Vatnik telegram admitting earlier reports of a successful push north were unfounded.
The unit attacking was either part or whole of the 127th Motor Rifle Division which up to this point had not been committed to the front, suggesting the Russians are having to throw theatre level reserves to try to stop the Ukrainians taking Starmolynka.
If thisnis the case then it would suggest the Russian main defensive line to the south of that settlement is not quite as solid as they would like, else they would hold assets like entire divisions deeper in resrve.
why are they counterattacking if Ukraine can't make any gains because all their attacks were stopped and it couldn't even reach the main defense line?
vatnikbros? our response?
>vatnikbros? our response?
Unconditional surrender and free Russian mail order brides for everyone except France.
>except France
Based. Frick frogs
Translator's note: France is excluded because they already got their mail order Russian brides in the 1920s. In order to maintain equality between EU members France is not getting any brides this time.
What about their saint-storm shadóvue missiles? They helped a lot.
Most of Russian few remaining weapons run purely because frogs sold them parts under the table, then had the balls to complain about Britain chafing over import/export rules.
>free HIV for everyone except France
Frick off frog
Yeah and meanwhile the fricking gays blew out PRep
Thunderbird for me
good ending
I'll take 2 please
>except France
wine tasting is the biggest crock of bullshit ever.
This. As long as its not the bargain bin shit it's all nice, but past a certain price point it's literally just bullshit to try and act like there's some massive difference in quality.
Even bargain bin shit is fine, depending. Two buck chuck is solid.
yeah aside from taste being subjective i remember buying a beer that won some big tasting competition and that tasted straight ass.
tastings are just big circlejerks
>Guy I know is a wine taster in Europe
>Served wine to heads of states
>Worked in wine industry and wine making since he was born
According to him every wine above 50€ has no tasteable quality difference. He can sniff out a grape or a certain region even, but in pure terms of quality there is no difference.
To a normal person the price line is even lower.
Last time I looked into it there's like 10% of wine tasters who actually give consistent results and the other 90% will rate the same exact bottle wildly different glass-to-glass in a blind taste test with all other factors equal. So it's not that they're identical just that even for professional wine snobs most can't tell the differences.
Sure, wine isn't identical of course. But with changing moods, prior meals, air, smells, beaver breeding cycles it comes down to daily feel and a difference in taste more than quality.
I trust that a wine expert could tell two wines apart any day and even give some details on them. But he will never accurately sort 10 bottles from 50€ to 5000€ and have a different line up each time.
The only good thing France does nowadays is their 'toons and comics.
They have some great manufacturing and engineering, but it feels like they're trying to destroy it right now.
I used to own a great French car with amazing active suspension. Literally the top results in the Moose Test and can drive on bad roads without even feeling it. They literally don't make them anymore because they got bought out by some morons who forced the manufacturer to make "affordable" models instead.
la'rapeux
Brown people don't look like that irl
I wish they did.
Tan white girls do
>ywn marry a french girl
>ywn encourage her ego
>ywn tease her about her nation's shortcomings when she gets too uppity
Fine wine comes from Europe. Just not from France (or *stia)
I actually find Australian Wine to be the nicest to drink. It doesn't have that evaporation kind of feeling that you normally get when you swallow it which means you can just sip away at it throughout the evening.
buttblasted bong, if anything they will give their newly acquired slavic brides to their new masters
I'm American. You replied to me because you're sour about living in the only degraded graffiti covered shit-hole country in Europe even though you're on arguably the most popular continent. Deal with it.
I WILL buy a russian maid
>"B-b-but we destroyed Leopard tank, NATO SISTERS COPE HARD"
>Actual NATO sisters (all of them biological women)
Burn everything to the ground blow every dam nuclear plant and chemical storage then salt the earth.
Leave them nothing but ashes.
Your country will be pillaged to pay for fixing it.
>let’s piss off our neighbors for several generations and instill a culture of hatred and loathing towards us, as we ultimately did nothing but give NATO justification to set up MIC in Ukraine, and possibly have US assets stationed next to our borders now!
US bases in Ukraine are definitely inevitable now.
Ukie tank commanders are going to be holding court at the NTC for the next 20 years, especially those that used Abrams
They want to regain all the lost ground so they can claim Ukraine's attack totally failed.
The Russians see Ukraine as part of Russia so they want every bit of it they can get their hands on. Victory for them is directly proportional to how much ground they control.
An idiotic absurdity that shall be exploited without mercy, lol. The reality is simple: Russia is NOT strong enough to stop the Ukrainian advance, Ukraine had finally leveled up enough to kick Russia's ass.
The Russian's foolishly let the Ukrainians grind troop EXP in the Bakhmut Battle Zone and now they are paying the price for it.
They got months and months of experience how to handle Russian human waves.
Because it is all just fake news. But we have to counter the fake news with other fake news!
because it's a textbook defence-in-depth doctrine. you trade land for huge enemy losses. first sentence from wikipedia should enlighten you.
Every single Russian counterattack failed, this is actually insane. And they keep throwing more men in, while on defensive, this is absolutely NOT how defense in depth works
that western weapons could make difference in scenarios like that. Russian only chance is to dig up and caunt on mine fields and presighted artillery. When it comes to more mobile defense it will be harder becasue they burned up most of their modern equipment and enemy is starting to get used to civilized machines.
That won't happen. Russian plan is clearly to "MUH COUNTERATTACK", transferring their guys out of their own defensive positions and Banzai-charging to their deaths.
Ukrainians know the Russian playbook better than the Russians know it themselves. They anticipated this incredible stupidity.
>hold advantageous defensive positions
>leave them to blindly charge at the enemy and die
What the frick.
Because Russians are the classic example of a cargo cult. They're following the manual even when it is completely out of touch with reality.
It's why I consider the Ukrainians the TRUE heirs of the Soviet military tradition. They don't blindly follow "MUH MILITARY THOUGHT", they have improved upon it by infusing it with new concepts and ideas. The decentralized command system alone gives them dramatically greater reaction time than the lethargic Soviet "MUH ORDERS" model.
SEND THE NEXT WAVE
Ukies officially confirmed the liberation of Makarivka.
https://nitter.nl/bayraktar_1love/status/166851728
9803513856#m
(the FB material it links to was uploaded 2 hours ago)
Ukraine confirmed liberation of Makarivka on June 11, so 2 days ago
Right, but ziggers claim to have been counterattacking since. Guess it would be wise to wait a couple more days.
Considering the new wave of day 1 casualty spam, it seems to be very likely that the Russian counterattacks at Makarakiva were repulsed.
WarGonzo admitted they failed
quick spam more bradley videos
>https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668499450900238339
>Footage of the liberation of Makarivka by the 137th batallion of the 35th marine brigade
Translated video further down the thread. Talks about fleeing vatniks, pest control and aviation working
>aviation working
Day 478 of the 3-Day SMO
The Ukrainian Air Force despite being destroyed in the first two hours of the operation continues to fly sorties.
>undead of kyiv
>Iron Maidan
New Album?
underrated
psych - the morons were French too (Peugeot bought Citroën)
>build the final boss Monkeyno defense line
>use reserves to fight the enemy in the open field
This is beyond my understanding. What is the tactical advantage of not using your defense fortifications?
Plan is to counterattack exhausted enemy that had no time to entrench new position, it's very solid idea. Problem is that Russia is very bad at attacking so that plan just falls flat
>giving the Ukies exactly what they want by attacking Leos with T-72s in the open
Solid plan, I'd trust it comrade.
Plan is good, execution isn't
That's generally the plan.
As we were discussing in another thread, the Russians are going for a WW1 German Defence-in-Depth strategy where the first line is suppose to be lightly defended and then you smack them with a heavy counter-attack to drive them off and launch your own attack. Such an operation requires well-trained, motivated troops and good co-ordination between all of the forces involved so your own support fire doesn't blow apart your own troops.
The Russians don't have a lot of well-trained, motivated troops and communication between forces is remarkably crap for the most part, which is why this plan is not going well for them. The Ukrainians also seem to be using a modernised version of Bite-and-Hold strategy where they launch an attack, dig in to fight off the counterattack and then launch another push down the line. This nibbling of the line is going to put a lot of pressure on Russia as they only have two or three lines of defences in most places; so once a hole is made somewhere, they are going to have a horrific time trying to plug it and there is a good chance that the whole line could just collapse if multiple holes are made at once.
>Russians are going for a WW1 German Defence-in-Depth strategy where the first line is suppose to be lightly defended and then you smack them with a heavy counter-attack to drive them off and launch your own attack.
Great plan comrade! Though, was wasting our last offensive potential in year long Bakhmut siege a part of this plan or was it a different, totally unrelated great plan?
No, see, the German defensive strategy was preceded by the spring offensive
>Russians don't have a lot of well-trained, motivated troops
Is zero a lot?
>giving the Ukies exactly what they want by attacking Leos with T-72s in the open
Well you see, comrade, Leos proven to of beings potemkin tenk by over-spammed video. Did you see, comrade? Western HATO machine is of being so garbage, doesn't even explode dramatically when damaged. Is of good thing, otherwise no clean good pictures for spamming, yes?
Anyway, cumrade, evil Nazi tenks are clearly of being inferior. Is no of problem to just throw mighty T-72 against them xaxaxaxaxa
Honestly if I was Ukraine, I would BAIT the enemy without shame.
Because a fatal flaw in standard Soviet thought is that defense must always led to offense. I've studied Soviet military stuff and as I expected, they have ZERO concept of the Pyrrhic Victory, lol.
It's obvious to anyone Ukraine learned the art of defense's true importance from NATO as well as the concept of Pyrrhic Victory (see Mariupol, Severodonetsk, etc.). The Ukrainians have bled the Russians without shame many times, exploiting the Russian fixation on "offense and MUH VICTORY!".
Any suggestion on where to start studying soviet tactics ? Are there specific books about the topic ?
Yes. And I'm hoping seeing the success of the Ukrainian military inspires more interest. There are things in Soviet military theory I DO approve of.
https://www.amazon.com/Soviet-Military-Operational-Art-Practice/dp/0714640778
I found this to be a good intro: https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm100-2-1.pdf
Thank you guys
Welcome. That reminds me. I need to study the Battle Of Kursk some more, where a MASSIVE Soviet Defense stopped the German Blitzkrieg in its track. Just an absolute masterpiece of defense.
Sounds comfy, I never studied it, I will add that to the list
>The Central and Voronezh Fronts each constructed three main defensive belts in their sectors, with each subdivided into several zones of fortification. The Soviets employed the labour of over 300,000 civilians. Fortifying each belt was an interconnected web of minefields, barbed-wire fences, anti-tank ditches, deep entrenchments for infantry, anti-tank obstacles, dug-in armoured vehicles, and machine-gun bunkers.[122] Behind the three main defensive belts were three more belts prepared as fallback positions; the first was not fully occupied or heavily fortified, and the last two, though sufficiently fortified, were unoccupied with the exception of a small area in the immediate environs of Kursk. The combined depth of the three main defensive zones was about 40 kilometres (25 mi). The six defensive belts on either side of Kursk were 130–150 kilometres (81–93 mi) deep.[123] If the Germans managed to break through these defences they would still be confronted by additional defensive belts to the east, manned by the Steppe Front. These brought the total depth of the defences to nearly 300 kilometres (190 mi).[121]
The Voronezh and Central Fronts dug 4,200 kilometres (2,600 mi) and 5,000 kilometres (3,100 mi) of trenches respectively,[124] laid out in criss-cross pattern for ease of movement.[122] The Soviets built more than 686 bridges and about 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) of roads in the salient.[124] Red Army combat engineers laid 503,663 anti-tank mines and 439,348 anti-personnel mines, with the highest concentration in the first main defensive belt.[120][122] The minefields at Kursk achieved densities of 1,700 anti-personnel and 1,500 anti-tank mines per kilometre, about four times the density used in the defence of Moscow.[125][126] For example, the 6th Guards Army of the Voronezh Front, was spread out over nearly 64 kilometres (40 mi) of front and was protected by 69,688 anti-tank and 64,430 anti-personnel mines in its first defensive belt.
Seriously, when you read shit like this, you really just how far modern Russia has fallen from its "glory" days. Ukraine on the other hand is regaining its fricking teeth.
Insane to imagine that 80 years after that, the "heir of the soviet union" can't even win against, at best, local powers
Post-script: I won't be shocked if Kyiv's defenses rival that battle's.
There is already a video with 4 vatnik tanks attacking Ukrainian positions and exploding within 30 seconds. Mines are the only thing between vatniks and Desert Storm tier steamroll.
>Mines are the only thing between vatniks and Desert Storm tier steamroll
that and the fact that Ukraine has barely committed any of their actual reserve brigades which were assumed to be the ones doing the counteroffensive
Yeah, I'm starting to think Ukraine might not even NEED the new reserves to wipe Russia's forces out, lol. This is turning into a massacre.
They are using about 1/4 of their force but that includes the best equipped units with NATO gear.
Fully expect Challenger to show up somewhere soon
Crew is sipping some tea while waiting for the right moment.
Wise, very wise. I approve. They're not taxing their logistics needlessly, and if anything goes wrong, they have a FRICKTON of reserves at 75 percent force remaining. Russia doesn't have a chance in hell.
We've seen no Challys and just a handful of Leos and Bradleys. I think the perception that those units were mauled, as some are keen to portray, is unfounded based on evidence so far.
I might even go so far as to say they were used partially for psychological purposes - if Leopards are sighted in Zap, the effect may well be that the Russians think "That's it, the main offensive is confirmed to be in Zap" even if it's just a handful of the total number of them, making them overcommit their own reserves there. But I'm by no means confident that that is what's happening, it's just a possibility I'm keeping in mind.
Ukraine IS that clever to do so. Russia (and the West) assumes Ukraine will only use its best units as the tip of the spear.
What if that is the trick right there, in plain sight? Ukraine will instead use its best Soviet tanks for the true target.
It was a unit with L2A6, L2R and Brads but yes vatniks are really overreacting those "catastrophic" losses of like 2 tanks and 5 IFVs that were fricked beyond recovery.
vatBlack folk have been choking on humiliation after humiliation for some time now, of course they were going to celebrate anything that went well for them
I was thinking pretty much the same thing. The Russians put the heaviest fortifications on the approach to Tokmak, and they seem to be defending it with the best, high-morale professional units they've got left, plus favoring it with airpower. So the Russians are signaling that Tokmak is the prize they want to lose the least.
Ukraine, meanwhile, committed the 47th Mechanized Brigade, one of their best units, with some of the best new gear they've got. And everybody knows that the Russians were looking to score propaganda victories so they'd pounce on the Leos and Brads the moment they turned up.
I think it was a ruse by the AFU and the Russians bit hard onto it. They're committing reserves early in the hopes of a crushing victory, but that means those reserves can't be used elsewhere. So here's the theory: they baited the Russians into overcommitting early, and the primary job of the 47th is to keep them occupied. It would make sense to give the 47th the new gear with the best crew survival rates if that's what they're doing (and lo and behold).
If the 47th makes a breakthrough then that's even better, but I think they're actually looking to take whatever spearhead gets them a breakthrough and then exploit it.
They're also testing Russian strength overall and finding it....lacking.
Personally I say just fire a ton of missiles at Tokmak and see how much of the Vatniks they can glass.
They've definitely been hitting Tokmak and other places with their long-range precision advantage. I think there were 6 HIMARS strikes last night just on Tokmak?
>lacking
I have to agree with the Anon here:
-- those defenses look pretty extensive, and it's going ot be a grueling full-court press to get to a breakthrough. But I noticed one or two other things:
The counterattacks from the 127th MRD and others seem really overeager, like the Russians are either (a.) hoping to not yield an inch and cast doubt on the Western suppliers, or (b.) desperate to stop the AFU from hitting the main line.
The other is that the Russians have been blowing smaller dams and retaining walls all over Zap and Donetsk. This seems premature to me, since they can only blow a dam once, and it makes sense to do it at the last minute so it doesn't mess with your own troops. I'm not sure if they're jumping the gun or if this is punitive mass punishment for resisting.
>punitive mass punishment for resisting.
That's exactly what it is. Some civilians trying to organize evacuations or aid affected areas have made some pretty damning reports on what's going on in flooded territories under Russian control.
Why rush tbh? America will raise as an egg in the ass
With the frightening speed Ukrainians adapt? Those mines aren't going to slow the Ukrainians down for too much longer. They're like fricking Saiyans, getting stronger after every battle.
>They're like fricking Saiyans
bro stfu most of us want the ukies to win but you sound cringe as frick. you probably don't even own guns
Can you spoonfeed me a link to that video anon?
how do you even fricking lose 56 tanks on a """"screening layer""""?
how does this even make fricking sense?
and why are they showing the same 6-7 Bradleys and maybe 3 leopards if the supposedly detroyed 1600000000 ukronazo tanks?
zizterz explain now
Because the probable truth is the majority of Russian troops in that area are in fact manning the screening layer lmao.
Honestly, people should just stop reporting what this man says. Nothing he has ever said in the last 2 years can be taken as accurate and is only said so that the pensioners and Muscovites don't shove an ass up his ass
I hate people that repost medvedev. But thats probably just making fun of full blown schizo.
Giving publicity to literal nobody is cringe regardless.
The amount of times this man has threatened Nuclear War we should all be living on the set of Fallout 3, by now
Congratulations, you are smarter than contemporary journalists.
Theoretically, you should be counter-attacking the enemy as they get close to your static defenses. You should never let the enemy close to your static defenses if you have a choice. Post-Interwar warfrare does not favor static defenses.
It must be pretty bad if they're wheeling out Putin to try and reassure people.
>admitting to losing 56 tanks
>b...but we totally killed 3 times that number tho!
The "screening layer" is the first, and only, line of defense they have.
so ukraine lost 16 tanks and russia lost 540 tanks?
Haven't been keeping up with what Putin has been saying, if anything really. When was the last time he talked about things like numbers between this pic and the last?
To be clear I'm talking about useful statistics besides him just going on camera and saying shit like "My heart goes to those brave russian fighters very quickly becoming ground beef" and whatnot.
Isn't Putin burying his head in the sand or something?
He went from trying to be a Big Macho Man who guides his forces with a firm and steady hand too pretty much dedicating all of his PR time to opening random bridges and factories whilst trying to distance himself from the war as much as politically possible.
>trying to distance himself from the war as much as politically possible.
I feel deep down Putin was sniffing his own farts too much, and his peers also telling him how good they smelled, which made his ego inflate to levels unseen by any other man on earth and he suddenly shouted "WE WILL TAKE KIEV IN TWO WEEKS!" one day. And now we're here.
At heart; Putin is a gambling bully who struggles when he makes a bad bet and his victim fights back hard.
I bet Putin is was told those numbers by the Ru MoD and he genuinely believes them because he lives in a completely isolated information bubble.
Bahaha lying all the time makes the decision making super easy. Always do and assume opposite of what rus says.
the Stalin part always gets me
anyone have an updated map?
Jesus /k/ tards are still /k/oping? The oink-pensive has stalled two days ago after minuscule gains well away from THE ACTUAL DEFENSE LINE having lost a shitload of equipment. But no worries they will get 15 bradleys to wipe the tears away.
Be a man.
Face the music
It's over.
Every Russian will die
>muh crumble zone
Something tells me Russian defenses have the crumble zone of picrel
why did they spend 3 days and over 50 tanks trying to counterattack a ""crumple zone""?
make this make sense vatBlack folk
(You)
Anon I think you responded to the wrong person, I don’t actually buy the cope zone’s existence, I was making fun of it
Turns out the "crumple zone" is probably where the majority of their troops are kek
Don't you have 60 spam thread to make with your one (1) image of a damaged Leopard?
You've lost hundreds of tanks and thousands of men trying to contain this. How much are you willing to throw away just to stall the advance I wonder.
>uhhhh... picrel
Are you telling me that the Russian Ground Forces had 9-12 months to fortify positions against an attack, which they spent installing a murderous network of minefields, trenches, dragon's teeth, pre-sighted artillery, you name it, and then with all those advantages on their side they counterattacked an AFU brigade with a division-level force in the first week of fighting? And the DIVISION was the one who retreated 700m to the south? WTF?
>make this make sense vatBlack folk
You and me both, Anon.
>maybe the 127th Motor Rifles is a bunch of ill-equipped Donbabweans
No, we just saw Ukrainian FPV loitering munition destroy a Russian T-80BVM in Staromaiors'ke. They're not fielding T-54s or something, they've got the gear.
>maybe the Western weapons really are that good
They might have an edge, and the night vision and optics are likely superior, but if they were THAT good we'd be seeing videos on the level of the Iraqi Republican Guard's collapse.
>maybe Russian units have been overreporting their force size
I heard rumors about that, but if the division was 50% undersized it would still outnumber the AFU brigade by something like 2 to 1, right?
What am I missing here?
>Russians has 9-12 months
Is it possible the Russians largely spent that time sitting on their ass, stealing shit and raping each other instead?
Russian divisions are on the smaller side. 127th isn't having a good war. They got absolutely fricking shattered up near Lyman last year and then rebuilt from mobiks, and now seems they're getting fricked up again.
Thanks, that's making a little bit more sense.
I had read about the Soviet emphasis on the offensive, anything else you can share from what you've learned?
Sadly I admit my interest in Soviet military thought is relatively new (due to Ukraine putting elements of it to good use).
It's even worse for Putin. Russia is losing to.....a Westernized rival Slavic state that is genuinely outfighting them with a hybrid style of war. The country he feels isn't even "real".
Seriously, if there's anything the Ukrainians have taught me is "Don't follow the conventional wisdom. Do what no one expects you to do."
Ukraine will NOT use its best tanks as the tip of the spear, because that is what everyone expects them to do and they know it.
>I admit my interest in Soviet military thought is relatively new
Same here, and same reason behind it. One (relatively meta) thing that's stood out to me is the whole Soviet "we will make a science of war" philosophy. Like the "emphasize the offensive" doctrine, it sounds reasonable on the surface put falls apart the closer you examine it and their implementation.
They convinced themselves that they had found THE perfect solutions through the scientific method, then codified it and drilled on it. And while some of it makes sense, there's a couple of metagame problems that crop up.
The first is that Soviet tactics and strategy become inflexible, and very top-down. They have the Perfect Strategy, right? So any deviation from it must be less than perfect; just paint by the numbers. And that means they can't take advantage of fleeting opportunities.
The other thing is that by publishing the Perfect Doctrine and never deviating from it, they give their opponents their playbook to try to work out ways to screw with their assumptions.
War doctrine should be "guidelines", not "predictable rules". When you make your doctrine rigid, you give your enemy the means to read your moves.
It's why I approve of Ukraine's more dynamic, decentralized, chaotic, Indy Ploy version of it. It's far harder to predict.
Ukraine has no doctrine. Its been 1.5 years and our incompetent morons did not come up with anything at all as if its normal. We basically live off gibs from west, while our volounteers patch every hole and zeleofficials do nothing.
>Incompetent morons
You're not Ukrainian. Super Potato's considered a goddamn national hero.
Zaluzhny commanding army, not global state strategy of what we do next.
Oleksandr's the tactician.
There's morons like him still around. Not many now - even Butusov changed his tune. But there's definitely still some around.
One thing I've noticed however is that they are always extremely vague about the problems they meet and at odds with the opinions of territorials/civilians/soldiers I know. Makes me wonder if some of them are less than genuine.
The man is a fricking genius, Vatnik.
https://time.com/6216213/ukraine-military-valeriy-zaluzhny/
>morons like him
clearly refers to the poster being discussed
Butusov spent a lot of the early war accusing both high command and the government of being incompetent and incapable. I think he really started to come around after the great pontooning incident.
He still (rightfully) does. Zelemak gang keep arresting competent patriots and feeding FSB with info. Not a single high official installed by current regime that turned out to be russian mole faced justice, because this would point on those who installed them.
Aren't some of them literally in jail right now? The ones that got caught at the border at least?
Like one or two minor ones? Wouldnt be surprised if they already prison swapped head of Motor Sich back to russia.
>The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Serbia reported the detention of Ukrainian citizen A.M. (born in 1982), who is suspected of money laundering. Serbian media clarifies that Andrii Naumov, former head of the Internal Security Department of the Security Service of Ukraine
The russian plant who was appointed personally by zelenskiy and supposed to defend South caught in Serbia with millions of cash and diamonds. Its been over a year and he is not extradited, because judiciary system is under Yermak, owner of zelenskiy.
Butusov said nothing about Zaluzhny, you making shit up.
It's a Vatnik. A real Ukrainian would call Zaluzhny a national hero. His popularity rivals that of the President's.
>rivals
Not that hard tbh, westerners like Zeleboba more than >89IQ ukraininans.
We'll have to agree to disagree on that one, because the AFU last autumn pulled off a goddamned masterstroke, all while at a severe disadvantage in materiel. Picrel is one of the most shocking "punching WAY above their weight class" moments I can recall -- even the most optimistic assessments prior to September were that Ukraine might carry out limited, small-scale attacks of opportunity.
Quite honestly, if the AFU had been given Brads, Abrams, F-16s, HIMARS, Storm Shadow, etc. on March 1st 2022, I don't think the Russians could have held them at Svatove.
>last autumn pulled off a goddamned masterstroke
Lets face reality. Kharkiv counter offensive started at Spring. For 4 months our army was conducting strikes on russian positions and they themselves were understaffed and still living in dreams that no mobilization needed. It culminated in September Kharkiv Feint. It was blitzkrieg, if you ignore almost half a year operation.
True, and it paid off in a big way.
>It was blitzkrieg, if you ignore almost half a year operation.
There's an American idiom about "an overnight success (that's been ten years in the making)".
>Ukie forces have extremely inconsistent quality.
Not surprising, but I think the trend over time is very much weighted towards the former: a professional NATO-quality army is appearing gradually, one battalion at a time. And the more competent soldiers and good officers Ukraine gets, the more they'll drive out the latter sort.
>It was blitzkrieg, if you ignore almost half a year operation.
So a genuine, no-nonsense Blitzkrieg.
Ukie forces have extremely inconsistent quality. Some are extremely competent soldiers with good officers that are basically equivalent to many Western forces. Others are incompetent layabouts with officers who spend their days drinking and backstabbing other officers rather than preparing for battle. These two types of units might be right next to each other on the line. Regardless they're much less competent overall than quality Western militaries and succeed because the Russians have the same problem but much worse.
No "Perfect Strategy" completely omits the concept of the "Pyrrhic Victory", lol.
You’re mistaking things. The Soviet planners were trying to make maximum use of resources they had. They were an army consisting overwhelmingly of conscripts and reserves which didn’t have the best training. Centralized command and control and a willingness to sacrifice formations to achieve tactical and operational success was the basics of the playbook, designed to rapidly exploit breakthroughs or reinforce weak areas as the central command staff would have a better picture of what was going on overall and have vastly more experience than lower level officers on the scene. This method of command has limits though - it needs officers to execute as close as possible as they’re ordered, to minimize possible errors in assumptions by high command on what units are where. It also needs very dedicated and trained higher level officers and staff, and limits lower level tactical flexibility, reserving it more for the regimental level or above rather than the company or platoon initiative. This was also why fire control was centralized, so brigade and regiment commanders were more in control of where and when rounds were falling.
The upside is a rather dangerous foe to face in the opening stages of any operation as units know where they’re supposed to be, what they’re supposed to be doing, and high command has an extremely clear picture of what’s going on and can adjust plans accordingly. The downside is it can be slow to react and higher level officers getting taken out can have catastrophic short term results as new officers have to suddenly get into a loop their predecessor was often barely managing as is, with less time and less experience.
Which is why the "doctrine" ultimately functions better with good soldiers. Good soldiers don't have to blindly follow orders, they have the flexibility to respond in real-time. It gives Ukraine a serious advantage in speed.
I suspect it is political edict: they've been told to counterattack the Ukrainians aggressively.
>units know where they’re supposed to be, what they’re supposed to be doing, and high command has an extremely clear picture of what’s going on and can adjust plans accordingly
Everyone knows everything. Ass is grass.
Why do you think the Russians can’t pull off Soviet fricking tactics.
Anon, have you been paying attention over the past eighteen moths? I'm not sure the Russians could pull off *Russian* tactics at this point.
They've degenerated thanks to corruption, inexperience, and sheer incompetence. They can ape the Soviet model but it's clear they grasp none of the substance behind it: it's all "charge forward and fire lots of artillery."
It's why Ukraine runs rings against them.
My brother in Christ even the Romans knew to save the best for the last line of battle. It was actually considered a *failing* if they had to use their veterans.
“Don’t expose your best troops early” has been a thing for over 2000 years.
Russian units have been overreporting their force size
If anything, they have been doing the opposite. Accurate reporting would be embarrassing for them as it would highlight that they've been put on the defensive by an outnumbered and outgunned defender. It will also highlight their enormous casualties.
Russian forces aren't a match for Ukraine's. Even their "elite" units are still led by idiots and bound to the same absurd doctrines as everyone else. They just do those predictable moves more competently. It doesn't change the fact Ukraine knows the same manual as Russia by heart.
I wouldn't go that far, but it's certainly a fact that ~2.5m Russians are struggling against ~700k Ukrainians.
Overreporting is more likely because of fraud. More men = more funds for those men = more money in commander’s pocket if those men don’t actually exist.
Embarrassment isn’t a thing; just figure out a new absurd lie.
Eh
Frick, I missed that gem
Good stuff my man.
Just to make sure I understand correctly: the Russians committed the 127th Motor Rifle Division (in part or in whole) to push back a single AFU *Brigade*? And all they did was slow them down and then withdraw?
Didn’t a single American division capture Baghdad? And a vatBlack person division can’t recapture a village of 500 people
Trust the plan.
[Z]
This webm gets funnier everytime I see it. How can they live with the shame? Surely they don't truly believe they're fighting the whole of NATO.
>How can t̶h̶e̶y̶ Putin live with the shame?
The video was made AFTER Vlad claimed to Poroshenko that:
“If I wanted, Russian troops could be not only in Kiev, but also Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw and Bucharest in two days,”
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/putin-russian-troops-could-be-in-vilnius-or-warsaw-in-two-days/
And it turns out the answer is pretty simple: Putin has no shame, no small wonder from a guy who escaped Dresden back to Saint Petersburg with a washing machine in his car.
This story is about how on the night of December 5-6, 1989, in Dresden, KGB Lieutenant Colonel Putin went out alone with a pistol against an enraged and intoxicated crowd of Germans from schnapps, beer and the destruction of the Berlin Wall and did not allow the rioters to enter the KGB building THE USSR.
That night a huge crowd of 5000 people. destroyed the building of the German intelligence Stasi. They took everything. Even archival files and documents with the names of GDR intelligence officers. The fate of many of these people was terrible, because the archives were in the hands of the mob. The building was completely destroyed. Across the wall from this building was the residency of the KGB of the USSR.
The station chief, seeing the crowd, fled. Realizing that the crowd would now burst into the KGB building, the lieutenant colonel who remained senior in rank called the neighboring military unit asking for help. The general replied that he could not give fighters without a command from Moscow. And Moscow is silent, no one knows what to do.
And the crowd is already bursting into the KGB yard. 5000 people Drunk people with bottles of beer.
The lieutenant colonel, who remained in charge, goes out to the crowd and tries to stop the angry people alone, turning to them: "The fact that the Berlin Wall fell is the good will of our country! Here is the building that we are guarding. This is the property of the USSR! We are officers - we are doing your duty." There were only 8 officers left. They stood at the windows with weapons.
And the lieutenant colonel who came out was blocking the way of the crowd with a pistol. But the crowd kept pushing and then the lieutenant colonel said: "I am an officer. I have 12 rounds left. I will leave one cartridge for myself. But, fulfilling my duty, I will shoot. I cannot do otherwise - I am an officer!" Having said this, he began to slowly climb the stairs to the entrance to the building. He walked slowly, fully expecting someone to throw a stone or a bottle at his back. And when he got up and turned around, he saw that the crowd began to disperse. None of the Germans entered the KGB building that night.
Many people in Dresden still tell this story. This story, which became a legend in Dresden, is still alive today. The Germans proudly say that they then obeyed an unknown lieutenant colonel, whose name at that time was not known to anyone. Now this lieutenant colonel is known throughout the world. President of Russia. Vladimir Putin.
Fake and gay… like Putler!
The frick was lil Putin carrying with 12 round in it? One of those double-stack Makarovs??
Behold the final death of the Russian military: they're going to wipe themselves out by ABANDONING their own defensive positions.....to do "Muh Counterattack" and get glassed.
Now comes the funny part. It was 68th Jaeger and 35th Marine brigades who were fighting in this area. Those are "old" units. We have only seen new formed brigades in that bothched breaktrhough Russians keeps spamming. So the question is: Where's the rest of them?
Has anyone checked on Belgorod lately?
Supposedly Kadyrov and the TikTokers just showed up. I'm on the edge of my seat to see how it plays out.
could you imagine 16 months ago that we would be talking about ukraine and russia fighting back and forth over a village, about how well russia could stop ukraine and the rest of the front being frozen, while russia has to deal with insurgencies over the border?
yeah
I am not the only schizo here believing that that Zapo drive to Mariupol/Melitopol is a distraction and will soon be followed up by another push in the north, right?
Ukraine shows nowhere near enough commitment in the south for it to be an actual offensive.
Almost certainly there will be other pushes in the north. But maybe not
It's either Lughansk or Hulyaipole in my opinion.
The Leopard 2s are just bait that make the Russians go into a frenzy. All while the leo1s and Challys are held back and can be deployed at a moments notice. With the short distances in mind, they can even be redeployed from north to south in a matter of days.
It's obviously not Russia, Donetzk or Lughansk city so not much is left.
Russians are so fixated on the Leos and Bradleys, they're not looking at the rest of the board.
Neither do we because we have no idea where the frick the majority of the pieces are tbh
Leo1s aren't even in country yet are they? And Chally's were sent in pretty limited numbers from what I remember. I won't deny it's possible they have something else big brewing, but it could just they elected to start with a conservative application of what they have available on a single front to prevent losing too much when they inevitably suffer some losses against the defense line. I think everyone was expecting them to something clever like they did with the two pronged offensive last year, so they may have elected to stick to the more straight forward approach this time.
Though I guess you can argue the limited counter attacks around the flanks of Bakhmut and the cheeky shenanigans they're pulling with the help of the BPR folks in Belgorod are quasi second prongs, they don't have the same ring to them as an actual second front the way the Kharkiv gesture of good will did.
I imagine NATO people told them not to go all in at the start and to send in the rest later when the defensive troops are tired
Ukraine has placed some of its best armored vehicles at Zapo but hardly ALL of them. That tells me it's a trick.
Ukraine has something else in mind.
You're wrong, they will attack in the south, they are just trying to grind down the defense as much as possibly before delivering the actual blow. They have a maximum troop count they can supply, so everyone else that isn't elite spearhead is sent for meat grinder to soften the russian up. Brutal, but effective
It's too obvious a play. The Ukrainians will strike somewhere else too.
That's not what the Ukrainians are doing at all; no meatgrinder tactics. They've been very careful with the NATO-trained brigades, and there's 8-9 of them that still haven't made an appearance.
So far it's been pinpoint strikes, bite-and-hold tactics, and combined arms that they've been using to hit Russians who come in for a counterattack.
And Russians are stupid enough to keep playing into Ukraine's hands by counterattacking on OPEN ground.
Not to mention they’ve apparently been exploiting their advantage in NVGs and thermals to stage night attacks.
It's telling that even though the Russians have finally released more footage than the ones in picrel's meme, night footage has been scarce. And the AFU photos showing themselves in Makarivka are daytime, implying that the Russians were forced to retreat at night. NVG, thermals, and quality optics are probably a big force multiplier.
Has any night footage been released in this war? I can't recall of any from either side.
The AA battles technically count. I haven't seen any night combat footage from the frontline tho.
Unless that one thermal sniper vid is.
the view through nightvision goggles technically falls under ITAR, wonder if that has some bearing on it or just that the guys getting nightvision tend to be the most disciplined etc
As someone who has had the privilege of being able to try out an AN/PVS-14, they're basically fricking hacks. Fighting an enemy at night that doesn't have them while you do is like putting Mike Tyson up against a toddler.
I can't imagine what kind of a horrific nightmare it would be to try and fight someone at night who is rocking an AN/PSQ-20 or better.
Frick, is that ever crisp. That's gorgeous. I have never looked through a 1PN96MT-02 myself, but I can only imagine that an AN/PSQ-20 is what the 1PN96MT-02 jerk offs to before it cries itself to sleep.
This really DOES have that "reverse engineered from alien technology" feel when compared with Russian gear.
>Verification not required.
Ukrainians have good intelligence helping them, if Russia commits too many troops to the south, they can cut around their moronginot through donetsk and go south, if they don't commit enough troops, they'll send the army south after the probing troops markdown minefields and wear down the defenses. The main point is getting Crimea, there is not much left to take but Luhansk in the north.
counterattack going splendidly it seems
so you are telling me that.. in war.. there are POWs?
Those are captured Russians moron
Frick disregard me my brain is smooth
Argument still applies.
We know Russia's checking action failed (spectacularly, if their own sources are to be believed), but a couple of prisoners are not that important.
If it was "lacking" Ukkies would be 10-20km further south by now. It is at worst "roughly as capable as expected", considering the Ukkies expected a tough offensive ahead of them due to lack of western AD and IFVs.
For 9-12 months of goddamn defensive prep? The Russian lines should have held much, much longer. If that's their prepared defense, I'd hate to see what their hasty defense looks like, lol.
The channel has Rusnja in its name. It's completely forgiveable to assume that it's a Russian channel if you don't know any Russian beyond deciphering cyrillic.
That said, the channel has tons of videos from Russian POWs. Interesting
It's ogre, we are demoralized and mighty Russia has risen from her knees. We must surrender unconditionally.
Everything from Dublin to Vladivostok is now rightful Russian clay.
>Cork, Limerick and Galway get to be free
>not going straight to ChatGPT with your queries
ngmi
>2 POWs
Guess the ziggers had to put together soemthign after yesterdays footage of multiple groups getting taken prisoner.
Disregard, I suck wieners and also blame being tired.
You'd think people would learn Ukrainian by now, or learn to recognize uniforms
It find it funny how they tape up their noses like piggies
Putin admitted Russia has already lost 54 tanks as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Things are going really badly and they need to turn them around fast or this is going to turn into another classic Russian feint soon.
Turn it around with what, exactly? Order the elites at Topkek out of defense to "ride to the rescue"?
So Russia has lost 108 tanks, got it
Almost there, poor vatniks forgot a second defensive line
Zaporizhzhia looks pretty doomed https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668659083132514334
Eh, not exactly. there's two or three trenches there a few hundred meters apart.
But there's not a fallback major defensive network after that other than the isolated hardpoints. Most of those look like checkpoints at crossroads, and more suited to stop partisan activity than a breakthrough. If the AFU penetrates the major line(s) at any point on the front, there's not much more RuAF fortifications until the coastline. So the first 25km is 90% of the job.
Honestly, if all they take is Chernihivka, they still cut the railway supply and can start choking out everything west of that. I don't think the rail line on the Kerch Bridge can supply 100,000 troops with arty shells indefinitely.
boggles the mind they put some of those fortifications so close to settlements without incorporating the settlements into the defensive lines
>without incorporating the settlements into the defensive lines
Ziggers deported all civilians from boder villiages and took their homes.
Ok, and? How does that justify putting your defensive lines behind a series of building instead of in front of them?
My point being, its all cool, but its mostly zigger incompetence, just like first weeks of war when they were murdering civilians and destroyed by ambushes, because they expected free ride.
Kherson Offensive was different and bloodier.
From what I've read, the Russians have tried to grab every scrap of higher ground and incorporate it into the Surovikin line, in the hopes of getting an edge over an AFU channeled into the lowlands. It looks pretty tough.
The flip side of that is that Ukraine only needs to get one breakthrough for the counteroffensive to succeed. If they take a punch to the face in five fronts but a sixth one makes it through, that's a victory.
>Big scary Surovikin line
The Ukrainians will figure out how to overcome it, probably via explosive overkill.
WHAT STUPIDITY! They must have spent more time fricking conscripts than actually building sufficient defensive lines, lol. Typical corrupt Vatniks, always cutting corners.
Today is the day btw.
On June 14, 2014, at approximately 1:00 a.m., a Ukrainian IL-76 was shot down near Luhansk. The executors were mercenaries from the Russian sabotage group PMK "Wagner".
40 paratroopers of the 25th separate Dnipropetrovsk airborne brigade and 9 crew members. Eternal memory to you, brothers.
Later, on July 23, 2020, following a call from Zelenskyi's top entourage, the operation to detain the Wagnerites was merged with the Kremlin.
And one of the developers of the special operation to capture the Wagnerites, former military intelligence officer Roman Chervinskyi, is spending his 50th night in captivity (Ze prison) today.
Mikhail MakFol posted a thread.
https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1668630288443006979
>vodkarunes
it's more or less saying
>"At this point no matter how things go russia won't gain any strategic benefit from this war"
...well I could've told you that a year ago.
Screencap this shit. I am calling it now. Ukrainian offensive is making an intentionally obvious push to Staromlynivka. They will draw Russian reserves,and units from surrounding towns to it in anticipation of the Ukrainian push on the town. Likely, Russians will re-direct other troops from the AO in that direction as well.
Then Ukrainians will push somewhere else while Russian resources are tied up in the move to Staromlynivka.
Bonus: The flooding of Kherson is an economic issue for Ukraine but as its a flooded wasteland, Ukraine can remove troops from it to be added to the offensive, a tactical net positive for Ukr.
Source: It was revealed to me in a dream.
Honestly I'm pretty sure this is all an elaborate feint. The Russians are being duped. They're like bulls running at the first red cape they see.
If we're doing hot takes to be screencapped, here's mine:
Ukraine is ultimately going to work over the Russian logistics and supply chain by going after rail transit and using precision long range munitions on ammo and fuel dumps. If and when they score a big breakthrough, it will be because the Russian artillery covering them became so starved for shells that they couldn't keep up arty duels long enough to repel an advance.
Without artillery ammo, Russia is fricked. Their infantry are worthless without it.
yeah, this is my guess, as well. those supplies have got to keep coming. Russia does not have an equivalent to storm shadow and gmlrs. That's where pressure will be applied.
I know it's early, but I suspect we're about to see one of the most lopsided military contests develop in recent memory between big nations.
I see this getting progressively worse for Russia as the counteroffensive goes on.
Remember the Karkiv-Kherson back and forth last year. I don't think it's a feint. It's an attack designed to create a lose-lose situation. Either the Russians don't throw in enough reserves to stop it and the Melitopol-Tokmak rail line gets cut. Or the Russians throw in enough to stop it... and then have no reserves left when the Ukrainians launch another attack elsewhere.
That does fit Ukraine's pattern. Force Russia into a no-win scenario.
Holy frick Russians are so stupid, allowing themselves to be spread too thin AGAIN.
Kobiyashi Maru confirmed
How big is the Russian garrison in Crimea? I’m sure Ukraine cutting off Melitopol will be a huge hit to the forces placed there.
Cutting that railway means everything in Kherson, Crimea and Zapo needs to be supplied via the Kerch bridge. It's a logistical nightmare even before any possibility of the Ukrainians attacking the bridge is factored in.
Exactly, and that's why I think Russia will fight tooth and nail to avoid that.
An anon earlier in the thread thought it might have been more of a political decision, and I don't disagree with that. But if the defense posture is weaker than anticipated, those Russian counterattacks aren't stupid, they're a grim necessity. I don't think it's going to be over for some weeks.
what is the minimum distance the UAF needs to cover or town they need to capture in order to put Mariupol within solid HIMARS range?
200x more than they've gotten so far.
They'd need zero more distance to get it in range. Already have it. Consult picrel.
>200x more than they've gotten so far.
200x 6.5km... that would put them well past Moscow, not quite all the way to St. Petersburg, though.
If they actually could huck HIMARS into the center of Moscow, would they? Or would the Americans be shitting bricks and begging them to stop?
They'd be tempted, but it would cut the flow of future supply of American gear like HIMARS and thus be a terrible move long-term.
The Bongs, on the other hand, would probably write a politely worded yet sadistic letter to the Russian consulate informing them that they actively encourage the AFU to slap the shit out of anything in Russia they feel deserves it.
>"Indeed, we almost considered setting them a quota. Get bent.
> yours most cordially, etc."
god bless the british, and to a lesser extent the french and germans as well
I read some BBC article about the UK and USA disagreeing over Ukraine backing the Russian groups attacking actual Russian territory but I thought the UK would be on the anti side and the USA the pro side. Nice to hear it's the other way around.
This war truly has been a gift to the UK's reputation.
The Ukrainians have a 50 mile rocket for it; they could fire from Vuhledar right now and Mariupol's coastline would be close to but still within the radius.
i hope they get closer so they can start bombing the ever living frick out of that city.
i want every zigger there to go to sleep knowing there’s an ever increasing chance that a tungsten ball will scramble his brains in the middle of the night.
Goddamn these glowie containment threads are weird. You guys are all in here huffing your own farts.
Somewhere there's an air conditioned room of twerpy chud-faced little guys in fatigues, typing this shit out 24/7.