Would the Taiwanese Army be able to hold off a PLA offensive as well as the AFU has been able to hold off the Russians?
Would the Taiwanese Army be able to hold off a PLA offensive as well as the AFU has been able to hold off the Russians?
Would the Taiwanese Army be able to hold off a PLA offensive as well as the AFU has been able to hold off the Russians?
try asking r/AsianMasculinity
I dunno, it the US NAVY in between the two? In any case I rate Xi a bit above Putin. I dont think he wants to tank china's economy and make them an international pariah.
Taiwan is a tool by China to drag the US into a fight they can't win.
China build 32 Aegis destoyer and grand destoyer and is launching 10 more in 2023, yet they only built 8 landing ships.
Anyone who think Taïwan is the target is an ignorant moron.
China will only attack Taïwan if the US is on the table
Good, that makes Japs Asia's Ukraine
>China build 32 Aegis destoyer and grand destoyer and is launching 10 more in 2023, yet they only built 8 landing ships.
They'll commandeer their civilian fleet to boost the numbers.
>transports are landing ships
Ok moron
>Armoured Personnel Carrier Carrier
Heh
>They'll commandeer their civilian fleet to boost the numbers.
German Invasion of Norway is their model -- and their plans with the Soviets for a move on North America is identical, with the Russians doing the same with Euro commercial fleets in a dash to Gibraltar.
ESL delusions
China doesn't have Aegis and wtf is grand destroyer?
kek sure. the entire world will drop the worlds largest manufacturing base that makes everything for everyone because some ailing declining empire headed by neurotic israelites, blackmailed dementia addled geriatrics, colored incompetents, and the pride brigade of delusional deviant trannies and gays said to do so. the US is on its way out whether people like it or not. this shithole country becomes more violent and abusive the more it tries to stay relevant. the only collateral(manufacturing) this pile of shit had was sold off before most of the people here were even born. enjoy the decline
also suck my dick day shift troony janny. block these nuts. every Ukraine propaganda thread or “what are the tactical advantages” threads your buddies in the eglan air force base cubicle next to you post stay up all day. hey you lazy fricks, actually show me the posts that violate the rules instead of handing out moronic arbitrary bans because you can’t handle what’s being said.
what are the tactile advantages of troony jannies sucking my nuts. there, this post is 100% on topic per your own criteria
Damn, you hit every single npc point in like 2 seconds. Are the transsexual israeli black Nazi communist vampires in the room right now little guy?
>anon casually reveals that his mind has turned into meme infested /misc/mush
Im glad the few pro ukrainian posts I make every month has broken your brain so much. Im not going to report you, your post is humiliation enough.
lmao you are beyond repair at this point, that's pretty fricking pathetic
>Schizobabble
Our enemies rely on this to overturn our democracy?
>the worlds largest manufacturing base
Lol, China isn't the worlds largest manufacturing base anymore, you moron. The production has been moved to other countries.
1% of export market production has been moved out of China, during that time more production has been moved in than has been moved out.
lololol
China is (congrats btw) becoming a conumser nation, not a production nation
that really is a good thing!
but it means that SEAsia is taking over a lot of the role that China played 20 years ago, often for China.
Those other countries just assemble what China make you dumb dumb. Over 50% of world's manufacturing is still in China
not anything vital chang. Just consumer goods that anybody with cheap enough biobots can do. Which is not you anymore btw. india/mexico have been viable alternatives for quite a while now. Also it aint naywhere close to 50% even for civilian shit manufacturing moron
Ignorant boomer
Your pharmaceutical and industrial parts are all from China. USA can't even make a street lamp without China.
If China cut anti biotics, millions of mutts just die.
If the West stopped exporting food to you China would suffer a worse famine than the Great Leap Forward
>repeating the same BS make it true.
China is self sufficient in food, they'll just have less meat and wine
One submarine would end all oil shipments out of the Persian gulf destined for China.
>doesn't link to the source of his image
It's also false, anyways.
As per https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29020276/ ,
> There are no data on U.S. production of antibiotics. In 2015, however, roughly 30 percent of U.S. antibiotic spending was on imports, meaning the remaining 70 percent was spent on antibiotics manufactured in the United States.
> Canada supplied one third of U.S. antibiotic imports in 2019, followed by India (18 percent) and Italy (11 percent). These nations have remained the top three sources for antibiotic imports over the past decade. Chinese antibiotics accounted for roughly 9 percent of total antibiotic imports in 2019, two percentage points higher than in 2010 when China was the seventh largest supplier.
You might be a chink shill, but sharted on the mutts so you get a based from me dawg.
In what way is bold faced lying and delusion based?
Because the delusion is a mere exaggeration of reality
You can't even frick properly and even your own people hate you. Your doomed. Embrace democracy and move here. Join the fun side.
Democracy is gay and so are you
Calm down.
Your parents need to take away your computer
I laffed but it's kinda true
>NOOOOO MY JUNK CARCINOGENIC PLASTIC TRASH
No one gives a frick, island chinks and SEAmonkeys and streetshitters make all that shit now anyway
Enjoy losing access to global food shipping
I WILL have a Taiwanese wife.
Taiwan is basically fricked unless the US immediately responds like the invasion is literally
>anodah Pearl Harbour
it's still fricked in that scenario as well but at least there will probably be a country to rebuild afterwards.
They have zero hope of them resisting a Chinese invasion for more than a week and the comparison to the Ukraine-Russia situation is more damaging than useful.
>t. ching Chong
I have zero idea how Xi's army is.
This. I have a feeling it's at least more competent than Russia. Mabye, I don't know. I don't even think the DoD knows.
Russia has been in a handful of conflicts in the last 30 years, so it had some teeth.
China has been doing frickall since the 70s.
That being said, the Chinese have the advantage of having a clear and measurable objective: conquering Formosa.
Russia pussy footed around and nobody in their military knew what they were doing with aqueous tasks like "denazification Ukraine".
Now that they have the clearer objective of annexing the Donbas, you're likely to see fewer goofs.
tl;dr
I think China might be even less capable than Russia, but the objective is simpler, although not necessarily easier
Experience and small victories versus no experience and the last conflict being a quick embarrassing defeat actually make the Russians a bit more competent.
It's a police force full of unmotivated men. Their main job is beating down chinamen from other parts of china when they get uppity.
The PLA would be more motivated because it's indoctrinated and also this is one of those situations where the Chinese mainland public is probably more hawkish on Taiwan than the government is. Problem is that amphibious operations is about the hardest thing you can possibly do.
?t=2470
I actually bought this Chinese beating stick from a surplus catalog this year. It's basically a quarterstaff. It's a little worn out so I wonder if it cracked any skulls in Hong Kong.
iirc general consensus is it was shit 30 years ago, the chinese realised it was shit 20 years ago and they have been aggressively reforming it ever since
right now nobody knows how far they have managed to reform it
I've seen a lot of "near peer in 2030s, peer 2040s" sentiment in the US but it might be outdated, I don't really keep up with all this shit anymore
allegedly the reforms range from "captain mong, we're going to hold a public humiliation ceremony and then you'll get your shit in order" to "general chang chong, you remember the late general ping pong? turns out the natural cause was his tea not having enough tea and too much dart frog. please retire"
they're considered to have been fairly effective
China knew it was shit since the 60s, look up any of Deng's comments on the military.
Mao's tubby, moronic grandson is a Major General. Competency in the PLA might be pretty hit and miss in China if they still have hereditary military leaders.
No
CSTO supersoldiers
Well they have functioning camoflage instead of white and blue, so there's at least a plus there.
From what public info you can gather, they're basically Gendarmerie but with the equipment of a full fledged military and moldy food.
More or less this, there’s hardly any info on the Chinese military since we have no clue how they are really.
>there’s hardly any info on the Chinese military since we have no clue how they are really
Neither do they kek
My guess is way more competent.
As much as people want to shit on the CCP. They're clearly one of the most efficient and competent Governments on earth, Xi takes corruption extremely seriously and basically has anyone caught taking bribes or whatever imprisoned for life on the spot (if you don't believe this, read the CIA files on Xi, they literally call him "Mr Clean" for how serious and ruthless he is against corruption), on top of this China actually has a functional political system, high trust society and rates at the top of the world along with Singapore for "responsiveness".
Chinese Wargames are designed for Chinese to lose against opfor unlike Russian war game and China clearly has modern weaponry that works. Also uses NCO system like the west from their experiences in the Korean War, unlike Russia.
Main issue with Chinese troops will be that they have pretty much no experience beyond fighting poos with literal sticks. They can only learn by watching others wars, they simply won't have ironed out the on the ground issues that America has from sheer overwhelming experiences.
>Xi takes corruption extremely seriously
Only when it comes to his political enemies. Corruption is a systemic part of the Chinese economy from top to bottom. You can't do so much as open a coffee shop without bribing someone.
>China actually has a functional political system
Only because of its authoritarianism. A system without checks and balances may be able to act quickly, but that often comes at the expense of poor decision-making.
>high trust society
You can't possibly be serious. Chinese people try to scam and screw each other over left and right. There are so many counterfeit rmb notes thrown around that they put a uv watermark on the real ones. People constantly steal from each other and the cops can't be bothered to do anything about it unless you have guanxi with someone important. If you want to see a real high trust society, go to Japan. You can drop you wallet on the ground there and there's a good chance you'll get it back with all of its contents (including cash) intact.
If TSMC gets blown up, will a chink invasion of Taiwan matter anymore in the end?
Yes, because the chips are NOT the primary reason why Taiwan is useful to china. It's an added benefit, but the primary reason why Taiwan is useful is because it contains china behind the first island chain. If China takes the island, they have a clear path to the pacific and you know they'd militarize the FRICK outta taiwan.
Chip manufacturing isn't the only reason China wants Taiwan and isn't the only reason the US wants to keep China out of Taiwan.
>We are gonna cross the Taiwan Strait so ea-AAACK!
the AFU had six years of experience fighting a civil war, as well as a land border with friendly nations able to truck in supplies. Taiwan is completely inexperienced and relatively geographically isolated. China is also inexperiennced, but have the benefit of logistical and numerical superiority with the theoretical ability to full encircle Taiwan..
So you've got two inexperienced forces, but one has the advantage of defending an archipielago. Numerical advantage doesn't mean much if you can't get your troops there. And China purportedly would want to keep the infrastructure intact, which complicates things. And then there's the U.S. ensuring their protection, and they've got some experience.
There's a reason why that invasion hasn't happened yet, and it's not because it's not burning a hole in Xi's pocket.
Additionally the U.S. views the Taiwan Strait as international waters and would immediately start freedom of navigation excercises in the run up and during any planned invasion. So China would have to risk a shooting war if it didn't want American ISR assets over the strait 24/7.
Taiwan would get completely fricked in the ass without the assistance of a coalition.
However bad you think the PLA is, Taiwan's armed forces are worse.
Personally, I'm looking forward to the semiconductor supply chain getting diversified so we don't need to care about them any longer.
>t. Li Cheng
basically they need to spend 4.5% of GDP on defense to have credible deterrent but they won't so no
What's an AFU?
Anal fisting unification
That seems to be what they're doing to Russia
Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Brother of Apu apustaja
Defending against an enemy who has to supply over sea sounds easier. Then again I assume China's invasion plan would be a hell of a lot less moronic than Russia's
>Would the Taiwanese Army be able to hold off a PLA offensive as well as the AFU has been able to hold off the Russians?
Yes.
Depends on how incompetent the chicoms are. Much like Russia they have plenty of propaganda and next to no transparency.
Taiwan would lose.
Because China could cut off all supplie routes. Unlike Ukraine that still gets supplies at their western border.
Their only chance would be a US & SEA coalition intervention.
SEA doesn't care about Taiwan.
Japan said they would defend Taiwan
Japan said they would defend Taiwan if the USA also defend Taiwan*
That's Japan playing off US strategic ambiquity. Means that now China has to consider both the US and Japan might defend Taiwan, making it really not worth effort (as if US defending it wasn't enough).
Yeah, this picture basically covers my thoughts on this. PLA can't reach Taiwan. They might be able to attempt to blockade it, but they can't land troops.
Another moron who think it's about Taïwan. Fighting the US is the goal
nah
But that’s moronic
Fricking saved.
I know that wasn't as comprehensive as it made out to be, and PLA were actively seeking time to adapt (Which is why paying very good attention to informed political commentators is so important with SCS shenanigans), but for sheer pragmatic military thought that anon was awesome.
SEA doesn't mean south and east asia, southeast asia is between south and east asia
They need the sea routes and don't want to cross between mainland china and chinese controlled taiwan.
But you are probably right, they won't spill blood for that.
Vietnam will lose their shit the moment Xi attacks Taiwan
How is China going to blockade Taiwan when the US controls the eastern approaches with bases from the Phillipines and Japan?
Because it's China that control the eastern approach
Expalin that. Because from where I'm looking that doesn't seem to be the case considering Japan and the Phillipines own the first chain islands in the area.
>Japan and the Phillipines own the first chain islands in the area.
Define owning. Is being covered by over 300 000 Chinese missiles owning?
If Chinas missiles work like their guns we’ll be fine
Nobody owns anything by that definition. And just because an area is hypothetically within the range of a country's missiles, that doesn't mean they can actually make effective use of those missiles without other elements being physically much closer.
Island chain strategy is an outdated relic. You are just giving the enemy a tons of targets. That's why the US is pulling back to Guam and leaving the Japs and Philippines to get bombed
The US marines are training hard in Island hopping, nice try
>Island hopping,
Ok boomer, marine make good missiles targets
>Islands bases are useless and outdated, that why were building lots of islands everywhere
Lol moron
US dont have enough missiles in the area lol
We only need one.
30° 49′ 23″ N, 111° 0′ 12″ E
Yeah too bad. If only the U.S. had a massive navy and air force capable of delivering missiles anywhere in the world.
Full of 30yr old ship with outdated sensors and missiles
Whatever you say, chang.
these islands are tiny and are very far from home. even if it has anti-air systems, just a couple of misses in the right spot could render an airfield or a radar useless with no reinforcements.
Too bad theres no PLAN force to challenge them as they were sunk
Nah, it's the outdated mutt navy that would be sunk
Do you just enjoy being moronic for fun? The U.S. has a massive air base on Okinawa and just negotiated for greater access to bases in the Phillipines.
>massive air base on Okinawa
A massive target get bombed to oblivion
Hows Chinas missile defense system? Would be a shame if they declared war on powers known for precision missile spam.
If all of China is in US ICBM range do they really own China?
The Philippines doesn't have a real navy, they barely have a coast guard. They can't enforce their long ass coastline and territorial waters.
They also vehemently don't give a shit about Taiwan like other SEA countries and want to stay out of it. Even the most pro-USA presidents have stated in public that they'll close their northern borders if war happens between two Chink countries.
White people don't understand that the brown Asians despise the yellow ones and vice-versa. I can see a scenario where the Philippine military will gun down refugees trying to swim to their borders even if they host temporary base access for the Americans.
To ASEAN both China and Taiwan are the epitome of evil in the same coin.
Patently false. The Philippines is the most Pro Taiwanese nation in ASEAN. A survey by Channel News Asia was surprised to learn that 22% of Filipinos would militarily support Taiwan whereas the Average for other Southeast Asian countries, including Taiwanese ally Singapore was only 6%.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/taiwan-conflict-china-southeast-asia-dilemma-3296021
>22%
That's 78% who are against, thanks for proving my point.
Pinoys have gunned down perfidious Taiwankers throughout their history.
Can't speak for the rest, but my wife is Vietnamese and the Vietnamese people do not "absolutely detest" east-asians in general, they just do not like Chinese in particular because China fricks and have fricked with them so much. They generally like Koreans and Japanese, as an example.
Vietnam isn't really part of brown Asia, they're like Singapore. Displaced yellows in the brown Asian region.
Let's be honest the US would basically send ships straight through any blockade on the Phillipine Sea side hoping the Chinese would be done enough.
Idk given Chinas glorious naval history going up against a Western Navy might not be a good thing
>be China
>call your own ships junk
Is chinese ships named after junk or junk named after chinese ships?
As a HK born, foreign Chinese
No.
All strong masculine Chinese died during the Three kingdoms period.
we haven't have a single masculine gene left
What about strong steppe Black person genes?
Stepp nomads Y chromosome where Han Chinese tbh.
Han dynasty destroyed the Hun (the Hun don't look asian), the Chinese rape babies became the Mongols.
You got a single fact to back that up?
PLA cant even reach taiwan with troops yet
Do not underestimate the difficulty of an amphibious invasion. Since WWII only the Brits and Americans have any experience pulling them off. China may be expecting its missiles and aircraft to win the war, but look at the difficulty Russia has bringing those assets to bear in Ukraine. Barring some unforseen development, China will have to open and maintain a bridgehead which would be liable to be struck at any time from virtually anywhere on the island. We saw what Ukraine could do with a handful of HIMARS against Russian logisitics, Taiwan has somewhere around 30 launchers as well.
the Chinese can only land 15k men (10K Amphibiously & 5k by Air) with current capability's while a Taiwanese squad can pin down a Chinese squad 4x longer due to the fact the Chinese base their squads around a 120mm unguided anti-tank rocket launcher, contrary to overall western squads including the Taiwanese squad base theirs around the machine gun (in short the Taiwanese will outnumber the Chinese if they land and be able to pin down their units longer than the Chinese can pin down Taiwanese units)
>Block your path
>30 round mag
>immediately loses flight stability the moment it fires.
>the Chinese can only land 15k men
Unless..
>In the first wave of an assault the Chinese navy’s traditional amphibious assault ships could deliver roughly one heavy brigade’s worth of equipment (though likely spread over a larger number of lighter amphibious brigades) and about 21,000 troops. This pales in comparison to the capacity of its civilian fleet ... When combined with the Chinese navy’s sealift capacity, this means that China could deliver more than eight heavy brigades-worth of equipment, and about 60,000 troops, in the first sealift wave. And this would be in addition to those forces that could be delivered by airdrop, helicopter, or via surreptitious infiltration in the weeks or months leading up to an invasion.
>Just as important as the size of a first wave would be the ability of China’s civilian roll-on/roll-off vessels and amphibious assault ships to continue to deliver vehicles and troops. Here is where China’s civilian vessels could truly shine, given that their commercial purpose is to quickly load and deliver cargo ... Over time, this roll-on/roll-off civilian shipping alone could deliver seven full Group Armies with their associated brigades — likely more than 300,000 troops and their vehicles — in about 10 days.
?t=243
>Civilians? We need destroyers!
This is where reading this
comes into play.
What happens when every Chinese craft becomes PLAN in the eyes of the world?
>Here is where China’s civilian vessels could truly shine, given that their commercial purpose is to quickly load and deliver cargo
Into ports, not onto well-defended beaches under heavy fire across a strait.
I imagine the ROC has the western ports designed in such a way that they can be sabotaged fairly easily
They are also range cards for the 8 inch guns that have been targeted since the 70s.
It took the allies forever to get enough ports in Normandy. And they still had to build weird floating docks.
>well-defended beaches under heavy fire
It would be suicidal for Taiwan to defend it's beaches from fixed positions when it has no real way to compete with the chink airforce, the supporting Navy and the Chinese missile inventory. Conventional resistance like what Ukraine is pulling is hard to imagine in general but this is a surefire way to get the Taiwanese Army taken out of the invasion rather quickly when they could mount a better resistance inland.
>Into ports, not onto well-defended beaches under heavy fire across a strait.
>blocks your path
Any landings need to be dispersed to not get fricked.
>blocks your path
Defending beach with artillery in 2023.
Ok moron
>he's watched the Ukrainian war
>and still thinks MLRS renders artillery obsolete.
>unguided MLRS at that.
>he's watched the Ukrainian war
>and still thinks MLRS renders artillery obsolete.
You don't realize the scale difference do you?
>unguided MLRS at that.
Ignorant moron
>You don't realize the scale difference do you?
Scale of what? The two largest armies in Europe fighting?
I agree. The PLA will be so bottlenecked that it will be outnumbered in the invasion worse than Ukraine
Or the scale of distance? A crow, shell or a rocket can fly the same distance over water as Ukrainian farmland. And the Taiwanese artilleryman has the advantages of mountains. He can lob high angle fires onto beaches from the reverse slope of mountains. Whereas the PLA rockets on the mainland must fire at a lower angle to reach that far, and will hit the east side of the mountain before the artillery.
*west side
>he doesn't realize that Chinese MLRS and Missiles covers the entire islands
>he doesn't realize China has enough missiles to bomb taiwan 10s of times over
Reminder that the US dropped more bombs on Vietnam that was dropped in all theatres of WW2 combined and still lost
Not that Anon but Taiwan is also 1/10 the size of Vietnam with like half of it's population being in three cities. Invading modern Vietnam for China would be much harder than invading Taiwan.
>he thinks terror bombing works
Or
>he thinks that a missile with a tiny warhead can reliably interdict armored and Mobile artillery hidden in dense mountain forests.
>he doesn't realize China is leading in drones ans UAV
Also, China will only attack Taïwan if the US is on the table
>>he doesn't realize China is leading in drones ans UAV
That didn't help the US much in Afghanistan and those are bare mountains with no concealment, also if Russia cannot establish air supremacy or even sufficient recon a year into the war due to manpads, China won't have any more luck
>CCP wants to take on Taiwan AND US
Which form of harebrained delusion is this?
You are just moronic
Taking taiwan gets China nothing, destroy the USA in a war can gain a lot.
USA doesn't have the industry to fight China, it would be a reverse pacific war.
Oh right, fifty cent delusion.
Amerimutt too ignorant and stupid see reality. Nice
I hope we get to use black projects on you guys but we know deep down you’re not even worthy of them
We both you dumb slanted eyed Black folk can't project power to an island right next to you let alone being able to take on the worlds hegemon. Your delusional are fricking hilarious and as fragile as your building materials. Next you'll tell me that you're going to make a contested landing with civilian ships.
You are and you will always be a third rate power After Saudi Arabia as you suck at their tit for energy. And if you believe in your own delusional of graduate, you will not only see another 100 years of humiliation, but see a famine that'll make the great leap forward look like a week long fast.
I hope you're ready Chink, because I am.
Very nice. Now build enough of those bridges to sustain a land invasion under fire into a heavily fortified beach after crossing a contested ocean in mostly civilian ships without proper IFF when your enemy will absolutely have at least several months to prepare and constant accurate satellite imaging.
Imagine Feb/March 2022 except this time the invaders have to cross 100 miles of ocean and the defenders have Apaches, F16s, and HIMARS from the outset.
Also on the indoctrination thing, it's also more that they actually want it. It's in the heart. Americans can be "vulgar-materialists" abut these things. Basically you also gotta be a believer in what you're fighting for, and the Changs do believe in taking Taiwan.
You'll get in trouble applying Russia/Ukraine to China/Taiwan. I think one thing that messed Putin up is that he thought Ukraine was like Afghanistan and the government there is just like the one the U.S. was propping up so they'd just run away.
Wanting Taiwan doesn't get an invasion force across a channel.
Well yeah. But they are doing long-term preparation for it and I'm just noting the psychological factors, others can talk about the hardware, the number and quality of ships or missiles and so on. The Russians acted in Ukraine like they weren't even going to war, how many soldiers even knew what they were getting into? China is engaging in long-term psychological preparation. In one of the recent war movies, soldiers build a bridge of human flesh across a river to keep a supply line in Korea open:
?t=6204
I'm not sure how stupid shit in propoganda movies translates to a military being able to take a heavily defended island. If anything that sort of fanatical "we'll get it done because we want it" attitude is undermining to the careful and level headed planning required of such a complex operation.
It's to inculcate a willingness die in the pursuit of that goal, and they definitely show that to soldiers with that purpose in mind. That's their job.
Yeah, because that worked out really well for Imperial Japan.
obviously, the real question is if they could retake the mainland.
Isnt Taiwan going hard into asymmetric warfare now? If they can restrategize into turning their island into a fortified drone base they could make themselves prohibitively costly to take conventionally and if the commies murder hundreds of thousands to millions in strikes to flatten the island in comes the UN intervention.
>asymmetric warfare
China doesn't plan to land lol See
So explain to me how the US is gonna get dragged into an unwinnable war if China isnt brave enough to commit forces?
China will only attack Taïwan if the US is committed to defend it. Strategic ambiguity is the only thing stopping China right now
There's a big piece of water between Taiwan proper and China, China's few experienced officers were involved in the Vietnam embarassment, China has no experience in amphibious landings which are difficult even for countries that regularly do them, China was modifying car ferries to make amphibious ships, Taiwan is starting off with Western weapons, Taiwan has been digging into that island its whole history, etc. I think it could actually go worse. They could still destroy the cities with missiles though and strangle the island for supplies if they are willing to fire on the west.
No. The war is going to be won or lost in the sea and air.
I don't know how motivated they are compared to Ukraine honestly. In the end they are all Chinese. I mean sure you could say the same thing about Ukrainians all being slavs as well but they seem to have a much stronger national identity and will to fight.
In Taiwan's defense, they are an Island, making it much harder for China to launch any campaign on them, but it all depends on how committed China is. They could potentially sit back and just launch missiles at Taiwan for months on end and take out as much equipment as they can and then launch an amphibious / airborne assault, but even then it would be pretty brutal. Taiwan is just very mountainous outside of the larger cities, and depending on how dedicated the defenders are they can hold the high ground for a long period of time while inflicting a ton of casualties. China has 1.5 billion people though, and they aren't afraid to send women / prisoners / whatever just like Russia is doing now, they can just wage a war for years / anti-insurgency if needed.
>China has 1.5 billion people
no. if you substract the inflated numbers liked their inflated up GDP then they are somewhere around 1.1-1.2 billion. These Potemkin dictatorships ares always a bunch of smoke and mirrors, like russia, where they end up gaslighting themsleves with their own bullshit
Damn dude, you really like that word.
That's not me, I used it correctly and he didn't. A Potemkin dictatorship would mean they're larping as a dictatorship.
>Noun. Potemkin village (plural Potemkin villages) (idiomatic) Any false construct devised to disguise a shortcoming or improve appearances.
Taiwan has half the population of Ukraine. China has almost 10x the population of Russia. Taiwan would have to stop the landing, if the PRC breaks out of the beachheads it would be ogre.
Dual-use car ferries:
>What really matters in terms of the threat of invasion of Taiwan, however, is how much China’s civilian shipping could bolster its assault forces in aggregate. To help gain a sense of this I conducted a survey, using broadcasted identification data, of large oceangoing Chinese-owned roll-on/roll-off ferries and vehicle carriers. The size of ships is often measured in tons. Confusingly, sometimes this refers to the volume of the enclosed space of a ship (gross tons), and sometimes it refers to the weight of the contents a ship can carry (cargo, fuel, passengers, etc., in deadweight tons). Naval vessels are normally measured in displacement tonnes, which refers to the weight of water displaced by a ship when it floats. For the purpose of comparison with the Chinese navy’s fleet of amphibious assault ships, with the assistance of a naval architect I converted the measurements of China’s roll-on/roll-off ferries and vehicle carriers into displacement tonnes.
The result? By my estimate, China’s large roll-on/roll-off ferries total approximately 750,000 displacement tonnes, and its vehicle carriers total about 425,000 tonnes. The combination of this civilian roll-on/roll-off shipping — more than 1.1 million tonnes of potential vehicle and troop transport ships — is more than three times the tonnage of the Chinese navy’s entire fleet of amphibious assault ships (about 370,000). These civilian roll-on/roll-off fleets, essentially all of which could be put at the service of the People’s Liberation Army, are also greater in tonnage than the sum of all of the U.S. Navy’s amphibious assault ships (about 840,000). If available for military use, Hong Kong’s roll-on/roll-off vehicle carriers would add a further 370,000 displacement tonnes to the total, bringing it to nearly 1.5 million tonnes of sealift shipping.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/mind-the-gap-how-chinas-civilian-shipping-could-enable-a-taiwan-invasion/
china should have just started dumping rocks and sand on the sea the moment the civil war ended. the sea there is very shallow and narrow, by the 80s they would have had a wide land bridge, and taiwan would have simply surrendered.
It worked once
The area Russia took in the early days of the war was bigger than Taiwan. China will easily win this one
what is a water?
I don't think so. The war would be much shorter but far more violent with a fricking lot of Chinese mainlanders dying, but Taiwan, the island of Formosa is fricking tiny with no strategic depth like Ukraine has, so there's no place for the Taiwanese to continuously retreat and inflict mass casualties on the invaders like Ukraine did. Taiwan's only hope is to sink the Chinese invading fleet while missiles rain down on them. If they sink enough Chinese vessels, China might back down and agree to an armistice.
95% of a Taiwanese invasion is decided by how effective the initial missile volley by China is, how many ships hit naval mines and how effective the Taiwanese anti-ship missiles are. If China can land enough troops and/or decapitate the Taiwanese command structure or government then it's over for Taiwan. If too many landing ships get sunk or at least get shit on hard enough that the units inside are combat ineffective the invasion becomes six times more difficult.
You could always do some autistic ass detail analysis but the simple answer to any wargaming regarding Taiwan is that the deciding factor will be how many dudes China can get onto the beaches in fast order. If they can only trickle in troops and they haven't been able to cripple the Taiwanese military it'll just become PLA manlets getting bisected by artillery on beaches.
I think that Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows the limits of over the horizon attacks without a sustained air campaign. If they want to destroy the Taiwanese military it is going to start with achieving air superiority. China could obviously out attrite the Taiwanese air force but it would come at a steep cost, and in the meantime the Taiwanese will prepare for invasion and rally the rest of the world. It really comes down to China's willingness to absolutely flatten the country, like what the USA did to Iraq.
Stupid question perhaps but couldn’t Taiwan just flood the sea with anti ship mines and spam submarines in the Ocean lying in wait?
There is this weird myth that the straight of Taiwan is so shallow that submarines would be visible.
I have no idea who came up with that nonsense, because the US did some of its best hunting there in WW2
I would think they would really, really struggle with supplies for an invasion. The Western Allies in WW2 had a hell of a time with supplies in France and you could swim the English Channel, the distance to Taiwan is massively greater. I don't believe the Chinese have any experience in amphibious landings and frankly not much military experience. My guess is they would fail badly.
Even better since they're an island. The chinks would get gangfricked trying to disembark anywhere. This ain't no hong kong.
If the Chinks made landfall things are uberfricked for both sides.
PLA Amphibious assets would have to run the gauntlet of the Taiwan Strait while being in constant danger of anti ship missiles, air assets and submarines that go full moron and start shooting the converted civilian ships. Whatever forces that do make have to fight their way through one of densest urban areas in the world, all the spots that can serve a logistical capability are going to be bombed, mined and hit with Arty until the PLA can destroy every last piece of ROC Arty, from mortars, to howitzers to MLRS launchers and the occasional apache or even small ship going full schizo and dumping a load into the supply ships.
The ROC has a big advantage that it can, and will get the population on its side, even to a limited extent. Urban warfare is not kind and if they go Russia mode and start bombing Taiwan a lot of people will get angry, any warning will lead to Taiwanese assets being dispersed, especially their air force, and that will probably be the biggest fricking headache ever for the PLA.
Any ROCAF asset (fixed win asset) that is flying will tie up further PLAAF CAP and air superiority assets, denying air dominance and SEAD to the PLAAF. Taiwan's ground based air defense also means that China will be in a situation quite similar to Russia, meaning they will not be able to destroy Taiwanese IADS, only deny it to an extent, probably even less so than the Ruskies can. The main reason for that is that China can't really park S-300's and S-400's in Taiwan to help them out, sure, ships can help but it essentially means that lots of their ships will either tied up hugging the shore so they can give ground forces SAM (and vulnerable to attacks by shore based batteries) coverage OR they're hunting for Taiwanese Submarines and Ships, who will try to take pot shots at them at the first opportunity given.
>Cont
While the PLAAF can and will probably brute force it with J-20's and PL-15's carrying their ass, Taiwan's advantage in Early warning and local air defense means all the cards are stacked against them at any engagement not outside of SAM range. They will be forced into an attrional air war that will bleed their pilots, airframes and munitions dry. If they don't? Then the ROCAF is able to deny air superiority, PLAAF MPA's and Badger's will be on constant danger of being slapped in the ass by SM-2's or AIM-120's whenever they try and brave the strait to hunt for subs or Taiwan's surface forces.
The PLAN would probably fare slightly better, although, it's doubtful if anything bar their submarines would be able to get close enough to the islands to pose a practical threat, and even then, the Taiwanese have American ASW and MPA's operating inside their AD bubble that will only be pierced if the Chinks either fly around the fricking island or they drink their own cool aid about hypersonic missiles and try nailing a P-3 with their guided ballistic missiles.
Also, their Amphibious forces are fricked because any initial landing will be a brigade max of mechanized marines, some helicopters (that are going to be
nailed in the first hour or so by conscripts with stingers) walking into hyper Stalingrad with anime while they have no artillery whatsoever.
It's 50/50. The island is choke-full of 5th columnists (running the gamut from legit PLA plants to self-serving industrialists with too many ties with the mainland) and war is always tough sell to the youth.
They could very well fold like the Ukies in '14, but if they actually fight back the chicoms are in for a world of hurt.
IMO the chicums won't do shit. They're still on an ascendant curve and they've got everything to lose. It's only in times of crisis that all-or-nothing moves are attempted.
In another timeline they could have Crimea'd or Goa'd the Island but that train is gone.
One of the nice things about military studies is that a lot of the books are free.
https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/Books/crossing-the-strait/crossing-the-strait.pdf
I won’t read this because the authors are probably using claims and propaganda as the sole source for the analysis making it worthless.
One of the authors is from the China Maritime Studies Institute at the Naval War College which is about as credible as you can get in this subject.
https://usnwc.edu/Research-and-Wargaming/Research-Centers/China-Maritime-Studies-Institute
Also Andrew Erickson is with them who I think is basically the Jack Ryan of Chinese navy stuff. He's the guy the White House is gonna grab and pull into a briefing once the ships start moving. I suggest the anons here start reading their books.
https://www.andrewerickson.com/
The sole source of Chinese military info is the CCP in the form of state media claims and propaganda films. In other words they don’t have an actual military; the PLA is a branch of the CCP, not a national institution. Their corruption is HORRENDOUS, out of bounds even by the standards of the usual very extensive of corruption of China in general. It’s so bad the most outrageous scandals managed to make it into the public. Not only the military but also the MIC is shot through with systemic corruption. I guarantee nothing the PLA claims they can actually perform. Nothing they have works 100%. Nobody actually gets training, one reason being the officers have stolen all the training funds. And so on. The idea that the PLA can do more than propaganda films, let alone a cross-ocean invasion, is laughable.
But academia can’t come to that conclusion. There must be an analysis—and the data can ONLY come from CCP propaganda channels…period. No one outside of the top CCP management knows anything about the PLA’s actual capabilities (minus internal lies generated by corruption).
But I’ll read it just to find out how they’ll dress up propaganda as data. I assume those laughable congressional reports on the Chinese threat are based on something from academia after all.
Pretty huge to discount non-public information informing the congressional reports. The PLA can't be both a hopelessly corrupt paper tiger as well as impervious to spying.
This question can’t answered because the PLA can’t and won’t invade anyone. Those limited exercises they do around Taiwan is the most they can do in their current state. Russia is capable of invading another country; China doesn’t have that minimal capability.
Taiwan’s military is a joke, but as bad as Ukraine? We really can’t know. In terms of hardware they’re much better off but Ukraine at least had 10s of thousands of experienced troops, while Taiwan has ZERO. It’ll never be tested so we won’t know.
Taiwan has a vastly higher pool of manpower with basic military training with conscripted service of 1-2 years.
All Taiwan needs is enough rifles, ordnance, and the will to fight, and it goes without saying that Week 1 naval losses for the PLAN are going to be atrocious as the ROCA, ROCN, and ROCAF all maintain AShM capability from multiple vectors.
The PLA will likely quickly run out of effective numbers of Rotary Wing aircraft - it, more than not, is the one area where they fall behind numbers wise compared to Western and Russian forces
1-2 years? Last I heard it was something in the area of 4 months
>Russia is capable of invading another country
If I drive a car but proceed to crash it for the next 365 days and counting, does that really count as being capable of driving?
>Taiwan’s military is a joke
>source: my ass
>russia is capable of invading another country
>that other country with nearly 10 times the population and GDP and a manufacturing output 20 times bigger is incapable
What did anon mean by this?
Honestly the conflict would make the Ukraine look tame, there'd be over 100k casualties in the first 48 hours for the ROC and PLA
Aside from the Fifth column problem the ROC is only *just* beginning to assert itself and propagandize and renationalize the youth.
The ROC needs to put a rifle in the hands of a huge chunk of the male population between 16-55.
They can legit hold out esp. with allies but it's going to be fricking bloody.
The T91 needs further modernization.
The more MANPAD's the merrier.
Regardless of how many Destroyers, landing ships, and Amphibious Assault ships/Dock landing ships the PLA has - it is going to need a backwards Dunkirk where they sieze and utilize everything that can float.
Taiwan isn't tank country, the amount of casualties they can inflict on the PLANMC and the PLA attempting to organize post landing is limitless, but the capability for the ROC to win depends strongly on if they are ready for dog eat dog megacity combat in the Taipei and Tainan greater metro areas
Recent program on Chinese military TV.
>Immersively experience the scene of the People's Liberation Army crossing the sea and landing on the island! Hundreds of amphibious armored combat vehicles come with warships, and armed helicopters demonstrate new tactics!
After watching them bog the frick down on just beach fortifications, knowing they'd be shelled to frick, with no attempt at larger scale infantry waves just lying down in a fricking beach, I don't see how they'd managed honestly.
sure China can probably grab the big cities, and that’s even assuming that Taiwan will bother to defend them.
But then they’ll have to clear that rainforest.
Taiwan can be china’s Vietnam
That's insane, it's mostly jungle. So interesting.
Also note the complete lack of roads.
other way around. Cities will be where the fight is. Urban combat is crazy. A company of determined defenders holed up in a city block can tie up a whole brigade of attackers for a long time.
>Taiwan can be china’s Vietnam
They already had hundreds of those.
Except Vietnam had a friendly land border where supplies flowed freely. Taiwan doesn't produce enough food without imports. They can't feed a jungle army.
idk why people pretend taiwan is this unstormable fortress. Yes, it's not going to be without casualties. Yes, it's gonna be costly. But in the end the supply and logistics situation dictates the result.
People who say taiwan would win or china would never take taiwan are deluding themselves and others.
To visualize the numbers we're talking about here is like saying the entire EU couldn't invade belgium if belgium was an island in the north sea. It's like saying the the US couldn't invade fricking florida if it was floating in the caribbean.
And people bring up that the chinese are untrained and ill-equipped, and I ask again, how badly trained and ill-equipped would your army need to be to fail at taking taiwan? Russia in Ukraine would have to be the beacon of military success in comparison.
>To visualize the numbers we're talking about here is like saying the entire EU couldn't invade belgium if belgium was an island in the north sea. It's like saying the the US couldn't invade fricking florida if it was floating in the caribbean.
US and EU armies have both massive technological edges and a recent history of military campaigns. China has only done COIN recently and would be attempting the largest amphibious landing in history, without ever having performed anything even vaguely similar, against an adversary with a technological edge and numerous allies who could suddenly join the war.
Wait what, COIN? Where and when, please.
>idk why people pretend Ukraine is this unstormable fortress
I don't get your point. Ukraine has about 1/4 of its territory occupied dispite Russian incompetence and like 100 billion in military aid.
>dispite Russian incompetence
>heh, we have one corner of your fortress after a year (optimistically). Checkmate atheists
>can't even win a land war with Vietnam
>expects their gorillionth invasion of Taiwan to succeed
lol
lmao
this. not many people know how bad china got btfo by vietnam after vietnam
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2023-03-14/japan-new-missile-base-taiwan-9488188.html
PAC-2 and PAC-3s are deployed there as well as the Type 03 which has a 100% kill rate on super sonic maneuvering targets and is getting a software update to better intercept hypersonic missiles. For anti-ship missiles it has the Type 12.
Is there any difference between wilderness landings like D-Day vs. urban/suburban landings? So much of Taiwan's western coast is built up. 20 million people live in an area the size of Donbass.
No, fighting on an island is fundamentally different. They need the US Navy.
How big is Bakhmut again? The only way I see this working is if Taiwan is cut off, US Navy is totally out of the picture, etc, etc. That's disregarding sanctions and global trade embargoes the minute this kicks off.
Absolutely not. The moment it turns into urban fighting because the beaches were lost, it's over for Taiwan. It has to be decided in the air and sea before anything else.
Thats of course assuming they're bold enough to try an amphibious invasion rather than just blockading the island instead and missile-spamming the ever-living frick out of anything that moves. Taiwan isn't food nor energy secure whatsoever, and the more ships PLAN adds the more feasible this idea becomes.
Only the US and MAYBE Japan included would be able to prevent that. Hard to say though since China gets to laser-focus all their efforts on conquering Taiwan and bringing every available asset to bear and remain well within logistical reach of the mainland. The US can't do that because its attention and assets will be split across the globe and will have a much harder time with resupply efforts
And another thing. If we’re going to turn everything China has on paper to reality, then WHY are you people forgetting about the HUNDREDS of HQ-9B — S-300s with infrared and radar dual-mode seeker — they have on Type-052D and Type-055? These vessels are equipped with AESAs, and I believe GaNFET ones at that; Taiwan has FRICK all it can do against that, anything flying anywhere remotely near the island’s airspace above the radar horizon will get shot down. The shallow waters of the straits can’t hide any submarines, especially not with China’s likely very extensive hydrophone preparations and other ASW capabilities. Ballistic missiles, naval gun fire and aircraft will junk every single static SAM emplacement. Patriot PAC-3s are mainly anti-missile defensive systems and can be exploited by the directivity of their radars as seen in Saudi, nor can they deal with newer hypersonic ballistic and semi-ballistic vehicles. Of course, the massive 5th column on Taiwan has mapped out EVERY static military emplacement and facility to the 15th decimal on GPS so nothing will survive the initial bombardment with virtually NO way for Taiwan to replace in short order.
I don't believe Xi has the parts to actually invade. He's watching the RuAF get fricking mogged. Knowing the current state of the PLA, and the incredibly tough challenge of trying to pull off a contested amphibious landing, there's a very low chance of them being successful. Besides that, it would have profound effects on the global economy when anti-Chicoms embargo trade and have cheap manufacturing undercut when they sanction China. I'm sure they are perfectly happy using soft power to subvert and coerce the population in instilling a regime change. At any rate, Taiwan acts as a good scapegoat to drum up national support from time to time.
The fish stocks in the south china sea will be fully rejuvinated with the amount of chink food they will get.
>PLA is based on copying Russian IP which is based on copying American IP
>be ukraine
>illegal invasion of a sovereign nation results in international support
>be situated right between NATO and russia
>be so well connected to the west the literal son of the US president is working for my biggest gas and oil company
>material support is literally a day away from factories all over europe
meanwhile
>be taiwan
>not a sovereign nation, even my so called allies don't recognize me as a country
> thousands of miles of ocean between me and my potential allies
>half of my potential allies literally think communism is good and love the CCP
>communist china is europes biggest trading partner
>can literally see mainland china from my bedroom window
>can see the "civilian" shipbuilding industry through binoculars
>it would take half the amount of ships to blockade me compared to the cuban missile crisis
>even if we kill 100 chinese for every taiwanese soldier killed we'd still run out of manpower long before the chinese do.
Well you tell me Anon, do you think these scenarios are remotely comparable?
> thousands of miles of ocean between me and my potential allies
Japan.
>half of my potential allies literally think communism is good and love the CCP
Bullshit.
>communist china is europes biggest trading partner
Russia was Europe's biggest gas supplier before the war.
>japan
>so whats the distance between Taiwan and Tokyo (biggest naval base)?
And you're missing the point, just like US intelligence delivered us HD videos of russian convoys from staging to travelling to being destroyed, the chinese just need to look outside to see ships going to taiwan. It doesnt even take high tech surveillance equipment for that.
Now you might think "just put US flags on the ships" like the brits did in the falklands, but the official legal standpoint is that taiwan IS part of china. They are not a sovereign nation, therefore china is well within their rights to block any traffic from approaching taiwan WITHOUT that being an act of war.
Last but not least there is NO NATO in SEA. No government has signed any piece of paper with taiwan to assure mutual defense.
>Imagine it's D-Day, but it's 1942
>with a completely untrained US army
>no air superiority
>no naval superiority
>instead of Normandy you're landing directly in Kiel, Germany
>after the Germans know the exact beach you will land on
>with a population who think they're all going to be killed by the GIs if they succeed
>While Germany is allied with essentially the entire rest of the world
How do you think such an invasion would go, anon?
No. The Ukrainians spent 8 years fighting a civil war before the Russians invaded (again). Meanwhile the Taiwanese military crawls over rocks as a form of Potemkin training. Admittedly, it does actually have somewhat more practical use than breaking bricks with a headbutt, but ultimately is just bullshit for show.
>Potemkin training
Oooo. Someone watched a YouTube video!
>NOOOOOO YOU CAN'T JUST USE WORDS FOR WHAT THEY MEAN!!1
>The Ukrainians spent 8 years fighting a civil war
Except there was limited russian army presence. For example they're responsible for killing 300 Europeans in that plane.
Which means it wasn't a civil war.
>Admittedly, it does actually have somewhat more practical use than breaking bricks with a headbutt, but ultimately is just bullshit for show.
Do they jump through flaming hula hoops? You gotta do that at least because if gives you a +1 on your fire resistance stat.
Assuming you're being facetious, the small practical benefit of having them crawl on rocks is that there is a possibility of them having to actually crawl across a rocky beach whilst getting covered in spray and salty water from the ocean and such training does help mentally prepare someone for doing that to a degree. It's the same kind of logic behind pugil sticks or milling in the US and British military respectively, it's supposed to help you break any mental barrier surrounding aggression.
I was being facetious, that's interesting. Makes sense.
Hard to say. Theoretically they should be able to make the invasion extremely difficult, but I have no idea how they look like on the supply-side. Though I reckon the US and Japan would get involved pretty quickly in any case.
don't know
Honestly I don't know. Ukrainians have had an insane morale and they have been saved by Russia's corruption. China is not as corrupt (at least not cripplingly so) and I don't think Taiwanese morale is that high. Unless USA+Japan+SK+Australia intervenes in favor of Taiwan, they're royalty fricked.
>China is not as corrupt (at least not cripplingly so)
Imagine watching their impotent and self harming response to the wuhan coronavirus and still reaching that conclusion
>Imagine watching their impotent and self harming response to the wuhan coronavirus and still reaching that conclusion
I think they treated it more like something to attack in a war-like fashion and mobilizing the resources of a centralized state:
And the crunched the numbers and figured that doing the Wuhan lockdowns would cost them 10% of the economy but they would come out on top compared to letting it rip which would cost them more like 30%. Problem is that this is intolerable after two years and once the more viral (but less deadly) strains broke through their defenses.
>lockdowns would cost them 10% of the economy but they would come out on top compared to letting it rip which would cost them more like 30%
Lockdown have never been shown to be effective. Violent Lockdowns can only delay the inevitable. The population acquired no natural immunity and their vaccines are even less effective than ours. Don't you wonder why they aren't even collecting data on covid deaths anymore?
These tards think runways need to be disinfected.
It's all dogma, no actual critical thinking.
China didn't force experimental mRNA jab on their population, and they waited for the virus to weaken before reopening; everyone just got a bad flu and went back to work.
From what I see China did it smarter than the USA
>China didn't force experimental mRNA jab on their population
rofl, lmao
Brainwashed moron
Enjoy your experimental mRNA vax lol
>Implying the China vax wasn't experimental and forced on its population at gunpoint
It was a tradition vax, and China never had a vax mandate. Unlike the west. Ask some actual Chinese in china instead of repeating the same BS
>China never had a vax mandate.
What a tard
You can't read I guess
my country made vaccines "voluntary", but you would basically lose your job because the alternative was testing requirements, and all the testing locations only opened up after working hours. I can't imagine china of all places being less strict.
>Implying the China vax wasn't experimental
It's an inactivated vaccine, it's about as basic and traditional as it gets.
Okay, but I'm just saying, this is a totalitarian state that's capable of putting the brakes on the civilian economy if they choose to do so and shift into a war-like command mode. The guy who breaks quarantine is the villain in the movie about it and the men in white suits are the good guys:
?t=5340
If there was a war with Taiwan, China would go into a state of total war. That's my point here. I don't think it'd be nice Russia where they pretend they're not at war or try to half-ass it on the domestic side.
Could you do at least the minimum of research before you post? Like just at least being slightly informed about the topic at hand? Don't you remember the hordes of Chinese people that made it through the quarantines, travelled (even abroad) and bragged about it online? Why on earth are you referencing a movie?
adendum, the SICK people that made it through the quarantines
>I think they treated it more like something to attack in a war-like fashion and mobilizing the resources of a centralized state
That's not what they did from what I saw. At first they just put the lid on and denied it existed (due to their moronic system of governance where local officials will be punished in case of bad events like these happening), which just increased the magnitude of the problem. Then they schizophrenically over and under-reacted, having draconic lockdowns but then declaring (way too soon) that they had defeated the virus, after which they held events that contributed to the spread (Wuhan pool party). After that it was draconic lockdowns until recently when the people had to start to actually rebel to have them cease that nonsense
Hong Kong kinda spooked the Taiwanese chinks but they have an even bigger 5th column problem than Ukraine in the form of the KMT who may well just win the next elections.
Taiwan is less like Ukraine and more like the Afghan government if anything, the US can try to theorize on how to resist the Mainland and try to incentivize good reforms in the army but they have showed very little will to fight in case of a conflict so far and given how China isn't going to invade any time soon it all depends on how China plays the influence game or in the case of an invasion, how it plays during the early days of the war.
If China plays it well it can probably just snatch up Taiwan because the US is horrible at playing the influence game in Taiwan, if it keeps going full Wolf warrior autismo and gives the Taiwanese more reasons to be afraid then it can alienate Taiwan enough for peaceful unification to no longer be an option.
In the case of an invasion, if it can pull off a quick and smooth one while minimalizing civilian casualties Taiwan could very well just fold rather easily ANA style. If it goes bucha on their ass then we'll likely see the switch being flipped with even previously pro-CCP Taiwanese actually resisting in which case the buck passes to the US and it's all up to their response.
There are a lot of different ways this could play out and nothing is really written yet. Mostly it depends on what China does and whether or not the US is ready to jump on the opportunity if they make mistakes.
>china is not as corrupt
you're a fricking idiot.
China is less corrupt than the US.
They don't pay fricking 100k$ for toilet seat or 1000$ for a coffee mug
Yeah but it's still wrong to say china is not corrupt, you're an idiot.By that metric, we got abortion through. In china, there is no legislative power by that metric. Again, you're a massive massive moron and your next post will be really fricking stupid.
When did I say China is not corrupt ?
It is corrupt, just less so than the US.
US is better than China at narratives and perceptions management, so The US can afford more corruptions.
Still wrong. I can say biden is a child rapist Black person lover and nothing will happen to me. But if I posted anything about dear leader on we-chat my family would go missing.
US can be corrupt because they made it legal, just look at donations and lobbying and how everyone is in someone’s pocket. Same reason they can commit war crimes and human rights offenses, by playing with semantics and legalizing crimes. It’s literally how they “lowered” civilian casualty in afghan war for example. When you rule the world, you make the rules, it’s that simple
I'm not saying China is not corrupt, I'm saying not at the level of Russia. Russia was supposed to have a modern, high-tech army but turns out the money for every project has been stolen and siphoned into mansions and yachts, and even the elite forces were left with aging Soviet weapons and buying their own gear form the civilian market. Chinese officials aren't outright stealing the money, they might cheap out, charge more than needed, get kickbacks, but at the end the troops are getting their gear and new weapons, that's what matters.
You got the numbers to back that up?
no sources
obviously not
PLA efforts to storm islands in the Kinmen strait have been mixed at best, though a lot has changed since the 1950s.
Taipei is pretty heavily fortified, so all the scenarios I've seen where the PLAN sail into the harbor for a decapitation strike rely heavily on stealth. The problem there is that it's hard to be particularly sneaky when the coastlines are only about 100 miles from each other.
The mountains, forests, and eastern beaches would be a pretty tough target for amphibious marines or paratroopers, so the most tempting target would be the flat plain and sandy beaches of the southwest. The catch there is that they'd almost certainly have to take out the Penghu islands first or risk missile attacks against the PLAN fleet, and Penghu's permanent garrison is something like 60,000 men. That's a tough nut to crack.
Could the PLA throw enough resources at Taiwan to try to brute-force capitulation? Maybe, but they'd have to go all in on an operation that's not a guaranteed success. The risk of a potential debacle is probably the biggest deterrent for Xi.
>"Now, it seems like we are in the same critical period as the “horses were drinking water” in the Yangtze River days in the revolutionary era, as long as we resolve the United States problem at one blow, our domestic problems will all be readily solved. Therefore, our military battle preparation appears to aim at Taiwan but in fact is aimed at the United States, and the preparation is far beyond the scope of attacking aircraft carriers or satellites." — Defense Minister Gen. Chi Haotian (2003)
Red China has only one play: nuclear submarine glassing from uninterruptible, suicidal short range. Western allied standoff range can shit on any landing or blockade force at its leisure. They have no other option, and Xigger's made his position for life stand or fall on "resolving the Taiwan question" in his lifetime. They released a bioweapon resulting in 1.6 deaths in the USA (on top of excess mortality cascades) and closer to 7 million world wide. Archduke Shinzo Abe died for you non-sex having sins. It's WW3 for three years now. The question will be "will cruise missile annihilation of every dam in CCP land suffice for deterrance?" It should, then again Japan & Taiwans half century of nuclear energy cooperation may have to turn into open nuclear powers to drive the point home. Red China can contract peacefully over the next generation to a quarter of its population thanks to its own stupid, evil action, or it can drop to zero with expedited extreme prejudice. These cargo cultists can frick around and find out -- it just may cost Taiwan or Japan millions in glassed murdered.
If the PLAN’s HQ-9Bs (don’t know if HHQ-9 is literally the same, the B variant has a dual-mode radar/infrared seeker) work nearly as well as Western naval air defense systems (ie, SM-6, ESSM, Aster, etc) then Taiwan has zero, nothing, which can defeat a Chinese landing op crossing the Strait.
I doubt the ability of the Chinese (Communist) to pull off an invasion in the face of stiff and persistent Chinese (not Communist) resistance. My chief concern is going to be whether or not the Taiwanese will just roll over. It's possible their military is like Russia's, a paper tiger with little will to fight, or ability to fight. If that's the case it might not matter how bungled the attempted landings are.
>It's possible their military is like Russia's
Taiwan may have a lot of problems including CCP infiltrators as well as native turncoats, but I'd say that their equipment likely works and troops are reasonably well trained. I think their main challenge is just the sheer numbers involved with fighting China. The whole Island has 23 million people, Beijing alone has 24.
I don't want to turn this into a euro sphere shtitfest but wouldn't Swedish Gotland class submarines be perfect for Taiwan? Near dead silent short range subs.
I'm not familiar with naval warfare so I can't say. I can say that Chinese people are terrible on the water and can't swim.
Right, so a bunch of silent but short range subs would basically lock down the water between mainland Chyna and Taiwan. Add some land based anti ship missiles and Taiwan should be golden.
The question is can China spam boats faster than they can be shot down. Even if they can't, what happens when the strait is filled with enough sunken Chinese materiel to build an isthmus to Taiwan?
>The question is can China spam boats faster than they can be shot down
China absolutely can on paper. Question is why you would commit such an atrocity on yourself *looks at Chinese demographics* oh no. Xi Jinping is going to solve the aging male population by just getting rid of them in a war isn't he?
>Question is why you would commit such an atrocity on yourself *looks at Chinese demographics*
I'm not saying attempting to take Taiwan is a good idea, but China (and Xi specifically) seems intent on restoring their Qing Dynasty borders with little regard to practicality. Hong Kong was much more valuable left to its own devices, but the CCP decided to accelerate its mainlandification anyway.
The smartest way to launch the invasion would be to send old people as the first waves to soak up ammo before sending trained soldiers in, but that would make too much sense for Xi to do and Boomers are the demographic that actually drinks the CCP kool-aid.
Hong Kong didn't have a military to speak of and no foreign support, Taiwan does.
I wasn't using Hong Kong as an example to parallel Taiwan, but to speculate on the CCP's decision making. Hong Kong had a robust economy and was generally willing to give China a cut in exchange for being left alone. As the CCP has tightened its hold, businesses and investors have left the city. China has achieved no tangible benefit from what they've done with Hong Kong in the last decade.
I'm just saying there's a difference between military action in Hong Kong and Taiwan. One is just fricking yourself over financially and the other is making you North Korea 2.0.
The point is that the CCP is willing to frick itself over for ideological goals. Also, there's a very real possibility that we wouldn't be able to sustain sanctions on China even if they did become a pariah. They've become a huge part of the global supply chain and we still haven't found a good substitute. Consider how much political backlash that is growing in the US is growing over Ukraine, despite how cost effective our aid to them has been. A war with China would have far more devastating economic impacts on the average American.
>Consider how much political backlash that is growing in the US is growing over Ukraine
Where?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/support-for-ukraine-aid-softens-in-u-s-public-poll-says
>The poll of 1,068 adults
Come now
1068 data points is a perfectly valid sample size and can yield statically robust results.
Pew did a sample of 5,000 and got similar results
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/31/as-russian-invasion-nears-one-year-mark-partisans-grow-further-apart-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/
The Chinese army has similar corruption issues as the Russian army so I doubt a naval invasion will work out great