When this bridge gets destroyed completely, how long will Crimea last in Russian control? Will Ukraine be able to siege them out?
When this bridge gets destroyed completely, how long will Crimea last in Russian control?
When this bridge gets destroyed completely, how long will Crimea last in Russian control? Will Ukraine be able to siege them out?
OP is close enough to puccia to use barges. It's gonna be a logistic clusterfuck and a HR hole in the ass but not a Battle of the Atlantic.
how will be barges cope with the deadly sea-doos?
>Naval battles in the azov sea, ziggers burning alive, ...
>where are the dolphins?
idk other than kino
>Tubular waves brah, check this out, I call it the bridge slam
>deadly sea-doos?
you had one job, anon
How dangerous is a two man jetski and a javelin?
awwww yeah time to get some naval warfare back on the menu
good thing they sunk the ferrys they could have used instead of the bridge
But what about the civilians? How are they gonna supply them?
NTA, but I have a sneaking suHispanicion that the Russian military has priority for virtually all the capacity of the (much quicker) Kerch rail cargo, and civilian resupply has already been relegated to cargo ships through ports on the water. The big question is what the capacity of those ports are, and what the turnaround is to load and unload supplies from Russia compared to sending rail cars.
If cargo by water was that viable of an alternative, I think the RF would have tried to hold onto Kherson longer instead of organizing a retreat after the hit last year. Without rail they can try to make up the slack by other means, but it looks like the best they can do is to keep resupply trickling into fortified defensive positions; it just stops their offensive capacity cold.
Civilians?
They were all volunteers in defense of the motherland and fought to the last man, woman and child to protect the land bridge to mainland Ukraine!
>barges
>in waters covered by anti-ship missile batteries and swimming with USVs
Excellent! Send the Tuvan degenerate my regards!
They sunk the barges to protect the bridge.
It's been closed pretty much every day now. I think they're running trains over it but road traffic is minimal now.
They didn't have a choice to sink the barges see
Those barges were already sinking due to mines. Russians with their damage control is retarded. Why would Russians sink fucking barges? Did you guys actually think this through?
Russians have lost Crimea until they take robotnik back
... Ukrainians are just mining it man.
It's not that deep of water. Russians are already losing Crimea to insurgents. It's Slavic Fallujah. Every day a dozen or so Russian soldiers get murdered and every week a bombing blows up some police center.
Anyways if the Ukrainians choose to blow it up, Russians can't use barges because Ukrainian will keep floating mines down River that plant. Losing robotnik meant Ukrainians cut off Crimea because nothing can go in or out with being blown up or running into a mine most of the time.
Why do you think the Russians just decided to sink barges off the bridges? The barges were already ruined from mines. Russians couldn't even get them back to Russian safety
Couldn’t they make “drones” out of the still floating Soviet hulks and beach them onto Ukraine territory (do they still have beach territory I saw those videos of the wahman sunbathing during the war). They would be billions to clean them up after the war. 2 birds one stone get rid of the environmental issues of the old ships an block a port or mess up the beaches also. Or the can just sink a big line of them and put a road on top.
Too heavy.
Why would Ukraine want Crimea? It's full of Russians.
Not for long it isn't.
You can ethnically cleanse places if you're on the winning side
See: Poland, Baltics, Czechs, Russia, France, China etc
>ethnically cleanse
No, the word you're looking for is "deportation". Every Russian national in Crimea has illegally occupied the sovereign territory of another nation, and telling them to GTFO is upholding international law, not breaking it.
That's not true. A lot of them are Crimean natives who speak Russian and have loyalty to Russia. People with dual citizenship might get deported after the war. The best option would be to scare them into fleeing to Russia on their own and then refusing to let them back in the country.
Crimean tatars were mistreated by russia you dumb sack of shit
They either accept ukrainian citizenship, or get deported as illegal immigrants.
Ah, the good old Croatian option.
i have an autistic prediction here, but since the UN has said they have zero proof of any genocide committed by Russia, the controversary when Ukraine takes Crimea will be accusations of pillaging and genocide (by ukrainians, that is). genocide for me, but not for thee
Who cares about the UN? Among the only countries which really matter, everyone is sick and tired of Russia's shit. Nobody will care about the poor Russian civilians, just like nobody cared about the plight of the Serbs. If Ukraine ever retakes Crimea of course, which is still one hell of a long shot IMO.
>the UN has said they have zero proof of any genocide committed by Russia
That isn't what they said you zigger shill
>Why would Ukraine want Crimea? It's full of Russians.
For now.
I think half the shit they're pulling in Crimea is about making Russians want to leave.
Afterwards, they'll just not recognise real estate contracts and titles under Russian administration and deport anyone with a Russian passport (who doesn't immediately identify as Ukrainian and say they were forced to get it, which might be legit).
They will bring the Crimean Tatars back forst of all, russians can go to the fucking gnomish autonomous oblast
One of the arguments against destroying the bridge, is that is Crimea is threatened enough, Russiofascists will use that bridge to fuck off back to Russia. They will ethnically cleanse themselves, if you leave them a way out.
There's a fuckload of Crimean Tatars that want their homes back after getting forced out in 2014
Looks like vicious torturing psychotic insurgent warfare is back on the menu boys!
>vicious torturing psychotic insurgent warfare
I think they're a different kind of muslim to the snackbars.
Will be kino to see Tartar muslims vs Kadyrovite Chechens though.
Sea border, there’s oil and gas offshore.
I, for one, cannot wait for the day.
We all know it’s going to happen sooner or later. Whether it’s another truck bomb, a sea drone, or whatever else. Maybe by the end of the year, maybe next year, but it’s coming.
And the autistic REEEing by pucciya will be legendary. A whole month of furious third worlders gnashing teeth and destroying keyboards, screaming about war crimes and perfidy. Can’t fucking wait.
It's weird how they haven't destroyed it by now. Surely there's no reason for them to wait all this time. Also isn't it supposed to be near useless by now? Every time an attack happens everyone says the bridge will take months to fix. With all these attacks surely it's been down the entire time.
My guess is that while the road spans are fucked, the adjacet rail bridge is still intact and operational, and thats the real prize.
The first bombing did leave the rail bridge fucked for several months.
>Surely there's no reason for them to wait all this time.
Apparently, there is?
And, stop calling me Shirley.
>It's weird how they haven't destroyed it by now.
It's hundreds of miles away limiting the weapons that can be used. Drone boats have to travel hundreds of miles around Crimea undetected and air drones have to fly over the front lines undetected to reach it.
The road/train spans are a rather easy fix all things considered. What they actually need to destroy are the foundation piles underwater. Without them, preferably in multiple locations, the bridge is probably fucked.
A ship rigged with 30 million tons of TNT?
A blast a the magnitude of 2.9 kilotons was enough to obliterate most of Halifax along with killing 1.7k people in 1917, you could probably pop the bridge with a good bit less.
Thanks for the pic, Anon -- I've been wondering about the carrying capacity of that rail link for months and this is the first time I've seen any figures on how much it can transport. Check my math if you like:
> 1 tonne = 1,000 kg
> 12 million tonnes/ year & 94 trains per day = 350 tonnes of cargo per train, 32,900 tonnes a day
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/30/russia-military-logistics-supply-chain/
"On average, each Russian soldier goes through about 440 pounds of supplies a day, including food, fuel, ammunition, medical support and more." = 200 kg/man/day, or 5 soldiers supplied per tonne.
So my back of the envelope calculation is that at their theoretical max capacity (94 trains per day running 24/7, each train packed 100% full, Berlin-Airlift-mode well-oiled-machine logistics to maximize throughput with zero fuckups or delays in unloading) the capacity is 164,500 soldiers supplied per day.
Again, that's my most generous blue-sky assumption for the RF, and assuming that civilians are all evacuated or supplied by other vectors or something. If the the Kerch train goes down for ONE HOUR, that's four trains that don't deliver cargo and 7,000 guys who -- without fuel or arty shells -- are just mouths to feed without real combat potential. (Of course, that's hand-to-mouth and they have stockpiles built up, but still.) If the Russians lose Tokmak, they'll need to beef up motor transport along surface streets near the coastline just to keep hanging on.
>When this bridge gets destroyed completely, how long will Crimea last in Russian control?
My guess is that if they lose the rail link completely, they've got a few weeks of supplies warehoused during which they can either try to get Crimea resupplied by water or start evacuating Russian nationals at 38,352 passengers per day. Any anon got better data on this?
Absolutely based autistic and criminal nobody is replying
>"On average, each Russian soldier goes through about 440 pounds of supplies a day, including food, fuel, ammunition, medical support and more." = 200 kg/man/day, or 5 soldiers supplied per tonne
That had to be a gross over estimate.
Maybe if you're including BMPs and artillery in that weight allowance then it averages out but there's no way a mobik in a trench gets 200kg of supplies per day.
I'm not sure they get anything most days, they're complaining about having to buy their own food.
That seems to be everything including fuel to get him his rotting MRE etc.
The article seems to be giving an average for total expendables (fuel, ammo, food, water, etc.) over all troops, yeah. BMP and replacement tanks not included, and vehicle/munition resupply is its own hurdle.
One BTG at full strength needs something like 3 food trucks and 5 water trucks to give 10 days of field operations, but if you look at army resupply as a whole the vast majority of the weight being transported is ammo, arty shells in particular. A single 152/155mm shell runs somewhere in the neighborhood of 100lbs/50kg, and this conflict has entered a very artillery-heavy phase. If the rail line at EITHER Kerch or Tokmak gets definitively cut for more than a few days, I don't believe there's going to be enough Scooby vans to pick up the slack for the RuAF.
Losing both rail lines? Exponentially worse for their situation. They can hold out for a bit on stockpiles before they have to make some hard decisions.
blowing up the foundations requires too many explosives.
it's much easier to blow up the top of the arches.
Does Russia still allow fuel, LPG, fertilizer or large arsenal warships ships under there?
Asking for a friend...
Nice try budanov
>Nice try
It will be, when pic-rel goes full lock sideways and the arriving [redacted] make EverGiven look like minor parking lot scuff.
>Russians on lookout for Uke warships or drones
>totally unaware that SBU contracted three weeks ago with Evergreen
>Does Russia still allow fuel, LPG, fertilizer or large arsenal warships ships under there?
It has a maximum clearance of 35m I think so big ships can't go through at all, that's kind of the point of it, to cut off Mariupol, Berdansk and Melitopol from the Black Sea.
Why can't Ukraine just send some underwater demolition team to blow up the pillars?
>Why can't Ukraine just send some underwater demolition team to blow up the pillars?
Because it's a very long way from Ukraine, it would take them a week to get there, assuming they made it through Russian patrolled Crimean coastlines alive. And getting back would be just as hard making it nearly a suicide mission with little chance of success.
Far easier to use drones and missiles.
Idea, commercial mini-sub running on electrical power with a 1-2 man crew.
Equipment would be rock drills, TNT, and a few timed fuses with a remote trigger as a fallback.
Pull up, surface, drill into the concrete in 4 spots along each pillar, slot the TNT in good and deep, set timers, then run.
>why not just send a drone?
Setting off the TNT within the pillar would create the same sort of pressure you see in commercial mining operations, causing the concrete to shatter.
A drone wouldn't be able to achieve this.
>Pull up, surface, drill into the concrete in 4 spots along each pillar
There's heavy reinforcement in the centre of the piller, it's almost more rebar than concrete.
If you get it underneath, the support pylons are much thinner but there's a lot more of them and you benefit from water incompressibility.
Use something like a rock-climbing bolt-gun to attach charges to the pylons.
You'll need a lot though.
>A drone wouldn't be able to achieve this
I think a drone could but it would probably need to be remote operated (cable to surface buoy antenna) but that would be jammable/detectable.
>If you get it underneath, the support pylons are much thinner but there's a lot more of them and you benefit from water incompressibility.
Use something like a rock-climbing bolt-gun to attach charges to the pylons.
Now that I think about it, how thick ARE the underwater pillars?
Perhaps a thermite charge per beam would be enough given it can combust under water.
>Perhaps a thermite charge per beam would be enough given it can combust under water.
Only if you could place it inside the pylon and if you can do that, you can just cut them.
The problem is that the ocean is a perfect heat sink with limitless capacity, it would just suck all the heat right out of the thermite fire and the hot water would rise and be replaced with cold water that immediately continues the cycle.
but isn't this the kind of mission SOF loves to do? hard, high risk of death, nearly suicidal, extreme reward and bragging rights that they took down the bridge and fucked crimea? cant we import some american ex-seals or something? either they pull it off or we get less retards
>hard, high risk of death, nearly suicidal, extreme reward and bragging rights that they took down the bridge and fucked crimea?
Fuck no.
SOF likes to strike unexpectedly, with little or no chance of resistance against an unprepared and unwitting enemy.
They also like a fast in and out, not two weeks hazardous sea journey through enemy waters and the same back again except now they really know you're there.
And only SEALs do it for the bragging rights.
hold up are you saying videogames lied to me?
I would never say those words anon.
Yes
Bideo vames will always lie to you
It is all about timing. Blowing it up now gives your enemy time to improvise instead of repairing it for minor damage. Blowing it up when you capture Tokmak will give your enemy a dilemma. It now have no way of supplying with rails. Do I fix the bridge or do I move it via sea/trucks? It would be a strategic double tap so to speak.
Dumb take, blowing up the bridge would had been decisive years ago. You're stuck on current events, thinking it's the most important thing ever. But the earlier they blow the bridge the better Ukraine's position would had been. For example, if they blew it up last year Kherson wouldn't even be occupied.
>But the earlier they blow the bridge the better Ukraine's position would had been. For example, if they blew it up last year Kherson wouldn't even be occupied
All true but the second best time to blow it up is now.
I'm not an expert but I think bridges are extremely hard to destroy
6 months from when its fully down until the russians leave.
It's more valuable to leave it intact but damaged.
That way you can monitor what's coming into Crimea and take up huge amounts of air defence protecting it.
A but of damage to restrict the volume of goods is fine.
But eventually you want to leave the Russians (civilian and military) a route to escape that more favourable than standing their ground. .
short answer is yes
Two weeks.
time for giga pontoons
You do realize Russia was in full control of Crimea for years before that bridge was even built? Rabotino on the other hand, Russia wouldn't last a fortnight without that colossal hyperfortress.
The difference is that Russia didn't need to support Crimea without a bridge during wartime
>wasted an army corps worth men and material
proof?
The secret technique of "making it the fuck up."
Just fuck you pajeets. Russians are cut off because of the mines. Putin is doing his crazy shit with grain trying to get them to back off because it's that bad. Do you pajeets need it all spoonfed to you. You get like Jesus could walk on water and Cnn would report an opinion piece Jesus can't swim and we all should be worried right? This war is all but over now. It's just the siege of saint Petersburg now as Russians die if shelling, disease and starvation trapped by their own defenses whule Russia is getting Sherman marched via airports and the sheridan burning down the shanadoah valley is being done with a Calvary of drones destroying everything.
Just sit back and watch. It's going to be boring for everyone else and constant death and starvation for Russians then Indians and Chinese just like after the CSA fell all their backers relying on food and metals from the CSA had mass misery
And you may find yourself living in an old steel plant
And you may find yourself fighting the entire second world
And you may find yourself at the helm of a Panzerkampfwagen
And you may find yourself in a beautiful field with a beautiful sky
And you may ask yourself "Well, how did I get here?"
Letting two weeks go by, water holding Moskva down
Letting two weeks go by, vatniks rotting in the ground
Into HIMARS abyss
After Iskanders gone
Two Slavic reichs time
Mobiks rotting in the ground
And you may ask yourself "Blyad, Wie schieße ich?"
And you may ask yourself "Where is that large fleet of Armatas?"
And you may tell yourself "This is not Russia, Russen Raus!"
And you may tell yourself "This is not my blood on my knife"
Letting two weeks go by, water holding kerch bridge down
Letting two weeks go by, VDV falling to the ground
Into Gepards abyss
After Wagner has gone
Two Slavic reichs time
Mobiks rotting in the ground
>when your 50kg payload chinesium drones can't take down a shitty bridge
Will someone give these subhumans a guided bomb? Anything, optical, laser, infra red, praying to St. Pidorashka, inertial guidance, a fucking V1 missile.
Jesus how hard is it to explode a bridge when Soviet AA has proven useless time and time again.
What Air Force doing?
You wouldn't want to provoke the Russian bear now would you?
supplying troops with ships is not this hard, but no more vacation and population would be starving
>supplying troops with ships is not this hard, but no more vacation and population would be starving
Supply by sea doesn't look all that easy, either. Anything that can be done to the Moskva can be done to a cargo ship, and losing just one means writing off a whole lot of supplies. Using the Russian-flagged vessel "Azov" (IMO: 9156204, MMSI 273398130) as an example, since a bunch of the general cargo ships in the area have similar specs, a 140m ship has a deadweight of around 6200 tonnes, so 17-18 Kerch trains worth of supplies.
Even when cargo shipping isn't sunk, the turnaround to unload and distribute is going to be slower than rail transit. That means if a unit in the field urgently needs ammo or medical equipment or fuel or whatever, there's going to be more lag, and by the time it arrives there's a chance it will be too late.
Picking this exact moment to allow the grain deal to expire and painting a target on Russian shipping may go down as one of Putin's most definitive unforced errors in this whole clusterfuck of an SMO.
>Picking this exact moment to allow the grain deal to expire and painting a target on Russian shipping may go down as one of Putin's most definitive unforced errors in this whole clusterfuck of an SMO
I don't think Ukraine's going to renew it either. They won't outright reject it but all of Putin's demands will be considered too high a price for it.
And third party nations will just ignore it and continue to ship grain because the last thing Russia needs is more enemies.
Agreed, though I'm thinking more in terms of Putin painting himself into a corner by saying that cargo ships are now valid targets. The RuAF will need resupply by sea if rail logistics take another hit (and it looks like that hit might happen sooner rather than later).
>but Anon, what about airlifting supplies?
Russia has already shown some problems with their airlifting capabilities, and last weeks drone-based dunk on some of their remaining Ilyushin Il-76s won't help matters at all. Losing one or both of the rail conduits isn't an instant "Game Over" button, but I'd be willing to say it definitely rules out any possibility of a Russian advance, and probably means they can only hold out so long before they have to retreat en masse to their own territory.
>supplying troops with ships is not this hard,
Yes, in a world where western anti-ship missiles do not exist 🙂
>western anti-ship missiles
I guess Ukrainian anti-ship missiles are technically western anti-ship missiles these days.
I live in Crimea and drove through that bridge couple of times.
Btw, fuck urine and their gnomish overlords.
Better pack up and leave pidor
What is your illness? I heard they even take retards and HIV-positive now.
I fail to understand why are you not on the frontline.
>slav
>complains about illness
hitler extermination round 2 coming for you bro
bro, lets see if NATO breaks first line of defense (lmao).
NATO hasn't done anything but send supplies.
If NATO were militarily involved, Putin would already be dead and Russia woukd have been forced to retreat.
>If NATO were militarily involved, Putin would already be dead and Russia woukd have been forced to retreat.
Like in Afghanistan?
600 days ago every russian thought they could take europe. they can't even take a neighbor without getting raped.
Russian ziggers probably shouldn't invoke Afghanistan.
>u.s. provides ally with embedded a few hundred operators and air strikes
>taliban quickly lose power and flee to the mountains
>the actual goal of killing bin Laden and a lot of Al Qaedas higher ups completed.
>U.S. pulls out and Taliban moves in
So the Russian military quickly collapses, all of Russia's major government officials will be hunted like vermin, imprisoned or executed. While vatniks hide out in caves hoping NATO leaves?
Keep calming yourself with that.
More like in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. They're located on Russia's doorstep, Medvedev and others have unironically claimed they're rightful Russian clay, and they're a hell of a lot smaller in size than Ukraine.
What single factor best explains Putin's willingness to violate Russia's obligations in the Budapest Memorandum rather than go after that smaller, more easily managed territory in the Baltics?
>NATO hasn't done anything but send supplies.
>If NATO were militarily involved, Putin would already be dead and Russia woukd have been forced to retreat.
Actually NATO themeslves have done nothing but offer some vague warning about how a nuclear strike against Ukraine would be seen as a nuclear strike
NATO as an organization is defensive, and does little. Countries which are part of NATO have agreed to send aid to Ukraine but that is a decision of each nation. This is also why it's so hard to send armaments, since there's no official treaty and wasn't a system in place to send in what aid or when. For instance, if Poland or Baltics were invaded by Russia, there would be an immediate response and we would know exactly what to ship and arm those states with immediately because it's part of NATO.
Still mad about HIMARS huh? I see it hanging in your cartoon, but the ruskies never killed one
first line of defense in a war of aggression you started by the way
i seriously can't take vatniks seriously whatsoever anymore, i've become immune to demoralization
i'm fully moralized and laughing my ass off at this whole thing
>i'm fully moralized and laughing my ass off at this whole thing
I've been having a chuckle over the vatnik goalpost-moving on "first main line of defenses"
>line of contact didn't count
>miles of mined terrain and pre-sighted arty didn't count
>that settlement was on the "zero line", not the first
>Russians are counterattacking in the "crumple zone"
>it's called a "crumple zone" because it trades space for time
>the tank ditch didn't count
>the row of dragons teeth didn't count
>t-the fighting positions in trenches behind all that are still contested
I fully expect them to claim in a few months that since further field fortifications remain behind the Surovikin Line, the Russians are still retreating too slowly for it to be called a Ukrainian victory.
>that's not the REAL first line of defense
Basically. Yeah Ukraine is at the 2nd line.
For what purpose would you troll PrepHole with such obvious lies?
Do you just enjoy people hating you?
I really live in Crimea, why would I lie about that?
Because you're so starved of affection that people insulting you is the best attention that you can get in your life and you'll take it because hateful attention is at least other humans acknowledging your existence, which otherwise never happens for you.
Its all true, but it doesn't mean I lie about residing in Crimea. I have lived here whole my life, since 1993.
not gonna lie, this post reeks of plebbit
You're wrong to mock reddit, aside from anything else there's huge overlap because Reddit is a better source of knowledge than PrepHole. And it has its own meme factories too.
They're complementary, not competitive.
it's sad how far PrepHole has fallen. reddit over the decade has slowly just been a better source for recent news.
Can't they just hire a dominatrix and get it out of their system, or something?
>Can't they just hire a dominatrix and get it out of their system
That costs money and oddly, dominatrixes are the most expensive sex workers even though you often don't fuck them.
I suppose because they put more effort into it than a whore that just lies there and gets fucked.
I suppose having someone call you retarded on the internet is something we all get for free at least once or twice.
Still, quality has to be better than quantity, right?
>Still, quality has to be better than quantity, right?
Definitely but when you don't have that option, I guess you have to make do with a handful of (You)s from people calling you pidor and rashist.
Better than nothing if the alternative is to be utterly ignored by even the anons of PrepHole.
yeah man you totally live in crimea. post a timestamp or you're just another fake fag.
How will timestamp help you?
I can make a photo of my russian passport, but you morons cant read russian anyway.
alright cool fake fag. glad we came to the same conclusion gay lol.
>why would someone lie on the internet?
really
yes. Post Osama.
Then savor the memory of those drives. And of living in temporarily occupied Crimea. *~~*~~*~~)
59461827
blah blah blah (you) are a fag we get it