Yet Russia is still going despite all these losses? So either the losses are exaggerated or Russia is many times stronger than people think. Because otherwise Ukraine should be pushing Russians out of Ukraine by the hundreds of km a day, after all, they have no vehicles left!
Clearly not the case. Bradley's and a couple of Leo2's and Challenger 2's aren't going to make any difference either.
>stronger than people think
Throwing s̶h̶i̶t̶ mobiks at the w̶a̶l̶l̶ trenchlines isnt a show of tactical strength or cunning, but it is a very primitive and bruteforce way of making progress.
>Russia is many times stronger than people think
How can anyone say this with a straight face in Current Year? If Russia were "many times stronger than people think," it would be marauding the Alsace-Lorraine, because it would have already taken Ukraine (roughly as strong as predicted pre-war), Poland (stronger than people thought), and Germany ("many times stronger than people thought"). If it were just as strong as people thought, it would not currently, RIGHT NOW, be stuck in fricking Bakhmut. Russia is, in fact, much weaker than pretty much anyone thought in 2022. To take minor adjustments to that dramatic downward reevaluation of Russia's military strength as some kind of victory is preposterous.
Russia has more vehicles. Obviously. What's striking is that they have lost so many of the vehicles and men with which they started, and still can't claim any major victory for it.
Just to drive it home: say Russian military strength can be abstracted to the number ten, which represents a theoretical and completely make-believe Russian military most thought was capable of taking Ukraine in a few days before they actually tried it; then: >10 = a Russia which can take Ukraine >"many times more" than 10 = ~50 = taking Germany
This is obviously false, so let's revise our estimate downwards >10 = initial expectations = taking Ukraine easily
Uh oh! This is also wrong. Our initial valuation of Russian military strength must be downgraded still. Let's say "easily" scales with a factor of ten, then Russia's actual military power is 1... or probably less than 1, because 1 implies that victory has even been accomplished... which obviously it hasn't. Therefore Russia's actual military power is < 1. Let's say it's .7 or so, completely arbitrarily. This is the actual starting point from which you suggest Russia might be "many times" more powerful than thought. But we still have problems! If it were indeed many times more powerful than thought, wouldn't that mean victory is at least in sight? Why, then, are they still fighting for Bakhmut? It follows that Russia's military might must be orders of magnitude beneath what was originally called "10". If you are many times more than a minute fraction of your initially estimated power... what does it matter? We thought Russia's military power was 10; now we're wondering whether or not it is "many" multiples of 0.2 or 0.3 ... either way, it's not a good look, and to strike everything prior to Immediate Moment from your consideration is either wilfully disingenuous, ignorant, or both.
>Lose 10,000 vehicles in a little over a year >Keep going and lose another 10,000 to own the libs >Soon have no defense capabilities left >Changs move in
> Yet Russia is still going despite all these losses?
Depends. Does your definition of "still going" require objective measurement of non-trivial progress towards clearly and unambiguously stated goals?
Taking and holding every scrap of occupied territory for more than a few token months?
Significant forward advancement of the frontline over the past half a year?
Or are you setting the bar somewhat lower for the Second Military of the World in an invasion they chose to instigate, a couple hundred kilometers or so from their own land borders? > So either the losses are exaggerated or Russia is many times stronger than people think.
You seem to have overlooked a third explanation known as "sunk cost fallacy," and it explains the appearance of T-54/T-55 tanks far better than either of the two you proposed.
This is still wild to me.
They literally can't go further than this after
F O U R T E E N
M O N T H S
and 10,000 vehicles lost, and 1-200,000 casualties.
>Less than 100 miles >Day 400 of the Second Mexican American War and Blackwater chain gangs armed with 1903 Springfields and FT-17A7s are within 30 miles of Monterey
Everybody knew that Russia had shittons of old vehicles in deep storage. What has been proven wrong is the notion that Russia could leverage said massive material advantage and use it to win a war. After a year of war they are still struggling to advance a few metres fighting against fricking Ukraine, it's just surreal that for years people thought (and some morons continue to think) that Russia could stand toe-to-toe against NATO.
You don't because in the vatnik mind none of it ever happened, which is just as well because there simply doesn't exist enough industrial potential in Russia to replace that many tanks. Imagine laying to waste the entire arms bubble created by the USSR, squandering every tank destined for World War 3 on the fricking swamps of Ukraine. You cannot recover from this, it becomes a cultural scar that influences a people's decision making for generations.
Same thing happened for the entirety of the Soviet Union, every single family had at least one person hauled off to gulag or shot in a courtyard at midnight
You know what Russians did about it? Nothing
There have been anti-war protests all year, but what the frick can you do when the country has already pulled most stops to disarm the population? As a young person emigrating is a way better idea than trying to fix a failed state (and a lot of skilled workers, STEM graduates and others already did that).
>And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... >The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.
>You don't because in the vatnik mind none of it ever happened
Russians don't take personal responsibility for failures, they blame an external world of ~fate~ which is treated as hostile or at least not to be trusted, at best. Americans have the opposite problem, they blame themselves and feel ashamed even when the reasons are out of their hands, which makes them less likely to accept help from others, which partly goes into why the U.S. lacks a lot of basic stuff that Europeans take for granted. Russians are much more likely to accept aid and see no shame in it, but it also helps explain why Russia's neighbors don't wanna be dominated by a country full of people who are Russia-stronk-Orthodox-Leninist authoritarians on the outside but basically a bunch of closeted anarchists who feel no responsibility to anyone else on the inside. Fun!
>Americans have the opposite problem, they blame themselves and feel ashamed even when the reasons are out of their hands
Hey, frick you, not cool bro.
you restart t-34 production, it's this simple. new hulls could be totally domesticly produced, og steel quality wasn't great, so even melted cutlery will meet old standards. power unit won't be a problem either since you just have to swap the same v-2 they've been modernizing for 80 years. i'm sure they still have some frickton of 76mm ammo for main gun, and if not, just weld turrent ring with mg/gl/autocannon that happens to be laying around. there you go, brand new T-34 Obr. 2023
Russian, Chinese and American fly together in a plane. American throws out a Javelin. Russian and Chinese ask why have he done it.
-I have so many I can throw away some.
They fly further. Chinese suddenly throws out of the plane a phone.
-Why did you do it?
-I have many more at home.
Flight continues.
Russian gets up and throws out Tanks (1928, of which destroyed: 1169, damaged: 100, abandoned: 105, captured: 554)
Infantry Fighting Vehicles (2281, of which destroyed: 1474, damaged: 69, abandoned: 126, captured: 610)
Armoured Fighting Vehicles (827, of which destroyed: 518, damaged: 14, abandoned: 30, captured: 265)
Armoured Personnel Carriers (304, of which destroyed: 191, damaged: 8, abandoned: 12, captured: 93)
Command Posts And Communications Stations (240, of which destroyed: 150, abandoned: 3, captured: 87)
Self-Propelled Artillery (382, of which destroyed: 255, damaged: 15, abandoned: 7, captured: 105)
Multiple Rocket Launchers (191, of which destroyed: 129, damaged: 5, abandoned: 2, captured: 55)
Aircraft (79, of which destroyed: 71, damaged: 8)
Helicopters (81, of which destroyed: 70, damaged: 10, captured: 1)
Naval Ships (12, of which destroyed: 8, damaged: 4)
Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (2406, of which destroyed: 1759, damaged: 37, abandoned: 48, captured: 562)
>How do you recover from this?
They cant and wont. Russia is your typical corrupt slav shithole hyped up by boomers to excuse their large defense spendings.
In terms of money/material losses, the Russians are sufffering much worse than Ukraine. But they've started to learn from their mistakes, now they're buying Iranian suicide drones that are only $20k a pop, and the Ukrainians are wasting valuable missiles that cost 10-20x times more than these drones to shoot them down.
Ukraine needs to find a way to cheaply destroy these drones in order to win this war of attrition.
From what I understand, the AFU dusted off some old WWII ack-ack guns and discovered that they can down a cheapass no-frills Iranian drone loaded with HE even easier than, say, a Focke-Wulf Fw 190.
Who'd have guessed it? Everything old is new again.
> How do you recover from this?
That's the neat part: you don't. They don't have the economic resources/technological know-how to rebuild, let alone catch-up to countries with modern armies. This is their last hurrah: throwing all their heirlooms and inheritance into the fire.
all the fancy new guards unit tech stuff in the 1st year are there at least a few brigades of all that stuff in the moscow area to protect ..uh whatever? or is it ALL gone?
Terrorist Girkin said Puccia has enough gas in the tank for one more year, that's it. Then they have nothing left and are basically helpless to do anything to Ukraine.
Reserve wise they’re down to less than 1k T-72 they can further press into service. Another year with losses akin to last one and they’ll legit collapse as a modern mechanized force.
Honestly, if you were to go back in time to February 22nd, 2022, and you were told that Russia was for sure launching a full scale invasion of Ukraine
how many vehicles would you have guessed they would lose in total?
Meanwhile in reality NATO is depleted of arms and Russia is still advancing while the meme blue and yellow puppet state is on the brink of total collapse that will take half of europe with it.
it's gotta be exhausting sifting through all the double counts that vatBlack folk and r/ukraine redditors send in.
His work gets exponentially harder the more losses russia has. For every new entry he has to check all/most of the previous entries for that vehicle type to make sure it's not a dupe or a winter/summer phase of the same kill
[...]
His work gets exponentially harder the more losses russia has. For every new entry he has to check all/most of the previous entries for that vehicle type to make sure it's not a dupe or a winter/summer phase of the same kill
He said he's still doing it till he finds a different way to do the counts. If he doesn't he's giving up.
Say check my quads
Yet Russia is still going despite all these losses? So either the losses are exaggerated or Russia is many times stronger than people think. Because otherwise Ukraine should be pushing Russians out of Ukraine by the hundreds of km a day, after all, they have no vehicles left!
Clearly not the case. Bradley's and a couple of Leo2's and Challenger 2's aren't going to make any difference either.
Onions don't belong in a salad
Red onion is great in a salad. Only a vatnik would have such debased ideas about food
have a nice day moronic Black person
clearly youve never eaten one then, fat c**t
>stronger than people think
Throwing s̶h̶i̶t̶ mobiks at the w̶a̶l̶l̶ trenchlines isnt a show of tactical strength or cunning, but it is a very primitive and bruteforce way of making progress.
>Russia is many times stronger than people think
How can anyone say this with a straight face in Current Year? If Russia were "many times stronger than people think," it would be marauding the Alsace-Lorraine, because it would have already taken Ukraine (roughly as strong as predicted pre-war), Poland (stronger than people thought), and Germany ("many times stronger than people thought"). If it were just as strong as people thought, it would not currently, RIGHT NOW, be stuck in fricking Bakhmut. Russia is, in fact, much weaker than pretty much anyone thought in 2022. To take minor adjustments to that dramatic downward reevaluation of Russia's military strength as some kind of victory is preposterous.
Russia has more vehicles. Obviously. What's striking is that they have lost so many of the vehicles and men with which they started, and still can't claim any major victory for it.
Just to drive it home: say Russian military strength can be abstracted to the number ten, which represents a theoretical and completely make-believe Russian military most thought was capable of taking Ukraine in a few days before they actually tried it; then:
>10 = a Russia which can take Ukraine
>"many times more" than 10 = ~50 = taking Germany
This is obviously false, so let's revise our estimate downwards
>10 = initial expectations = taking Ukraine easily
Uh oh! This is also wrong. Our initial valuation of Russian military strength must be downgraded still. Let's say "easily" scales with a factor of ten, then Russia's actual military power is 1... or probably less than 1, because 1 implies that victory has even been accomplished... which obviously it hasn't. Therefore Russia's actual military power is < 1. Let's say it's .7 or so, completely arbitrarily. This is the actual starting point from which you suggest Russia might be "many times" more powerful than thought. But we still have problems! If it were indeed many times more powerful than thought, wouldn't that mean victory is at least in sight? Why, then, are they still fighting for Bakhmut? It follows that Russia's military might must be orders of magnitude beneath what was originally called "10". If you are many times more than a minute fraction of your initially estimated power... what does it matter? We thought Russia's military power was 10; now we're wondering whether or not it is "many" multiples of 0.2 or 0.3 ... either way, it's not a good look, and to strike everything prior to Immediate Moment from your consideration is either wilfully disingenuous, ignorant, or both.
>Russia is still going
back to russia you worthless moron
>Lose 10,000 vehicles in a little over a year
>Keep going and lose another 10,000 to own the libs
>Soon have no defense capabilities left
>Changs move in
>strength is when we lose all our vehicles to the poorest country in europe
> Yet Russia is still going despite all these losses?
Depends. Does your definition of "still going" require objective measurement of non-trivial progress towards clearly and unambiguously stated goals?
Taking and holding every scrap of occupied territory for more than a few token months?
Significant forward advancement of the frontline over the past half a year?
Or are you setting the bar somewhat lower for the Second Military of the World in an invasion they chose to instigate, a couple hundred kilometers or so from their own land borders?
> So either the losses are exaggerated or Russia is many times stronger than people think.
You seem to have overlooked a third explanation known as "sunk cost fallacy," and it explains the appearance of T-54/T-55 tanks far better than either of the two you proposed.
This is still wild to me.
They literally can't go further than this after
F O U R T E E N
M O N T H S
and 10,000 vehicles lost, and 1-200,000 casualties.
>Less than 100 miles
>Day 400 of the Second Mexican American War and Blackwater chain gangs armed with 1903 Springfields and FT-17A7s are within 30 miles of Monterey
>Blackwater chain gangs armed with 1903 Springfields and FT-17A7s
holy kino
>Yet Russia is still going despite all these losses?
oh no no no no
Who's got the vid with the dude saying "we're gonna raise our eyebrows and ukraine is goint to understand" ?
Everybody knew that Russia had shittons of old vehicles in deep storage. What has been proven wrong is the notion that Russia could leverage said massive material advantage and use it to win a war. After a year of war they are still struggling to advance a few metres fighting against fricking Ukraine, it's just surreal that for years people thought (and some morons continue to think) that Russia could stand toe-to-toe against NATO.
everybody could have known how russian storage looks like and how limited russian industrial capacity is
You don't because in the vatnik mind none of it ever happened, which is just as well because there simply doesn't exist enough industrial potential in Russia to replace that many tanks. Imagine laying to waste the entire arms bubble created by the USSR, squandering every tank destined for World War 3 on the fricking swamps of Ukraine. You cannot recover from this, it becomes a cultural scar that influences a people's decision making for generations.
>it becomes a cultural scar
Not if you don't let anyone know what happened
Tens of thousands of families are having empty chairs at the dinner table, there's no hiding this.
Same thing happened for the entirety of the Soviet Union, every single family had at least one person hauled off to gulag or shot in a courtyard at midnight
You know what Russians did about it? Nothing
There have been anti-war protests all year, but what the frick can you do when the country has already pulled most stops to disarm the population? As a young person emigrating is a way better idea than trying to fix a failed state (and a lot of skilled workers, STEM graduates and others already did that).
>And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?...
>The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.
>You don't because in the vatnik mind none of it ever happened
Russians don't take personal responsibility for failures, they blame an external world of ~fate~ which is treated as hostile or at least not to be trusted, at best. Americans have the opposite problem, they blame themselves and feel ashamed even when the reasons are out of their hands, which makes them less likely to accept help from others, which partly goes into why the U.S. lacks a lot of basic stuff that Europeans take for granted. Russians are much more likely to accept aid and see no shame in it, but it also helps explain why Russia's neighbors don't wanna be dominated by a country full of people who are Russia-stronk-Orthodox-Leninist authoritarians on the outside but basically a bunch of closeted anarchists who feel no responsibility to anyone else on the inside. Fun!
>Americans have the opposite problem, they blame themselves and feel ashamed even when the reasons are out of their hands
Hey, frick you, not cool bro.
What an impressive number!
By changing from heavily armored coloumn breakthrough attacks to infantry attacks supported mainly by drones and artillary bombardsment
you restart t-34 production, it's this simple. new hulls could be totally domesticly produced, og steel quality wasn't great, so even melted cutlery will meet old standards. power unit won't be a problem either since you just have to swap the same v-2 they've been modernizing for 80 years. i'm sure they still have some frickton of 76mm ammo for main gun, and if not, just weld turrent ring with mg/gl/autocannon that happens to be laying around. there you go, brand new T-34 Obr. 2023
They adapted by using less tanks. Now this is a nasty trench warfare. Artillery versus artillery. Russia might still win
Except Russia is having shell starvation because their logistics was shitty even before HIMARS made supplying front line units an insoluble problem.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1644611310225698816
IDK about artillery chief
Are they using fricking newspapers as camouflage? what the frick
Russian, Chinese and American fly together in a plane. American throws out a Javelin. Russian and Chinese ask why have he done it.
-I have so many I can throw away some.
They fly further. Chinese suddenly throws out of the plane a phone.
-Why did you do it?
-I have many more at home.
Flight continues.
Russian gets up and throws out Tanks (1928, of which destroyed: 1169, damaged: 100, abandoned: 105, captured: 554)
Infantry Fighting Vehicles (2281, of which destroyed: 1474, damaged: 69, abandoned: 126, captured: 610)
Armoured Fighting Vehicles (827, of which destroyed: 518, damaged: 14, abandoned: 30, captured: 265)
Armoured Personnel Carriers (304, of which destroyed: 191, damaged: 8, abandoned: 12, captured: 93)
Command Posts And Communications Stations (240, of which destroyed: 150, abandoned: 3, captured: 87)
Self-Propelled Artillery (382, of which destroyed: 255, damaged: 15, abandoned: 7, captured: 105)
Multiple Rocket Launchers (191, of which destroyed: 129, damaged: 5, abandoned: 2, captured: 55)
Aircraft (79, of which destroyed: 71, damaged: 8)
Helicopters (81, of which destroyed: 70, damaged: 10, captured: 1)
Naval Ships (12, of which destroyed: 8, damaged: 4)
Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (2406, of which destroyed: 1759, damaged: 37, abandoned: 48, captured: 562)
What was it?
Command vehicle
Not sexy, but satisfying enough. At least it wasn't just a normal truck
>Naval Ships (12, of which destroyed: 8, damaged: 4)
>picrel: largest ship in Ukrainian service
I’m having the mental image of a Russian frigate getting distracted by a bayraktar and then broadsided by a sneaky sail ship
>How do you recover from this?
They cant and wont. Russia is your typical corrupt slav shithole hyped up by boomers to excuse their large defense spendings.
In terms of money/material losses, the Russians are sufffering much worse than Ukraine. But they've started to learn from their mistakes, now they're buying Iranian suicide drones that are only $20k a pop, and the Ukrainians are wasting valuable missiles that cost 10-20x times more than these drones to shoot them down.
Ukraine needs to find a way to cheaply destroy these drones in order to win this war of attrition.
It's not like the Ukies are the ones paying for those missiles.
Wat
There hasn't been an Iranian drone launch in months. They're out and have been out for ages.
From what I understand, the AFU dusted off some old WWII ack-ack guns and discovered that they can down a cheapass no-frills Iranian drone loaded with HE even easier than, say, a Focke-Wulf Fw 190.
Who'd have guessed it? Everything old is new again.
> How do you recover from this?
That's the neat part: you don't. They don't have the economic resources/technological know-how to rebuild, let alone catch-up to countries with modern armies. This is their last hurrah: throwing all their heirlooms and inheritance into the fire.
all the fancy new guards unit tech stuff in the 1st year are there at least a few brigades of all that stuff in the moscow area to protect ..uh whatever? or is it ALL gone?
This is cool but demoralizing. How much meat and metal does Russia still have to use? Does Ukraine have to burn through everything Ivan has?
Terrorist Girkin said Puccia has enough gas in the tank for one more year, that's it. Then they have nothing left and are basically helpless to do anything to Ukraine.
>Does Ukraine have to burn through everything Ivan has?
we will do so regardless.
t. ukr
Glory to Ukraine!
everything
Reserve wise they’re down to less than 1k T-72 they can further press into service. Another year with losses akin to last one and they’ll legit collapse as a modern mechanized force.
even russian officials believe they can repair 500 tanks maximum per year
as usual this is overly optimistic
Honestly, if you were to go back in time to February 22nd, 2022, and you were told that Russia was for sure launching a full scale invasion of Ukraine
how many vehicles would you have guessed they would lose in total?
If someone told me 1000 I'd have told them to go take their meds, but here we are now with 10k
>taking 3 pictures of one tank isn't the same as destroying 3 tanks
>painting a new decal on a wreck isn't the same as destroying a new tank
proofs?
Meanwhile in reality NATO is depleted of arms and Russia is still advancing while the meme blue and yellow puppet state is on the brink of total collapse that will take half of europe with it.
2/10 bait, have a (you) for trying
Is there a list of the Russian losses in Donbas between 2014-2022?
Reminder that Oryx is calling it quits in Ukraine soon because it’s too much work
it's gotta be exhausting sifting through all the double counts that vatBlack folk and r/ukraine redditors send in.
His work gets exponentially harder the more losses russia has. For every new entry he has to check all/most of the previous entries for that vehicle type to make sure it's not a dupe or a winter/summer phase of the same kill
He said he's still doing it till he finds a different way to do the counts. If he doesn't he's giving up.
I patiently wait for Russians to start sending tanks from Kubinka to frontline.
>k-kek
why don't you point out the mistakes in his data then?
>How do you recover from this?
russian shills start a useless propaganda offensive on PrepHole
just because they can not do anything else
>How do you recover from this?
lie to yourself, invent bullshit excuses why undeniable facts are somehow fake
bump