Establishing a land route to Crimea that doesn't involve their bridge that has already been shown to be highly combustible, also seizing a nuclear power plant that was a significant source of Ukraine's electricity. Aside from that they fricked most of the other land they conquered up by bombing it into the stone age.
Clearly their objective was to take hundreds of thousands of casualties, lose over ten thousand vehicles, and make Ukrainians hate them all for a small spit of land that is now almost empty of people and a few small bombed out cities
That would be an absolutely catastrophic loss... if Putin and Russians actually cared about their fellow Russian lives and the state of their country.
As it is right now, if the war were to freeze at the current borders Russia would have stolen a big amount of the arable land in Ukraine and a decent chunk of its natural gas deposits, not to mention the nuclear power plant they still hold.
The loss of population and bombed cities are actually a plus to Russians because they don't mind living in toxic hellscapes and they were planning on ethnically cleaning the whole country to replace it with Russians and "Russians" anyway.
At this point it just looks stupid/desperate. Everyone knows Ukraine is going to attempt a massive counter offensive, and that the outcome hinges heavily on that. If it works well, solid odds that Ukraine takes back everything. If it goes merely decently, then in any sort of peace negotiations Ukraine will have an extremely strong hand. If it goes mediocre that's still going to leave them in a solid defensive position, Russia's original plans will never happen at this point, but much higher chance of fracturing Western support. If it goes incredibly badly somehow, then Ukraine may be forced into conceding what Russia currently holds, or at least it turns into another frozen conflict.
But they're not going to do any talking until after that, and nobody is going to give a single shit about Russia "announcing the end of the conflict" unless that's coupled with "and we're leaving all Ukrainian territory and returning to Russia".
>Ukraine is going to attempt a massive counter offensive, and that the outcome hinges heavily on that. If it works well, solid odds that Ukraine takes back everything
I thought American intelligence expected "modest territorial gains"?
American intelligence also thought Izyum was foolhardy and the Kherson offensive would meet with limited success. It also expected it likely that Ukraine's regular military would be defeated in the field, requiring a shift to partisan warfare. American intelligence tends to be very conservative.
That's probably because the guys who told the brass that Afghanistan would last 6-12 months after the pull out got slapped so hard the guys next door working on Ukraine could hear the impact.
Define "modest territorial gains." Because that could mean taking Tokmak, which would frick over Russian logistics for a huge chunk of southern Ukraine. Everyone is talking about a push to the Azov Sea, but Ukraine has a lot more options to take and it isn't limited to only one offensive push.
But what if they don't? What if they just launch a norma l offensive? And then another. And another. And another. Time and attrition are on Ukraine's side here, they don't have to rush anything or stake the whole war on one big push.
Landbridge to Crimea needs to be cut before Russia implements second mobilization. Russia only does something when they lose, so you need to do as much as possible before they wise up
No trust needed. Even saying it at all, giving voice to it, says something given that the upcoming events are 100% fixed in place on the Allied side, and merely saying "we need to go on the defensive", while accurate, is an admission of weakness vs what they've been belting out for a year. It's a cope way of saying "we know there is a huge offensive coming and if we don't stop it we're boned, and we can't do so via offense, so we have to turtle up hard and fast".
I mean he's not wrong, but also defensive warfare is probably just as advantageous for Ukraine while sanctions are up and Ukraine is still willing to assault you with an infinite supply of drone warfare.
>We already achieved our objectives
Let's check >Denazification
Azov stronger than ever and his martyrs legends. Russophobia is now a thing almost everywhere. >Frick with NATO
NATO was dying by its own. Now? NATO is stronger than ever and Finland joined adding 1500km of NATO territories touching Russia. Good job there >demilitarization of Ukraine
Now it's one of the best trained, experienced and equipped armies of the world.
Good job there Putin. You literally threw through the window your legacy and a couple of Russian generations.
>stronger than ever
after most of the old guard are dead and they replace their ideals with watered down crap and refill the empty ranks with people who don't share the original ideology.
You know, out all the crazy things that have happened in this war, this is one of the things I still can't believe. One of the few stated objectives of the war (as vague as the specific definition was), denazification was a thing you still hear talk about. And they even arguably achieved it, conquering the Azov stronghold and killing or capturing the main core of the 'nazis'. And then they just let them go.
>conquering the Azov stronghold
Was that that dumb steel factory in Mariupol? This 3 day SMO is going on too long bros, I'm already forgetting the lore
Mariupol and the Azovstal Steel Works was the OG 2 more weeks cope. Vatniks were very quick to memoryhole the entire thing and have been drowning out the stream of information with so much insane bullshit that hardly anyone remembers it took them months to push a day one objective.
But they didn't tho. Not thr "killing or capturing the main core" part anyway. The senior officers and veterans of Azov had actually been transferred to Khakriv when Azovstal fell, after being upgraded to fully recognized regular infantry units (from tdf), and they've never been captured or taken many losses there. What defended Azovstal was a mix of marines and the unupgraded part of Azov that was still classified as TDF. The Russians only managed to capture a bunch of low ranks and seamen, and thanks to being integrated into the army proper the Azov battalions that had been transferred to Khakriv have been replenished and gotten NATO training and kit by now. Azov is in fact stronger than ever.
Bullshit rhetoric about nazis aside, of all the ironies from this shitshow the creation of a hyper nationalistic ukranian identity is by far the best; russia fricked themselves for 50 or so years as far as ukraine is concerned, created the very thing they were trying to avoid.
Well, yeah, but You know what I mean.
Point me a minor army trained and using assets like leopards, challengers, PzH 2000, himars...etc
15 months ago they were an average postsoviet army.
Now point to one with a competently run military instead of a fig leaf for military exports with zero modern war experience. Germany is cause for despair even to Germanons. Too bad because the 1980s Bundeswher wasn't cucked by Ossi quislings or decades of vatnig subversion.
How fricking annoying must this guy be? You're trying to run an invasion that is going terribly with the whole developed world sanctioning you and on top of that you've got a billionaire with his own army sending out press releases with his "recommendations" on action
>You're trying to run an invasion >and on top of that you've got a billionaire with his own army
Anon, his army is the only one doing anything remotely resembling fighting
>tdlr: how to lose donbabwee
Entrenchment is the worst thing they can do. At least with a moronic offensive like in Bakhmut they kinda forced the Ukrainians into the defensive. If they just sit here and entrenched themselves, Ukraine would just accumulate more and more reserve units and then find a weakness. The initiative would be with the Ukrainians and the West.
They are just realizing that their offensive is not sustainable and they are losing the war, resulting in doing something stupider to try to avoid the inevitable.
>they declared themselves to be defenders which means they can place their assets in the face-down defense position and use DEF instead of ATK when resolving battle
Let’s hope they have Labyrinth Walls
With offensive who don't create any breakthroughs, Yes. Russia didn't have any such success and it turned into this 1:4 ratio meat grind. But when a breakthrough is achieved, like in the Kharkiv Offensive, and is exploited with enough force, the defender gets fricked hard.
That's why all of Russia's offensives were a joke. There was no breakthrough and when one did occur, they couldn't capitalize on it. This was also the state of the German Army in late 1944/1945 which is a really bad redflag of losing a war.
Doubt that; you're still dealing with poorly trained and demoralized mobiks fighting on foreign soil, supply lines will be fricked hard, and the unwieldy bureaucratic nature of the russian state will undermine the kind of defensive tactics the Ukrainians have applied so successfully, will if anything just lead to more civil unrest, partisan strikes etc. There's little good here for russia - handing stuff of to Wagner will help somewhat but they're still fricked in the long run...
Yes, that works but it only works until you run out of troops and shells and then you're even worse off than before.
I think he realizes Russia is running short, and their next cope will be giving up on offense and trying to freeze the frontlines and beg for an armistice allowing them to keep what they took.
Russia is nowhere near the end of its manpower. It only ends if Putin wants it to.
>inb4 but my people will rise up
This is a country where men were sent onto a modern battlefield without firearms and told to scavenge them off the dead and it STILL took years before there were major mutinies against the Tsar. The Russian people have never revolted. The Tsar was forced out by a coup; the people rioted at times, but there was no big fight to remove the Tsar. His own inner circle had turned on him and deposed him. Then the Bolsheviks also took power in a coup. The Russians didn't particularly want communism or like it as it was implemented, they got it because they wouldn't do shit to challenge it.
In Russia, 14.1% of the population is 20-39 year old men, although there are more 30-39 than 20-29 by a significant margin.
That's 19.74 million men. Even if half are exempted for some reason and you assume 3 logistics personnel are needed for every combat soldier, that gives them 2.47 million men under arms to use.
Ukraine by contrast has 14.2% of its population as 20-39 year old men, out of 44 million, or 6.2 million men. Even if we assume they are more willing to fight and so can use 75% of that, substituting women for some roles, and a more favorable logistics ratio of 2.5/1 combat soldier, advantages that in reality are not nearly that big, that leaves them with 1.3 million men. Russia can take 1.9 times the losses based on those odds, and likely more like 2.2-1 since Ukraine's logistics and mobilization advantage will be big but not that big.
Nice strawman. Obviously the US didn't run out of manpower in Afghanistan, it was losing like 12 men a year.
Manpower is relevant here because Putin thinks winning is essential to his survival and legacy. For now, he fears his right more than antiwar voices. Putin can keep doubling down.
There has been no significant antiwar movement so far. Why would another 70,000-120,000 dead matter? Imagine the US losing 600,000 killed and no real opposition. In that world, do you think they would change just because another 600,000 died?
Look at Iran and Iraq. Yes, there is a breaking point, but it's probably several hundred thousand away. Maybe not 2 million, but probably over 1 million, which means it has years to try to win through attrition and outlast Western aid whose flows hinge on the US elections. In fact, Id imagine they have already discussed continuing through 2024 on the thought that two frontrunners for one party have campaigned on cutting aid, while the Europeans seem unwilling to make major steps without the US.
Russia's demographics are bad but Ukraine's are not much better. For males, the 0-4,5-9,10-14, and 15-29 age brackets for Ukraine are 2.2 - 2.9% of the population, the smallest being 0-4 and the 15-19s, who could serve being just 2.3%.
For Russia, the brackets are 2.5% to 3.3%, with 3% 0-4 and 2.5% 15-19. This is actually not THAT much less favorable than the US in the long term, which ranges from 3-3.3% in those brackets. The Russian pyramid is just top heavy as frick and narrow from 15-24, but that matters less if you don't provide much for seniors.
The US is arguably more fricked by demographics because it gives seniors UBI and universal healthcare (and senior healthcare is literally twice the cost of other places due the US health system being absolutely moronic). The US currently pays $38,000 in benefits in just two programs per Boomer per year, wild.
The US only has 13.7% of its population as males 20-39, less than either, although it does way better than Ukraine and Russia with men 20-29. Being so much larger though, this is 45.2 million men.
well hang on. According to the Discordgate leaks, Russia has a casualty ratio till February at 3.4 to 1, most of those dead, before Vuhledars and Avdiivka.
Second, the quota in Saratov until the end of March was meant to be 40000 men, it got 124....
Nice strawman. Obviously the US didn't run out of manpower in Afghanistan, it was losing like 12 men a year.
Manpower is relevant here because Putin thinks winning is essential to his survival and legacy. For now, he fears his right more than antiwar voices. Putin can keep doubling down.
There has been no significant antiwar movement so far. Why would another 70,000-120,000 dead matter? Imagine the US losing 600,000 killed and no real opposition. In that world, do you think they would change just because another 600,000 died?
Look at Iran and Iraq. Yes, there is a breaking point, but it's probably several hundred thousand away. Maybe not 2 million, but probably over 1 million, which means it has years to try to win through attrition and outlast Western aid whose flows hinge on the US elections. In fact, Id imagine they have already discussed continuing through 2024 on the thought that two frontrunners for one party have campaigned on cutting aid, while the Europeans seem unwilling to make major steps without the US.
Neither country will run out of men, the question is materiel, logistics, and economics. Russia can't supply the forces it has in the field adequately, it is digging deeper into the Soviet legacy every day for equipment, and new production is severely short of the current burn rate.
Keep sending fat old men and twinks fresh out of high school in MT-LBs and stolen garbage trucks. The more reproductive Russian males who die, the better for the world. It's too bad their women can't also be spayed on a similar scale.
>It's too bad their women can't also be spayed on a similar scale.
Have you not seen the country's abortion statistics? They're practically doing it themselves.
>The Russians didn't particularly want communism or like it as it was implemented, they got it because they wouldn't do shit to challenge it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War
I guess a 6 year war isn't "doing shit", from a certain point of view.
The reason he's saying this is because he's being replaced.
If certain sources in Russia and Ukraine are to be believed, there is a new PMC in town (and the town is going to be Bakhmut).
Bets on who's PMC is going to claim victory after it was denied to Wagner? News are that every single spare shell and tube has been diverted towards Bakhmut.
>in a sense >in a sense, I did not shit my pants, well, there IS shit in my pants, and having shit in my pants goes against my stated goal of not having shit in my pants, but it's not a significant amount of shit for my pants to be considered shat in, have you ever seen pictures of people who REALLY shat their pants? besides that, the origin of shit is unclear and we can't state with certainty that it is I who shat my pants
Things are really gonna be funny after this is over when a bunch of big dick toys fall off a truck into the hands of Chechnyans who are anti-Kadyrov and pro-dead-ethnic-Russian.
Good, short read.
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89447 >The composition of the Chechen ruling elite also remains unchanged. At its core are Chechen war veterans who ultimately followed Akhmad Kadyrov—Ramzan’s father and predecessor—and switched sides to join Moscow. They have almost nothing to lose, since the only person able to take anything from them is Ramzan Kadyrov himself. >The outer layer of the system is made up of technocrats skilled at budgetary issues, among other things. These people are not part of Kadyrov’s inner circle, nor are they too eager to join it, lest they incur the leader’s wrath. >Members of the inner circle bear numerous grudges against each other and use immunity bestowed on them by Kadyrov to settle old scores. This infighting was likely responsible for the recent attempted poisoning of Chechen military commander Apti Alaudinov, who is currently fighting in the Donbas.
so mostly outliers for now
There's Chechens fighting against Russia in Ukraine right now at at least company strength. There's been a couple of anti-Kadyrov terrorist attacks this year alone. I'm not about to forecast thew future, but it would seem that there's enough latent hatred for Russia and their lapdog Kadyrov that if an opportunity presents itself, they'll get their knives out.
That's probably because the guys who told the brass that Afghanistan would last 6-12 months after the pull out got slapped so hard the guys next door working on Ukraine could hear the impact.
I'm not sure how American intelligence ever came to that conclusion with the Afghan gov't or the ANA. Anyone I ever met who worked with either had nothing but contempt for them. They were cowardly, lazy, stupid, and generally so shitty that they'd unintentionally make the Taliban look good. It's no surprise that rather than use the toys they'd been given they just dropped them and clung to wheels of departing planes, only to go splat on the tarmac.
>Severly depleted the military of equipment and trained personnel >Cut all diplomatic and trade ties with the 1st world >Increased suffering and unrest in your own country >took some ruined slav slums
objectives achieved.
I seriously hope the bait and switch ukies offensive will be on Belgorod and that it end in another kharkiv. If you really want me happy, belaruse then attack citing defensive treaty and they collapse in two weeks.
They already unilaterally declared a ceasefire, remember that? And of course violated it first and immediately, despite Ukraine saying "yeah, we're not abiding by that."
He's desperate because prison recruits for Wagner have dried up and so have volunteers, all while the Putin keeps ordering him to throw all he has at Bakhmut.
Honestly Russia took the DNR and LNR. They failed to install a regime change and lost 40,000 men but they achieved that. If this war continues, they might lose whatever meager gains they have.
What Russia has achieved?
Planned goals. And if you doubt it you'll go to jail for discrediting russian army.
Establishing a land route to Crimea that doesn't involve their bridge that has already been shown to be highly combustible, also seizing a nuclear power plant that was a significant source of Ukraine's electricity. Aside from that they fricked most of the other land they conquered up by bombing it into the stone age.
Assuming they can keep any of those things. Wars are very easy to start, and very hard to stop.
>into the stone age.
Proper assimilation into russia
so little for so much land forces wrecked
who fricking cares this stupid war needed to be over yesterday. its time to stop.
Russia ain’t dead yet
Got a decent chunk of Eastern Ukraine and probably quite a bit of the natural gas resources.
The Russian goal all along was to all but wipe out Wagner?
>russia has achieved the planned results, and in a sense, we have really achieved them
wdhmbt
The real Special Military Operation to De-Nazify Ukraine was the friends we made along the way
*the friends we lost along the way
Clearly their objective was to take hundreds of thousands of casualties, lose over ten thousand vehicles, and make Ukrainians hate them all for a small spit of land that is now almost empty of people and a few small bombed out cities
That would be an absolutely catastrophic loss... if Putin and Russians actually cared about their fellow Russian lives and the state of their country.
As it is right now, if the war were to freeze at the current borders Russia would have stolen a big amount of the arable land in Ukraine and a decent chunk of its natural gas deposits, not to mention the nuclear power plant they still hold.
The loss of population and bombed cities are actually a plus to Russians because they don't mind living in toxic hellscapes and they were planning on ethnically cleaning the whole country to replace it with Russians and "Russians" anyway.
>and in a sense, we have really achieved them
Came here to post this
>and he was a good friend.
start packing your bags mate
At this point it just looks stupid/desperate. Everyone knows Ukraine is going to attempt a massive counter offensive, and that the outcome hinges heavily on that. If it works well, solid odds that Ukraine takes back everything. If it goes merely decently, then in any sort of peace negotiations Ukraine will have an extremely strong hand. If it goes mediocre that's still going to leave them in a solid defensive position, Russia's original plans will never happen at this point, but much higher chance of fracturing Western support. If it goes incredibly badly somehow, then Ukraine may be forced into conceding what Russia currently holds, or at least it turns into another frozen conflict.
But they're not going to do any talking until after that, and nobody is going to give a single shit about Russia "announcing the end of the conflict" unless that's coupled with "and we're leaving all Ukrainian territory and returning to Russia".
>Ukraine is going to attempt a massive counter offensive, and that the outcome hinges heavily on that. If it works well, solid odds that Ukraine takes back everything
I thought American intelligence expected "modest territorial gains"?
I don't give a frick what they expect, they also didn't tell anyone that Russia was gonna fail 3 days into their invasion
American intelligence also thought Izyum was foolhardy and the Kherson offensive would meet with limited success. It also expected it likely that Ukraine's regular military would be defeated in the field, requiring a shift to partisan warfare. American intelligence tends to be very conservative.
That's probably because the guys who told the brass that Afghanistan would last 6-12 months after the pull out got slapped so hard the guys next door working on Ukraine could hear the impact.
Define "modest territorial gains." Because that could mean taking Tokmak, which would frick over Russian logistics for a huge chunk of southern Ukraine. Everyone is talking about a push to the Azov Sea, but Ukraine has a lot more options to take and it isn't limited to only one offensive push.
American intelligence still works iff the Russian propaganda numbrrs, despite the laughungstock the Russian military has become.
>a massive counter offensive
But what if they don't? What if they just launch a norma l offensive? And then another. And another. And another. Time and attrition are on Ukraine's side here, they don't have to rush anything or stake the whole war on one big push.
Landbridge to Crimea needs to be cut before Russia implements second mobilization. Russia only does something when they lose, so you need to do as much as possible before they wise up
Desperately going "no take backsies" after the massive failure of their winter offensive.
I figured this was coming... though I thought they would at least take Bakhmut first.
Prigozhin is one of the fathers of KGB online propaganda. Trusting him is always a mistake - especially when he's telling the truth.
No trust needed. Even saying it at all, giving voice to it, says something given that the upcoming events are 100% fixed in place on the Allied side, and merely saying "we need to go on the defensive", while accurate, is an admission of weakness vs what they've been belting out for a year. It's a cope way of saying "we know there is a huge offensive coming and if we don't stop it we're boned, and we can't do so via offense, so we have to turtle up hard and fast".
>Prigozhin is one of the fathers of KGB online propaganda.
The frick. He was never in KGB. He was a literal nobody until he started cooking for Putin.
Prigozhin is fricking criminal that got lucked into creating Wagner. That moron spends time having internet fights with Girkin
Well, maybe if you keep up the Black personish online activity, you too could luck into your own mercenary group.
I mean he's not wrong, but also defensive warfare is probably just as advantageous for Ukraine while sanctions are up and Ukraine is still willing to assault you with an infinite supply of drone warfare.
don't underestimate these figures. they are invented characters with purposes. dismissing him as a chef is moronic and short-sighted
hate the bots so much
that's the way, zister!
>We already achieved our objectives
Let's check
>Denazification
Azov stronger than ever and his martyrs legends. Russophobia is now a thing almost everywhere.
>Frick with NATO
NATO was dying by its own. Now? NATO is stronger than ever and Finland joined adding 1500km of NATO territories touching Russia. Good job there
>demilitarization of Ukraine
Now it's one of the best trained, experienced and equipped armies of the world.
Good job there Putin. You literally threw through the window your legacy and a couple of Russian generations.
>stronger than ever
after most of the old guard are dead and they replace their ideals with watered down crap and refill the empty ranks with people who don't share the original ideology.
They didn't even kill most of them. A lot of the senior members were traded back to Ukraine after Mariupol fell.
You know, out all the crazy things that have happened in this war, this is one of the things I still can't believe. One of the few stated objectives of the war (as vague as the specific definition was), denazification was a thing you still hear talk about. And they even arguably achieved it, conquering the Azov stronghold and killing or capturing the main core of the 'nazis'. And then they just let them go.
>conquering the Azov stronghold
Was that that dumb steel factory in Mariupol? This 3 day SMO is going on too long bros, I'm already forgetting the lore
Mariupol in general
Mariupol and the Azovstal Steel Works was the OG 2 more weeks cope. Vatniks were very quick to memoryhole the entire thing and have been drowning out the stream of information with so much insane bullshit that hardly anyone remembers it took them months to push a day one objective.
I honestly think that was when alot of Russian nationalists became disillusioned with Putin
But they didn't tho. Not thr "killing or capturing the main core" part anyway. The senior officers and veterans of Azov had actually been transferred to Khakriv when Azovstal fell, after being upgraded to fully recognized regular infantry units (from tdf), and they've never been captured or taken many losses there. What defended Azovstal was a mix of marines and the unupgraded part of Azov that was still classified as TDF. The Russians only managed to capture a bunch of low ranks and seamen, and thanks to being integrated into the army proper the Azov battalions that had been transferred to Khakriv have been replenished and gotten NATO training and kit by now. Azov is in fact stronger than ever.
Reminder that Russia couldn't take one steel mill. Azov were ordered to surrender.
Bullshit rhetoric about nazis aside, of all the ironies from this shitshow the creation of a hyper nationalistic ukranian identity is by far the best; russia fricked themselves for 50 or so years as far as ukraine is concerned, created the very thing they were trying to avoid.
in what measured unit of time multiplied by 2?
Blackseconds
moron, they sent back the azov guys they captured in mariupol and gave them IPHONES
The original ideology of what? Not wanting to be russian? I think they're safe in that regard after this war
>But we got all the oblasts we wanted. Nearly all of these oblasts, tactically we have them,
>Now it's one of the best trained, experienced and equipped armies of the world.
Not even close
Well, yeah, but You know what I mean.
Point me a minor army trained and using assets like leopards, challengers, PzH 2000, himars...etc
15 months ago they were an average postsoviet army.
>Point me a minor army trained and using assets like leopards, challengers, PzH 2000, himars...etc
Germany
And Germany is "one of the best" too!
Now point to one with a competently run military instead of a fig leaf for military exports with zero modern war experience. Germany is cause for despair even to Germanons. Too bad because the 1980s Bundeswher wasn't cucked by Ossi quislings or decades of vatnig subversion.
everything you just said is moronic
Ok Sanjeet.
Sneedjeet
One of these was achieved?
well the nazi part: a fair share of waggies are now six feet under
They should have done that before the Kharkiv gesture of good will
>In a sense we have achieved our goals
On every level but physical, I am an Imperial Star Destroyer.
Wait a second. Didn't Russia do something like that during WW1?
Why did you answer a question with a series of questions?
He is wrong, just because they stop, doesn't mean the Ukies will.
>denial
>anger
>bargaining
>depression
>acceptance
Step by step. They're learning bros!
waddoyesay we shake on it, brother
How fricking annoying must this guy be? You're trying to run an invasion that is going terribly with the whole developed world sanctioning you and on top of that you've got a billionaire with his own army sending out press releases with his "recommendations" on action
>You're trying to run an invasion
>and on top of that you've got a billionaire with his own army
Anon, his army is the only one doing anything remotely resembling fighting
War starts at your command, but doesn't end at your pleasure.
More than 60% of Zaporizha oblast lives on the Ukrainian side of the front line
They legally live in Russia. Sorry anon, I already declared legality, you lose
Russia has legally won the war, holhol piggies *~~*~~)
No blood. Looks like blanks. No Russian hero would die cringing like that.
he's shooting a cadaver.
What war is that zigger ?
the tasks of the SMO are being fulfilled ahead of schedule
The clamp is closing and everyone knows everything. The Ukranian ass is in the ass
I don’t think it counts if they are forced to vote at gunpoint
the war has been the strategic equivalent of a dessicated clown carcass catching on fire from the fricking beginning
even during the annexation ceremony Putin admitted they can't actually pinpoint the limits of they annexed because they don't control the territory
>in a sense
Hoo boy that turn of phrase is doing a whole lot of heavy lifting
>tdlr: how to lose donbabwee
Entrenchment is the worst thing they can do. At least with a moronic offensive like in Bakhmut they kinda forced the Ukrainians into the defensive. If they just sit here and entrenched themselves, Ukraine would just accumulate more and more reserve units and then find a weakness. The initiative would be with the Ukrainians and the West.
They are just realizing that their offensive is not sustainable and they are losing the war, resulting in doing something stupider to try to avoid the inevitable.
They declared themselves to be the defenders, which means casualty numbers will flip around now and the traditional 1:4 for defenders will favor them
>traditional 1:4 for defenders will favor them
Presuming a competent defense and an incompetent attack. Note the KD ratio in Desert Storm.
>Note the KD ratio in Desert Storm
1:1
>what are you smoking
>they declared themselves to be defenders which means they can place their assets in the face-down defense position and use DEF instead of ATK when resolving battle
Let’s hope they have Labyrinth Walls
With offensive who don't create any breakthroughs, Yes. Russia didn't have any such success and it turned into this 1:4 ratio meat grind. But when a breakthrough is achieved, like in the Kharkiv Offensive, and is exploited with enough force, the defender gets fricked hard.
That's why all of Russia's offensives were a joke. There was no breakthrough and when one did occur, they couldn't capitalize on it. This was also the state of the German Army in late 1944/1945 which is a really bad redflag of losing a war.
Doubt that; you're still dealing with poorly trained and demoralized mobiks fighting on foreign soil, supply lines will be fricked hard, and the unwieldy bureaucratic nature of the russian state will undermine the kind of defensive tactics the Ukrainians have applied so successfully, will if anything just lead to more civil unrest, partisan strikes etc. There's little good here for russia - handing stuff of to Wagner will help somewhat but they're still fricked in the long run...
Yes, that works but it only works until you run out of troops and shells and then you're even worse off than before.
I think he realizes Russia is running short, and their next cope will be giving up on offense and trying to freeze the frontlines and beg for an armistice allowing them to keep what they took.
Russia is nowhere near the end of its manpower. It only ends if Putin wants it to.
>inb4 but my people will rise up
This is a country where men were sent onto a modern battlefield without firearms and told to scavenge them off the dead and it STILL took years before there were major mutinies against the Tsar. The Russian people have never revolted. The Tsar was forced out by a coup; the people rioted at times, but there was no big fight to remove the Tsar. His own inner circle had turned on him and deposed him. Then the Bolsheviks also took power in a coup. The Russians didn't particularly want communism or like it as it was implemented, they got it because they wouldn't do shit to challenge it.
In Russia, 14.1% of the population is 20-39 year old men, although there are more 30-39 than 20-29 by a significant margin.
That's 19.74 million men. Even if half are exempted for some reason and you assume 3 logistics personnel are needed for every combat soldier, that gives them 2.47 million men under arms to use.
Ukraine by contrast has 14.2% of its population as 20-39 year old men, out of 44 million, or 6.2 million men. Even if we assume they are more willing to fight and so can use 75% of that, substituting women for some roles, and a more favorable logistics ratio of 2.5/1 combat soldier, advantages that in reality are not nearly that big, that leaves them with 1.3 million men. Russia can take 1.9 times the losses based on those odds, and likely more like 2.2-1 since Ukraine's logistics and mobilization advantage will be big but not that big.
>every war is won by running out of all your manpower
Based Paradox game expert
Nice strawman. Obviously the US didn't run out of manpower in Afghanistan, it was losing like 12 men a year.
Manpower is relevant here because Putin thinks winning is essential to his survival and legacy. For now, he fears his right more than antiwar voices. Putin can keep doubling down.
There has been no significant antiwar movement so far. Why would another 70,000-120,000 dead matter? Imagine the US losing 600,000 killed and no real opposition. In that world, do you think they would change just because another 600,000 died?
Look at Iran and Iraq. Yes, there is a breaking point, but it's probably several hundred thousand away. Maybe not 2 million, but probably over 1 million, which means it has years to try to win through attrition and outlast Western aid whose flows hinge on the US elections. In fact, Id imagine they have already discussed continuing through 2024 on the thought that two frontrunners for one party have campaigned on cutting aid, while the Europeans seem unwilling to make major steps without the US.
Russia's demographics are bad but Ukraine's are not much better. For males, the 0-4,5-9,10-14, and 15-29 age brackets for Ukraine are 2.2 - 2.9% of the population, the smallest being 0-4 and the 15-19s, who could serve being just 2.3%.
For Russia, the brackets are 2.5% to 3.3%, with 3% 0-4 and 2.5% 15-19. This is actually not THAT much less favorable than the US in the long term, which ranges from 3-3.3% in those brackets. The Russian pyramid is just top heavy as frick and narrow from 15-24, but that matters less if you don't provide much for seniors.
The US is arguably more fricked by demographics because it gives seniors UBI and universal healthcare (and senior healthcare is literally twice the cost of other places due the US health system being absolutely moronic). The US currently pays $38,000 in benefits in just two programs per Boomer per year, wild.
The US only has 13.7% of its population as males 20-39, less than either, although it does way better than Ukraine and Russia with men 20-29. Being so much larger though, this is 45.2 million men.
>The US currently pays $38,000 in benefits in just two programs per Boomer per year, wild.
That's peanuts.
well hang on. According to the Discordgate leaks, Russia has a casualty ratio till February at 3.4 to 1, most of those dead, before Vuhledars and Avdiivka.
Second, the quota in Saratov until the end of March was meant to be 40000 men, it got 124....
Neither country will run out of men, the question is materiel, logistics, and economics. Russia can't supply the forces it has in the field adequately, it is digging deeper into the Soviet legacy every day for equipment, and new production is severely short of the current burn rate.
Keep sending fat old men and twinks fresh out of high school in MT-LBs and stolen garbage trucks. The more reproductive Russian males who die, the better for the world. It's too bad their women can't also be spayed on a similar scale.
>It's too bad their women can't also be spayed on a similar scale.
Have you not seen the country's abortion statistics? They're practically doing it themselves.
>The Russians didn't particularly want communism or like it as it was implemented, they got it because they wouldn't do shit to challenge it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War
I guess a 6 year war isn't "doing shit", from a certain point of view.
The reason he's saying this is because he's being replaced.
If certain sources in Russia and Ukraine are to be believed, there is a new PMC in town (and the town is going to be Bakhmut).
Bets on who's PMC is going to claim victory after it was denied to Wagner? News are that every single spare shell and tube has been diverted towards Bakhmut.
> there is a new PMC in town
Is that those "Wolves" guys?
They literally not even controll all of Donbass lol
Chechnya voted against being in russia. Why won't Russia let them go?
Do you think that's what the import churkas will say to their executioners before they're machine gunned into a drainage ditch?
>no Odessa
>no regime change
>hasn't even occupied the de jure territory of the "annexed" oblasts
L M A O
>Odessa
Odessa is not important.
da comrade we did not want that city anyway call leaving it alone good will gesture such as kiev feint
>in a sense
>in a sense, I did not shit my pants, well, there IS shit in my pants, and having shit in my pants goes against my stated goal of not having shit in my pants, but it's not a significant amount of shit for my pants to be considered shat in, have you ever seen pictures of people who REALLY shat their pants? besides that, the origin of shit is unclear and we can't state with certainty that it is I who shat my pants
*siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiip*
Things are really gonna be funny after this is over when a bunch of big dick toys fall off a truck into the hands of Chechnyans who are anti-Kadyrov and pro-dead-ethnic-Russian.
>Russia, 2020: Nigeria with snow
>Russia, 2030: Somalia with snow
What a time to be alive
Nothing will happen
Are there any unbrainwashed Chechen's left?
The is a Chechen batallion in the Ukrainian side because they only want to kill Russians. So yeah, I guess there are still some of them around.
Good, short read.
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89447
>The composition of the Chechen ruling elite also remains unchanged. At its core are Chechen war veterans who ultimately followed Akhmad Kadyrov—Ramzan’s father and predecessor—and switched sides to join Moscow. They have almost nothing to lose, since the only person able to take anything from them is Ramzan Kadyrov himself.
>The outer layer of the system is made up of technocrats skilled at budgetary issues, among other things. These people are not part of Kadyrov’s inner circle, nor are they too eager to join it, lest they incur the leader’s wrath.
>Members of the inner circle bear numerous grudges against each other and use immunity bestowed on them by Kadyrov to settle old scores. This infighting was likely responsible for the recent attempted poisoning of Chechen military commander Apti Alaudinov, who is currently fighting in the Donbas.
so mostly outliers for now
There's Chechens fighting against Russia in Ukraine right now at at least company strength. There's been a couple of anti-Kadyrov terrorist attacks this year alone. I'm not about to forecast thew future, but it would seem that there's enough latent hatred for Russia and their lapdog Kadyrov that if an opportunity presents itself, they'll get their knives out.
I'm not sure how American intelligence ever came to that conclusion with the Afghan gov't or the ANA. Anyone I ever met who worked with either had nothing but contempt for them. They were cowardly, lazy, stupid, and generally so shitty that they'd unintentionally make the Taliban look good. It's no surprise that rather than use the toys they'd been given they just dropped them and clung to wheels of departing planes, only to go splat on the tarmac.
>Severly depleted the military of equipment and trained personnel
>Cut all diplomatic and trade ties with the 1st world
>Increased suffering and unrest in your own country
>took some ruined slav slums
objectives achieved.
>Russia: If you kill your enemies, they win
I seriously hope the bait and switch ukies offensive will be on Belgorod and that it end in another kharkiv. If you really want me happy, belaruse then attack citing defensive treaty and they collapse in two weeks.
>unilateral peace declaration
please Putin, go ahead and declare peace and victory and demobilize
They already unilaterally declared a ceasefire, remember that? And of course violated it first and immediately, despite Ukraine saying "yeah, we're not abiding by that."
>1 man for 1 enemy regiment
>killing most of the nazis?
there is no way russia had that many nazis in their army. no way the moskva was full of nazis. the ka-52 fleet can’t possibly be like one third nazis
He's desperate because prison recruits for Wagner have dried up and so have volunteers, all while the Putin keeps ordering him to throw all he has at Bakhmut.
>and in a sense, we have really achieved them
HAHAHA
The anus is clenching
the slavs have fought, now it is time for the slavs to squat.
juss dey culcha whitey. mine yo binnis.
Same as saying Kherson is forever Russian. Did that work out?
Honestly Russia took the DNR and LNR. They failed to install a regime change and lost 40,000 men but they achieved that. If this war continues, they might lose whatever meager gains they have.
>Russia took the DNR and LNR
Donetsk oblast isn't taken tho
The front in Donetsk barely moved, really.