What comes after Kherson?

I think it's safe to say that barring divine intervention or use of nuclear weapons, that Kherson will be back in Ukrainian hands in the coming weeks or months depending on operational tempo and the weather. My question is what happens after that? Will the Ukrainians turn East and liberate Melitopol or perhaps even what's left of Mariupol? Or will they turn South and head for the prize that they've been eyeing for eight years? Crimea. Or will dig in for the winter, lick their wounds, and wait for reinforcements/additional Western hardware?

  1. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    After Kherson they'll have to get across the river somehow. Forcing it is out of question, it will be much safer to go into Zaporizhshbsh (idk how to spell it and idc) oblast instead and spread across the left bank from there.
    It would be really nice if Ukrs could send troops to the left bank Kherson oblast across the sea, but I don't see it happening.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      don't you think taking Kherson will be hard? Russians circumvented large cities in the initial invasion too for a reason, I think Ukies can do it, but the Russians probably dug in deep at this point and will fight hard

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        Wouldn't circumventing be the ideal play here too? The Russians have no hope of supplying a unit thus circumvented

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          can't be circumvented easily since it's situated on the Dnipro river
          it seems really well defensible, I think it will still take some time until Ukies can retake it

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        >don't you think taking Kherson will be hard? Russians circumvented large cities in the initial invasion too for a reason, I think Ukies can do it, but the Russians probably dug in deep at this point and will fight hard

        That's why I gave the projection for retaking it in weeks and months, rather than days.

        Also, it's pretty evident that the quality of Russian troops in Kherson has dropped even more dramatically since mobilization started. There may be a significant chance of Russian soldiers mutinying en masse and fleeing/surrendering rather than face the prospect of being cut off and doomed to a cruel repeat of Stalingrad. Being slaughtered to the last man would still only be delaying the inevitable anyway.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        The difference is, Kherson already has Ukrainian soldiers in civilian disguise waiting for the signal. It won't be easy, but probably easier than you think.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          Real talk though: I read few months ago that gangs of marauding kids were running around Kherson with knives stabbing random Russian soldiers to death.

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            Roving gangs of knife weilding children happens in peace time too.

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              Maybe in third world countries like the uk or france

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            That’s London, not Kherson.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      >After Kherson they'll have to get across the river somehow.
      I think Kherson is as far as they go from the south since crossing that river and supplying the army on the other side would be very risky. They'll use the Dnieper as a natural barrier to prevent Russian reinvasion and leave a small garrison plus some artillery / HIMARs to harass the Russian's and then move the bulk of the Southern troops to hit the north or center. But I am nobody so who knows, maybe they'll charge across the river.

  2. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    I wouldn't get my hopes too high. The Kherson oblast is very defender friendly and filled with russias best where as Kharkov was filled with lpr conscripts and russians on 50% strength. And terrain fucks over Ukraine here too

  3. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Ukrainea surrender

  4. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    I think they're better off starting a front towards melitopol or mariupol. Kherson will free itself up because the Russians will retreat

  5. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Currently you have this influx of russian mobiks that prevent any significant ukrainian gains
    While i doubt russia can start any bigger attacks with those troops, they are enough to reinforce existing positions and it will simply take time to kill them 1 by 1 with drones, etc.

    It doesnt really matter where this is done, Kherson is an obvious choice though, because of the difficult supply situation via the river
    So i doubt we will see any significant front line changes until russia has suffered at least another 25% of 300.000 in losses to degrade the new troops
    considering this is as many as they have lost in the 8 months up until now (plus the slow down through winter) I would say we are looking at about May or June next year when Putin has to either run another mobilization or risk a series of defeats similar to those in the last months

    so dont get your hopes up for tempo tempo tempo until lots of ruzzians are in an early grave

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      I don't think the Russians can sustain their presence in Kherson for that much longer. They still have to feed the mobiks after all, or else the mobiks will be the first ones to shoot their officers, walk over to Ukrainian lines, and start pointing out gun positions on the map just for a hot meal. If the Ukrainians cut off all overland routes into the city, the Russians will have to use the river to supply it and the Ukrainians can simply sink any boat crossing with drones. At that point, the garrison would be faced with the prospect of starving to death in their trenches like the 6th Army or surrender.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      >I would say we are looking at about May or June next year when Putin has to either run another mobilization or risk a series of defeats similar to those in the last months

      Is that when the Conscripts being drafted on Tuesday get sent back home?

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        Sent back home?

  6. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Depends how Kherson goes down. My armchair guess would be that they try spook them with a push on the Zap > Mel line, and then exploit weaknesses elsewhere. I doubt Mariupol is on the cards for a while, and Crimea is presumably better sieged than stormed for the next 6 months.

  7. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    They'll probably head further east and push the Russians back into the Donbas. They blew up the bridge but Crimea is still too easily defensible to assault outright

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      That makes sense. The current goal should be pushing the Russians back to the February 23rd borders to completely deprive Putin of anything resembling a victory. After that, use NATO-supplied weaponry to destroy what's left of the LPR and DPR. Then besiege Crimea, put it under immediate threat of being retaken, and try to regain it via diplomacy (ex. the Western powers conditionally suspend sanctions in exchange for a Russian withdrawal from Crimea). That way, the Russians are basically put in a carrot or a stick scenario so to say. Either they can try and hold Crimea (and likely lose) or they can withdraw in good order and save their economy from collapse.

  8. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Does anyone remember a few months ago there was a bunch of gunfire being exchanged in Kherson? It was on camera, too. A russian IFV was also involved. Wtf was that?

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Probably some Chechen tiktokers

  9. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Politically speaking, how dire will the loss of Kherson be for the Russians?

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      All part of the great feint, comrade. We make the pigs spend their materiel on something we never wanted- got rid of undesirable Russians and old gear.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      There has been enough preparation now that the loss of Kherson alone won't change much alone, I think the key thing is the number of POW mobiks.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      I was under the impression it would be a death knell, but russians have an uncanny knack for eating shit with a smile

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      >how dire will the loss of Kherson be for the Russians?
      Putin will raise two more army groups for final victory

  10. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Offensive from north to the south coast splitting Russian forces.

  11. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >Kherson will be back in Ukrainian hands in the coming weeks
    two more weeks

  12. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    they have the initiative, it wouldnt be smart to stop the offensive now that russia is down to prison inmates and conscripts with one week of training and no equipment.
    i'd go for melitopol or mariupol, either way cut off the supply lines going east to west then try to expand control towards crimea.
    at that point when the russians have lost kherson, the land bridge, and ukies are gaining massive ground the war is probably not going to last much longer.

  13. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    russia concentraded the ukr army at kherson they will hold them there until end end of the next week start of their their next offensive

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Anon, I don't think the conscripts are going to be much better than the mobiks. If anything, they're probably going to be worse.

  14. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Zaporizhzhia is most likely the next offensive for Ukraine.
    Attacking there and pushing all the way to Azov Sea would split the Russian forces in two. The Western Russian unist could only be supplied by local Crimean production and whatever can travel via the Kerch Bridge. This would also enable Ukraine to more relibale strike the Kerch Bridge and eventually the situation would turn into a logistical disaster for Western Russian units. You may even see Ukraine attemtping to advance on Crimea before fully clearing Donetsk and Luhansk.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      > pushing all the way to Azov Sea would split the Russian forces in two.
      I agree that this is the most likely scenario. The ukrainians do not really need to conquer Kherson yet, just to pin there the best russian units that still exist while they surround them and attack them from the back. The russian Dombas troops will be unable to mount dangerous ffensives for many months and can easilty contained.
      I think this is the reason the "good" russian units are trying to retreat from Kherson, leaving there conscripts there in defence positions to stall the ukrainians, while trying to avoid being trapped in the future with the only option to go back to a besieged Crimea (which would be also cut off from its fresh water supply in Kherson).

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        I believe Ukraine may attempt to push out the Russians from Kherson so only a small force is needed to guard the river crossing and a lot of units can be reassigned to Zaporizhzhia. Both sides have already been building up froces there for the past months since both now how vital the area is. Ukraine could cut off all Russian troops to the West from all supply that doesn't come from Crimea.

  15. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    I wonder too. The river crossing will be very difficult, interesting to see how they'll try it.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      >interesting to see how they'll try it.
      They don't need to and they won't.
      Just turn around and drive to zaporizhya.

  16. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    The head of the Ukie army says he wants to see the total number of soldiers eventually hit a million men, so they might just take a break whilst the fronts are static to let the next bunch of NATO trained troops come in to form the spearheads of the next offensives, as well as receiving more equipment from the West as well.

    As for where they'll go after securing their side of Kherson?

    It depends on whether the Russian's have the balls to fully blow the Nova Kakhova dam or not; as they've backed tracked on that lately saying that the "Ukrainians" were no longer planning a full demolition, but a smaller one that would only cause about 2m of flooding and "should" leave Crimea with drinking water still.

    If they turn Eastern Kherson into a swamp, it might be better to focus back on the Donbas for a bit. According to ISW, the Russian Milbloogers have managed to convince themselves that the Ukrainian's next big push will be towards Zaporizhzhia, and since they seem to be controlling the Russian strategic planning more than the actual bloody MoD at this point, I don't see an offensive being launched here in the near future.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Aside from a ecological disaster on Kherson, How do you think Nato is going to respond if the Dam is destroyed? Will they give the Ukies access to even more deadly weapons?

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        Not that anon but probably. This is all baseless assumption but I expect NATO's intentionally holding back so that they can gradually escalate each time Russia tries something funny: if they went all out right at the start then Russia could do whatever the fuck they like without any additional consequences to worry about.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        Honestly, I think it depends on how many civilian casualties it causes. If it washes away an entire Russian army and all of their support into the Black Sea, I think we'll all just spend the next week making jokes about them reinforcing the VDV or going to rescue the Moskva. If it takes out half of the remaining civilian population, then we could see a surge of support from the West and its civilian populace; especially if it happens around Christmas time. The support will probably just be more of the same, unless this is when they chose to publicly announce that they will be giving Ukraine Abrams and F-16s.

  17. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Ahhhhhh yes, the mighty Kherson offensive is coming... again.

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