What exactly is the point of "announcing" or declaring a counteroffensive?
Did the Allies announce D-Day before it happened? Did the Germans announce Ardennes? Did the Soviets announce Bagration or Uranus to the world when they started?
What exactly is the point of "announcing" or declaring a counteroffensive?
Did the Allies announce D-Day before it happened? Did the Germans announce Ardennes? Did the Soviets announce Bagration or Uranus to the world when they started?
No, but the nature of media and OPSEC was very different back then. Now you have every moron with a phone posting pictures of things and twattering about how cool this offensive is going to be.
There is also the propaganda angle. Could be easier to get money and equipment out of people when "we're getting ready for the final battle"!
doesn't make any difference really, this operation will last several weeks or months. it's not like the russians won't find out its happening.
>this operation will last several weeks or months
Kek, no, it's already over, russians will be slaughtering straggling remnants for a few days
Russians would disagree.
>a handful of soldiers retreated to avoid casualties
Vatnikbros, it's over.
>Let's leave these figures to those who want to read about the destroyed regiments once a day and not think.
>even after the issues began with the requested artillery
Russians themselves are chastising their own propaganda. They're having to retreat in the face of superior forces while morons online screech about how the offensive has failed spectacularly and jerk off to the same three clips of a handful of burning vehicles.
The point is, the propaganda and simping on both sides is cringey as frick. I'm only interested in figuring out what's going on and right now it's been two days with one side keeping its lips sealed.
>They're having to retreat in the face of superior forces
Source?
Literally says it in the Grayzone translation here. Try reading next time.
Yes he's talking about a particular area of the front and not the entire front line but between what other Russian mil bloggers are confirming the Ukrainians have already successfully taken territory. Whether they can exploit the holes they've made in the Russian defenses and hold their gains is yet to be seen. It's too early and we have way too little information to make any declaration about failure or success.
So your source is propaganda. Got it.
>Russians themselves are chastising their own propaganda.
Is that supposed to be a bad thing?
>They're having to retreat in the face of superior forces
In a single skirmish which involved a couple dozens combatants on both sides. A glorious triumph of the Ukrainian military, truly living to the five month long hype of the million-strong Kherson counteroffensive.
I mean, you accuse "morons online" of jerking off to a handful of burning vehicles, while jerking off to a fighting retreat of a handful of Russian infantrymen in the very same post. What does it make you?
I'm not jerking off to the idea that some random Russian unit had to retreat in a localized attack. I'm only providing the counters to the moronic "immediately failed offensive" and "1,500 hohols slaughtered" nonsense.
You can see this post for further clarification on what I mean.
The problem was the only semi reliable source was Ukraine since Russia keeps just outright lying like it's 1984 bizarro world
Now the Ukies are keeping quiet I only have bizzarro world Russian propaganda telling me they killed 9000% of the Ukie airforce four times over.
>only semi reliable source was Ukraine
Kek, are you really this moronic?
Ah yes, I suppose video and sat evidence is comparable to slava z NO PLANES WERE DAMAGES
I forgot
No, you're just moronic.
Not even Russians trust Russian media, anon.
Do you honestly believe that Russia lies less than anyone else? When they constantly change their story five times in a week because they keep being proven wrong? Yeah, no shit, Ukraine paints a rosy picture of the war but they've been far better than Russia. You have to take all of it with a grain of salt. You just have to take Russia's word with a whole bag of salt.
Everything is propaganda to some degree. Grayzone at least is trying to provide sensible takes unlike most Russian propaganda. They're a useful counter at least because they're still pro-Russian but are perfectly happy to reject their own side's propaganda.
>Everything is propaganda
Good thing you choose which propaganda is best.
Or maybe you're just a moron.
Look man, if you want to believe Russia has killed 1,500 Ukrainians in two days and that two days is enough time to determine the whole operation is a failure, that's on you. Good luck. You're choosing which propaganda is best just as much as I am. The conflict is convincing others that they're wrong. I'm just trying to be as objective about information as I can.
He's fishing for (you)s, and you keep obliging him... just stop bro..
new interrogation technique
That's from the reverse side of the medal telegram. Overall, those guys are relatively chill with propaganda. They actually have an interesting track record with other conflicts and some of their interviews are genuinely fascinating. In a 2021(?) interview, the leader of the group comes across like a remnant from another age: "War is terrible, we want to show that. If you still want to join us, good. But we don't get paid much. Slava Poccia."
So when they post something critical of propaganda, it's not an indicator of overall RU sentiment, they're just keeping their tradition.
THIRD CORP WILL SAVE KHERSON AND ROUTE THE HOHOLS
THREE DAYS
Because there isn't a counter offensive. But Ukraine wants Russia to continue mass it's troops and equipment at the front line to "defend" the offensive. This is so Russia's forces and equipment are in a constant active state, which can be droned and himars draining Thier energy and moral, continued strain on command and control to manage them, which can be targeted by himars. Russia maintain arty barrage intinisity which mean bringing stores to front line, which can be le smokers.
All of this doesn't change the front line. Which is like a dam wall, but what it does is drain the water or energy behind the dam. So when the wall is penetrated there's nothing to fill and push back on the gap. If the dam is pushed against there's no water pressure left behind it and falls back on itself.
Russias trains are sending t55s now so that gives you an idea of what the water level is at in that regard of Russian offensive capability. But there is still the matter of drawing down the national stockpile of artillery shells which is immense.
In anyway you measure the capability of Russia, once it's artillery ammo is depleted it cannot attack or defend in any manner. But we are still at least 100 big warehouse explosions from that point. So the "counter offensives" will continue to have Russia continue moving Thier ammo to front lines.
When the explosions stop, the real offensives will begin
In a year when Russian ammo actually runs out, do you reckon we will see Russian lines collapse?
Artillery ammo is the effective Russian line. Without it continuely falling on enemy posistions Infront of thier infantry, Thier infantry will realise they now are the front and will melt in confusion due to lack of command. A collapse specifically suggests breakthrough, better to encircle, cut logistics etc. Phone them up and tell em to walk out. I don't doubt the Ukrainians.are up for it, but they wouldn't actually have to clear trenches. Warfare is about which side can get the greater amount of work done, When it stops raining metal in the Russians favour, that's 90%+ of the Russian work gone. There no other mechanisms for them to make that loss up. Thier front lines will not want to do that work, and quit/run/walk/surrender
Is it really reasonable to expect Russia to run out of ammo? From what another anon had expressed in an earlier thread they essentially had enough stockpiled to fight WWIII for several years, and that even in the event of catastrophic losses this is something they could fall back on. Is that not the case?
Extremely informative anon, thank you. That is quite surprising, I was not aware the magnitude of the shelling they were producing!
Arguably the quoted source for stockpiles could very well be Russian propaganda, and they have used a significant chunk of their old soviet stockpiles in their last few wars, plus the Russian estimates of artillery firing could well reduce in scope and last 2 years if they just fire half as much as they are now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Soviet_conflicts if you want to see what they could have theoretically spent them on. Georgia for instance used an absolute frick ton.
Sure but they have to get that absurd amount of shells to the guns on the frontlines. That's the tricky part.
It makes me sad poor Ukrainians are dying for nothing so you can be an armchair general on a shithole website
DO you really think that anons posting is the critical phase of this war? Of course you do, you terminally online spastic. It's why you think you're "contributing" to the russian war effort by shit posting here.
Here's the thing you fricking moron, the future of Ukraine is being decided now on the battlefield, and what we say here is of absolutely zero impact to what's happening there.
All your shitposting and your glorious campaign to fight the "redditors" and "globohomo" on /k/ has about as much impact on the real world as /misc/Black folk typing AAAAAAA to send their energy to Trump in 2020.
>But we are still at least 100 big warehouse explosions from that point.
Honestly, at like 5 big explosions per night, that means we'll see the real offensive by late september.
Cat was already out of the bag and they probably want more Russian equipment moving there since everything there is cut off from easy resupply.
You get congestion effects on defense just like anything else. If Russia throws a bunch of conscripts from their "republics" in and under strength units it makes the supply issues worse.
So the goal might be to make Russia invest more into an area they already can't supply, then pick off more and more supplies. It might also be a plan to trap resources in there too make it easier to launch an offensive out east with the newly trained and armed troops coming online. That is, it could be an actual feint lol.
>What exactly is the point of "announcing" or declaring a counteroffensive?
It's complicated. Sometimes of course it can just be misdirection. But in this day and age of ubiquitous networked cameras and satellite/drone surveillance major moves will tend to be broadcast. There are geopolitical and morale angles to consider. Morale obvious is super, ultra important in war and this war in particular, people need to believe in the fight to be most effective. Ukraine also wants to show results and continued determination to help keep up support of allied countries, which is also critical to their ability to stand up to a horribly corrupt but still objectively much larger foe (which is "backed" in turn to some degree by large countries like India and China).
Finally there is a demonstration of strength in being able to declare something publicly, then have it come true. You saw this at the start of this war in the actions of the United States. They did something fairly unprecedented and risky in putting so many of their intelligence cards on the table and declaring Russia was doing a war that everyone was poopooing. Remember all the "lol Iraq WMDs" and "Putin is too smart to do something like that" etc etc? But USA won big time by revealing all that, and then being proved to the world completely right in the face of all the detractors. Huge credibility win and demonstration that yeah their intel capabilities are still real even if they fricked up in the past.
If Ukraine declares a counteroffensive and rallies support and then pulls it off it's a major victory. Of course if they fail it'll be harder. But you can't win without some willingness to gamble at the right moment. Hopefully they've calculated correctly.
Saw this post, wondered what /k/ thinks 1/2
The objective of this counteroffensive is unlikely to be re-taking of Kherson. It is useful though to spread this narrative: the misdirection causes the Russians to reinforce the wrong locations.
I believe the objective is the encirclement of the Russian forces north of the Dniepro. There are up to 10,000 Russian troops here, that have been suffering supply chain diminutions for a month. The loss of bridges has prevented reinforcement by heavy forces. The attack will likely seek to reach the northern outskirts of Kherson With a second thrust towards the centre, thus splitting the northern Russian force into two pockets, with the northernmost group unable to retreat. If these two thrusts are successful, the Russian forces will be eliminated. I estimate the loss of 6000 men. Perhaps a couple of thousand will escape over the river. The retreat is likely to be a rout as they won’t be able to take heavy equipment with them.
For reference, this is broadly how the Germans attacked the Russian front in World War II. They would drive Panzer columns at specific points on the Russian front and drop paratroopers behind. When the forces met up, the entire Russian army would lose its supply line and be eliminated. They didn’t fight them, then starved them.
The success of this approach will be determined by robustness of the Russian defences, and the depth of supply that they have remaining. Weak morale, Poor quality troops, and a month of softening up Should make the Russian defence ineffective. But against this we have the Ukrainian inexperience, so we can expect the first couple of weeks to be slow as they get their act together. Expect the campaign to take a further 6-10 weeks.
2/2
It’s not clear that the Russians have a suitable response to this strategy. They can’t simply throw men at it. The most logical approach would be a counter-attack out of Kherson with substantial forces heading north. But they just don’t have the combat power available. A lot of the reinforcements are light, and the armour they do have in the south is relatively old.
It seems apparent from the Russian strategy to reinforce the Crimea with stronger forces, that the Russians are already anticipating that the Ukrainians will be successful. It’s certain that Ukrainians will not be able to push through into your Crimea this year: that will be next summer’s offensive which will follow a failed Russian spring offensive.
I believe the Ukrainian strategy is to let the Russians reinforce Crimea before they destroy the Kerch bridge. (Ukrainian drones have been over the Kerch bridge in the last week). The Russians will then be trapped in Crimea, and only able to be supplied by sea. The Ukrainians will seize control of the road to Kerch and then blow them apart from a distance…
This will probably then be the endgame for the war. If not, 2024 will see a bloody assault to recover the Donbass. Peace in 2025.
So Kherson is the new Verdun?
>The Russians will then be trapped in Crimea, and only able to be supplied by sea
I almost believed in your predictions, but you completely forgot about Crimean bridge, which is currently guarded as tightly as Kremlin.
>They would drive Panzer columns at specific points on the Russian front and drop paratroopers behind
WHAT THE FRICK? Stopped reading there.
>Did the Allies announce D-Day before it happened?
it was announced as it was happening, and it was all over the next days news
it was known to everyone, even the germans, that an amphibious assault on france was happening in 1944
the germans only didnt know where and when it would attack, but they could detect the build up in men and material, so they only tried to obscure the exact nature of the attack rather than the attack itself
>What exactly is the point of "announcing" or declaring a counteroffensive?
Confusing anyone stupid enough to think there was a point, not even kidding.
Real offensive starts in Spring when Ukrainian pilots in F16s show up
By Spring these pilots would already be enrolled in the Russian army.
>Russian Army
Yes the "Only Reason Ukraine fights is because the evil Zelensky is forcing them to fight and just one raised eyebrow later Ukraine will embrace their Russian brothers....
Stop with this cope.
>yes I will spend months in the US and miss out on becoming my nation's superheroes because Russia is that enticing
lol frick off
>Ukrainian pilots
No chance of this.
Arguably US pilot mercs could fly over hohol clay, but that won't help much.
they are literally training ukrainian pilots on various American aircraft but said they won't be ready to actually use them until well into the new year. it's confirmed. use google-fu if you don't believe me. been about a month, too
No, hohol pilots will die in planes they have no experience in, just like they died in planes they do have experience in. Russia will continue to control the air battle space. Like this faux Kherson offensive, if the ukies mass, they die.
>they have no experience in
That's what the training is for, moron. By the way, how's that air superiority working out for Russia? Strange that they're choosing to dumb fire rockets at a distance just like the Ukrainians are. I wonder what that means.
And what amazing experience does the RuAF have when they failed to conduct mass air operations when they had free reign at the beginning of the war?
Enough to kill off the hohol ability to operate.
How's that stalled offensive working out for you lad.
What do you get from posting this lame crap all day long ? do you not have any hobbies or prospects ?
Stay seething, kid.
Why can't you play LoL and jerk off to anime like a normal child ?
I almost want to screencap this shit because vatnik morons have no clue the SEAD shitstorm that is a brewin'
soon, vatnik moron, soon.
>soon
Kek, 2 more weeks!
It was likely a russian psyop that goaded these hohol morons to mass for this fake "offensive", and they got slaughtered. Let's see if they can do it again. moron hohols will go for it I bet
>Having your offensive stall out is 7degree chess
kek
>the maximum amount of time for any offensive is two days
>this is why Russia decided to capture Mariupol in just one day on Feb 24th
Alright thanks for the info
Hey comrade, what's the latest news? How many hohol brigades have we destroyed in two days?
>Russia will continue to control the air battle space.
They never had it in the first place dipshit. Russian Long Range Aviation isn’t even permitted to enter Ukrainian airspace out of fears that they’ll lose their bombers.
>no chance of javelins
>no change of m777s
>no change of HIMARS
>no chance of ATACMs
you are here
>Ukrainian pilots
>No chance of this.
US pilots flying in this war would dumpster Russia, their air force can't even secure air superiority over Ukraine. All Ukraine has is the same shit fighters and the same shit S300s. Russian AA is good for two things, shooting Russian planes and civilian airliners, that's it.
It would also be entirely justified revenge, USSR put their pilots and planes in the air vs the US during the Korean War.
This isnt ww1 or ww2. Both Russians and Ukrainians are more less 100% aware of where and when they will be attacked. Neither site has encryption equipment in any meaningful numbers. Ukrainians can easily listen to most Russian radio chatter and vice versa. This is why most battles are a mess. Its only possible to hide very small movements with <100 people.
if you google "kherson counter offensive" and go to news you will see that it went from
>WE'RE GOING TO COUNTERATTACK!!!
back in may to
>we're not actually going to counterattack. what are you, stupid? who the frick announces counterattacks?
mid summer
and then it became
>WE'RE ACTUALLY COUNTERATTACKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
on august 29th
and NOW it's
>ummm we didn't actually counterattack. it was russian disinformation. don't speak about kherson EVER again
hilarious
According to CNN, Ukraine was planning a larger-scale counteroffensive, but decided to concentrate on the Kherson direction so as not to get bogged down on several fronts.
CNN is about as reliable a source of information as Russia though.
Did the Coalition announce the battle of Baghdad? Oh wait, they did! They had thousands of air hours on the border in the days and weeks leading up to the assault to throw Iraq off.
That, or it might simply be a ploy to trap Russian assets in Kherson region
what is this moronic hohol doing? Did he pull the pin and can't figure out what to do?
>he thinks 6 months in a high performance aircraft, precious little actually flying, qualifies one for combat
The site is for >18 year olds, kid.
The russians are praying the US does this. More dead hohol pilots on the way.
Don't worry. Just 6 more months and Russia will have destroyed four different Ukrainian Air Forces and will achieve air superiority. Then finally the mighty bear will kill the hohol scum.
Reminder that the mighty Russian Air Force got slaughtered by Israelis flying outdated monke models of US jets
The experience of recent wars, seemed to indicate that despite the strengthening of the defensive through the introduction of barbed wire, machine guns and rapid-firing artillery, the attacker would almost always win the battle as long as they were determined enough and willing to accept casualties. The attacker chooses the time and place of their attack; the defender can only react to them.
Second, there's the question of morale. Taking part in a major offensive might be terrifying, but at least you're doing something. You're attacking the enemy to do them harm, and if the attack succeeds, you're bringing the end of the war nearer. But what if you're just sitting in a muddy hole in the ground for months on end, never firing your rifle?
You'll still be suffering heavy casualties, because most of the deaths in the world wars came from artillery, not machine guns. But you'll never see the enemy that kills you: just hear the whistle of the shells, the explosions, and the screams of the mutilated and dying. And those deaths will be apparently useless, because you're not doing anything to win the war sitting there in your trench. You're just waiting for death.
This is why Russia will lose
Ukraine is far more willing to take casualties for aggression
>Ukraine is far more willing to take casualties
Yes, and russia appears to like this hohol prediliction.
I don't think you understand.
You are going to lose, in spite of this.
Now, how long before hohols start fragging their own officers?
That's a solid projection since Russian soldiers are already shooting FSB officers and trying to get out of service.
Source?
https://news.yahoo.com/report-drunk-russian-soldiers-in-kherson-fired-assault-rifles-at-fsb-officers-in-deadly-incident-001518057.html
Russian Investigative Committee confirmed it themselves. I don't read Black person runes so I can't search for a Russian source properly.
>according to internal government documents obtained exclusively by Yahoo News
Kek, a fake news story is not a source, kid
It'll be ok, buddy. Keep huffing that copium. I'm sure the Russian military is professional and not made up of poorly trained alcoholics.
They're slaughtering hohols, so they seem to be alright.
For every hohol that dies at least two vatBlack folk are eating shit too. The dumb fricks can't even agree on whether their own propaganda is real or not.
Source?
>supposedly a printed document, as it has a handwritten signature and not a digital one
>has non-printable red typo highlights from Microsoft Word
Seems legit.
Now that it's verified that the may, i mean ju- i mean ju- i mean september counter offensive towards Kherson is a titanic disaster...what wunderwaffen should NATO send now?
>two days have passed
>THE COUNTER OFFENSIVE HAS FAILED LOL GET FRICKED HOHOLS!
and here /k/ome the /k/opers 😉
look, every day the so called "counteroffensive" kills about 1000+ hohols. This will get much worse once they run out of IFVs and Tanks (3-7 days in current trend).
So realistically, if the Zelensky Junta wants to fight to the last Ukrainian, as promised, they can continue this """offensive""" for about a month.
How will you /k/ope when Russia finally rolls into an abandoned Mikolaiv and liberates it?
>Russia
>Having literally any offensive capability with its current morale issues
Lmao
That's pretty good world building you got there. Might make for a good alternate history novel some day. Keep working on it though. Those numbers aren't believable for anyone with half a brain. You'll also have to find a way to make the poor Russian performance so far make sense but I'm sure you'll figure it out. You seem like an imaginative guy.
>we haven't lost yet, that means we're winning!
lmao
Go back to watching RT and other Russian cope media anon, it will only stress you out spamming these threads and finding out you are losing.
learn to read, moron.
I refuse
announcing the counteroffensive in advance gives +1 to initiative and aggroes nearby orcs and goblins
I don't know, give some more examples.
Speaking of which, has russia tried those azov nazis they pulled of the surrender line? They should put their execution video on the internet. Everybody likes watching nazis die.
Because you can't keep it secret anyway.
If the Kraut Nazi subhumans who attacked Europe in 1939 had phones they would also post pictures of themselves, of their dead victims and taunt their enemy for fun like the ukrops are doing.
"Look where we are you inferiors we're coming for you hehe look at all of these troops gathering at these coordinates look at our tanks hehe we gona frick you up so bad now motherfricka, you're fricking dead kid! 7:00 wednesday it's show time!"
Did your beloved WW2 grandads have internet?
It is impossible to hide a large-scale operation, so it is easier to announce its beginning.
The Russians must have gotten their asses fricked again with all the shill posts. Seems everytime they eat shit they have to come shit up the board
You noticed that, huh? I thought it was a meme until I started paying attention.