realistically, how wide of a front do they need to make to be able to keep it if they want to push to the water and close the land bridge?
that green like is roughly 160km
realistically, how wide of a front do they need to make to be able to keep it if they want to push to the water and close the land bridge?
Once Tokmak and its rail lines are under control the main strategic goal is essentially achieved. I expect it will take 2-3 weeks to get there and if the Russians fail to efficiently withdraw and the encirclements go into deep operations then 1-2 weeks for a push to Berdyansk
>two more weeks
Huh. I'm looking at the satellite map of the area and unless my shit eyes are missing something, there don't appear to be rail lines that go between Berdiansk and Melitopol directly. Everything on rail going into Crimea currently looks like it chokes up at Tokmak, not Melitopol like everyone was saying/assuming. Naturally, they'll want to take as much territory as they can, but taking Tokmak alone would have huge implications for the Russian supply situation in Kherson and Crimea. Frick, they don't even need to actually take Tokmak, they just need to take control of one of the small little towns with rail stations between Berdiansk and Tokmak to cut the line and force the Russians to supply troops in Melitopol and beyond by road.
What's the status on the Kerch bridge these days? Did they ever get the rail line reopened?
Correct. They don't even need to take Tokmak, getting close enough to disable the rail line would probably frick up the logistics badly.
Taking Melitopol would completely sever logistics as all roads converge there.
And how does this masterplan work when all of the conscripts are lying dead in their burning wunderwaffen in a field 100m from where they started?
>if a tank drives over a mine, it kills all the crew and the tank burns out
Remember, Russians always project
>Anywhere from 13 to 15 days
>once
mymy is mijn waifu
My big brained theory a month or so ago was they would head south like they are going to Melitopol and then turn hard west and pinch all the Russians along the Dnieper and link up with Kherson front pushing south with them. Obviously, this was before the whole dam fiasco but maybe that will make the Russian forces more willing to retreat to Crimea.
Ukraine already making good gains, according to RU sources as well
For a Pro-Ukrainian source, that was a more neutral overview than I was expecting. I'm almost kind of shocked to see them acknowledge that there were a few mistakes made initially and take measures to correct the problems. Looks like the group of disabled vehicles that's been plastered all over the board all day ran into a minefield and fricked up coordinating with their engineers.
Also looking forward to the kino night footage we'll apparently be getting if the reports of night attacks are accurate.
>fricked up coordinating with their engineers
But why given how much effort was put in planning the counter offensive?
Humans can make mistakes
Shit like that happens. For example the Allies spent literal years planning D-Day and there were still huge frickups in the early stages that were both within and completely out of their control, like troops landing on the completely wrong beaches.
Yep, the legendary Omaha beach wasn't even the right beach. Weather pushed the offensive off course and nobody bothered to correct it, landing them in a far more difficult section of a coastline than intended.
Then you of course have the Merville battery which only through sheer superhuman grit and balls of the unit involved didn't turn into a shitshow (All their demining equipment was dropped into a fricking swamp so they had to send a few lads on their hands and knees through a minefield and manually feel out the mines in the dead of night)
One small frickup leads to a greater frickup and so on.
>"No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces. Only the layman believes that in the course of a campaign he sees the consistent implementation of an original thought that has been considered in advance in every detail and retained to the end."
Helmuth von Moltke
The entire professional army is dead anon, now they are barely trained rabble with no officers driving a rag-bag of frankentanks and equipment that all need totally different upkeep and none of which they are trained for, to fix anything it has to go a thousand miles to Poland. They have a snowflakes chance in Hell and you're witnessing the fruits of what you've all been shilling for
Are you going to livestream you necking yourself in case you're wrong?
>The entire professional army is dead anon, now they are barely trained rabble with no officers driving a rag-bag of frankentanks and equipment that all need totally different upkeep and none of which they are trained for
True, if you're talking about Russia.
I remember when you said that a year ago
>But why given how much effort was put in planning the counter offensive?
>planning
D-D had *years* of planning with the benefit of the best intelligence frickery the Allies could muster, and
>it still got delayed by 24 hours
>still had the early morning bombing not be as effective as planned
>still had quite a clusterfrick unfold with the Airborne units' deployment
>still failed to take Caen, a Day 1 objective
among other things. And that was the machine of the Allies as well-oiled as it was by 1944.
The Ukrainian units involved are mostly green units first being blooded this week. There were bound to be frick-ups. They probably were hoping such frick-ups wouldn't wind up as propaganda smeared all over the internet, but that's the way the war is now.
"No plan survives first contact," and all that, yes, but more importantly green units will make frick-ups that they learn from, often times extremely painfully and at cost in life.
The real test now will be how fast Ukraine can establish supply lines and artillery superiority in the footholds they've established.
>Also looking forward to the kino night footage we'll apparently be getting if the reports of night attacks are accurate.
here
First-person footage shows Ukrainian soldiers storming Avdiivka with rifles
Russians are paying with a sea of blood
Ukrainian troops advance into Chasiv Yar
>Chasiv Yar
Tactical advantage of being needlessly vague, shifty and antagonistic with soldiers during a war? Strategic advantage of being a moronic boomer and staying in an active war zone?
I'm mostly shocked people weren't expecting green units to frick up in some way.
I mean its pretty frustrating the way they fricked up was by Vuhledaring themselves while caught in 4k, but the foreign trained units are presently learning a lot of lessons that cannot be learned in the academy.
Reporting from Ukraine is one of the better war resources of this whole thing because he's concise and direct and doesn't cheerlead. He's been as such for the duration, too, and he often covers and talks about the situation on the ground in, again, concise ways that I can't remember ever being wrong.
He's also very honest when Ukraine is having issues or getting fricked up. He also doesn't talk about the Russians as though they're entirely illogical, as their movements often has a logic behind them (even if that logic is sometimes more political in nature, while being bad for the battlefield).
>Ukrainians firing mines past the Russians to frick with reinforcements and troop movements.
That's pretty neat. Seems risky to do that in an area you're about to assault in the dark, though. Do they have any way to deactivate them, or is it just a matter of letting the engineers lead and clear a path?
Simple, just include an REO 2L 4 210 Speedwagon in the convoy blasting Sakkijarven Polka
That depends what mines they're using. France donated temporal mines to UKraine which auto-detonate after a period of time.
30km
600 tanks
There's no cause for serious concern.
so thats why wagner didnt get any shells even after getting on his knees
No panic and ass status?
>artillery coping
indeed
They're running out of shells yet again?
First we had Baghdad Bob, now we have Blyatman Vlad. "There is not cause for concern."
Anon the combined might of NATO can't even help them capture their own staging areas let alone a square foot of Novorossiya, you've seen two hohol armies destroyed and now the third one is getting wiped out just the same, it's time to stop coping
>THE SAME COLUMN