Is Russia intentionally retreating occupied territories to lure the Ukrainian military deep into enemy lines so Belarus with Russian support can launch a massive northern offensive to take Kiev and Lviv?
>inb4 NATO invades Belarus as retaliation
Won’t happen because Belarus has nukes thanks to Russia.
Pic rel is the possible plan.
Belarus has no significant military
It was just a feint, bros! The cauldron will close on Kiev in two weeks!
They do, it's just enough to prevent Lukashenko from being dragged out of his presidential palace and set on fire.
>we don't NEED Izium
>Thread not weapons related.
WHERE ARE THE MODS?
>Capeshit
Great.. meme. so organic.
>newbie vatBlack person doesn't know 'bout Shazamposting
Way to out yourself.
apparently ukies don't need donetsk or luhansk either
I see... this is the ultimate feint, Russia is giving up all of its occupied territory so that the true might of Belarus (third army in the world) can be unleashed
I think you should take your meds.
They'll need to form 4th and 5th army corps for something like that. And unless their recruiters going to learn necromancy it's not going to happen.
Russia refused to take back their dead bodies, even necromancers wouldn't help them now
They will use long distance necromancy to create an army behind the Ukrainian lines
skeleton armies are scary because they don't tire or fear destruction
so ... why did they wait 6 months for this when they could have raised eyebrow in february ?
curious
Who? The Russians or Ukrainians? The Ukrainian military has been bootstraped into modernization and ramping up of NATO training the last many months. It was a lot of territorial defense in the early days, but because russia can’t get their shit together, they’ve effectively given NATO and ukraine time to establish a system of proper training and gear and eventually Ukraine will have a professional army with NATO training and near peer NATO gear as general issue vs. whatever the frick russia gives to their conscripts after numerous attacks on their ammo storages and supply convoys.
Impossible to assemble the men and equipment for such an invasion without being spotted by spy satellites.
do it at night
NATO satelites use radar imaging so weather and daytime is irrelevant. Also, invasion buildup takes months to complete
This isn’t 1950’s anymore, maybe fore russian spy satellites it is.
A question worth asking. What do we actually know of the russian satellites? How many do they have these days, are their comms likely to be closely listened to by USA, are there shenanigans happening that make them deaf and dumb when they pass over Ukraine?
>Belarus
>getting involved in this shit show six months in
Luka realised this endeavour was doomed after the first weekend. He's not going to threaten his livelihood for Putin's dumb war.
not getting involved is the only thing threatening his livelihood
What's russia going to do? Invade Belarus?
He has Putin by the balls
He doesn't need to. He can just turn off the gas tap, arm pro russians and wait for Europe's last dictator's upside down hanging.
>arm pro russians
Gee, those nuggets without bullets sure are scary
Pro-Russians, in Belarus?
The pro-russians in Belarus are also pro-Lukashenkov. And vastly outnumbered by the Belarussians who want Lukashenkov out and wants to join the EU.
>Putin tries to oust Luka
>fails
>Luka does a 180° turn on Russia/EU/democracy
>retires to a villa in Italy for saving Belarus from Russian aggression
Do it Monke.
>pro russians
>in belarus
just like the pro-russians in ukraine that wont resist and will welcome the russians in so that there will be no fighting? right iva- err, I mean, anon.
Pro Russians are all over the ukro government and military. You^ll never suspect it because they skillfuly play the biggest pro Ukrainians. They send the nazis to their death on a daily.
Wait, so Russia has the UA military on their side, but they still keep failing? Christ, how fricking humiliating.
They actually did have a lot of them on Russia's side. That's why Crimea handed over the Ukrainian navy to Russia in 2014, and why Kherson collapsed in 2022.
>send the "ukronazis" on suicide mission against Russian regulars
>Russians are annihilated
You'd be surprised at the amount of casualties that the Ukrainians are really enduring.
No, actually, I wouldn't be surprised. I'm saddened and in awe. Much respect for their sacrifices.
Zelensky had to purge half the SBU (Ukrainian Intelligence) including the top spook over pro-Russian suspicions the other day.
And if he does that, who do you think Belarus might turn to if it decided not to capitulate?
The Belarusian far right (which includes most of the military) are white nationalists and hate putin's eurasianist gulaghomo.
Because his people will surely love the idea of dying for Putin and it's totally not gonna backfire in his face once thousands of corpses start coming back across the border.
Luka isn't that much of a dicksuckers to Putin.he only wants to live his life in peace and not join im those adventures.
Belarus military is like 25,000 people. It’s not big enough to take the two most pro-western cities in Ukraine.
So, no, your idea is shit.
>Won’t happen because Belarus has nukes thanks to Russia.
But what if a suspiciously heavily armed Belarusians commit a coup instead?
Ukraine still have units in that area
Belarus have relatively small army
Luka isnt sure his army is as loyal as KGB-siloviki
Luka need army in country because he's still paranoid about opposition
If that was possible it would've happened in the critical feb-march period
i consider an offensive toward lviv to have very low chance of success
1. preparations would be apparent
2. terrain in that area is even less offensive friendly
3. it would be the part of ukraine russia would have the most pain occupying
It's called "defense in depth".
>Belarus with Russian support can launch a massive northern offensive to take Kiev and Lviv?
Luka wants Putin to fail, they're only allies of convenience.
>NATO invades Belarus as retaliation
what for?
Lukashenko's attack will bring everything in order.
Picture of Belarusian conscripts aiming with shovels.jpg
it is likely poland have prepared to take lwow now, this lure is like a snare: once caught the rope cuts deeper. russi and poland, together we slay the beast
>Yes Poland, now you have Lviv bac
>Wait, what are you doing? This are our defences!!! No!!!
if lukashenko turns his army anywhere its gonna be towards moscow
he has a valid claim to the throne of the tsardom of rus and all he needs is for putin to be out of the picture one way or the other
Last summer Luka needed HOMOs from Monkeland to save his ass from the love the people. How do you think it's gonna turn out for him if he orders the army in? Belarus literally has one division of professional soldiers - everything else is conscripts. The only groub loyal to him are the KGB and the state made oligarchs. If he tries to command his army to go in half of them would desert and the other would turn their guns on him.
Chances are when this war is over, Lucy will beg the west for forgiveness, the guy knows better than to stick around with the losing team
Russia is just feinting to form a cauldron, and then the gloves come off and two weeks later they'll have Kiev
*purposefully takes off gloves only to reveal second pair of gloves underneath*
lemme help you anon
Ah hell yeah we gonna get a sequel bros
it's the mother of all feints... it's over ukrosisters
Mon they are drawing cope lines again
We can't wreck Russia cos nukes, but what's stopping us just plowing Belarus into oblivion?
Or at the very least a major tomahawk strike on all of its vehicle/ammo depots? 91 Saddam style.
They are part of the CSTO and will trigger a Russian response.
>Is Russia intentionally retreating occupied territories to lure the Ukrainian military deep into enemy lines so Belarus with Russian support can launch a massive northern offensive to take Kiev and Lviv?
>russians are so moronic they will attack in the wintern again
yes I can see it.
Flexible defence is a thing.
Yeah, but not for Russians, and not 50 kilometers behind your lines.
>almost 600km (400 miles) from Brest to Gomel
, do you think russians have the manpower, the equipment or the logistics to start a front line and advance on a front line that big? also like someone else said it, they will need months to prepare and you will see it from Space, NATO will send tens of billions to Ukraine, maybe even start some Air strikes in Belarus
Well. Basic russian defence doctrine does specify strategy of setting up sevral trenches to slowly retreat too to lure in enemy, and artillery being behing final trench with some decoy trenches up ahead first one to make enemy think they beaten main defence line. Tho that defence line is supposed not not be thicker than 16 km to not risk streching supply lines and make retreating to further defence points take to long.
So if Ukies went in more than 16km and caught up with Russian artillery then we can safety say that Ukies get trought and Russian have no more room to retreat.
And top down structure of the Russian command forbid retreating on your own and wait for higer up orders. Which might not come when HARM can pick up any radar and Radio and lead to artillery bombardment upon their positions if they get detected.
You cant post logical shit like this here man. This is exclusively a propaganda shit flinging thread. VatBlack person.
Belarus border have shitty terrain to create any advance so i doubt it
Russia is the light that that purges demonic evil from this world. Resistance is futile.
R*ssia is chaotic destopia shithole.
Why are they abandoning so many vehicles in the process then?
Gesture of good will obviously.
>Won’t happen because Belarus has nukes thanks to Russia.
no it doesn't lol
Yeah, trust the plan.
You realise that if they lose donbabwe the entire world will laugh at them and putin will lose his chair right
>Is Russia intentionally retreating occupied territories to lure the Ukrainian military deep into enemy lines so Belarus with Russian support can launch a massive northern offensive to take Kiev and Lviv?
No, the Russians have had multiple opportunities to prove they aren't moronic and they've failed everytime. Cultures of dictators with yes men generally don't get more cunning.
Realize people are mocking this, but at least according to US studies on Russian doctrine the answer is "maybe" Maneuver defense does explicitly call for units to not decisively engage with the enemy, but retreat in order draw the enemy away from their artillery and eventually set up a counterattack. We'll know for certain once the Ukrainians have advanced around 10km, as that's how deep Russian defense in depth is meant to be doctrinely.
Pic rel, from US Army Press' "Russian Way of War"
please the images of captured russian camps show weapons, ammunition, phones, and even washing machines left behind. You have to pull back to do maneuver defense - not rout.
>We'll know for certain once the Ukrainians have advanced around 10km
About that...
>russian doctrine
mother fricker that's 70s era active defense that ukraine has been doing the entire war. meanwhile russia has claimed for years to use the so called 'recon strike complex' and the moment they started this conflict they immediately transitioned to some lame ass early 80s deep battle variant
That's literally not active defense though. Active defense is literally about counter-blitz, oriented towards channels instead of layers, which maneuver defense calls for.
This is reasonable for a retreat, been a part of elastic defense since 1917 at least
This isn't. Haven't seen this yet. Pix? Would mean likely Ukrainian operational success
The only source I've seen on this is a telegram channel
>This isn't. Haven't seen this yet. Pix?
Also a bm-21 on it's side with a bunch of dead Russians around it
We've seen Ukraine literally capturing Russia artillery.
>move that much men and materiel to the north unnoticed when NATO/US sats and planes are feeding ukies info on a near instantaneous basis
lol
lmao
>Is Russia intentionally retreating occupied territories to lure the Ukrainian military deep into enemy lines
No, it was unexpected and they don't have the reserves in place to stop the advance of the ukies.
They need troops in the region asap if they want the enemy to consolidate and entrench their gains.
Tbh if Ukraine has the strength to do so, there is no reason they shouldn't expand further.
Its a gesture of goodwill
Potato master moves his troops in and he's not gonna wake up the next day. More than half the country hates him.
Lukashenko knew that getting himself involved in this is like stepping on a land mine.
Luka decided not to attack last time when the odds of winning seemed much higher than now
Even if he decided to attack, he doesn't even have enough soldiers to pose a significant threat
No. But Russia runs their military a little differently. They use conscripts and dregs for riskiest situations and holding ground while they spare their best for decisive movements to spare their casualties. Conscripts that prove themselves and gain experience get shifted into less risky roles. This is a very different way of doing things from the West which typically always have their best in the vanguard who will inflict a better k/d but when they experience d it's a serious loss. So Russia will be simultaneously experiencing bad losses while also gaining more veterans. Notice in all the footage, all the Russian soldiers look like 0/10 genetic dead beats armed with bullshit. This is exactly what the Germans found when they engaged with the Red Army in WW2.
This style of warfare is why Wehrmacht carved through Red Army like a hot knife through butter in the first 2 years but by 1943 they had lost all their veterans while the Red Army was gaining veterans.
Russia isn't playing 4D chess here they are facing serious issues. It's 6 months into the conflict and Ukraine looks to be taking the initiative. That's a red flag that the balance of the war is changing. But Russians are definitely going back to their old tactics of throwing untrained conscripts and penals at the Ukrainians sparing their best. I think their best are their Chechen units but I'm not sure where they are right now. The key is to see what they do with their Chechen units.
Holy shit, is the "holding their best in reserve" cope still a thing?
Did you read my whole post?
>Did you read my whole post?
yeah and it was moronic
lol
lmao
lol
Because you don't read books
So it seems, so it seems.
Neither of you read my whole post apparently. That or you didn't read any military history on the eastern front
god you people are really fricking fixated on macker's aren't you
Read the whole post first
Actually looking at it
>They use conscripts and dregs for riskiest situations and holding ground while they spare their best for decisive movements to spare their casualties.
No. Their most professional and specialized units were sent in the thunder run to Kyiv and got thoroughly annihilated.
>Conscripts that prove themselves and gain experience get shifted into less risky roles.
They got shoved into less risky roles as the DPR and LPR have been sent into the meatgrinder to probe for weak points- which they don't seem to have found, or lacked the initiative to exploit, as a combined result of shit-tier C&C and those veterans probably not wanting to move forward unless they face 0 resistance, which isn't going to fricking happen, hence the grinding fighting and the WWI "gains" for the Russians in the past month.
That is if those conscripts chose to be contracted after their term was up instead of saying "frick you I served my term, I'm not going back in there."
>This style of warfare is why Wehrmacht carved through Red Army like a hot knife through butter in the first 2 years but by 1943 they had lost all their veterans while the Red Army was gaining veterans.
Germany had lots of vets, but they were so chewed up they were often cycled to the west. The soviets didn't magically gain veterancy for their whole army either, they managed to get a guarantee that the japs weren't going to try shit, meaning a large reserve of already trained units could be pulled from the east.
Germany's defeat also had a lot to do with the outright disparity in just about every category. In terms of russia has deployed in ukraine right now, it not as large of a disparity, and russia has been dragging it's feet on mobilizing more people in units it can legally use, and anyone mobilized now will need time to train and equip unless they literally want to just throw men into the fire like they've forced the DPR and LPR to do, which is not conducive to survival or competent veterans.
Which would be my last, biggest criticism with this train of thought; veterancy does not guarantee that they are better soldiers- it just means that they were better soldiers than they were when they started. This might sound like a dumb statement but really think about it- if you've thrown a man with three weeks of training into a fight and he survives, whoop-de-do- you have someone who is able to survive, but not necessarily win, or understand how to fight with a squad effectively, because he really only still has three weeks of training and now has had a very cruel introduction to combat.
Life is not fricking HOI4, green troops that survive being thrown into a meatgrinder and put back on the frontline or second line else where are not guaranteed to be as effective as their Ukrainian counterparts, who spent a year being trained in the TDF before facing combat, then cycled out to be reorganized and trained as full military for 2-3 months.
They didn't get annihilated, they retreated on all the northern fronts. The Chechen units were sent to the South to mop up Azov
which is why units like the VDV and Spetsnaz, pretty big, prestigious and elite units, have been mysteriously absent from the conflict since then, and the Guard's Motor Rifles took fricking 3 months to redeploy
They popped up in Mariupol which is exactly what I expect from how Russians conducted their last wars. They aren't going to put them in range of artillery and drones. You won't see them until there's a decisive move. Until then youre going to see conscripts in the meat grinder
>You won't see them until there's a decisive move
russia is literally experiencing "decisive moves" against them for about a month and a half now. this is just a roundabout "gloves coming off" variant of the infamous cope
Also, according to your logic:
>conscript gets thrown into the shit with minimal training and equipment
>survives a battle by sheer luck, learning nothing in the process
>is somehow now qualified to operate better equipment and get better training... but won't actually fight in battles again
????????????????????????
You're completely uninformed on eastern front. Germany lost most of their veterans failing to take Moscow and they concentrated the rest of them into 6th Army who were annihilated in Stalingrad. In 1943 the German army was green. They recycled troops to the West but these were largely maimed veterans released from hospital. Wehrmacht structured things like a typical western army which is putting the best in the vanguard. Russia doesn't do things this way. They recklessly throw conscripts and dregs into a meat grinder and clean up with professional units. That's how Russia has always done it and there are a few other eastern countries that also do things this way.
>Russia doesn't do things this way. They recklessly throw conscripts and dregs into a meat grinder and clean up with professional units.
Well then they must be lacking the professionals because for the last 5 months all they can do is step 1, and step 3; just bombard shit.
They were used in Mariupol to clean up Azov. I was actually watching combat footage back then. You never see these units on front lines. That's how the west fights wars, not Russia or a few other eastern countries.
>That's how the west fights wars, not Russia or a few other eastern countries.
I'm pretty sure this is just how Russia fights wars.
And it's fricking moronic, and makes me think their "Professionals" are just regular boots when compared to any other country. Russia is the only fricking country on earth that would use such fricking Interwar tier tactics.
Thread theme
Meh... mission accomplished, the death of the West is guranteed with the timing of the Queens death and likely mourning period. The weather is cooling and a bank holiday is added ontop of the energy crisis, think about it, best time to flip to asymmetric warfare is now
"It will happen when the weather cools"
Someone tell Putin to pack the Iran bag just incase a coup happens, atleast until the FSB cells in the West wake up to capitalize on Winter Gas Dissent.
Phase 2 of Operation Z is most likely asymmetric in nature, "look at my magic bunny rabbit hat war while my assets get ready to break your butthole with an iron rod" is what Im guessing is about to happen
"The Event Will Happen When The Weather Cools'
Will they deploy the Su-57s or T-14s in the field in the winter months?
Belarus is tiny and has tiny army - doubt they can scrap even 5-10k troops that wont switch sides at first opportunity...
The ol' potato farmer knows that the moment he commits his forces to an invasion he seals his own death warrant. Success or not, their army won't come out of this intact and will likely suffer horrendous casualties. The second that happens R*ssia will swoop in behind the scenes and coup him (although probably not openly). AT BEST he'll get to stick around as a mere figurehead afterwards while R*ssia will be ASSUMING DIRECT CONTROL of the country.
The troop and equipment movements needed to pull something like this off would entail the most incredible act of subterfuge imaginable.
>Is Russia intentionally retreating occupied territories to lure the Ukrainian military deep into enemy lines so Belarus with Russian support can launch a massive northern offensive to take Kiev and Lviv?
Belarus wont intervene this is bullshit now their army is too weak but there is a possibility that Russia may lure them for counter assault or encirclement encirclement but i personally highly doubt it
Belarus is about to have a civil war. Tons of Belo-women are in poland training.
You understand that the Ukies still have a shit ton of troops up there and that HATO intel would tip them off if any such move was planned, right?