Lets take a vote on Russias intentions in belarus

Let’s see if we really get war here in PrepHole. Is Russia’s current Belarus gambit simply an attempt to tie down Ukrainian troops in the northwest and ease up the Donbas, or is it legit going to include an offensive operation?

We’ll take a vote. To avoid samefagging I won’t count anything that doesn’t explain why.

The options are:
A) Fake distraction
B) real invasion prep

I vote for distraction. It’s clear Russia has redefined victory conditions now to be the Donbas. I don’t think they even have the capability to spend resources preparing and planning a real northern offensive

  1. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    A
    Its just too retarded
    terrain is unfavorable
    Belarussian troops too unmotivated and a risk to the operation
    though I was also one of the people who was sure that Russia wasn't gonna invade because it would be retarded so take it with a grain of salt

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      >though I was also one of the people who was sure that Russia wasn't gonna invade because it would be retarded so take it with a grain of salt
      Same here. Good point

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      >Its just too retarded
      >terrain is unfavorable
      >Belarussian troops too unmotivated and a risk to the operation
      That screams new Russian front opening this weekend all day every day.

      • 1 week ago
        Anonymous

        Agree. Artillery cityyy

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      It's a 50-50 chance..
      But I'll vote A..

      Putin is desperate to get help in Ukraine.
      Luka is desperate to stay out of Ukraine.

      Belarus is only feigning support and Russia knows this.
      At the same time, Russia can't afford to lose allies right now.
      So.. Russia will make a real effort, but Belarus will keep coming up with endless delays..

      >Its just too retarded
      The entire Russian operation has been a demonstration of retardation...
      The only reason I'm leaning that it's a distraction is that Luka isn't as retarded as Putin is...

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      >Its just too retarded
      Thats exactly why i vote for B

  2. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    I doubt monke will let go of Kyiv for as long as he breathes

  3. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    They are definitely there to distract and also to train soldiers for deployment elsewhere outside of any other buildup concerns.

    That border area of Ukraine and Belarus is probably among the hardest areas in all of Europe to march through. Monke is unpredictable, though.

  4. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    B
    Because A is just what they'll be expecting.

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous
  5. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    The best Belarus could do is lend armor and artillery to the Russians, because Belarus has a pretty tiny and unmotivated army.

  6. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    It was B, then A, then B, then A, then B, then A, then B

    Russia always pulls this "will they won't they" shit every single time they caught caught in the act. Whatever they do it what they will claim their original plan was the whole time and silly Western spies fell for yet another masterful Russian ruse. It entirely depends on Ukraine's response. No buildup it was always a genius stroke of tactical brilliance to open a second front. If Ukraine does buildup on the border it was excellent Russian mind games against brainless kholhols.

  7. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    They are going to invade. And good for them because this war has ruined PrepHole and I just want the nafochuds to leave.

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      > implying that a Russian attack from Belorussia will reduce the spam going on this board

  8. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    Belarussian involvement could lead to Luka's government collapsing so I really, really hope they try. Russia losing with Belarus and Ukraine as allies in a matter of 10 years would be hilarious.

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      Russia will annex Belarus if the government turns.

      • 1 week ago
        Anonymous

        With what troops?

        • 1 week ago
          Anonymous

          milion freshly mobilized mobiks

          • 1 week ago
            Anonymous

            I'm sure that will work out well. I hope they do just that.

            • 1 week ago
              Anonymous

              before Bakhmut and Soledar i would treat it as a joke but sadly now it seems entirely possible...

              • 1 week ago
                Anonymous

                Mobiks weren't involved in those fights. They are only food for plugging gaps in defensive lines and need support from "real" units to not get pushed back.

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      Russia is already losing support from Armenia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and goddamn near anyone else with multiple brain cells.

  9. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    According to retired polish general there wil be noattack from Belarus, because the fact is there are very little russian soldiers there- not enough to make any attack. The media cover every their move and people think there are hundreds of thousands russians in Belarus. This is their way to hide their plans for a real offensive. Russians are gathering troops for an autumn's offensive which will be from the north ease and east. They're resupplying their stocks of ammo since few months. The West needs to act and stop talking or there will be a difficult time for Ukrainian Armed Forces.
    10-20 Leopards won't do shit, Ukrainians needs many more.

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      Fuck off beggar stop trying to be choosy

  10. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    Fuck yeah, WW!!!.

  11. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    both:

    if Ukies react by moving enough forces, Rus will simply sit there happily tying them down without invasion

    but if Ukr do nothing Russians will invade threatening supply routes from Pol in the process - its not end of the world but it still will hurt

  12. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    I for one am sick to death of hearing the word 'Belarus' it's high time we pushed there shit in. They need to pick a side not just sit on the france.

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      Why can't the west attack Belarus? They don't even have nukes. Can't bongland just bomb them or something.

      • 1 week ago
        Anonymous

        Same reason the West didn't send an entire NATO army to Ukraine with an ultimatum for Russia to gfto within 24 hours: pussy Chamberlain politicians don't want to """"""""EsCaLaTe""""""""

        • 1 week ago
          Anonymous

          Not wanting to start WW2 is a good thing.

          Besides in this analogy, it's like if when Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia everyone dumped a ton of guns on the country, which didn't happen. It also didn't happen in the Spanish Civil War when the Italians and Germans sent tank battalions to help Franco, and only really the USSR sent anything to the Popular Front.

          • 1 week ago
            Anonymous

            Popular Front deserved to lose, both for bring retarded and morally abhorent

            • 1 week ago
              Anonymous

              >NOOOO YOU CAN'T JUST KILL PRIESTS AND LANDLORDS THAT'S MORALLY WRONG

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      they have picked a side when Rus forces invaded from Belarus - Ukr did not respond in force because even if Belarus is small it has army that would need neutralizing - not something Ukr can handle in addition to Rus invasion forces...

      • 1 week ago
        Anonymous

        Yeh but why doesn't Europe just attack Belarus or at least hit its government/military infrastructure I've had enough of them now.

        • 1 week ago
          Anonymous

          They're in a defensive alliance with Russia. Invading them triggers war with Russia, which is bad because nukes.

          Also remember NATO is defensive in nature. An offensive war means no-one else is under obligation to join. This is why we call them freedom fries instead of french fries.

          • 1 week ago
            Anonymous

            >They're in a defensive alliance with Russia
            Russia won't do shit. Hell, they sent their thoughts and prayers when that little shithole from CSTO, forgot the name, had a violent border dispute with other shithole

            • 1 week ago
              Anonymous

              Both nations in that border dispute (two of the 'stan countries) were both CSTO members. Now Russia should have sorted that out, but that didn't trigger the defensive alliance.

              Also we don't want to start WW3. And invading Russia rarely pans out well for anyone even absent the nukes problem.

              • 1 week ago
                Anonymous

                I was pretty sure one of them was backed by Turkey but I might be wrong

              • 1 week ago
                Anonymous

                He's talking about Armenia

              • 1 week ago
                Anonymous

                Right. The other border clash that happened. Forgot about that.

  13. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    real invasion prep. they've been trying to get belarus involved for a long time now and they still labor under the notion that taking Kiev will end the war but they really need to take Lviv to stop supplies. it's a stupid idea because the border is already heavily fortified with loads of tank trenches and prepared positions but losses don't mean anything to russia.

    expect it to be on another fucking meme date like february 2nd or 22nd

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      Watch it be March second, 2.3.23

  14. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    People posting “both” need to stop being smart alec gays. Yes it depends on how Ukraine acts. Part of the prediction here is how they’ll react and how that affects Russia etc etc. sitting on the fence is meaningless here. You’re just saying “idk”

  15. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    A)
    The parts at the Black Sea are more important. Kyiv might be nice but Putine needs the southern region more.

  16. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    I think they will, because Putin will give Luka some kf his private guard and he'll keep whoever else is loyal,.and throw anyone capable of toppling him at Ukraine to let them die to appease putin

  17. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    My Prediction:
    Russia will continue to mobilise and threaten an attack from Belarus for several weeks as they build up and stockpile as many vehicles and ammo as possible whilst they continue their grinding offensives in and around Bakmut.

    Then when they have 500,000 mobilised reserves waiting plus 340,000 currently engaged in the Donbass, they will move to Belarus and launch a propaganda offensive about attacking Lviv or Poland attacking it etc, along with troop movements. Then after that they launch a large offensive with an additional 150,000 troops in the Donbass to fix the UAF, after 2-3 weeks of very heavy fighting with mindless and highly aggressive attacks, they then launch a 350,000 man offensive from Belarus to Lviv/Lutsk as soon as they are railed their (ideally this phase starts early summer).

    The Russians will throw everything they can in these two offensives as their economy starts collapsing in mid 2023 (keep an eye on banks like Sherbank entering insolvency and potential hyper inflation to bail them out), this will be the beginning of the end for Putin and Russia if Ukraine is able to hold out until the autumn rains begin the Russians should suffer catastrophic casualties, hopefully the West doesn't pussy out and gives Ukraine as many weapons as humanly possible.

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      I'll go with option A).

      >real support from Belarus unlikely, as it would destabilise the country, which Lukashenko can't risk
      >gaining anything of value (Lviv, Kiev) unlikely
      >the force needed to make a genuine offensive would be much better served in the Donbass, as gaining control of the region is the most likely acceptable victory condition for Russia

      picrel

  18. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    Real invasion prep consisting of attempts to bully local Russian units and Belarusian troops into engaging into a suicide offensive. Just like the Odessa landing never happened because the officers refused to obey orders.

  19. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    It would be really retarded, no way they are doing this, they are doing this to intimidate and make political gains
    Is what I said before the full scale invasion last year.

    This would mean the end of Lukashenko.

  20. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    A)

    It's cheaper to make an invasion seem likely and tie up resources than try to invade as a feint, which is what any invasion would be. Russia failed to take Kiev with it's best troops at the start of the war, even should the Belarussians help out, at best you get bogged down out of Kiev. This doesn't solve the major problems for the Russians-
    1. Western aid to Ukraine
    2. Russia's fucked up command structure
    3. Undertrained and equipped soldiers

    Ergo it won't really allow for significant movement on the lines they want expanded to grab more territory, and they can't annex Kiev suburbs without a land-route to them. Ergo any invasion would be a massive sink of resources that at best just staunches bleeding on the fronts they do care about- which would be better served by just putting those same resources on those same fronts.

  21. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    A and it will fail misserably, because when has Russia ever done anything that was strategically sound during this whole war.

  22. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    I am going all in on A
    If Russia does it anyways I win eitherway because their gonna get assraped though I may lose all my virtual internet points
    Literally a win-win choice

  23. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    C) dun dun.

  24. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    >It’s clear Russia has redefined victory conditions now to be the Donbas.
    They never said this

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      It’s almost definitely true. Even if one would grant that Putin has designs on other targets in Ukraine it’s obvious once Russia gets a major goal and has the massive temptation to end this shitshow that’s what happens. That’s the only plausible opportunity for him to get off his high horse and he, and more importantly everyone else in Russia, knows this

  25. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    >Do I think Belarus will join Russia for an attack on the Ukraine? No
    >Do I think this is hohol propaganda more than anything? Yes
    >Do I want the propaganda to succeed in swaying NATO(ofc primarily the mutts) to dump cargo ship loads of equipment including tanks/fighters/etc into the hohol's laps so that they'll get +5 orc slaying bonus and eradicate vatmorons even faster?
    Absolutely
    >What if I'm wrong and Belarus and Russia attack Ukraine?
    Even better, the hohols will effectively have enough vatmoron corpses to begin building a new containment building to contain the Chernobyl containment building that was just finished in 2019.

  26. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    A northern front against a vastly more experienced, competent, and deadly Ukraine through terrain thoroughly unsuited to the type of army Russia fields.

    Utterly retarded.

    They're going to do it, aren't they?

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      Is that from the video where some stock market analyst said he's gonna work as Santa since the market is fucked anyway and then started drinking?

  27. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    I'm gonna go with B.
    It feels like it's a really stupid idea, but that just seems to make it more credible.

  28. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    A

    Its more useful as a base for launching missiles. Any change in Belarus will be to Russia's disadvantage given Lukashenko's weakness, and risks forcing them into an occupation with Ukrainians helping arm a resistance.

  29. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    A
    An offensive there would be an absolute mess, specially a joint russian-belarusian since the belarusian army is a joke.

  30. 1 week ago
    IT programmer

    They're military exercises. In 2022 they waited for the exercises to end before invading.
    There's no surprise advantage or anything, if there was any purpose to this it's preparing an invasion if things aren't solved next year or the year after.

    • 1 week ago
      Anonymous

      Two more years! Trust the plan. Z

  31. 1 week ago
    Anonymous

    Why doesn't a NATO country just go to Ukraine to do military drills with the UAF?

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