>Russians are dug in very heavily
>Ukraine will have a SUPER hard time breaking through these defenses, even with all the new equipment
Does this assumption really hold water?
As far as I have seen, these defense lines are basically WW1-style trenches. Even by the end of WW1 trench warfare wasn't all that effective, and by WW2 it was already obsolete because of tanks, mortars and aircraft.
Even in Ukraine, Wagner broke through Ukrainian trench lines near Bakhmut, without any armored formations, just using artillery and human wawes.
So I am skeptical if these trench lines alone will have a significant effect on the effectiveness of Russian defenses against Ukrainian tank formations and mechanized infantry.
Path to Moscow looks pretty open
Ukraine should be sieging and flattening Belgorod right now.
That would be the perfect scenario, a huge mobilization wave due to invasion for Putin, and cut off supplies for Ukraine due to them breaking the agreement with US. Bruh, you are so smart, are you a real general?
no we want, the vatniks will retreat just like they did before. these super long trenches are unmanned.
They're bait
just like kherson was?
its not about the trenches.
the defense revolution is because of the ISR strike revolution.
recon is so powerful now that defenders can see attacks coming.
artillery can use that recon to engage an attacking force within seconds.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/ending-the-ideology-of-the-offense-part-ii/
I hate this moronation that's sprung up lately.
The only good defence is still a better offence, surprise and flanking is still highly effective, also, because you can use artillery and aircraft to fight artillery and aircraft. Generally being in a defensive position means they know where you are, quick defensive reaction forces will also be as neutralised in the scenarios proposed.
The only arguable thing that is getting weaker is direct assaults, but that doesn't mean they're totally useless or that they cannot be effective.
The only thing that really changed is the change towards automated warfare. The half human-drone spotter concept will not stick around for that long, we're about to head into being fast and bypassing the dying humans sitting in holes being useless phase of war.
Ukraine had a lot of trouble advancing in Kherson, and that's where Russia had plenty of logistical problems and wasn't nearly as fortified as this.
Trench warfare has always been beatable through infantry charges; 1915-17 Western Front was defined by hugely bloody yet successful attacks that couldn't be reinforced quickly enough to prevent a successful counterattack. What broke the stalemate was new tactics on the German side- stormtroopers and their 'lines of least resistance' tactic- and new technology on the Allied side - improved communication between observers and artillery to provide creeping barrage that block reinforcements.
Russia has had success with mass assaults and artillery barrage, and Ukraine has had success with spoiling those mass assaults and barrage through HIMARS and clever defense. Ukraine has only retaken territory when the Russians have abandoned it; they don't have the manpower to lose in mass assaults and they don't have the artillery to plaster the Russians, so unless they get air superiority, a bunch of CAS, and/or every remaining artillery shell in NATOs armory, the Russian trench lines should be sufficient to hold back what the Ukrainians have
That being said, the Ukrainian HIMARS have been very effective against Russias logistical train, so as long as their missile supply holds out they might be able to besiege the Russian positions and force a retreat. I've given up being surprised at the possibility of Russia fricking up
Russia can only hold the line because they reduced their defense line length and concentrate forces in Donbass thus coping with their inability into maneuver warfare. Russian 2000 km border with Ukraine (including Belarus) is defended with token force, Ukrainians can easily take Kursk or Minsk they don't do it because of the political implications and political leash their Westerns supporters hold.
How does that contradict anything in the post you absolute mongoloid?
Ziggers might be dug in but some of these areas have frick all ziggers defending them.
I'll wait and see, I don't want to be too optimistic. I do hope the western tanks will be enough for Ukraine to be even more effective as they were in Kherson and and Kharkiv though.
Trench warfare will never be obsolete you absolute nonce. As long as dirt keeps stopping bullets, trenches are always a good option. We have hundreds of new man portable and truck portable tools for constructing trenches as well as static defensive structures.
With the advent of kamikaze drones, loitering munitions, improvised consumer drone weapons- and the increased length of time necessary to train and equip soldiers, ever increasing demands on military manufacturing. The slow procurement of countermeasures.
Anti tank weapons have squarely caught up to armored vehicles and tanks. With extensive long range anti air systems paired with MANPADS, large aircraft are vulnerable to air coverage.
If you do not posses high tech stealth and countermeasures to AA then you cannot leverage your air force in modern warfare. When both sides suffer this, everything you mentioned as making trenches "obsolete" comes back as a major factor and THIS is why there is so much trench fighting in Ukraine.
Trenches answer the question of "What do I do in the time between large offensives and maneuvers?" specifically in a battlefield with these variables.
holy redit
You're a reddit.
Would releasing a swarm of earthworms into the Russian trench network help weaken it sufficiently to allow our weapons to penetrate it. Or better still, precipitate a collapse without firing a shot?
Anti tank mines work well too, if you've been paying attention to war footage. So we've got an abundance of anti air and anti tank weapons, drones can instantly spot enemy charges and probing attacks, with good tools you can have good trenches built in a fraction of the time, their defensive capability is limited only to the time you have to build them... you're getting pounded with artillery and mortars and rocket artillery and more artillery and scoped out with drones. A good trench in a good spot with ideal supply lines designed by professional combat engineers is extremely difficult to break through.
Even improvised poorly supplied trenches can hold against poor odds- as seen in the most recent and /k/ino Ukrainian war footage.
my idea you can have it for free
Ukraine already tried crossing around that area numerous times.
Most didn't even reach the shoreline before getting BTFO.
russia wants a forever war but we'll see
if Ukraine can't do an offensive in the next 6 months then they're in trouble
Why would you think Russia wants a forever war? Russia wants a subdued Ukraine. The people pumping resources into Ukraine want a forever war
>Why would you think Russia wants a forever war?
.. because Putin fricked up and its either sacrificing any number of Russian children he must to stay alive for two more weeks or death
That's not a forever war. Grow a brain
Russia knows they can't survive a forever war and this war isn't static. Russia wants a quick white peace. Ukraine may not accept a peace without the return to at least Minsk2 borders. Ukraine may not even accept losing Crimea.
Putin probably won't lose power, although a massive Russian balkanization post-putin death.
>Why would you think Russia wants a forever war?
Russia is militarizing its primary schools. That's a bit of a hint.
Preparing for one and wanting one are extremely different. Amd what's your source on that? An anti-Putin Russian defector living in Berlin?
They're perfectly capable of doing an offensive right now if they wanted to.
The only question is wether or not they have what it takes for it to succeed.
If they don't inflict some devastating territorial losses on Russia in the next 6 months it's game over btw.
They won't be able to emass this amount of equipment and ammo to try again next spring/summer and will be dreadfully low on men by then.
Fatigue will set in as the impossibility of kicking the Russians out becomes increasingly apparent even to many of the fanatics.
If Russia can just hold onto what it has for another year or so they'll win.
It might not be an ideal victory or what they planned for, but a victory none the less.
>Does this assumption really hold water?
with enough smart bombs we can reduce entire Russian force into dust bunnies without ever exposing anyone to enemy fire
>When automated spotter drones and super fidelity sats spot your entire defense and the only things that survives the opening assault are people in small bunkers (that will die soon to drone swarms) and things too far away to be cost effectively attacked till the assaultee moves up for the next wave.
By Ru estimates, they've got 150 [soldiers] per km. Sure, terrain and strategic fortification, but there'll be sections of the front line where Ru will have to make difficult decisions re falling back and reinforcement. Ukr just need to push appropriately, watch carefully, and wait for a frickup to exploit.
It's worse than that in some places. Zigger channels reported single BTGs defending about 40km of the front in one area.
considering they haven't used BTGs for months i question this
A minefield is still dangerous and so is a moblik in a foxhole who is lucky enough to have an AT-weapon. Everything is dangerous to infantry even if you have life-saving helmet and body armor.
But I doubt that most of the fortification is competently manned and is likely exploitable along most of its length. Exploitable but still dangerous.
The Russians don't have enough troops to man all of their fortifications. A lot of those trench and strongpoints are very lightly manned. If the Ukrainans can suppress Russian artillery, and continue to keep the VKS out of the game, they can punch through. It's going to take a lot of coordination though, and Ukraine hasn't pulled off a true combined arms offensive yet.
>Russian SU-34 accidently dropped their payload over Belgorod
>Russia literally bombing their own cities
You can't make this shit up
Trenches are death traps when they get broken through and the shoulders get rolled up.
Flanked on three sides and nowhere to run.
Mobile reserves are far more important. The trenches can be useful for slowing and directing breakthroughs, buying you time to blunt the enemy's advance. If the Russians don't have the ability to stop the breakthroughs the Ukrainians can rapidly cut off the defenders.