Hypothetically Iran closes the straights of Hormuz to commercial oil traffic, with mines, drones, fast boats and anti-ship missiles.
How would the the United States and the Gulf nations re-open the straights and get oil flowing again? How long would it take?
Assume that Iran has also gone to war with the Saudi led alliance and has performed extensive drone and cruise missile and ballistic missile attacks against Gulf state wells/refineries, military installations and general infrastructure (IE desalination plants, power plants ect).
Look up the U.S. fifth fleet. Iran would cease to have a navy if they tried.
None of this addresses Iran's missile and drone stockpiles, hopefully they could use GLONASS &/or Beidou
They had anti ship missiles in Operation Praying Mantis too. They were French missiles. Not sure why you think they’re able to defeat the US Navy and Airforce? Maybe you live in the third world?
>missiles and drone bases are invulnerable and undetectable and totally would not eat any cruise missiles
i don't know why you keep trying to come back to this as some sort of silver bullet. blocking the strait isn't a US and Saudi problem, it's a world problem and it's dumb as shit to think only those two countries would give a frick and do something about it
in some ways yes. but in reality its a bigger problem for the usa than anyone else. which makes it the usa's problem. other nations will survive maybe even flourish if this happens. USA will devolve into chaos especially the fragile city centers with the commoners
What a bizarre fantasy land you live in
Not even Russia uses glonass
And what makes you think China would back some muslims getting uppity and threatening their petrol deliveries?
U.s. has B-2s, B-1s, missiles launched from subs, missile cruisers, etc. Also, the Israelis consistently fly into Iranian airspace with their F-35s. How long do you think those sites would last? They'd be destroyed first and probably in hours. The U.S. is not the Russians. Look at what happened to Iraqs conventional military.
Operation Praying Mantis 2.0 with zee gloves off.
In the previous operation we sunk their navy in 24 hours.
The situation now is very different to praying mantis.
The Iranian navy is still a joke obviously, but they would still be able to mine the straights before anyone could stop them, even if it would effectively be a suicide mission.
Iran also has vastly more shore based deterrent compared to the 1980s, hundreds of AShM (potentially more than a thousand), rudimentary anti-ship balistic missiles, a large fleet of drone aircraft that reconnoitre and attack shipping.
Bear in mind that the straights themselves are small enough that civilan vessels would be at risk from tube artillery and MLRS systems.
The millennium challenge was a meme obviously, but a bluewater US fleet still would not be able to simply barrel into the Persian gulf in the first weeks of the war, the risk would be far to great.
They would have to peel back Iranian A2AD first from outside, which would take considerable time, especially since the Iranian air defenses are no push-over. Obviously a US force of F-35s, growlers, RQ-170/80 etc, along with the US's incredible satellite ELINT and recon would be able to dismantle Iranian air defenses, but again that would take time.
You are probably looking at months before tankers are safe to go back into the Persian gulf for oil and gas, combine this with an already existing energy crisis, for example with Russia at the moment and the potential energy market shock could be devastating.
They would probably bomb the shit out of Saudi Arabia while they were at it, especially the desalination facilities.
>straights
:facepalm:
Straights straights straights straights
Engage in the discussion.
The Iran nuclear deal is going to fall through and the US is saying that they are open to using to using Military force to prevent Iran from getting a bomb.
Meanwhile Iran has an unprecedented position of strength to upend the global energy system, which is already hanging by a thread.
Doing so would likely bring Europe into a total crisis.
There is a very real chance of world war three kicking off because of this.
China might also use this as an opportunity to invade Taiwan, since they would be under effective energy blockade regardless and the the US would be effectively spread over three fronts.
We’d see North Korea pulling some shit too.
And Venezuela attacking Colombia for toilet paper.
>months
Modern USN mine countermeasures squadrons work a hell of a lot faster than that. Breakthrough would be done within 48 hours, we already have the assets sitting in the Persian Gulf training for this scenario 24/7.
By week three, the twisted wreckage of the IRGCN sitting at the bottom of the Gulf would unironically be a bigger hazard to navigation than any remaining mines.
If this happens and it takes months to destroy the Iranian navy and A2AD, the US should impose a ban on Iran from building new military ships, drones, and a2ad. Then keep bombing any factory or dockyard that appears to be building them for the next hundred years.
I think we would face a civil war in the USA if gas skyrocketed. The cities are full of savages, due to covid allowing massive white flight. Also the police do not want to be Biden-China's wipping boy so they let the savages create a lot of crime.
Go jerk off elsewhere chink/vatnik
Nuclear landscaping. We make the straight of hormuz, the sea of hormuz. Not our fault if Iran didn't build their cities on stilts.
>Outside Iran
They would get destroyed
See operation praying mantis
>Inside Iran
Iran would manage to hold a guerilla or push back the americans
>straights
Dumbass.
Tactical nuking
next question
>How would the the United States and the Gulf nations re-open the straights
Operation Praying Mantis II
Why not just stop sucking off israel?
If the US doesn't help Israel and the Saudis against Iran, the Saudis will leave the US oil cartel and Israel will align with China.
>and Israel will align with China.
So what?
How would boomers react to a US defeat? I'm thinking they'll take it out on Brandon and transsexuals in the military.
Persia is an inferior culture
Compared to what?
Thanks for this post. LGBT = Mental illness of America
Yeah, but they have pretty women.
They won't need to worry, because Iran would get squashed in a confrontation with the US and the Gulf states, in the air or sea. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if the Israelis were allowed to join in on the fun.
There is no insurgency. There's the Iranian navy and air defense getting plastered, followed by the nuking of their commodity extraction. The entire Iranian economy is inside the Gulf or on its coasts, and quite vulnerable.
It looks like the perfect place for Russia and China to get their payback on the US by supplying Iran and financing a never-ending insurgency.
The Straights of Hormuz is like the prison scene in Watchmen. You're locked in here with USA. Shit pops off, prices go up, it's brutal but USA survives. Everyone in East Asia runs out of oil and LNG immediately. Not simply high prices - unavailability of product once national reserves are depleted.
>Iran pulls some shit
>Hormuz Closed
>China physically starved of hydrocarbons, along with the rest of East Asia
Iran won't do shit, China won't allow it. It would, in the end, benefit USA to such a degree that USA may even instigate the conflict if it wasn't for Japan + Worst Korea.
Honestly, in such an occasion it's not unreasonable to think that China would coordinate with western powers in a 'Coalition of the Willing' to take on Iran, and more importantly show the world the power of their navy.
Would frick over Europe as well though.
Normally US would be fine with fricking with Europe (big part of why Ukraine happened), but they would risk total chaos and NATO breakdown if European gas prices doubled again.
Considering the Oil and gas fields in eastern Ukraine this may actually be a long term plan.
Ween europe off Russian energy before truly fricking shit up.
Hence Putin just invaded this year; the writing was on the wall when Zelensky and Biden started awarding drilling contracts.
They had Exocets, and not their own indigenous stockpiles.
> Not sure why you think they’re able to defeat the US Navy and Airforce?
Well hopefully they'll be linked to GLONASS or Beidou, or maybe even just use GPS like Russia's doing in Ukraine.
>blocking the straits
Most of Iran's munitions are pointed at US/coalition ships and bases
>GLONASS or Beidou, or maybe even just use GPS like Russia's doing in Ukraine.
The fact Russia uses GPS should tell you about GLONASS. The Ilranian airforce was supposed to be done in 3 days. The fact that Ukraine still has an airforce that's carried out over 1700 attacks should tell you that no, Iran would not benefit from GPS.
It's Iran against the world in that case. Good luck
>But the missiles!
Lmao
NATO forces would make an air and land attack through Turkey and Iraq, blasting off the Iranian military. Almost the entire population of Iran lives in the far west of the country, the east is just mountains and desert. As soon as Tehran is captured Iran falls, there will be islamic guerrillas in the east but if America learned anything from Afghanistan (a huge if, to be fair) they won't waste their time pursuing them into the hills.
Closing the Gulf would put Iran at odds with basically the whole world, so they would never do it though. But if they did, it would be the end of Iran as we know it today in 3 months tops.
I seriously want Iran or Ansarallah to do a drone strike on KSA or UAE oil or gas facilities right now.
That would really bring the world back to reality and behaving. The last ones got the Saudis and Emiratis immediately begging for a ceasefire in Yemen. There's so much dumb shit going on because US foreign-policy has long been hijacked by lobbyists and special-interest. The real threat is China first and foremost.
The lobbyists and crooked lawmakers dictating US actions against Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Turkey are sending the US on the path to its own demise. The security of Israel and the ego of Greeks and Cuban exiles is not the same as the national security of the US.
I agree buddy. You and I are friends. I like how you think.
I share your assessment of the Chinese, but I don't think an Iranian strike on Saudi oil assests would accomplish anything other than shifting our main focus onto the Iranian for at least the next half decade. If not longer, and despite what ever problems the Chinese are currently having, I don't like them having even more time to expand than they've already been given.
>How would the the United States and the Gulf nations re-open the straights and get oil flowing again? How long would it take?
Complete annihilation of the Iranian fleet, missile launching sites and air force. This might also entail significant destruction of ports. Based on the equipment they have compared to what the U.S. alone has nevermind the Arabs and Europeans, maybe the Iranians would last a few weeks. The bigger issue is once they were conventionally blown out they and their proxy forces in other countries like hezbollah would probably commit acts of terrorism.
>Iran closes Hormuz because they've put lead in the water (still better than the HIV in Russia's)
>Israeli, American and Sunni military HQs start playing hardbass
>America and Israel collectively obliterate the Iranian air force and navy while the Gulf countries shell the frick out of the coast and ensure American military supremacy in the gulf
>Israel fricks up anything related to the nuclear program while America bombs everything to do with the Revolutionary Guards
>Mullahs say to prepare for the American invasion
>It never comes because the Americans know that without their economy, without widespread civilian deaths, the unpopular leadership is utterly fricked
>Iran either sues for a humiliating peace that removes them from the geopolitical map (no more funding for Assad, the Houthis, Hezbollah etc.) or Khameini gets the same treatment Gaddafi did
>Entire global economy shrecked, but the West hurt the least - Asia hit the worst given their dependence
>Entire Shiite bloc across the Middle East implodes
>Israel and Saudis officially make peace, most of the Middle East and Muslim world follow
>They unite to face their new collective enemy, Turkey
Honestly I don't think there's serious thought in America about a full land invasion of Iran - if you starve the economy by cutting off all oil and pulverise the infrastructure by bombing, the Mullahs don't really have a support base to fall back on.
>Israel starts a war by attacking a NATO country
Jesus fricking Christ yes
>My dad was a sailor in the British merchant navy
>Went to the Gulf in the 80s during the Iran-Iraq war
>The Iranians tried to scram off British ships trying to get through
>My Dad and everyone on the ship would grab the firehoses and hose the shit out of the carpet-shaggers whenever they tried to get close to the boat
Warms my heart to think about
Why would Iran do such a thing?
Everything they do is out of self defense or preservation.
>Wanting to frick with the richest nation in the region.
My guy you don't seem to know how foreign policy works.