What are the military implications of cheap, mass access to space Posted on March 4, 2023 by PrepHole Contributor What are the military implications of cheap, mass access to space
Go back to /sfg/, fuck.
I don’t think he even posts there
Why are you opposed to this discussion on PrepHole? To me it seems like the advent of cheap, massive payloads to orbit are about as gamechanging as powered flight- it entirely changes the nature of warfare and society. I think it’s like we’re in 1910- heavier than air flight exists, but so far it’s just used by dilettantes with not too big an impact yet. But in a few years, once the technology matures, it will be hard to remember how different things were in the ‘before’ times. If you’re old enough to remember how the world was before the Internet, it’s like that.
Because he (or you) post this exact same fucking thread like twice a week. If you want to actually have this conversation with people who know what they are talking about, go to /sfg/.
But what if he wants people who know nothing about the subject to make funny proposals?
nothing matter with it anon. Just contrarians pulling their tired one trick pony where ever they pop up. You are right though. Cheap access to low earth orbit means a lot of shit in orbit and wider solar system by relation. This means industrialization. Where serious infrastructure and resources are involved there will be war. Star Trek tier idealism can only exist on TV shows written by urban socialists
You think resource colonies like the asteroid belt would eventually be able to gain independence from the planets or do you think they’d choose or be forced to stay aligned to them? The asteroids would become an important source of resources and people may even fight over a single asteroid if it has a particularly expensive metal content
Even better once you realize radiation is a big nothing burger in space with the environments and distances involved. Which means mass usage of nuclear missile strikes against rivaling fleets becomes a viable tactic while on earth and near orbits it is gimped by net style hard counters like global ABM networks keeping each other in check.
How dare he archive a Ukrainian thread for this!?!?!?!?
Starfield isn't even out yet retard
Attritable recon/communications constellations, acheiving real time surveilance and reconnaisance everywhere at once.
Fuel depots in orbit to enable sustained cis lunar operations, for recon and anti-satelite work.
longer term you will see economic exploitation of the moon, great powers will likely compete for access to strategic sites on the moon, that have long term potential.
The Moon Wars are gonna be brutal, terrible, and awesome.
Artillery is god tier on the moon.
Shit, you could put it into low orbit and score some sweet trick shots.
>tfw part of third lunar artillery company
>fire our LUNART-1
>enemy too close for effective fire
>fire at extreme range
>projectile does three laps around the moon before hitting the target just across the crater edge
>shrapnel and pieces of broken bodies and microglass-like lunar dust shreds an orbiting satellite
kek. A moon based electromagnetic accelerator would be a big deal though. Just ask Heinlein
I think The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress will end up being oddly prescient, though probably off by the better part of a century. It's a damn shame the Soviets gave up on landing men on the moon, a continuation of the Space Race would've been kino. Russian incompetence really does hold back all of mankind.
This thread is making me sad. We were born too late to enjoy the post-war recovery and cold war aesthetics, but too early to join the space marines and conquer the moon.
American boots on the moon and mars within the next 20 years
>sign up for moon colony
>cool automated house under Eden project inspired habitat dome
>Sino-Russo-Ayylmao coalition attacks moon
>call NATO for help
>pic related show up
>they are all that stands between you and certain death/torture/probing
I'm shaking and crying why are they the wrong color
>Sino-Russo-Ayylmao coalition attacks moon
Thanks for reminding me this exists.
You'll need to spend a lot of time in the gym to stop your body atrophying from the low gravity. On the plus side, less bullet drop.
Isn't there already a scheduled mission in the next few years?
2025 for Moon landing demo (without crew) with Starship
2026 with humans on Moon
So 2 years from now.
When combined with their experience in constructing starlink? Instant brilliant pebbles, just add methane
Tonnage to space begins to be a more important metric for defense analysis, kind of like how "tons put to sea" is now.
>nobody pointing out that Musk explicitly wrote in public-facing SpaceX documentation that their Mars operations will be sovereign
The establishment of space colonies will make the New World discovery look like a drop in the bucket.
Spacex is just the new East India Company. May become very powerful for a while but they will be absorbed by their parent country. Musk says a lot of shit and 70% of it either doesn't come true or isn't as good as promised
Not for a while though. New World was quickly to gain autonomy since the habitable environment with basic inputs was already there. Try now something like that when orbiting Venus. Even if you find any purpose for in atmosphere activites anything big and serious will involve floating platforms 40-50 km above the surface. That means that for basic inputs like water and ore you will need to import heavily from the mining colonies. Or if you are hardcore find a way to actually extract resources from the surface. Which is like deep sea mining on steroids
E*RTHERS will feel the wrath of Mars Sovreign
Australia's days are numbered get ready Earthnoids
Propaganda every time you look into the sky
I swear to christ how many times must I tell you gays to MEME RESPONSIBLY
The sheer fragility of habitation in space and its life support infrastructure will force mankind to leave behind the childishness of war forever.
you think people are going to be shooting at each other when just breathing takes our most cutting edge technology? ridiculous
>you think people are going to be shooting at each other when just breathing takes our most cutting edge technology?
Ever heard of submarines?
>What are the military implications of cheap, mass access to space
first strike could happen at any moment and you might not be able to fire back
Is it finally set to launch again?
ABM defences get a major upgrade. If you equip a cheap interceptor in orbit launched at quantities reaching tens of thousands, liks starlink sats, then you can detect and start intercepting missiles as they are in their acceleration phase barely out of the atmopshere. Across the entire planet, no matter the location. Most ABM systems today try to hit it in the terminal phase where it is like trying to hit a bullet with another bullet.
Mars is going to see its fair share of Dune inspired larps, isn't it? It is like Sahara and Antarctica combined
Imagine vaccuum sealed electric bradleys rushing through the red martian forest leaving dust devils behind them
Imagine the noctus labyrinth being used as an artillery stronghold with artillery protected by closing doors inside the walls of the ravine.
*desert, hoe the fuck did write forest
I just want to see what happens when I smash my enemies helmet in
puke, piss and shit themselves and asphyxiate
This actually might be a much better place than /sfg/ to ask:
What the fuck happened to the Russian space program?
It seemed remarkably resistant to the Russian Rot for decades, manufacturing and operating hundreds of manned orbital launches safely and efficiently, and was one of Russia's last, greatest sources of international prestige, foreign currency, high tech industry, etc.
Then it appeared, quite suddenly and abruptly, they destroyed that too. Took one of the last things in their entire country that had any value, and in an act of tremendous self-harm, just fucking scuttled it.
for some reason the people working there were just less subject to corruption, possibly due to ideals, my understanding is a large part of roscosmos has been relatively neutral to the war for a govt agency except for rogozin.
After the war in ukraine started they did a pretty good job internalizing their supply and manufacture but it wasn’t perfect, which is why they wanted angara to replace the soyuz which WAS fully in-house manufactured, but it seems they’re still having problems launching angara with any regularity.
Anyway they were doing fine but one big problem is they were mostly running on their own profits, this was fine when the shuttle shut down and america needed the soyuz to launch crew, which they payed a heavy fee for, and on top of that they controlled a large part of the commerical market. But the elon musk came along, they lost their ability to grift for manned missions and also lost the majority of their commercial market. Eventually when the invasion started cooperation with ariane was halted, and then rogozin put the final nail in the coffin by literally stealing oneweb satellites, which was one of their biggest remaining customers. After that commercial interest in roscosmos was pretty much done because nobody likes having their satellites stolen.
In the end i think that roscosmos is running in fumes right now. They recently begged for their soyuz back that they autistically left in a hurry in french guyana, in exchange for aforementioned oneweb sats. of course their offer was declined and basedus may face production issues in the near future, with angara not yet up to speed who knows if they will survive the coming decades.
I cant fucking believe the wordfilter applies to s o y u z
It doesn't, there was an "s" in there instead of a "z"
Soyuz has to be one of the few things programmed to pass the wordfilter
>I cant fucking believe the wordfilter applies to s o y u z
they're trying to hide the fact that söylent green is people
This is pretty well said. End of the day, space programs require relatively independent thinking intelligent engineers, lots of institutional knowledge that gets maintained and worked on, attention to detail and caring about getting it right not half-assing it, as well as significant capital. Everything about Russia is working against all of that. It's actually impressive they've been able to go so long, though granted some of that was due to US strategic interests + US fuckups not their own skills. Without the boondoggle of the Space Shuttle things would have been different earlier, but also the US very specifically wanted to Cold War era Soviet rocket scientists and engineers to have a long coast to retirement. That is now happening/happened however, it's been 30 years, US isn't concerned anymore about USSR ICBM stuff going everywhere.
>who knows if they will survive the coming decades.
There is a solid chance Russia will become the first country to lose manned access to space. Of course all the American startups show that it is in fact possible to get to orbit on a relative shoestring. So I can certainly see Russia managing to maintain domestic capability to launch satellites at least. But they have no answer to F9 let alone Starship, nor even to the medium rockets that Rocket Labs and Relativity and so on are working on. I'd put more money on a US startup becoming the alternative launch provider to SpaceX rather then roscomos.
>US strategic interests + US fuckups
I feel like a big revealing moment was when the cunt was like "Maybe we withdraw from ISS, ISS crashes through atmosphere without Russian boosters"
And two fucking days later in a remarkable coincidence the Northrup Grumman supply ship that was docked demonstrated that it could do station stabilization boosts itself
Meaning leaving Russia in charge of the altitude management for 20 years was, literally and unironically, a goodwill gesture
>Meaning leaving Russia in charge of the altitude management for 20 years was, literally and unironically, a goodwill gesture
Yeah? I mean, Russians may have forgotten/deluded themselves into rewriting history, they do that a lot. But it's not as if it was some secret, this was discussed from the 90s. US was absolutely concerned about the effects the dissolution of the USSR would have in terms of weapon technology proliferation. I mean shit, current events are right out of that, the US and Russian security guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for giving up nukes were about managing that fallout too. ISS was supposed to represent a more noble unified post-Cold War "we're all in this together in space" thing. And to get away from PrepHole cynicism a moment, it actually has done that pretty well under the circumstances for a remarkably long time. Russia might have taken a different path, it wasn't impossible to hope for in the 90s. But even as it turned back into worse shit then ever ISS and the space program stayed relatively well insulated from it. Not perfect, but ok.
I very, VERY much look forward very much to Starship powered vastly bigger and better space stations and even starbases. Ones that aren't purely government projects but also commercial and industrial and tourism. But I'll still be a bit sad when the end comes for ISS, because I doubt we ever try something like that ever again. May not have worked on the ground but I don't hate the vision of the people behind it.
The US would never have one point of failure on space missions. Honeslty the idea is laughable.
Not after Skylab, at least.
>Without the boondoggle of the Space Shuttle things would have been different earlier,
Imagine the Apollo program never got dismantled and the Shuttle never became a thing.
If the exact same $209 billion we poured into the Shittle was spent mass producing Saturn Vs and Skylab-derived sustainability modules instead we would have had the fucking inner solar system at least as colonized as Antarctica by the year 1990
The shittle was the second worst thing to happen to American space flight, but the Challenger the first worst. Manned space flights blowing up IS a tragedy, but the histronic reaction because some teacher taken as meat ballast was on-board wrought decades of damage to NASA.
Did you hear they recently flound the flight recorder of the Challenger shuttle? Last words spoken on board were Christa McAuliffe's. She can be heard asking "what does this button do?"
They swapped out the director with a Putin crony some years ago iirc
It wasn't just ROSCOSMOS m8, Russia's recent actions (you know which ones, open the catalog) catalyzed a series of events that torpedoed a sizable portion of the world's commercial access to space. A handful of Russian space hardware was being made in Ukraine and it's obviously hurting them not having it, in addition
Zenit rockets won't fly anymore since it was a joint venture with Ukraine.
Arianespace isn't going to be able to fly Soyuz 2 any more in order to comply with sanctions, they don't have another vehicle to fit in that niche and Ariane 6 looks to be on very shaky ground.
Part of space startup Firefly's engines were being made there and obviously aren't any more. Their CEO was Ukrainian and was forced to sell all of his shares and fuck off on grounds of being a security concern.
ULA is in deep shit over Vulcan's engines and they couldn't go restart Atlas V production even if they wanted to since the engines were russian and those aren't happening anymore.
Antares is being forced to redesign and source engines (from Firefly who is also in deep shit lmao) because they were flying on soviet relics and modern russian replacements after that. (not gonna happen anymore)
The two major commercial launch providers (that aren't Spacex) get bludgeoned and they weren't doing so great before either way and there's about a grand total of one space startup that isn't a catastrophic failure, that doesn't happen to have ties with Russia or Ukraine.
If one were PrepHole minded they would suppose Elon started the war in Ukraine to shut down all of his competitors and then shitpost all day about suing for peace to deflect suHispanicion.
I guess that's part of what I was asking about - Roscosmos seemed, amazingly, briefly, immune even to the diplomatic shitstorm and sanctions. Westerners continued to speak warmly of cooperation with them even as other Russian ties disintegrated. We kept hearing about joint ISS missions and joint Soyuz missions up until basically the day of the OneWeb debacle.
Then they took it upon themselves to utterly obliterate this last bridge in a fashion that looks much more like suicide than murder.
Brain drain is real. Communism yields results because serfdom at gunpoint generally gets people to do what you want with acceptable efficiency, if unenthusiastically. Not that's it's pleasant for every party involved.
In light of that, the absolute worst thing you can do if you're a totalitarian oppressive shithole where nobody wants to live is open your borders so all of your slaves leave. Only ones left who can labour are either or apathetic to their misery, terminally bitch made and psychologically dependent on the neck-boot kink to function or too basic to understand there's grass on the other side and leave. All of which are archetypal communists born in communist land, raised in communist culture and educated by communists who believed speciation occurs by scotch taping an orange and an apple together and waiting for the blazing fire of socialism to magick the new fruit into reality because natural selection is ideologically at odds with the marxist leninist tenet that everyone is born equal.
Everyone with a brain who gave a fuck left.
I'm not in the camp that reads the Ukraine flag colored overalls stunt as ROSCOSMOS and the cosmonaut crew extending an olive branch. The crew in your picture were to arrive around the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea. Incidentally, the invasion and annexation of Ukraine proper was to be completed by then, and so the color scheme was meant to be symbolic of victory and unity.
They wanted to gloat but obviously the two day special operation was dragging a bit behind by the time the flight lifted off and so the choice in attire made the total opposite impression since the context changed.
Could they have sewn new overalls overnight? Sure, they're not a mission critical articles, they're just disposable rags. But it's Russia conducting operations with gravitas and professionalism as only modern day Russia can, so what the fuck do i know.
>Brain drain is real.
>the absolute worst thing you can do if you're a totalitarian oppressive shithole where nobody wants to live is open your borders so all of your slaves leave
>Only ones left who can labour are either or apathetic to their misery, terminally bitch made and psychologically dependent on the neck-boot kink to function or too basic to understand there's grass on the other side and leave.
Could it happen on a planetary scale, or would the barrier to exit be too high? Supposing, for example, there were a self-sustaining colony and all the smart people wanted to move there.
You're viewpoint is backwards. Hoping that whichever entity puts a filter on us when we leave will be a ruthless economical opportunist and not a bunch of idealogues and zealots, the Mars colony will be a meritocracy. Putting a 100 million kilometer air gap between us will be an opportunity to leave behind the massive genetic and ideological baggage that's holding us back as a species. The timeline where our colonies regard us like we do the likes of North Korea is the preferable one.
So the Earth would be left to the stupid people? That's what I meant.
>It will also be ungodly expensive and you would have to sell all your assets
Why would you have to pay for the trip if you're going to work there? If other anon's hope is correct and the colony owner is an economic opportunist, then they would want to bring skilled people with them to build the new society. They're not going to turn down an engineer, for example, just because you don't have the money for a rocket ticket.
>Supposing, for example, there were a self-sustaining colony and all the smart people wanted to move there.
Then we pass laws to make it illegal for replicants to live on Earth.
In the near term the barrier will be very high. Don't forget that life on a mars colony will be very harsh. It will also be ungodly expensive and you would have to sell all your assets and you probably will never return.
SpaceX chewed through their manifest and killed Russian space industry.
With the loss of revenue from foreign sats and NASA (spacex now carries Americans to ISS instead of Russia), Russian space industry suffered knowledge loss as they couldnt continue to pay out top dollars (literally) to their rocket engineers.
They don't pay enough. Most of the staff are boomers that are nearing retirement. But there's no new blood since the salaries aren't competitive for people with that skillset. The younger set just stay a few years for experience and then leave.
>It seemed remarkably resistant to the Russian Rot
Even the Russians had no idea why they were building Buran, except that America was doing it too.
Literal cargo cult
>You see Ivan, Americans build this ceramic clad cosmic bird, it must be of utmost importance. We should start constructing ours immediately.
im going to hitch a ride to the moon and build a tree fort. anything with in range of my Crosman 760 is mine.
>im going to hitch a ride to the moon and build a tree fort
don't forget to bring your own tree and lumber
Next 9/11 willbe done with a spaceship deorbiting right into new WTC or something.
it's been mentioned a few times by defense thinkers. things they've theorized:
>logistics payloads stored in orbit
>gas stations in orbit, allowing spacecraft and satellites to have mobility that is orders of magnitude above what is currently possible
>rapid mobility between far flung areas of the world
>military starlink-sized satellite constellations
sorry i forgot one
>backup satellites stored far away from earth so they can be used to replenish lost satellites in case of war
tungsten rods in orbit
Space feudalism, with a council of rocket manufacturesrs