an evaluation of a potential military conflict between kyrgyzstan and tajikistan, and the weapons that both sides wield.

an evaluation of a potential military conflict between kyrgyzstan and tajikistan, and the weapons that both sides wield.

tajikistan has 9,500 active personnel, no reserves and a military budget of 79 million per year, while kyrgyzstan has 23,000 active personnel, 50,500 reserve personnel and a military budget of 240 million.
tajikistan's equipment is all of soviet make, generally from the 1950s and 1960s, with a small handful of 1970s and 1980s gear. their tank force consists almost entirely of 40-ish unmodernized T-62s, their primary infantry fighting vehicle is the unmodernized BMP-1, and all of their artillery is from 1964 or earlier, with their mortars being PM-38 soviet mortars from WW2.
kyrgyzstan's equipment is a mix of soviet, russian federation, and to a lesser extent, american and chinese. most of their equipment is from the 1970s 1980s and 2000s, their tank force consists almost entirely of 215 T-72s, their primary infantry fighting vehicles are modernized BMP-1s and Tigrs, and their artillery is similarly outdated to tajikistan, though it should be noted that they have more than three times as many howitzers, that they have field guns while tajikistan does not, that they have anti-aircraft guns while tajikistan does not, and that they have anti-tank missiles while tajikistan does not.
it should also be noted that tajikistan lacks any kind of LUV/MRAP, while kyrgyzstan operates 50 humvees and 65 dongfeng EQ2050s.

overall, both countries have terrible militaries, plagued by outdated hardware, corruption and poor training. however, kyrgyzstan has a far larger, better equipped, more versatile and better prepared military, and should this little border conflict escalate into a serious war, it would be very difficult for tajikistan to overcome this. with all this in mind, tajikistan's aggressive moves against kyrgyzstan along the border are hard to explain, but it will be interesting to see these ancient weapons systems in action.

  1. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    bishkek

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      that alone is reason enough to root for kyrgyzstan

  2. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Tajikistan has little man syndrome. Perhaps their leadership thinks that acting first with the element of surprise will discourage their inevitable domination by Kyrgyzstan. The new geopolitical realities that are becoming apparent with the absolute destruction of Russia as the de facto regional hegemon are going to result in all kinds of shit like this in Central Asia. I suspect that the entire region is going to fall into sectarian chaos like the Levant did during the Arab spring. The wide availability of arms leftover from the hasty Afghanistan withdrawal seems like an intentional act at this point.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      This region isn't sectarian, but you might mean communal. Ethnic violence between Kyrgyz-Tajiks-Uzbeks have been going on for a long time in Central Asia. Minorities associated with one nationality face discrimination in countries dominated by the other, and sometimes that becomes ethnic riots, especially in Kyrgyzstan where they may attack Uzbeks and Tajik alike. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the two poorest countries in Central Asia, because they have no resources, are mountainous, and have water rights issues as well.

      Afghanistan's weapons are irrelevant in Central Asia. The Taliban isn't giving them any weapons, nor are they going to waste any of the good stuff trying to intervene in Tajikistan for their own ends. If either country wanted weapons they'll turn to Turkey, Iran or elsewhere.

      Personally, I don't want to see violence between either of the two country's people, although I'd like to see Tajikistan's LEADER being kicked out specifically. He's a nutjob who came into power through the Civil War in the 1990s and was supposed to be democratic but repressed all his opposition thereafter. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan hosts Russian bases, but Tajikistan hosts Russian, Chinese and Indian bases.

      You’re forgetting that 1/3 of Afghanistan is ethnically Tajik. The taliban has no power unless they simp for Tajiks. All those arms from Afghanistan will flow to Tajik fighters and tones of ethnic Afghan Tajiks will fight for their ethnic brothers in Tajikistan. The Kyrgyzs might get some help from Kazakhs. The chinks will spectate since they dont want to be against the Taliban.

      Aren't the Tajiks in Afghanistan who are the ones resisting the Taliban the most and using Tajikistan as a base against them?

      Outside of some NRF type retards, I don't see any general population giving much of a fuck about Tajikistan's personal politics.

  3. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Turkestan when

  4. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Whogivesafuckistan

  5. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    How much escalation do you think it will take for China to step in and enforce a cease fire? I can't imagine they are pleased with the current fractious state of the CSTO and the member states on the Chinese border. I wonder how lightly defended the mountain borders are, given that China would not expect much hostility from that direction. Or at least I would not expect them to expect hostility from West Asia.

  6. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    This is all fine on paper but as the conflict in Ukraine has shown, equipment on paper doesn’t mean much. If the Tajiks have the initiative, the Kyrgs will drop their weapons and flee.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      considering it's the tajiks one the offensive, i find it hard to believe that kyrgyzstan would be the one to give up. tajikistan, a country with practically no air force, is attempting to invade a mountainous country that possesses three times as much artillery as itself.
      that alone paints a very bleak picture for tajikistan's chances

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >but as the conflict in Ukraine has shown, equipment on paper doesn’t mean much
      Wtf does this mean? Ukraine had the largest tank force in Europe along with an army that had been fighting since 2014 trained by the UK and US, all supported US sat and air Intel.

      So tired of this gay narrative that Ukraine beat back the Russians with just AKs and le underdog energy

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Delusional

  7. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    You’re forgetting that 1/3 of Afghanistan is ethnically Tajik. The taliban has no power unless they simp for Tajiks. All those arms from Afghanistan will flow to Tajik fighters and tones of ethnic Afghan Tajiks will fight for their ethnic brothers in Tajikistan. The Kyrgyzs might get some help from Kazakhs. The chinks will spectate since they dont want to be against the Taliban.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Aren't the Tajiks in Afghanistan who are the ones resisting the Taliban the most and using Tajikistan as a base against them?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Aren't the Tajiks in Afghanistan who are the ones resisting the Taliban the most and using Tajikistan as a base against them?

      Yes the Northern Alliance are mostly Tajiks

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Not as bad looking flag as far as tricolors go.

  8. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The fact that countries this shitty and irrelevant exist annoys me.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      wait till this guy finds out about africa

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        And Oceania...

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          god, yeah. all those shitty countries with no land or resources, populations in the tens of thousands and GDPs under 1 billion USD. imagine a free for all
          imagine a war between tuvalu and nauru

  9. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    nice fucking border lel
    they never had a chance for peace

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >muslims
      >communists
      >dominated by russians for centuries
      They never had a chance for anything but failure

  10. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Let them bleed each other sry
    It would be pretty kino old style conflict with not much technology involved

  11. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >both sides think they're the ukraine underdog that will brutally mog the other to worldwide acclaim
    >in reality we get a 2am afterhours alleyway brawl between 2 hobo ex-soviet republics that have spent the last 30 years marinating in bottom shelf vodka and depression

    let's fucking gooo

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      It's more like they (and Azerbaijan) realize Russia is now suddenly weak and can no longer intervene in their affairs and so they are out to settle all the disputes created by these Soviet era borders.

  12. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Are those the least relevant countries on earth?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I think those microstates in the pacific ocean are less relevant. Central Asia is also kind of important.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      no, sub-saharan africa and oceania have much less relevant countries. say what you want about kyrgyzstan and tajikistan, they both have millions of people, militaries with thousands of active personnel, functioning (in the sense that they are capable of extracting taxes, building roads, engaging in diplomacy, etc.) governments, GDPs in the billions and decent amounts of natural resources. that at least puts them in the realm of "real countries", which is more than i can say for ones like tuvalu or sao tome and principe

  13. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Who should I root for?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      No one, to see war in terms of good guy vs bad guy is childish

  14. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >Collective
    >Security
    >Treaty
    >Organization

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >The collective security treaty organization: in which each member state looks out for itself and itself alone; in which the security of each state is in perpetual jeopardy of invasion by other members; whose members break more treaties than they write; whose members are the epitome of corruption and political disorder.
      It's even got fucked up HRE-tier borders

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      From an interview with Armenia's Parliamentary Speaker.

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