Putin's Fyre Festival

So Russia clearly was nowhere near prepared for this kind of war. Would the War have ended up any differently if Russia had spent one or two years prior to their invasion and mobilize for war time footing (mass conscription, huge funds to military buildup, essentially doing everything to prepare to invade with 5 to 1 numerical superiority). Supposing Putin pulled off an economic miracle and this didn't immediately cause a financial collapse.

Would anything have changed or would they still have lost?

  1. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I think the issue is they didn't expect Ukraine to get so much highly advanced and useful equipment.
    I think the only way Russia could have won is if they made a deal with China to "test out" their equipment. China has yet to prove all their toys are battle proven.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      They didn't expect Ukrainians to resist at all.
      >A few nationalists and people connected to the current regime? Sure.
      >But the overwhelming majority of the population? Russophiles, our brothers, just waiting to rejoi...
      >wait, why are these 60 y.o hunters shooting at our troops?
      >Why is this hipster with a pierced nose refusing to switch to russian when speaking to me? I cannot understand him!
      >Wtf, America turned you into an anti-russia! I cannot recognize you, ukraine! Oh well, one more reason to throw this iskander into that civilian center.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Pretty much this, putin wiped out everybody in russia that could oppose his regime and surrounded himself with yes men.
        And he actually started believing the bullshit they fed him.
        From his pov ukraine would collapse faster than they would invade, just look at the first russians units caught at outskirts of kiev, they were fucking roit cops.
        Russians were so convinced that they would face no opposition that they were already thinking about civil order in kiev after the ukriane goverment "ran away"

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          its pretty funny that russian military police got spammed with Javelins and at4s

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >mass conscription
        Would have led to riots and fucked up economy by removing fuck ton of young men from work force that had not done their conscript service. Pool of officers to lead the massive reserve based army hasn't existed for over decade when they started to reform their military into more professional system. Can't pull out all brigade and battalion level staff out of thin air and expect them to be competent. With more massive army their logistics would have likely been even bigger fuck up. Doing military reform back to mass army would have taken at least decade complete.
        >huge funds to military buildup
        Huge funds for buildup of equipment they can't produce due to lack of western components and tools. Huge build up would have required them do either design entirely new equipment, can't make it happen in 2 years. They couldn't have even modified existing stuff to new chink components and tooling and to be made in that time. Lack of tooling and components is why there is only handful of Armatas and Su-57. Basically almost all of their high end weapon projects have stalled since west imposed sanctions when they took over Crimea.

        >They didn't expect Ukrainians to resist at all.
        This.

        https://i.imgur.com/Sc3PcbK.jpg

        Pretty much this, putin wiped out everybody in russia that could oppose his regime and surrounded himself with yes men.
        And he actually started believing the bullshit they fed him.
        From his pov ukraine would collapse faster than they would invade, just look at the first russians units caught at outskirts of kiev, they were fucking roit cops.
        Russians were so convinced that they would face no opposition that they were already thinking about civil order in kiev after the ukriane goverment "ran away"

        This as well. Rosgvardiya getting fucked was hilarious.

        GMLRS and NLAWs are from the 2000's, and the Javelin didn't enter service until the early 1990's.

        Javelin mass production started in 1996, it also entered service that year. US military probably had enough launchers and missiles to do anything other than use those for training two or three years later. It is a system that got stuck into development hell in 80's when whole design concept turned out to be much harder to pull out than they had initially expected. End of Cod War leading to budget cuts probably didn't help either.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >China has yet to prove all their toys are battle proven.
      the thing about this for me is that, if china REALLY wanted to sell military hardware to russia & benefit off of this war, whether directly or through the norks, the west would almost certainly look the other way regarding sanctions or punishment because then they could capture chinese hardware. the logical explanation is that china has less faith in its own equipment than it does russian equipment.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        The more likely explanations is that the Chinese would want money up front. Real money, not rubles.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >much highly advanced and useful equipment
      NATO hand-me-downs from the 80s is advanced equipment?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        To Russians, yes.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        GMLRS and NLAWs are from the 2000's, and the Javelin didn't enter service until the early 1990's.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      So old Soviet stuff is advanced to modern Russia?

  2. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >Would the War have ended up any differently if Russia had mass conscription
    yes

  3. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    There would be riots in the streets if they did that. There’s an unspoken agreement between the government and the general populace, that the government can do whatever they please as long as they don’t start full scale draft. As long as government obliges, the public would support any war or atrocity

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      It's more like population will not be neither supporting or opposing, they will prefer tonot have anything to say about it and pretent that it is distant conflict that doesn't involve them as long Putin will not declare mobilization.

      This was Russians attitude to any war since Monkey took over.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      So pretty much like the US

  4. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Absolutely. As as been much remarked upon, Russia assumed a victory and half-assed everything, and by the time the realized they actually needed to try, it was too little, too late.

  5. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Lend lease to Ukraine hasn't even fucking started

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      (WW2)
      >A total of $50.1 billion (equivalent to $690 billion in 2020) worth of supplies was shipped, or 17% of the total war expenditures of the U.S.
      we've only just begun

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        If NATO gives Ukraine $690 billion of weapons, Zelensky will be ruling from Moscow.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Ah yes, a revived Soviet Union, a global superpower armed to the teeth, created thanks to Western support, ruled by a man who's not even Russian and was consided a joke before coming into power. History doesn't repeat, but apparently it rhymes.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            I can't believe Putin dream of SU coming back and being a superpower will still happen thanks to his actions, just not in the way he thought.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Why is that? The bill was signed on May 9 and some anona said it starts in october why is that? I was expecting ukrainian lend lease Abrams, Bradleys and F-16s by now

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        October is the start of the fiscal year for the US federal government

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >I was expecting ukrainian lend lease Abrams, Bradleys and F-16s by now
        Im pretty sure they are training on these already

  6. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Russia underestimated Ukraine, and Ukraine (US) overestimated Russia.

  7. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    *Aehm* Anon to be fair they did prepare for years, this is all they could muster and prepare and resupply (barely and not all). This is what Russia had to offer. Does not get better.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      This.
      Russia has been preparing since they took Crimea

  8. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    the problem is that it goes much deeper then just not enough dudes.
    for this war to have played out in putins favor he would have had to completly rebuild his military from scratch.
    by the time the war started everything was already so fucked by corruptions and a general lack of giving a fuck about being competent.
    meanwhile everyone feeding putin bullshit info.
    so do i think that more dudes would have made this possible?
    no it would have made it much much worse, imagine all the problems they had at the start but magnified 10 fold.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      yes,the window for a successful invasion closed years if not decades ago.the russians fondly look back at the soviet union because the non russians held everything together.this same thing was true even before the SU came into being.Catherine the great was born in prussia for example.
      Sophie first met her future husband, who would become Peter III of Russia, at the age of 10. Peter was her second cousin. Based on her writings, she found Peter detestable upon meeting him. She disliked his pale complexion and his fondness for alcohol at such a young age. Peter also still played with toy soldiers. She later wrote that she stayed at one end of the castle, and Peter at the other.[10]

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      While all you said is true, how do you explain Russia's successes in Syria and their battles against ISIS. Surely they had some military competency there, not to mention have successfully annexed Crimea in 2014. What was it that went so wrong with the invasion of 2022? It's like they forgot everything they were building up to

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        For one thing, Russia was in Syria as allies of the official Syrian govt and friends of Assad. For another, the greatest victories were when they were bombing the shit out of undefended oil tankers. Good job there, well done, but they could have achieved the same with double decker pilots throwing hand grenades.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >how do you explain Russia's successes in Syria and their battles against ISIS
        Russia is very good at fighting against people who have no realistic means of fighting back.

  9. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    bump cause threads like these cause vatnik butthurt

  10. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    They spent almost 10 years prepping this and acquired over $600 billion cash all for this. What you saw was in every possible way the best that they could hope to muster.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      But that's the case in point example of how their strategy failed so catastrophically badly. They spent the last 10 years preparing to fight/deter the West, with a major nuclear modernization program, building up massive foreign currency reserves to be able to withstand the sanctions, and focusing on weapons designed to counter the West or superweapons that would supposedly intimidate it, like those nuclear torpedo designs. That Ukraine would actually fight back and fight back effectively never really entered seriously into their thoughts, and so they went to war with a military catastrophically mismatched for fighting Ukraine. Not that they actually were ready to fight NATO as their performance shows lmao but if they had focused on preparing purely for conquering Ukraine they would have done a lot better.

  11. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Maybe. The fact of the matter is it is really hard to dominate a people that do not want to submit. Obviously if it came to total war, Russia could win by arraying its entire economy against Ukraine, but that's a wholly unrealistic proposition and even then success isn't guaranteed.

  12. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >So Russia are shit. Would they be winning if they were good?

  13. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The better question is how long and how badly will this humiliation cost them. Will they finally git gud? Or will they just cope and sneed and be too weak to even bother Uzbekistan? How much shit will get took from them by China? Time will tell.

  14. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Remember the first days of invasion. And how different it was.
    And remember how Zelensky looked like. People even thought he was drunk. The stress for him was high as fuck. I assume behind the scenes some 5D chess happens but we will know them only 30 years later. So yeah I guess we have expected Crimea 2.0 with Zelensky stepping back in instead of calling his Overlords for help.

  15. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >Supposing Putin pulled off an economic miracle and this didn't immediately cause a financial collapse.
    If Russia hadn't been Russia and Putin hadn't been Putin, yeah, I guess they might have won.
    Note this works for every historical war result.

  16. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    they would have won if they chose not to go full retard and attack the entire 2500km frontline at the same time with less than 250k troops. best shit got wiped out around kyiv and they lost all momentum.

  17. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >Would the War have ended up any differently if Russia had spent one or two years prior to their invasion and mobilize for war time footing
    Zelensky didn't mobilize the Ukranian Army until Russia actually invaded because he didn't think Russia would invade with the forces at hand. If Russia had twice as many troops and was clearly and visibly mobilizing, Ukraine would have mobilized as well and cities like Kherson and Melitopol wouldn't have been lost without a fight.

  18. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    bump

  19. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    theyve had 8 years to prepare how much longer did they need?

  20. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >2 years of mobilization buildup
    The glowies would've figured out what's going on 2 months in tops and reacted accordingly

  21. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Doesn't make any sense, the Russians invaded because they thought that the Ukrainians would just surrender and they would be welcomed as liberators There is speculation that Russian intelligence had been tasked with internally undermining the will to resist and preparing splinter and coup groups and so all you needed was a swift decapitation strike, but that apparently a lot of the money for this, in typical Russian style, was simply embezzled while the reports told Putin everything was going brilliantly )). If the Russians had realized that the Ukrainians would seriously resist and fight them then the entire logic of the invasion falls apart.

  22. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Ukraine wasn't prepared either. If we saw mobilisation, we'd be in a much better position beforehand.

  23. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Do be honest, they would still lost because it has so many levels of fucks up.

    >pre-invasion
    The whole invasion was based on misinformaton and blatant lies from the very top to the very bottom of both the military and FSB. They also had lied to themself via propaganda since 2014 and if you lie enough you will eventually believe on your own horse-shit. It wouldn't suprise me that their intelligence data from pre-invasion was just based on Zelenskyy's approval rate among the population(whichw as around 30% if I'm not correct), their ukrainian spies etc telling them what they want to hear as those too want Russia to interfere and their own succesful campaign for Crimea and Donbas. They literally thought they could swoop in and that their forces will be treated with smiles and flowers as they were in LPR/DPR. Putin and the rest of the leadership couldn't phantom that RuAF will be meet with such fierce resistance from all levels of the ukrainan society. Neither that Zelenskyy would stand on his post instead of fleeing. So they have prepared for exactly that, just go in and grap the power without a plan B as they were so convinced that Ukraine will just give up almost immediately.

    >corruption
    Russian army has always been notorious for its corruption, which regards all the ranks, if Putin had crack down on corruption and built up his army from scrath, maybe the outcome have been a little bit different. But the army is still the same as in the 70s, 80s, 90s and nothing have changed except those on the very top has gotten really rich. So when the army said that they were ready then they weren't.

    >why no mass conscription
    As another anon stated is that Putin and the government have more or less free hands to do whatever they like as long it wouldn't start to disturb the general population(aka Moscow and St Petersburg). So far nothing has really happened internally, it will happen sooner or later if Putin can't spin this around to a success. The future will tell.

  24. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    They would've still gotten their shit kicked in.
    We know from hindsight that the glowies know the Kremlin's plans better than probably even most Russian generals.
    Any Russian build up of troops, materiel, or development of capability would've been known by Ukraine. Western advice, training, and planning for Ukraine would've adjusted accordingly.
    There is no amount of prep that Russia could've gone through that would allow them to win if they can't solve the basic issue of the enemy knowing you better than yourself.

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