Sir-Gay Suck-a-Dickn'

Serious Question: if Surovikin remained in charge and the "offensive" never happened AND the Russkies only did defense over the winter like he planned, would their chances have been better overall?

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  1. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    no

  2. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    if that had happened ukraine wouldn't be planning an offensive and would instead start a months long begging campaign for western airplanes. russias chances of holding on to what they had would be pretty high for the time being

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      I'm wondering if Russia could have potentially pushed forward with an offensive or at least a grinding assault in the summer after his "line" had been solidified and he still had the bulk of the new mobiks and armor ready to go. Sort of like a redux of what Russia did last year in Luhansk but in Donetsk/Zaporizhia instead.

  3. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Their chances of holding on to the Donbas would have been better overall. That doesn't mean that they would have won, since it is still likely that the situation was too fricked for Russia even when Surovikin took charge. Prior to the war, NATO had assumed that if Russia did invade one of its neighbors, Russia's most effective tactic would have been to invade a chunk of territory, dig in, and make it too costly for their opponent to take back (ie exactly what Surovikin had planned) so make of that what you will.

  4. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    His problem was production couldn’t keep up with demand. Destroying infrastructure is a total no brainer, but the campaign was so slow the Ukraine, due to the massive western support, just rebuilt everything before the next wave. There were downtimes and hardships but in the end the storm was weathered because the supply of drones and missiles ran out. This is why he lost his job. He just wasted ammo because production capabilities were too low, something a general should know before starting such a campaign. For some reason all higher ups in almost all militaries are total dumbfricks, most likely because they never participated in the economy in any management position. They just had everything readily available because all the yes men around them made sure they did. They never developed an economic understanding of any kind.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Indeed. I was more concerned with the Donbass and ground operations there, where Surovikin planned to wage a defensive rather than offensive war and wait until summer to do anything while the mobiks trained and armor was mobilized. However, you definitely bring up a good point with the strategic bombing angle, which was why he was sacked.

  5. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Any chance the Russians had to achieve victory in Ukraine evaporated when they chose to remain on the offensive after Kiev. If they had stopped, immediately switched to a purely defensive posture, and mobilized the reserves in April, 2022, they might have made things painful enough for the Ukrainians that things like retaking Crimea would be off the table. They blew so much of their remaining load first on Sievierodonetsk and now Bakhmut that it's made holding onto even what they controlled before February, 2022 virtually impossible.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      I fondly remember the bilohorivka river crossing.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        We all do anon, we all do.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        even worse, the disastrous battle of Vuhledar has basically long surpassed even the great PONTOOOOONING in terms of equipment losses.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          And avdiivka has since surpassed vuhledar.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Not quite.
      You forget that their propaganda machine is still in overdrive and that victory to a vatnik means just getting to spread his misery.
      And since we're not going to see any massive anti-KGB purges even if we experience the second collapse of the USSR, they still would not have lost.

      You have to remember that you're dealing with people who would unironically say "I didn't want Moscow anyway. But our guy got in power in France/UK/Slovakia/Wherever, so you loose."

  6. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Wars are lost or won before they start, so no. Russia was always going to lose this war, which is why it was so mindbogglingly unreal that they actually went through with it. 10000% moron move.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      What about WW1 though? That shit was anyone's game until 1917

  7. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    According to many Russian analysts it would be even worse

  8. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Yes. He correctly realized that Russia needed to wait out western attention by keeping things static and boring, and more important Russia needs to come to the negotiating table with a strong hand. If Russia could hold onto Donbas+landbridge and a bit extra, they’d have that hand. God knows how the negotiations would have gotten, but at a certain point war weariness sets in even for Ukrainians if nothing is moving in either direction. Then, theoretically, Russia can take the rest at a later date. Would anyone really have been willing to keep the war up over the democratic morons republics+crimea?
    You can disagree with this assessment, I’m not convinced it’s correct, but it’s a whole hell of a lot more realistic and doable than
    >win because we must win.
    >attack by attacking
    >win by winning

  9. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    It would have taken quite a bit longer, and the West's appetite to give more aid would likely have been drastically reduced, since it would look a lot more to their intelligence agencies that the war would devolve into a stalemate. Possibly leading to them telling Zelensky to get to the negotiating table.

    Not saying it would have happened that way; more than likely, the counteroffensive would STILL happen, but there'd be a much larger casualty figure for the Ukies. Even a dumb Ork fires a lucky missile into an ammo cache every now and then.

  10. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Michael Kofman was explaining on his podcast that the Russian winter offensive was a gift to Ukrainian forces.
    If Russia had waited till May to launch offensives, the Ukrainians would have had to wait for them to make the first move, losing the initiative.
    Russia may have also been more capable of successful local offensives, complicating Ukrainian plans.
    The plan to attack was political, not strategic.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      As all things are in Russia. Hence why Sergay Basedgu is still in charge after forver.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        Frick I forgot you can't say S-O-Y on here without it turning into based

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      This. It played exactly into what Ukraine wanted. If you had put a Ukrainian in charge of the Russian army, the worst thing he could have done was:

      1. Sent undertrained, under equipped troops to assault entrenched Ukrainians.

      2. Wasted missiles on non strategic and non military targets

      3. Failed to cause any significant strategic problems for ukraine.

      4. Given Ukraine time to train and equip with western military hardware.

      Russia made all the moves Ukraine would have paid them to make.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        The human trickle attacks may go down as one of the biggest blunders ever (even ignoring how evil they are morally). You send squads of 8 men across open terrain to attack Ukie trenches and when they die send more. Never a critical mass, and they expect all of them to die. How many thousands of covicts and mobiks died this way? How much equipment ammo, and grenades were wasted on this? Russia banned Wagner from prisoner recruitment, and for a government as amoral as Russia they won't do that on humanitarian grounds but because it is a complete waste. We won't know until post-war when there's leaks to see how many tens of thousands died in Bakhmut.

        Even more interesting I thought would have been the fact that Russia would still have the bulk of it's mobiks ready to go after far mroe months of training and experience. Of course, it doesn't matter when your lower level officers and strategy is dogshit, but it could have had an impact on the war, especially if Russia tried in summer instead of Winter to get the rest of Donbas/Zaphorizhia.

        Ukraine would have been forced to attack over winter to keep up momentum and disrupt training of mobiks. At basically every point of this shitshow Russia's best move has been to do nothing but they can't help themselves.

        It sounds like Russia split mobiks into two groups: one for training, and the other to the front to die. what a frickin waste. God bless all those smart enough to high tail it out of Russia when they got their notices.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          Seriously. The fricking Chinks of all people did a critical mass strategy similar to this but way more effectively in Korea 70+ years ago.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          Spokesman for the eastern army group Col. Cherevaty said a month or so back 100,000 pidors were put down to never rise again in and around Bakhmut.

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            The numbers Ukraine reports are too nuts that I don't want to believe them and I don't want to just critically accept their numbers without confirmation. But there's indications that a LOT of Russian forces died in Bakhmut:

            1. Videos show tactics of "human trickle" attacks for months on end with usually 8:1 fatalities ratio.
            2. Wagner boss spazzing out, shifting blame, and positioning himself for a potential loss. The thinking is that he's mostly running out of men (and Wagner had tens of thousands plus tens of thousands more convicts).
            3. Banning Convict recruitment outright.
            4. The 1 tank parade in Russia point to absolutely catastrophic equipment losses.

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            The numbers Ukraine reports are too nuts that I don't want to believe them and I don't want to just critically accept their numbers without confirmation. But there's indications that a LOT of Russian forces died in Bakhmut:

            1. Videos show tactics of "human trickle" attacks for months on end with usually 8:1 fatalities ratio.
            2. Wagner boss spazzing out, shifting blame, and positioning himself for a potential loss. The thinking is that he's mostly running out of men (and Wagner had tens of thousands plus tens of thousands more convicts).
            3. Banning Convict recruitment outright.
            4. The 1 tank parade in Russia point to absolutely catastrophic equipment losses.

            However many were lost, it was too many. Russia still hasn't taken Bakhmut and with recent reversals it seems possible they never will.

            • 1 year ago
              Anonymous

              It's possible they keep taking around the town, trapping anyone inside. They would then have to withdraw or face encirclement.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Ukraine would have been forced to attack over winter to keep up momentum and disrupt training of mobiks. At basically every point of this shitshow Russia's best move has been to do nothing but they can't help themselves.

  11. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    The Russians lost and everything after that is about finding out how much territory they can keep. His plan is the most rational and conserves Russian forces instead of endless suicide attacks in Bakhmut and elsehwere. Russia and Wagner lost ens of thousands of convicts and their best troops in Bakhmut alone.

    Never let dictators micro-manage wars, they always do stupid shit. Putin clearly wanted all of the Donbass captured, and that meant going through Bakhmut.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Even more interesting I thought would have been the fact that Russia would still have the bulk of it's mobiks ready to go after far mroe months of training and experience. Of course, it doesn't matter when your lower level officers and strategy is dogshit, but it could have had an impact on the war, especially if Russia tried in summer instead of Winter to get the rest of Donbas/Zaphorizhia.

  12. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    They'd be even better off without the missile campaign against civilians. All these needed to do was mobilize, train the mobilize, and dig in. Hold onto what they've got and hope the West loses interest, which may have happened in such a scenario. But Putin has made exactly the wrong call at every juncture this whole idiotic war.

  13. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    General Butt-Frickin' was the one who organized a retreat to more defensible positions.

  14. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    What was his name again?

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Sergey Surovikin. Considered to be the only good Russkie general.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      General Murder-Rape

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Corporal Calamity

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      General Arma gettin’ outta here!

  15. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >spills spaghetti and uses all the missiles
    >gets fired

  16. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    He seems to have half a brain, which is half more than what the rest of their command has. Lost face by sacrificing Kherson but a far more pragmatic decision than letting the Ukies blow the bridges and begin total Vatnik death. Maybe Russia doesn’t win either way but Surovikin would extend the war and NATO support might taper off if Russia can effectively defend it’s territorial gains.

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