Latest Jomini just dropped

I love the smell of fresh maneuver warfare in the morning.

  1. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Bonus non-Jomini map that he retweeted:

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      So has the offensive finally stalled? Or is there another op sec blackout where the Ukrainians are not reporting their gains?

      • 4 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        blackout and rumors

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Wouldn't be shocked if ukes pulled the brakes and let logistics catch up. I doubt russia would be able to erect a strong defensive line in a week, especially when the troops manning that line have been mauled so recently.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          The "line" is essentially Loughanda and Donbabwe gopniks with WWII gear.

          Except maybe some strongpoints like Lyman, which can be bypassed and encircled

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            Bypassing Lyman could be doable, but going much further and they risk Russia ramming a response from Sievierodonetsk up their neck if they don't start throwing down lines. They also need to worry about Valuyki up north.

            >Ukraine took the eastern bank THEN didn't push any further.
            How passable is the Oskil at this time of year? Crossing to the east without advancing would leave them open to a counter attack, especially if the Russians could manage artillery support on the river crossings/pontoons to prevent Ukraine from pulling back

            At Kupyansk it's drivable. Not mud but not much deeper. That's why the Russians there got fucked on the east bank too. They also took some intact bridges further south toward Izyum.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          I have a feeling Ukraine has enough in terms of logistics anon. They might only need half a day if that.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >pulled the brakes and let logistics catch up
          This was announced on Sunday.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Almost certainly they're consolidating to the West of the Oskil. However, more southern troops are crossing the Siversky Donets, which would leave the Russian position just East of the Oskil vulnerable to a flanking attack.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        It's a tough call, whether you keep pushing the fleeing forces or pause and consolidate logis. But terrain has no value, your troops and equipment do, so as long as they keep getting kills and captures for minimal losses, if it works why fix it? - they have to keep going. Even into Russian territory.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >keep going. Even into Russian territory
          priority should be slaughtering troops caught in the Izyum kettle

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >if it works why fix it?
          Because Ukraine hasn't secured supply lines and defensive lines for those supply lines so there's always a risk of getting flanked from the north or south and having trouble retreating. It's called biting off more than you can chew.

          That said, if they think they'd be mobile enough no matter what because the Russians are in full retreat mode and they're willing to risk having to wriggle out of a flanking or send a response force, it might be hilarious to just keep going as fast and as far as possible, send anything they capture/rescue backwards, and just immediately haul ass as soon as the spooks spot trouble on the spy sats and blow up anything they couldn't take. Trade extra supplies/damage/captures/rescues for not having as much time to set up their defensive lines for a Russian response (if there is one).

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Is nobody paying attention to this image? It basically says the Ukrainians have made about 50% additional gains since reaching Oskil.

      I don't believe it's true, tough Jomini shared it.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Yes, we know, anon, and yes, the rumours are indeed that the Russians have been / are being completely ejected from the Kharkiv oblast, minus whoever's still bottled up in the Izyum-Lyman area.
        >have made about 50% additional gains
        The blue arrows are more like intended movements. The front line is very porous and nowise a contiguous line.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        It's literally fake or pure guesswork. The guy who made it was the same guy who made block-by-block(!) maps of the battle of sievierodonetsk. He literally just draws front lines and arrows based on vibes.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Which is based, just tune yourself into the news, try to get a holistic "feel" of what is happening right now and just draw away. I do that all the time in my job.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            >t. least insane architect

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              Meanwhile the building science guy down the hall looks at the result, mentally consults his internal table of shear capacities of a couple varieties of concrete, and pops his first antacid of the day at 10 a.m.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            Rybar, is that you?

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >He literally just draws front lines and arrows based on
          rumours, but some of it is accurate
          like for example, the 4th Guards definitely lost tanks near Izyum a few days ago

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      If UA is able to capture Sieverodonetsk this week, for Russia is over.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        I think they'd settle for Lyman, Lysychansk, and maybe a bite out of the Svatove-Rubizhne corridor. That shit will take a hot minute to grind down if Russia isn't retreating there too and leaving LPR on their own.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          God. How fast would the current Ukrainian army steamroll the DPR/LPR forces if Russia actually pulled all their forces AND their "troops on vacation" too?

          Between both trying to hold more territory than they had at the start of the war, both getting used for fodder to the point of having been on conscription for months, both having no morale, and Ukraine having tons of battle experience, better gear, NATO support, sky high morale, and volunteers out the ass...it'd be like trying to stop a bullet with wet tissue.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            If this actually happened Ukraine would take LDNR in a week or two. Depending on how fast they can move.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Chuck Pfarer just dresses up RUMINT I wouldn't buy what he's selling. There's no evidence Ukraine crossed the Oskil in force.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        There was rumors Savatove was abandoned after coming under artillery fire. That's probably where he got shit. At the very least they secured eastern Kupyansk in force. I'd be shocked if they didn't secure the entire road down to Izyum on the eastern bank as well as the road east to Lyman. Izyum was a giant bulge they had under siege and all those troops are then free to come forward and shorten their lines. They'd genuinely be dumb not to even before factoring in they'd be taking bridgeheads and chasing down routing troops.

        The fuckhuge arrow in the eastern gap is suspect though. But that's basically a hole lot of nothing on the map so it wouldn't be hard to take if Ukraine wanted it.

  2. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    i thought kupyansk was now under ukrainian control?

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      It is. What makes you think otherwise? The image makes it rather clear.

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Russian fled across the river line UA didn't push any further

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Incorrect. Ukraine took the eastern bank THEN didn't push any further. Although they didn't do that immediately so you have to factor in time lapse on those arrows.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >Ukraine took the eastern bank THEN didn't push any further.
          How passable is the Oskil at this time of year? Crossing to the east without advancing would leave them open to a counter attack, especially if the Russians could manage artillery support on the river crossings/pontoons to prevent Ukraine from pulling back

  3. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    where is he getting information about russian units around belgorod?

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      he says its OSINT but never posts methods or sources in public. maybe he does on the discord but i am not a chud so i don't know how discord works and don't want to use it
      I can tell you this, if it were my job (and I have had similar jobs), it would be a kernel of verifiable info, a framework of justified assumptions and a whole lot of educating guessing.
      If you're right more often than you're wrong and you sound confident, you can be an expert analyst in anything

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        > No discord
        That means you dont go to school, university or u do competitive gaming

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Good, all those things are gay.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          He said he isn't a chud.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          I'm just not into grooming children.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        It does make a lot of sense. Anyone really in the know would not risk it posting shit on the interwebs for some clicks.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      he says its OSINT but never posts methods or sources in public. maybe he does on the discord but i am not a chud so i don't know how discord works and don't want to use it
      I can tell you this, if it were my job (and I have had similar jobs), it would be a kernel of verifiable info, a framework of justified assumptions and a whole lot of educating guessing.
      If you're right more often than you're wrong and you sound confident, you can be an expert analyst in anything

      unit markings and Telegram postings

      honestly, he has no reason to make shit up and believe me it's harder than it looks, but his map must surely be a mixture of confirmed photo evidence and sheer rumour

  4. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I'm not sure about the defeat of russians at lyman yet. I am pretty sure they are outflanked and will need to retreat eventually, but so far they are probably holding on

  5. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    What in the fuck happened to the bulk of the forces in Izyum?

    I know most made it across the river.
    I know some moved to assist Kupyansk while it was falling.
    I know a general retreat was called so they should have hauled ass if they weren't encircled.

    Other than the Kupyansk relief which wasn't the main force, did any make it out?
    Were they captured/killed/allowed safe passage?
    Which direction? Kupyansk>Valuyki or out east?

    I needed fucking sleep and I don't know if I missed it or what but it's like the forces fucking evaporated and everyone just stopped fucking talking about them at some point? Do we just not know yet?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      We know nothing
      Ukes aren't saying
      Vatniks claim they all made it out alive, not to worry, came back to port under their own power

      You know what that means...

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >I needed fucking sleep and I don't know if I missed it or what but it's like the forces fucking evaporated and everyone just stopped fucking talking about them at some point? Do we just not know yet?
      Afaik pretty much all escaped, though reportedly the Ukies also gained "a lot" of PoW. They left their heavy equipment behind though.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I remeber seeing some rumors that Russians in Izyum were allowed to leave when the lay down their weapons.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      PoW numbers are unclear. But all circumstantial evidence points to many units dropping their weapons and running for their lives. Lots of straight up abandoned heavy equipment and ammo dumps as well as defensive positions with half eaten rations and uniforms strewn about. We've also seen videos of fleeing columns ambushed by SOF or pounded by artillery. Very likely that most of the men that did escape will not be combat effective for a long time.

  6. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    LNR and DNR are done. It's over. They have no fighting age people left.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      The main problem for them is not a lack of people, they still have some units. But those units aren't being supplied adequately the conditions.

      Some cities in the donetsk region has no water for a long period of time. And people are asked not to drink dirty water from the central heating system.

      What king of support can those cities provide to its troops? And Russia gives the bare minimum.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      The positive for Ukraine when it recaptures their territory is they won't have to deal with the traitors as Russia has kindly killed them all already.

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