every day HATO and globohomosexual edge closer to starvation and destruction. The powerful russian bull army is overpowering the weak, trembling hohol nazis. The massive allied artillery continues to pound the hato pigs into submission. The Russian army will soon come to an explosive victory
Hilarious that Vatniks thought Hohols would greet them with open arms as brothers when actually Hohols have zero problem selling their own children for CP.
In what world did Russians think people who prefer money over their children wouldn't prefer money over their brothers ?
>when actually Hohols have zero problem selling their own children for CP.
This is hilarious coming from a Russian. everything a Russian barks is projection.
Currently Russians had some limited, but very real and important successes in the Donbas.
But does that translate into winning the war? I don't think so.
Time is playing in the Ukrainian favour, and Russians need significant battlefield breakthrough. Slowly chipping at Ukrainian territory at exorbitant costs just is not sustainable for them - especially for as long as they refuse to mobilize and turn to wartime economy.
Russia is maintaining a stalemate on the last two fronts it has left at the cost of 2 logistics facilities per day. This is as far as the objective truth goes, everything beyond that is up to interpretation
I personally think those losses are sustainable for maybe a month tops
So I'd say that we should see a big breakthrough this summer
Nope.
Neither side is able to conduct a large-scale offensive at the moment, and chances are they will not be anytime soon.
Russians certainly won't unless they mobilize their entire economy and reserves - and even then it would be extremely doubtful they'd be able to secure decisive breakthrough that would knock Ukraine out.
Ukraine will not be able to push through the Russian positions either unless they secure absolutely massive and systematic western aid in the form of hundreds or thousands pieces of equipment instead of couple dozen of disparate units of each. That being said Ukraine absolutely is in a much better position than Russia - They have the manpower, they have the motivation, and unlike Russia they have the path forward (The potential for massive ramp up of western military aid; Russians have no such thing - their military industrial capacity is dead and China is not going to help them in the way they'd need)
However if I absolutely had to guess how this is all going to end - We will see complete stalemate in the coming weeks followed by transformation of the "hot" war into post-2014 Donbas style of low-intensity fighting. However since this will be much more costly for both sides than the War in Donbas was, we will see a negotiated resolution by the end of the year. Most likely return to the pre-24th Feb borders with the exception of LPR retaining entirety of Lugansk oblast and DPR retaining Mariupol. At the moment this might sound unacceptable to the Ukrainians, but I do believe that they will be willing to swallow it in exchange for Kherson and Zaporozhie returning under their control.
Based, when do we troony up vatnigs?
Can't wait to see all of them seethe when they become degenerate like the rest of the world.
Well you're already late anon. Russia is already more degenerate than the west.
Look up Russia's abortion, divorce, HIV, suicide or drug abuse rates. And this is of course without even going into the state-mandated ethnic cleansing through importing millions of central asian immigrants every year.
>Most likely return to the pre-24th Feb borders with the exception of LPR retaining entirety of Lugansk oblast and DPR retaining Mariupol.
This is see as a realistic prediction. As for the capability to conduct large offensive, I don't think Ukraine used all those tanks that were given to them by former WP countries. I believe they are not on the frontline and Ukies are simply ammasing them for some big push.
I don't think Ukraine has any intention of letting Russia have those territories. They'll grind the Russians down if they have to. They've lost too much to stop, and they know the Russians are getting weaker.
> I don't think Ukraine used all those tanks that were given to them by former WP countries. I believe they are not on the frontline and Ukies are simply ammasing them for some big push.
1. It was <200 tanks in total. Not a game-changing amount by any stretch of the imagination, its certainly not enough to magically give ukrainians the ability to launch massive counter-offensive (just like Russians pressing reservist-staffed T-62s into service wont magically lead to them breaking through the Ukrainian positions)
2. They are confirmed to already be deployed in the Kherson oblast. Iirc some of the Czech T-72s were destroyed already (Which is to be expected however, its a war)
https://i.imgur.com/ock39t0.png
Over 30 warehouses were destroyed in the past week by HIMARS. Russian forces have run out of ammo on most contact lines and are in retreat around Kherson
[...]
cope vatBlack person
>reddit picture >exagerrating the Ukrainian successes
is this what passes for psyop on /misc/ lmao
>They are confirmed to already be deployed in the Kherson oblast.
I haven't heard about that. And honestly 200 tanks poured in one direction should be capable of breakthrough.
I don't think Russia used all those T-80 and T-72 tanks that were in storage. I believe they are not on the frontline and the Russians are simply amassing them for some big push.
>Look up Russia's
Dont forget Covid.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/12/30/russias-excess-death-toll-hits-930k-a75964
They are now number 2nd after USA.
Indeed. 3rd is Brasil which has nearly 2 times bigger population.
This is the reason why China locked down Shanghai for two months straight, and probably will do it again in a few weeks.
They CAN NOT allow covid to spread, they will have millions of deaths.
They do not have the hospital infrastructure to support the cases they'd generate with such a huge population, and their vaccines were only ever ~50-60% effective with the OG variant, with delta and omicron it drops off from a questionable 30% to nill.
You're ignoring the fact that russians are loosing ammunition at an unacceptable rate. While it's true that Ukraine probably can't afford a massive push, Russia soon won't be able to bring supplies to the front and will have to back off to yet undestroyed depos
>russians are loosing ammunition at an unacceptable rate
define "unacceptable", troony. you have absolutely no idea how little ammunition is actually destroyed when one of those depots gets hit. if all - or even a sizeable fraction - of the shells were destroyed in the strike it would look like an atomic bomb going off. instead what we see is a simple fire - probably from the fuel in the lorries and the ammunition boxes burning - with the occasional bang as a shell goes off. makes lots of smoke and looks impressive, but is only slightly more impactful than a jeering raspberry.
Considering the pathetic quality of Russian ammo? It's very likely substandard and even more prone to blowing up quite easily. You think a corrupt and poor nation-state competently maintains its own weapons' stockpiles? A sizeable number of their ammo consists of fricking duds.
yes. british mod says that russia has over a half million men in bases near the border getting ready for their big summer offensive. this "offensive pause" that gets the /k/opers here jerking off to HIMARS is nothing more than supplies being diverted from the recently-finished offensives into the stores for the upcoming decisive blow.
500k men? Sure, sure. That seems absolutely plausible. They strated this war with 200k and even then they had troubles with supply but now they'll use twice as much.
russia conscripted 350k men (up from 250k) in April as part of their standard quarterly conscription, and issued a stop-loss on the men normally cycling out of their 2-year term of service. Putin wasn't kidding when he said they hadn't yet gotten serious, they've got enough stuff in storage to fight WW2 thrice over again, and have spent the months since march moving a world war's worth of supplies into striking distance of Ukraine. Ukraine - and the rest of NATO - has been playing patacake while Russia is playing to win. permanently. this world war will be the long awaited death of the west that the rest of the world has long desired.
>they have enough in storage to fight WW3 thrice over
Interesting topic of discussion! I fill a logistics officer billet for the US Army and have looked a bit into Russian army stores, logistics, and combat regeneration.
1. Stores: Russian army ammunition storage is amateur at best, and self-destructive at worst. Many of their artillery/tank shells have been sitting in the open, exposed to the elements, since the 1980's. Their fuses have been worn down by the freeze/thaw cycle, and Russia simply is not replacing ammunition at the rate that they are expending it. This is going to lead to their field artillery losing effectiveness rapidly as they are going to run out of serviceable ammo.
2. Logistics
Russian Army logistics are also not very good, as you can see from the initial push from Kiev. Not only is there an incredible amount of corruption from the Kremlin down to the individual level, but the inherent premise of Russian logistics has failed, with a lack of simple things like palletization significantly hindering the Russians ability to resupply their forces, not to mention 0 mechanized resupply capabilities, which would improve movement over the shattered Ukrainian road system. Back tracking to corruption, particularly at the company and below echelons, it is common for soldiers to sell their fuel and to strip copper wirings from their armored vehicles to make a quick buck. I think we'll soon find that Russia's vast fleet of Cold War armored vehicles will not be as helpful as vatnik's think.
1/2
2 years ago
Anonymous
russia conscripted 350k men (up from 250k) in April as part of their standard quarterly conscription, and issued a stop-loss on the men normally cycling out of their 2-year term of service. Putin wasn't kidding when he said they hadn't yet gotten serious, they've got enough stuff in storage to fight WW2 thrice over again, and have spent the months since march moving a world war's worth of supplies into striking distance of Ukraine. Ukraine - and the rest of NATO - has been playing patacake while Russia is playing to win. permanently. this world war will be the long awaited death of the west that the rest of the world has long desired.
3. Combat Regeneration
The Russian army has suffered around 30,000 KIA, with presumably 10's of thousands more wounded that is already overstressing Russia's medical capabilities. These 30,000 KIA are a mix of Russia's professional soldiers (VDV, contract soldiers in BTG's) and conscripted militiamen from LPR and DPR. These professional soldiers have effectively spent the last 4 months in a slow bloody slog that has been mostly disappointing, if not disastrous.
Should these 600,000 soldiers be flung into Ukraine, they shall be poorly trained, poorly equipped, have low morale, poorly led, against a well equipped, experienced, and determined foe.
As long as NATO (read: US) keeps supplying Ukraine, this war will be a very long and bloody conflict for Russia.
>Russia has 1.8 times the number of its total pre-conflict Ground Forces personnel waiting to strike despite not carrying out a full mobilization of reserves and conscripts
People tend to forget that Russia started the invasion by comitting most of their ground forces + militias + HOMOs + a large number of conscripts (that legally should not have been there) and continued by pulling it forces from Georgia, Armenia, Africa and most of its garrisons.
I suspect they've already forgotten about Russia sending 17y old cadets and Airforce ground crews to the front as well.
>HOMOs
Why did you repeat yourself? We know all the Russian troops are gay, we've had vatniks in here unironically defending the institutionalized sodomy.
2 years ago
Anonymous
OMOH, it's russian police
2 years ago
Anonymous
Yes, we know the Russian police are homos, they're Russians, they probably do the buttsex hazing too.
I'd say closer to winter or late spring for the tables to turn. Britain is training 12,000 Ukrainian troops to UK standards every 120 days. American lend lease money to Ukraine starts in September. The -American weapons to Ukraine have merely been stopgaps (about $7 billion worth)
Read up on the specifics of the bong training.
It's just a couple week basic training course for the completely fresh volunteers teaching them shit like how to handle a firearm.
It's just to free up the Ukrainian training capacities a bit.
>It's just a couple week basic training course for the completely fresh volunteers teaching them shit like how to handle a firearm.
Yeah. What part of "UK Standard" didn't you get?
Come on now, you know what I meant.
I am not saying its not technically false, just that its a bit misleading. The original post implied that the UK standard is something meaningfully superior to what they would get were they to be trained in Ukraine which is just not true and that they'd end up as some sort of SAS tier operatives, or that's what i got.
Matter of fact is that Ukrainian training standards post 2014 are not that different from NATO, so all this really does is free up ukrainian training capacities and increase the number of basic-trained privates that they can churn out for further training. Basically the difference this brings is in quantity, not quality - the "UK standards" is just a bit redundant.
Russia is set to execute some British POWS (not matter how much the Vatniks try to claim they're mercenaries, the dudes were in the Ukrainian military officially). That war training is going to massively ramp up when that happens.
Russia can say "we have no say on the Separatists", but we all know that's bullshit.
The British POWs are Ukrainians. The one they always show has an Ukrainian wife and is about 5 years in Ukraine. I think he even has an Ukrainian passport even had the Ukrainian military training. If they kill him, thats a war crime.
Over 30 warehouses were destroyed in the past week by HIMARS. Russian forces have run out of ammo on most contact lines and are in retreat around Kherson
Russia is maintaining a stalemate on the last two fronts it has left at the cost of 2 logistics facilities per day. This is as far as the objective truth goes, everything beyond that is up to interpretation
I personally think those losses are sustainable for maybe a month tops
>especially for as long as they refuse to mobilize and turn to wartime economy.
Do it homosexual. I wanna see all those vatnik shitposter faces when they actually get drafted
>very real and important
And pyrrhic. Every time they advance a few miles, they lose tens of thousands of personnel. It's kind of funny because they're subhuman.
Russia is maintaining a stalemate on the last two fronts it has left at the cost of 2 logistics facilities per day. This is as far as the objective truth goes, everything beyond that is up to interpretation
I personally think those losses are sustainable for maybe a month tops
Russia, kind of a slog but now that it's summer in the Northern hemisphere terrain isn't such a large setback. You can tell from the crickets chirping on the online propaganda machine.
it's been summer for two months and they've taken two towns. what kind of bizarre cope is it to say "summer will save us" when summer is halfway over and your best season and most favorable terrain have rendered disastrous losses for little gain
And they've secured the corridor, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Operational tempo isn't just for taking land in offensives. I don't think they're trying to dissolve Ukraine as a state.
You're kind of naive to take anything a government says at face value. Looks like they already secured their economic corridor to the sea, now they can let things kind of die down like how everybody forgot the 2014 offensive was still ongoing.
Putin himself said Ukrianian nation does not exist because they are just comfused Russians. Russian plan was to annex Donbass and "Novorossia" and let the rest of Ukraine to be governed by some puppet regime. What are you even trying to argue here?
2 years ago
Anonymous
I'm trying to say that it's going to be a stalemate with years of low-intensity conflict, but Russia will ultimately come out for the better with a warm water port. And politicians strongman posture and sabre rattle all the goddamn time. Even worse than taking a government statement at face value is an individual politician.
2 years ago
Anonymous
Russia is already in a far worse position than it was 4 months ago, there's no way it gets better.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
Especially when Kherson falls to Ukraine. It's the weakest link in Russia's armor. Then Russia will have to make a manpower choice.
2 years ago
Anonymous
two months ago ukrainian troops were 30km from Kherson.
today ukrainian troops are 30km from Kherson.
but sure, two more weeks amirite fellow hohols?
2 years ago
Anonymous
Yes, it is inevitable.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
So you're saying the Russians still haven't driven them off after 2 months, lol? You're supposed to be the 2nd strongest military in the world.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>world
*Ukraine
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
My point is, Russia doesn't have the strength to dislodge the Ukrainians from around Kherson.
2 years ago
Anonymous
why are vatniks trying to use the "two more weeks" against hohols when its the russians that have been going full "just two more weeks until kiev falls/ukrainian military disintegrates/odessa is captured/the donbas pocket is closed" since the start of the war
2 years ago
Anonymous
It can work both ways
2 years ago
Anonymous
They bombed that port to the ground, don't you remember? Everything valuable that was in Mariupol is gone.
Of their goal was to take this piece of land for the port they failed in the spectacular way.
2 years ago
Anonymous
remember when japan bombed midway and suddenly it was completely unusable for the rest of eternity?
lmao moron
2 years ago
Anonymous
To be fair, the US never set uo significant infrastructure at Midway Atoll, even after the Kido Butai's veteran assets suffered critical existence failure in the local area. Only a mere airstrip, a small complex to house airfield staff and crew, and logistical storage areas.
2 years ago
Anonymous
You are going to compare Midway, a tiny speck in the Pacific ocean vs rebuilding a city and it's port?
2 years ago
Anonymous
It will boost the economy and generate jobs. This idea that reconstruction is impossible is completely Russian, because they live in buildings that would have been condemned anywhere else.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
That and Ukrainians do not want to live in Russia-tier conditions. They want to be in something called actual civilization.
2 years ago
Anonymous
Broken window fallacy. All that reconstruction money to rebuild has to come from somewhere. How long will it take Russia to get a return on investment?
If the Russians had taken the city intact, they'd have stolen a lot of infrastructure for free. Now they're going to have to pay billions to rebuild
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
I question how long Russian occupiers will be willing to fight and die for fricking worthless (due to everything being destroyed) land that isn't even theirs. The only people who fight for worthless land are the people who lived there and have a vested interest in taking it back.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>occupiers
Liberators lad
And I wish they’d liberate us from globohomosexual too
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
Uh huh, which is why Russians raze everything to the ground.
2 years ago
Anonymous
they're liberating concrete from the shackles of being forced into the shape of buildings!
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
It all makes sense! The Russians were actually at war with building contractors!
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Liberators
Rapists and goat frickers. I can only imagine the level of obesity you're working with.
2 years ago
Anonymous
Adhom attack, has no counter argument.
Ok m8
2 years ago
Anonymous
Feel free to move to Russia if globohomosexual bothers you so much.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Broken window fallacy. All that reconstruction money to rebuild has to come from somewhere.
We're talking about a country, not your trailer park. They still have a functional economy and support from their neighbors and the U.S.
Stop using phrases you don't understand the meaning of.
2 years ago
Anonymous
We're talking about Mariupol, which is currently controlled by the Russians (hopefully not for long). I'm saying that Mariupol will not be economically productive for a long time and focusing on the jobs given to rebuilders instead of the broader picture is flawed. The same as someone who throws a stone through another person's window-- the broken window is profit for the windowmaker but no one else.
when they relented from kyiv it was the exact opposite - trying to claim russia never declared intent to dissolve the state despite their actions clearly showing the intent. you cannot escape your deeds by falling back on your words or vice versa, there is a clear intent in both. russia wanted ukraine and will never have it. cope and seethe.
2 years ago
Anonymous
This. It's like how attempted murder is still a thing even if the perpetrator failed to kill the victim.
>And they've secured the corridor
two weeks to dnipro right? you totally won't memoryhole this offensive just like the north, just like kharkiv, just like odesa and linking up with transisteria, right?
>February 24 - 27
Russia curbstomps Ukraine >February 27 - mid March
Ukraine holds out bravely >Mid March - June
Supercharged by NATO budget and Five Eyes intelligence, Ukraine pushes Russia back in a campaign that will cause Russia butthurt for as long as that country still exists in its current form >June to present
Stalemate
Just about agree.
Except >Russia curbstomps Ukraine
"Curbstomps" implies that Russians were able to overcome Ukrainian resistance. But the things were initially so chaotic there was not much organized actual fighting even going on in the first couple of days, certainly not in the context of seizing territory.
Also not sure I'd attribute the Ukrainian successes since March to "NATO budget".
Definitely intelligence, but it was first and foremost operational failures and systematic shortcomings on the part of the Russians rather than some newfound capacities on the Ukrainian side if you get what im saying.
You're ignoring the fact that russians are loosing ammunition at an unacceptable rate. While it's true that Ukraine probably can't afford a massive push, Russia soon won't be able to bring supplies to the front and will have to back off to yet undestroyed depos
And i never said otherwise anon. You are saying what im saying - Ukraine can't afford a massive push, and neither can Russia. But both sides will continue to be able to hold their lines.
>They are confirmed to already be deployed in the Kherson oblast.
I haven't heard about that. And honestly 200 tanks poured in one direction should be capable of breakthrough.
That's not how it works. Good chunk of the Polish or Czech T-72s were used to plug the holes in the frontlines or replace casualties. They were not really meant to be used to create operational reserves - That's what the (hopefully coming eventually) western equipment would be used for.
As for the tanks already being on the frontlines - Just google "Czech tanks mykolaiv" or something along those lines.
I did not reply to any of your other posts because thought that signifying a fricking namegay with a (you) is not something that i can swallow but jesus christ my man your posts read like you are fricking 12
you really need to go back, and im saying this as someone who agrees with most of the points you are unsuccessfully trying to make
Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics. Russia can pull the grandest strategy out of its fricking ass, but it means nothing without the supplies to support it.
>But both sides will continue to be able to hold their lines.
Not if Russians will loose all of their support infrastructure. Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't they maintaining the frontline only through constant artillery shelling? That's got to put a massive strain on the logistics
Also thank you for being a real human being one can talk to and not a gotcha moron vatnik
Correct. Russia is completely dependent on massed artillery spam to even crawl forward. Take that capacity from them, and it is over.
That’s very American thing to say. A war between neighbours isn’t won by logistics as logistics is in such case really simple. Russian failure in the first stage of war on the Kiev front isn’t as much as logistics failure as total failure of everything.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>as logistics is in such case really simple
and russians manage to fail at even that
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
Vehicles without fuel cannot move. Weapons without ammo cannot fire. Soldiers without food and water cannot survive.
THAT is reality.
The British POWs are Ukrainians. The one they always show has an Ukrainian wife and is about 5 years in Ukraine. I think he even has an Ukrainian passport even had the Ukrainian military training. If they kill him, thats a war crime.
And the British will howl for blood. They'll start training the Ukrainians to the highest standard they can muster.
@the namegay
Are you some sort of elaborate vatnik falseflag designed to make people supporting ukraine look like obnoxious redditor morons or just underage
I'm simply an unpaid propagandist for Ukraine who isn't even going to get a medal for his efforts when Ukraine pisses on Russia's grave.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
Post-script: and unfortunately for the Russian shills, I have the advantage of having found a very simple truth of the war.
The Russian logistical system was so weak already, it's very easy to cripple. And if that goes, it loses. No supplies, no war.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>That’s very American thing to say.
Yes, and that's why it's true. America and Russia, oddly enough, both LARP as the Romans. The difference is that America LARPs as Post-Marian Republic and Principate Rome with its terrifying logistical and engineering excellence, building roads and structures wherever they go, as well as a hatred of kings and an idealized view of the free soldier-farmer-citizen. Russia LARPs as the Byzantine rump state. Dripping in iconography, obsessed with the glorious past, suffering a permanent persecution complex, brutal out of cruelty rather than practicality, far more orientalist than it can admit, and mindlessly autocratic.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
America and Russia also have a sense of being white but NOT European. We both feel alienated from Europe, albeit we went in different directions.
America went optimistic, declaring ourselves better than Europe because we were "Shining City On Hill". Russia went nihilistic, declaring the fricking WORLD was no better than it because everyone was just as shitty as they were.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
It also manifests in a similar yet different perception of Ukraine.
To America, Ukraine is us declaring themselves free of a tyrannical oppressor and seeking to better themselves.
To Russia, Ukraine is a dangerous Slavic upstart that needs to be dragged back into Russian Hell. Why? Because only Russia is allowed to have a persecution complex. How dare Ukraine play bigger victim.
>Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics
how trite. just the sort of kindergarten-level thinking we've come to expect from you.
2 years ago
Anonymous
proven true in Ukraine tbh
2 years ago
Anonymous
post kherson, melitopol, mariupol, severodonetsk, and lyschansk.
2 years ago
Anonymous
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
Let's see......
Two cities packed with traitors taken early. Mariupol took months and killed the Russian Southern Offensive. And the last two were reduced to rubble.
So every time the Russians had to seriously fight for a real city, they lost a ton of manpower.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>severodonetsk, and lyschansk.
Is this the only actual military victory of Russia so far? Seems Ukraine is indeed winning.
2 years ago
Anonymous
Well, it is still better than your Marvel superhero logic where the only willpower is enough to surpass any challenge.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
A strategy without supplies is like a car without an engine. I know you're trying really hard to deny reality, but without supplies, your invasion collapses. And you know it.
What a shame your manpower is so stretched out. Leaves your rear areas so exposed.
2 years ago
Anonymous
I know you're trying really hard to push your fantasy that a few rockets have completely destroyed the russian logistics system. it's an attractive fantasy, because it's the only thing that gives the ukrainians a chance in hell of coming out of this, but unfortunately it is not supported by the evidence on the ground. the russians took severodonetsk and lyschansk two weeks after the ukrainians started targetting the russian depots around the popasna-kreminna pocket, and it had no affect whatsoever on the outcome.
2 years ago
Anonymous
Then that would be a logistical victory for Russia.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
Your supply lines aren't going to be too hard to cut. Your rear areas are pathetically defended.
2 years ago
Anonymous
big talk from a fake country that hasn't succeeded in cutting russian supply lines even once.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
Real enough to put a lot of Russian troops in their graves. You've lost more men in a few months than in years of fricking Afghanistan.
2 years ago
Anonymous
welcome to modern war kiddo
2 years ago
Anonymous
Modern war looks like pic related. Russia is a primitive failed state.
The expression is "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics." Strategy, the question of when and for what to go to war, is clearly above your level if you can't even correctly quote a decades old expression.
>But both sides will continue to be able to hold their lines.
Not if Russians will loose all of their support infrastructure. Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't they maintaining the frontline only through constant artillery shelling? That's got to put a massive strain on the logistics
Also thank you for being a real human being one can talk to and not a gotcha moron vatnik
>but aren't they maintaining the frontline only through constant artillery shelling?
Not really. The massive artillery shelling was what enabled them to advance in the Donbas. But that really isn't the same as "maintaining the frontline". They are doing that just fine in Kherson, despite the ongoing Ukrainian attempts at counter-offensive.
Fair enough
I guess the war will take longer than I thought, but I still can't see how Russia can keep up these losses in the long run. Especially once HIMARS start turning on frontline units
By virtue of making a conscious decision to actually try to work with the locals. But even there, there is a network of insurgents. And Russians do not respond well to pressure. They tend to take it out on civilians.
Russia will likely have to let go of at least some of the currently occupied territories. They will be struggling with logistics with guerrillas and missiles blowing any stockpile bigger than a matchstick box. The cities they are occupying aint all so sympathetic to their cause.
As long as western support doesnt dry up, ukraine will have more than enough firepower to prevent russia from settling the borders and ukraine has no motivation to give up on the territories. Any promise from russia aint worth the ink on the paper.
Ukraine needs to do everything it can to fuel insurgency against Russia. Make it extremely difficult for them to function as a force of occupation, which is exactly what they are.
Occupations are manpower and supply-intensive, and another way to burn the Russian machine out.
ukraine has taken as much land in kherson as they've given up in luganda. the land is not as strategically valuable as what they've relinquished but to present it as if russia is confident in their ability to retain territory without sustained assault is simply wrong.
And to claim that massive and continuous artillery barrage is the only thing that enables them to hold what they have is correct?
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
The Russian military is corrupt and incompetent, no match for the NATO-trained Ukrainian military. They lost too many elite troops early via stupid moves.
Without massed artillery, the Vatniks are fricking nothing. Burn down their logistics and the entire house of cards collapses.
2 years ago
Anonymous
yes, it is. of course it is. they have shown a strict inability to competently employ infantry and armor. their precision assets are no longer strategically significant. without a constant output of artillery barrage across any active front they would be left essentially defenseless.
2 years ago
Anonymous
You are missing the original point - Which was that neither side will be able to conduct a decisive (counter)offensive. I agree that Russians need massive artillery firepower to grab more land, however I also claim that Ukrainians will not be able to break through Russian lines either.
And I stand by this point - Kherson is an active frontline, but the Ukrainian advances there are piecemeal as well and the Russians do not seem to be nowhere close to collapsing even there.
I just think that once the conflict settles into a stalemate within the coming weeks it's unreasonable to assume there will be significant territorial changes one way or the other.
Russia moved too many troops out of Kherson to support the manpower needed for the East. They left that front exposed.
And considering how many troops the Russians lost in the East, how the frick are they going to turn around and go back to Kherson without leaving the East open?
>despite the ongoing Ukrainian attempts at counter-offensive.
They don't seem to pour a lot of their firepower there, though. It's not exactly counter offense, at least, not a huge one. They're still waiting, and advancing slowly. They should have firepower to make a big push, and, according to Girkin, they've been waiting for it since the end of june. We shall see what they're planning.
>Russia curbstomps Ukraine
It was closer to: >Russia attempted an air raid and failed >Said frick it and rolled their tanks into single lines through roadways to reach Kiev as soon as possible >Obviously got repelled because that's the dumbest tactic ever conceived and would only work if the enemy is inviting you or is so crippled it can't fight back at all
China is fricked and they hate this.
China 'wins' a gas station with a leader as reviled and less sane than North Korea, but loses Belt&Road, a food exporter that isn't western-aligned, and potential NATO-backed uprisings in their northern neighbor.
This is an absolute disaster for China, especially when they were an inch away from trying shit with Taiwan, Covid fricking with their economy, and Xi's toady in Evergrande tanking their stock market in slow-motion.
believing china is gonna invade Taiwan is such a meme its boogey man to keep the population supportive. Same with US-Cuba relations. U.S spectualed it would take 200k soilders to take Taiwan from a straving Japanese army of 20k in WW2, because the island is straight up a fortress.
Russia is probably going to win
Ukraine has far fewer people and is losing them more quickly
Ukraine’s GDP is basically gone while Russia’s is merely declining
They have a million personnel on paper but the ones deployed are still less than the Russian side because of a lack of weaponry and not enough officers to train them (they have to transition to Western/NATO model too, remember).
The best way to negate the Russian manpower issue is to wipe the logistical system completely out. No trains, no depots, as many trucks as possible, etc. Strike without mercy as often as possible.
>Russia is probably going to win
Only if Russia goes into full war country wide mobilization. If it continues to treat this as a "Special Operation", it will eventually get crippled by the cost and sanctions. In which case they would threaten Ukraine with nukes and enforce a deal with Ukraine giving up lost territory and maybe a "stay out of NATO" deal.
Now, in the bigger picture, NATO has shown that Russia can't fight a war with a modern nation, let alone NATO/US, their equipment is trash, their chain of command is fricked up, got two more countries into NATO, revitalized NATO with a great excuse to keep it alive and well funded, made the entirety of the NU-EU to hate Russia like it's the Cold War, and the West has sufficient excuses to continue to sanction Russia for the next decade.
Drop a war declaration, claim "we are fighting against NATO directly" which will light a patriotic firestorm for mobilization, then go maximum infosecurity control so Russia's general populace remains fully under the impression that it's the End War - but the enemy is too scared to use nukes yet is getting demolished conventionally.
When victory is achieved to their west, probably should immediately spin and annex everything that is not in NATO because you better believe they'll be shrieking to be let into the compass club as a result of witnessing the draconian actions required to suppress the monumental turbocharged shitcane of Ukrainian insurgency.
Ukraine simply doesn't have this capability. They can hit rail stations and tracks, but those are easy to fix up. Roads and runways are easily filled. They're not allowed to strike targets within Russia with the best capability (HIMARS) and even if they COULD the Russian interior is far to large to effect a significant impact. They can cause local shortages by hitting NATO-fed targets, but this only poses a setback not a fundamental risk to operations. They'll wisen up and distribute their logistics sites, improve efforts at camouflage and so on; the damage they take will go down, not up.
Ukraine can't win at the current time. They need the ability to identify weaknesses in the Russian lines, break through them into the rear and force a retreat. That's the only way Ukraine can possible win, and they are completely unable to do that. They can't even provide fire support for their own defensive lines, running an offensive might as well be swimming across the Atlantic to them.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
So the Russians are going to make their logistical systems that much more convulsed by scattering them all over kingdom come.
And the sad fact is, the Russian vehicles can't hide their traffic patterns. The massive nature of an invasion requires constant movement to refuel, re-arm, etc.
New targets will be provided to Ukraine on a constant basis.
2 years ago
Based Charlie Magne Poster
Russia doesn't even have the manpower to secure its own rear areas, let alone contain insurgencies.
Logistics itself is ALSO manpower-intensive. The more troops get tied down in Logistical duties, the less troops Russians have for actual combat.
The only dismantling will be in the Ukrainian/ Once Odessa it secured Ukraine will be a European version of Paraguay, a landlocked hellscape of violence and corruption.
>Only if Russia goes into full war country wide mobilization
I'm sceptical that would help at this point.
And an actual war declaration has quite widespread consequences, with the russian remaining "allies" and "neutrals" being unable to pretend that russia is just doing special operation. There is a reason why even yanks have not actually declared a real war since ww2.
>In which case they would threaten Ukraine with nukes and enforce a deal with Ukraine giving up lost territory and maybe a "stay out of NATO" deal.
Ukraine would never accept this, and the international community would never accept the precedent that you can invade another country, lose, and threaten to nuke them unless you get to keep their territory and decide their foreign policy for them. The West has nukes too, and an interest in making sure this is not the case. If a nuke is fired, the Russian state will be dismantled. Who would defend Russia here? China? They stand to benefit immensely from Russia being dismantled into nice little bite-sized chunks.
Russia will likely have to let go of at least some of the currently occupied territories. They will be struggling with logistics with guerrillas and missiles blowing any stockpile bigger than a matchstick box. The cities they are occupying aint all so sympathetic to their cause.
As long as western support doesnt dry up, ukraine will have more than enough firepower to prevent russia from settling the borders and ukraine has no motivation to give up on the territories. Any promise from russia aint worth the ink on the paper.
The war mongers win.
USA wins because it now knows Russia is just an old demented tiger.
China wins because Russia will be sucking chink wiener to try and get supplies for the war and with their economy in shambles, they'll have nothing but raw materials and land to sell.
Russia is in big trouble. As the invader it really needs to come up with some way to reduce Ukraine's warmaking ability beyond the frontal assault. Their rapid advance in Feb largely failed to sieze key geography to disintegrate the country nor did the intial air campaign seem effective. 4 months later, the Russians don't have air superiority so they can't destroy Ukraine's logisitic and command infrastructure and they have failed to seal Ukraine's western border so western aid still flows. This leaves them with few options beyond grinding assaults which are highly inefficient and likely unsustainable. At the current trajectory Russia's best outcome looks like years of stalemate and a frozen conflict (WWI, Korea, Iran-Iraq) at front lines broadly similar to those right now. It's also possible that Russian holdings in Ukraine become untenable and Ukraine liberates significantly more territory if not all of it.
Russia lost in the first week when they dreams of a quick Ukrainian capitulation didn't realize.
What we see now is an extended case study on sunk cost fallacy.
@the namegay
Are you some sort of elaborate vatnik falseflag designed to make people supporting ukraine look like obnoxious redditor morons or just underage
>is the russians or the ukrainains winning and why/how
Tactical Russian victory.
Strategic NATO victory.
Any other answer is wrong. Russia is slowly attriting Ukraine away. Material supplied by the west is slowly being lost. Ground is slowly being lost. The same can be said for the Russians. However, just looking at the number of BTGs, Russia is building up their forces while Ukraine's ability to continue the fight is slowly degrading. By no means though will the war end anytime soon. Russia cannot take Ukraine in its entirety without unacceptable losses. Ukraine will be left in shambles and the Russian military will be partially disabled. Both economies will be in worse shape as compared to the rest of the world.
>just looking at the number of BTGs
for the love of god actually read something on the nature of their BTGs and their combat readiness, in particular their actual personnel strength
>is the russians or the ukrainains winning and why/how
Tactical Russian victory.
Strategic NATO victory.
Any other answer is wrong. Russia is slowly attriting Ukraine away. Material supplied by the west is slowly being lost. Ground is slowly being lost. The same can be said for the Russians. However, just looking at the number of BTGs, Russia is building up their forces while Ukraine's ability to continue the fight is slowly degrading. By no means though will the war end anytime soon. Russia cannot take Ukraine in its entirety without unacceptable losses. Ukraine will be left in shambles and the Russian military will be partially disabled. Both economies will be in worse shape as compared to the rest of the world.
And the quality of their personnel as well.
Hihgly motivated ukrainian volunteer who goes through actual proper military basic training (whether in Ukraine, or in the UK, or in the Eastern European countries which are rumored to have been training Ukrainians in their territory already as well) is magnitude more useful in the combat than your random barely-trained at all Russian pensioner volunteering so he gets drinking money or random Donbabwe conscript who got send straight to the front.
I highly doubt the British POWs will be executed. It's a publicity stunt for Russian domestic propaganda.
>muh Ruskies are inept!!!
Yes but there are enough of them that it doesn't matter. Ukraine doesn't have enough to deal with the human waves. Even the UA generals are whining about attrition.
That's literally false you mongoloid
Read my posts again, Russians have significant manpower issues. That's part of the reason why bulk of the fighting is being carried by wagner-like groups, volunteers, and donbabweans.
Basically, a circus of hacks. No match for the Ukrainian military. They'll be even less of a match when Ukraine reduces the Russian invasion to pure infantry-only. No supplies = no war.
And if the Russians don't have any massed artillery or fuel supplies, how are they going to support such frontal assaults? The Ukrainians will simply slaughter the Russians with their own artillery.
Yes. Whats wrong with that? They are all slavs in the end. Russia will cuck Ukraine in the end. This recession will be over in the end.
2 years ago
Anonymous
Nothing wrong with it. It just an usual shill shit to claim that russians are suffering less casualties than ukraine.
As long as russians are dying en masse I'm satisfied regardless of the outcome.
Russia is, and will be even more so, China's b***h.
China will buy Russian resources at bargain prices to feed her people and her industry.
What does China lose from NOT invading Taiwan? 25 million pissed off Bugmen? They have enough of that in just one Mainland Chinese Bug City.
The US wins because everyone is itching to buy US high-tech weaponry, which makes NATO even more it's b***h.
Ukraine loses as long as it confines itself to fighting the war on its own territory, and leaving Russia's oil infrastructure and manufacturing alone.
Russia loses because it has thrown away it's future over various plots of strewn rubble fields.
This can all be reversed if Putin dies or gets assassinated and the Russian that succeeds him stops the war.
Russia will still lose, only not as badly as it would have.
Ukraine is "winning" in the sense that they're denying the Russians the ability to accomplish their stated goals and are still holding the vast majority of their territory, despite significant setbacks.
Of course, vatniks have no ability to think critically about what the definition of "victory" actually means, so when they sacrifice 4000 men and a few hundred million worth of armor and aircraft to sieze a city which serves no practical purpose having been leveled with artillery, they call it a win for Russia because "durrr we own more clay than we did yesterday!".
If the norks tried to storm Seoul and spent half their ordnance to only walk away with some uninhabited islands and border villages, no sensible person would regard them as having "won" anything given the price they paid. Applying that logic to Russia is even more moronic given that prior to all this they still had the capability to use their perceived warfighting ability as a deterrent.
This war all ties back to one big problem for Russia.
It is Putin. He has cultivated such an image of macho strength, he is psychologically incapable of backing out of a bad situation if it damages his pride and ego. He's a gambler who doubles-down, no matter how bad his hand is.
And that is why Ukraine can actually bring him down. Russia has cultivated a mass hysteria about "Muh Anti-Nazi Campaign" for months. You have any idea what would happen to Putin if Ukraine bested the Russians in battle?
What I don't understand is the indignant attitude of the Russians over the Ukrainians defending themselves. If you want to stop dying frick off it's that simple. People don't owe you shit head fealty or anything else. You are just another hoard from the steppes coming to frick with people and even if you weren't they obviously don't want you there therefore you have no right to be there. You are the exact douchebags you accuse others of being. Get your heads out of your asses and coup your leader before you really lose anything worth having in your nation.
Russia is basically the abusive relative outraged the person he victimizes is now fighting back.
For this reason, Ukraine should win back ALL its territory. Crimea can rot in its own special hell.
Paraphrasing the recent Royal United Services Institute on how can Ukraine can turn things around (Watling & Reynolds).
Ukraine is going to need four things to out and out win---
A simplified and massively expanded supply chain from the West. We can't keep sending them hundred different types of equipment. We need to send them a few key systems
>Massive numbers of MLRS systems >Effective air defense systems to prevent Russian cruise missile strikes >Anti radiation seekers for loitering munitions to target Russian electronic warfare capability >A multiple country training program to train up Ukrainian troops >Many, many more IFVS to protect troops from artillery
Each of these things, the west has been doing piecemeal but we need to go whole hog
Cont'd->
Agreed. The West needs to stop b***hing and COMMIT to the fricking cause.
Paraphrasing the recent Royal United Services Institute on how can Ukraine can turn things around (Watling & Reynolds).
Ukraine is going to need four things to out and out win---
A simplified and massively expanded supply chain from the West. We can't keep sending them hundred different types of equipment. We need to send them a few key systems
>Massive numbers of MLRS systems >Effective air defense systems to prevent Russian cruise missile strikes >Anti radiation seekers for loitering munitions to target Russian electronic warfare capability >A multiple country training program to train up Ukrainian troops >Many, many more IFVS to protect troops from artillery
Each of these things, the west has been doing piecemeal but we need to go whole hog
You are a bunch of jingoistic armchair militaries and you have been consistently wrong for months already. Why should anyone listen to anyone's opinion on this board?
the most wrong i've ever been is when i thought russia would win LOL in two weeks mo less LMAO it's so embarrassing i actually thought kyiv would fall ROFLMAO
I dont even like Russia, I just want them to win so that these fricking europoor war tourists will leave this fricking board and we can actually go back to being a weapons board instead of a Ukraine board.
They could be if they win and get all the shit west has pushed into Ukraine and ukrainean manpower.
Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, maybe even the Republic of Korea if another dumbfrick prez wins 2024 and repeals the USFK Mutual Defense Clause.
Baltics are unlikely to be directly attacked for another five years at the least.
Belarus is probably going to be fully annexed though. Russia is pissed that Lukashenko isn't committing any military detachments to the invasion. Kazakhstan might meet a similar fate.
Same, I just want Ukraine to win so that these fricking europoor war tourists will leave this fricking board and we can actually go back to being a weapons board instead of a Russian vs Ukraine board.
Is it it just me or does EVERY single aspect of this conflict seem to, by design, be to some social-media-friendly stuff designed to make people in countries that matter have a picrel reaction while being distracted from the bullshit their WEF leaders are doing at home?
It's just this non-stop string of buzzfeed tier shit like >ZELENSKY ANNIHILATES CRITICS WITH THIS ONE WEIRD TRICK
The Russians took 90% of the land they occupy in the first few days of the war when they rolled through uncontested. They may end up taking the rest of Donetsk but I doubt it. This means they won't even be able to achieve their diminished cope objective let alone taking the whole country like they wanted. It's generally easier to defend than attack so they should be able to hold most of their gains unless the west sends some more serious weapons. So essentially the war is over what you see now is what the territorial control going forward will look like because neither side has enough strength to attack and take territory anymore.
>So essentially the war is over what you see now is what the territorial control going forward will look like
Nah, borders will be decided after military defeat of one side.
Russia lost the moment they crossed the boarder. They have been exposed as a paper tiger, Sweden and Finland joined NATO, easy Intel on Russian weaponry and tactics, their economy is in shambles, the world keeps moving forward leaving Russia in the past, nobody likes Russia.
This is what every Russian shill fails to recognize. Not a single inch of occupied territory will be recognized any anyone but maybe Syria. Russia will remain sanctioned and become a 3rd world tier pariah state.
>Not a single inch of occupied territory will be recognized any anyone but maybe Syria
oh no. that would be a tragedy on the scale of say, Taiwan. however would russia cope?
Jesus you're moronic. Everyone sidesteps calling Taiwan an independent country from China but they're still recognized as a defacto sovereign state. No one but China actually disputes Taiwan's existence, every country but Syria disputes Russia's clay grab.
Also I'm not sure Russia has thought this through.
If the Separatists are "not Russians" (so they have plausible deniability when they execute those British POWs), what stops the West from declaring war on the "Separatist Republics" again?
Russia isn't losing and won't be thrown back from their gains any time soon but they've sacrificed entirely too much for what little success they've had.
The desperate coping in here is something else. Russia has been doing nothing but winning over the last 3 months. The only time Ukraine takes back a small portion of land is only after Russian leave to send reinforce a different part of the front. Ukrainian ability to produce ANY kind of offensive is almost zero. Their strategy appears simply to try and degrade Russian logistics until the invasion collapses from lack of supply. That's ridiculous given how close they are to the border with an intact rail and road network pulling in from stockpiles of HUNDREDS of MILLIONS of shells. Russian industry is trash but it's enough to make TRUCKS and rail cars. Meanwhile Ukrainian military industry is mostly destroyed. Meanwhile Russia retains air superiority. Meanwhile Russian troops retain offensive capabilities. Meanwhile the pro-Russian territories with more being fast-tracked into Russia as we speak, have been emptied out of men to absorb the brunt of infantry fighting. Meanwhile Ukranian front lines are just guys in shallow trenches with almost zero fire support, no cav and no airborne. No nothing.
That's the reality of this cripple fight. One cripple is better off than the other. I'm REALLY sorry but that's what's going on right now.
>Lose 40000 men a good portion being your limited supply of professional soldiers, thousands of vehicle, expend all of your modern ordinance, and become an international pariah who's driven nominally neutral countries into the arms of your "rivals" all to barely cling to a bombed out cratered patch of land with the economic potential of West Virginia >Nothing but winning
>The desperate coping in here is something else. Russia has been doing nothing but winning over the last 3 months.
if that were true this would have been over 2 months ago. russia just fricking blows at this. >Russian industry is trash but it's enough to make TRUCKS and rail cars.
but not pallets? > Meanwhile Ukranian front lines are just guys in shallow trenches with almost zero fire support, no cav and no airborne. No nothing.
then why is russia having such a horrible time?
https://i.imgur.com/l0WSQZ4.jpg
>Lose 40000 men a good portion being your limited supply of professional soldiers, thousands of vehicle, expend all of your modern ordinance, and become an international pariah who's driven nominally neutral countries into the arms of your "rivals" all to barely cling to a bombed out cratered patch of land with the economic potential of West Virginia >Nothing but winning
>with the economic potential of West Virginia
lets not stoop to hyperbole anon, WVA aint that poor.
Western economies will collapse soon, any aid to Ukraine will cease, and Russia will simply not stop the war. In the end, it cannot lose. The invasion has not been pulled off flawlessly but it triggered the fall of global dominoes and will be considered a genius move by future generations.
russia already abandoned their initial objectives, they lost by their own definition.
only giga coper morons would claim "winning" is: a primitive landgrab (as if russia didn't have enough land already) while at the same time turning ukraine into the most hostile country towards russia, that's also now aligned with nato, plus 2 new nato members
>Win
It's going to be a stalemate on the borders roughly established now.
Russia's armoured divisions have been decimated and Ukraine barely had any to begin with, neither possess the capability to launch sweeping offensives over large stretches of land.
>Is it SlavBlack person A or SlavBlack person B?
Neither. The only winner is Poland and by extension the EU seeing that Russia is basically a non-threat. But USA theoretically lost the mythical "muh Russia" bogeyman due to incompetence, but realistically the public can still be scared by "muh Russia" because they don't know how incompetent the conflict and losses have been.
Don't have a manager. Gets pretty old when the only comeback you morons have is accusing me of being a variety of slavBlack person or having any skin in this moronic shitflinging contest. How much are you paid for each post?
Ill add on to this, the only this russia is winning is showing yet again they are willing to expend vast parts of their military to completely take over a studio apartment size of land (looking at you georgia invasion) every 5-10 years. by this pace they will control the world in another 1000 years
Russia is winning
I mean does losing a third of the country qualifies as "winning"?
It's probably gonna be much more once Russia finishes off the densely populated donbass
As it stands, things are mostly a stalemate in terms of land possessed but time only goes against Russia's favor. Some of their best men and weapons gone, not going to be replaced (and they refuse to commit to full mobilization.) While Ukraine takes losses but gets both new equipment and cycles soldiers through training. So long as the defender's will to fight holds, they are winning.
Best case scenario for Russia is to hope Ukraine settles for some kind of treaty with heavy concessions of land and military- but the fact this war happened shows that any such agreement would just be used by Russia to rebuild forces and try again. So Ukraine has little to lose by continuing the fight. Even if Russia were to pull back to occupied territories, if Ukraine wants to keep fighting then there's not much Russia can do. There will be no clean withdrawal and claim of victory.
I would even argue at this point Russia could take over all of Ukraine, and they will wouldn't have "won" anything.
Ukraine must keep fighting. Russia cannot be trusted and they'll use any ceasefire to try again later. Ukraine just has to wear Russia down by dismantling their logistical infrastructure, especially their depots and trains (the latter of which they cannot replace as they're too dependent on import parts).
nobody is really winning but ukraine is doing well in holding russia off.
it seems russia hasn't changed much of its military strategy in the past 100 years, especially since victory to then still means losing all their men, resources, and worsening their populations gender gap
>nobody is really winning but ukraine is doing well in holding russia off.
This.
Russia would have to be able to take all of Ukraine to win (as they'd planned to do in 3 days) and that's not happening even in the wildest, krokodil induced dreams of herr manlet.
For Ukraine to win they have to come out of this with their territory intact and economy functional again. And getting rooting Russians out or restarting as anything else than post-WW2 rubble in the east of the country is also fairly unrealistic.
Both sides are losing tons of people and billions in equipment and lost economic productivity. But Ukraine is still holding on while Russia is tanking its reputation with everyone around them (Finland and Sweden got into NATO, Kazachstan already gave them the finger, Chinese don't answer the phone and Azrbaijan bayraktared themselves a little more of Armenia) and all of its arms sales by displaying unimaginable feats of blundering their gargantuan advantage in every field imaginable.
Both sides are walking out losers, but Russia is going to lose more.
Well, Russia did have some setbacks, but if it manages to fix the logistics, the rampant corruption, the decay of their vehicles, the incompetence and the rape such as the alcoholism then I do think they could stand a chance.
Russia had some setbacks but are now slowly but clearly on the path to victory
every day HATO and globohomosexual edge closer to starvation and destruction. The powerful russian bull army is overpowering the weak, trembling hohol nazis. The massive allied artillery continues to pound the hato pigs into submission. The Russian army will soon come to an explosive victory
Oh no, how could we, the HATO, just start a war? We will freeze to death!!1!
take a look at this map and it becomes pretty clear who is winning
Hilarious that Vatniks thought Hohols would greet them with open arms as brothers when actually Hohols have zero problem selling their own children for CP.
In what world did Russians think people who prefer money over their children wouldn't prefer money over their brothers ?
Are you implying Russia isn't a huge producer of CP?
Russia and Belarus produce even more CP, it's just a poorgay country thing.
>when actually Hohols have zero problem selling their own children for CP.
This is hilarious coming from a Russian. everything a Russian barks is projection.
>stalemate
Currently Russians had some limited, but very real and important successes in the Donbas.
But does that translate into winning the war? I don't think so.
Time is playing in the Ukrainian favour, and Russians need significant battlefield breakthrough. Slowly chipping at Ukrainian territory at exorbitant costs just is not sustainable for them - especially for as long as they refuse to mobilize and turn to wartime economy.
So I'd say that we should see a big breakthrough this summer
Nope.
Neither side is able to conduct a large-scale offensive at the moment, and chances are they will not be anytime soon.
Russians certainly won't unless they mobilize their entire economy and reserves - and even then it would be extremely doubtful they'd be able to secure decisive breakthrough that would knock Ukraine out.
Ukraine will not be able to push through the Russian positions either unless they secure absolutely massive and systematic western aid in the form of hundreds or thousands pieces of equipment instead of couple dozen of disparate units of each. That being said Ukraine absolutely is in a much better position than Russia - They have the manpower, they have the motivation, and unlike Russia they have the path forward (The potential for massive ramp up of western military aid; Russians have no such thing - their military industrial capacity is dead and China is not going to help them in the way they'd need)
However if I absolutely had to guess how this is all going to end - We will see complete stalemate in the coming weeks followed by transformation of the "hot" war into post-2014 Donbas style of low-intensity fighting. However since this will be much more costly for both sides than the War in Donbas was, we will see a negotiated resolution by the end of the year. Most likely return to the pre-24th Feb borders with the exception of LPR retaining entirety of Lugansk oblast and DPR retaining Mariupol. At the moment this might sound unacceptable to the Ukrainians, but I do believe that they will be willing to swallow it in exchange for Kherson and Zaporozhie returning under their control.
Well you're already late anon. Russia is already more degenerate than the west.
Look up Russia's abortion, divorce, HIV, suicide or drug abuse rates. And this is of course without even going into the state-mandated ethnic cleansing through importing millions of central asian immigrants every year.
>Most likely return to the pre-24th Feb borders with the exception of LPR retaining entirety of Lugansk oblast and DPR retaining Mariupol.
This is see as a realistic prediction. As for the capability to conduct large offensive, I don't think Ukraine used all those tanks that were given to them by former WP countries. I believe they are not on the frontline and Ukies are simply ammasing them for some big push.
I don't think Ukraine has any intention of letting Russia have those territories. They'll grind the Russians down if they have to. They've lost too much to stop, and they know the Russians are getting weaker.
> I don't think Ukraine used all those tanks that were given to them by former WP countries. I believe they are not on the frontline and Ukies are simply ammasing them for some big push.
1. It was <200 tanks in total. Not a game-changing amount by any stretch of the imagination, its certainly not enough to magically give ukrainians the ability to launch massive counter-offensive (just like Russians pressing reservist-staffed T-62s into service wont magically lead to them breaking through the Ukrainian positions)
2. They are confirmed to already be deployed in the Kherson oblast. Iirc some of the Czech T-72s were destroyed already (Which is to be expected however, its a war)
>reddit picture
>exagerrating the Ukrainian successes
is this what passes for psyop on /misc/ lmao
the Ukrainian successes
cope
>They are confirmed to already be deployed in the Kherson oblast.
I haven't heard about that. And honestly 200 tanks poured in one direction should be capable of breakthrough.
I don't think Russia used all those T-80 and T-72 tanks that were in storage. I believe they are not on the frontline and the Russians are simply amassing them for some big push.
There is a problem with this. How much military force can Russia afford to lose, before it renders its own nation helpless to future incursions?
Sooner or later, military reality will hit the High Command.
>"If we don't stop now, we're going to be so short of military capability, we won't be able to stop a future invasion of OUR land."
>Look up Russia's
Dont forget Covid.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/12/30/russias-excess-death-toll-hits-930k-a75964
They are now number 2nd after USA.
And that's with a 4 times smaller population kek
Indeed. 3rd is Brasil which has nearly 2 times bigger population.
This is the reason why China locked down Shanghai for two months straight, and probably will do it again in a few weeks.
They CAN NOT allow covid to spread, they will have millions of deaths.
They do not have the hospital infrastructure to support the cases they'd generate with such a huge population, and their vaccines were only ever ~50-60% effective with the OG variant, with delta and omicron it drops off from a questionable 30% to nill.
You're ignoring the fact that russians are loosing ammunition at an unacceptable rate. While it's true that Ukraine probably can't afford a massive push, Russia soon won't be able to bring supplies to the front and will have to back off to yet undestroyed depos
>russians are loosing ammunition at an unacceptable rate
define "unacceptable", troony. you have absolutely no idea how little ammunition is actually destroyed when one of those depots gets hit. if all - or even a sizeable fraction - of the shells were destroyed in the strike it would look like an atomic bomb going off. instead what we see is a simple fire - probably from the fuel in the lorries and the ammunition boxes burning - with the occasional bang as a shell goes off. makes lots of smoke and looks impressive, but is only slightly more impactful than a jeering raspberry.
>makes lots of smoke and looks impressive, but is only slightly more impactful than a jeering raspberry.
Considering the pathetic quality of Russian ammo? It's very likely substandard and even more prone to blowing up quite easily. You think a corrupt and poor nation-state competently maintains its own weapons' stockpiles? A sizeable number of their ammo consists of fricking duds.
So you'll be the one to fish the unexploded shells out of the wreckage? You'll be doing more for the Russian war cause than shilling here
These are the ramblings of a genuine moron.
Russia has more manpower. Ukraine only has ~60 battalions left against Russia's ~100. Russia is recruiting people from their occupied territories.
yes. british mod says that russia has over a half million men in bases near the border getting ready for their big summer offensive. this "offensive pause" that gets the /k/opers here jerking off to HIMARS is nothing more than supplies being diverted from the recently-finished offensives into the stores for the upcoming decisive blow.
500k men? Sure, sure. That seems absolutely plausible. They strated this war with 200k and even then they had troubles with supply but now they'll use twice as much.
russia conscripted 350k men (up from 250k) in April as part of their standard quarterly conscription, and issued a stop-loss on the men normally cycling out of their 2-year term of service. Putin wasn't kidding when he said they hadn't yet gotten serious, they've got enough stuff in storage to fight WW2 thrice over again, and have spent the months since march moving a world war's worth of supplies into striking distance of Ukraine. Ukraine - and the rest of NATO - has been playing patacake while Russia is playing to win. permanently. this world war will be the long awaited death of the west that the rest of the world has long desired.
Holy cope
>they have enough in storage to fight WW3 thrice over
Interesting topic of discussion! I fill a logistics officer billet for the US Army and have looked a bit into Russian army stores, logistics, and combat regeneration.
1. Stores: Russian army ammunition storage is amateur at best, and self-destructive at worst. Many of their artillery/tank shells have been sitting in the open, exposed to the elements, since the 1980's. Their fuses have been worn down by the freeze/thaw cycle, and Russia simply is not replacing ammunition at the rate that they are expending it. This is going to lead to their field artillery losing effectiveness rapidly as they are going to run out of serviceable ammo.
2. Logistics
Russian Army logistics are also not very good, as you can see from the initial push from Kiev. Not only is there an incredible amount of corruption from the Kremlin down to the individual level, but the inherent premise of Russian logistics has failed, with a lack of simple things like palletization significantly hindering the Russians ability to resupply their forces, not to mention 0 mechanized resupply capabilities, which would improve movement over the shattered Ukrainian road system. Back tracking to corruption, particularly at the company and below echelons, it is common for soldiers to sell their fuel and to strip copper wirings from their armored vehicles to make a quick buck. I think we'll soon find that Russia's vast fleet of Cold War armored vehicles will not be as helpful as vatnik's think.
1/2
3. Combat Regeneration
The Russian army has suffered around 30,000 KIA, with presumably 10's of thousands more wounded that is already overstressing Russia's medical capabilities. These 30,000 KIA are a mix of Russia's professional soldiers (VDV, contract soldiers in BTG's) and conscripted militiamen from LPR and DPR. These professional soldiers have effectively spent the last 4 months in a slow bloody slog that has been mostly disappointing, if not disastrous.
Should these 600,000 soldiers be flung into Ukraine, they shall be poorly trained, poorly equipped, have low morale, poorly led, against a well equipped, experienced, and determined foe.
As long as NATO (read: US) keeps supplying Ukraine, this war will be a very long and bloody conflict for Russia.
>Russia has 1.8 times the number of its total pre-conflict Ground Forces personnel waiting to strike despite not carrying out a full mobilization of reserves and conscripts
People tend to forget that Russia started the invasion by comitting most of their ground forces + militias + HOMOs + a large number of conscripts (that legally should not have been there) and continued by pulling it forces from Georgia, Armenia, Africa and most of its garrisons.
I suspect they've already forgotten about Russia sending 17y old cadets and Airforce ground crews to the front as well.
>HOMOs
Why did you repeat yourself? We know all the Russian troops are gay, we've had vatniks in here unironically defending the institutionalized sodomy.
OMOH, it's russian police
Yes, we know the Russian police are homos, they're Russians, they probably do the buttsex hazing too.
I'd say closer to winter or late spring for the tables to turn. Britain is training 12,000 Ukrainian troops to UK standards every 120 days. American lend lease money to Ukraine starts in September. The -American weapons to Ukraine have merely been stopgaps (about $7 billion worth)
Wake me up when september ends then
Read up on the specifics of the bong training.
It's just a couple week basic training course for the completely fresh volunteers teaching them shit like how to handle a firearm.
It's just to free up the Ukrainian training capacities a bit.
>It's just a couple week basic training course for the completely fresh volunteers teaching them shit like how to handle a firearm.
Yeah. What part of "UK Standard" didn't you get?
Come on now, you know what I meant.
I am not saying its not technically false, just that its a bit misleading. The original post implied that the UK standard is something meaningfully superior to what they would get were they to be trained in Ukraine which is just not true and that they'd end up as some sort of SAS tier operatives, or that's what i got.
Matter of fact is that Ukrainian training standards post 2014 are not that different from NATO, so all this really does is free up ukrainian training capacities and increase the number of basic-trained privates that they can churn out for further training. Basically the difference this brings is in quantity, not quality - the "UK standards" is just a bit redundant.
Russia is set to execute some British POWS (not matter how much the Vatniks try to claim they're mercenaries, the dudes were in the Ukrainian military officially). That war training is going to massively ramp up when that happens.
Russia can say "we have no say on the Separatists", but we all know that's bullshit.
The British POWs are Ukrainians. The one they always show has an Ukrainian wife and is about 5 years in Ukraine. I think he even has an Ukrainian passport even had the Ukrainian military training. If they kill him, thats a war crime.
I highly doubt the British POWs will be executed. It's a publicity stunt for Russian domestic propaganda.
We never know. I think they would want to exchange them for higher ranks. Do the Ukraine still have pilot POWs? Maybe they want some pilots back?
Over 30 warehouses were destroyed in the past week by HIMARS. Russian forces have run out of ammo on most contact lines and are in retreat around Kherson
cope vatBlack person
Ukraine should only launch its counteroffensives when Russia's logistical system is completely destroyed. Trains, railroads, rail hubs, depots, etc.
Hi /chug/, please put me in the "/k/ope" screencap
>Over 30 warehouses were destroyed in the past week by HIMARS.
Only 1 warehouse confirmed, the rest are imaginary as always
>especially for as long as they refuse to mobilize and turn to wartime economy.
Do it homosexual. I wanna see all those vatnik shitposter faces when they actually get drafted
>very real and important
And pyrrhic. Every time they advance a few miles, they lose tens of thousands of personnel. It's kind of funny because they're subhuman.
Russia is maintaining a stalemate on the last two fronts it has left at the cost of 2 logistics facilities per day. This is as far as the objective truth goes, everything beyond that is up to interpretation
I personally think those losses are sustainable for maybe a month tops
I am
The Russian Logistical System is being systematically dismantled now.
And without supplies, you cannot have an invasion last.
ameriKKKa
Based, when do we troony up vatnigs?
Can't wait to see all of them seethe when they become degenerate like the rest of the world.
>tolling answers will be ignored
Russia will pay the toll
Russia, kind of a slog but now that it's summer in the Northern hemisphere terrain isn't such a large setback. You can tell from the crickets chirping on the online propaganda machine.
it's been summer for two months and they've taken two towns. what kind of bizarre cope is it to say "summer will save us" when summer is halfway over and your best season and most favorable terrain have rendered disastrous losses for little gain
And they've secured the corridor, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Operational tempo isn't just for taking land in offensives. I don't think they're trying to dissolve Ukraine as a state.
>I don't think they're trying to dissolve Ukraine as a state.
Are you fricking serious? That was exactly their intention few months ago at least.
You're kind of naive to take anything a government says at face value. Looks like they already secured their economic corridor to the sea, now they can let things kind of die down like how everybody forgot the 2014 offensive was still ongoing.
Putin himself said Ukrianian nation does not exist because they are just comfused Russians. Russian plan was to annex Donbass and "Novorossia" and let the rest of Ukraine to be governed by some puppet regime. What are you even trying to argue here?
I'm trying to say that it's going to be a stalemate with years of low-intensity conflict, but Russia will ultimately come out for the better with a warm water port. And politicians strongman posture and sabre rattle all the goddamn time. Even worse than taking a government statement at face value is an individual politician.
Russia is already in a far worse position than it was 4 months ago, there's no way it gets better.
Especially when Kherson falls to Ukraine. It's the weakest link in Russia's armor. Then Russia will have to make a manpower choice.
two months ago ukrainian troops were 30km from Kherson.
today ukrainian troops are 30km from Kherson.
but sure, two more weeks amirite fellow hohols?
Yes, it is inevitable.
So you're saying the Russians still haven't driven them off after 2 months, lol? You're supposed to be the 2nd strongest military in the world.
>world
*Ukraine
My point is, Russia doesn't have the strength to dislodge the Ukrainians from around Kherson.
why are vatniks trying to use the "two more weeks" against hohols when its the russians that have been going full "just two more weeks until kiev falls/ukrainian military disintegrates/odessa is captured/the donbas pocket is closed" since the start of the war
It can work both ways
They bombed that port to the ground, don't you remember? Everything valuable that was in Mariupol is gone.
Of their goal was to take this piece of land for the port they failed in the spectacular way.
remember when japan bombed midway and suddenly it was completely unusable for the rest of eternity?
lmao moron
To be fair, the US never set uo significant infrastructure at Midway Atoll, even after the Kido Butai's veteran assets suffered critical existence failure in the local area. Only a mere airstrip, a small complex to house airfield staff and crew, and logistical storage areas.
You are going to compare Midway, a tiny speck in the Pacific ocean vs rebuilding a city and it's port?
It will boost the economy and generate jobs. This idea that reconstruction is impossible is completely Russian, because they live in buildings that would have been condemned anywhere else.
That and Ukrainians do not want to live in Russia-tier conditions. They want to be in something called actual civilization.
Broken window fallacy. All that reconstruction money to rebuild has to come from somewhere. How long will it take Russia to get a return on investment?
If the Russians had taken the city intact, they'd have stolen a lot of infrastructure for free. Now they're going to have to pay billions to rebuild
I question how long Russian occupiers will be willing to fight and die for fricking worthless (due to everything being destroyed) land that isn't even theirs. The only people who fight for worthless land are the people who lived there and have a vested interest in taking it back.
>occupiers
Liberators lad
And I wish they’d liberate us from globohomosexual too
Uh huh, which is why Russians raze everything to the ground.
they're liberating concrete from the shackles of being forced into the shape of buildings!
It all makes sense! The Russians were actually at war with building contractors!
>Liberators
Rapists and goat frickers. I can only imagine the level of obesity you're working with.
Adhom attack, has no counter argument.
Ok m8
Feel free to move to Russia if globohomosexual bothers you so much.
>Broken window fallacy. All that reconstruction money to rebuild has to come from somewhere.
We're talking about a country, not your trailer park. They still have a functional economy and support from their neighbors and the U.S.
Stop using phrases you don't understand the meaning of.
We're talking about Mariupol, which is currently controlled by the Russians (hopefully not for long). I'm saying that Mariupol will not be economically productive for a long time and focusing on the jobs given to rebuilders instead of the broader picture is flawed. The same as someone who throws a stone through another person's window-- the broken window is profit for the windowmaker but no one else.
Russia already controlled Sevastopol.
when they relented from kyiv it was the exact opposite - trying to claim russia never declared intent to dissolve the state despite their actions clearly showing the intent. you cannot escape your deeds by falling back on your words or vice versa, there is a clear intent in both. russia wanted ukraine and will never have it. cope and seethe.
This. It's like how attempted murder is still a thing even if the perpetrator failed to kill the victim.
>And they've secured the corridor
two weeks to dnipro right? you totally won't memoryhole this offensive just like the north, just like kharkiv, just like odesa and linking up with transisteria, right?
USA, China and surprisingly Poland.
>February 24 - 27
Russia curbstomps Ukraine
>February 27 - mid March
Ukraine holds out bravely
>Mid March - June
Supercharged by NATO budget and Five Eyes intelligence, Ukraine pushes Russia back in a campaign that will cause Russia butthurt for as long as that country still exists in its current form
>June to present
Stalemate
Is this about right?
Yes.
Just about agree.
Except
>Russia curbstomps Ukraine
"Curbstomps" implies that Russians were able to overcome Ukrainian resistance. But the things were initially so chaotic there was not much organized actual fighting even going on in the first couple of days, certainly not in the context of seizing territory.
Also not sure I'd attribute the Ukrainian successes since March to "NATO budget".
Definitely intelligence, but it was first and foremost operational failures and systematic shortcomings on the part of the Russians rather than some newfound capacities on the Ukrainian side if you get what im saying.
And i never said otherwise anon. You are saying what im saying - Ukraine can't afford a massive push, and neither can Russia. But both sides will continue to be able to hold their lines.
That's not how it works. Good chunk of the Polish or Czech T-72s were used to plug the holes in the frontlines or replace casualties. They were not really meant to be used to create operational reserves - That's what the (hopefully coming eventually) western equipment would be used for.
As for the tanks already being on the frontlines - Just google "Czech tanks mykolaiv" or something along those lines.
Until Russia runs out of supplies and thus cannot maintain position with any kind of safety.
He who controls the supplies controls the universe!
I did not reply to any of your other posts because thought that signifying a fricking namegay with a (you) is not something that i can swallow but jesus christ my man your posts read like you are fricking 12
you really need to go back, and im saying this as someone who agrees with most of the points you are unsuccessfully trying to make
Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics. Russia can pull the grandest strategy out of its fricking ass, but it means nothing without the supplies to support it.
Correct. Russia is completely dependent on massed artillery spam to even crawl forward. Take that capacity from them, and it is over.
>Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.
That’s very American thing to say. A war between neighbours isn’t won by logistics as logistics is in such case really simple. Russian failure in the first stage of war on the Kiev front isn’t as much as logistics failure as total failure of everything.
>as logistics is in such case really simple
and russians manage to fail at even that
Vehicles without fuel cannot move. Weapons without ammo cannot fire. Soldiers without food and water cannot survive.
THAT is reality.
And the British will howl for blood. They'll start training the Ukrainians to the highest standard they can muster.
I'm simply an unpaid propagandist for Ukraine who isn't even going to get a medal for his efforts when Ukraine pisses on Russia's grave.
Post-script: and unfortunately for the Russian shills, I have the advantage of having found a very simple truth of the war.
The Russian logistical system was so weak already, it's very easy to cripple. And if that goes, it loses. No supplies, no war.
>That’s very American thing to say.
Yes, and that's why it's true. America and Russia, oddly enough, both LARP as the Romans. The difference is that America LARPs as Post-Marian Republic and Principate Rome with its terrifying logistical and engineering excellence, building roads and structures wherever they go, as well as a hatred of kings and an idealized view of the free soldier-farmer-citizen. Russia LARPs as the Byzantine rump state. Dripping in iconography, obsessed with the glorious past, suffering a permanent persecution complex, brutal out of cruelty rather than practicality, far more orientalist than it can admit, and mindlessly autocratic.
America and Russia also have a sense of being white but NOT European. We both feel alienated from Europe, albeit we went in different directions.
America went optimistic, declaring ourselves better than Europe because we were "Shining City On Hill". Russia went nihilistic, declaring the fricking WORLD was no better than it because everyone was just as shitty as they were.
It also manifests in a similar yet different perception of Ukraine.
To America, Ukraine is us declaring themselves free of a tyrannical oppressor and seeking to better themselves.
To Russia, Ukraine is a dangerous Slavic upstart that needs to be dragged back into Russian Hell. Why? Because only Russia is allowed to have a persecution complex. How dare Ukraine play bigger victim.
>Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics
how trite. just the sort of kindergarten-level thinking we've come to expect from you.
proven true in Ukraine tbh
post kherson, melitopol, mariupol, severodonetsk, and lyschansk.
Let's see......
Two cities packed with traitors taken early. Mariupol took months and killed the Russian Southern Offensive. And the last two were reduced to rubble.
So every time the Russians had to seriously fight for a real city, they lost a ton of manpower.
>severodonetsk, and lyschansk.
Is this the only actual military victory of Russia so far? Seems Ukraine is indeed winning.
Well, it is still better than your Marvel superhero logic where the only willpower is enough to surpass any challenge.
A strategy without supplies is like a car without an engine. I know you're trying really hard to deny reality, but without supplies, your invasion collapses. And you know it.
What a shame your manpower is so stretched out. Leaves your rear areas so exposed.
I know you're trying really hard to push your fantasy that a few rockets have completely destroyed the russian logistics system. it's an attractive fantasy, because it's the only thing that gives the ukrainians a chance in hell of coming out of this, but unfortunately it is not supported by the evidence on the ground. the russians took severodonetsk and lyschansk two weeks after the ukrainians started targetting the russian depots around the popasna-kreminna pocket, and it had no affect whatsoever on the outcome.
Then that would be a logistical victory for Russia.
Your supply lines aren't going to be too hard to cut. Your rear areas are pathetically defended.
big talk from a fake country that hasn't succeeded in cutting russian supply lines even once.
Real enough to put a lot of Russian troops in their graves. You've lost more men in a few months than in years of fricking Afghanistan.
welcome to modern war kiddo
Modern war looks like pic related. Russia is a primitive failed state.
The expression is "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics." Strategy, the question of when and for what to go to war, is clearly above your level if you can't even correctly quote a decades old expression.
>your posts read like you are fricking 12
probably a precocious kindergartener.
>But both sides will continue to be able to hold their lines.
Not if Russians will loose all of their support infrastructure. Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't they maintaining the frontline only through constant artillery shelling? That's got to put a massive strain on the logistics
Also thank you for being a real human being one can talk to and not a gotcha moron vatnik
>but aren't they maintaining the frontline only through constant artillery shelling?
Not really. The massive artillery shelling was what enabled them to advance in the Donbas. But that really isn't the same as "maintaining the frontline". They are doing that just fine in Kherson, despite the ongoing Ukrainian attempts at counter-offensive.
Fair enough
I guess the war will take longer than I thought, but I still can't see how Russia can keep up these losses in the long run. Especially once HIMARS start turning on frontline units
By virtue of making a conscious decision to actually try to work with the locals. But even there, there is a network of insurgents. And Russians do not respond well to pressure. They tend to take it out on civilians.
Ukraine needs to do everything it can to fuel insurgency against Russia. Make it extremely difficult for them to function as a force of occupation, which is exactly what they are.
Occupations are manpower and supply-intensive, and another way to burn the Russian machine out.
ukraine has taken as much land in kherson as they've given up in luganda. the land is not as strategically valuable as what they've relinquished but to present it as if russia is confident in their ability to retain territory without sustained assault is simply wrong.
And to claim that massive and continuous artillery barrage is the only thing that enables them to hold what they have is correct?
The Russian military is corrupt and incompetent, no match for the NATO-trained Ukrainian military. They lost too many elite troops early via stupid moves.
Without massed artillery, the Vatniks are fricking nothing. Burn down their logistics and the entire house of cards collapses.
yes, it is. of course it is. they have shown a strict inability to competently employ infantry and armor. their precision assets are no longer strategically significant. without a constant output of artillery barrage across any active front they would be left essentially defenseless.
You are missing the original point - Which was that neither side will be able to conduct a decisive (counter)offensive. I agree that Russians need massive artillery firepower to grab more land, however I also claim that Ukrainians will not be able to break through Russian lines either.
And I stand by this point - Kherson is an active frontline, but the Ukrainian advances there are piecemeal as well and the Russians do not seem to be nowhere close to collapsing even there.
I just think that once the conflict settles into a stalemate within the coming weeks it's unreasonable to assume there will be significant territorial changes one way or the other.
Russia moved too many troops out of Kherson to support the manpower needed for the East. They left that front exposed.
And considering how many troops the Russians lost in the East, how the frick are they going to turn around and go back to Kherson without leaving the East open?
>despite the ongoing Ukrainian attempts at counter-offensive.
They don't seem to pour a lot of their firepower there, though. It's not exactly counter offense, at least, not a huge one. They're still waiting, and advancing slowly. They should have firepower to make a big push, and, according to Girkin, they've been waiting for it since the end of june. We shall see what they're planning.
Ukrainians are far more patient than the Russians, who try to just brute-force everything fast.
>Russia curbstomps Ukraine
It was closer to:
>Russia attempted an air raid and failed
>Said frick it and rolled their tanks into single lines through roadways to reach Kiev as soon as possible
>Obviously got repelled because that's the dumbest tactic ever conceived and would only work if the enemy is inviting you or is so crippled it can't fight back at all
>is the russians or the ukrainains winning and why/how
neither, the ones that profit are the winners
Kazakhstan wins again
so the US and China, the rest is fricked
China is fricked and they hate this.
China 'wins' a gas station with a leader as reviled and less sane than North Korea, but loses Belt&Road, a food exporter that isn't western-aligned, and potential NATO-backed uprisings in their northern neighbor.
This is an absolute disaster for China, especially when they were an inch away from trying shit with Taiwan, Covid fricking with their economy, and Xi's toady in Evergrande tanking their stock market in slow-motion.
believing china is gonna invade Taiwan is such a meme its boogey man to keep the population supportive. Same with US-Cuba relations. U.S spectualed it would take 200k soilders to take Taiwan from a straving Japanese army of 20k in WW2, because the island is straight up a fortress.
Russia is probably going to win
Ukraine has far fewer people and is losing them more quickly
Ukraine’s GDP is basically gone while Russia’s is merely declining
More like Russia is merly pretending their economy is OK.
Maybe?
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/08/macdac-a78248
Someone hasn't heard of "special economic measures" yet. 🙂
Russia cannot win with a completely crippled logistical system. No fuel, no ammo equals no victory.
THAT is the weak point in Russia's armor and it should be hit without fricking mercy. Every day, multiple targets should go up in flames.
>Ukraine has far fewer people and is losing them more quickly
I don't really understand why these dumbfricks think this is in any way realistic.
They have a million personnel on paper but the ones deployed are still less than the Russian side because of a lack of weaponry and not enough officers to train them (they have to transition to Western/NATO model too, remember).
The best way to negate the Russian manpower issue is to wipe the logistical system completely out. No trains, no depots, as many trucks as possible, etc. Strike without mercy as often as possible.
No supplies = no more Russian invasion.
>Russia is probably going to win
Only if Russia goes into full war country wide mobilization. If it continues to treat this as a "Special Operation", it will eventually get crippled by the cost and sanctions. In which case they would threaten Ukraine with nukes and enforce a deal with Ukraine giving up lost territory and maybe a "stay out of NATO" deal.
Now, in the bigger picture, NATO has shown that Russia can't fight a war with a modern nation, let alone NATO/US, their equipment is trash, their chain of command is fricked up, got two more countries into NATO, revitalized NATO with a great excuse to keep it alive and well funded, made the entirety of the NU-EU to hate Russia like it's the Cold War, and the West has sufficient excuses to continue to sanction Russia for the next decade.
Putin has staked his entire reputation on winning this war, and he has tried to spin it for months that Russia is beating the Ukrainians.
How would a full mobilization signal that Russia was winning the war against the 22nd most powerful military in the world?
Putin is too full of himself to sink to full mobilization against a nation he views as false and beneath him.
Drop a war declaration, claim "we are fighting against NATO directly" which will light a patriotic firestorm for mobilization, then go maximum infosecurity control so Russia's general populace remains fully under the impression that it's the End War - but the enemy is too scared to use nukes yet is getting demolished conventionally.
When victory is achieved to their west, probably should immediately spin and annex everything that is not in NATO because you better believe they'll be shrieking to be let into the compass club as a result of witnessing the draconian actions required to suppress the monumental turbocharged shitcane of Ukrainian insurgency.
Which again is WHY we need to dismantle the entire Russian logistical system. No supplies = no ability to fricking escalate.
Ukraine simply doesn't have this capability. They can hit rail stations and tracks, but those are easy to fix up. Roads and runways are easily filled. They're not allowed to strike targets within Russia with the best capability (HIMARS) and even if they COULD the Russian interior is far to large to effect a significant impact. They can cause local shortages by hitting NATO-fed targets, but this only poses a setback not a fundamental risk to operations. They'll wisen up and distribute their logistics sites, improve efforts at camouflage and so on; the damage they take will go down, not up.
Ukraine can't win at the current time. They need the ability to identify weaknesses in the Russian lines, break through them into the rear and force a retreat. That's the only way Ukraine can possible win, and they are completely unable to do that. They can't even provide fire support for their own defensive lines, running an offensive might as well be swimming across the Atlantic to them.
So the Russians are going to make their logistical systems that much more convulsed by scattering them all over kingdom come.
And the sad fact is, the Russian vehicles can't hide their traffic patterns. The massive nature of an invasion requires constant movement to refuel, re-arm, etc.
New targets will be provided to Ukraine on a constant basis.
Russia doesn't even have the manpower to secure its own rear areas, let alone contain insurgencies.
Logistics itself is ALSO manpower-intensive. The more troops get tied down in Logistical duties, the less troops Russians have for actual combat.
All of this can and will be exploited.
The only dismantling will be in the Ukrainian/ Once Odessa it secured Ukraine will be a European version of Paraguay, a landlocked hellscape of violence and corruption.
>Only if Russia goes into full war country wide mobilization
I'm sceptical that would help at this point.
And an actual war declaration has quite widespread consequences, with the russian remaining "allies" and "neutrals" being unable to pretend that russia is just doing special operation. There is a reason why even yanks have not actually declared a real war since ww2.
>In which case they would threaten Ukraine with nukes and enforce a deal with Ukraine giving up lost territory and maybe a "stay out of NATO" deal.
Ukraine would never accept this, and the international community would never accept the precedent that you can invade another country, lose, and threaten to nuke them unless you get to keep their territory and decide their foreign policy for them. The West has nukes too, and an interest in making sure this is not the case. If a nuke is fired, the Russian state will be dismantled. Who would defend Russia here? China? They stand to benefit immensely from Russia being dismantled into nice little bite-sized chunks.
Russia is at the "operational pause" state that tends to precede a withdrawal
Russia will likely have to let go of at least some of the currently occupied territories. They will be struggling with logistics with guerrillas and missiles blowing any stockpile bigger than a matchstick box. The cities they are occupying aint all so sympathetic to their cause.
As long as western support doesnt dry up, ukraine will have more than enough firepower to prevent russia from settling the borders and ukraine has no motivation to give up on the territories. Any promise from russia aint worth the ink on the paper.
The war mongers win.
USA wins because it now knows Russia is just an old demented tiger.
China wins because Russia will be sucking chink wiener to try and get supplies for the war and with their economy in shambles, they'll have nothing but raw materials and land to sell.
Russia is in big trouble. As the invader it really needs to come up with some way to reduce Ukraine's warmaking ability beyond the frontal assault. Their rapid advance in Feb largely failed to sieze key geography to disintegrate the country nor did the intial air campaign seem effective. 4 months later, the Russians don't have air superiority so they can't destroy Ukraine's logisitic and command infrastructure and they have failed to seal Ukraine's western border so western aid still flows. This leaves them with few options beyond grinding assaults which are highly inefficient and likely unsustainable. At the current trajectory Russia's best outcome looks like years of stalemate and a frozen conflict (WWI, Korea, Iran-Iraq) at front lines broadly similar to those right now. It's also possible that Russian holdings in Ukraine become untenable and Ukraine liberates significantly more territory if not all of it.
frozen conflict =/= stalemate anon
ww1 or iran-iraq war were never a frozen conflict pls use the terminology properly
t. military studies autist
Russia lost in the first week when they dreams of a quick Ukrainian capitulation didn't realize.
What we see now is an extended case study on sunk cost fallacy.
Could Russia have won if they concentrated on the Donbass right from the start?
Yes.
Obviously they'd need to deploy different operational strategy as well.
realistically noone, the world is going to shit.
@the namegay
Are you some sort of elaborate vatnik falseflag designed to make people supporting ukraine look like obnoxious redditor morons or just underage
>is the russians or the ukrainains winning and why/how
Tactical Russian victory.
Strategic NATO victory.
Any other answer is wrong. Russia is slowly attriting Ukraine away. Material supplied by the west is slowly being lost. Ground is slowly being lost. The same can be said for the Russians. However, just looking at the number of BTGs, Russia is building up their forces while Ukraine's ability to continue the fight is slowly degrading. By no means though will the war end anytime soon. Russia cannot take Ukraine in its entirety without unacceptable losses. Ukraine will be left in shambles and the Russian military will be partially disabled. Both economies will be in worse shape as compared to the rest of the world.
>just looking at the number of BTGs
for the love of god actually read something on the nature of their BTGs and their combat readiness, in particular their actual personnel strength
And the quality of their personnel as well.
Hihgly motivated ukrainian volunteer who goes through actual proper military basic training (whether in Ukraine, or in the UK, or in the Eastern European countries which are rumored to have been training Ukrainians in their territory already as well) is magnitude more useful in the combat than your random barely-trained at all Russian pensioner volunteering so he gets drinking money or random Donbabwe conscript who got send straight to the front.
This.
>muh Ruskies are inept!!!
Yes but there are enough of them that it doesn't matter. Ukraine doesn't have enough to deal with the human waves. Even the UA generals are whining about attrition.
That's literally false you mongoloid
Read my posts again, Russians have significant manpower issues. That's part of the reason why bulk of the fighting is being carried by wagner-like groups, volunteers, and donbabweans.
Basically, a circus of hacks. No match for the Ukrainian military. They'll be even less of a match when Ukraine reduces the Russian invasion to pure infantry-only. No supplies = no war.
And if the Russians don't have any massed artillery or fuel supplies, how are they going to support such frontal assaults? The Ukrainians will simply slaughter the Russians with their own artillery.
So you are admitting that russians are losing 10 people for one ukrainian?
Yes. Whats wrong with that? They are all slavs in the end. Russia will cuck Ukraine in the end. This recession will be over in the end.
Nothing wrong with it. It just an usual shill shit to claim that russians are suffering less casualties than ukraine.
As long as russians are dying en masse I'm satisfied regardless of the outcome.
China wins and USA/NATO win.
Russia is, and will be even more so, China's b***h.
China will buy Russian resources at bargain prices to feed her people and her industry.
What does China lose from NOT invading Taiwan? 25 million pissed off Bugmen? They have enough of that in just one Mainland Chinese Bug City.
The US wins because everyone is itching to buy US high-tech weaponry, which makes NATO even more it's b***h.
Ukraine loses as long as it confines itself to fighting the war on its own territory, and leaving Russia's oil infrastructure and manufacturing alone.
Russia loses because it has thrown away it's future over various plots of strewn rubble fields.
This can all be reversed if Putin dies or gets assassinated and the Russian that succeeds him stops the war.
Russia will still lose, only not as badly as it would have.
Ukraine has no means of actually repelling the Russians
Russia continually embarrasses itself and demonstrates incompetency the world couldn't even imagine.
America wins.
Ukraine is "winning" in the sense that they're denying the Russians the ability to accomplish their stated goals and are still holding the vast majority of their territory, despite significant setbacks.
Of course, vatniks have no ability to think critically about what the definition of "victory" actually means, so when they sacrifice 4000 men and a few hundred million worth of armor and aircraft to sieze a city which serves no practical purpose having been leveled with artillery, they call it a win for Russia because "durrr we own more clay than we did yesterday!".
If the norks tried to storm Seoul and spent half their ordnance to only walk away with some uninhabited islands and border villages, no sensible person would regard them as having "won" anything given the price they paid. Applying that logic to Russia is even more moronic given that prior to all this they still had the capability to use their perceived warfighting ability as a deterrent.
This war all ties back to one big problem for Russia.
It is Putin. He has cultivated such an image of macho strength, he is psychologically incapable of backing out of a bad situation if it damages his pride and ego. He's a gambler who doubles-down, no matter how bad his hand is.
And that is why Ukraine can actually bring him down. Russia has cultivated a mass hysteria about "Muh Anti-Nazi Campaign" for months. You have any idea what would happen to Putin if Ukraine bested the Russians in battle?
>if Ukraine bested the Russians in battle
exactly what happened after the withdrawal from northern ukraine. absolutely nothing.
>Who is winning
Israel
>Who is losing
The American tax payer
so you admit putin works for israel?
I admit you have sex with men
your mother is a man?
If that is the case, you frick trannies. Average Ukraine supporter.
the judgement of a self admitted israeli puppet and self proclaimed descendant of trannies means nothing to me
Nah my taxes are finally being put to good use
Hunter Biden is winning
CHINA.
What I don't understand is the indignant attitude of the Russians over the Ukrainians defending themselves. If you want to stop dying frick off it's that simple. People don't owe you shit head fealty or anything else. You are just another hoard from the steppes coming to frick with people and even if you weren't they obviously don't want you there therefore you have no right to be there. You are the exact douchebags you accuse others of being. Get your heads out of your asses and coup your leader before you really lose anything worth having in your nation.
Russia is basically the abusive relative outraged the person he victimizes is now fighting back.
For this reason, Ukraine should win back ALL its territory. Crimea can rot in its own special hell.
Agreed. The West needs to stop b***hing and COMMIT to the fricking cause.
Paraphrasing the recent Royal United Services Institute on how can Ukraine can turn things around (Watling & Reynolds).
Ukraine is going to need four things to out and out win---
A simplified and massively expanded supply chain from the West. We can't keep sending them hundred different types of equipment. We need to send them a few key systems
>Massive numbers of MLRS systems
>Effective air defense systems to prevent Russian cruise missile strikes
>Anti radiation seekers for loitering munitions to target Russian electronic warfare capability
>A multiple country training program to train up Ukrainian troops
>Many, many more IFVS to protect troops from artillery
Each of these things, the west has been doing piecemeal but we need to go whole hog
Cont'd->
You are a bunch of jingoistic armchair militaries and you have been consistently wrong for months already. Why should anyone listen to anyone's opinion on this board?
the most wrong i've ever been is when i thought russia would win LOL in two weeks mo less LMAO it's so embarrassing i actually thought kyiv would fall ROFLMAO
We said Russia's northern offensive was stretched thin and that it would collapse and it did.
We've been laughing at the poor performance of the Russian military which has been proven over and over at this point.
I dont even like Russia, I just want them to win so that these fricking europoor war tourists will leave this fricking board and we can actually go back to being a weapons board instead of a Ukraine board.
>Want Russia to win
So Russia can invade some other place and the whole thing starts again?
Kazakhstan is the next
Ah, the number one exporter of potassium.
>Russia is incompetent and could never take Ukraine
>Russia could immediately start bulldozing other countries if they beat Ukraine
Which one is it, europoor?
They could be if they win and get all the shit west has pushed into Ukraine and ukrainean manpower.
Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, maybe even the Republic of Korea if another dumbfrick prez wins 2024 and repeals the USFK Mutual Defense Clause.
Baltics are unlikely to be directly attacked for another five years at the least.
Belarus is probably going to be fully annexed though. Russia is pissed that Lukashenko isn't committing any military detachments to the invasion. Kazakhstan might meet a similar fate.
Be hilarious if Ukraine rode to Belarus's rescue, lol.
Same, I just want Ukraine to win so that these fricking europoor war tourists will leave this fricking board and we can actually go back to being a weapons board instead of a Russian vs Ukraine board.
Is it it just me or does EVERY single aspect of this conflict seem to, by design, be to some social-media-friendly stuff designed to make people in countries that matter have a picrel reaction while being distracted from the bullshit their WEF leaders are doing at home?
It's just this non-stop string of buzzfeed tier shit like
>ZELENSKY ANNIHILATES CRITICS WITH THIS ONE WEIRD TRICK
I'm not seeing that, it's a very real war with pain and death on a scale that hasn't been seen in Europe for decades.
~~**~~
>replying to low effort /misc/cel post
I'm curious what kind of weird media bubble you exist in.
The Russians took 90% of the land they occupy in the first few days of the war when they rolled through uncontested. They may end up taking the rest of Donetsk but I doubt it. This means they won't even be able to achieve their diminished cope objective let alone taking the whole country like they wanted. It's generally easier to defend than attack so they should be able to hold most of their gains unless the west sends some more serious weapons. So essentially the war is over what you see now is what the territorial control going forward will look like because neither side has enough strength to attack and take territory anymore.
Ukraine will eventually have the strength to push the Russians back. But it's going to take time.
Hence Ukraine should relentlessly attack the Russian Artillery Ammo Supplies.
>So essentially the war is over what you see now is what the territorial control going forward will look like
Nah, borders will be decided after military defeat of one side.
>so who is actually winning
The military industrial complex
Russia lost the moment they crossed the boarder. They have been exposed as a paper tiger, Sweden and Finland joined NATO, easy Intel on Russian weaponry and tactics, their economy is in shambles, the world keeps moving forward leaving Russia in the past, nobody likes Russia.
This is what every Russian shill fails to recognize. Not a single inch of occupied territory will be recognized any anyone but maybe Syria. Russia will remain sanctioned and become a 3rd world tier pariah state.
>Not a single inch of occupied territory will be recognized any anyone but maybe Syria
oh no. that would be a tragedy on the scale of say, Taiwan. however would russia cope?
Jesus you're moronic. Everyone sidesteps calling Taiwan an independent country from China but they're still recognized as a defacto sovereign state. No one but China actually disputes Taiwan's existence, every country but Syria disputes Russia's clay grab.
Also I'm not sure Russia has thought this through.
If the Separatists are "not Russians" (so they have plausible deniability when they execute those British POWs), what stops the West from declaring war on the "Separatist Republics" again?
Again why Ukraine just needs to keep fighting, patiently waiting for the right moment. The sanctions only last as long as the war does.
Putin is in a damn hurry to win. Refuse any deals that do not involve handing over all territory back to Ukraine.
who the frick cares?
Russia isn't losing and won't be thrown back from their gains any time soon but they've sacrificed entirely too much for what little success they've had.
The desperate coping in here is something else. Russia has been doing nothing but winning over the last 3 months. The only time Ukraine takes back a small portion of land is only after Russian leave to send reinforce a different part of the front. Ukrainian ability to produce ANY kind of offensive is almost zero. Their strategy appears simply to try and degrade Russian logistics until the invasion collapses from lack of supply. That's ridiculous given how close they are to the border with an intact rail and road network pulling in from stockpiles of HUNDREDS of MILLIONS of shells. Russian industry is trash but it's enough to make TRUCKS and rail cars. Meanwhile Ukrainian military industry is mostly destroyed. Meanwhile Russia retains air superiority. Meanwhile Russian troops retain offensive capabilities. Meanwhile the pro-Russian territories with more being fast-tracked into Russia as we speak, have been emptied out of men to absorb the brunt of infantry fighting. Meanwhile Ukranian front lines are just guys in shallow trenches with almost zero fire support, no cav and no airborne. No nothing.
That's the reality of this cripple fight. One cripple is better off than the other. I'm REALLY sorry but that's what's going on right now.
Post economy
>Lose 40000 men a good portion being your limited supply of professional soldiers, thousands of vehicle, expend all of your modern ordinance, and become an international pariah who's driven nominally neutral countries into the arms of your "rivals" all to barely cling to a bombed out cratered patch of land with the economic potential of West Virginia
>Nothing but winning
8/10
>Russia has been doing nothing over the last 3 months.
fixed
>The desperate coping in here is something else. Russia has been doing nothing but winning over the last 3 months.
if that were true this would have been over 2 months ago. russia just fricking blows at this.
>Russian industry is trash but it's enough to make TRUCKS and rail cars.
but not pallets?
> Meanwhile Ukranian front lines are just guys in shallow trenches with almost zero fire support, no cav and no airborne. No nothing.
then why is russia having such a horrible time?
>with the economic potential of West Virginia
lets not stoop to hyperbole anon, WVA aint that poor.
Western economies will collapse soon, any aid to Ukraine will cease, and Russia will simply not stop the war. In the end, it cannot lose. The invasion has not been pulled off flawlessly but it triggered the fall of global dominoes and will be considered a genius move by future generations.
Quality bait
I am a newbie and I consoom reddit and twitter therefore Ukraine are winning.
russia already abandoned their initial objectives, they lost by their own definition.
only giga coper morons would claim "winning" is: a primitive landgrab (as if russia didn't have enough land already) while at the same time turning ukraine into the most hostile country towards russia, that's also now aligned with nato, plus 2 new nato members
>Win
It's going to be a stalemate on the borders roughly established now.
Russia's armoured divisions have been decimated and Ukraine barely had any to begin with, neither possess the capability to launch sweeping offensives over large stretches of land.
Only if Ukraine is stupid enough to fight fair.
Ukraine needs to fight dirty and just hit the soft underbelly of the Russian military, depriving Russia of the supplies it needs to continue to fight.
Got that new new orc massacre shits bussin fr fr no cap
>lol wtf brosss coud Russia actually... be winning?
No.
Russia has already won
The champions of Pride and pronouns will be meeting their fate very shortly
That depends on what putins aims are. And no one knows that. Most likely not even monkey himself.
I still don't even know what this war is about or why it's happening.
Seems like Russia is winning.
>Is it SlavBlack person A or SlavBlack person B?
Neither. The only winner is Poland and by extension the EU seeing that Russia is basically a non-threat. But USA theoretically lost the mythical "muh Russia" bogeyman due to incompetence, but realistically the public can still be scared by "muh Russia" because they don't know how incompetent the conflict and losses have been.
>DAE le both sides?!
I hope you get your snowBlack person ass conscripted, kacap.
What the frick is kacap?
Ask your manager, Olga.
Don't have a manager. Gets pretty old when the only comeback you morons have is accusing me of being a variety of slavBlack person or having any skin in this moronic shitflinging contest. How much are you paid for each post?
>Now let me talk about myself
You're a neglected embarrassment, and this is the only way you can get people to talk to you. Go be sad somewhere else.
Ill add on to this, the only this russia is winning is showing yet again they are willing to expend vast parts of their military to completely take over a studio apartment size of land (looking at you georgia invasion) every 5-10 years. by this pace they will control the world in another 1000 years
Russia is winning
I mean does losing a third of the country qualifies as "winning"?
It's probably gonna be much more once Russia finishes off the densely populated donbass
Hold on, didn't they start with much more territory than they have now? How did you manage to become such an embarrassment?
As it stands, things are mostly a stalemate in terms of land possessed but time only goes against Russia's favor. Some of their best men and weapons gone, not going to be replaced (and they refuse to commit to full mobilization.) While Ukraine takes losses but gets both new equipment and cycles soldiers through training. So long as the defender's will to fight holds, they are winning.
Best case scenario for Russia is to hope Ukraine settles for some kind of treaty with heavy concessions of land and military- but the fact this war happened shows that any such agreement would just be used by Russia to rebuild forces and try again. So Ukraine has little to lose by continuing the fight. Even if Russia were to pull back to occupied territories, if Ukraine wants to keep fighting then there's not much Russia can do. There will be no clean withdrawal and claim of victory.
I would even argue at this point Russia could take over all of Ukraine, and they will wouldn't have "won" anything.
Ukraine must keep fighting. Russia cannot be trusted and they'll use any ceasefire to try again later. Ukraine just has to wear Russia down by dismantling their logistical infrastructure, especially their depots and trains (the latter of which they cannot replace as they're too dependent on import parts).
/k/ will never vote liberal. Frick Russia. Trump 2024
nobody is really winning but ukraine is doing well in holding russia off.
it seems russia hasn't changed much of its military strategy in the past 100 years, especially since victory to then still means losing all their men, resources, and worsening their populations gender gap
>nobody is really winning but ukraine is doing well in holding russia off.
This.
Russia would have to be able to take all of Ukraine to win (as they'd planned to do in 3 days) and that's not happening even in the wildest, krokodil induced dreams of herr manlet.
For Ukraine to win they have to come out of this with their territory intact and economy functional again. And getting rooting Russians out or restarting as anything else than post-WW2 rubble in the east of the country is also fairly unrealistic.
Both sides are losing tons of people and billions in equipment and lost economic productivity. But Ukraine is still holding on while Russia is tanking its reputation with everyone around them (Finland and Sweden got into NATO, Kazachstan already gave them the finger, Chinese don't answer the phone and Azrbaijan bayraktared themselves a little more of Armenia) and all of its arms sales by displaying unimaginable feats of blundering their gargantuan advantage in every field imaginable.
Both sides are walking out losers, but Russia is going to lose more.
I think Russia is going to win and I think Russia is going to capture half of Poland.
a
Well, Russia did have some setbacks, but if it manages to fix the logistics, the rampant corruption, the decay of their vehicles, the incompetence and the rape such as the alcoholism then I do think they could stand a chance.