the highest quota of alcohol and drug related deaths within its armed forces on the entire continent. outranking russia to second place...
>before the war ukraine was the country with the highest quota of alcohol and drug related deaths within its armed forces on the entire continent. outranking russia to second place...
They were also the only army on the continent engaged in an actual war you fricking idiot. Russia's army was largely kept out of the fighting and Donbabweans were used as cannon fodder in their place. NATO's combat experience solely consisted of sending a handful of their SF to the Middle East to join Americans in using Afghan civilians as target practice. Serbs, Croats, and Bosnians consider impaling babies with bayonets to be combat experience. None of the others are worth mentioning.
and now they are trying to get away from Russia's sphere and stop being a shithole.
They're eastern slavs, they'll always be corrupt subhumans.
In 2020 they were still as corrupt as Russia, the rule of law was still foreign to them. That's why the EU doesn't want them in.
No, there was a coup. Then elections that excluded people opposed to the coup government.
Those favoring the EU from the start just wanted to abandon their country for jobs in western Europe, as we've seen with Poland.
I really hope you’re paid for this garbage.
have a nice day, tourist.
Go to church, satanist.
>and that their military is somehow even more corrupt
Last I checked, Ukrainian troops were issued with actual body armour and Ukrainian tanks had ERA, not eggboxes.
Russia is slowly winning and Ukrainian forces are being ground down. If rumours today are true, several Ukrainian brigades have basically gone completely AWOL (10th mountain assault, 72nd and 115th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the 118th "terodefense" brigade).
Russia finally seems to have it's head on straightish and is doing okay I guess for the troops they have committed against a technically vastly superior force (Ukraine has far more troops and western weaponry)
This doesn't stop the fact Russia was basically full fricking arab tier moronic for the first couple months of this war.
Got sources for any of those bold claims, chief?
The latest Russian cope is "Well ACUTALLY ENTIRE UKRAINIAN ARMIES HAVE SWTICHED SIDES AND ARE NOW WORKING FOR US!!!"
>This doesn't stop the fact Russia was basically full fricking Arab tier moronic for the first couple months of this war.
I don't believe this to be true and the people that say this are misunderstanding what Russia tactic's and goals where. Obviously they might have made some blunders as almost any army is without experience to some degree and blunders will happen. But people make it seem worse then it was and the propaganda and the lies distorts it and so does people's lack of understanding of war and strategy. I am open to hearing how they fricked up and i would appreciate good insight on this if anyone has, sadly i except it not be good based on previous conversations about this.
>Russian goal was to remove the ukrainian government and place a russian puppet state like they did in belarus.
This was the initial objective, that's why they tried a blitzkrieg in the entire country, so if they succeded the west could not react in any meaningful way, and they would have basically get their hands on a major grain exporter that feeds a lot of third world countries, giving them more geopolitical power
>The biggest blunder was overestimating their logistics
They expected to roll in unopposed like they did in crimea in 2014. When that didn't happen they weren't prepared to support an offensive that big for a long time, see the 40km convoys and all the ambushes they got in while trying. Now they are stuck in a ww1 style of warfare, and are trying with some succes to keep what they can without committing the entire nation to the war effort and bring something home.
I'm just curious how many more tanks Russia even has left to send in.
Last I saw the number was 1500 verified destroyed. I know they've probably got another 1500 minimum, and potentially many more than that, but I've also seen pictures of legitimate acres of rusted, defunct armor laying around so I'm wondering how much of that is even still viable.
They are sending in 62s now.
>Media coverage has dropped significantly
Where do you live? Because in the US we literally get local news talking about it and then world news has entire segments daily.
The best metaphor I can think of for the Russian advance at present: a man pushing himself forward, slowly step by step, while impaling himself ever deeper on a spear in his gut in the process.
- Russia is slowly winning for now.
- It has almost an order of magnitude less manpower, but more 'metal' like artillery and tanks.
- The amount of ukrainian pre-war equipment was vastly, vastly underestimated by every analyst I've seen. Now that they lost a significant portion of it (especially ~1k old soviet arty systems), even ~200 modern western arty pieces are unable to win the initiative back. But maybe HIMARS will change that, it has shown promising results so far.
HIMARS take a day to reload, they haven't got many. Alone they won't do much.
>1 day to reload
no :^)
Ukrainians literally can't stop complaining about muh complicated and lengthy reload process.
anon I don't know what to tell you, I was in a rocket arty unit (not himars but a larger sytem), they are slow to reload but nowhere near that slow lmao
Ukrainians don't have full training on those systems. We've seen them use CAESARs like static artillery units, not moving after firing their shots (which is the main purpose of having a gun on a truck), reloading much slower than regular CEASAR units from other countries.
Your experience is not representative of how ukies use the weapons we gave them.
whatever if you really want to die on a hill that it takes someone 24 hours to reload a HIMARS you do that 🙂
A day doesn't necessarily mean "24h" but at least part of the morning and the afternoon, remember they also have to move them around all the time due to low numbers. They have targets to hit all over the frontline.
Besides, I don't really care what you think, if you have a problem with that statement, ask UA twitter accounts why they claim they can only do one fire mission per day with their HIMARS.
>A day doesn't necessarily mean "24h" but at least part of the morning and the afternoon
It's takes less than 15 minutes to reload a HIMARS, you can literally watch the entire process on YouTube
>ask UA twitter accounts why they claim they can only do one fire mission per day with their HIMARS.
post proofs of twitter accounts
>HIMARS take a day to reload
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA...you can't seriously believe this?
brothers' sister in laws cousin is fighting for Ukraine. He says morale is low, the entire UAF is demoralized after such a crushing defeat. He has lost his 70% of his entire battalion and says it is the same for the whole of Ukraine. His officers are now telling him that surrender will happen within 2 weeks
troony nazi israelitelensky must end this madness and HATO must revoke Baltic states membership before all is lost
Z
Yes Comrade i also have family fighting in Ukraine. They are thinking of switching sides and being a spy. It is over for the Uki's.
Ukraine is “losing”, but at a rate that would take like a year and assuming they get no further assistance from the west. If they get more assistance then the situation reverses. If they get the assistance they’re asking for it becomes a cakewalk, but that’s a big if.
we could give them all the weapons in the world but a year from now the only soldiers their going to have left are children, 70+ year old boomers and any left over cripples from the past 5 months of combat
>Russia is going to inflict 10 million casualties
>by the end of the year
not even in the wildest PvP induced hallucination
he's not wrong - the ukrainigs are being shelled without any real support. the time scale of any realistic material help is far outside the window where russia may push all the way to dniper. the lack of fortifications, and natural barriers will allow russia to maneuver around and encircle at will.
just watch, homosexual
>the time scale of any realistic material help is far outside the window where russia may push all the way to dniper.
that time scale started upon the invasion and the window isn't remotely closing
Even the upper estimate is 100 casualties a day. x365 that’s 36,500, pretty fricking far off ten million. I’ll even give you that bullshit claim of a thousand and you’re still off by an order of magnitude.
come on now
do you really believe those numbers im betting its 500-1000 daily in actuality
even if they did push to the dnieper (and that's reaching krokodil delusion levels) what then? Ukraine capitulates because it loses to many VPs?
if the russians manage to push all the way to the dnipro river ukraine can kiss that half of the country goodbye forever
they will never have the amphibious capabilities to push back across no matter how man tug boats, canoes and rafts they bring would save them
Russian army isn't large enough or competent enough to permanently occupy and organize a counter insurgency in that large an area
Ah, my sweet summer burger. You have no idea that some countries can do these things better than you? Surprise surprise, it is perfectly doable, just dont be an arrogant shithead like the most of your western types are.
What things? The Russians are getting routed by their moronic little cousin.
>their moronic little cousin.
to be fair, the soviet space program might as well have been called the Ukrainian space program, because that's where all the brains of the USSR came from.
I'm sure the same strategy you use with the chechens (paying them tribute) will work out great, good luck
they dont need to counter an insurgency if no civilian population was left alive or was deported to siberia
literally what the SS tried to do
how did that work out for them?
pretty well actually
when they did it
in actuality
there were only 2 units that did shit like that
the dirlewanger brigade and the free russian RONA brigade
that destroyed entire villages, towns and cities and massacred entire populations
>pretty well actually
>when they did it
>casualty rate: 600%, most famous exploit include losing to israelites with molotov wienertails in Warsaw so badly that the regular army had to be called in to deal with it.
all the waffen ss brigades and divisions needed to be reinforced
the dirlewanger and rona brigades just burned, looted and murdered their way through warsaw
using moron zerg rushes screaming urah as they charged in suffering heavy losses because their usual combatants were unarmed women and children
but they were also responsible for liquidating over 800 villages and murdering 50-150,000 people before and after warsaw
>but they were also responsible for liquidating over 800 villages and murdering 50-150,000 people
No, they were completely useless and were fricking pathetic soldiers.
dirlwanger was a ss police units they dont even come close to frontline ss unirs
Nazi Germany and contemporary Russia aren't even comparable. Russia can't take territory in four months that the Germans managed to seize in a matter of days in 1941/42.
my bad anon, I didn't mean to claim the Russians are anywhere near as competent
Are you fricking moronic? 50 thousand Russkies can't ''deport or kill'' over 20 million people.
>If
"If"
kek
Classic Laconian wit
Non-shill/ Non-cope answer: Both sides are taking heavy losses and both sides are running out of supplies.
Whoever blinks first due to supply shortages loses.
Short term:
No one. Both sides don't have the material to advance. People are obsessing over small villages 30km away from the former 2015 frontlines. No side is able to advance.
Long term:
Ukraine. Unless you're deluded and think you will get a girlfriend if you shill for Putin enough this is very clear. Russia's economy is facing extreme difficulties while the west can funnel untold numbers of modern equipment into Ukraine. Just like any way since Napoleon, this is a war of the economies and one side has the GDP of Holland and is about to transform to some form of command economy. And the other side is 2/3 of the world's economy that produces every high tech good that the other side can't live without.
There is really no scenario where Russia can come out on top. This war was over once the west decided to help.
The only thing that matters is the economic power of both nations and everything else is just varying amounts of cope. This includes the Ukrainian side as well, which often thinks Russia will collapse in 2 weeks. It will take years, but eventually it will end like all the other great enemies of the west. North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Eritrea (all Russian allies)
idk with growing discontent at least in america i could see republicans winning the midterms and pulling the rug out from under the ukrainians
Even Republicans don't support Russia. That's a Democrat fever dream.
Of course they dont. Thing that the isolationists, libertarians and vatnik snakes latch on to is the dire economy machine with high debt, high inflation, decreasing demand and stagnating supply (jobs). In that frame it becomes an obvious question of why keep funneling money to save the world? Particularly when libertarians like Rand Paul made the reasonable request of establishing basic paperwork on the ukranian lend lease finances (you know, to audit the money is going where it is supposed to) and the response was a massive seething wall from all the other senators. Both sides of the isle. Funny thing was also that as soon as the bill was passed certain faces from said seething congressmen immediately started talking about how ukraine is going to lose in the long run because rasha stronk bla bla bla
TL/DR: 10% for the big guy is not a responsible action in a recession.
Also the republican party is straight in the middle of a transformation. Neocons are a dying breed and now the maga types are taking over the driving seat. Democrats have yet to make that transition as they lack the ass whooping required for it and are split with a senior neolib and junior communist-socialist-woketard partnership.
Both of these major shifts represent a more isolationist minded burgerland
god they made marichka look like some troony ozzy osbourne looking mother fricker in this one
>you know, to audit the money is going where it is supposed to
Nice try shill. Rand Paul wanted any purchases vetted by the same underworked audit department that was so effective in auditing the Afghan war so he could slow walk aid. Literally frick off.
US isn't the whole world. Yes, US dropping out would be half of support to Ukraine being gone butt what remains is still enough to drag it for so long Russia just fricking falls over and dies.
Consider that even China is sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine now - and sure, humanitarian aid isn't military equipment but it will help Ukrainians to not starve to death during the winter.
Russia got cut and fell into the ocean and now all the sharks are smelling blood, because there's many people who will benefit from Russia getting torn to pieces and very few who will benefit from it staying afloat.
>Long term:
>Ukraine
Ukraine will literally never fricking recover from this war. How much of its population is displaced? How much of its industry is destroyed? How many young men have died so far? How is it going to repay its war debts? Is Ukraine suddenly going to not become a shithole after the war and actually improve its economy and standards of living? They didn't do that in 20 years of peace time but now they're gonna figure out how in the midst of the rubble and unexploded ordinance?
>And the other side is 2/3 of the world's economy that produces every high tech good that the other side can't live without.
Still going on about muh iphones? Itoddlers really think people can't live without a shitty smart phone? Russsians can still buy almost any product, just go ask one. The west is sacrificing its own economies and stability in the process, Russia is far more capable of weathering the misery.
>The only thing that matters is the economic power of both nations and everything else is just varying amounts of cope.
Which is naturally why you don't actually talk about the economies of any nation. Natural gas and oil will remain relevant for the future. All alternative energy sources are really just supplemental, most countries plan to continue usage of natural gas in some form. This alone gives Russia (and every other gas producing nation) huge relevance and bargaining power in the future. The US knows this which is specifically why it was so pissy about Nordstream 2 and other cooperative measures. It's also why its tried to polarize this war so hard. However the US is run by confused boomers who also want to slash oil exports so more than likely Russia will end up okay.
>How much of its industry is destroyed?
So far it only looks like the steel manufacturing side of things in the long run because of the bombing. Farming seems to be normal, the wheat situation is just because of occupation right now so unless they literally salt the earth when leaving I don't think that's an issue to deal with. Besides that it seems like most of the important stuff was in Kiev and Odessa.
>How is it going to repay its war debts?
It's most likely going to be a generational plan paired with leasing out reconstruction efforts to the countries that supported them. The countries already have their expectations about what's going to be repaid so either Ukraine is getting a heavy discount or it will be written off at some point.
>They didn't do that in 20 years of peace time but now they're gonna figure out how in the midst of the rubble and unexploded ordinance?
The difference here is now everyone has eyes squarely on them and Zelensky is being looked at to lead everyone through and out of this mess. Insensitive as it is, this entire mess can lead to massive changes in how things are going just because it's uprooted a lot of people, lives, and livelihoods across the country. But most importantly because they're going to be part of the EU after all is said and done and there's expectations to be had.
>Ukraine will literally never fricking recover from this war.
A lot is destroyed. Russia lost half a million of it's most educated young people fleeing the country and both countries will suffer from the consequences for decades. One will have enormous amounts of western aid and one will have sanctions against it.
>Is Ukraine suddenly going to not become a shithole after the war
That's not the question. It's about who wins the war. Both sides lose due to war, but one side can win it.
>Still going on about muh iphones?
Anon. When I think about "high tech good that the other side can't live without" I think of Computer chips, software, financial markets. I think of these, because I have a company and wouldn't be able to live without the Japanese, German, American, Taiwanese and many other industries.
You think of iPhones because you are unemployed and have no connection to German machines or Japanese electronics. Your only exposure to trade and foreign products is your phone.
>Natural gas and oil will remain relevant for the future.
And good lock extracting that and selling it while having your economy embargoed and the rest of the economy wasting away.
Having your entire economy centered around 0.01% of the population earning money from oil and gas while the rest is doing subsistence farming is not an economy. It's a mob. And the ones getting the money will swiftly transfer it outside the country.
As seen in Iran, Venezuela and North Korea.
>All alternative energy sources are really just supplemental, most countries plan to continue usage of natural gas in some form.
True. This does not translate to being able to wage war though. You can't build semiconductors out of oil and gas and your economy is ruined.
Russia is already done. It's economy is done and is hasn't been able to produce or substitute military equipment and the same goes for it's new lack of industrials.
They will be unable to continue the war in due time.
And expecting your next reply to be
>Well, they can just replace all products from China!
You can look at your own post:
>How much of its population is displaced? How much of its industry is destroyed? How many young men have died so far? How is it going to repay its war debts? Is Russia suddenly going to not become a shithole after the war and actually improve its economy and standards of living? They didn't do that in 30 years of peace time but now they're gonna figure out how in the midst of economic sanctions and being cut off from GSCs
I only needed to change a sentence and it's all true for Russia.
"Just replace your entire industry, bro" is as helpful as a "Just learn 2 code" is for a child in Kinshasa. And about as realistic.
If you worked in some sort of producing job you would know that, of course.
>Ukraine will never recover from this war
Dude we'll Marshall Plan Ukraine into actual civilization.
Sure. But it will be hard to attract foreign investments as long as Russia is a dictatorship next door and building roads and hospitals up again will take a lot of time.
Ukraine got devastated by this war.
Still better than Russia though. They just killed their own future for decades to come.
It will just be Poland 2.0 + resource extraction + NATO MIC
Also, a developing IT industry. Russia had a developing IT industry too in the 00s, but it vanished for some reason. Ukraine's IT industry is what could happen to Russia's if the siloviki didn't go full moron.
It will take time to repair the infrastructure, but I think Russia being next door will be a boost to investment, not a drawback. The other countries in Eastern and Central Europe will want to get Ukraine back on its feet so it can serve as a shield against the Russians if they get uppity again.
>but now they're gonna figure out how in the midst of the rubble and unexploded ordinance
Spite is a helluva unifier. Getting wealthy while russians wallow in north korea level of poverty is the best revenge.
Also western aid helps and getting yourself rid of ruskie puppet.
Ukraine has it's own gas fields located well outside of the Russian zone of control, and they can always slant drill the Donbass region and steal their oil back.
>Ukraine will literally never fricking recover from this war.
>you after wwii: Germany will literally never fricking recover from this war
>Eritrea
What happened there, anyways? Why are they sucking Russian dick?
I think Russia may end up winning in the end, purely because they'll just shell things from orbit which the Ukies can do little about it outside of wasting their limited airforce to take arty positions out. In saying that though, regardless of how this war ends, be it from years of protracted combat with millions of casualties, or Zelensky sucking Putin's dick on national TV tommorrow, Putin and Russia have humiliated themselves political, socially and militarily. No one really liked Russia anyway, but actively choosing to invade a European (and relatively white, for that matter) nation was a grave mistake. Europe is slowly learning to wean itself off Russian gas and oil, even if not everyone is tagging along. China can bully Russia more. The level of corruption, already known to exist but now more-or-less official, has been revealed to everyone.
Russia has fricked itself into a Pariah position where even it's former allies to 'friends' are either having second thoughts, or outright exploiting their weakness.
tldr
Russia lose strategically no matter what happens
wow
>"Le Ukraine is winning"
Because, as it goes, so goes the "liberal world order"
>"gas prices will go up, untill kiev wins"
of course, soon, the reality that Ukraine is a flattened waste-land that looks like "the future" scene out of The Terminator™
Ukraine was defeated in the first 48hrs, and hasnt flown a single flight sortie since.
Ukraine has no airforce, and no means to get one off the ground if it did.
Hopefully Zelensky will have to suck Putins wiener on live TV for the American Prime-time audience, after the Jan6th preceeding of the night
what is with you people and sucking wiener
the only way vatniks and western vatnik sympathizers understand the world is sucking dicks, trannies, sissy porn and BBC cucking. Honest to god this is all true, the consumption of all these kinds of porn is generally highest in conservative areas of the US.
>no but tell me how it's REALLY going
>no but tell me in a way that sounds like the Russians are winning
Swap RU for UA and you got your /k/ in a nutshell
Well, that's the reality of it. You're the only fricktard desperately cheering for Russia, because nobody pays attention to you.
More of the same.
>Russia marching to defeat as it continues to expend its few remaining resources on a pointless war of aggression that even if it ended in Ukrainian capitulation tomorrow would bear nothing but rotten fruit
>Ukraine struggling against enormous odds, but demonstrating itself to be the vastly more capable combatant
>NATO basically lining up an army capable of conducting Barbarossa 2.0 right on Russia's borders, but being unwilling escalate further unless provoked, so basically posturing
>the American public demonstrating itself to be nothing but a bunch of useless fricking idiots by bickering about homosexuals, gun control, and abortion instead
>Germany demonstrating itself to be a nation of gutless cowards by trying to get Ukraine to capitulate
>China shitting the bed realizing that Russia's military (on which their military is largely model) is complete trash and that they're going to have to completely overhaul their military if they ever hope to stand a chance against NATO
>Russia's allies either openly abandoning it or planning to stab it in the back at the first available opportunity
>likelihood that this all ends in an apocalyptic nuclear exchange increases by multiple percentage points daily
>the American public demonstrating itself to be nothing but a bunch of useless fricking idiots by bickering about homosexuals, gun control, and abortion instead
im sorry that i dont give a shit about some shithole country i've never been to or will visit
oh wait im not sorry
>Opens thread
>Reads thread
>Replies to thread
>im sorry that i dont give a shit about some shithole country i've never been to or will visit
What ever you say anon...
>>the American public demonstrating itself to be nothing but a bunch of useless fricking idiots by bickering about homosexuals, gun control, and abortion instead
We already passed Lend Lease, we don't give a frick anymore. Unlike zee GERMans we know the MIC is on autopilot right now.
Lots of assumptions in this vatBlack person cope. I wonder how you people manage to tie your own shoelaces.
It is a war with many unknowns. So many unpredicted events can happen next. For example what if Belarus enters the ring from the north-west? They are amassing their troops on the border already. What if china delivers new weapon systems and ammo to russia? What if european Ukraine support colapses because of the energy crisis in winter? What if the americans elect Trump for their next president? Noone can say how the war will end.
You know when you are fricking some girls and at first they kickback like a mule but eventually succumb to the pleasure of your dick completely?
Ukraine is the girl.
Anon that sounds like rape
Some girls when they frick the first time push back more than others. You would know if you weren’t an incel.
If they literally kick you, it's rape.
If it's the old "Oh, don't do that!" spiel, where they first don't even want you to touch their breasts, but then let you do doggy with their hands chained to the bed 30 minutes later... that's normal.
You know when you are fricking some girls and at first they kickback like a mule and then they land a solid hit right in your fricking balls, and you scream out like a little old lady who can't afford to get any sugar for her tea and shit your pants, and all your friends and associates are watching and laughing their ass off, so you run away, sulk for a while, and then break the windows on her car and scratch up the paint like a ghetto hoodrat and say that's what you meant to do in the first place?
Ukraine is the girl.
Okay, so why are you wearing pants while fricking a girl? this story doesn't add up.
This gif is so relatable, this used to happen a lot when I was a child.
Russia’s primary, driving motivating concern in the war is securing the major gas deposits in eastern Ukraine. They will continue to grind away towards that goal until the very last possible moment. The reason is that gas sales to Europe and in particular Germany is a major part of Putin’s oligarchs’ extreme wealth and the soft power which controls the government system. No matter what Putin can’t let those gas fields be developed by the West as that could lead to Russian gas being completely cut out. As all the Soviet-era export facilities were inherited by Ukraine that was a serious possibility and an existential threat to Putin’s power structure and his fabulous wealth. Everything Putin has done since those huge gas deposits were discovered 10 years ago has been to secure the gas market with Germany and Europe.
Putin doesn’t care about casualties or sanctions or reputation. As long as the important demographics of Western Russia are kept out of the war he can continue to throw minorities into the fight forever and not worry about serious political backlash. Sanctions harm the minor oligarchs but they also don’t matter; only Putin’s circle of major oligarchs and friends matter. All they care about are their palaces and mega yachts. As long as gas sales can pay the bribes which makes the government tick than Putin will remain power no matter how poorly the military performs. For that reason the war MUST be waged no matter how costly or I’ll-advised it seems from the outside. Securing the gas sales is everything to Putin and the power structure.
Russia will probably take all of donetsk with in the next 2-3 months and declare the operation a victory and start negotiating for a ceasefire or some shit, but im not sure what will be the west's attitude this far into the war, they can either press forward into next spring or, agree to a ceasefire and start reorganizing and rearming the army
At ghe rate they are going both sides will run out of power soon. Russians will force a ceasefire and de facto own land not too dofferent than currrent gains. unless zelensky is so austic he paraguays the war
>ukies are losing bad
>ruskies are making gain but slowly
>lots of russian "activities" are happening in europe some say even in usa, but no ones talking about it.
>business leaders and rich people are some what happy cos they are able to charge lot more money due to the war but don't want all out war so it's sort of being hushed hushed down every time there's talk of a big all out war
>weapon companies and bankers are happy as they are making a lot of money
Chinese are rubbing there hands saying good good.
As a Ukraine supporter we can't let him get the nuclear codes.
Why do Russian believe the west is running out of food? I've seen this a lot, like article about how Britain is "starving"
Newest batch of copium. Things have dragged out for so long now they have to pretend they're starving us out and it's all totally going according to plan. HATO will surrender soon. Give it two more weeks.
They're Russian diaspora who only watch RT
Oh man, they are really in for a shock when Ukraine wins.
How have you guys still not learned to identify cum/chug/gets way of posting?? Stop replying to their concern trolling
Simple reality Vatniks is that your artillery spam doesn't work without AMMO, which the Ukrainians will take from you by blasting your supplies and logistical lines to oblivion.
Then you won't be able to take any more cities unless you're willing to lose a ton of Russians in close-quarter meatgrinder battle, eventually making your entire invasion combat-ineffective.
Ukraine will win this war, and there is nothing you can do to change that. No ammo, no artillery, no more invasion.
Ukraine at the very least will lose all of Donbas. However they will make enough gains in Kherson Oblast to make Z ape out and send Wagner and Spetsnaz to take counter the counter. Russia will remain in denial at the human and equipment loss this gay conflict have cost them. HIMARS are fricking based. Pretty much everything is else gay and this shit will be another 2 weeks in perpetuity.
Ukraine will lose the Donbas but I do not think the Russians can HOLD it forever. The Ukrainians are hellbent on retaking their land, while Russians are eyeing the "EXIT" signs.
Keep in mind actual occupations are incredibly manpower-consuming.
Basically a WW1 battle. Brutal schloging, phyrric victories for Russia over months.
War isn't remotely worth the tens of thousands of lives/thousands of vehicles/trillions of dollars they're losing in this meat grinder
not bad for a country that had next to no army eight years ago, and had neither the equipment, training nor organisation to offer any resistance when russia invaded crimea. also not bad considering the west keeps pussyfooting on various arms deals, e.g., "you mustn't hit targets inside russia, so we aren't sending you the long-range versions"
Well it's already month 4 of 1 week (or 3 days, whatever) of this special needs operation.
Everything will be slow and grinding until it isn't, we are just seeing how it goes.
soviet
Is Russia using nukes yet? I thought they said they would if missiles started falling in Russian territory.
Only for late night /k/
Morale is low after the recent losses and we fell back to regroup. People are still fighting but something needs to happen to get that kick back in the ass.
Media blackout due to something in the south, I think an offensive but I dunno anyone down there so can't confirm.
Morale may be low, but these people still fight all the same. Really weird people in that way.
▶Latest
>Two HIMARS MLRSs destroyed in Malotaranovka
>Russian government orders the israeli Agency to cease all operations - http://archive.today/isoyM ; Anonymous denial - https://archive.today/kLwwU
>LPR forces advancing to Seversk
>Kherson region forms new government
>Finland, Sweden complete NATO accession talks, accession protocols to be signed July 5
>AFU shelling residential areas of Belgorod and Kursk
>Ukraine is obliged to pay $1.4 billion of public external debt by September 1 - http://archive.today/S0B0f
>The entirety of Lugansk People's Republic has been liberated
>Russian forces have liberated Lisichansk
>Germany seizes 3 Russian LNG tankers
>US hypersonic missile test fails after catastrophic misfire - http://archive.today/Cga4V
>Russia withdraws units stationed on Snake Island
>Syria formally recognizes the independence of DPR and LPR
>Russian forces have taken the Lisichansk oil refinery
>Russian forces storming Lisichansk, reportedly routing defenders
>Belarus to receive ballistic and air-launched nuclear weapons in the coming months
>G7 leaders agree to ban Russian gold exports
Nice /chug/ pasta, moron-kun
>>Two HIMARS MLRSs destroyed in Malotaranovka
pic related
>oryx
lol
>D-doesn't count!
>Pic related
>it's a twitter screencap of a turd coping
bruh...
>Let's have a neutral state of affairs thread
not a pro-russian propaganda thread. you already failed the assignment
Ukraine is getting newer and better gear, and their army is growing.
The Russkies are already at the point of having to throw in T-62s, and their cannonfodder has been torn up so hard that Wagner are now allowed to offer amnesty and cash bonuses to russian prisoners in return for signing up to be the new "shocktroops".
Also the Russkies evacuated Snake Island for good after getting shelled some more. ANd HIMARS and other western artillery systems have arrived in a big way, with like 20+ russian ammo dumps and command posts having been wiped out over the last ~2 weeks.
Hey /k/ Jannies put flags on so we can see who is shilling for who. Do it you pussies.
You can see the exact moment in this thread where the cum raid began. Such a fascinating group of creatures, innit?
if people just ignored them it wouldnt be a problem. but every low effort post gets 10 replies from moronic slug brained 50 year olds
BTW, anyone know if this
originally posted in
is a Russian or a Ukrainian pilot?
I'm guessing Ukrainian because the flight suit doesn't look like either the blue or rescue-orange flight suits that I've seen Russians wear as standard uniforms, but I don't know if the Russians are so lax as to allow pilots to wear whatever they want at this point.
>Russian side
They have made some gains now that they realized that the only way to bring something home is to focus on one front instead of fighting on multiple ones without proper logistics. Now if they keep the initiative they will secure donbass and luhansk by the end of the summer, dig in and wait until winter for peace talks
>Ukies side
They too learned a lesson from mariupol, they know that they lack the aerial superiority to turn around an encirclement, so they are losing ground and retreating avoiding major battles. They are either doing this to make the russian overextend and force them to retreat like they did at kiev and kharkiv, or they really lack the logistical capabilieties to organize a big offensive and holding ground everywhere at the same time. In either case if they fail to launch an effective offensive before the winter comes, they won't be able to get back donbass and luhansk
>With everything took in consideration, this war was a massive blunder for the russians, nato now has a reason to exist once again, europe is going towards the usa again while russia is isolated with only china, which is both an ally and major competition, and india, a developing country that will stay with the side that has more to offer. They are losing lots of equipment and manpower to have minimal gains compared to what was the initial objective, and will have to deal with economical damage for years without having anything of value in return
In regards to Ukraine's economic recovery after the war that depends on their ability to deal with corruption and move forward the rule of law. If they can show good progress on those fronts you can expect the West will be good partners in financing reconstruction. But, this is likely not possible to Slavs and Eastern peoples in general although there are exceptions.
Westerners don't understand how anyone could NOT want the rule of law, transparency, destruction of organized crime, etc.
Basically what's happening now is that Russia shifted from infantry/armor pushes to their age old favourite tactic of just shelling the shit out of everything. This is their most effective way of fighting, since it typically minimises dealing with Ukraine infantry, who's gear overmatches that of Russian infantry. It's resulting in any gains Russia makes to be just acres of wasteland, though. Ukraine has been steadily getting better gear from the west to counter Russian artillery, such as the HIMARS, but also regular artillery.
Furthermore, Russia continues to conduct long range strikes on grain silos and put mines in farmlands. They're obviously trying to exacerbate the looming food crisis.
im a dumb tourist but can someone explain to me how on earth russia is gonna lose with like 3000x the manpower and equipment?
i legit know next to nothing about military etc
>3000x the manpower and equipment
It's a lot more nuanced than that. Anyway, the short answer is incompetence and corruption.
weirder things have happened in history. as mentioned above incompetence and corruption does a number. you could have the finest equipment in the world (the russians dont) but if you cant use it properly they it wont do much good
>how on earth russia is gonna lose with like 3000x the manpower and equipment?
Ukraine is targeting those clusters of equipment and ever since they got the HIMARS they've been blowing up ammo depot after ammo depot. Russian soldiers also have shit OPSEC and many internally are lighting random factories and recruitment centers on fire to protest their country and get out of the war.
Russian soldiers are defecting and outright leaking information of where bases are just to get out of the war.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russians-fear-commanders-are-selling-their-own-troops-locations-for-cash
Russia's "good" equipment is more or less spent. They have to keep the rest of the "good stuff" for their own personal country defense so we're seeing tanks that literally fought in WW2 being rolled out because they don't have any modern equipment left not to mention Russia is having to buy weaponry from Iran and beg places like North Korea for more ammunition and weaponry constantly. They wouldn't be using bombs that miss a majority of their targets and they need to drop multiples of if they were actually using proper, modern weaponry which the NATO weaponry the Ukrainians have shows. A bunch of soldiers aren't even being sent out with proper equipment like dotted sights or scope. We've seen people in Donetsk and Luhansk being sent out literally just wearing regular clothes and maybe some fishing-tier equipment and they're having to crowdfund for medical treatments that's how in the shitter they are.
Ukraine also has the assistance of NATO, and more specifically the US, when it comes to location-based information via satellites. I saw a webm in one of these threads yesterday where they figured where a Russian HQ was just from a couple guys moving in and out of a house via satellite that a drone then investigated and they ended up blasting.
Ukraine's still got a long road ahead but Russia is burning through equipment, recruits, and is barely taking any land.
lol you fricking idiot AHAHAHAHAHAH
AHAHAHAHAHAH back at you, champ. HIMAR strikes are a daily event now. Russian offenses are going to cave in from the inside like a Moscow apartment building after Putin's FSB friends got done planting "Chechen" bombs inside it.
>since they got the HIMARS they've been blowing up ammo depot after ammo depot.
They took out 2 badly hidden weapon depots a couple of kilometers behind the front line. Wow
>In the area of the settlement of MALOTARANOVKA, Donetsk People's Republic, high-precision air-launched missiles destroyed two launchers of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system manufactured by the United States and two ammunition depots for them.
supposed video https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/38140
https://t.me/rusvesnasu/20531
>Russian soldiers are defecting and outright leaking information of where bases are just to get out of the war.
>https://www.thedailybeast.com/russians-fear-commanders-are-selling-their-own-troops-locations-for-cash
>according to Ukrainian authorities.
>An audio recording of what the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate says is an intercepted phone call
Ukraine has been very very honest in their coverage of this war right? This is perfectly legitimate stuff
>Russia's "good" equipment is more or less spent. They have to keep the rest of the "good stuff"
Nonsense. The Russians are relying on their artillery and they are taking minimal losses by avoiding direct man to man combat and they are just shelling them to fricking pieces. They have more shells to keep this up for years. The Ukrainians are running out of supplies on their front lines, they are abandoning their positions, they are not getting supplies delivered. They are also running out of men and have decided to draft women. Its fricking over.
>modern weaponry which the NATO weaponry the Ukrainians have shows.
Yeah the Howitzers turned out to be complete joke https://www.stalkerzone.org/true-detective-how-the-russian-army-hacked-secret-us-howitzers-in-ukraine/
>They took out 2 badly hidden weapon depots a couple of kilometers behind the front line. Wow
You realize we have dozens of confirmed hits in many different regions now, right? See
>supposed video
Anon...
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1544623363041251334
>Ukraine has been very very honest in their coverage of this war right?
Considering they're constantly showing us recruits who defected it's weird you want to count this out among all things.
>Nonsense.
We are LITERALLY seeing tanks that are from WW2 being put on the battlefield. We are seeing soldiers who aren't even equipped for actual battle being sent out to fight. We are seeing bombing runs by planes from Russia to Snake Island just a day or two ago that missed 2/4 of their shots on video and they had to fly extremely close to the ground to do even that. We saw with the mall bombing that Russia doesn't even have accurate shells anymore and are having to rely on missiles that hit general areas since they missed the factory right next to it.
>The Ukrainians are running out of supplies on their front lines, they are abandoning their positions, they are not getting supplies delivered.
Anon, they are getting supplied by every NATO country out there. Russia hits some supply lines but it doesn't stop them from receiving shit at all otherwise by your logic HIMARS wouldn't even exist on their land and the Lithuanian Bayraktar wouldn't be sent over. When Zelensky says "We are running out of supplies" he's talking about things like artillery missiles which they were up until recently.
>Yeah the Howitzers turned out to be complete joke
Except I wasn't talking about Howitzers. I was talking about basic things like modernized guns, modern ammunition, modern artillery, modern missiles, drones, all that good stuff.
How significant are those hits on russian depots and other targets? Are they more then an annoyance they just quickly work around? Does it even halt their taking of new land? How many hits like that are Russia doing in return? About the HIMARS we won't be able to tell who is lying until proper footage is shown another he/she say. Why would it be important for Russia to lie about this one?
>Considering they're constantly showing us recruits who defected it's weird you want to count this out among all things.
I thought you where making general statements about the war and not talking about specifics. I do not doubt that this have happened and it continues to happen. What i do doubt is the scale of it and the significance of it. I do not think it happens on a scale that makes it detriment or big enough of a issue that Russia is losing. But I do think this happening on a significant scale on the Uranian side and its a sign of the bad conditions that the Ukrainian soldiers have on the front line. They would rather surrender and run away then to die as cannon fodder. The number of Ukrainians that are defecting compared to Russians are huge.
>We are LITERALLY seeing tanks that are from WW2 being put on the battlefield.
I think you missed the point. Yes a lot of Russias military is old and decrepit, (so was Ukraine's), this does not mean that Russia has used up their more advanced equipment like their missiles and so on. We have been hearing this for months now that Russia does not have anymore equipment. Where do you get this from? How come they keep fighting? How come they keep winning if Ukraine has all this new high tech NATO equipment you talk about?
>They wouldn't be using bombs that miss a majority of their targets and they need to drop multiples of if they were actually using proper, modern weaponry which the NATO weaponry the Ukrainians have shows.
It doesn't matter because they are still winning. And how come Ukraine is losing the artillery war when Ukraine has more modern artillery then Russia does?
>A bunch of soldiers aren't even being sent out with proper equipment like dotted sights or scope.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html
>Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces
>Grinding conflict in east is ‘seriously demoralising’ Ukrainian forces
>Despite receiving billions in military aid, Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline are still in need of equipment. Supply chain issues have forced soldiers to craft versions of javelin batteries, a crucial component to the rocket systems that are used to fight Russian tanks, themselves. David Martin has more.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-ammo-shortage-artillery.html
You are overdosing so hard on copium its unreal
Anon but they did stop using their modern missiles and started to use old soviet ASMs instead.And they did start to send old tanks.How were the reports saying that they were running out of modern equipment wrong?
This is not conclusive evidence that they no longer have high tech equipment. Do you not think that they perhaps make cost benefit assessment's and chose when to use their new and expensive vs when to use their old outdated?
This whole idea that they are running out of shit has been said for 3-4 months now. Its copium out the fricking ass.
The cost benefit analysis of using obsolete reserve vehicles is terrible. Not only are they completely different models and don't have trained crews but also need different spares and put a huge strain on Russian supply lines. Their use is completely ineffective and only uses up resources.
If Russia, for example, still had T-72As base models (the worst of the worst) that would still be used over T-62s. The fact that they now use T-62s means they ran out of modern equipment.
The Vatniks even agreed with this assessment and argued that they will be used as static guns. Now that they are used as actual tanks the cope is... I don't even know or care anymore.
>This whole idea that they are running out of shit has been said for 3-4 months now.
And they are reduced to 1960s equipment. You can cope, deny and delude yourself into thinking it's a good idea or doesn't mean that hypersonic T-14s will show up any day. But that's a moronic lie you are telling yourself
I don't believe its cope at all. They are not sending their best equipment because they don't need to. Given the conditions on the ground the tanks they are sending are good enough to do the job. If they where facing a different army with different equipment it might have mattered.
>and don't have trained crews but also need different spares and put a huge strain on Russian supply lines. Their use is completely ineffective and only uses up resources.
How are these tanks putting strain on supply lines? A tank is a tank, transporting is the same shit.
It also makes no sense you say "they are completely ineffective (wrong) and they "use up resources", if these tanks where completely ineffective it wouldn't even count as using up resources. They would just be happy to get rid of them so they could replace them.
I am not coping or being delusional. Tanks are tanks even though they are from the 60's. They are firepower and armor and used together with the other equipment they are good enough to do the job and fight the Ukrainians.
>We are seeing bombing runs by planes from Russia to Snake Island just a day or two ago that missed 2/4 of their shots
This happens all the time and its not anything particular to Russian planes.
>We saw with the mall bombing that Russia doesn't even have accurate shells anymore and are having to rely on missiles that hit general areas since they missed the factory right next to it.
I don't know which incident you are talking about. But i am sure there was no weapons and supplies hidden in that mall.
>We saw with the mall bombing that Russia doesn't even have accurate shells anymore
So what was the mall bombing? Was it a bombing from plane? If so they don't use shells for that. Was it shelling from artillery? Or was it missile lunched from land, sea or whatever? Once again not shell.
>Anon, they are getting supplied by every NATO country out there.
It dosn't matter. They are not getting enough weapons. There is something wrong with the weapons that they ARE getting. The artillery comes without the aiming/coordination systems that makes them accurate, (see other link in this thread about artillery)
NATO cannot supply enough of the high accuracy artillery shells due NATO lacking both STOCKPILES and the ability to produce more due to lacking industry as shown here
>https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
The supply systems are not working, there is a long way to the frontline in Ukraine and Russian planes and missiles can take out transporting weapons. They are struggling getting the tools to the frontlines. And they also lack the training to handle these weapons properly.
They are also lacking batteries to operate the Javelins. One battery last 4 hours, which means they only get to lunch 2-4 missiles and they put them self in extreme risk every time they lunch them. They can't even train with the Javelins due to lacking batteries.
The whole shit is a clusterfrick. Stop coping
>Except I wasn't talking about Howitzers. I was talking about basic things like modernized guns, modern ammunition, modern artillery, modern missiles, drones, all that good stuff.
Yeah there was a lot of old rifles and uniforms on the Russian side, but they still have rifles, ammo and man power despite the old equipment.
Here is the reality of Ukranian front lines
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2022/06/04/ukraine-is-getting-rockets-and-tanks-from-the-west-but-front-line-soldiers-scrounge-for-bullets.html
>Ukrainian front lines continue to be populated by at times dangerously ill-equipped fighters.
>They are lacking bullets and extra magazines for their rifles, one Canadian fighter said.
>They charge into battle in running shoes and mismatched uniforms, according to an American turning Ukrainians into combat medics.
>Fighters with bulletproof vests and protective helmets are often indebted to private donors and Ukrainian business owners who have transformed their factories into makeshift production facilities.
>“We get two to three weeks to train these guys the best we can for what they’re going to face when they go to Donetsk or Kherson or anywhere like that to fight,” he told the Star from Tulsa, Okla., where he was picking up supplies to bring back to Ukraine.
>A normal combat medic course might take as long as four months and include instruction on advanced first aid, starting an IV and administering medicine.
>But acquiring powerful painkillers like morphine, fentanyl, ketamine and propofol, or Quikclot, a fast-acting agent that helps stop traumatic bleeding, is “next to impossible,” Pasqualle said.
>The disconnect between the weapons pledges made to Ukraine by western governments and the reality for tens of thousands of front-line fighters is jarring
So Ukraine is basically the confederacy? Kino.
shill be gone
this post is the literal dictionary definition of cope
Because it's 3000x the number of hapless conscript buttholes and rustbucket cold war equipment, is how. Russkis redeployed every single vet they had with all the best equipment they could rustle up, and Severodonetsk/Lyschansk was the result after four long months. They blew their load, and now Ukie HIMARS are blowing theirs, kek. They can now reach their precious supply trains and depots throughout the East, and the only tactic that they ever had that worked was "shell the frick out of everything". Maybe they can load rocks into their artillery, lol.
Russia may have more equipment for now, but it hasn't mobilized properly for manpower advantage.
>Russia may have more equipment for now, but it hasn't mobilized properly for manpower advantage.
Neither have the economic sanctions taken effect on Russia and won't until Autumn. At that point Russia will be doing well to not have mass unrest, hunger and rebellion but I suspect Putin will go full Stalin and 10 million Russians will go straight to the gulag and die there to keep things ticking over until spring
Right now it seems like we're heading for a stalemate. Ukraine doesn't have the ability to repel russia completely and russia lacks the ability to invade much further. Ukraine won't come to the negotiating table because Russia's word means nothing to them. Russia won't come to the table because they're banking on the west abandoning Ukraine before Russia runs out of steam.
Its full WW1 mode where hundreds are dying at a time to get a couple meters of land that’ll be counterattacked in due time anyways. I think like some others ITT said Ukraine will likely bring about Putin calling off attacking Ukraine proper anymore but will keep Luhansk, Crimea, and Donetsk. Given that they were right on Kievs doorstep thats a pretty big turnaround IMO. Now you’ll just see Winter War levels of coping coming from vatniks from here on out and this war either way it ends may unironically break the Russian Federation just like WW1 broke the tsardom from how much irreplacable losses on everything they faced just for some meme territory that was already under their control to begin with.
>Putin calling off attacking Ukraine proper anymore but will keep Luhansk, Crimea, and Donetsk
There is no p[respect of Russia retaining any territory it took via aggression from 2014-2022 for Russian speaking minorities. It is fairly obvious why.
The USSR sucked, the soviet union sucks, putin sucks even worse and Russia sucks even worse, eastern Europe will not let Russia win in Ukraine. If Russia tries to win this war it will destroy itself doing so. It is worth remembering that the demand was not just that Ukraine become a Russian puppet state and leaves all aspirations to join the demonstrably wealthier, less corrupt and more secure westn state sin nato and the eu but that ALL the states such as poland and the baltics that have joined NATO leave it and become part of a Moscow run imperial economic block.
Russia will nto win this war and will die if it tries to. In addition Russia will be a broken impoverished mess for a generation to stop this insanity EVER reoccurring and ordinary Russians deserve that because they knew this was bullying belligerent lying pointless thuggery and murder and they cheered it on.
Since you are asking here, you probably want a short answer, which is always impossible. But my view is this:
Russia is pyrhiccally not-winning forward in some places now and will eventually be not losing all the way behind feb24 border. The rest of the disputed land might get in time resolved politically.
If you want some better than news info sources. I strongly suggest videos from Perun and such.
In Ukraine, they complained about the main drawback of the American M777 howitzers.
Against the background of how the Ukrainian military lost about 85% of the American M777 howitzers, the Armed Forces of Ukraine spoke about the main drawback of this weapon, which led to a large number of destroyed and disabled guns of this type. As it turned out, the main problem of M777 howitzers is their low mobility, and therefore, attempts to strike lead to the need to immediately think about retreat.
According to the Ukrainian military, after 2-3 volleys, the deployment positions of M777 light howitzers are revealed and counterattacks are launched on them. Attempts to quickly withdraw the howitzers are not possible, since the process takes a long time. Moreover, according to the Ukrainian military, howitzers are very quickly damaged by fragments of exploding ammunition, which makes them unsuitable for further use, while the repair of guns is very lengthy.
This problem was probably taken into account by other countries, since the M777 howitzers were no longer supplied to Ukraine and were replaced by self-propelled artillery mounts, which are more mobile and more resistant to damage.
Пoдpoбнee нa: https://avia-pro.net/news/vsu-nazvali-glavnyy-nedostatok-amerikanskih-gaubic-m777?ysclid=l5azx2ynox263228946
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/europe/us-ukraine-howitzers.html
>The most lethal weapons the West has provided so far to Ukraine are now deployed in combat. Will they make a critical difference for Ukraine’s
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH
Russia has taken land Ukraine is unlikely to take back and continues to advance, Ukraine is making them pay for every step in blood.
Everyone likes to act like every Wunderwaffe NATO sends is making a real difference but I think only the guided arty combined with glowie intel is making an impact.
Ukraine still desperatly needs SAMs / fighters to clear the sky but it looks like NATO is worried deleting the Russian airforce might make Putin push the button.
Long term I see Ukraine accepting peace while conceding territory and Russia undergoing their second collapse since the 90s, Ukraine should take that chance to reclaim land.
Geopolitcally Russia has proven themselves a corrupt joke and Western Europe has finally been forced into energy independence. Expect Assad to finally fall as Russia can't afford to play there anymore and the Qatar / Turkey pipeline would be the death nail for the Russian economy.
China might start viewing Russia as Italy to their Germany and not be as willing to count on them in a major war.
Thats actually a pretty solid summation
*China might start viewing Russia as Poland to their Germany
I bet there is already secret discussions with USA how Russia should be split between them
>and Russia undergoing their second collapse since the 90s
Are there any thing that suggests that Russia will collapse?
>Ukraine should take that chance to reclaim land.
So you think Ukraine will lose, then after a while Russia collapses and then Ukraine starts war to take back lost land?
>Geopolitcally Russia has proven themselves a corrupt joke
They also proven that Western politicians are if not corrupt jokes, then incompetent jokes. Western countries are now falling apart due the sanctions that THEY imposed. The war has also showed us that Western countries military are also is a pretty dismal state in terms of weapon's stockpiled and more worryingly the lacking industry to create new ones.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
>US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.
>The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.
>in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production.
>The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. This production will probably increase despite Western sanctions. In April, ODK Saturn, which makes Kalibr missile motors, announced an additional 500 job openings. This suggests that even in this field, the West only has parity with Russia.
>US reports on the defence industrial base have made it clear that ramping up production in war-time may be challenging, if not impossible, due to supply chain issues and a lack of trained personnel due to the degradation of the US manufacturing base.
>The war in Ukraine demonstrates that war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability. The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts and ammunition production.
> For the US to act as the arsenal of democracy in defence of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner and the scale at which the US organises its industrial base. This situation is especially critical because behind the Russian invasion stands the world’s manufacturing capital – China. As the US begins to expend more and more of its stockpiles to keep Ukraine in the war, China has yet to provide any meaningful military assistance to Russia. The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition. If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must first radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime.
Has it occurred to you the expenditure of ammo is due less to it being peer-to-peer and more that the Russians are pathetically inefficient wasting a lot of shots?
You are missing the point charlie. The Russians are as accurate as their equipment allows them. They are using rather old artillery and shelling larger areas. Their accuracy is no worse then what any other country would be given the same weapons. That is besides the point. Did you read the article? NATO does not have the fricking industry to sustain the production needed to keep up a war. Do you comprehend what that means?
>Unfortunately, this is not only the case with artillery. Anti-tank Javelins and air-defence Stingers are in the same boat. The US shipped 7,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine – roughly one-third of its stockpile – with more shipments to come. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 missiles a year, though this number might ramp up to 4,000 in a few years. Ukraine claims to use 500 Javelin missiles every day.
>The initial stockpile in February 2022 is unknown, but considering expenditures and the requirement to hold substantial stockpiles back in case of war with NATO, it is unlikely that the Russians are worried. In fact, they seem to have enough to expend operational-level cruise missiles on tactical targets. The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. This production will probably increase despite Western sanctions. In April, ODK Saturn, which makes Kalibr missile motors, announced an additional 500 job openings. This suggests that even in this field, the West only has parity with Russia.
Flawed Assumptions
The first key assumption about future of combat is that precision-guided weapons will reduce overall ammunition consumption by requiring only one round to destroy the target. The war in Ukraine is challenging this assumption. Many ‘dumb’ indirect fire systems are achieving a great deal of precision without precision guidance, and still the overall ammunition consumption is massive. Part of the issue is that the digitisation of global maps, combined with a massive proliferation of drones, allows geolocation and targeting with increased precision, with video evidence demonstrating the ability to score first strike hits by indirect fires.
The second crucial assumption is that industry can be turned on and off at will. This mode of thinking was imported from the business sector and has spread through US government culture. In the civilian sector, customers can increase or decrease their orders. The producer may be hurt by a drop in orders but rarely is that drop catastrophic because usually there are multiple consumers and losses can be spread among consumers. Unfortunately, this does not work for military purchases. There is only one customer in the US for artillery shells – the military. Once the orders drop off, the manufacturer must close production lines to cut costs to stay in business. Small businesses may close entirely. Generating new capacity is very challenging, especially as there is so little manufacturing capacity left to draw skilled workers from. This is especially challenging because many older armament production systems are labour intensive to the point where they are practically built by hand, and it takes a long time to train a new workforce. The supply chain issues are also problematic because subcomponents may be produced by a subcontractor who either goes out of business, with loss of orders or retools for other customers or who relies on parts from overseas, possibly from a hostile country.
>with video evidence demonstrating the ability to score first strike hits by indirect fires.
Those are laser or GPS guided. Or just plain luck.
>Expect Assad to finally fall as Russia can't afford to play there anymore
How so? Russia is doing just fine economically.
Yeah.
Just like Venezuela, another successful economy solely relying on oil and gas and the glory of the great leader.
Putin has announced his intention to escalate the war. I think he's going to badly overplay Russia's hand by trying to plow deep into Ukrainian territory, squandering the best chance to take any Ukrainian land via his military's destruction.
Swear, I've seen exact threads on here, with the same replies and wording.
Russia has dropped any pretense of performing mechanized warfare, leading to both sides grinding each other down - one due to necessity, the other due to incompetence
Honestly, I think there’s so much propaganda from both sides saturating all sources of news that the only way to tell for sure were to actually be in the country yourself.
Russia is winning
Ukrainians are getting minced and losing more and more soldiers every day
China’s near monopoly on rare earth materials is an obvious challenge here. Stinger missile production will not be completed until 2026, in part due to component shortages. US reports on the defence industrial base have made it clear that ramping up production in war-time may be challenging, if not impossible, due to supply chain issues and a lack of trained personnel due to the degradation of the US manufacturing base.
Finally, there is an assumption about overall ammunition consumption rates. The US government has always lowballed this number. From the Vietnam era to today, small arms plants have shrunk from five to just one. This was glaring at the height of the Iraq war, when US started to run low on small arms ammunition, causing the US government to buy British and Israeli ammunition during the initial stage of the war. At one point, the US had to dip into Vietnam and even Second World War-era ammo stockpiles of .50 calibre ammunition to feed the war effort. This was largely the result of incorrect assumptions about how effective US troops would be. Indeed, the Government Accountability Office estimated that it took 250,000 rounds to kill one insurgent. Luckily for the US, its gun culture ensured that small arms ammunition industry has a civilian component in the US. This is not the case with other types of ammunition, as shown earlier with Javelin and Stinger missiles. Without access to government methodology, it is impossible to understand why US government estimates were off, but there is a risk that the same errors were made with other types of munitions.