Bakhmut

It's been nearly half a year since this battle started and NOBODY can answer what is so important about this tiny town tthat Russia is willing to sacrifice tens or thousands of men for.

Why are ziggers so obsessed with this town? It's not even a major crossroad.

  1. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Go to the geopolitics board dumb moron this is a weapons board. Post guns. If you do any squirming you are confirmed a noguns europoor

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >I entered a thread I don't like and got mad, how could this have happened
      not your hugbox snowflake

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >Go to the geopolitics board
        no such thing unfortunately

        >squirming
        Noguns gays confirmed

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          guns are for gays

          • 2 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            Do you even know where you are?

            • 2 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              the only board where the war can be discussed, kinda

              • 2 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                There is a board that’s right up your alley, where you can discuss everything related to this war. Every single “happening.” In fact, “happening” is a favorite phrase on this other board

              • 2 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >Go to the geopolitics board
                no such thing unfortunately

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Go to the geopolitics board
      no such thing unfortunately

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >1/17/23
      how does it feel to be a gay?

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        t. noguns

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        He is (unfortunately) a regular with that forced meme of his, I have no doubt he is legitimate since his post aligns with previous mudda postings.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      [...]
      >squirming
      Noguns gays confirmed

      Post guns and timestamp gay

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Pardon the shaky hand I just ran 4 miles

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      massive seethe

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      fuck ya mudda

      posting is glow posting so they can find the shit in archive searches faster
      imagine ever 'posting your guns' here

      [...]

      >Attrition favors the attackers, rather than the prepared defenders, actually

      Just never comment on matters of warfare again.

      favors the attackers, rather than the prepared defenders, actually
      >Just never comment on matters of warfare again.
      lmfao, listen to your bitch ass:
      >Russia is a 'prepared defender'
      in an invasion?

      lmfao, i thought the ukraine was defending it self from Russian aggression?
      but here you are saying its Russia actually defending itself from the ukrainian aggression?

      you nafo fags better get your stories straight.
      i can tell by the mess you gays shit into every thread, that youre struggling BIG with 'narrative control' now that your pig-whiped and retreeeeating and regrooooouping in a blind panic

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        You have the reading comprehension of a toddler anon.

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >You have the reading comprehension of a toddler anon.
          ukrop shill mental gymnastics are beyond pathetic anymore.
          i couldnt give a single fucking shit how you cope about casualties, the ukraine is getting fucking demographically devastated by Russian artillery fire, and you can cope, seethe and bitch in whatever flavor you want man.

          im going to sit back, and watch the ukraine lose its WHOLE ass, and youre going to sit there and fucking seethe, and write novels about how
          >"um acshully um you see, the casualties favor Russians because well they just do ok!"
          i simply dont care how you juggle the cope in your own head

          [...]
          [...]
          I just took a look because I know there are major roads in Bakhmut and you know what I found?
          The H20 running through Kramatorsk 20km to the east.
          While the loss of Bakhmut won't be good for Ukraine it isn't like Russia is going to gain a huge advantage from it. Ukraine will have to cover the last 20km of their supply lines on secondary roads.

          >While the loss of Bakhmut won't be good for Ukraine it isn't like Russia is going to gain a huge advantage from it.
          AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA
          HAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHA
          when the ukraine loses bakhmut,
          thats the whole war for you dipshits.
          youre going to be pushed back to keev, to await your final ass beating, and inevitable surrender

          • 2 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            The only one writing novels is you.

          • 2 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            >HAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHA
            >when the ukraine loses bakhmut,
            >thats the whole war for you dipshits.
            Lay off the krokodil, m8.
            The only decisive knock out blown Russia could inflict would be seizing Kiev, and we all know how that turned out.

  2. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    the significance of artemosvk is zelensky's willingless to expend the entire ukraine's adult male population trying to hold onto it.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >It's been nearly half a year since this battle started and NOBODY can answer what is so important about this tiny town tthat the ukraine is willing to sacrifice tens or thousands of men for.
      >Why are hohols so obsessed with this town? It's not even a major crossroad.

      i too,
      have no clue why the ukraine was willing to kill off its male-population for this absolute Russian shithole.
      it makes no sense why the ukraine was willing to kill 390k of its best men, and some of its women, for rightful Russian clay.

      I hope you get to the bottom of this OP, a thousands of metric-tons of ukrainain flesh are now dead for this place.
      Putler should be tried at the hague ok

      >Attrition favors the attackers, rather than the prepared defenders, actually

      Just never comment on matters of warfare again.

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        In a war where more than 90% of casualties come from the artillery? Yeah, attrition absolutely favors the side which has 8:1 advantage in artillery.

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Russia is only firing at 25% now of their previous rate. Also, russian tubes are worn out and incapable of accuracy.

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          No, not really.

          You can burn out your tubes firing in the enemy’s direction, but it’s what that enemy is DOING when your rounds,(assuming that they’re accurate, and that they detonate), are DOING when they burst.

          If they’re standing around out in the open or sitting in soft skinned vehicles, bad news.

          If they’re snug in a dugout 10-15 feet underground waiting for the shelling to stop, then all you’ve done is put on a fireworks display.

          And shown your batteries’ locations for any counter-battery fire or air strikes.

          I’m intrigued of the stories about the Russians using their tanks as artillery pieces…I don’t know what to make of that, frankly.

          A tank gun is not a howitzer. It’s a whole different type of artillery, and not at all meant to be employed that way. Against LOS direct fire targets, sure…but against entrenched infantry? It’s a waste if they ain’t shooting HE against a manned hard point, (which isn’t likely to be manned if enemy tanks are in sight, and the tank firing against it is going to attract ATGMs and some arty counter-strikes on its own account).

          Even Russians can’t be THAT stupid.

          • 2 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            >I’m intrigued of the stories about the Russians using their tanks as artillery pieces…I don’t know what to make of that, frankly.
            It's nothing particularly interesting or unique. Tanks can be used in the indirect role but it's fairly rare and mostly fell out of favor in the 80s. Tanks in Korea were routinely used for ad hoc artillery. Even the original M1's had gunnery tables for indirect fire.

            • 2 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              Yes, I remember the photos of US tanks dug in pointing upwards to shred hillsides of Bugmen with beehive rounds in Korea, but Jesus, man…that was 70 fucking years ago!

              Tanks have kind of specialized since then…

              • 2 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                It was a little more common in the old days because many tanks were still rolling with low velocity guns like the Sherman’s 75mm so they could easily lob big HE shells in an arcing trajectory.

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >90%

          NINETY FUCKING PERCENT?

          Jesus christ, what kind of copium huffing is this. What kind of peyote did you munch down on to come to the conclusion that a war that has only a fraction of the artillery output of WW1 with a vastly more available array of counter measures somehow has ended up with artillery causing 1.5x rate of kills of WW1 artillery in terms of how much of the total casualties it accounted for.

  3. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >It's been nearly half a year since this battle started and NOBODY can answer what is so important about this tiny town tthat the ukraine is willing to sacrifice tens or thousands of men for.
    >Why are hohols so obsessed with this town? It's not even a major crossroad.

    i too,
    have no clue why the ukraine was willing to kill off its male-population for this absolute Russian shithole.
    it makes no sense why the ukraine was willing to kill 390k of its best men, and some of its women, for rightful Russian clay.

    I hope you get to the bottom of this OP, a thousands of metric-tons of ukrainain flesh are now dead for this place.
    Putler should be tried at the hague ok

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >390k

      uh it was actually 470k lost at bakmut you delusional hohol

  4. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Putin wants a victory so he can tell his ppl that Russia is winning

  5. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    using prison free death squads to force Ukraine to commit reserves from Zaporizhizhia, relief the southern front until Gerasimov is ready for the next offensive.

  6. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Bakhmut is the remains of The Great Cauldron Strategy. Remember when Russians supposed to encircle entire Ukrainian Donbass task force? Goals were shifted to small and smaller encirlament. Bakhumt is south offensive axis of the smallest encirclement. Also Northern pincer (Izyum axis) were lost by Russians.

    But today Russians completely forgot this they only know that they need to assault this town no matter what, casualties doesn't matter! Many such cases with Russians, when they spill blood for case that doesn't matter now and they don't know why.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Sounds plausible.
      First wave is dead, second wave is dead..., so now the next wave is cargo culting the ancestors.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I remember that. They were shilling for a buffet-sized bite of Ukie turf then they realized they had the jaws of an ant.

      Actually, I don’t think the Vatniks are capable of Maneuver Warfare anymore.
      They’ve lost too many tanks and IFVs, and you don’t need ATGMs to deal with trucks and pedestrians.
      And if the Ukies keep zapping Vatnik logistics, the poor Mobniks sent forward will have to resort to cannibalism to stay fed while they wait to get drone-popped or mortared.

      These next few months is when we’re going to see the sanctions really start to bite hard on the Russian economy,so this situation isn’t going to improve for them.

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        that's why i don't understand all of the talks of new offensive. Russia has lost massive numbers of armored vehicles. They didn't have endless stockpiles of modern vehicles and their ancient stockpiles are a lot smaller than was expected in terms of actually functional vehicles. In order to mount an offensive you need armored vehicles, light vehicles can work against a broken enemy like we saw in Kharkiv but without armored vehicles offensives against entrenched positions are limited to WW1 stormtrooper tactics which will end up with hugely disproportionate casualties in favor of defenders.

        Any Russian offensive under these conditions is likely to end in massive losses and modest territorial gains, which could be erased quickly by counteroffensives.

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          I think a lot of the talks of a big new offensive is wishful thinking on the part of the Vatnik Shill Squad.
          I haven’t seen anything about it from official Russian sources.

          And lets face it…after their humiliation at Kherson and earlier at Izyium and Kharkiv, the Russians aren’t looking too good. Add that they took six months to capture about 5 klicks of Donbas turf at Bakhmut, and that should dispel any notions they might have about going on any offensive…they can barely manage a defensive posture.

          I suspect that Bakhmut is important for political reasons…it’s Donbas clay, and therefore by the Kremlin’s line since last year, formal Russian soil.

          Past wars have stacked more corpses for even dumber reasons, (see Stalingrad).

          To be honest, I think the only thing keeping them from getting BTFOd in the center or the south is Kyiv’s need to keep a sizable force watching Belarus border.

          If the Ukies commit their reserve down south or in the center, that’s when Pussolini puts the screws to Luka to make something happen up there, or brings what he’s got to launch toward western Ukraine.
          Fuck Kyiv, losing it would be bad, but if the Ukies lose western Ukraine, they’re done. They know it and Moscow knows it.

          I don’t wonder that the Transnistria isn’t some kind of hostage to check Pussolini from making that move. Transnistria has shit military value, but it has a pro-Russia population that if the turf is taken can be turned into refugees trying to “boat people” across the Black Sea…bad optics for the Kremlin.

          If I were a commander at Odessa, I’d have my Territorial Defense forces go and take the place anyway…fuck the Kremlin…and build refugee camps for those Russkis right within the circle of impact error of my vulnerable infrastructure…go ahead and launch your missiles, Vlad!

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Not in any regards to their condition/crew competence, but I have full faith Russia still has at least the same number of vehicles they initially committed to the war, even if they're tanks/trucks from the 50s. I'm sure they'll try and attack again this spring, and I'm also sure it'll be as disastrous as the initial invasion, what happens afterwards is anyone's guess.

          • 2 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            I think putin is still mulling over whether or not he’s going to go through with the offensive. I think you are right that they still have more resources at their disposal but this is likely whatever they have left…

  7. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >Why are ziggers so obsessed with this town? It's not even a major crossroad.
    It's the gateway that makes seversk untenable for UA to hold and which opens to door to assaulting the next major axis of defense running north to south

  8. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Because they know how to attack Bakhmut, have supply routes established there and such. Attacking anywhere else would require a new plan and other works.

  9. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    What do you mean? Russian war goals have been very consistent and logical throughout this conflict.
    >pic related

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I send him to the hotel because there is room and he needs a rest.

  10. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    On a surface level, Putin said ZSU/Wagner must take Donbass, and Bakhmut is one it's key towns, though by no means the most important, that's Kramatorsk. But taking it is a precondition to even ponder assaulting Kramatorsk. Of course with Izyum lost, it's questionable if they can even hope to try it, but there's not much else for them to do.

    At one point, the very fact that so much fight went on in such a place and so many troops are drawn in makes it important, moreso than what a generic overview would suggest. Because of propaganda value and numbers. You could dig up countless such literal where places from WW1 which had questionable value but the tide of war made it important focal point, then in the end we are left arguing if oneside losing 100k less man constitutes a victory or not.

    I see it as a mix of sunk cost fallacy, lack of other options for the Russian, along with some actual strategic value sure, but about as much as Severodonetsk had, which everyone talekd about here in June, but no one cares since.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Almost impossible given the terrain really, and that they lost Lyman too.

  11. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    That's where the Ukies stash their CP. Largest stockpile of cheesy pizza in the world.

  12. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The Donbass is the only part of the front, not in Russia itself, where the Russians have the infrastructure to constantly apply pressure.

  13. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    It's the same shit they did with the Getmans at Kursk. They're only fighting because the other guy is there.

  14. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >NOBODY can answer what is so important about this tiny town

    Highground, fortress town, Strategic logistics point in Donbas. You don´t need a high IQ to understand that points.

    >Russia is willing to sacrifice tens or thousands of men for.

    Ukraine is willing to sacrifice ten times more trops than Russia to defend that Town for a reason.

    Also, keep crying koper. (it was never important is literally the final cope), it´over.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      You also don't need a high IQ to understand NATO symbology, yet here you are.

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        it's keev anon. at this point he has to know what the map means but keeps posting it since he thinks he's triggering other people.

        remember the "piss off the leftie sjws" phase of the mid 2010s, the type of shit ben shapiro would do? yeah. that's what he thinks he's doing.

        t. was on 4chan at that time

  15. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The highway it controls is important for logistics to assault the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk line which is important for assaulting northeast Ukraine ever since the Gesture of Goodwill that happened in Kharkiv last summer

  16. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    It used to have some strategic value as a logistics hub.
    Used to.

    Now that Russia no longer controls Iziyum it's useless.
    But Russia wants a victory. ANY victory so they hope to raise morale and maybe bring Ukraine to the table to get Ukraine to at least agree with what Russia currently holds.

    Russia is desperate to end the war. If they end the war now they can end it with additional territory. But Russia knows that the longer the war goes on the more territory they'll lose and that they can't really conquer any greater landmasses anymore.

    "Wars start when you want them to, but never end when you do". Russia has become painfully aware of this and is hoping that any token victory will bring an end to the war to their terms closer.

  17. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    They're convinced that Ukraine is taking even worse losses than they are. It's hard to know for sure whether they're right as a shitposter with little access to real intel, but it seems unlikely to me.

    A strong bit of evidence would be a major collapse caused by the attrition soon - if that doesn't happen, then it'll be very likely they were grinding for nothing because they had faulty information about Ukraines attrition rate.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Its not hard to know that they're wrong.
      >russian forces at bakhmut outnumber the ukies more than 5 to 1
      >Russians are forbidden from retreating under pain of death
      >Russians have been continuously attacking Bahkmut for seven months
      >Russia has not captured Bakhmut
      You can probably see where I'm going with this

      Biolabs my bro ruskies are stopping the next pandemic

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        It's because Prigozhin already promised Bakhmut to the Russian government and his PMC is being made to look like parasites. The man is going to get bashed over the head with the sledgehammer he engraved Bakhmut into if he doesn't deliver results.

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >It's because Prigozhin already promised Bakhmut to the Russian government and his PMC is being made to look like parasites. The man is going to get bashed over the head with the sledgehammer he engraved Bakhmut into if he doesn't deliver results.
          lmfao, the ukraine is in full route, retreeeeeating and regroooooouping across the entire front

          Wagner did a fucking parkour flip bashing some retard hohols he showed mercy to
          the soledar sommersault was the final nail in the ukraines 'offensive' capabilities

          its retreat back to keev now, and basically, there is nothing they can do about it anymore. its over.

          • 2 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            are we gonna be shitting in bags soon?

          • 2 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            just three more days

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      its a modern day sisyphus tale.I dont think they know what they fighting and dying for anymore.every inch they take will just increase the amount of western weapon systems etc that will eventually drive them back.

  18. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Biolabs my bro ruskies are stopping the next pandemic

  19. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    If I was Biden, I’d also be flooding Ukraine with our old M60 tanks from storage up in Mojave Desert.

    Let’s face it, as things stand now, a 40 year old M60 would still swing respectable dick in that AO against 40 year old T-62s and T64s…especially if there was a lot of them.

    Don’t worry about “muh maintenance”…this is a war…nobody is too concerned about maintaining shit right now. Does it shoot? Does it move? Is it armored?
    Fine…get it up and get it on.

  20. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >The Bakhmut axis is being spun to western audiences as a perfect synthesis of all the tropes of Russian failure: in a nutshell, Russia is suffering horrible casualties as it struggles to capture a small town with negligible operational importance. British officials, in particular, have been highly vocal in recent weeks insisting that Bakhmut has little to no operational value.

    >The truth is the literal opposite of this story: Bakhmut is an operationally critical keystone position in the Ukrainian defense, and Russia has transformed it into a death pit which compels the Ukrainians to sacrifice exorbitant numbers of men in order to hold the position as long as possible. In fact, the insistence that Bakhmut is not operationally significant is mildly insulting to the audience, both because a quick glance at a map clearly shows it at the heart of the regional road network, and because Ukraine has thrown a huge number of units into the front there.

    >Let’s take a step back and consider Bakhmut in the context of Ukraine’s overall position in the east. Ukraine began the war with four operable defensive lines in the Donbas, built up over the last 8 years both as part and parcel of the simmering war with the LNR and DNR, but also in preparation for potential war with Russia. These lines are structured around urban agglomerations with road and rail links between each other, and can be roughly enumerated as follows:

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      https://i.imgur.com/hSkeH3C.jpg

      >The Donbas is a particularly accommodating place to construct formidable defenses. It is highly urbanized and industrial (Donetsk was the most urban oblast in Ukraine prior to 2014, with over 90% of the population living in urban areas), with cities and towns dominated by the typically robust Soviet buildings, along with prolific industrial complexes. Ukraine has spent much of the last decade improving these positions, and the frontline settlements are riddled with trenches and firing positions that are clearly visible on satellite imagery. A recent video from the Avdiivka axis demonstrates the extent of Ukrainian fortifications.

      >So, let’s review the state of these defensive belts. The first belt, which ran roughly from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to Popasna, was broken in the summer by Russian forces. Russia achieved a major breakthrough at Popasna and was able to begin the full rollup of this line, with Lysychansk falling at the beginning of July.

      >At this point, the frontline sits directly on what I have labeled as the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian defensive belts, and both of these belts are now heavily bleeding.

      >The capture of Soledar by Wagner forces has severed the connection between Bakhmut and Siversk, while around Donetsk, the heavily fortified suburb of Marinka has been almost completely cleared of Ukrainian troops, and the infamous keystone Ukrainian position in Avdiivka (the place from which they shell Donetsk city’s civilian population) is being flanked from both directions.

      >These positions are absolutely critical for Ukraine to hold. The loss of Bakhmut will mean the collapse of the last defensive line standing in the way of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, which means Ukraine’s eastern position will rapidly contract to its fourth (and weakest) defensive belt.

      https://i.imgur.com/pmqqeCD.jpg

      >The Slavyansk agglomeration is a far worse position for Ukraine to defend than the other belts, for several reasons. First and foremost, as the belt farthest to the west (and thus the farthest from the February 2022 start lines), it is the least improved and least fortified of the belts. Secondly, lots of the, shall we just say “good stuff” around Slavyansk is to the east of the city, including both the dominating high ground and the major highways.

      >All this to say, Ukraine has been very anxious to hold the Bakhmut line, as this is a vastly preferable position to hold, and accordingly they have been pouring units into the sector. The absurd levels of Ukrainian force commitment in this area have been well noted, but just as a quick refresher, publicly available Ukrainian sources locate at least 34 brigade or equivalent units that have been deployed in the Bakhmut area. Many of these were deployed months ago and are already shattered, but over the full span of the ongoing battle this represents an astonishing commitment.

      >Russian forces, primarily Wagner PMC and LNR units, have been slowly but surely collapsing this Ukrainian stronghold by making liberal use of artillery. In November, now former Zelensky advisor Oleksiy Arestovych admitted that Russian artillery on the Bakhmut axis enjoyed roughly a 9 to 1 tube advantage, which is turning Bakhmut into a death pit.

      >The battle is being presented in the west as one where Russians - usually stereotyped as convict soldiers employed by Wagner - launch frontal assaults on Ukrainian defenses and take horrible casualties attempting to overwhelm the defense with pure numbers. The opposite is much closer to the truth. Russia is moving slowly because it irons out Ukrainian defenses with artillery, then pushes forward cautiously into these pulverized defenses.

      I just took a look because I know there are major roads in Bakhmut and you know what I found?
      The H20 running through Kramatorsk 20km to the east.
      While the loss of Bakhmut won't be good for Ukraine it isn't like Russia is going to gain a huge advantage from it. Ukraine will have to cover the last 20km of their supply lines on secondary roads.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      https://i.imgur.com/hSkeH3C.jpg

      >The Donbas is a particularly accommodating place to construct formidable defenses. It is highly urbanized and industrial (Donetsk was the most urban oblast in Ukraine prior to 2014, with over 90% of the population living in urban areas), with cities and towns dominated by the typically robust Soviet buildings, along with prolific industrial complexes. Ukraine has spent much of the last decade improving these positions, and the frontline settlements are riddled with trenches and firing positions that are clearly visible on satellite imagery. A recent video from the Avdiivka axis demonstrates the extent of Ukrainian fortifications.

      >So, let’s review the state of these defensive belts. The first belt, which ran roughly from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to Popasna, was broken in the summer by Russian forces. Russia achieved a major breakthrough at Popasna and was able to begin the full rollup of this line, with Lysychansk falling at the beginning of July.

      >At this point, the frontline sits directly on what I have labeled as the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian defensive belts, and both of these belts are now heavily bleeding.

      >The capture of Soledar by Wagner forces has severed the connection between Bakhmut and Siversk, while around Donetsk, the heavily fortified suburb of Marinka has been almost completely cleared of Ukrainian troops, and the infamous keystone Ukrainian position in Avdiivka (the place from which they shell Donetsk city’s civilian population) is being flanked from both directions.

      >These positions are absolutely critical for Ukraine to hold. The loss of Bakhmut will mean the collapse of the last defensive line standing in the way of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, which means Ukraine’s eastern position will rapidly contract to its fourth (and weakest) defensive belt.

      https://i.imgur.com/pmqqeCD.jpg

      >The Slavyansk agglomeration is a far worse position for Ukraine to defend than the other belts, for several reasons. First and foremost, as the belt farthest to the west (and thus the farthest from the February 2022 start lines), it is the least improved and least fortified of the belts. Secondly, lots of the, shall we just say “good stuff” around Slavyansk is to the east of the city, including both the dominating high ground and the major highways.

      >All this to say, Ukraine has been very anxious to hold the Bakhmut line, as this is a vastly preferable position to hold, and accordingly they have been pouring units into the sector. The absurd levels of Ukrainian force commitment in this area have been well noted, but just as a quick refresher, publicly available Ukrainian sources locate at least 34 brigade or equivalent units that have been deployed in the Bakhmut area. Many of these were deployed months ago and are already shattered, but over the full span of the ongoing battle this represents an astonishing commitment.

      >Russian forces, primarily Wagner PMC and LNR units, have been slowly but surely collapsing this Ukrainian stronghold by making liberal use of artillery. In November, now former Zelensky advisor Oleksiy Arestovych admitted that Russian artillery on the Bakhmut axis enjoyed roughly a 9 to 1 tube advantage, which is turning Bakhmut into a death pit.

      >The battle is being presented in the west as one where Russians - usually stereotyped as convict soldiers employed by Wagner - launch frontal assaults on Ukrainian defenses and take horrible casualties attempting to overwhelm the defense with pure numbers. The opposite is much closer to the truth. Russia is moving slowly because it irons out Ukrainian defenses with artillery, then pushes forward cautiously into these pulverized defenses.

      https://i.imgur.com/KaasUcu.png

      >Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to funnel units in to more or less refill the trenches with fresh defenders. A Wall Street Journal piece about the battle, while trying to present a story of Russian incompetence, accidentally included an admission from a Ukrainian commander on the ground who said: “So far, the exchange rate of trading our lives for theirs favors the Russians. If this goes on like this, we could run out.”

      >The comparisons have been liberally made (and I cannot take credit for them) to one of the most infamous battles of World War One - the bloody catastrophe at Verdun. While it does not do to exaggerate the predictive value of military history (in the sense that a thorough knowledge of the first world war does not allow one to predict events in Ukraine), I am, however, a great fan of history as analogy, and the German scheme at Verdun is a useful analogy for what’s happening in Bakhmut.

      >The Battle of Verdun was conceived by the German high command as a way to cripple the French army by drawing them into a preconfigured meatgrinder. Something similar has indeed occurred in Bakhmut, in the sense that Russia is pressing on one of the most sensitive points on the front line, drawing Ukrainian units in to be killed. A few months ago, on the heels of Russia’s withdrawal from west bank Kherson, the Ukrainians talked ecstatically of continuing their offensive efforts with a strike southward in Zaparozhia to cut the land bridge to Crimea, along with continued efforts to break through into northern Lugansk. Instead, forces from both of these axes have been redirected to Bakhmut, to the point where this axis is actively draining Ukrainian combat strength in other areas. Ukrainian sources, previously full of optimism, now unequivocally agree that there will be no Ukrainian offensives in the near future. As we speak, Ukraine continues to funnel forces into the Bakhmut axis.

      https://i.imgur.com/QYSPn4j.jpg

      >At the present moment, Ukraine’s position around Bakhmut has badly deteriorated, with Russian forces (largely Wagner infantry supported by Russian army artillery) making substantial progress on both of the city’s flanks. On the northern flank, the capture of Soledar pushed Russian lines to within spitting distance of the north-south highways, while the near simultaneous capture of Klishchiivka on the southern flank has propelled the frontlines to the dootstep of Chasiv Yar (firmly in Bakhmut’s operational rear).

      >The Ukrainians are not presently encircled, but the continued creep of Russian positions ever closer to the remaining highways is easily discernable. Currently, Russian forces have positions within two miles of all the remaining highways. Even more importantly, Russia now controls the high ground to both the north and south of Bakhmut (the city itself sits in a depression surrounded by hills) giving Russia fire control over much of the battle space.

      >At the moment, the front roughly consists of four main axes (the plural of axis, not the bladed implement), with substantial agglomerations of Ukrainian troops. These consist, from south to north, of the Zaporozhia, Donetsk, Bakhmut, and Svatove Axes (see map below). The effort to reinforce the Bakhmut sector has noticeably diluted Ukranian strength on these other sectors. On the Zaporozhia front, for example, there are potentially as few as five Ukrainian brigades on the line at the moment.

      >At the moment, the majority of Russian combat power is uncommitted, and both western and Ukrainian sources are (belatedly) becoming increasingly alarmed about the prospect for a Russian offensive in the coming weeks. Currently, the entire Ukrainian position in the east is vulnerable because it is, in effect, an enormous salient, vulnerable to attack from three directions

      Holy fucking cope.
      We are literally seeing the russian army unravel on itself and become essentially a mob with a some WW2 artillery on its rear line, and this motherfucker here is trying to pretend its is still July 2022 and that the russians will encircle everything east of the Dnieper.

      • 2 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        It's because they've failed so many times in the last 6 months that they HAVE to convince themselves this is the point where they turn it around. Problem is, we've seen this exact scenario before with other towns and cities before the fall of kherson and kharkiv out of their hands of the russians, but this time, they don't have the equipment to sustain it.

        • 2 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Fun part is that Severodonetsk saw them get a much, much more meaningful success within a far shorter period of time. And that bought them about 1 week of momentum before they once again screeched to a halt, and was immediately followed up with Kharkiv, Izium, Lyman, Kupiansk and Kherson.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >which compels the Ukrainians to sacrifice exorbitant numbers of men
      May I see it?

  21. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >The Donbas is a particularly accommodating place to construct formidable defenses. It is highly urbanized and industrial (Donetsk was the most urban oblast in Ukraine prior to 2014, with over 90% of the population living in urban areas), with cities and towns dominated by the typically robust Soviet buildings, along with prolific industrial complexes. Ukraine has spent much of the last decade improving these positions, and the frontline settlements are riddled with trenches and firing positions that are clearly visible on satellite imagery. A recent video from the Avdiivka axis demonstrates the extent of Ukrainian fortifications.

    >So, let’s review the state of these defensive belts. The first belt, which ran roughly from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to Popasna, was broken in the summer by Russian forces. Russia achieved a major breakthrough at Popasna and was able to begin the full rollup of this line, with Lysychansk falling at the beginning of July.

    >At this point, the frontline sits directly on what I have labeled as the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian defensive belts, and both of these belts are now heavily bleeding.

    >The capture of Soledar by Wagner forces has severed the connection between Bakhmut and Siversk, while around Donetsk, the heavily fortified suburb of Marinka has been almost completely cleared of Ukrainian troops, and the infamous keystone Ukrainian position in Avdiivka (the place from which they shell Donetsk city’s civilian population) is being flanked from both directions.

    >These positions are absolutely critical for Ukraine to hold. The loss of Bakhmut will mean the collapse of the last defensive line standing in the way of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, which means Ukraine’s eastern position will rapidly contract to its fourth (and weakest) defensive belt.

  22. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >The Slavyansk agglomeration is a far worse position for Ukraine to defend than the other belts, for several reasons. First and foremost, as the belt farthest to the west (and thus the farthest from the February 2022 start lines), it is the least improved and least fortified of the belts. Secondly, lots of the, shall we just say “good stuff” around Slavyansk is to the east of the city, including both the dominating high ground and the major highways.

    >All this to say, Ukraine has been very anxious to hold the Bakhmut line, as this is a vastly preferable position to hold, and accordingly they have been pouring units into the sector. The absurd levels of Ukrainian force commitment in this area have been well noted, but just as a quick refresher, publicly available Ukrainian sources locate at least 34 brigade or equivalent units that have been deployed in the Bakhmut area. Many of these were deployed months ago and are already shattered, but over the full span of the ongoing battle this represents an astonishing commitment.

    >Russian forces, primarily Wagner PMC and LNR units, have been slowly but surely collapsing this Ukrainian stronghold by making liberal use of artillery. In November, now former Zelensky advisor Oleksiy Arestovych admitted that Russian artillery on the Bakhmut axis enjoyed roughly a 9 to 1 tube advantage, which is turning Bakhmut into a death pit.

    >The battle is being presented in the west as one where Russians - usually stereotyped as convict soldiers employed by Wagner - launch frontal assaults on Ukrainian defenses and take horrible casualties attempting to overwhelm the defense with pure numbers. The opposite is much closer to the truth. Russia is moving slowly because it irons out Ukrainian defenses with artillery, then pushes forward cautiously into these pulverized defenses.

  23. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to funnel units in to more or less refill the trenches with fresh defenders. A Wall Street Journal piece about the battle, while trying to present a story of Russian incompetence, accidentally included an admission from a Ukrainian commander on the ground who said: “So far, the exchange rate of trading our lives for theirs favors the Russians. If this goes on like this, we could run out.”

    >The comparisons have been liberally made (and I cannot take credit for them) to one of the most infamous battles of World War One - the bloody catastrophe at Verdun. While it does not do to exaggerate the predictive value of military history (in the sense that a thorough knowledge of the first world war does not allow one to predict events in Ukraine), I am, however, a great fan of history as analogy, and the German scheme at Verdun is a useful analogy for what’s happening in Bakhmut.

    >The Battle of Verdun was conceived by the German high command as a way to cripple the French army by drawing them into a preconfigured meatgrinder. Something similar has indeed occurred in Bakhmut, in the sense that Russia is pressing on one of the most sensitive points on the front line, drawing Ukrainian units in to be killed. A few months ago, on the heels of Russia’s withdrawal from west bank Kherson, the Ukrainians talked ecstatically of continuing their offensive efforts with a strike southward in Zaparozhia to cut the land bridge to Crimea, along with continued efforts to break through into northern Lugansk. Instead, forces from both of these axes have been redirected to Bakhmut, to the point where this axis is actively draining Ukrainian combat strength in other areas. Ukrainian sources, previously full of optimism, now unequivocally agree that there will be no Ukrainian offensives in the near future. As we speak, Ukraine continues to funnel forces into the Bakhmut axis.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Source?

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Verdun revisited, huh?

      Okay.

      So what eventually happened at Verdun?
      The Krauts found out that their meat grinder they had panned for the Frogs was just as effective at grinding Kraut meat…especially since the grunts were told hat their objective was to take the town, when that really wasn’t Falkenhayn’s objective at all.

      And after a certain amount of Kraut meat had been ground, the Krauts gave up and the Frogs didn’t.

      All the rest…rotating freshforces in to hold the nine where the enemy is attacking strongest is normal SOP…and yes, everyone knows the Vatniks love them their artillery.

      But here’s the thing about artillery…it’s not as effective against entrenchments as you might think.

      Let’s go back to WW1 again. Any number of battles fought anywhere on the Western Front. The Kraut defenders suffered horrific bombardments, some lasting for days,but still managed to hold their lines…because you cannot bombard the same trench at the same time you’re sending your infantry in to take the trench.

      It’s not FUN but as long as you’re dug in good and deep and you’re a bit lucky, someone’s gonna scamper out and get to the edge of the trench with a machine gun…and that’s Very Bad News for the attacking grunts.

    • 2 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Source?

      He doesn't say it's Big Serge, because otherwise people would know it's bullshit.

  24. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >At the present moment, Ukraine’s position around Bakhmut has badly deteriorated, with Russian forces (largely Wagner infantry supported by Russian army artillery) making substantial progress on both of the city’s flanks. On the northern flank, the capture of Soledar pushed Russian lines to within spitting distance of the north-south highways, while the near simultaneous capture of Klishchiivka on the southern flank has propelled the frontlines to the dootstep of Chasiv Yar (firmly in Bakhmut’s operational rear).

    >The Ukrainians are not presently encircled, but the continued creep of Russian positions ever closer to the remaining highways is easily discernable. Currently, Russian forces have positions within two miles of all the remaining highways. Even more importantly, Russia now controls the high ground to both the north and south of Bakhmut (the city itself sits in a depression surrounded by hills) giving Russia fire control over much of the battle space.

    >At the moment, the front roughly consists of four main axes (the plural of axis, not the bladed implement), with substantial agglomerations of Ukrainian troops. These consist, from south to north, of the Zaporozhia, Donetsk, Bakhmut, and Svatove Axes (see map below). The effort to reinforce the Bakhmut sector has noticeably diluted Ukranian strength on these other sectors. On the Zaporozhia front, for example, there are potentially as few as five Ukrainian brigades on the line at the moment.

    >At the moment, the majority of Russian combat power is uncommitted, and both western and Ukrainian sources are (belatedly) becoming increasingly alarmed about the prospect for a Russian offensive in the coming weeks. Currently, the entire Ukrainian position in the east is vulnerable because it is, in effect, an enormous salient, vulnerable to attack from three directions

  25. 2 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >Two operational depth objectives in particular have the potential to shatter Ukrainian logistics and sustainment. These are, respectively, Izyum in the north and Pavlograd in the South. A Russian thrust down the west bank of the Oskil river towards Izyum would simultaneously threaten to cut off and destroy the Ukrainian grouping on the Svatove axis (S on the map) and sever the vital M03 highway from Kharkov. Reaching Pavlograd, on the other hand, would completely isolate the Ukrainian forces around Donetsk and sever much of Ukraine’s transit across the Dneiper.

    >Both Izyum and Pavlograd are roughly 70 miles from the start lines of a prospective Russian offensive, and thus offer a very tempting combination - being both operationally significant and in relatively manageable reach. Beginning yesterday, we started to see Russian advances on the Zaporozhia axis. While these consist, at the moment, mainly of reconnaissance in force pushing into the “grey zone” (that ambiguous interstitial frontage), RUMoD did claim several settlements taken, which could presage a genuine offensive push in this direction. The key tell would be a Russian assault on Orikhiv, which is a large town with a genuine Ukrainian garrison in it. A Russian attack here would indicate that something more than a probing attack is underway.
    https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-world-blood

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