Not entirely, if the war lasts another 2-3 years Ukraines economy might actually finally give in, but i dont know if the Russians have the stomach or the will for it, plus if NATO slowly ramps up by sending more modern equipment they will be squeezed out anyway.
It still remains to be seen how both sides play it out.
It's not a static thing, running out. They have some parts they can manufacture, those they're manufacturing. There are other components that have been made scarce by sanctions, that's the limiting factor. They are getting these through a combination of picking over multiple nonfunctional missiles to make one that works and smuggling parts in subversion of sanctions when they can. That takes time.
Pre war production of cruise missiles was about 225 per year give or take,i am going to be generous and say that they will probably be able to produce 5 times that with semi-war econony thats still just 1100misiles.
Enough for 11 barages per year, and with more ad systmes coming in Ukraine already, the less than ideal succes rate may be lowered even further.
So yeah, not the best option to base your doctrine on cruise missiles and ww1 style infantry rushes, you need alot inbetween.
Eventually they will straight up run out of surplus missiles that have useful high tech components. If they don't work something out then that might actually be the end of large scale missile attacks. They'll struggle to put together five at once.
>generous and say that they will probably be able to produce 5 times that with semi-war econony thats still just 1100misiles.
Ukraine estimates put current new production of Russian cruise missiles at 50-60 per month, And war economy or not I don't see that exactly doubling, and I don't see Ukrainians underestimating their volumes either. Does them no good to underplay a threat, ever.
If anything, they could be lying and overestimating.
Guess they run out and are producing a slow trickle that they're stocking up for another big strike.
Or maybe the think that building missiles is no longer worth it with all the new western anti-missile tech in Ukraine now.
The only good will gesture Russia could do that would actually be accepted is pulling out of Ukraine. At this point there's nothing else that would be accepted as "good will". Because regardless of where you are on the fence of Russia winning or losing, Russia is at the very least losing a lot more than Ukraine in terms of equipment, men & the #1 most important item: reputation. If Ukraine was losing more equipment & men than Russia, then Russia would be gaining a lot more ground.
Acumulating for Keef feint v2.0 that'll come when current mogilisation wave is ready.
I wonder how many can Russia practically launch on one wave. Regardless of availible count, how many launch vehicles they have and how many they can store for one barrage.
https://tass.com/politics/1561153
Gerasimov is now in charge of all forces in Ukraine. Armageddon got demoted to commanding the aerospace force which is a joke position since the Russian air force has barely been active in recent months and the strategic bombers were relocated to the Far East.
>"Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has been appointed as commander of the integrated group of troops (forces). His deputies are: Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces Army General Sergey Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces Army General Oleg Salyukov, and also Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Colonel-General Alexey Kim," the ministry said.
Who told you that Gerasimov was demoted, moron? He keeps his old position AND gets to command all forces directly. Surovikin is now a nobody deputy. Might as well be a bell boy.
Because it failed. Ukraine (rightfully so) just repaired those stations again.
That fricking moron General Armageddon thought it would work because it worked in fricking Syria, who no one helped and barely had spare infrastructure parts to begin with. Instead, the whole of EU, NATO + others jumped in to help with generators to relieve pressure from the grid and most importantly, with transformers and other substation spare parts, including foreign engineers (some Italians and japanese). That, coupled with some of the most advanced AD systems being shipped to Ukraine, resulted in an extremely high down rate for both cruise missiles and drones, meaning Russia would have to throw hundreds of millions worth of missiles each wave to hit 1-2 targets in the end. Guess what happened after 10-20 waves? They ran out. That's why the general was demoted, not because of some beef with wagner over a village lol.
All indications are that upper command in Russia is fighting for control in a war that's spiraling out of control.
The 2 week timeline lines up with the army units preparing for an offensive along a different axis. It's reasonable to assume that military district intra-fighting resulted in Gerasimov having to assert his authority directly by being assigned to theatre. The decision was then formalized with the Armageddon demotion as an example to make other units in theatre fall in line.
Why do you think they demoted "general armakekdon"? They found out just how many missiles he wasted with 0 result. Missile strikes on civilian infrastructure are not coming back.
OPs false narrative deconstructed, so he leaves the thread.
As
Because it failed. Ukraine (rightfully so) just repaired those stations again.
That fricking moron General Armageddon thought it would work because it worked in fricking Syria, who no one helped and barely had spare infrastructure parts to begin with. Instead, the whole of EU, NATO + others jumped in to help with generators to relieve pressure from the grid and most importantly, with transformers and other substation spare parts, including foreign engineers (some Italians and japanese). That, coupled with some of the most advanced AD systems being shipped to Ukraine, resulted in an extremely high down rate for both cruise missiles and drones, meaning Russia would have to throw hundreds of millions worth of missiles each wave to hit 1-2 targets in the end. Guess what happened after 10-20 waves? They ran out. That's why the general was demoted, not because of some beef with wagner over a village lol.
said, they failed. Also they're almost out so they can't do that many more attacks 🙂
it takes time to produce emore - and sending them in small numbers will only make them easier to intercept - so they will stockpile and then launch 100-200 at once
I'll just repeat it
They're down to their minimum strategic reserve and they found out that shooting less than around 70 missiles into a somewhat working air defence network doesn't generate hits on targets.
So they'll wait until 100+ are ready, and an actually important target is found.
Wasting them on empty warehouses, random town halls and hospitals etc. like they did the past few months is obviously pointless and too expensive.
And they have Shaheed bow to just throw at area targets like power plants and hospitals, which is more economic and puts the same kind of pressure on Ukraine.
It's what General whatshisname did in Syria, stands to reason he'd try the same thing again.
And the Russians actually did hit the hospital in Kherson when they hit the city with BM-21s, so apparently tehy'Re learning to use cheaper weapons for their terror attacks.
I mean, it's still stupid and it still doesn't work and it'S smarter to hit tthings taht actually allow the enemy to fight, but who am I to tell them that.
Last time they shot a wave of 70 or so and lagely failed to penetrate or saturate the air defences.
So, like I said, they'll wait until enough are ready.
Production rate estiamtes vary wildly of course, but we can be reasonably certain thatthey'Re not making hundreds per months, it's probably less than a hundred.
So yeah. Next wave in March or April, maybe?
Plus they've had some trouble protecting their launch platforms, i.e. strategic aircraft and naval forces.
Why they insist on using the expensive and complicated method of sea and air launch over the simpler and cheaper method of land launching their cruise missiles is a good question, but I can't answer it.
me the cat he the fox are in society
of us you can to trust
Running low and stockpiling or running out and panicking.
So the master plan to leave kiev without electricity and freeze them to death failed? (same with the EU one)
Not entirely, if the war lasts another 2-3 years Ukraines economy might actually finally give in, but i dont know if the Russians have the stomach or the will for it, plus if NATO slowly ramps up by sending more modern equipment they will be squeezed out anyway.
It still remains to be seen how both sides play it out.
Wrong.
Ukraines GDP in 2020 was 156 billion.
Given that 2/3rds the population is gone, the USA can just give 50 billion in aid every year to prop the remaining 1/3rd of the economy up.
That is plenty of money to keep Ukraine's own war machine going, keep soldiers paid and trained, keep people fed, keep power and water going, etc.
based
It's not a static thing, running out. They have some parts they can manufacture, those they're manufacturing. There are other components that have been made scarce by sanctions, that's the limiting factor. They are getting these through a combination of picking over multiple nonfunctional missiles to make one that works and smuggling parts in subversion of sanctions when they can. That takes time.
Pre war production of cruise missiles was about 225 per year give or take,i am going to be generous and say that they will probably be able to produce 5 times that with semi-war econony thats still just 1100misiles.
Enough for 11 barages per year, and with more ad systmes coming in Ukraine already, the less than ideal succes rate may be lowered even further.
So yeah, not the best option to base your doctrine on cruise missiles and ww1 style infantry rushes, you need alot inbetween.
Eventually they will straight up run out of surplus missiles that have useful high tech components. If they don't work something out then that might actually be the end of large scale missile attacks. They'll struggle to put together five at once.
>generous and say that they will probably be able to produce 5 times that with semi-war econony thats still just 1100misiles.
Ukraine estimates put current new production of Russian cruise missiles at 50-60 per month, And war economy or not I don't see that exactly doubling, and I don't see Ukrainians underestimating their volumes either. Does them no good to underplay a threat, ever.
If anything, they could be lying and overestimating.
Some higher up probably found out that wasting missiles on playgrounds is neither cool nor very effective
Shills ITT
Gerasimov won
Shoigu won
Guess they run out and are producing a slow trickle that they're stocking up for another big strike.
Or maybe the think that building missiles is no longer worth it with all the new western anti-missile tech in Ukraine now.
What if this an actual good gesture from Russia?
The only good will gesture Russia could do that would actually be accepted is pulling out of Ukraine. At this point there's nothing else that would be accepted as "good will". Because regardless of where you are on the fence of Russia winning or losing, Russia is at the very least losing a lot more than Ukraine in terms of equipment, men & the #1 most important item: reputation. If Ukraine was losing more equipment & men than Russia, then Russia would be gaining a lot more ground.
>start hitting someone with a baseball bat
>stop
>"this is a good gesture"
n o
Acumulating for Keef feint v2.0 that'll come when current mogilisation wave is ready.
I wonder how many can Russia practically launch on one wave. Regardless of availible count, how many launch vehicles they have and how many they can store for one barrage.
A gesture of good will.
wtf I thought Russia had infinite missiles????
Gerasimov finally had enough of General Armageddout wasting Russia‘s stockpiles on playgrounds.
>Demoted
Source?
https://tass.com/politics/1561153
Gerasimov is now in charge of all forces in Ukraine. Armageddon got demoted to commanding the aerospace force which is a joke position since the Russian air force has barely been active in recent months and the strategic bombers were relocated to the Far East.
That's Gerasimov demoted not Armageddon.
>"Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has been appointed as commander of the integrated group of troops (forces). His deputies are: Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces Army General Sergey Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces Army General Oleg Salyukov, and also Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Colonel-General Alexey Kim," the ministry said.
You illiterate baboon.
Who told you that Gerasimov was demoted, moron? He keeps his old position AND gets to command all forces directly. Surovikin is now a nobody deputy. Might as well be a bell boy.
based double agent general Armageddon wasted them all for minimal effect and got demoted
They figured they should cut down on the war crime stuff, the brass don't want to be hanged.
How the frick 12 days is 3 weeks you moron?
t. kyiv-anon
New Year's eve was Shaheds, not missiles.
Shithead is really moving up in the world, isn't she?
> missile/drone attack
Uh, OK.
Because it failed. Ukraine (rightfully so) just repaired those stations again.
That fricking moron General Armageddon thought it would work because it worked in fricking Syria, who no one helped and barely had spare infrastructure parts to begin with. Instead, the whole of EU, NATO + others jumped in to help with generators to relieve pressure from the grid and most importantly, with transformers and other substation spare parts, including foreign engineers (some Italians and japanese). That, coupled with some of the most advanced AD systems being shipped to Ukraine, resulted in an extremely high down rate for both cruise missiles and drones, meaning Russia would have to throw hundreds of millions worth of missiles each wave to hit 1-2 targets in the end. Guess what happened after 10-20 waves? They ran out. That's why the general was demoted, not because of some beef with wagner over a village lol.
The feud thing is still the only good explanation I've seen for the faked Prigozhin salt mine photos though
All indications are that upper command in Russia is fighting for control in a war that's spiraling out of control.
The 2 week timeline lines up with the army units preparing for an offensive along a different axis. It's reasonable to assume that military district intra-fighting resulted in Gerasimov having to assert his authority directly by being assigned to theatre. The decision was then formalized with the Armageddon demotion as an example to make other units in theatre fall in line.
General Armageddutin has been replaced by General MegaBlack personkov.
Concrete takes time to dry.
They will do what they should have done a year ago and launch 1000 of the when they do their next big push on Kiev.
Yeah anon they're going to repeat what failed in February using african surplus tier missiles with minute-of-municipality accuracy.
Do you really think that anybody in the Russian chain of command is giving their decisions that much thought?
Since they appear to be fresh out of actual ideas, and they did order order another 1k Shaheeds. . .
Why do you think they demoted "general armakekdon"? They found out just how many missiles he wasted with 0 result. Missile strikes on civilian infrastructure are not coming back.
Good will gestdure
probably saving up for a bigger barrage because ukis kept intercepting more and more missiles each time
now the problem is, while bigger barrages are harder to intercept, it also means Ukraine has more time for repairs
It's spelled Kyiv.
maybe russia is low on missiles?
Why aren't they using the hypersonic wunderwaffe Kinzhals?
i like how the kinzhal has advertised capabilities that are physically impossible in combination. bullshitters to the core.
It's the 12th today, so it's two weeks since the last big strike.
they're updating them, fixing the issues
As
said, they failed. Also they're almost out so they can't do that many more attacks 🙂
They've been almost out since March last year
Nope, these waves started after summer, so what you're saying makes no sense lol.
OPs false narrative deconstructed, so he leaves the thread.
it takes time to produce emore - and sending them in small numbers will only make them easier to intercept - so they will stockpile and then launch 100-200 at once
>it takes time to produce emore
It takes them 3 months to produce enough missiles for 1 strike.
they completed their mission
ukranians are without power or heat and russia continues to advance 🙂
> ukranians are without power or heat
huh? Kiev had power and heat throughout the holidays lol
None of these is true, though.
Silly hohols, the russians are just waiting for you to rebuild your playground. No playground for kids to play = rebellious kids in the future
general armageddon essentially bump fired all their missiles and was fired for it.
B-B-But the russians said that the Kalibrs would never stop?!
Z-bros, what is happening?!
Probably american glowie Armageddon just spend them beyond the recovery limit. Gerasimov saves the rest for the next offense.
I'll just repeat it
They're down to their minimum strategic reserve and they found out that shooting less than around 70 missiles into a somewhat working air defence network doesn't generate hits on targets.
So they'll wait until 100+ are ready, and an actually important target is found.
Wasting them on empty warehouses, random town halls and hospitals etc. like they did the past few months is obviously pointless and too expensive.
And they have Shaheed bow to just throw at area targets like power plants and hospitals, which is more economic and puts the same kind of pressure on Ukraine.
>Wait till 100+ are ready
By which time, the Ukrainians have had time to make repairs. Russian sunk cost fallacy at work.
>throw at ... hospitals
charming
It's what General whatshisname did in Syria, stands to reason he'd try the same thing again.
And the Russians actually did hit the hospital in Kherson when they hit the city with BM-21s, so apparently tehy'Re learning to use cheaper weapons for their terror attacks.
I mean, it's still stupid and it still doesn't work and it'S smarter to hit tthings taht actually allow the enemy to fight, but who am I to tell them that.
What if, and hear me out here, they're stockpiling them for a massive wave or any sort of spring offensive.
>stockpiling
With The Smoker still lurking around? I dunno if Vatniks are brave or brainless.
Last time they shot a wave of 70 or so and lagely failed to penetrate or saturate the air defences.
So, like I said, they'll wait until enough are ready.
Production rate estiamtes vary wildly of course, but we can be reasonably certain thatthey'Re not making hundreds per months, it's probably less than a hundred.
So yeah. Next wave in March or April, maybe?
Plus they've had some trouble protecting their launch platforms, i.e. strategic aircraft and naval forces.
Why they insist on using the expensive and complicated method of sea and air launch over the simpler and cheaper method of land launching their cruise missiles is a good question, but I can't answer it.
>why did Russia stop civilian/infrastructure bombing?
General Armageddon got demoted to Major Disappointment.