Can Russia really win this war? Russia can't topple the government in Kiev and the Ukrainians have no reason to accept any ceasefire that let Russia keep occupied territory.
Can Russia really win this war?
Can Russia really win this war? Russia can't topple the government in Kiev and the Ukrainians have no reason to accept any ceasefire that let Russia keep occupied territory.
puccia has kept the gloves on as a gesture of good will. When the gloves do come off hohols are finished
dub dubs and fpbp. /thread
the smegma is crusting
>When the gloves do come off hohols are finished
"In order for our special operation to truly save Ukraine from Nazification we needed to murder 70% of their population."
It's not Putin's fault that 70% of ukrainians are banderofashists
The other 30% are brotherly people though
>It's not Putin's fault that 70% of ukrainians are banderofashists
Yes, it is literally his fault.
I and every person I know from around here would strangle you with bare hands without a second thought, you deceitful vatBlack person vermin.
t. Ukrainian southerner
Zelenski probably said something similar to Putin right before the war. It's okay though, Ukraine is winning, right?
>70%
Yeah RT is truly lies and sensationalism, anyway...
As a gesture of good will
God, I fricking WISH!
This. Oinkrainians and their HATO handlers can't handle the truth.
I am convinced that these kinds of posts have done more to turn /k/ pro-Ukraine than anything else.
/k/ was pro ukraine from first day
not really, it's pro-ukraine and "I support current thing" since east euro kyiv shills got destroyed on /misc/ and /b/ and then made tactical retreat to /k/ which was too weak and slow board to resist.
>east euro kyiv shills got destroyed on /misc/ and /b/
Both those places are infested by election tourists and underage b& in general. Of course they'd be the ones moronic enough to side with vatBlack folk.
/misc/ is full of /r/The_Donald tourists
Who hate Ukraine because "ZELENSKY SET TRUMP UP FOR SQUID GO PRO IMPEACHMENT!!!"
it's very easy to spot newbies and tourists when they take this stance
/k/ is anti-russia from dealing with constant armatard circlejerking FOR OVER A FRICKING DECADE
Yeah but they'll see old Ivan "rifle is fine" screenshots and Mosin memes and think that they mean we were pro-Russian before the ebil glowies showed up in February.
Ehhh I was pro-Rus because they still had the aura of mystery and T-90s, Hokums and AS VAL were cool as frick, also the whole alternative to (admittedly only slightly more) degen West. At the start it was even like Gulf War with airstrikes and cool paradrops and shit. Finally a modern West vs East war that's not chasing muslims. Then everything else happened, though what made me pro-hohol was how fricking insufferable vatnik Black folk and their /misc/ and lefty/misc/ auxillaries became.
Are you brain dead?
>puccia
Jej
>Can Russia really win this war?
Stick around in the east and south? Sure but they will keep on having heavy losses. You see NATO (the USA) has been waiting for something like this for YEARS. This is like their golden ticket to bleed Russia dry of all their gear. And they are willing to spend years and trillions on it. Also keep in mind, Zelensky is not the one calling the shot anymore. Uncle Sam is.
>Zelensky is not the one calling the shot anymore. Uncle Sam is.
There's no proof for that. If Uncle Sam was in charge, they wouldn't have stubbornly defended Severodonetsk and Lysychansk until the last minute.
>they wouldn't have stubbornly defended Severodonetsk and Lysychansk until the last minute.
Yes, same kind of stubbornness like the Red Army on the WWII eastern front. Considering the bulk of Red Army was made up of ukies it makes sense.
>We wuz the Soviet Union
>The Soviet Union wuz oppressing us we dindu nuffin
You can only choose one, hohol
>You can only choose one, hohol
not ukrainian, Im estonian
They did hold out there until the last minute. Lysychansk was easy to defend from the east (high ground + river) but not if the Russians approached from north & south (which they did, because they finally got the brilliant idea to cross the river somewhere safe).
Yes? I agree with you.
Getting russian troops stuck in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk bought them time
Ukraine wouldnt have access to all the us intelligence (including satalite footage) if uncle sam didnt have the reins. Uncle Sam doesn't care about whites lives either. Uncle Sam is kosher at heart, and seeing whites kill eachother in dorves is the icing on the cake for bringing ukraine into the fold.
Post more 0/10 shilling I'm sure that will turn the board pro-Russia.
first day on the job? You know you'd legitimately make more money for your family if you just gave all this up and became a landscaper in France or something
I want all russians dead
Yes, participants using foreign weapons given to them will do it without any motivation what so ever. All that is needed is Uncle Sam raising its eyebrow. Like Iraq and Afghanistan.
What is with you fricking vatnik morons that you cant grasp that normal human interaction is NOT a slave/master type of deal. Currently there is a neighbor who has a hostile pest in its backyard trying to destroy its house. Uncle Sam also dislikes that pest, as does the entire town since it is a obnoxious aged thug who still thinks he is in his 20s while in reality it is a aged, diseased and alcoholic boomer in his 70s. So they come to an mutually beneficial agreement to provide the tools to get rid of said pest while letting the neighbor do most of the the dirty work.
>For the (Russian) world
>For Russia
>For the president
Putin really is just a budget Mussolini huh?
Vatnik? What the frick are you talking about moron. Nothing I said is Vatnik tier.
Anything you say about Ukraine that someone disagrees with, or even if they agree with it but don't throw in enough insults about Russia, is secretly le vatnigs propaganda trying to foment dissent.
#ZaRusswanaGasStation
As if Ukranians need america to tell them to shot Russians.
>As if Ukranians need america to tell them to shot Russians.
>Zelensky is not the one calling the shot anymore. Uncle Sam is.
Ukraine shills: "Russia is taking too long to defeat ONLY UKRAINE"
Also Ukraine shills:
Except that post is a false flag, and you're a Black person
>Russia is taking too long to defeat ONLY UKRAINE
RIA Novosti had an article about the great Russian victory pre-written in advance of the invasion which was released after two days of fighting.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html
We are now on Day 139 of a two-day "Special Military Operation." Use your brain, moron.
Pls don't pretend that the US planned any of this shit. Most people, apart from redditors or virtue signaling gays, don't pretend to give two shits about ukraine.
>t. vatnik
The United States doesn't want to "bleed Russia" dry. We're not supporting Ukraine as a cynical ploy to make you weak. WE JUST WANT YOU TO GET THE FRICK OUT OF UKRAINE GODDAMNIT. Love your neighbors. God you moscowrats are dense.
Yeah ok, they have been at war since 2014. Why even take sides in a civil war? Zelinisky banned the Russian language and started this shit.
Zelenskiy's main language is Russian you fricking moron. And it wasn't Zelenskiy the pro-russian cuck you mongoloid, it was Poroshenko, and he didn't ban it you wiener-slurping mutt, he just passed a law requiring more UA to be used in media, freedom of language is protected in the CONSTITUTION you failed abortion, and it's not a civil war you double Black person, its an FSB Black person glow op whose networks have been built since the 90s see Strelkov and his butt buddies you OBESE PIECE OF LARD, I REALLY WONDER HOW MUH DONBASS PEOPLE FOUND RUSSIAN T-72'S HIDDEN IN MINES WITH RUSSIAN CREWS HAHAHAHAH
>WHY EVEN TAKE SIDES IN A CIVIL WAR?
SAID THE Black person AIDS RIDDEN homosexual CREATURA THAT SHOULD DIE LIKE THE *pause* DEGENERATE YOU ARE *mic drop*
my fricking sides
good work anon
>freedom of language is protected in the CONSTITUTION
Yeah, we saw how much they care about their constitution when they unconstitutionally removed their president.
Russia cares about constitution even less when they bomb their own citizens to keep their monkey dictator in the power.
>but what about
Funny.
If russians can use it, I can use it too.
Their parliament voted for it, ergo it was constitutional
That's not what constitutional means.
It is because the procedure is written down in their constitution.
And the procedure was not followed.
Watch your mouth rikka Jesus christ
This is not a civil war. The referendums were bullshit. There were no outside observers. The majority of the population fled, and all the 'independent' leaders of the DPR got assassinated by the FSB. They're little puppet Russian territories.
It's tedious repeating these things because you're no doubt a Russian shill. But there you go.
You invaded a sovereign country, and we'll help them until you get the frick out
Uk is not sovrien you homosexual, its a USA pupet. Hell its not even a real country it was invented 30 years ago. get fricked
ukraine literally existed before russia
>it was invented 30 years ago
who are you trying to convince?
>Polish SSR
look you're not making a good point about historical knowledge by posting an althist map
I just checked and apparently it was an idea but never implemented
Since we can see manchu on the map but not commi china I guess the map was made not long after the war and thus the polish state didn't exist yet and so they rolled with polish ssr
(tho yea I just typed "USSR map" and posted the first decent result)
There were never any plans to make a Polish SSR beyond 1920 (in Imperial Russia Poland borders) and VERY maybe one wet dream of Stalin. After the German invasion Stalin had to respect the west somewhat, and he himself said that Poles and Hungarians deserve independence.
It's literally from a dude who makes althistory maps on DeviantArt.
Thank anon, that's some quality map, gotta check it out... and stop posting map without checking the source
>Polish SSR
lmfao
The Rus were holding their base of power in Kiev while Moscow was a Mongolian brothel
>The referendums were bullshit. There were no outside observers.
Far worse, they didn't even have the fricking option to remain part of Ukraine. They literally weren't even given the choice to not become a moronic banan republic of Pootin's. That alone tells you all you need to know about these "referendums".
This is that a century of communism does to you. Every single Russian is a cynical bastard who simply cannot grasp the idea of people cooperating with each other for mutual benefit, without secretly planning to backstab the other in the future.
As if americans were better, bombing and killing hundreds of civilians in the middle east and even in your own country (9/11) just to have the perfect excuse to invade Irak and Afghanistan
>Irak
Wow I wonder who’s behind this post!
Npak
Dude it's spelled irak in like, half of the world
Super Potato is in charge. Supreme Commander Of All Ukrainian Military Forces.
>Zelensky is not the one calling the shot anymore. Uncle Sam is.
Ukrainians are. They want all territories back and Zelensky can't stop them. If Zelensky shows sign of compromising. His people will overthrow him.
I know it's weird for you but you have to think like democratic country
>Mob rule when you can be overthrown the instant you make an unpopular decision is civilized
You realise Athens collapsed exactly for this garbage, and it's the main reason why the US didn't adopt it, right?
>it's the main reason why the US didn't adopt it, right?
You think FDR wouldn't have been ousted if he cucked out to the nips after Pearl Harbor?
FDR was already trying to instigate war, so that's a moot point.
Zdawg never was the one calling the shots buddy
I would say NATO wasn't expecting a war, but since it started they've decided that they might as well exploit it as much as possible. God knows a battered and bloodied Russia would benefit NATO immensely.
more like the israelites in ukraine are bleeding the nato cash dry
>Can Russia really win this war?
Russia lost the moment it decided to invade with that moronic plan.
Now it is just a pointless struggle, that may or may not result into russia keeping a little bit of worthless land but that is not an victory Russia wanted or needed.
they fell for the cia special "and then the population will rise up to support us"
You don’t understand Russia. Russians have an empire for the sake of having an empire, nothing else. Other empires stopped existing when they became unprofitable to maintain. Russian Empire has never been profitable but exists for the sake of existing
No.
The west is simply creating a Ukrainian military that has concrete proof it can't be invaded by Russia.
Another battery of HIMARS has been deployed, brining the total to 12 now .
NASAM and IRIS-T crews are training now and their impact will be felt immediately. MiG-29s are now being transferred.
As Ukraine is worked into an immovable defensive posture, they will get long-range HIMARS which will allow them to destroy Kerch Crimean Bridge, which is one of the final punishments for Russia.
This is true. People all over central eurasia just keep Lenin statues around, and speak Russian, in the absence of anything else. It's a gunpowder empire of the old order, it exists simply in a vacuum.
China can't invade that vacuum, though they're trying. But Western weaons definitely can, and they have.
The old Central Eurasian model seems kaput.
>they will get long-range HIMARS which will allow them to destroy Kerch Crimean Bridge,
You'd need a very strong one to damage it enough as to not be easily repaired.
Can HIMARS use nuclear warheads?
>Can HIMARS use nuclear warheads?
It's technically entirely possible
>ATACMS with M48 warhead
>500lbs of boom
That bridge is on borrowed time.
kek Russia can't repair a spork rn.
>IRIS-T
I will stop you here. Germans are still preparing fricking MARS which should be combat ready for a long fricking time yet we are waiting for it....
What about afgan xDddddd
They said end of July for MARS from the beginning, stop this foolishness.
That bridge must DIE.
Now, I'm not Sun Tzu but how wise is it really to cut off your enemy's one and only retreat? Wouldn't you rather they rout and THEN destroy the bridge rather than doing it the other way and potentially having them fight to the death (because they might not believe that they could safely surrender)?
I have no problem with routing the Russians and effectively banishing them to Crimean Hell. But they must not be allowed to ever leave Crimea. They can burn in that hell.
Why? Recapturing Crimea is the ideal outcome and having them piss off voluntarily would beat them digging in for a last stand.
You might be right.
Seeing the R*ssians killed to the last vatn*g might be more emotionally satisfying but, given the costs that would probably entail, having them retreat back into their trash heap of a home country without a fight is the more strategically sound move, I think.
But again, I'm an armchair general, not an expert (nor a malding warlord, kek).
Ukraine needs to consolidate and boost its forces for a future Crimean invasion, because taking Crimea means fighting a FULL war with all of Russia thrown at it.
It will take many years of preparation. It's not just Crimea they'll be fighting, it'll be all of Russia.
Basically to use an analogy, Crimea to Russia is like Okinawa to Japan.
Whenever Ukraine moves into Crimea, it must prepare to fight all of Russia for it. Because it will be a full-scale war and Ukraine should recharge.
This elaborates better on my post
alot better. Blowing the bridge gives Putin a perfect excuse to turn to special military operation into a full blown war and throw the entire mass of Russia at Ukraine instead of just handing locally sourced conscripts Nuggets and AKMs and telling them to follow the shell explosions. Ukraine can outlast the later but I don;'t think they can hold out against the former without real boots-on-the-ground intervention from the west.
>throw the entire mass of Russia at Ukraine
4th guards tank army with all their modernized T-80's, T-90's, Ka-52 alligators, crack VDV squads, T I G E R S, etc. confirmed for being just a feint. What does Russia have that it's not currently using? It's even already brought out the h y p e r s o n i c s
MUH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOKS
>What does Russia that it's not currently using?
The T-62z
The entire mass of Russia with what equipment? Are you literally just suggesting that all of Russia will march across the border of Ukraine with rusty spoons and take over?
What ever it is it'd be more strategic assets than Ukraine has unless the West has the stomach to pitch in more than a pittance of of HIMARS and self-propelled guns
Russia could not even provide logistics for the force they had literally on the other side of a land border. The only thing Russia can throw it's mass at is the outhouse.
stolen from a post about Kazakhstan, but it still fits.
>it'll be all of Russia.
LMAO, not like much'll be left by the end of it. With their crippled economy it's not like they can replace their armor losses and even a million fresh conscripts (assuming they could even raise, train, equip and supply them) on their own aren't gonna win you a war in the 21st century. Or even in the 20th, really. Just look at the Chinks in Korea.
They shouldn't compromise with Crimea, too. Other than the obvious political implications for compromising it, from a strategic point of view the ports in the Sea of Azov would be at the mercy of the Russians. That is, unless they want to built a canal or something to bypass Kerch.
This is going to be a long war. It will go on as long as neither side isn't collapsing. There are two Russian oblasts that has a connection to the Azov. There's no way Russia would let Ukraine take Kerch, not with the current mindset of the people. It would take maybe half a century or something like the Cold War for the conflict to end.
Wouldn't that start a nuclear exchange?
That's definitely a school of thought, but the Russians seem fonder of the encircle and reduce strat. Same thing with their sieges.
That's the bridge across the Sea of Azov, not Dnieper (where Kherson is located). The possibility of trapping the Southern Russian army in Crimea would bait them into sending reinforcements from the Eastern front (Donbass), but then again they might just be crazy enough to sacrifice the Southern army to push towards the Dnieper from the East instead. You don't really know what they would do.
>Allowing your enemy to survive.
Maybe viable, if it wasn't vodka Black folk. allowing diseased animals to survive was never a Sun Tzu teaching.
And, if you really want to get all Sun Tzu about it, we live in a modern theater of war. Vodka Black folk DO have an escape route: surrender. Unconditional surrender.
Or die.
In old school war, cutting off retreat definitely made soldiers fight harder. But in modern warfare, no amount of valor can defeat artillery and bullets. See Picket's Charge.
Not so effective in urban combat which is what we'd be talking about with Crimea. They can't really pull a R*ssia and level their own cities.
Counterpoint: unlike Russia - who will have to pay for any leveled cities out of their own pocket - Ukraine gets a Marshal plan if they win.
I think he meant literally giving no quarter, as in, you can't surrender, you can't run, destroying the bridge would make it more expensive to basically everything, you'd have to take a boat or a plane, or just surrender (assuming they believe that the Ukrainians won't dig their eyes out). They can do most of those things.
Now, if you'd destroy the bridge, have total air control, have the peninsula completely surrounded by warships, cut off their communications, and broadcast to them that if they surrender their eyes will indeed be cut out by azov 2.0, then yes, that would probably go against that chapter.
I don't think western glowBlack person puppet stringers will allow the bridge to Crimea to be destroyed for fear of escalation
>Russia lost the moment it decided to invade with that moronic plan.
Not really. They've always tried to pull off some dumb shit and got their asses kicked before going back to their old doctrine of bombing everything. It was like that in Chechen and Georgia was like that.
They never learned, basically. Still think they have enough power projection with that kind of pitiful military, economy, etc.
Chenya and Georgia are massively smaller than Ukraine and didn't have any outside support beyond thoughts and prayers.
True but Ukraine is now taking significant losses in land and men given the massive difference in artillery and air power held by Russia
at this rate of advance Russia will need 3 years to get back to the amount of land they had "occupied" 3 months ago lol
Yes ukies need more big booms and dakka. All vatBlack folk must be converted to fertilizer, all 144 million of them. For the betterment of mankind.
Why a Latvian flag?
latvian volunteers in Ukraine ;*~~)
Casualties are high, but Russia also has to take massive losses itself to inflict them. Ukraine is arguably in a superior position to replace and replenish its units than Russia. Casualties alone are not going be the decisive factor in this war. Russia needs to start inflicting strategic and operational defeats on Ukraine, rather than just grinding tactical victories.
>air power
Russia isn't even flying sorties because the losses are unsustainable.
Preventing Ukraine from being able to exploit the oil in the East of the country could be argued to be incredibly valuable to Russia.... IF the entire world hadn't decided to ditch Russia anyway over it's tempter tantrum due to future competition.
Russia is not going to be able to exploit the land in Ukraine it captured either. All those territories are under constant threat of being taken back. Who's gonna invest in an oil rig that could get destroyed tomorrow?
I agree with you, but had the Ukrainians succeeded in exploiting those fields, Russia was screwed either way. Damned if they don't, but with hind sight even more damned that that they do.
Ruzzia actually tried something new for once. Instead of levelling Kiev they fell for the meme that tanks without APS are not complete garbage in the current year.
So like the moronic tankgays they are they lost 500 of them + god knows how many vehicles.
Then they reverted to levelling irrelevant eastern cities.
Without a strategic bombing campaign or another front that cuts off Ukraine's ability to wage war Russia will likely not be able to deal a decisive blow. Assuming the other side will just give up is also not a realistic strategy.
I dunno, maybe. Could you have posted this in one of the other 15 Ukraine threads? Also maybe.
No. Every single one of my thoughts on Ukraine require their own thread, across multiple boards even. It’s the only way I can have an optimally informed set of opinions.
No because the Ukrainians have unlimited funds and supplies.
And a wide open western border to receive them.
They have no counter to himars or the incoming million man offensive. They won't even be keeping Crimea.
>million man offensive.
Will israelitelinsky just give an AK and a shovel to every 16 years old zoomer and tell them to recapture all the lands?
No because it's a meme, they'll keep training new troops at a constant rate, probing for weaknesses and exploiting them when possible.
40 mil people in ukraine
lets say 20 mil left ukraine
that's 20
lets say another 10 mil is old
that's 10 mil
lets say 5 million of those are down syndrome kids who cannot fight
that's 5 million of elgible fighting people
out of those 5 millions let's say 4 million are 16 yo
you still have 1 million left.
some already destroyed
these news of explosions are nothing but news for the war, some picked flashed out image for media, irl not changing anything
None destroyed and russian guns in the east are dead quiet. Keep coping vatnik
Russia will "win" by establishing a couple people's banan republics with basically the current borders and after 20 years of getting blown up by glowie funded azov terrorists they will just leave and pretend this war never happened
Russia's next wave is retirees in Sovet surplus older than them.
There is no war, there is only special military operation. For a guy who want to be Peter the Great, he cannot shake his KGB backstabber identity, by not calling it a war, there is no way he can lose a war.
He was pretty much succeeding in undermining the EU and US via economic and information war tactics, but I think he's realized that he won't live forever and want to be hailed as Putin the Great instead of Putin the Poisoner. So ultimately Russia the people lose here, many soldiers will have died for one man's megalomania.
The problem with a special military operation is that Putin cannot escalate it enough to win either.
>Can Russia really win this war?
no, but Russia can drag it out and cause more suffering
>Can Russia really win this war?
Yes, by adjusting their definition of winning (again).
TACTICAL RETREAT IS WINNING
RUSSIA CAN STILL WIN
2 MORE WEEKS
TRUST THE PLAN
Depends on your definition of "win." If by win you mean conquer all of Ukraine, I see that as unlikely. If by win you mean seize the remaining portions of Donbas and Luhansk to give to their puppets, then it's looking pretty good for them. They're going to have to spend a lot of men and ammunition to do it, but seeing as they've already gotten Luhansk, I'd say they've got a shot to get Donbas too. The sensible thing to do then would be to push hard for peace.
No peace is going to be possible. Ukraine cant trust a word of putin. They have continuously lied and deceived so far. At most it would be a cease fire which both sides would use to strengthen their militaries before next go.
Russia has shown no indication it would be satisfied with just these territories and it would make sense to expect them to reach for more.
Peace may be impossible, but the West is still the West. If the Russians take the rest of Donbas, and if they can hold onto these gains (and that's a big if, since I at least can't tell you when the West will finally tire of pouring resources into Ukraine and revert to the old UN ceasefire circus), then you'll get a frozen conflict like they had for eight years, with Donbas and Luhansk de facto independent and the Ukes unable to reverse it, making it a win in all but name.
Anon, they went from agricultural serfs of the Tsar to industrial serfs of the Soviets. They've known nothing else, just the the Norks, and so they have no reason to rebel.
It's not the same as it was eight years ago. Russia has escalated the conflict with no way of going back. For some reason European countries (France, Germany, Russia) think they could go back to before the invasion. That's not how it's going. The invasion gave so much pretext for the US and the UK to cripple Russia beyond repair, so much that even the opposition parties within their respective countries also support Ukraine. I believe they're already funding opposition groups + Taliban around or even within Russia, including some typical glowie stuff.
>I believe they're already funding opposition groups + Taliban around or even within Russia, including some typical glowie stuff.
It's a known fact Canada in particular did exactly this in Ukraine over the past 8 years, that's the funny thing about being trapped in a war with irregulars you end up picking up all their dirty tricks to pass on. The West's militaries basically went to terrorist school for the past 20 years and have plenty to pass on to others
It's very advanced. An Iraqi ex-PM talked about it once. He got a phone call from Trump, that if he ever tried to pull something shady, Trump would incite a bunch of Sunni protesters into the streets then install some snipers to shoot the police to plunge the country into chaos. Peak glowie stuff.
It's actually easy to get out of that kind of stuff. Just don't blindly follow whatever the Shia or Sunni mullahs say and actually do modern politics, but it's hard for your average Iraqis to not do that, so US glowies keep taking advantage of their blind reverence to their elders or religious figures.
>even the opposition parties within their respective countries also support Ukraine
But not uniformly. Cracks are already showing in that front, and as stockpiles run out and economic issues worsen thanks to our own mismanagement of our economies, the West will lose heart, just like it always does. It's why Korea ended the way it did, it's why Vietnam ended the way it did, it's why Iraq ended the way it did, it's why Afghanistan ended the way it did, and it's why Mali is ending the way it is. Our leaders will give up, Ukraine will no longer be a cause celebre, and everyone reverts to form. The Ukes won't be happy, they may never forgive us, but it's how I expect it to go. The Russians know they can outlast us, they've done it in the past. Until then, they're content to keep throwing men and material into the grinder for marginal gains.
The Russians can't outlast shit without supplies.
Cripple their logistical supply completely, and the entire house of cards collapses.
Vehicles cannot move without fuel. Weapons without ammo cannot fire. Troops without food and water die.
All of these are correct. But as far as I've seen, that tipping point hasn't been reached, and I don't work for the Pentagon or Langley, so I can't say when it will be. The impression the Uke government gives over here is that they don't have enough of what the need to push the Russians over that point anytime soon.
There are not Europeans or Americans dying in Ukraine, this is why this is not going to end like Vietnam or Afghanistan
>Cracks are already showing in that front, and as stockpiles run out and economic issues worsen thanks to our own mismanagement of our economies, the West will lose heart
Pure hopium. The decision-makers for military aid to Ukraine largely aren't accountable to electoral politics. The aid will continue even if public opinion turns against the war (which it isn't). There are no US troops dying. We're spending a fraction of what we wasted in Afghanistan to remove Russia from the board once and for all. The State Department simply isn't going to let this once in a century opportunity slip through their fingers.
it might be for naught anyway since russia seems to have a pretty good chance of collapsing in the next few years. or i dunno. i know russians have a strong tolerance for hardship but are they really be ok with living as serfs in monke's upcoming north korea styled regime?
>are they really be ok with living as serfs in monke's upcoming north korea styled regime?
they were genetically bred for it over a millenia bro
U.S was waiting for it it's own payback for Vietnam and Korea for years and now CIA has it's own fully motivated and blood hungry proxy army. Now my dear alcoholics it's time to finish what most of the civilized world wanted to do.
US has nobody to blame for Vietnam but themselves.
Expect for random Russian speaking pilots in Vietnamese Planes, German WW2 guns and much more equipment that weren't there before?
And Afghanistan too
The only way they could win is by some kind of surprise air campaign.
Like wait until all the big fancy western ground weapons come in like HIMARS.
Then send in their planes to blow them up.
It wouldn’t really be a true victory, because it was pulled off too late, and HIMARS have probably blown up enough targets that they’ve already paid for themselves.
But changing the battlefield to include air combat could introduce enough chaos to where somehow they could eke out some victories.
The only problem is how they can’t seem to SEAD for shit.
Maybe it could at least help confuse the western civy population on what weapons to send.
That’s another thing I don’t understand about the Russian strategy, is they aren’t being as aggressive in misleading the public about weapons in Ukraine.
The seem complacent with the western public being disinterested, which is not what You’d want.
You’d want the western public interested but misdirected, like using bots and agents to shill for old less effective kit like A-10s to be sent over.
Instead, because of the current situation where civies don’t care, it’s given glowies free reign to send in whatever the want.
And they usually pick things that Ukraine actually needs and will make a big difference like HIMARS.
An effective campaign would be to show how Ukraine has been using weapon for war crimes.
But Russian claims about genocide in Donbass were extremely poorly produced.
why doesn't russia just do a genocide in donbass and blame the ukranians?
>Ukrainians have no reason to accept any ceasefire that let Russia keep occupied territory.
They should not if they have brains.
Russia will use ceasefire to slowly expand occupied territories and threaten bigger war if Ukraine protests such action. And unlike big war right now, support for Ukraine will be much smaller , as for many west """politicians""" , that would be a simple "territorial dispute".
So, no, they should not.
No ceasefire, till Russian presence is not removed from Ukrainian land.
can a janny explain how this isn't current events?
>Can Russia really win this war? Russia can't topple the government in Kiev and the Ukrainians have no reason to accept any ceasefire that let Russia keep occupied territory.
the west still doesn't get it, this war isn't meant to be won, Russia is leveling Ukraine and bankrupting the west, the cucked Europeans will pay the reconstruction bill, because virtue signaling is now the main policy drive of democracies ( over the citizens well being )... the west is done, future is autocratic state capitalism, like it or not homosexuals, pretty soon USA will be latino and Europe will be Black person land, both will be owned by China
Can you post your first name so I can Screencap and make fun of you in 2 weeks?
Yes. They're not far off now from securing the eastern gas deposits which is exactly what everything has happened since 2014 is all about. Putin really wanted to to a regime change, which would have been the maximum goal. Having a friendly regime in control of the export facilities would be best for securing Russian gas sales to Europe. But the bare minimum is securing the big gas deposits in the east of the country, Putin will never ever let the West at that gas and cut off the Russian export market. Gas revenue from Europe is what funds a huge part of the tremendous wealth and soft power of Putin's circle of oligarchs.
>They're not far off now from securing the eastern gas deposits
This is bullshit peddled off by schizoids who think that since the Gulf Wars were apparently about oil then every single war must be. But in reality Russians made a gesture of goodwill and feinted twice from the regions in mainland Ukraine that are actually rich in gas (mainly Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts).
rip, the March 3 tentacle
To go further into the gas situation. The big shale gas deposits in Ukraine were discovered 10-12 years ago. In 2013, Ukraine got into a deal with Chevron to frack the new gas fields in November 2013. Three months later, Russia invades. Due to proximity with the war, Chevron pulled out of the deal. Want to know why Russia never gave the separatists more support or tried to settle a peace deal? Having a the war going meant that Western gas companies would be deterred.
Then, in November 2021 Nordstream 2 was killed by the West. THREE MONTHS later, Russia invades again, this time trying to force a regime change and end the threat of Western gas development.
This video does an okay job covering the main points. It doesn't tell the whole story but it's a good introduction to the gas issue driving this war:
>in November 2021 Nordstream 2 was killed by the West
You have timeline wrong. Germans were still pushing nordstream 2 until it became clear that Ukraine would not fall quickly.
The US was pushing hard for Germany to kill Nordstream 2. Germany officially froze the project a few days before the invasion, but I think the political force behind killing it was there beforehand. It's true that Germany had to be pried off Putin dick as usual and even now their industry representatives are pushing to open back up to Russian exports.
>pried off Putin dick
You mean bullied by Amerisharts not to make use of their cheap gas. There's little love lost for Pootin but for an industrial export nation inexpensive raw materials are kinda, y'know, vital. Americlaps where just mad they couldn't offload their stinky, overpriced LNG.
*were
>Americlaps where just mad they couldn't offload their stinky, overpriced LNG.
We're mad because those cuckolds had to have the ENTIRE WESTERN WORLD forcefully rip Germany away from Russian gas because they're too fricking stupid and lazy to do things by themselves, and instead were all fine and dandy with rolling over and not contributing to the greatest cause since World War 2 (which, of course, they were the problem of in that scenario). I have absolutely 0 doubt that if somehow Russia was strong enough to start blitzing Europe, the German government would surrender to Russia before they even took Warsaw. All Germany has done this whole time has been making everything worse for everyone other than Russia until they politically could not risk doing so any longer.
>they're too fricking stupid and lazy to do things by themselves
What does that even mean, Amerishart? This makes zero sense in context. Too lazy to ... what? Magically create gas out of thin air?
Too lazy to go back to Nuclear Energy you dumb bastard. They have their out and they refuse to take it.
It's not an out, you inbred Muttlander. Only 13% of electricity in Germany was generated via gas. It's real use was in industry and for heating homes, especially in the East where it's the standard. Nuclear power would do frick-all in either of those cases. Theoretically, the government could've subsidized people to retrofit their homes with heat pumps or such but that would've cost a frick-ton and taken years.
Also, most of the plants that were shut down were old as frick anyway and would've had to undergo renovations/refurbishments/upgrades (which would still be going on right now) before being allowed to continue. Unless we would have said "frick safety" years ago those reactors would not be available right now either way.
Shell, not Chevron. In 2014, the illegal annexation of Crimea was primarily to deny access to the Black Sea petrochemical fields owned and operated by the sovereign nation of Ukraine. Oil companies at that time had contracts with Ukraine to develop those fields, in the territorial waters of Ukraine. The shale & fracking fields in the Donbas were discovered, but not quantified at the time. Little green men showed up in the Donbas reluctantly because the Russian population of the region started making noise about "Why Crimea and not us?" It was a couple of years before the data on those fields was confirmed, and that's why the fighting and fake "civil war" intensified from 2016 and onward rather than fizzled out.
Oh, gee, what else happened in 2016 ..? I think they locked her up for that. Or something whatever.
Also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2
>German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had been in favour of the project,[1] suspended its certification on
22 February 2022,
> following official recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic by the Russian State Duma and President Putin.[2]
Your youtube video is an uninformed, yapping idiot. Don't believe the first link you click on; try to get informed a little on reality before you start sperge posting.
Bash their heads against the wall and grind Ukraine down with artillery for 6 years, advancing 100 feet a day and hope the west stops supporting Ukraine enough to allow an armored breakthrough spearheaded by T-55s and BMP-2s fresh out of mothball.
>Ukrainians have no reason to accept any ceasefire that let Russia keep occupied territory
They will once enough of them are dead.
at this point, russians are dying something like 10 to 1 i'm not sure they can hold out as long
>Can Russia really win this war?
lol no? I thought that was obvious since those fronts collapsed. Russia's military is a fricking joke.
It's going to settle into WWI-tier trench warfare in the East that goes on for like 20 years. There will be weeks, even a month of more where not a single shot is fired and opposing forces are sitting behind cover and in trenches just waiting to see something worth shooting at. In the meantime, the world will stop caring and life will go on, albeit different that it was prior to early 2022.
lol Russia is already resorting to digging up rotted out T-62s lesss than 6 months into the war, but sure they'll sustain the conflict for another 20 years.
Ukraine is constantly trained in more advanced weaponry.
If this war goes on for an another half-a-year, Ukrainean army is the most advanced military in the world.
>Can Russia really win this war?
No. They lost the second the Ukrainians started to fight back and didn't fold as expected. It would be a loss even if they didn't get Western support and Russia would have to contend with a massive insurgency. But this right here is their nightmare scenario. They can keep grinding and pushing back, but there is no longer any strategic goal beside "keep going, disregard the losses and hope they give up". Except Russians have made it clear in both words and actions that they want to destroy Ukraine as a nation. So now, Ukrainians have no choice but to fight, because giving up means genocide. And since they are backed up into a corner and have infinite support from the West, they can keep going. There will be terrible losses, but this is unironically their own Great Patriotic War. The Russians made exactly the same mistakes as the Germans, both in militarily and politically.
It'd be another Winter war where the Russians will slowly but steadily advance (with heavy losses) until they're at the gates of the capital and then It's the political leadership who'll surrender and cease land to Russia and declare neutrality: https://youtu.be/1Uk5bY22RSE?t=5923
I really wonder if a war where country of 200 million fought against a country of 3 million which had practically no foreign support can be compared to a war where country of 144 million fights against a country of 44 million which has the whole western war engine backing them up?
The Euros are already feeling the consequences of this war, you think that their support will keep up when the Winter comes and there's 0 russian gas flowing?
Well, then ukraine just fights on without support.
It is not like they actually need that much more when ruskies have been already reduced to using ww1 equipment.
>Well, then ukraine just fights on without support.
Ukraine literally ran out of their soviet storage (a lot of people seem to have forgotten about Ukranian ammo depots blown up by Russian missile strikes at the start of the invasion and are now raving about HIMARS blowing up few depots close to the front), and the fact that even their munition factories were also destroyed. This is why now Ukraine is begging for western equipment and currently are only able to keep fighting with the ammo and equipment constantly being supplied by the West. What will they do once that supply dries up?
So what? Ukraine will get Western gear and by the end of the war will be up to NATO standards (in terms of equiptment usage), but by the end of the war Russia will be spent.
I wonder what'll happen if winter comes and there is no food in Russian grocery stores.
Why would that be a problem when they're the largest agricultural exporter in the world and are in the process of taking over the most fertile lands of Ukraine?
What farmer is going to try to harvest their winter wheat in the middle of a warzone? When their field is filled with UXO that the benevolent liberators so kindly left?
Let's see, of the oblasts highlighted in dark green
>Odessa oblast: fully held by Ukraine
>Vinnytsia oblast: fully held by Ukraine
>Dnipropetrovsk oblast: fully held by Ukraine
>Kharkiv oblast: mostly held by Ukraine
>Zaporhizhzia oblast: partly held by Ukraine
>Kherson oblast: counteroffensive in two more weeks
>Donetsk oblast: partially held by Ukraine
>Poltava oblast: fully held by Ukraine
>Mykolaiv oblast: almost fully held by Ukraine
>Kirovohrad oblast: fully held by Ukraine
>Ternopil oblast: fully held by Ukraine
Is the next disinfo map to spam resource maps and then affirming that all of Ukraine's natural wealth is located in Donbass even when everyone can clearly see that the resources are in central, western and northern Ukraine?
oblast: counteroffensive in two more weeks
lel
Oh no the euro dropped by 5% value compared to the dollar, it's over for Europe guess the continent will just sink in the ocean.
Why do you think It lost that value? It's investors selling their euro assets to flee to the USA or China in fears of a larger war in Europe and also the energy crisis they WILL face this winter
>you think that their support will keep up when the Winter comes
Yes. Can't speak for the rest of Europe, but as an Englishman, yes we will keep supporting Ukraine.
I think you underestimate our tenacity.
First elect your new clown before you spout about what the UK will do this winter
Unlike russians, real governments can work just fine without a clown as head
>he doesn't know about the deep state and thinks long strategies and geopolitical ambitions change with every election
It's the conservative party electing a new clown, not the general public. If you don't understand politics go leave until you do. And it doesn't change the man on the street.
Russia is going to pay a heavy price for this invasion, and I'll be helping anyway I can.
Personally, I already have my woodshed full, and 350kgs of coal stockpiled for my dual fuel wood burner. I also have two 13kg tanks of propane for my stove. My dry foods store under the stairs is full and it's not even August.
How's your winter preparations?
It's only Germany who had 2/3 of it's gass from Russia, all other nations in the EU have other sources, with at most only 1/3 of their gas from Russia.
EU is going to burn a shitload of coal this summer and Germany will reopen it's nuclear plants to fill in the gap.
And ofcourse some really expensive gass from isreal and the US, those frickers are going to be laughing all thé way to the bank.
Regardless of where you source your gas the price will increase drastically this winter. It's supply and demand. There will be protests and whinging, but ultimately, I think most European countries will hold their nerve and keep hurting Russia by helping Ukraine. With the exception of Germany. Germany will fold. There are no strong men in Germany anymore. The women will tell them to bend the knee to Russia, and they will.
>Germany will fold
Says anon, as folding Scholz and his party are rapidly losing public support in surveys.
Stahlhelm Habeck will fix everything.
What do you think will happen to Russia now with half their economy gone and extreme unemployment looming?
>Car production down 99%
>Car sales down 97%
>Machine production down 85% (according to Russian state sources so probably more)
Who will break first? Unemployed people with nothing to eat or people who lost access to 30% of one resource?
>The euro dropping by 5% means it’s over for Ukraine
Uhhhhhh okay. Are you wearing your helmet today?
Dubs, and this war will end with the "gesture of goodwill" out of Crimea.
Are you moronic? They're literally winning as we speak
i dont get it
something i dont think anyone else has questioned is, when the invasion first started, one of the big factors in its stalling is because the logistic network of the attacking force bogged down partially due to the ground turning into mud due to snowmelt and rain, the first 3 months were in spring after all, this phenomenon is caused by raspubreastsa, this comes back in autumn when the fall rain arrives in the region again, can russia handle the mud this time?
In the initial stage of invasion, they literally crossed fields in an attempt to perform a blyatzkrieg and got bogged down. Their supply lines had to go along highways and couldn't reach everywhere, since the railroads were blown up by ukies. Nowadays, the war is positional, and the russkies most likely repaired railroads and are bringing supplies that way. This is not dependent on weather. However, field maneuvers will still be affected by the raspubreastsa, but I am doubt it will have as drastic of impact as before, due to the nature of engagements at this point.
the return of march 25th
is upon us
enjoy /k/opers
I'll answer your question with my set of questions:
1. Will sanctions stay as they are? perhaps get worse?
2. If sanctions stay or get worse, what will happen to Russia the next few years?
3. As they attempt to readjust to do most of their trade with China, will they ever keep growing, or will they stagnate or shrink over the years?
4. What are the ramifications of a nuclear-armed state slow crumbling into nothingness? Terrorist threats, black market deals, etc..?
These are the real questions, even if Russia captures half of Ukraine and meets their initial goals, the above will still be relevant.
>1
They'll have to be lifted eventually, it's already causing massive issues to the global system.
>2
If the West is moronic enough to make them more severe (not actually that unlikely, due to the trend of "feelz over realz"), it will permanently damage trust in the global system, which heavily damage US power abroad.
>3
I think Russia was going to stagnate regardless of whether they stayed as is or not, I do think they'll be worse off economically.
>4
Russia isn't going to crumble, at worst it will fall from great power status to secondary, and will never recover.
>Russia isn't going to crumble
Consider the following
>sanctions mean no industry and no trade
>no industry and no trade mean no economy
>no economy means that they can't pay jizya to their pet churkas anymore
>no industry and depleted human capital means that they cannot sustain a war against separatists after barely getting by the first time
Russia IS collapsing a third time in the span of a century if they don't change course anytime soon and it will be real fricking ugly with separatists, political extremists and foreign peacekeepers like the first time.
As far as I can tell, Russia is massively reducing its dependency on the global system, and while their industry has obviously taken a hit, it can still recover.
You already have places like India distancing themselves over the US illegally seizing Russians assets abroad (seriously, who the frick would be dumb enough to trust the US to keep their word after that), and no, this isn't a WWII situation.
And my answer to that last part? If it's for targets in Europe or the US? Good. Maybe that's what it'll take to convince you morons that foreign entanglements should be avoided.
Then I take that back, Russia will fall even lower.
You now recall the US illegally seizing Russian assets abroad.
Above.
God you people are stupid. Then again this is /k/, you people only understand shooty shooty, not the political and economic consequences (outside of whatever the MSM tells you). GAE is going to collapse before the century is out, maybe even halfway through.
>US illegally seizing
Dwym illegally?
Also, EU is seizing russian assets as well, don't forget.
Okay, in response to the invasion, the US and their puppet states seized Russian assets with no legal basis, i.e illegally, in response. Is that clear enough?
>lol wats the issue lol
Who is going to want to trust their valuables with a party that is demonstrably not trustworthy?
>US and their puppet states
ivan please
>Who is going to want to trust their valuables with a party that is demonstrably not trustworthy?
This is why the majority of people keep their valuables in EU / US and not in russia.
Oh come on, you don't seriously believe that the US and NATO isn't akin to Macedon and the Hellenic League?
>but Russia
You don't get it, sovereign countries are going to withdraw from a global system and either focus regionally or completely internally. If you can't see how the US's actions are causing that, you might be moronic. Scratch that, you are moronic.
>Oh come on, you don't seriously believe that the US and NATO isn't akin to Macedon and the Hellenic League?
I don't get why wrote this. Explain.
>You don't get it, sovereign countries are going to withdraw from a global system and either focus regionally or completely internally.
I think you better learn some basic economy. Also, why would they do it?
No, read history.
I think you should, do you really think this system is sustainable? Do you really think you can endlessly rely on the third world providing you with cheap labour and resources? If you do, you're going to be in for a rude awakening.
>I think you should, do you really think this system is sustainable?
Yep, so what was your point?
Enjoy the pod 🙂
What? Can you speak English?
He's a meme-addicted /misc/gay, of course he can't so he latched on dumb shit like the "live in a pod" doomsaying.
>Do you really think you can endlessly rely on the third world providing you with cheap labour and resources?
Yes?
What makes you think you can't just extract all the value from Africa?
> You don't get it, sovereign countries are going to withdraw from a global system and either focus regionally or completely internally. If you can't see how the US's actions are causing that, you might be moronic. Scratch that, you are moronic.
You sound completely unaware of how dependent most countries are on the first world. They’re not selling their resources and labor for no reason.
You probably have the typical 3rd worlder mindset where you assume the first world is rich because of exploitation, and when the third world rises up, everything will change.
Tbf thats not just a 3rd world mindset. Honestly most people have no idea have no idea just how dependent everything is on trade. For everyone. A car from Japan has breaks from Germany, sensors from France, chips from Taiwan, steel from China, cobalt from the Congo, software from the US, etc. in it.
Russia just deleted it's entire economy to become like North Korea or Venezuela. Their entire industry has already collapsed and barely maintained production with their leftover inventory.
And the reason is that most people have no connection to trade. They see their iPhone 'made in China' while it's value is added anywhere but there. People see a Ford from the US and ignore the half of the car that is made with foreign parts.
>B-But oil and gas
That's not an economy, that is plutocrats selling oil and gas and pocketing the profit and sending them to the Cayman islands. What is the normal worker going to do? The shop owner? The tool producer? The entire economy is dead. Like Venezuela.
>People will stop trusting the global financial system any day now!
>Once Eritrea is unable to genocide half it's population and sell government debt other important countries like Syria, Chad and Russia will pull out!
Ok, Ivan/Prajeesh. It's all so tiresome.
>The global economic system is just going to stop because... BECAUSE IT JUST IS OKAY?!?
This is the view of an actual child. You have no understanding of the incentives of real world economics, at all.
>If the West is moronic enough to make them more severe (not actually that unlikely, due to the trend of "feelz over realz"), it will permanently damage trust in the global system, which heavily damage US power abroad.
I've heard that before, I think that using the financial system to punish Russia is not that bad, especially when it took a WW2-like war to trigger it, most people can agree that Russia started this war, and if they don't, they're objectively wrong.
>Russia isn't going to crumble, at worst it will fall from great power status to secondary, and will never recover.
Mostly doesn't answer my question though, with endemic corruption like Russia's (136th out of 180!), will their hold on nukes keep them away from rogue elements like terrorists? Naturally, we're talking mostly about suitcase nukes or something you can fit on vehicle. That's what terrifies me.
>Russia isn't going to crumble, at worst it will fall from great power status to secondary
But putin told that russia isn't great power lol.
>They'll have to be lifted eventually, it's already causing massive issues to the global system.
EU / US sanctions don't damage global system, russian sanction cause minor issues for now, but when civilized countries reduce their dependency on russian resources it will pass.
>it will permanently damage trust in the global system, which heavily damage US power abroad.
How exactly sanctioning a state of terror damage trust?
But putin said that sanction are good for rusland.
>Russia isn't going to crumble, at worst it will fall from great power status to secondary
It hasn't been a great power in 30 years
>1
Russia in scope of world economy is a spec of dust, with GDP being compared to Italy. Lot of money comes from exporting oil and gas, both having ever dwindling importance. With Russia being only to sell they gas and oil to China and India.
>2
Yeah "The West" which exist in quantum state (at same time pinnacle of human technology and at same time moronic). Again Russia is spec of dust when it comes to everything, which is incomprehensible to vatBlack folk. World will do fine without Russia. At this point it is much more economical to suffer trough lost market share for 2 years and destroy Russia economy and then make Russia reliant on export from The West.
>3
China just CAN'T produce CPUs or GPUs for example. One great example is civil air fleet. With sanctions in full effect Russian civil air transporters CAN'T buy spare parts from Airbus or Boeing meaning they had to ground some planes and cannibalize them for rest of fleet. As times passes less and less planes will be available for Russians. This will make it harder for Russians to fly routes (as evident during Covid-19, when planes flew empty) in order to keep them from paying fines and airport slots (which can be lost if you don't have X plane and Y time at Z airport). As this happens where do you think pilots are going to end up? Yes they will end up on "the moronic West" which will gladly accept them. You can apply this concept to any branch of economy that relies on export/import.
>4
As much as i dislike Russians, their state of mind and way of doing business I seriously doubt they will sell nuclear material on black market.
Of course this line of reason can't be understood by simpleton and neocons, who will raise their eyebrows and say Puccia Strong they are so smart they will endure.
Binkov nailed it. Russia will become country of cheap labor for EU. At least beets relaying on fricking chinks.
lol moron
do continue please
>World will do fine
You realise there are countries that are already having food riots, right?
There will be ALWAYS counties with food shortage.
Oh no, not the heckin third worlderino countries in Africino and Southerino Americino!!!
>You realise there are countries that are already having food riots, right?
What countries are these?
Not him but most likely he will say Sri Lanka, country that has problems for last two years, not last 3 months
in addition to post if anymore wants to know more
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/airplanes-empty-slots-covid
https://simpleflying.com/inside-airport-slots/
>Ukrainians have no reason to accept any ceasefire that let Russia keep occupied territory.
So what's their plan? To continue to lose more territory? Kek
Their goal is to grind as much russian military as possible while EU / US are destroying russian economy. They don't have a choice.
The only way they can "win" is if they can somehow bring Ukraine to heel which at this rate Russian logistics and supplies are gonna collapse before that happens. Whatever Ukraine loses can easily just be replaced thanks to NATO. Russia cant say the same and with HIMARS blowing up Russian ammo depots with no way of stopping them, I honestly have no idea how they can do this.
Russia's not trying to take over all of Ukraine. That was something they lightly considered at the start of the war just as a ballpark attempt.
Bare minimum: Keeping Crimea, and taking most of Donbas.
Ideal: Taking the entire southern and eastern parts of the country. Russia wants the oil and gas deposits, and it wants to monopolize the Black Sea.
Good enough: Fail to take Budjak (Southern Odesa) but manage to take the rest of the southern coast and hold Donbas and Crimea.
Part of the reason they want the south and east is because of the oil and gas deposits. Their ideal scenario is to monopolize access to the Black Sea, thereby cutting Ukraine off from Turkey while the lack of maritime access would hurt their financial situation and trade prospects.
>Part of the reason they want the south and east is because of the oil and gas deposits
Ukraine won't let them dig their resources.
>Bare minimum: Keeping Crimea, and taking most of Donbas
Didn't they occupy these lands in 2014?
>Russia's not trying to take over all of Ukraine
I think they wanted in the beginning of the war, but broke their teeth and unwrapped slow warfare.
>Ideal: Taking the entire southern and eastern parts of the country. Russia wants the oil and gas deposits, and it wants to monopolize the Black Sea.
>Good enough: Fail to take Budjak (Southern Odesa) but manage to take the rest of the southern coast and hold Donbas and Crimea.
So their ideal or good enough scenario is taking regions from which they already retreated as a gesture of goodwill?
>as a gesture of goodwill?
There's no goodwill in this war.
>Didn't they occupy these lands in 2014?
Losing them would be utter loss. That's the bare minimum otherwise the war would have been counter-productive.
>I think they wanted in the beginning of the war, but broke their teeth and unwrapped slow warfare.
Mentioned that in the very first line. They were throwing shit at the wall to see if anything stuck.
Russia needs for the uuks to suffer a political loss. They need to do something that pisses off the rest of the world and removes this seemingly unconditional and unending foreign support. If that happens then Russia stands a chance.
At this point the only reason why it goes on is because a bunch of old farts in Russia are trying to stave off consequences of the shitshow they caused. Russia's entire identity will crumble and they'll be rightfully blamed for that
Putin supporters always use gay innuendos and/or sadomasochism in order to illustrate their points. I don't know why.
Excuse me, that picture is inaccurate. Russia never controlled that territory in the north, they only controlled the roads. Get it right, bigot.
Imagine if that jpg was a Map of China and the US Military was the colored portion
>the Ukrainians have no reason to accept any ceasefire that let Russia keep occupied territory.
Besides the 1000’s they have dying a day for every few Russians they kill.
>Having more casualties on defense than on offense
that's not how wars work buddy
>that's not how wars work buddy
It is when you have vastly more artillery and the enemy outnumbers you and is just sitting in place, moron.
>vastly more artillery
not for long at the rate the HIMARS are hunting
Oh, the like, what 12 of them? That’ll definitely turn the tide vs their 1000’s of pieces...
Vatnik, without something called AMMO, your 1000s of artillery are worse than nothing.
Ukraine will take out ALL your ammo supplies, lol.
>Can't hit because both shells and artillery are from 1965
>Can't shoot because your last ammo depot just got hit
>Can't make more because you aren't able to import crucial parts
Russia is unable to use artillery as can be seen on the map. The Russian logistics system is not good enough to supply troops more than a truck drive away from it's original supply depot and can't advance further than 80km from the border. And they never will.
Speaking to my fellow Anglosphere people. I think it’s a bad idea for us to start killing Russians directly. These people should be taken care of, not slaughtered in a war. We’ve avoided direct military confrontation with them for like a 100 years, and they’ve been our allies several times during that period. They’re under an unfortunate regime of criminals turning the nation into a tinpot oil barony. We shouldn’t put up with it. However, stomping down on Russians would be a huge mistake. Let’s leave it at weapons aid for Ukraine. Russia is clearly no threat to us militarily. This BS will pass. Meanwhile, our Australians are working hard to gear up for dealing with China. We need to be there to support them even more.
they seem fine as long as they're killing ukrainian trannies
Trouble is that Russia could learn from this conflict, and not in a good way for us. More effective militarily and logistically, but still as malevolent and destructive as usual. We don't want to deal with a beligerent R and Ch at the same time. It's best if it's defanged, preferably by partition into workable states (e.g. by ethnicity); either way, it needs to be destroyed as much as possible without triggering nukes.
Russia has had fricking decades to learn anything about running an effective combined arms campaign. If they couldn't learn frick all before they decides to stumblefrick around Ukraine like fascist morons, what could they POSSIBLY glean from any of this now?
>what could they POSSIBLY glean from any of this now?
They just have FFS. Settling back to their tried and trusted indiscriminate artillery onslaught rather than maneuver. The Wehrmacht got within sight of Moscow, but were eventually beaten back. Never underestimate the enemy, however inept they are - even vatniks.
Depends on if Putin is able to keep corruption down in the military sector. In terms of practical experience, the Russian military might come out better in a decade or two. The Soviet era generals are dropping like flies, so there's probably promotions all over the place
It is within the realm of possibility that Russia achieves some positive outcome, but uhhh... yeah, idk senpai.
The attritional war isn't going well for Ukraine. They need to learn how to conduct offensive operations as soon as possible (not just attacking a retreating army like in Kyiv/Northern Front), while the West needs to send an adequate AMOUNT of weaponry, not just half a dozen of cool weapons or something. Why Western politicians are so short-sighted, I don't know. It's like they don't really care about the whole thing anymore.
They've got like 10 or 12 himars now and like 5 or 6 m270s. That's plenty for now. You don't understand that these aren't like shitty tube artillery that take a whole battery to do anything useful. They're more like mini cruise missiles.
The rockets cost a lot of money, so I'm worried that politicians would use that as an excuse to bail out of the conflict.
My personal favorite is a smallpox attack on Mykolaiv and Odessa to significantly weaken the southern defense lines so Russia can take southern Ukraine. Kyiv should remain in Ukrainian hands but Kharkiv must go to Russia as well, so another smallpox attack there would be called for.
>t. moronic vatn*k who doesn't understand how germ warfare works
Slow advances will continue for a few months, russia will annex luhansk and donetzk and with that declare the special military operation a success and sign an armistice. The south will still be occupied for a landbridge to crimea.
So in short, nothing really interesting is going to happen for the next few years
>and sign an armistice.
Ok but what if Ukraine refuses to sign the armistice.
They signed one in 2014, they likely will do it again
contracts with russians are not even worth the paper they are on, ukies know that now
Ukraine will need to be in a military position where they can continue on their own. The west will want it over and at some point they're going to stop handing Ukraine a billion dollars every week. It is in American and European interests to see Russia military drained and internationally weakened, but there is also an economic interest in things going back to something closer to the pre-war norm. The West's largesse is not infinite, and despite the brave words of politicians, they will collectively turn their back on Ukraine if it suits them.
The key for Ukraine then is to get the war to the point where they are decisively winning before the western support trails off. The problem with that condition is that it requires the total collapse of the Russian military (which despite their abysmal performance still doesn't seem likely) or continuous offensive progress (which they haven't been able to achieve yet). If Ukraine's drive towards Kherson succeeds and they cross the lower Dniper in force that would change the current trajectory. I don't know what kind of timeline the West is setting for themselves, but it was likely worked out at the Madrid summit. Whether it's longer or shorter than Ukraine needs is unknown.
Maybe Germany and France, but I don’t see the US or Poland wanting peace with Russia anytime soon
Oh, they'll agree to peace readily enough ... if the terms are sensible. But knowing Pootin, they're not gonna be. He'd rather have hundreds of thousands die senseless deaths before having R*ssia take an indisputable L on the world stage. If after all these costs (financial, humanitarian, political, ...) he ends up having to sign a peace deal which concedes all pre-invasion territory or worse (e.g. leaving the Donbas and Crimea entirely, too) then he might as well shot himself in the back twice and save his would-be assassins the trouble. At that point it wouldn't even matter if the Ukrainians mouthed empty promises like "We'll definitely not join NATO and agree to certain arms restrictions" in return.
His grip on power is pretty solid but I doubt it is THAT solid. To get that clearly BTFO on the world stage would be more than those vodka-pickled Snow Nigerians could take, I think.
*shoot
Also, it might end up that way regardless but in that case it would be the circumstances forcing his hand rather than diplomats actually voluntarily working some similar agreement out.
Russia has a long way to go before donetsk is fully captured
Ukraine will never sign a useless "treaty" with the Russians ever again btw, any concept of zelensky and monke sitting at big table signing a treaty of eternal peace is pure fantasy. UAF will keep fighting until they are destroyed or Russia withdraws to the pre invasion borders
>UAF will keep fighting until they are destroyed
Acceptable.
Yes, Iranian drones will be a game changer.
Wait, Russia is dependent on Iranian aerospace technology now?