russia's stock of tanks is being depleted at a unsustainable rate due to the costly offensive, and will be gone in less than a year.
will putin: 1. reduce number of attacks to allow inventories to replenish or 2. double down and keep attacking?
the russian tank problem
They don't need tanks when China can supply them with any amount of golfcarts
not optimal for attacking 😉
my estimates put it at 200 restored (10 known plants w avg 20 tanks), 40 new built / month. not enough to keep up with the cost of war though
dont know if IFV/APCs are really in a worse state than num tanks, time will tell
they only showed a single "symbolic" t-34 in last years parade, so i doubt they are holding any back for this years parade
they already have, but china/NK is not too keen on openly joining russia
Are these new tanks new new or refurbs? Is the thing about russia not being able to produce new hulls a meme?
He's lying. Russia can barely build new hulls.
Second part, how much of a bottleneck is that for russia's tank production? The hulls seem to usually survive, it seems like explosions usually just shoot out components. Can they just cycle the thousands of hulls littered around Ukraine in and out indefinitely?
>the hulls seem to survive
Dude, we’ve seen shitty fpv drones with rpg7 rockets punch a hole straight through t-80 and even t-90 armor. When they get hit with something that blows their turrets up into the sky, and the entire thing catches fire, the hull is a complete and total write off. You would be hard pressed to scrap the metal from it, let alone an actually usable hull. Not to mention the electronics, gun chamber, seats, and everything else in the destroyed. Even the simple ‘hand grenade in the hatch’ trick will burn out a tank. How would Russia even scavenge their destroyed hulls anyway? Most are probably behind Ukrainian lines or too close to the front to deal with. Russia might be making small gains everyday for the moment, but they have still lost so much territory that they once held.
tank is tank *~~)
The ATVs used on both sides are for frontline transport, not assaulting. It’s perfectly acceptable to use civilian vehicles if real military trucks aren’t available.
>It’s perfectly acceptable to use civilian vehicles if real military trucks aren’t available.
no it is not holy shit have you ever been outside???
Go on a survival hike in the mud carrying 80 lbs for 10 miles and get back to me on your "outside" experience.
>The ATVs used on both sides are for frontline transport, not assaulting
We had multiple videos of ATVs used as part of assaults, why are you lying so blatantly?
Yes.
Isn't their main problem the serious shortage of IFVs and APCs?
regardless of who wins the US elections he will go hard on the "we need to stop the bloodshed and have a ceasefire" narrative immediately after it
what we are seeing now are his attempts to gain a little more ground before that time
that's my prediction anyway
very optimistic delusion
Putin has objectives and they are not related to America. Kharkov is next and then Odessa bide your time
>Odessa
Don't think VDV can swim that far lol.
Most delusional post ITT
>Putin has objectives
I don't think banan can be called objective.
>US election
You're delusional if you think the US election matters to anyone in this war except moronic Americans.
welp can't the orange guy sign an executive order to send 5000 Abrahams to Russia?
continuing american supply is a very material factor for Ukraine.
Honestly, recent events have shown that Europe surprisingly is a better and stronger ally than the US, which is amazing considering we spend most of our time trying to frick each other over. All America bailing would do is extend the war by a year or two and it would end in Russia losing anyway, hell, it would be a worse loss as they'd probably suffer more casualties in more desperate assaults because "this time" they'll break the weak westerners.
Europa Über Alles, I guess.
I don't think US aid stopped because it keeps getting transported through my country, either this stuff has been in transit for half a fricking year or the US found a loophole to trick the traitorous reps
USAI stuff still gets delivered, but that too was announced at the latest almost half a year ago.
Baseden did use a few loopholes since the Trumpanzee chimpout, he sold some shit to Greeks and had them transfer their stuff to Ukraine, he also used some WH funds of 300 mil a month back. The problem is that its all pittance compared to the aid bill stuck in Congress
I think the same thing is happening with Kosovo, which is sending from what I read equipment that had been donated by America to Ukraine, which later is going to get new stuff from America for that.
Yeah because Europe funded, staffed, supplied, and manned an army for 45 years to protect themselves following WW2 right?
And they flew in fuel, food, materials, and medicine nonestop for 320+ days to a beseiged Berlin right?
And they protect our ships at sea when conducting trade right?
And they take the lead on developing fighter aircraft and helicopter right?
In Fact Europe is SO proactive on defending themselves they in fact DEFEND us!
>And they protect our ships at sea when conducting trade right?
They do
>And they take the lead on developing fighter aircraft and helicopter right?
They do
>In Fact Europe is SO proactive on defending themselves they in fact DEFEND us!
GWOT.
That doesn't count, it was before the US went full moron with Iraq 2003 and later became subverted by russian shills.
I'm surprised, because I'm looking for all of Europe's bases in America, their missiles, naval armadas (Remember Britain isn't the EU.)
And I'm looking at the GWOT stats and they aren't even 1/10th when you combine them
In fact, Europe has been more a drain on the US than anything else.
>Remember Britain isn't the EU
but is in europe
>I'm surprised, because I'm looking for all of Europe's bases in America, their missiles, naval armadas
Irrelevant argument as American bases in Europe only directly benefit america.
>And I'm looking at the GWOT stats and they aren't even 1/10th when you combine them
Men were sent, wars were fought, you don't get to magically proclaim it doesn't count because there were less soldiers of nations that were there to provide backup for a superior military.
>Irrelevant argument as American bases in Europe only directly benefit america.
Then why did Germany shit their pants at the mere mention of withdrawing their bases?
>NOOO AMERICA!!! you cant leave!!! its for your own good that you have to stay here and defend me!!!
>Irrelevant argument as American bases in Europe only directly benefit america.
Aside from keeping the leash extra tight on the euroBlack folk, how does the USA deploying assets to Europe benefit us? The yellow peril is our main concern now not the ruskies. The Pacific can make better use of that extra CSG and 100,000 men.
>RUSSIAN SHILLS
You are pathetic - please go back, you can't get your DNC Share Blue credits here
i love your lack of self awareness
The tanks will be kept behind the borders to be polished for the victory parade in a few weeks, to show just how stronk they are.
I wouldn't be surprised if they ask help from NK and China to restore or assist with parts in a way that there's no direct sanctions for China.
Nice hopium. Truth is Russia is nearly out of tanks (picrel) and nearing 1.5 million (one and a halve) casualties. Russia has already lost and is only waiting for putin to die and keeps attacking to not hurt his feel feels.
>picrel
tbf that looks like a build up than a tank shortage, otherwise why would the ratio change suddenly?
Any absolute figure?
Russia can easily take another 1.5 million casualties. They'll probably rack up faster since artillery and tank supplies have diminished but Russian can go another year, maybe 2 years easily before needing to make any hard choices.
i mean i do respect it:
>rob your country blind and your people of all economic perspecyives
>let them become piss poor depressed addicts en masse
>have very much people willing to die for a few pennies
i really wonder how much money / people is left.
It doesn't matter they're slaves. Putin has an infinite morale hack because he's behind a desk in a warm room.
True, it's not impossible to break the troops' morale but Russian conscripts are famous for being obedient and disposable. It'll take another year or two for them to lose hope too.
Could be. To me russia is giving strong 1917 vibes, but could be hopium.
Like 1917, but no chance of revolution.
At least in 1917 the citizens were politicized and desperate.
This time around, they all "don't care about politics" and really haven't seen a huge decline in their personal fortunes. It's business as usual in Moscow, while the poor gays are just a little poorer. The wealthier, westernized liberals are the main ones feeling the pain, but a lot of them are hanging out in south east Asia so they're not really a factor. The average Russky can still get his buckwheat, vodka, heating, and TV. They'll grumble about inflation but a lot will need to change before there's blood in the streets.
This is why Total Refinery Death is so important. ISIS could do us a solid and start torching gas stations en masse, but they usually do moron shit like shooting up movie theaters and concerts.
It was a false flag by fsb done with 5.45 comp on 7.62 ak.
Also yes, It feels to me like the attacks on economic infrastructure is the main win condition.
>Frontline defense in depth
>Behind Frontline destroy everyhin
>....
>profit
>It was a false flag by fsb done with 5.45 comp on 7.62 ak
moronic idea anon, it was just old ammo
the change in SMO to war rhetoric in the days after putins "election" would indicate that they are already having to make tough choices in mass-mobilization (a *very* touchy subject for many moscovites who would prefer to just turn a blind eye to the SMO-war)
not sure if i follow your logic here
russian losses are fairly stable for both tanks and ifv
picrel from https://ukr.warspotting.net/analytics/
People talk like touching the muscovites would be political suicide but truth is they'll die for meinmonke just like every other backwater hillbilly Siberian and Irkutstan has
yeah, it would increase the mood closer to 1917
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-war_protests_in_Russia_(2022%E2%80%93present)
if russia really were out of tanks wouldn't that be refelcted in fewer tanks killed by Ukraine?
Its not like it will drop from 10 per day to 0 in one month.
furthermore that graph can also be explained by an increase of IFV, doesnt have to be a decrease in tanks
Bmp and Mt lbs are also allmost nonexistent in materiel lost since some days so I don't think they have an increase in ifv/apc
>if russia really were out of tanks wouldn't that be refelcted in fewer tanks killed by Ukraine?
It's skewed because Russia has so far continued to throw old Soviet surplus tanks at Ukraine. If you track tank losses by type you see T-90s, T-80s, and T-72B3s falling off rapidly while older pattern T-72s, T-62s, and even T-55s start showing up.
> T-90s, T-80s, and T-72B3s falling off rapidly while older pattern T-72s, T-62s, and even T-55s start showing up.
I keep hearing this argument, and I really hope that it is true, but i cant find it in any data I am seeing (like picrel doesnt even show a single lost T-55 in march). do you have any data links to share?
T-55s aren't being lost in major numbers yet. The bulk of Russia's tank losses remain older pattern T-80s and T-72s as your pic shows. T-80Bs and T-80BVs are overrepresented in losses right now because Russia never really liked the T-80 and kept most of them in reserve, always preferring to use the T-72 instead. With T-72s increasingly becoming an endangered species, naturally they fell back on the T-80 to keep numbers up.
t80 are used more not because there are not enough 72/90 but because 80 are considered not needed, the fidth wheel., expendable, no future for them, no spare parts, no long term upgrade programs and whatnot.
They absolutely would not be using T-80s if they thought they could use something better. Same logic goes for T-62s. Fact of the matter is there's simply not enough active T-90s and T-72s to fill Russia's current needs.
>35:22
Granted this is six months old and does not entirely play with what that anon said. Yet it shows a trend that is accurate to the point.
they will never run out, they actually can make tanks and tank-like things, just nowhere near enough to maintain their current level of losses. if they can only maintain their current loss rate by refurbishment of old-stock, what do they do when those old vehicles run out? At that point you'll start seeing a lot less tank losses, but only because there are less tanks. or you'll see a surge of tank losses as they try to take some final territory before they lose their last bulk quantity of offensive capable armor.
the way this shit is going i can't help but think a military coup is on the horizon
I think that'll be more determined by how many more oil refineries the Ukes can blast than by anything that happened on the battlefield.
yeah, but krushchev famously cited stalin's terrible decisions that got countless people killed in wwii, a decade after the fact no less. it is in the russian playbook
Refinery attacks are probably going to be less common.
this post convinced me that Russia's Air defense works and doesn't allow cheap drones hundreds of kilometers into Russian airspace to destroy critical economic infrastructure.
More arrows are better
Anon, Russia needs to prevent them outright after last week's blyatzkrieg.
Eventually, yes. When there aren't enough refineries left to hit.
Then they move on to taking out Russia's nuclear silos.
I'd say the war will end when there's enough refineries hit that the oligarchs can no longer afford yacht maintenance.
61260118
Low quality bait
I recommend chug. Or if you're terminal maybe try a rope?
This is how Imperial Germany won the war. Slow and steady wins the race. Anglos simply cannot cope.
>Slow and steady
russian losses are accelerating way faster than is sustainable for them
You are dumb if you think Russia putting more and more effort and material in is a sign of failure. That's called effective mobilization enabling further offensives.
That's why the materiel is getting progressively worse, older and less effective.
Questionable. Even the disposables of Donetsk have better equipment now.
>But muh golf carts
An attempt at innovation and with some teething pains as they figure out their best use
>Buying 1000 ATVs from China for unsupported bumrushes is "teething pains from innovation"
You are fricking moronic
The acquisition was long planned for some antics in Syria and adapting to new situation will cause some losses. It is no different than unarmored HMMWV problems.
This is a stupid argument, they have a frick ton of practical experience at this point to understand that any lightly armored vehicle is a deathtrap on the front as is. Sending unarmored and practically open top vehicles into the same situations very predictably ended in disaster
>Questionable. Even the disposables of Donetsk have better equipment now
why is the casualty rate only getting worse over time then?
>>But muh golf carts
>An attempt at innovation
Yes, when I think of innovative ways to break through the front I also think of little electric buggies that would get stuck on a decent-sized pothole charging at the enemy at an amazing 7mph (8 if it hits maximum overdrive)
No one uses ATVs to assault. Not the Russians and not the Ukrainians with their large fleet of pickup trucks, buggies and sheet-metal jeeps. On the assault you only see armored vehicles, even if it’s just an MRAP, M113 or a BTR. So why do they use civilian vehicles at ALL? Because if you lack military transport having any transport at all is better than nothing. Russia has a LOT more truck production of course but Ukraine has become very adept at ambushes and FPV drone ops allowing them to frequently hit stuff behind the lines. So Russians bought a few thousand of those Chinese ATVs to make up for the losses. We’ll see how the transport side of things develop this year.
On a side note, Chinese auto manufacturers have FLOODED into Russia taking advantage of the West pulling out of Russian auto industry and China is now the world’s 2nd largest exporter of cars coming in just a little under Japan — earlier forecasts was the Russian market was going to push China to #1 in 2023 but they fell just short. I wonder how much Russian automakers are directly benefiting from China re truck production.
yes anon that's why a video that came out today was a russian unit using these fricking things to bring troops forward to a treeline they just captured, under a ukrainian artillery barrage. fricking moron.
>On a side note, Chinese auto manufacturers have FLOODED into Russia taking advantage of the West pulling out of Russian auto industry and China is now the world’s 2nd largest exporter of cars coming in just a little under Japan — earlier forecasts was the Russian market was going to push China to #1 in 2023 but they fell just short. I wonder how much Russian automakers are directly benefiting from China re truck production.
Japan will now support Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries. Anything to cuck Xi Jinping.
>Even the disposables of Donetsk have better equipment now.
May we see it?
>An attempt at innovation
LMAO, lay off the copium.
If your command is ordering MUTVs into kill zones, they’re terminally moronic. You don’t need to drive 3 dozen of them into minefields to figure this out
>T: have drafted performance requirements for actually decent NATO-used MUTVs
do you think russia infinite resources, infinite manufacturing capability, infinite motivated young men willing to sacrifice their lives to conquer part of Ukraine?
russia is on the same desperate path as nazi germany during ww2
compare
with picrel and enjoy the similarities
For the next 2-3 years yes. Comparing modern Russia to Nazi Germany is silly because the WW2 Allies were actively on the offense; not locked in a drone-eccentric attrition war.
They started with about 2k active tanks, lost about 1k a year and refurbished about 1k a year from depots. At the start they had about 10k rusty but reusable tanks in depots.
They've lost about 2500-3k tanks thus far. It's fair to assume they have more in reserve, and it's also fair to assume they've cannibalized most of the easy repairs.
The figures are similar for artillery. Russia can burn refurbished arty at ongoing rates for another 2-3 years before they risk physically running out and being reduced to what's left on the line+new builds.
How are they doing on artillery *barrels*, though? Those wear out with usage.
>infinite resources
yes
>infinite motivated young men willing to sacrifice their lives to conquer part of Ukraine?
no, but they have infinite serf caste that will b***h and moan and gleefully get slaughtered in suicide missions
>infinite manufacturing capability
lol,lmao
but they can shit out a lot of primitive-ish gear if they go full war economy, certainly more than ukrops can
it remains to be seen whether ruling classes like mansions and yachts more than victory
>no, but they have infinite serf caste that will b***h and moan and gleefully get slaughtered in suicide missions
They got a billion brown people ready to sacrifice themselves to defeat the White man.
the fun part of the graph of an exponent is that if you zoom in, you'll still see an exponent. So you cannot say what phase you are currently in.
The surprising thing is that the total artillery death that began with last year's counteroffensive has continued on unabated. Russia still has the advantage in number of tubes and (for the moment at least) shell availability, but that hasn't led to a reduction of the loss rate. Some of that might be due to Ukraine's use of drones, but we tend not to get footage of drone attacks on artillery so I doubt it's the leading cause.
I mean, I know I've seen the videos and all, but I still can't believe that Russia has lost almost 600 soldiers a day
>Literally just an image of the frontline steadily advancing
It advanced in the other direction, chud
Two years ago they were farther away thoughever
>Two years ago
*Checks notes*
yep, thats your problem right *there*
>3day smo
>2 years ago
>no problem
Thoughbeit your earlier statement is objectively incorrect. Get owned by facts and logic.
The borders are not further away than they were in spring of 2022.
>Because the AFU is (HEADCANON)
Glad to see you frickers can't keep up the neutroooler façade still. 1 million shells coming soon and more support from the EU than ever spun up btw.
It will be an interesting summer.
>1 million shells coming soon
*by ~2025
>more support from the EU than ever spun up btw
the totality of which, monthly, at full surge in 2027, will be roughly Russia current ~42hr expenditure depending on what part of the front you took the median number from
>the totality of which, monthly, at full surge in 2027, will be roughly Russia current ~42hr expenditure depending on what part of the front you took the median number from
moron.
>by ~2025
1 million only from Czechs in the next few months. 1.5 mil from EU in 2024 and if US passes the 60 billion bill then probably something from them too.
>1 million only from Czechs
300k
by June-July
in dubious conditions
in the best case
300k in the next few weeks. They've started shipping those already. Full amount in the next couple of months.
Do you reckon about two weeks?
Where are your sources on the shell conditions, or that they will not actually be 300,000?
Why do you have cope so hard that The West is just richer, better, and has a stronger will than Russia?
>The West is just richer, better
Absolutely
>and has a stronger will
Doubtful. Europe will continue to exist if Ukraine goes down, although in a compromised state. Conversely Russia is done for if they don't snatch out some kind of victory from this. Even if its population wasn't raised by feeding them nationalistic propaganda (which it has) they would be far more invested into this than some beurocrat in bruxelles, let alone the average Jean, Pablo or Mario in western europe. Maybe the slavs would be more ballsy
But the population isn't invested. Putin is, but that's a different story (and this isn't some "Russian population is blameless, it's only PUTIN'S war" crack); Russian apathy cuts both ways. They might not give a shit about Ukrainian suffering but they aren't going to sign up to suffer themselves for the war either. This isn't like WWII era Soviet Union where people are storming the recruitment centers to stop the Nazis; they're not on the defensive. Prigozhin's convoy was met with complete indifference by most of them.
>Prigozhin's convoy was met with complete indifference by most of them.
Hot take: they probably wouldn't have reacted all that much if it was a convoy of Ukrainians either. Like you say, they're not invested even a little. Most really don't connect the political to what happens in their own lives. If the "khokhols" came marching through, a sizable proportion they wouldn't really be afraid or mad until shooting started.
The Euros are spending billions to upgrade their weapons production facilities. Do you not see how France is basically taking Russia’s place as the world’s second largest arms exporter? Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, Czechia, Sweden, they’re all getting massive EU grants to upgrade and automate their facilities so they can steal Russia’s arms market share. If you add Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, you see a pretty stark gap between Russia and the west.
Additionally, Russia’s oil and gas market share is cratering, meaning the subsidies and grants are drying up. The 90s are coming back to Russia whether they like it or not.
We're past 500k already right now. In top condition. Your talking points are well behind what happening again, moron shill. Ask your boss to update them already.
thats 500000 from the 1mil EU wanted to supply by the Eo2023?
How many shells do you think Russia fires every 24 hours?
>*by ~2025
Half a million have arrived already. LMAO, seethe more, zigger.
>the totality of which, monthly, at full surge in 2027, will be nothing, because at current rate Russia will have suffered total military collapse by then
FTFY. And it's currently already roughly equal or superior to Russias expenditure once one takes into account that one western shell fired by Ukrainians is easily worth more than 10-20 russian shells fired by Russians in terms of actual effectiveness in combat. And no amount of coping, seething, denying, lying and dilating on your part is going to change that, zigger vermin.
>Half a million have arrived already. LMAO, seethe more, zigger.
Didn't they promise 1 million by March? Only half the promised amount? I guess an artillery in the hand is worth 2 on paper.
>more russians are dying every day because Ukraine is out of ammo
The biggest issue they are facing is because of putins billion dollar rage attacks using drones and missiles, things like missiles they had 800 ago a week ago they have around 100. They can buy more and make more but 100 billion dollars on drone and rocket attacks against ukrainian civilians in 4 months, is pricey considering their gasoline refining income from exports and then compensating with petroleum at loser profits is costing them another 100 billion so far.
It's the only way to beat Russian. Make it to expensive for the nobles to wage a war and they revolt.
>the afu is completely out of ammo
They will replenish their storages with 1.5 million more shells by the end of April
>They will replenish their storages with 1.5 million more shells by the end of April
may i see the
delivered shells?
He literally said "at the end of April", it's March, you fricking moron.
>we never wanted Kiev! *~~))
I will never NOT laugh at the self-owns you morons do to yourselves
but keev was surrounded in 48hrs..
and sat so, for like 4months while boris cooked up his lil treachery plot...or do we forget the 50+mile long vatnik congo line?
Russia never fully surrounded Kyiv and left it after less than 2 months to never come back, with their their premier infantry and tank units being destroyed in the process.
>Kiy- I mean Herso- I mean Harki- I mean Belogorod
lol kek
All high speed pie charts and graphs aside, is there a generally agreed upon rough number of how many battle tanks they started with vs. what they have that are operational as of now?
Probably not even Russia knows it. They just send regular parties to armour depots in the middle of Siberia and hope they come back with a few hulls to refurbish.
Impossible because no one knows how many of the 12.000 t72 hulls are refurbishable.
What is evidently true is that Russia is doing assaults with golf buggies and no ifv/tanks/air support.
Also that Russia is helpless against infrastructure attacks by Ukraine which both indicate that the war is indeed lost by now.
These are my estimates based on open sources (status as of January 2022):
active storage inventory
t-62 0 800 800
t-64 0 700 700
t-72 2000 7000 9000
t-80 450 3000 3450
t-90 350 200 550
total 2800 11700 14500
picrel better editing of
>Comparing "modern" Russia to Nazi Germany is silly
war never changes kiddo, russia is trickle feeding Ukraine because it has no other options
Nazis weren't trickling. They were relaxing on the home front, then panicking. Neither describes Russia's supply situation.
Are all the tanks operational though? I can imagine sitting somewhere for decades did them no good.
Of course not. The question is how many of those 11,7000 machines were recoverable. Half?
Let's not forget that the problem is not just combat losses. Parts also wear out.
>will putin: 1. reduce number of attacks to allow inventories to replenish or 2. double down and keep attacking?
He will do what he says he wants to accomplish, which is to establish a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia and keep his conquered land.
Both objectives are very much achievable, particularly in the face of a pathetic Western opposition and a depleted Ukrainian army.
Unless Ukraine can break the frontline and reach the Azov sea splitting in two the russian forces and isolating Crimea, Putin can spin all this mess into a "win" no matter how many russians die and much of their economy goes to shit.
Yeah I'm sure people will love that explanation when their money reserves run out and bread costs 1 trillion rubles all while 1.000 Russians die daily to Australian paper planes on a frozen front.
That's the neat part. Ukraine has only one win condition:
Hold the frick out until russia does 1917 2.0
For all his sins, Putin is an effective schemer that has got rid of any rivals to the throne, and there's no real organized oppossition.
A russian collapse can only happen in the battlefield, not in the streets of Moscow.
reserves are barely dented https://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_m/
What Gayrapeans who are used to take loans for everything don't understand is that Russia didn't spend most of the oil money on anything but military things before the war, let alone living on loans. The oil/gas money were always considered as "excess". So even though they have been getting burned through the war nothing really changes that much with regard to financial stability of the state and wellbeing of an average person.
>Hold the frick out until russia does 1917 2.0
We're not anywhere close to that. Not because of the economic conditions. It's a globalized world with multiple powerful actors more interested in maintaining at least some majority portion of the status quo. There's a reason China is pussyfooting around this war nearly as much as anyone else. Why is a Russian ally drip-feeding them shit gear and giving no major support? They are just as afraid of the destabilization that comes with allowing a major confrontation to culminate, the absorption of Ukraine, etc. Meanwhile, within Russia, they are demographically nothing like 1917. They more brown, they are more Muslim, and they are way, way older on average. They're a country with declining HDI; people remember it being more developed, comfortable. Two significant factors that played into 1917 that are different now: Russia then was very rural, with all the industrial production concentrated in a handful of urban centres. The Bolsheviks' support base was almost exclusively urban workers. It was from the industrial nexus in the Centre- Northwest of the empire that their revolution poured from. Peasants mostly rolled over, because a ruler is a ruler is a ruler. Easy for things to explode when it only has to explode in two cities that were 3-5x smaller than the same two, which are still the centres of power, 100 years later. Today's Russia is more urbanized, however the population is depoliticized, apathetic, and older. Young people have the vigor and the aspirations to overthrow a government. A different future is conceivable to a 20-something. When your average citizen is that young, the likelihood of successful revolution is higher. There's also no alternative ideology. Russia has been structurally corrupt on a social and cultural level for centuries. The population will reject anything that interrupts the systems of clan relation and self-enrichment that uphold their fragile way of life.
It's difficult to impossible now, however I'd recommend you visit. It's an eye-opening experience. At the very least, find some agreeable expats in your area and chat them up. The Russian psychology is profoundly inimical to organized society. Not as we know it, coming from a Western European mindset. Their society never underwent the demographic processes that softened Western Europeans on a neuropsychological level. There was an open frontier the size of a continent where criminals escaped to. Murderers, tough guys, thieves and bandits became sponsored by the state and thus received fertility dividends. There could be no systematic rule or complete centralization and establishment of rules-based order. In this way they have very much in common with Latin America. It may sound weird to say, but their problem is mostly that on a bio-neuro-psychological scale, they are too macho for their own good. They have retained the cavemanisms we lost through guiltless execution of ruffians, and never underwent the elevation in stature of the vastly intelligent to the same degree as we did. Nonetheless they still suffered a lot of the other ills of self-domestication; they're less smart than cavemen, less cunning, less innovative, which parallels Subsaharan African biopsychodemographic trends.
>Murderers, tough guys, thieves and bandits became sponsored by the state and thus received fertility dividends.
This is the weirdest ramble I've seen on /k/.
Take your meds.
>Take your meds.
You don't know anything about the history of Latin America or the Russian Empire. In both cases, the state did sponsor bandits as frontier agents who worked in concert with merchants and explorers. Much of why Russia and South America suffer from much internecine violence has to do with the naturalization of the conquest state throughout the society, including the celebration of banditry. This has long term demographic effects. When you create an environment that rewards violent, savage and criminal men, they have more kids. Whatever in them that compels them to be so animalistic is then propagated. Three hundred years later, you have a society. If you were a little smarter, you'd be able to differentiate a description of social selection from schizophrenia.
It's a similar story to the Bantu expansions. Subsaharan African Neolithic societal development was halted by their rapid expansion, which entrenched sociodemographic patterns of banditry, clan-ism, machismo individualist anarchism, etc. This stalled any capacity for self-reproducing, civilizing forces. It's a place of "big men", cowboys of an irregulable open territory that rule with incoherent violence.
Buzzwords buzzwords buzzwords
Truth be told unwritten Russian contract with society is: u don't mess with politics, I guarantee your "prosperity " N
And security. Mobilizing Moscowites and them successively getting raped by tchetschen barrier troops rewrites everything in russiA
>words I don't know are buzzwords
>words you make up based on common principles are buzzwords because I can't parse them
lol
Thanks for conceding
The tragic ESL.
Because Russia isn’t in a state where it would need a bunch of chinese equipment
As it stands, russia is going to win
You're a homosexual. Russia needs a lot of help, they're failing. Eventually someone's going to step in to stop total collapse, if it ever begins to truly loom. China salivates for a piece of the Eastern territories. They also don't want a worse North Korea on their Northern flank. The US doesn't want any kind of instability that leaves China. Little m- multipolarity, where there are multiple second rate powers that challenge a potential Chinese ascendancy are a chief American policy goal.
>There could be no systematic rule or complete centralization and establishment of rules-based order. In this way they have very much in common with Latin America.
It's funny you mention that. Was reading a book published in the 1980s about authoritarian juntas in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay (as one does) and it was striking how similar the descriptions were to what people say about Russia now. The author made a point that "fascism" wouldn't be accurate a description for them -- they were right-wing military juntas who threw leftists out of helicopters but those earlier regimes in Europe were highly ideological and believed in mass mobilization of the population, while these Latin American juntas rested on apathy. In Argentina, the generals and their boosters in the newspapers also became enthralled by "geopolitics," developed an irrational fixation with the Falklands, and then rationalized their desire for it with various theories about how it could be used as a base to threaten Argentina, and how it would be great to build a big navy to dominate the South Atlantic (possibly in an alliance with South Africa!) for... reasons. Then we see how that ended.
>Unless ukraine can
-restore 1991 borders
-destablize, occupy, then balkanize Russia
-arrest Putin, try, then execute him @ the hague
-distribute the assets of the former Russian federation as reparations across EU
-then collectively punish the Russian people for voting for Putin
it will be a defeat
there is no other condition than what I have typed above that ukraine will ever accept,
>THESE ARE NON.NEGOTIABLE.TERMS
non *clap* NEGOTIABLE *clap*
I mean that would be cool but the truth is most of them would just be happy with the Russians getting the frick out of their country.
... and never coming back. For that you need NATO. For that you need a peace treaty that won't block you from joining NATO. no chance to get that while Putin is alive.
not even factoring in less experienced tank crews. accelerate TZD
According to estimates by multiple western observers, Russia can sustain current loss levels for additional 2-3 years. They are not going to slow down, because at this time their gamble is paying off. The US has effectively stopped financing additional aid roughly 6 months ago and the odds of the prospective president to resume throwing money at the problem are rather slim. The Europeans are not going to finance the operation alone which will inevitably lead to a forced peace deal. There have already been articles in Foreign Relations calling for unconditional peace talks while Nuland resigned. Shit looks grim.
>inb4 VATNIK REEE
No amount of name calling and shit flinging is going to change reality. The Russians are all in and it doesn’t look like the west is willing to answer in kind. Ukraine is running out of men and material at a rate that makes victory in the sense of retaking the occupied territories highly unlikely and freezing of the conflict/forced negotiations almost inevitable.
>The Europeans are not going to finance the operation alone
I mean the French are calling for troop deployments and the UK recently stated that it will not give up support, but if you want to engage in delusional fantasy go ahead.
Talk is cheap.
So you're completely detached from reality. Got it.
Provide numbers.
I'm not going to get into a sophisticated discussion with someone who seriously thinks the Europeans are just going to abandon Ukraine. You are delusional.
Europeans will abandon Ukraine the INSTANT it becomes politically expedient— ie, when the U.S. stops pushing. Otherwise you’ll need to explain why Europe COMPLETELY abandoned — in fact never lifted a finger except for maybe the UK — in 2014.
>The literal reverse is happening in reality
I also like living in alternate worlds. Two more weeks and the support will be gone.
Name one European nation that did anything substantial for Ukraine in 2014. Go on I’ll wait.
I'm not talking about 2014 but go off sister.
Look. You’re not “next", nobody is invading your Eastern European hovels, and if you believe that’s not the case then WHY aren’t YOUR countries doing something about it instead of coping with all your might over the unity of Europe and the U.S. stopping it? Does coping in a hugbox on /k/ change anything?
>Eastern European hovel
I'm a western European lmao, and the easties have been pulling their weight. Look at Czechia. They enabled countless transfers to the west, the balts and the Slavic nations (including Poland) have been the hardest European supporters of Ukraine for their GDP. You are severely moronic.
>nobody is invading your Eastern European hovels
Yeah, and they'd like to keep it that way you dumb Black person. Breaking Russia's military in Ukraine is a clear opportunity to do that.
>me omw to donate towards TZD and vote in a pro-russian slaughter candidate (you can only seethe impotently while I do so)
Every Eastern European country is sending all they can to help with the TZD. Even Kosovo, which is one of the poorest countries in the region, is sending men to train Ukrainian soldiers and even some equipment, from what I read. So no, Europe is not stopping the support to Ukraine.
Even Servia...
I'm eastern european (has guns, you're no guns btw), there were convoys in my city carrying abrams and bradley towards ukraine two weeks ago, mad?
brown
name one substantial thing you have done with your life since 2014
>we're just memoryholing the sanctions that tanked an entire decade's worth of russian military investments
>europe didn't do anything 2014 and shouldnt do anything now
Well, butthole, see in picrel where that led us. Either-way, we are learning that lesson now. russia is a pariah state and is lucky if hamas pays it a visit. russia is now a serfdom of china. the west will continue to grow with Ukraine
Nice gotcha. Too bad it's moronic, because 2024 is not 2014, and all it proves is that you're moronic and your opinion is worse than useless.
>gets called out on his moroniation
>YOU'RE EASTERN EUROPEAN!
Pathetic. have a nice day this instant, vatBlack person. It will be a more merciful end than getting mobilized and cubed by western weapons. Europe will continue to provide aid until every single last one of you vermin has been exterminated. Deal with it.
Okay trash, Russia is estimated to spend $140b in military this year. You’re up! Your country’s contribution to Ukraine’s defense is…?
Ukraine got NLAWs which were critical in defending the country during the first few days of the blayatzkrieg.
Javelins as well.
>The Europeans are not going to finance the operation alone which will inevitably lead to a forced peace deal
Except for the fact that European aid has sharply increased in the past few months, not to mention Ukraine increasingly developing/expanding their own domestic weapons production.
>t European aid has sharply increased in the past few month
Except it hasn't. What increase is the "pledged" (read - paper) aid, not actually delivered.
>According to estimates by multiple western observers
you and I have very different opinion of what constitutes "western observers"
please, share some numbers and calculations though. i have done my part in this thread
These are mostly men bribing their doctors to write that they have bone spurs or whatever to hedge against being mobilized.
>mostly men bribing their doctors to write that they have bone spurs or whatever to hedge against being mobilized
you may be right, and if you are, what would that say about the fighting spirit of russians right now
>Conclusions
>The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU. However, if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025. If Russia lacks the prospect of gains in 2025, given its inability to improve force quality for offensive operations, then it follows that it will struggle to force Kyiv to capitulate by 2026. Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power, while Russian industry could be disrupted sufficiently by that point, making Russia's prospects decline over time. The latter would require Ukraine's partners to demonstrate a semblance of competence in their measures aimed at countering Russian defence mobilisation, which remains eminently possible in spite of their performance to date.
tldr: if west continues increasing its support ukraine will win
>what would that say about the fighting spirit of russians right now
Bribes are done mostly by people that can afford it - educated urban metrosexuals, that aren't even the tertiary manpower pool for Russians at the moment.
I'm more concerned about Ukrainian situation where the draft officers have been collectively sacked, and their current big mobilization law is stuck in rada limbo for 4+ months with close to 7k amendments (for example one of them - making draft exceptions for camel breeders... like what the frick?!). Meanwhile, brigade leaders are going off social media, threatening to send their own people to grab fresh meat off the streets.
>I'm more concerned about Ukrainian situation where NO NON-RESERVISTS HAVE HAD TO BE DRAFTED YET and the issue of actually mobilising more people is considered so non-threatening as to be politically contentious - in itself proof that the situation is far from threatening.
FTFY. And daily reminder that anyone going on about Ukraine's manpower situation being a serious problem is either an utterly ignorant fool shooting off his mouth or a vatBlack person shill. There is no "both" option because the latter automatically includes the former.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
Read
>Russian sources
Kek. From the biggest liars in the world? Lol, imao even
rusi is br*tish
You are a fool
Anon, you're posting a Twitter screenshot. That's not a Western military observer.
Anon, you can see the source at the bottom of the twitter screenshot. Its from the russian pension and social fund
>According to estimates by multiple western observers,
didn't the same ~~*observers*~~ estimated several times that Russia was going to run out of things by the ~~*some date in the distant past*~~?
No, those were Putin's friends
As it is said in Russia "Don't have a hundred roubles but have a hundred friends".
>The Russians are all in
So is Ukraine and most EU countries (specially in the east) no matter how much Russia bets on american traitors doing their bidding.
Poland alone could take Moscow right now if nukes weren't involved.
This is all because stingy bureoucrats not wanting to foot the bill, not because of lack of capability.
>The Europeans are not going to finance the operation alone
They are though and they easily can. When we're talking about the EU increasing funding for Ukraine we're still talking about a fraction of a percentage of total EU GDP.
Kind of ridicolous that people think the second highest GDP in the world (first for PPP) can't finance a war.
These past few years have just shown me people are even dumber than I thought. There are people who think sending the Ukrainians 30+ year old surplus will ruin the US military's ability to fight.
pic related for you vatnoid
serbia sent aid to ukraine? based hilarious if true
not confirmed as aid but lots of servian shells, weapons etc have been spotted somehow in Ukrainian hands. perhaps proxied but they know.
>The US has effectively stopped financing additional aid roughly 6 months ago
If you ignore the couple dozen billion it has provided in those 6 months, sure.
>and the odds of the prospective president to resume throwing money at the problem are rather slim
More like all but guaranteed.
>The Europeans are not going to finance the operation alone
All actual avaiable data suggests otherwise.
>which will inevitably lead to a forced peace deal
Except for the part where Russia already lacks the strength to force anything, and Ukraine ahs no intention of any peace deal regardless of western aid.
>muh Foreign Relations opinion articles
LMAO.
>No amount of name calling and shit flinging is going to change reality.
Yes, no amount of you trying to call /k/ names and pre-emptively REEEE over getting claled out on your propaganda cope is going to change the reality of Russias hopeless strategic situation.
>The Russians are all in
And losing.
>Ukraine is running out of men and material at a considerably slower rate than Russia, both in per capita and absolute terms, meaning victory for them in the sense of retaking all their territories is all but guaranteed at this current rate and any scenario of a frozen conflict or forced negotiations nothing nbut uttelry moronic zigger cope.
FTFY.
Tl;dr: This is gigacopium even by your sad standards, Illinois vatBlack person. And yes, your posting style and diction remain utterly obvious to anyone familiar with this board. Kys, moron.
>multiple western observers
xD
>Russia can sustain current loss levels for additional 2-3 years
Ok.
>at this time their gamble is paying off
I don't know man, having 2-3 years until your military strength is completely eroded doesn't sound like a gamble that's paying off.
>ukraine got smaller
Reminder that the only reason Russia conquered Kherson and the land bridge to Crimea was because of traitors inside the Ukrainian goverment just like in 2014. If the TDF in the south had being ready as they should, they never would have advanced outside the peninsula, and we would have seen the same scenes of fricked up armour columns we saw around Kyiv.
Bunch of delusional idiots
>wish in one hand, shit in the other
meanwhile you and the rest of Russia are busy eating an entire oxcart full of shit while pretending it's chocolate mousse
Poojeets back them for a reason.
About that... The sirs are getting cold feet.
Are the poos now unable to buy oil from Russians due to the strikes and pretending "WE ARE COMPLYING WITH SANCTION SAR, WE ARE GOOD SARS"? That's so downright Indian of them.
Aren't the strikes on Russian refineries though? If anything that just means they have more crude to export.
More crude to export = lower price of crude overall = sanction price cap kicking in
Shouldn't Russia sell MORE crude though for every bit of refining capacity they loose?
Attaching a beautiful recent image of a russian refinery in Samara that is on fire to go along with your article
When the frick was this?
3 days ago
Wait a minute... You made this EXACT post a couple days ago. Everyone I think we're arguing with a bot.
Test
I notice you didn't say which way the line was advancing lmao
This is the same “China will collapse any day now” cope but instead with Russian military readiness. Just admit we need to step our game up as opposed to letting our egos get in the way and just keep shoulder patting for being the best. We’re getting these numbers from oinkranians which last I checked were somehow even more corrupt than Russians
>Hm you make a go-
>Oinkranians
>More corrupt than Russians
Jesus Christ step up your game if you're trying to pretend to not be a vatnik.
They're a lot closer than they were on April 1st, 2022.
On the other hand I noticed Russians using fab glide bombs as artillery probably as a result of total artillery death.
I figured they stopped after losing 12 planes in 10 days but my father just rambled that Ukrainians get still pounded by glide fans.
Is that true? Glide fabs still being used frequently?
Yes. It's a standard tactic for them now.
you guys have been saying this shit since month 2 of the war
Look let’s just be real. Europe can’t, literally can’t, defend Ukraine. They’re too poor. Spending so little on defense isn’t because they’re abusing the U.S. defense treaties / guarantees, but because they don’t have the money. Europe is running an enormous civil service economy financed by debt spending, and they’re basically tapped out. The U.S. is the only country in the world capable printing money indefinitely (not really but far greater than anywhere else), so Europe MUST live within tolerable debt levels. Russia can finance a massive military budget via cash extracted from the ground (oil), Europe doesn’t have this cash-mining capability.
So I’m sure they’d LIKE to defend Ukraine but the reality is that they can’t AFFORD it. The money poured into it MUST come out from something else, and none of the vast army of civil servants will accept a pay cut or reduction in benefits. Politicians will FIGHT until the death to protect immigrant community funding. Even "just" 60b combined amongst members is like pulling teeth. Meanwhile Russia’s estimated spending for 2024 is estimated to be over 7% of their GDP. It’s a money issue, plain and simple.
>It’s a money issue, plain and simple.
yes. and that's exactly why russia has no chance of winning this war.
When will they stop winning and begin showing signs of defeat?
as soon as you're able to accept reality.
Resource extraction is not an infinite money cheat code
some people have been saying this for almost two years now. inherited depots of soviet rust buckets are large but will not last forever
now we got golf cart attacks
A golf cart is a gold cart.
You should better be concerned about your tanks, mutt.
At least Russia can make its own from scratch.
>t. country that begs the chinese for golf carts
Frick tanks you should be building aircraft and ISR satellites instead. Russia could've won this war in a month if they had a proper reconnaissance network, airpower, and a quick killchain.