Not by much considering the stark difference in population numbers but I suppose most people who look at this graph will misread it
Completely useless metric. Repost on same axis
anons i hate to break it to you but the issue the graph is tallking about isnt that china will have less workers than the usa, its that china wont be able to support its aging population like america will
Makes it mildly more likely. That graph is the main reason why a lot of people are worried China might actually kick things off and invade Taiwan before 2030, and part of why they've been such stupid butthole gays the last decade vs just biding their time and being decent like before (though Xinnie the Poop is another of course). Even if it's moronic and self-destructive, basically if they feel that "their window is closing" then that could push to wild action vs if they felt like the rest of the century was theirs by default. Weakness vs strength. Would still be dumb though.
Remember the US is also an immigrant parasite nation, it doesn't even create half its own talent just punches it from the rest of the world.
It's own current population are worthless.
>y-you're stealing my talent! >y-you don't have any talent!
What kind of mental gymnastics does it take to hold these ideas about the same place simultaneously?
I hear this claim so often. But besides some falon gong sites / rumor mills and one (1) relatively reputable academic, I can't really find anything on this.
Got any sources on it?
>one (1) relatively reputable academic
The only credible academic that seems to be the only one talking about it is Yi Fuxian, some Gynaecologist who published a book back in 2007 that criticized the CCP's child birth policies which promptly got banned. The book is now unbanned from 2013 and onwards.
The weirdest thing is, prior to the news media spinning the population miscounting story, there's a metric frickton of demographic studies done by many reputable research journals assessing and studying unregistered Chinese children born outside of the one child policy.
And the funniest thing is, one data set Yi Fuxian uses are the public school registration counts being alot less then the number of births reported by hospitals and he uses this as proof that miscounting happened.
The issue is 1) rich chink families take their kids out of the public school system and put them through private tutorship programs, 2) children from poorer rural families dropout of school early and start working to make money, only to get their GEDs later in adulthood 3) alot of births that happen in hospitals weren't registered under the hukou system or taken place off the books because poor families couldn't pay the government fees and they essentially bribed the government officials/doctors/nurses to look the other way.
Then again, there is so much fricking misinformation I might be looking at the wrong data in the wrong places.
There was a recent hack of the Chinese government that dumped all of its citizens records online. The demographics of records from the hack exactly match the "overcounting" prediction.
The reason nobody calls them on their bluff is cause doing so would crater their housing market, which would trigger Chinese panic selling real estate across the globe, which would crater every housing market on the planet, which would trigger a recession worse than 2008.
Unironically politicians are hoping China declares war on Taiwan, so they have an excuse to seize all those investment houses and put them back on the market without popping the real estate bubble.
china needs more than 250x the population working in agriculture to maintain it's current output which is supplemented by imports, it literally does not matter
>US increasing our 16-65 age group by 25% in the next 27~ years
I don't see it happening tbh >China decling by 25% in the same period of time
Slightly more believable
To put things in some perspective, in 2010 China had 75mil 0-4 year olds, this is off the back of about 80mil births in that same preceding 5 year period
Birth rates have declined A LOT since then and they had fewer than 10mil births in 2022.
Still more than the US' 3.6mil of course but they've got 4 times our population so having 2.7 times our birth total is pretty bad long term, then you have to factor in the combination of China's retirement age being lower (50 to 55 for women and 60 for men) vs 67 for borth in the US, granted China doesn't have Social security like the US so far as i'm aware so i'm not really sure what the retirement age means for them.
Having said all that the graph is very wrong.
China's working age population at the end of 2022 was 875mil (this is the group between 16-59 years old) so it's already around where it'd be in the mid 2030's with the pace accelerating. By 2050 i'd be surprised if they have double the US's working age population
>US increasing our 16-65 age group by 25% in the next 27~ years
A full fifth of the US population wouldn't have been here if it weren't for the relaxed restrictions on immigration post-1964. Especially now that both parties are in favor of massively increasing legal immigrants, there's no reason to assume it's impossible to get an extra 25% in.
That's not matter much , Although their working-age population is shrinking, china still has 4 times the population of the United States. while most of amerimutt's mens is too mental ill or too fat to fight
Very nice numbers. But how do you plan on getting that decent chunk of America's population which is composed by store-looting Black folk to be useful in a war?
Glorious immigration-based multiculturalism that saps turdies of all their educated and skilled workers vs doomed to fail ethnostate full of virgin men who will never marry and a rapidly aging population who hates foreigners (who also have no incentive to learn their language)
Not by much considering the stark difference in population numbers but I suppose most people who look at this graph will misread it
Please replot on the same axis.
account for GDP per capita first
Completely useless metric. Repost on same axis
anons i hate to break it to you but the issue the graph is tallking about isnt that china will have less workers than the usa, its that china wont be able to support its aging population like america will
not weapons
Makes it mildly more likely. That graph is the main reason why a lot of people are worried China might actually kick things off and invade Taiwan before 2030, and part of why they've been such stupid butthole gays the last decade vs just biding their time and being decent like before (though Xinnie the Poop is another of course). Even if it's moronic and self-destructive, basically if they feel that "their window is closing" then that could push to wild action vs if they felt like the rest of the century was theirs by default. Weakness vs strength. Would still be dumb though.
As far as actual effect, nothing in particular.
Not as much as you think given that an estimated 71% of Americans are not fit for military service and the military is to recruit people.
That probably will not be a problem if conscription makes a return but, volunteers will be slim to none in this war.
China has the same issues, new recruits are too fat, too weak, too tall to fit in their cold war surplus and their eyesight (lol) also sucks.
The industrial revolution and it's consequences are wrecking combat readiness.
Yeah
Remember the US is also an immigrant parasite nation, it doesn't even create half its own talent just punches it from the rest of the world.
It's own current population are worthless.
>y-you're stealing my talent!
>y-you don't have any talent!
What kind of mental gymnastics does it take to hold these ideas about the same place simultaneously?
>misleading choice of axis
>no clear indication of where actual data ends and forecasts begin
Try harder Chang
All it takes is +10 social credit.
Actually pic related. The yellow is what they admitted to “over counting” and thus doesn’t exist.
I hear this claim so often. But besides some falon gong sites / rumor mills and one (1) relatively reputable academic, I can't really find anything on this.
Got any sources on it?
>one (1) relatively reputable academic
The only credible academic that seems to be the only one talking about it is Yi Fuxian, some Gynaecologist who published a book back in 2007 that criticized the CCP's child birth policies which promptly got banned. The book is now unbanned from 2013 and onwards.
The weirdest thing is, prior to the news media spinning the population miscounting story, there's a metric frickton of demographic studies done by many reputable research journals assessing and studying unregistered Chinese children born outside of the one child policy.
And the funniest thing is, one data set Yi Fuxian uses are the public school registration counts being alot less then the number of births reported by hospitals and he uses this as proof that miscounting happened.
The issue is 1) rich chink families take their kids out of the public school system and put them through private tutorship programs, 2) children from poorer rural families dropout of school early and start working to make money, only to get their GEDs later in adulthood 3) alot of births that happen in hospitals weren't registered under the hukou system or taken place off the books because poor families couldn't pay the government fees and they essentially bribed the government officials/doctors/nurses to look the other way.
Then again, there is so much fricking misinformation I might be looking at the wrong data in the wrong places.
There was a recent hack of the Chinese government that dumped all of its citizens records online. The demographics of records from the hack exactly match the "overcounting" prediction.
The reason nobody calls them on their bluff is cause doing so would crater their housing market, which would trigger Chinese panic selling real estate across the globe, which would crater every housing market on the planet, which would trigger a recession worse than 2008.
Unironically politicians are hoping China declares war on Taiwan, so they have an excuse to seize all those investment houses and put them back on the market without popping the real estate bubble.
Again the supposed "leaked China population data" ONLY comes from him.
It's not going to be ww3 dumb shit.
It's going to be cold war 2. It already is.
This has got to be the dumbest graph in existence
Okay so China begins to have a demographic collapse around the same time America becomes minority white?
china needs more than 250x the population working in agriculture to maintain it's current output which is supplemented by imports, it literally does not matter
>US increasing our 16-65 age group by 25% in the next 27~ years
I don't see it happening tbh
>China decling by 25% in the same period of time
Slightly more believable
To put things in some perspective, in 2010 China had 75mil 0-4 year olds, this is off the back of about 80mil births in that same preceding 5 year period
Birth rates have declined A LOT since then and they had fewer than 10mil births in 2022.
Still more than the US' 3.6mil of course but they've got 4 times our population so having 2.7 times our birth total is pretty bad long term, then you have to factor in the combination of China's retirement age being lower (50 to 55 for women and 60 for men) vs 67 for borth in the US, granted China doesn't have Social security like the US so far as i'm aware so i'm not really sure what the retirement age means for them.
Having said all that the graph is very wrong.
China's working age population at the end of 2022 was 875mil (this is the group between 16-59 years old) so it's already around where it'd be in the mid 2030's with the pace accelerating. By 2050 i'd be surprised if they have double the US's working age population
>US increasing our 16-65 age group by 25% in the next 27~ years
A full fifth of the US population wouldn't have been here if it weren't for the relaxed restrictions on immigration post-1964. Especially now that both parties are in favor of massively increasing legal immigrants, there's no reason to assume it's impossible to get an extra 25% in.
what a moronic fricking graph holy shit
That's not matter much , Although their working-age population is shrinking, china still has 4 times the population of the United States. while most of amerimutt's mens is too mental ill or too fat to fight
Zeihan and his followers were a mistake for internet discourse
Frick off Zeihan nobody is gonna fight for globohomo
You are right. I wont fight for globohomosexual (china) but I will fight to kill globohomosexual (commie Chinese)
Very nice numbers. But how do you plan on getting that decent chunk of America's population which is composed by store-looting Black folk to be useful in a war?
Glorious immigration-based multiculturalism that saps turdies of all their educated and skilled workers vs doomed to fail ethnostate full of virgin men who will never marry and a rapidly aging population who hates foreigners (who also have no incentive to learn their language)