The only rail line connecting eastern Ukraine and Russia with the western front and Crimea runs through this town. Can the Ukies take it with the current push?
Tokmak
The only rail line connecting eastern Ukraine and Russia with the western front and Crimea runs through this town. Can the Ukies take it with the current push?
I imagine that's what they're gunning for
There's more places that railroad can be cut. For example there's only one real defensive line between this railroad and Ukrainian push at Velyka Novoselivka
What push? The counter offensive has failed on the first day and all "attacks" were repulsed.
And then your mom ran out of krokodil.
Maybe, but they can get their arty in range now.
They don't need to take the town. The rail line runs due east of it too. Get close enough and you won't be able to run any trains on it anyway.
Last reported fighting was outside of Robotnye, which is only 25km away. Another 10km and the railroad is not only in range, it's in close range.
May we see the Leopards?
No, they've all been destroyed can;t you read?
>May we see the Leopards?
the leopars are GONE karen, there are no more leopards
It makes more sense than anything else as a strategic objective right now. However, most of the progress is not actually on this front. It's entirely possible that everything around Bakhmut and in Donetsk oblast is just to draw Russia's forces in to free up a push on Tokmak, but of course if Russia just ignores those pushes then that has costs of its own.
They also seem to be gunning for Bilmak
The most critical points of that railway line are here:
47.07875587991802, 35.486473871988906
and
47.21213168555489, 36.12367949106939
(put that into google maps)
Those are the railway bridges on both sides of Tokmak, the first one 25 km south-west of the city and the other 31km east of the city. Both are bridging over rivers and/or swamplands. Blow those up, and all rail traffic stops. And bridges will be much, much harder to repair.
Both are easily within HIMARS range, but if they can get regular artillery within 30 km of each, they are toast anyway. Destroying bridges, especially the one south-west of Tokmak will cut off all heavy supplies to pretty much entire Tokmak-Mariupol line. All the russian superfortress-level foxholes in the region will have very little in terms of resupply, reinforcement, artillery ammo, fuel, food etc. Everything has to be brought to nearest functional railway line, unpacked from trains, repacked to trucks, then trickling along the whole defensive line, and then dispensed to troops on ground. And without pallets, it's going to be twice as hard.
Oh, once those bridges blow up, it's going to be twice the shit-show it already is.
There's another line coming up from crimea, the rail bridge across the kerch strait has been carrying full loads since late january.
Your mum carries full loads.
Also, once rail link is severed, the Kerch Bridge can just be Storm Shadowed can't it?
Each kilometer taken brings them closer not only to the Tokmak railway, but also to the Kerch bridge. Once the railway is within dumb towed arty range and the bridge is knocked out, Crimea and east Kherson oblast will be cut off.
They're already out of water due to the dam being blown.
The kerch bridge isnt going to be as simple as people make it out to be. Russia had a LOT of AD down there. Its going to take a lot of storm shadows + malds to knock it out and i dont know if the ukranian airforce has enough frames to launch an attack of that size?
I always wondered this, what stops those exact missiles from being simply launched by a ground launcher like HIMARS?
nothing, infact the u.s used to have ground launcher vehicles for cruise missiles. Its just that none of them exist right now, since NATO has always had complete air superiority and gigantic airforces
Iirc american ground launchers for cruise missiles were discontinued/scrapped due to a subsection of the START II treaty in exchange for reductions in soviet/russian road-mobile ICBM launcher numbers.
Well, considering several Su-24s have disappeared from the aviation museum in Kyiv+the fact that there were tons of mothballed 24s both in Ukraine and Poland/other allies, I think the answer is a "yes"
It has been comfortably within HIMARS range long before the counteroffensive even began. Do they keep the launchers so far behind their own lines that they can only hit munitions depots near the front?
Russia has been shooting down GMLRS fairly consistently with Pantsir and TOR lately, its probable they have a few of those around Tokmak and the railway line considering how crucial it is. The ukranians may want to get closer before they try
Sure about that
My guess is once Ukies have access to the Azov coast again they'll use suicide drone boats to go after the bridge supports, but it's probably not worth wasting Storm Shadows on given they're highly unlikely to take it out for long and are better used on other targets.
>given they're highly unlikely to take it out for long
Why? I assume it's accurate enough to target a bridge support with enough HE to take it down
I'm assuming the supports are too small to target with storm shadow and they'd be lucky to hit the deck. Maybe I'm underestimating it.
Your assumption is wrong. The kerch bridge was hit with 20 tons of high explosives without losing a support. The Antonovsky bridge in Kherson was shelled nightly for months without losing a support - the spans were holed enough to make them unusable, but the supports were fine.
There are a couple false assumptions being made here.
1) We do not have absolute confirmation but it is likely the Storm Shadows are not being used to their fullest potential and will thus have reduced accuracy. Particularly, it seems high unlikely that they are making use of the datalink capabilities for targeting updates. Even with those the SS is having a CEP measured in meters, which is well within the bounds of missing a support (recall that CEP is only a measure of where 50%+ of the rounds will fall). Now consider that we haven't even discussed Russian EW capabilties (degraded as they are) to make that even worse.
2) The warheads are too small, flat out. Storm Shadow has a 450 kilo (950lbs-ish) warhead. The best info we have is dropping bombs in Korea and Vietnam where it took several multiple-thousand bombs to do the job. I'd additionally argue that building materials/methods in use today result in more resistant structures than we saw in mid 20th century eastern aisa.
Basically, its harder to hit than you think and even if you did it wouldn't be a knockout blow. Final point: Ukraine didn't get a lot of these; low double digits seems a likely reasonable call.
the total circular error they could miss inside is about 6M total, with more than half being inside, and a single support of the bridge is almost that big anyway; Russia doesn't actually have EW capabilities, that was one of the biggest lies ever, krasuhka turned out to be a microwave with a funnel pointed up. It can block exactly one thing, and has no ability to actually track said thing, it's a garbage system and all the other russians ECM suites are similarly bad.
The warheads being too small, that might actually be correct unless they want to spam the entire inventory they received. Modern russians aren't building anything to last, they aren't the soviets of yore, and the kerch bridge has already taken fire damage weakening the structure though, so neither of us know if it would work, or not.
>and a single support of the bridge is almost that big anyway
Do you have info on how big the supports are that you can link? I would like to see that.
>Russia doesn't actually have EW capabilities
Okay, sure
>The warheads being too small, that might actually be correct
You probably could do it with a specifically designed smaller warhead but afaia SS isn't that.
>Modern russians aren't building anything to last
Okay, sure
>and the kerch bridge has already taken fire damage weakening the structure though
Read the news. Roadway spans were replaced months ago and they finished up with the railway a month ago.
>so neither of us know if it would work, or not.
Brilliant contribution. Now, cCan you tell me what color the sky is?
Russia's EW is downing AFU drones by the dozen, degrading their communications, degrading GPS accuracy and even breaking encrypted comms in a few cases. That's all according to Ukraine. Pretty good for nonexistent garbage.
Exaggerating helps no one. True, Russian EW effectiveness was exaggerated to comical levels by credulous western "journalists" pre war, but they do actually have functioning systems and they are getting better at using them.
>but if they can get regular artillery within 30 km of each,
yup. this is what I have been thinking is the minimum viable objective. Dumbfire arty spam with enough room around it to not get consistently counter batteried.
>try to capture tokamak
>it's 20 years away
>The only rail line connecting eastern Ukraine and Russia with the western front and Crimea
I think you will find you are mistaken
https://reliefweb.int/map/ukraine/ukraine-complex-map-railways-ukraine-5-mar-2022
>map shows a single rail line and the aforementioned Kerch bridge being the sole logistical connections available
What do you see that I don't?
You almost checked all the boxes, should have mentioned trannies too.
I know the roadway on the Kerch bridge got completely replaced and I know they had started in on the railway months ago. Did that ever finish?
>Can the Ukies take it with the current push?
No, they are losing way too many men and vehicles and they have not even reached the first fortified Russian defense line yet. There are at least 3 major fortified defense lines before Tokmak.
What happens if the Ukies miraculously push through the first defense line? They will be in a salient which is getting hit with overwhelming artillery fire and being strafed with attack helis, with hostile Russian troops on 3 sides and several more rows of dragons teeth, minefields, tank ditches, bunkers etc before Tokmak. The whole plan was based on Russian troops losing morale and running away from their positions which has failed to materialize. Russia has reserves in Zapo and Crimea which they can move in Tokmak which are as numerous as the entire amount of Ukro troops participating in the offensive. The whole thing was an incredibly risky bet, the Ukrainians didnt even want to launch it until they received F-16’s but the Khazar reptilians in the State Department wouldnt take no for an answer.
>t. copium-addled piyavka
>There are at least 3 major fortified defense lines before Tokmak
There's 2, Ukies are through the first.
burn
>There's 2, Ukies are through the first.
Wrong moron, the first one is at least 5-10km south of the current fighting. That’s why none of the footage has shown tank ditches or dragons teeth. The first major line is where the red dots are in the bottom of this pic, and the 2nd and 3rd lines are even more extensive.
That's the 2nd one you absolute moron
no we've moved it.
What you are calling the first one was just the contact line, which had a smattering of minefields but is really insignificant compared to the 3 lines below it (see pic related). The Ukrainians have not yet passed the line that the tip of the blue arrow in pic related is touching. That’s when the real test begins.
They are there right now (I suspect based on zigger telegram)
>there are approaching the settlement but are not there yet
>they are there right now
Are you ESL?
Also, the actual line is south of the settlement itself, which AFU has not even entered into yet according to your own picture.
This was from this morning I assume they moved down
>That’s when the real test begins.
That is truly when the finger shall reach the ass and then we shall know what men are made of
>That’s when the real test begins.
>finger in the Bear's ass makes the eyebrows raise
>insignificant compared to the 3 lines below it
What are you basing that on?
So the fourth line is final?
Village names:
>The key?
Pisskey?
>desire
Haha
>not boring
Indeed
>it will curl
thats so crazy how these "major lines" curve to avoid the territory ukraine has captured and are just infront of them, cant wait for them to capture it tonight and you to spread some other misinfo tomorrow
how cozy is cozy really?
Purification village
>Wrong moron, the first one is at least 5-10km south of the current fighting
>Real defensive lines have never been tried before
>pic
False flag too obvious
>false flag
lol I laugh at vaxxtards
Here is a study that /k/ will especially appreciate
>Vaccinated Veterans MORE Likely to Die from COVID, VA Study Proves
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/vaccinated-veterans-more-likely-to
On many occasions when they have taken a position in this offensive the Russians counterattack shortly after, so I wouldnt bet on it. It also makes sense that they would first try to consolidate and bring forward artillery before actually trying to penetrate the dragons teeth and tank traps instead of just pushing into it right away. It’s highly unlikely that they are attacking into the fortified defense line south of the settlement at this moment.
Alright, I do however think that they will punch through there soon, today or tomorrow
>Igor Chudov
Sometimes the jokes just write themselves
i like how the page you cited assumes all the veterans were of the same age group without even a shred of evidence
They ar elosing barely any men and vehicles. Still no pciture of any casualties and ~90% of "lost" vehicles are in recoverable condition.
The Ukies will dissassemble the defense line on a wide front, overwhelming ukrainian counterbattery fire will exterminate all zigger artillery and russian airpower has already been proven useless. Russian counterattack attempts will be slaughtered one-sidedly. The plan was based on the existing total ukrainian superiority in firepower, equipment, training, experience, leadership and general competence, meaning that an givne number of ukrainian troops is worth easily ten times their number in moronic mobik cannonfodder.
You're losing, zigger. Deal with it.
Take your sputnik vaccine
>Jonestown COVIDhoax "meme"
frog posting should be an instant 30-day ban
The Russian defensive lines are moving faster than the glorious Russian advance in Bakhmut
>they are losing way too many men and vehicles
the US just announced they will replace every destroyed western armored vehicle with a new one
VatBlack folk BTFO
They seem to have decided to focus more on the Mariupol push for the S+ rating and access to Tomahawk missiles.
soon the ass will clench and every one will understand that when the bear raises its eyebrow the thunder is striking without *~~*~~*~~*~~
Do people really think these "major defensive lines" are some sort of superfortress? They're mostly trenches with a ditch or a berm thrown in occasionally.
Ziggers do
>Ukraine puts some defensive lines around Bakhmut
>OMG IMPENETRABLE FORTRESS WE'RE SLAUGHTERING ORCS AT 1:10 RATIOS
>Russia puts some defensive lines on the frontline
>n-no just trenches haha
Yeah
let's see how that goes for you in a few days zister
Russians are generally worse at warfare
>send literal penal battalion meat waves at an irrelevant city for almost a year
>die by the tousands
>said leader of meat waves openly hostile with other russian leaders to the point of kidnapping colonels and getting mined by the Russian army
>why does world laugh at Russia?
IDK man, if it takes the Ukrainians ten months to take Staromlynovka this will be a good point, but for now I am not impressed by maps with a ton of red lines drawn on them. You could probably draw those lines anywhere in Ukraine and so far minefields have proved far more effective at stopping offensives (by both sides) compared to trenches.
The only people calling bakhmut a fortress were ziggers
I think the Ukies will avoid attacking at cities, rather cut the like somewhere else and hope the Russians retread sparing the city.
Imagine if the Vatnik lines of defense are just paper tigers like the rest of its army so far.
the ukies can't be stupid enough to waste forces in donbass instead of using them to collapse the pressured russian lines in the south, right?
>I'm just going to post it in every thread
By time spent and funds assigned IMHO they have enough armour accumulated to attack the whole front at once. When Russians shit pants and divert all forces to any random point, they'll just flood whatever area gets neglected.
What i'm more worried is that besides Backhmut Russia hasn't made much offensives either. IMHO they're waiting to deploy some saved up attack force too. Most likely when ukraines momentum alows and they havent yet secured regained lands.
If you are hearing about it in international news, its because they want you to hear about it. Use your brain.
Didn't want to make a thread on this, but anyone know what's going on in alchevsk? Picrel.
Picrel is railways in the donbass, could they trying to cut off supplies to somewhere in particular? Or is there no panic in alchevsk and it's just a smoking accident?
there is 0 chance they will take Tokmak
simply won't happen, not with the losses they are taking