Is this map bullshit? I see a lot of ziggers spamming this defense line map of Zaporizhzhia and how they are retreating to defensive positions. Is there any truth to this?
Is this map bullshit?
Is this map bullshit? I see a lot of ziggers spamming this defense line map of Zaporizhzhia and how they are retreating to defensive positions. Is there any truth to this?
Why would there be?
>Why would there be?
If Russia loses the land corridor it loses the war. I want to assume that Russians aren't THAT moronic and they actually plan to stop this offensive somehow.
Not necessarily. They can still dig in the Donbas, but Crimea would be fricked. Best case scenario would be to trade Crimea for Luganda and Donbabwe as gesture of good will.
If I were Putin, I would spin it as, "We liberate LNR and DNR, kill many Nazis and hope hohols respect Tartar sovereignty of Crimea."
Traitors will flee to Russia anyway, if Ukraine takes back a half-depopulated Crimea and a 3/4 depopulated "Peoples Republics" that's to their benefit. Free real-estate to develop with reparations and Western gibs and EU free trade/movement.
At the moment no one controls Crimea.
>If Russia loses the land corridor it loses the war.
Very much so.
>I want to assume that Russians aren't THAT moronic
The jury is still out on that one, though their game has improved over the last 15 months.
>and they actually plan to stop this offensive somehow.
They're trying to blunt the Ukrainian counteroffensive by making it costly enough that they back off and settle into a stalemate. Russian diplomats keep telegraphing their desire for a ceasefire, and I think that for all the public posturing the Kremlin has really been set back on their heels by just how badly this has gone for them so far. Another significant victory for the AFU is going to be hard to spin as a "goodwill gesture", and the Russian logistics situation is looking increasingly dire.
Long term, it looks like their plan for any positive outcome centers on cutting Western support for Ukraine. The propaganda has been focused on it since Kherson, and the West has been pretty uniform in their messaging back that support will continue, perhaps even ramp up.
Apparently these morons deployed most of their troops to the forward defense line. The second and third line are supposedly almost empty. And they've already started throwing their extremely scarce mechanized reserves at velyka novosilka.
At this point Russians essentially trapped themselves. If they stay at the forward line, Ukrainian artillery will punch a hole somewhere and then they'll get encircled and destroyed. If they try to pull back, they'll be eating artillery barrages across the entire battleground, and it's quite likely that Ukrainians will go after them, punch a hole somewhere, and then see above.
I never thought you could really frick up defense in depth, but apparently ziggers really managed to do it. If they really deployed like that and got caught pants-down by the intensity of Ukrainian artillery bombardments and couterbattery fire, this battle is as good as over.
the counter pushes seem to be about as STUPID as you can be and their milbloggers and command seems proud of it, wasting valuable units on slowing down an assault when they should hunker down and use the advantages they have on the defense
What really confuses me is the lack of communication trenches. There's no way if you're engaged to back out of the trench and make your way to the next line, besides using any cover that may be present. They seem to be planning on engaging anything that pops up to the first anti-tank trench, then ??? then there's another trenchline 3 km behind them. How are they going to get back if they need to withdraw under fire?
I know the answer but frick.
>I want to assume that Russians aren't THAT moronic
Anon, to assume that there is a limit to Russian incompetence, this far into the 3 day speshul meletery operashun, is to ignore the greatest thesis to have ever been composed by the Russian people.
>I want to assume that Russians ... actually plan to stop this offensive somehow.
Why would you desire that outcome, Anon? I personally want to see every Russian crunchie roasted to a crisp and mailed back home in a garbage bag.
because if you stop assuming that the russian leadership is at least self interested and somewhat rational MAD stops holding
I think those defence lines do, in fact exist... but they're probably scuffed to frick and no better than a couple of trenches with some concrete pyramids sprinkled all over.
Eh, I would give Ziggers more credit when it comes to defense. This isn't some /misc/tard muddying the well talk, but generally the Russians seem to be fielding at least average static defenses against the Ukrainians. Static defense does not have the same moving parts or points of failure that combined warfare does, so its something Russia's top heavy command structure is predisposed to succeed at. I think that Ukraine will win and push the Russians out of Crimea, but lets not pretend that its going to be Desert Storm 2, as its just gonna make Zigger demoralization attempts much more effective.
>but generally the Russians seem to be fielding at least average static defenses against the Ukrainians.
no they haven't, they can't even dig slanted floors into their trenches, they're far below WWI tier every time i've seen them. No bracing, no firing positions, no water control, nothing to affect vehicles or anything else.
I've seen derivatives of the same map that ultimately come from OSINT examination of satellite imagery over the previous months. Some are better resolution or more granular than others, but they seem to agree on the general lines of defense, and the strategy is roughly in line with Soviet/RF defensive doctrine -- see Chapter 6 here if you want in-depth analysis of that: https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm100-2-1.pdf
>someone posting that and hinting they've ACTUALLY READ IT
I'll marry you anon. I'll even dress up like a girl if you're into that.
You don't man all of them at once anon.
>A tank or motorized rifle division typically defends a sector 20 to 30 kilometers in width and 15 to 20 kilometers in depth. The commander normally organizes the main defensive area in two echelons and a reserve. The first echelon's mission is to inflict losses on the enemy, to force him to concentrate, and to canalize him into fire sacks. The second echelon's mission is to stop and destroy enemy penetrations or to reinforce or replace troops of the first echelon.
If we're talking lines like 50 km apart you'll have another division, probably in reserve, sitting a bit more spread out.
I've sat on Sentinel Hub for a few hours looking at the purported locations of the "lines". Although their public resolution is shit (like 50m so you could have a tank sitting in a revetment and probably not see it) you can absolutely tell there are trench lines where formerly there were none. Considering in OP's map every dot is a specific location with a corresponding satellite picture I think it's legit (the actual "lines" are drawn on and IMO shouldn't be posted).
posting that and hinting they've ACTUALLY READ IT
I've read that chapter, though I'm not claiming to be an expert or someone who wrote a grad thesis on it or anything. But it is interesting that most of what's in the text uses a Motorized Rifle Brigade as their example defense, and that's exactly what makes up the the Russian 127th Division pitted against the AFU advance in Velyka Novosilka.
I encourage every Anon to check out sources for themselves and not reply on the Reader's Digest version. I'll also warn that the linked PDF isn't light reading.
>when you retreat, you win, Sun Tzu agrees, please don't bother him about it
The trenches aren't the issue, it's the extensive minefields. As we have seen, trying to push through the mines leads to being stuck in killing zones where you can be picked off by KA-52s. Don't expect to see the borders move much no matter how many convoys get splattered on the defenses, this conflict is unofficially frozen and a ceasefire should really be negotiated as soon as possible.
>and a ceasefire should really be negotiated as soon as possible.
that depends on the will of each side to continue fighting, if the Russian military ever get fed up, they may retreat without necessarily being overrun as casualties are still being incurred on the borders all the time
-"I am going to rape you in all orifices!"
-"I don't think so, I will shoot you!"
-"Can I rape you just a little then?"
-"No, I will shoot you!"
-"Why are you so unwilling to negotiate? Am I not showing good will here?"
shooting a man for a little rape is completely out of proportion though. women constantly fantasize about rape. At worst its a bit like being beaten up
The only ceasefire Russia agrees to is one where Ukraine has to give back Kherson and give Zaporizhizhia to Russia "Forever".
Putin is refusing to accept anything less. As in it doesn't matter how much the West, demands, begs, or pleads, Ukraine still must give that land up.
"Because muh Refrendumbs"
Yeah, that seems to be the gist of the Russian negotiating strategy:
> The fascist and evil Kiev regime must pass a constitutional amendment forever ending any chance of joining HATO, and then acknowledge that we're allowed to keep everything we already stole. Plus, they also have to give us some other stuff that we haven't been able to steal quite yet. Their stubbornness in refusing such generous terms shows how unreasonable and bloodthirsty they are, and underscores the moral justification of our sneak attack that we lied about to literally everybody.
It's going over like a lead balloon, and I get the impression that the Kremlin is genuinely surprised. They seem to believe that because they're no longer asking for Yanukovitch to be installed as a dictator, or for the annexation of 8 oblasts instead of four, that the West now HAS to force a peace settlement that gives them something.
It's like dealing with a spoiled brat who genuinely can't understand that you're not obligated to let them win, no matter how much of a tantrum they throw.
This is ultimately Russia still butthurt from Kosovo
"HOW DARE YOU MAKE THE SERBS GIB CLAY WE WILL MAKE UKRAINE GIB CLAY IN VENGEANCE!!!!
They literally used the same arguments for Kosovo back. "SEE SEE SELF DETERMINATION YOU HAVE TO AGREE!!!"
Not realizing that it's transparent as frick that it was fake.
Like apparently the person in charge of Crimea recently said "Because of this attack Ukraine must also give up Odessa and Kharkiv."
>"Because of this attack Ukraine must also give up Odessa and Kharkiv."
I saw that, and it's 100% in line with the Soviet negotiating tactic of starting out by asking for the moon and the stars and then refusing to give even the smallest concessions until the opposition was about to walk away from the table. I read a book my Dad had, ages ago, that mentioned negotiating against the Soviets in the Brezhnev era or something, and if I find it I'll post the quote, because it had a lot of insights to this kind of behavior.
See above; I think it's more power politics than any ideological principles or love for the Serbs. Though Putin would love to spin it to the Serbs that way: "see, we've avenged you! (By getting something for us.)"
moron.
>muh frozen
moron. This conflict is no more frozen than the eastern front was in 1943.
Defense positions can be anything from some sandbags to a line of actual fortresses. So far, we have seen VERY little of russian concrete bunkers where they would need them the most, in spite of having had months and months to prepare. I don't think the lower priority lines has more real defenses than the very front lines, do you?
>they are retreating
This seems to be true. How defensible their new positions would be - we'll see that in the future.
Depends on manning and equipment. Trenches and dugouts fronted by dragons teeth with nobody manning it is pretty worthless. But even a field-side ditch can be a major obstacle if manned by dudes with ATGMs and machine guns.
It's a satellite map'd out thing, so yeah, it's legit
All it is is known earthwork defensive lines some guy could spot on a commercial satellite map, nothing more, they can be as empty as the Crimean trench lines.
We have no idea how these lines are built or their effectiveness.
The thing is the manpower to keep these fortifications just doesn't exist. It's 120 miles from Volnovakha to the Khakhovka Reservoir. Manning that level of fortification would take enormous numbers that the Russians can't field.
Don't worry, Steinersky will take care of it and put things right.
Prepared defenses are pretty moot in modern warfare. If you prepare them, then the enemy will already know how you've prepared them and how to counter it. What to target on the first day. And a lot of what you have prepared is based on at best shaky assumptions about how the enemy will attack.
Tough defensive lines aren't build, they are born; they are what happens if you allow a battle to stall and only put enough pressure on the enemy defenses to make them undergo a darwinian evolution intended strictly to wreck your shit. You end up with a terrain that is a nigh impassible hellscape filled with hundreds of perfect machine gunner nests, hidey holes and mine funnels, and a lovecraftian mess of a trench system that is impossible to effectively cut through and is borderline impossible to navigate for anyone not having it as a daily routine. You end up with a defense that is perfected against the current angle of attack, current composition of enemy forces and current availability of means.
>Muh concrete bunkers
Simple defensive concrete pillboxes will get folded by a barrage of 155mm fire. This isn't the fricking 40's anymore where you'd have to shell a concrete structure with 100mm shells for half a day on end just to get enough shots on target to collapse it. Russia probably didn't bother with actual bunker complexes either.
its likely true, but the problem is going to be whether they have the reserves to commit to the fight, and if those reserves can be moved where they're needed in a timely manner.
i think they wont have much to spare at this point considering the effort that went into the capture of bakhmut
It's from the finnmap, so it's at least verified from some form of credible source.
in this video you can see the fortifications just south of Robotyne (south of Orkhiv on your map)
seems decent but I don't know if this will be enough to stop Ukies
>POHIHN
Does that say "Ronin" in Cyrillic?
"Roniny" - "ronins"
>Is there any truth to this?
It's just cope
Any Russian fortifications that actually exist were built by unpaid Uzbeks and are manned by untrained vodka soaked mobniks
I’m pretty sure it’s a meme like the cope triangles
why doesnt HATO deploy hovertanks to float over the soviet era minefields
>When a helicopter hovers over the ground, it creates a downward flow of air through the rotor.
>This flow of air is reduced to zero at the ground due to the ground effect, which then transfers the energy and thus weight to the ground.
>The weight of the helicopter is supported by the lift generated by the rotor blades. The amount of air displaced by the rotor blades is equal to the weight of the helicopter. Therefore, when hovering just above the ground, all of the weight of the helicopter is transferred to the ground through the rotor blades.
Thus, you can surmise than any floating tank would still set off any form of weight triggered mine or explosive because the weight is still being transferred to the ground.
Yeah but it's not touching the mine though
The air and ground are touching the mine tho
>Thus, you can surmise than any floating tank would still set off any form of weight triggered mine or explosive because the weight is still being transferred to the ground.
the ground pressure would be incredibly low though
it's hard to estimate the ground pressure of a magic lift system that doesn't exist, ground pressure is low if you assume the lifting force is evenly distributed under the vehicle
Short answer is we dont know. Fortifications behind the line of contact tend to be sounder in theory than in practice since they are assembled without the acid test of enemy action, and by the time they are being actively defended it will be because the defenders had already retreated repeatedly
We will see when/if the ukes get there
No, its legit. It comes from the group of autistic finns in blackbird group and others who actually paid for private satellite imagery and mapped the entire thing out.
https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1655584386601951238?cxt=HHwWjIC9scvO6PktAAAA
Here is their thread on the subject
I highly recommend following these guys, theyre very reliable and thorough, but not as quick as some ukie connected osint accounts with reports
While true it's mostly just autistically well mapped earthworks. We have no idea how effective they are, and they didn't take into account parts of it that are effectively just deep ditches when making the map.
>Is there any truth to this?
When was the last time the Russians told the truth about anything, Anon?
Supposedly the front-line troops are the garbage they want to kill off, and the second line is the troops they actually think will hold. I guess we'll see how many hours they last. I predict we'll see a rout all the way to the isthmus to Crimea by mid-July.
The sheer number of men needed to staff those lines either means they're not properly manned or they're properly manned to the detriment of everywhere else. I'd say it's the former.