alright you FRICKS, I want STRAIGHT ANSWERS HERE. Is nuclear winter REAL? I'm going INSANE trying to filter through the bullshit doing 'muh own research' on the matter.
NUCLEAR WINTER
alright you FRICKS, I want STRAIGHT ANSWERS HERE. Is nuclear winter REAL? I'm going INSANE trying to filter through the bullshit doing 'muh own research' on the matter.
It's not like we can conduct a fricking controlled experiment to find out, moron. Nobody knows for sure.
No one would miss Australia anyway
Saddam did it. The massive oil fires set ablaze by retreating troops took months to put out.
Only localized temperature drops were recorded, due to the smoke columns physically blocking the sun. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere had no noticeable global effect.
Meme like most things we know about nuclear weapons. Overrated as frick, for example to make a country the size of Russia inhabitable you probably have to drop like a thousand tsar bomba
>for example to make a country the size of Russia inhabitable you probably have to drop like a thousand tsar bomba
It'd be perfectly inhabitable already if you just got rid of the Russkies.
Sort of. The effect comes not from the nuclear weapons themselves but from the firestorms they produce. You get a ton of soot into the atmosphere and everything goes orange like New York had recently with the Canadian wildfires throwing soot into the local atmosphere.
Enough soot across the globe (as a large scale nuclear war could cause) and it would block an appreciable amount of sunlight from hitting the earth's surface, lowering global temperatures noticeably and producing a nuclear winter until the soot settled out of the atmosphere and things would warm again.
Another effect is that the nuclear fireball causes atmospheric nitrogen and oxygen to react together, producing nitrogen oxides which are pushed into the upper atmosphere by the rising heat and cloud where they can damage the ozone layer and increase UV exposure. So even after the nuclear winter, wear shades outside because it's going to be rough on the eyes.
Studies have gone back and forth on whether the level of soot generation is plausible based on a number of factors such as modern infrastructure being a lot less prone to large, city sweeping firestorms and how quickly it would precipitate out of the atmosphere. We've seen temperature drops from similar events like volcanic eruptions spewing ash and such into the atmosphere so the mechanisms behind it work, but whether it would be plausible for it to happen in a limited nuclear exchange is what's still being debated.
this is correlated to the things I've read about the composition of modern western cities producing more soot right? Due to the amount of plastics and other materials in buildings
But you also have more concrete high rises to shit would topple and smother a lot of the burning contents.
Burning plastic is bad, but you need a firestorm tier inferno to cause a rising thermal that lofts the particles into a layer of the atmosphere where rain can't clear it out.
It's also about how well the fire can spread and how easy it is to contain. Concrete, steel and glass doesn't burn as easily as wood, paper, cloth, thatch, or other building materials commonly used in the past. The presence of plastics don't matter as much as the overall composition and the replacing of wood with steel in many buildings.
OPpie covered this almost a decade ago. Nuclear Winter rests on a bunch of bad assumptions. First, it takes the amount of particulates generated per kiloton from Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Then it straight-line extrapolates it against the total number of megatons in global arsenals. Both of these are massive errors. Japanese houses included a lot of wood frames and rice paper walls, and most of them had pot-bellied stoves for cooking. A huge number got flattened, and then smoldered for weeks. Cities these days have a lot more steel and concrete in them (wood frames are mostly in the suburbs). And explosions are three-dimensional, which means that twice the tonnage doesn't affect twice the acreage.
As
pointed out, there were numerous warnings of Nuclear Winter when Saddam set off those massive oil well fires. The result was almost negligible compared to Mount Pinatubo a few months later.
tl;dr the only way you're getting a new Little Ice Age is either a) the sun weakens for decades/centuries, b) major, sustained volcanic eruptions (or a smaller number of Krakatoa-sized ones), or c) both. Nukes aren't going to do it, especially now that we have thousands rather than tens of thousands.
the research hasn't gone back and forth. the narrative acceptable to publish has gone back and forth between experimental evidence directly refuting the firestorm meme (misunderstanding of volcanic cooling when the climate models being used were designed, oilfield fires during Gulf War, literal firestorms from the Australian wildfires in 2020) and willfully ignorant propagandists spewing scientifically unsound lies
it's not even a huge group of people still tied to the nuclear winter lies - if Alan Robock appears on the author list of a paper about nuclear winter, it's essentially guaranteed to be complete bunk scientifically
it is ASTONISHING how often his name in particular shows up in the sources for basically any and all reporting on "how bad nuclear winter would be" - i don't even know who he works for or what his affiliations are, i literally only know his name because of how consistently doomer articles about nuclear winter ultimately trace back to publications with him in the author list
this and also the economic disruption would cause mass starvation as all transportation hubs, financial systems, etc would be destroyed so billions would starve to death.
Look at the reaction to Covid, a disease that killed about 0.1 percent (at most) of the people it infected. The world had a heart attack. Now imagine a war that killed 100 million in a few days, society would completely collapse.
> Ozone layer damage, uv radiation
> Just wear shades
Holy shit young people are idiots
No
>Is nuclear winter REAL?
It's not. The concept of Nuclear Winter is disinfo invented by a Soviet agent planted on a denuclearization conference decades ago and people just parroted its talking points ever since cause it's pretty much common sense that the MAD doctrine is madness.
MAD was only ever about command/control structures. in short, whatever gave the order to launch was assured destruction even as the lauch destroyed the ones who would respond.
it's a gun duel between gunmen who know they'll be able to fire back even if the other dude draws and fires first - it was never a threat to kill everyone in the town by gun smoke inhalation
It's real in my mind!
>Boms drop errybody first world and second world dies quickly
>Thirdies die from hypothermia seething they weren't important enough for a proper nuke
Get fricked Mbuku and Fillipinoprude49
What happens when a volcanoe erupts? It spews ash that decreases global temps a bit. Now imagine thousand and thousand and thousands of major cities across the world burning. It'd be like thousands of large volganoes erupting at once. Obviously it should do a similar effect but much bigger right?
ash in the air = bad.
volcanoes affect temperature via sulfur aerosols, not ash. that's why Hunga Tonga/Hunga Ha'apai didn't cool the planet - not much sulfur aerosols
we've known this experimentally since Pinatubo; 80s-era climate models predate that and didn't understand the role of sulfur aerosols in climate
the new nuclear winter is tech winter. If you were to blow up the Microsoft headquarters, Apple, a couple AWS farms and like two other big firms the economy would implode no?
>if people can't purchase rubber dogshit from china, the economy will implode!
No it won't, nobody gives a frick about that shit. Are you fricking stupid? How many mouthes does Apple or Amazon feed? Can you eat an ipad? Unfrick yourself
Conceptually yes but in practice modern cities aren't as fireprone as 1930s tenement slums plus an exchange between the US and Russia would focus on military target for the most part.
Now a war between Britain (and/or France) and China might cause some issue the Franco-British strategy to a massive nuclear exchange is to just go straight for the cities. 180-300 Chinese no fire safety tofu-dreg cities getting zipped by 300kt each within 30 minute window might cause some issues.
like most doomer hyperbole its complete dogshit. To get anything close to resembling the prophesized nook winter you need to go back to extinction events. Not some made up bullshit by fifth column useful idiots with an agenda, real life events that have happened on earth
Specifically Chicxulub, the rock that killed the dinos. Which is also the most weakest out of the all known events. Since its not political you can get more or less neutral guesses on what it looked like and what effects it caused. Then pay specifc attention to the estimated destructive potential of the impact. Measured in megatonns. Then compare it to all known existing nook piles and you will pretty quickly get an idea how weak nooks really are. Destructive on human societies as WW2 combined was something like 3-4 MTs but piss weak on planetary/ecological/weather scale.
Even then the biggest shit nooks cause on human races is the upheavel in global economy as agriculture and industry gets smacked around. It will take some time to recover with the void filled with famines and epidemic outbreaks.
Nuclear winter is as real as all the other times that scientists told us the world would end if we did XYZ...so not real at all. Complete fantasy, made up by 1 idiot who wrote a book a few decades ago. You probably believe in global warming and acid rain too, don't you?
Nuclear winter and summer are literal Soviet propaganda, never let anyone tell you nuclear war is un winnable, it is
Nuclear war permanently altering the climate is bullshit.
Nuclear wars temporarily altering the climate and causing an extremely abnormally high number of deaths from starvation and untreated hypothermia during winter months and frostbite as a direct result of the destruction of dwellings, the power grid, and transportation infrastructure is not.
tl;dr No, New York being hit by multiple nuclear warheads will not turn it into a permanently frozen wasteland. Yes the following winter will have death rates comparable to Stalingrad, if not worse.
We just dont know.
No.
t.
Just ask Oppenheimer.
>ohyeah, I forgot, summer/k/ocksuckers doxxed the guy
>Herman Kahn, "On Thermonuclear Warfare"
1. No
2. groundburst + inefficient fuel burns = the long lasting and extensive fallout
3. airburst is more efficient anyways and mitigates whatever remainder of contemporary efficient burning ones
4. Yes: the Sino-Soviets always desired a goldilocks First Strike on the USA and after COOF you ought to be considering it slightly more possible than zero, whatever the deterrence at play
5. POTUS was bankrolled by two Soviet assets in his early career (Leo Slizard, Armand Hammer) and has confirmed payoffs out in Ukraine mediated by Chinese sex workers & corporations, you know, that stuff with his crackhead inbreeding son and laptops
MAD = "we're not negotiating even if you got off a perfect Force-On-Force First/Decapitation Strike, and we WILL fricking genocide you with atomic hellfire with JUST the submarine retaliation salvos BY THEMSELVES."
That said accidents happen and evil is its own kinds of stupid, so it's better to have simply contingency plans to mitigate any such prospective fallout situation and have the ability to wait it out -- wouldn't be more than a few weeks or a month or two provided the aforementioned is adhered to.
as I understand it the ICBM sites in the US Plains state (SD, ND, MT etc) need to be hit by ground bursts so that would spread fallout all over the most productive agricultural region of the world. No?
>+tax
kek, do you have to tip at the cinemas as well?
>Is nuclear winter REAL?
No, it was literally an antiwar/anti-proliferation psyop by Carl Sagan and his buddies.
Scientists have called Sagan out on his bullshit, but he medialized the idea enough that normies picked it up and still regurgitate it to this day.
Hell there's a bunch of them in this thread.
So, I'm pro-nuclear power, but I'm having a bit of a problem with your "pro nuclear war" stance. It may be that since the 70s models are more accurate and Sagan may have been wrong and have motivation to exaggerate, but what exactly is your point? "We coulda had a kino multimegaton exchange but those damn liberals tricked us!"
Is that what you're saying? Are you stupid?
Where the frick did you get that I'm "pro nuclear war"?
I'm saying he deliberately spread the meme that any significant nuclear exchange would result in an extinction event, despite the theory being extremely wobbly.
The problem with this is that these appeals only work on westerners who were all too eager to de-fang themselves towards the end of the cold war, so he played the role of a useful idiot.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/02/nuclear-winter-theory-is-wrong-as-it-assumes-super-flammable-cities.html
If Bikini Atoll is anything close to an indicator, yes a nuclear winter is possible. Bikini didn't even have a forest on it, it was just a sandbar with an observation bunker nearby. It still snowed ash from the sky and it got a lot of native islanders sick + suffer radiation burns.
>nuclear fallout exists, therefore nuclear winter is possible
Are you moronic
That's a dumb one to use as an example. It was an underwater detonation in a shallow atoll. Of course it threw a lot of shit into the air. Had it been an airburst which is what most nukes will be in an exchange, there would have been little ash and soot since there wasn't much to burn on the atoll to begin with.
Nuclear winter is real. Check the Krakatoa effect
It was Tambora, not Krakatoa. And it had a lot more power than all the nukes in the world combined.
Probably to some extent.
There is historical evidence that suggests that such a thing is possible, based on volcanic erruptions, such as in 1816 and 536.
There is no reason why nukes couldn't have a similar effect. Ultimately the real question is how many nukes do you need to make that happen.