We shit on the Russian military a lot here but do the Ukrainians have the military capabilities to take back their lost territory? Let's look at things realistically here, both the Kherson and Kyiv warzones were both regained by Russian withdrawals not reclaimed by a Ukrainian offensive. The only real offensive Ukrainian had taking back its lost territory was in the Kharkiv warzone. I know it's still winter but if they can't launch a successful offensive during spring or summer then they don't have the capabilities to take back their lost territory. Just look at the city of Donetsk, Ukraine has been at the outskirts of this city for years and they're unable to start sieging it.
The only retards that constantly shit on Russia are fags with a Russia complex.
It's very likely Ukraine has no offensive capabilities and will never retake any territory.
The coming spring/summer will remove any doubts.
screencapping this if u dont mind lol
I hope he kills himself after the Ukrainians re-take Mariupol and you repost this.
Ukraine just needs to buy time. Russia gets weaker every day, Ukraine gets stronger every day.
Ukraine's allies have the technical ability to analyze what Ukraine needs and deliver the solution in a timely manner.
If Ukraine needs more accurate targeting, they'll get help. If Ukraine needs longer range delivery, they'll get help. If Ukraine needs more anti-air, they'll get help. If Ukraine needs more mines, they'll get help.
Meanwhile nobody is helping Russia. Russia keeps losing men and material with nothing to replace it. Moral will fail and people will turn against the war.
When sons keep coming home in body bags resolve weakens for the attacker and increases for the defender.
>Ukraine's allies have the technical ability to analyze what Ukraine needs and deliver the solution in a timely manner.
just like america took a year to decide to deliver abrams and then stating it would take them yet another year to remove muh super sekreet armor technology, and how they're stilling mulling whether to send them aircrafts a year in even though they know it would take at least another year to get the transfer finilized?
>just like america took a year to decide
America (and allies) provides satellite intel, anti-armor, anti-air, and long range precision strike capabilities years before the invasion allowing Ukraine to throw back Russia immediately and fight them to a stand still. Immediately after the invasion the allies provided drone strike capabilities.
As long as Ukraine keeps doing their part, by being competent and enthusiastic defenders of their own country, they will be victorious.
don't drown in your kool aid
not an argument
Escalation my man
The plan was the Putin, being a theoretically rational actor, would see that his invasion was going nowhere and that the west still had a lot more gear they could be giving Ukraine but weren't, and back down
He didn't, so now the tanks go in
If he still doesn't back down after that, we move on to fighter jets and standoff munitions
Putin's already pivoted to wanting a forever-war, so he's never "defeated". The only way to end it is by dropping an R9X on his head, and even then, his boyars might just replace him with a body double.
yes that's the official PrepHoleope analysis, in reality that's what the west wishes putin would (retreat on his own feeling really sorry about himself) because they themselves are reluctant to put in the serious effort needed to do that, but that's not going to happen.
NEVER GIVE UP HOPE
What does putin got to escalate? Planes? He flew those, they still fly in fact, just not where AA is which is vast majority of territory by now
Tanks? Already done at the start
Terror bombings? Done, been done since General Compegeddon came in, even before that in fact
Fact is that nukes is the only card Putin has left, well that and full mobilization
Putin doesn't have to be a rational actor not to use nukes, to use them he has to be utterly suicidal as well as everyone near him, as for mobilization, well we all saw what shitfest partial one was
>If he still doesn't back down after that, we move on to fighter jets and standoff munitions
Except we won't. The war and military aid to Ukraine is becoming more and more unpopular in some countries. The US Germany and Italy already have half of their populations willing to stop any kind of military aid. What do you think will happen when this aid continues to increase with a ramping inflation ? By the end of the year either the West closes the tape and push Zelensky to negotiate or half of the countries just stops giving money and guns.
>US … already have half of (it’s) populations willing to stop any kind of military aid
Pull the other one. The monetary aid is the only kind of aid that sees less than 70% approval, and even when you don’t divide the categories, 64% of Americans support “more”.
I can tell from your grammar that you're a Russian or maybe a Serb. Know this - those protests they show you in Western capitals are typically from fringe loudmouth groups. Also it's ironic to say this but people don't get to decide shit. Not until elections anyway.
>I can tell from your grammar that you're a Russian or maybe a Serb.
Ok I was wrong. It's not half of the population willing to stop military assistance but 29% and only 48% in favor.
>Forty-eight percent say they favor the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine, with 29% opposed and 22% saying they’re neither in favor nor opposed. In May 2022, less than three months into the war, 60% of U.S. adults said they were in favor of sending Ukraine weapons.
>Americans are about evenly divided on sending government funds directly to Ukraine, with 37% in favor and 38% opposed, with 23% saying neither.
You really don't know what you're talking about.
Support for Ukraine is still really high across the board with everyone who isn't MAGA. The MAGAtards are barely a quarter of the country, and even some of them still support Ukraine. Overall support is at like 70% or so
The only people seriously carrying water for Putin still are the shills he paid good money for. Tucker, MTG, et al. You can ignore them like everyone else does, once you figure out they will say literally anything for money, you realize they're debased.
>The only people seriously carrying water for Putin still are the shills he paid good money for
Being against the war and/or against supporting Ukraine doesn't mean you're a Russian shill. Many people hate Russia in general but just think that it ain't justified to fuck up our economies, or to lower our reserves of strategical military equipment in an already bad situation, or to dump so much money while the working class is struggling with inflation and fewer economical aid because of budget cuts... All of this for a third world shithole like Ukraine.
I'm sorry for Ukrainians but the well-being of my fellow citizens comes first. And I don't wanna hear the "Ukraine is defending the West". Russia is as much a shit hole as Ukraine and isn't a threat for Europe. Its military is a fucking joke. Even Poland would rape Russia.
Roughly 80% or the US population support continuing to arm Ukraine.
I am generally right wing and have little love for Biden, I still am generally supportive of fucking with the Russians.
From BOTH and idealistic and pragmatic view it's beneficial for the US and co to be backing Ukraine, and i e personally long discounted the threat of "muh nooks'
>When sons keep coming home in body bags resolve weakens for the attacker and increases for the defender.
That's what happens in sane countries, meanwhile in Russia the tards are getting into a frenzy that they're being genocided by nazis
That lie will stop working as the dead pile up. Meanwhile the people of Ukraine will have visible proof they are being invaded as they look out the window to see rockets launching and landing and Russian idiots keep posting horrific videos of their war crimes on social media. Russians will see these same videos and it will further weaken their resolve as they understand they are the bad guys.
you have a vastly inflated opinion of the russian people
In my opinion they both get weaker. Though I can't really tell which will fold first yet. Russia has a lot of men. A lot. I dare say enough to outlast ukraine if fighting continues like this. Extra weapons help as long as there is motivated and qualified manpower, which is unfortunately finite and may or may not decline because people can get sick of having anxiety over random grad rockets flying about in the middle of the night. Also, we don't really know if russia is getting aid from xi or -stans.
To add, you underestimate how brainwashed and authoritarian russia is. Nobody there is going to speak against the authorities - they unironically would rather become mobiks than face torture they believe will happen if they disobey. Russian population won't budge unless you somehow behead their government and all of their agencies, which would basically require nuking moscow.
>you underestimate how brainwashed and authoritarian russia is.
Russian men are cowards. Once the war is obviously lost, they'll adjust to the new reality and kiss the boots of their new masters gladly. All it will take is for a new siloviki to decide the time is optimal to give Putin the window treatment and declare the war over. Once the ukies reach the Russian border, Vlad is fucked.
>All it will take is for a new siloviki to decide the time is optimal to give Putin the window treatment and declare the war over.
Wishful thinking. The lesson of the 1917 Russian Republic is to wait for the old regime to admit defeat before defenestrating them, because the new regime that immediately admits defeat will rule for weeks only.
The only way this war ends before Putin signs his death warrant by admitting defeat, is if Putin dies unexpectedly, whereupon a scapegoat will take power and admit defeat and then immediately be removed from power. Since Putin knows this as well as anyone, he will never admit defeat, and therefore this war will continue until either popular uprising or Ukraine forces Russia back into Russia and enforces a DMZ in Russian territory (Peoples Republic of Belgorad, etc). No one in the West wishes to admit this, but the war going poorly and Russia continuing to struggle in the mileau of the Great Russian Soul might be bad for Putin, but settlement is FATAL for Putin or whoever overthrows him, so settlement is impossible. Perhaps a bureaucrat or colonel can survive capitulation and the fall from grace that capitulation will bring, but no man who has the prominence and personality required to take the reigns in Russia can survive losing the SMO.
This is why I regularly make clear to my senators and representative that I support Ukraine for the inevitable long war stage of this conflict which will last from the end of 2023 until Putin’s likely natural death.
good analysis of the russian "soul"
>Russia has a lot of men. A lot.
Russia does not have enough expendable men.
Yes they do. The only men that aren't expendable to the Russians are those in Moscow.
And St. Petersburg and their respective greater metropolitan areas.
Which is to say, basically all of Russia.
KDR is 7:1 in favour of Ukraine. Population is only 3:1 in favour of Russia. Russia is not trading favourably here.
Nobody knows the kdr. We are not getting any even reasonably accurate numbers at least until it's well over and even then it'll be written by the victors.
>Nobody knows the kdr.
We don't know the KDR but there is a KDR and it likely favors Ukraine substantially.
KDR can be hidden, but it still exists and can't be propaganda'd away.
7th wave of forced mobilization gives a hint about the true kdr
Nice pol meme but there are only three waves.
Tell me you are a Pol brown with out telling me that you are a Pol Braun.
You do know that mobilization/conscription is not voluntary right?
Also Russia never stopped mobilization. That why 900 000 Russians had fled by October last year already
more importantly, no one knows how many recruitable men can ukraine and russia send to the meatgrinder.
strelkov himself has claimed that russia's last census was manipulated to give the impression that the country has a lot more young men than it really does. ukraine has also lost a lot of young people to emigration over the past 10 years. i suspect that not even the people at the top have accurate numbers at their disposal. we won't know for sure until the conflict ends.
you read that on cnn?
The bongs put that number out a few days ago. Not saying that it's accurate, but you not knowing where the 7:1 number came from and your mentioning of muh CNN made it painfully obvious that you're a retarded /pol tourists who needs to go back.
So you just take some bong number at face value? They're just as involved as everyone else.
For this war, the Modus Operandi for Western intelligence is to just tell the truth, since that frustrates Russian intelligence's disinfo.
U.S. called the invasion and prevented a shitload of false flag attacks by just telling everyone they were going to happen. It helps that the FSB has more leaks than the Moskva.
>tell the truth on the internet
>truth on intelligence on top of that
Hearing the truth is like being dipped in acid for Russians. That's why they all told each other they'd take Ukraine in 3 days.
you're welcome to post all these W's if you can
I wrote "Not saying that it's accurate"
>So you just take some bong number at face value?
You need to go back
>you can't get accurate info
>it's 7:1 but it's inaccurate
the bongs got that number from where? protip it's mostly guesswork
7:1 (5:1 according the last reports) is only in the Bakhmut area. If we are talking about the war as a whole, 7:1 is absolutely ridiculous. All mentions of casualties that we've had so far put the Russians at 200k+ and the Ukrainians at 130k+
>we don't really know if russia is getting aid from xi
Probably nothing substantial. Part of what the US buys with its China indulgence policy is cooperation on international matters. China has too much to lose and too little to gain by providing Russia anything but token gestures. "Here's 10 mighty Chinese tanks. Go forth and win your great and just war against the imperials!"
>unless you somehow behead their government and all of their agencies, which would basically require nuking moscow
There is a much easier way. You entice the agencies to behead the dictator. The Achilles Heel of every dictator is that they rely on a small number of people to maintain power. You just need to offer a better deal to those key people.
Russia isn't going to become a legitimate democracy. But a kinder tyrant can be installed.
>which would basically require nuking moscow.
Your terms are acceptable
>Russia has a lot of men. A lot.
Vatnigs have less meat then fucking Bangladesh
>area of Russia is 17.1 million square km
Which means roughly 9 people per square km. I assume this is because a large part of Russia is wastelands, forests and mountains?
Pretty much, outside of european heartland its basically empty other than towns and cities that huddle near its southern border and like on railway
hilariously empty and hollow. Economy the size of Italy and economic model resembling african resource colonies. With similar development metrics accompanying it. Best part is that east of the Urals there are only 14-15 mil russians. Against a border that has 120+ mil alone with the chinese.
>Economy the size of Italy
Before the war.
Seriously, whats gonna happen when China decides it wants its old russian territories back
When the wall fell (I am old) I was convinced we were going to help Russia against Chinese infiltration and subversion that would lead to invasion. Back then, there were signs of the Chinese infiltrating Siberia and crossing the border.
But for Russia empire and pride are more important than razionality.
They are basically colonizing the area with workers now. Theres a ton of Russian women on the Pacific coast marrying chinese men and settling down on the border.
>They are basically colonizing the area with workers now.
Do Russians know/care?
I will never understand these people.
one day they'll have to come term with the fact that their subhuman meat wave tactics don't work on countries that dwarf them demographically
That guy that runs Inside Russia knows, he talks about it often. But says the average vatnik truly believes China loves them and is looking out.
He also once said he didnt blame the women for marrying the Chinese because most of the vatniks were alcoholics that refuse to work and beat their wives.
that sounds pretty chucked ngl.
I am retarded today, more than usual.
Really speaks to the wasted potential of Russia
If it wasn't for the shit culture + shit government combo it could've been the real Eurasian powerhouse working alongside mainland Europe, but lol
what does bangledash have to do with any of this you fucking retard? and how does that refute that 140m people is a shit ton of meat?
It was just an example you retard. Russia is not Soviet Union, and it's not a superpower anymore.
>Russia is not Soviet Union
>that broken angliski
ok hohol, nobody was claiming that either way, keep your butthurt in your pants
>that broken angliski
Lol, the fuck are you even on about you dumb fucking retard? There was nothing wrong with that statement.
Missed a “the” and missed a comma.
The missed “the” before Soviet Union is a particularly stereotypical eastern euro English error.
hint for you slavshit retards
lack of articles
it shows how small they really are retard. In the age of easily accessible mass killing devices, passive shrpanel charges and precision munitions not even the 1billion plus poos and changs have that much of a effect with numbers.
Last time spamming with retarded lemmings had any effect was in WW2 and that was after several years of severe grind in every dimension, absurd amounts of steroids being fed from over the ocean and it left a permanent mark in the vatnik demographic pyramid which they have never really recovered from to this day.
>In the age of easily accessible mass killing devices, passive shrpanel charges and precision munitions
good thing nearly no country is in that age, certainly not ukraine
>It's very likely Ukraine has no offensive capabilities and will never retake any territory.
all of the western armor and new goodies that you've heard is arriving, but you haven't seen in combat.
don't worry about it bro. don't worry about it.
Yes, the wunderwaffen will save us, hoholsisters.
Anon, it's not wunderwaffen, just equipment made less than 50 years ago. Seriously, when will you learn?
>just equipment made less than 50 years ago
Most of the armored vehicles they will get are not really "modern" western tanks tho, in fact, only a very small number of them are; see
>Yes, the wunderwaffen will save us.
it's kind of sad really. Russia has been humilated by a dozen of himars (wiith basic ammo) and still you think it's ok to be smug like this..
What will you say in a few months when russia loses everything in the south?
>Buck broken by hand-me-downs so effective that the Vatnik mind cannot comprehend them.
Who knew modern technology was basically Eldritch knowledge to the third world.
all 12 tanks that keep getting postponed (tanks that are totally artillery and mine proof btw)
like himars and m270
these tanks are like himars in what way?
how many himars and m270 have been taken out by mines and artillery?
oh so you're suggesting tanks are like himars in that they'll be kept in the rear (which is to say not used) and therefore not be destroyed... allow me to disregard your every point on the grounds of you being a retard
you can't hit the rear with artillery? so this is the vaunted gay artillery...
Ah yes, "12" tanks
To the OP, yes, Ukraine will likely take back most of the remaining occupied territory. One only has to look at how much territory they retook after the initial invasion to understand just how motivated they are. When winter hit, even if it was a mild one, it basically grinds major offensives to a halt until the weather can clear up. Once spring fully hits, expect the shit to hit the fan just like last year.
you're so retarded it's not even funny. when this is the typical level of intelligence of the "ukraine will retake everything" fanboy it makes me feel very confident that my assessment is correct, unfortunately
Are you purposefully ignoring everything Ukraine has done up to this point and all the fuckups Russia has made? How Russia had initially taken or was contesting nearly the entirety of the Eastern part of Ukraine and how Ukraine completely defeated the Kyiv push and pushed Russia completely out of the North, and then retook 80% of the territory that Russia had taken in the initial invasion? How retarded do you have to be to think that somehow Russia will take more territory that can be held permanently or that Ukraine will somehow be unable to retake the rest of the territory based on how they've shown that they're willing to fight tooth and nail to retake their country?
sorry i stop reading posts the moment it's clear it's written by a retard, as in your case jumping into a discussion. of western tanks being sent to ukraine by replying with an image of old warsaw pact shitters
Okay good, at least I know you're completely ignorant of everything that's taken place in Ukraine up till this point and are only invested in this emotionally as with my original post, I was not implying the tanks are what was going to win the war. I was simply responding to the person who sarcastically claimed that the West was only sending 12 tanks. The Western tanks and IFV's are not going to single handedly win this war for Ukraine. What's going to win this war for Ukraine is their pure hatred and refusal to ever accept Russian rule along with an unending support from the rest of the world. I've said it a million times since the beginning of the war, but there is no possible "win" for Russia at this point. Russia could magically teleport 1,000 T-14's into Kyiv tomorrow, execute Zelensky on national television and they will STILL not have won this war. They have lost far too much material and manpower for something that was just not worth it in the end. The sheer amount of weapons, ammo, irreplaceable tanks/aircraft/specialized armored vehicles, brain drain & lost respect from the world means Russia is fucked for at least 2-3 decades. No-one will want to deal with Russia again and thus the only country who will, China, will be able to leverage that against Russia to scam the shit out of them.
>Russia is fucked for at least 2-3 decades
Try 2-3 generations.
>What's going to win this war for Ukraine is their pure hatred and refusal to ever accept Russian rule along with an unending support from the rest of the world.
kek ok nice opinion
>No-one will want to deal with Russia again and thus the only country who will, China, will be able to leverage that against Russia to scam the shit out of them
countries are dealing with them mid-crisis out of personal interest, imagine believing they'll stop for decades just to please america when they can't even force a member of their alliance to stop doing so
>kek ok nice opinion
Ah yes, an opinion, because Ukraine totally hasn't made it well known to the world just how much they hate Russia and how they are willing to eradicate every last Russian soldier from Ukrainian soil no matter the cost. You are sounding more and more like either a 4chan retard or an actual vatnik, because no sane person can look at what has happened in the war thus far and somehow delude themselves into thinking that Russia is winning or that Ukraine will "give up".
>Ukraine totally hasn't made it well known to the world just how much they hate Russia and how they are willing to eradicate every last Russian soldier from Ukrainian soil no matter the cost.
that's not the opinion part dumbass
re read your statement i quoted here
and try to figure out the opinion part yourself
You said, and I quote, "kek ok nice opinion" underneath what I said of:
>What's going to win this war for Ukraine is their pure hatred and refusal to ever accept Russian rule along with an unending support from the rest of the world.
Learn to structure your post if you were trying to instead say "kek nice opinion" to the second part of my post of that the rest of the world will not deal with Russia.
lmao you're truly dumb as shit
stop posting anytime
Who's gonna drive those vehicles? These days we're witnessing an hololocaust.
More like hoholcaust
>It's very likely Ukraine has no offensive capabilities and will never retake any territory.
Just like in Kharkiv and Herson, vatmoron.
>The only retards that constantly shit on Russia are fags with a Russia complex.
>It's very likely Ukraine has no offensive capabilities and will never retake any territory.
>The coming spring/summer will remove any doubts.
Two more weeks gay
Yeah I wouldn’t worry about it. Hey guys let’s just have a few beers down at the bar? We can talk about all this “counteroffensive” stuff in two weeks. Man I’m feeling sleepy, better hit the hay!
>coming spring/summer will remove any doubts
Only Ukies will be receiving tons of new weapons for at least another 10 years. Have fun with your two weeks special military operation Kremlin gay lol.
>The only retards that constantly shit on Russia are fags with a Russia complex.
>It's very likely Ukraine has no offensive capabilities and will never retake any territory.
>The coming spring/summer will remove any doubts.
SOURCE : VODKA BOTTLE
Case in point
seek help retard
Fuck you and fuck putin and fuck your spam. Get off this board you retarded vatmoron cunt. Russia has lost its shitty war and you can now fuck off.
You're not well but most importantly low IQ
You're face is low IQ
I see a lot of MSM noise about the imminent Ukrainian offensive but personally I also find the concept hard to believe. With so many metrics in this conflict just up in the air its hard to say with certainty. The deeper Ukraine penetrates eastward the greater the extend of the contact line. Ukraine will be spread more thin with every step forward. Especially if they really do intend to enter Crimea.
>I see a lot of MSM noise about the imminent Ukrainian offensive but personally I also find the concept hard to believe.
This. When CNN says "the expected counter-offensive" it's almost certainly misinformation.
The real plan is likely to keep enticing Putin to invest more and more energy into gaining just meters per month until Russia is primed for a CIA backed revolution.
I do think the major limiting factor in Ukraine being more progressive in its offensives has been the weather. I'm cautiously optimistic that as the snows thaw and we move past mud season Ukraine sees yet again quite a lot of forward momentum.
Could always be psyops. "We are about to attack somewhere soon. It would be a real shame if you diverted your troops else where and left open a gap. 🙂 So just stay put and wait for our attack it will come soon trust me bro"
Thus you bind Thier troops in while you sit back and relax.
Kinda like Russia does with Belarus. The threat of a potential blyatzkrieg 2.0 Attack binds troops.no matter how real it is
>Ukraine will be spread more thin with every step forward. Especially if they really do intend to enter Crimea.
This would be true, if Russia had a solid connection to Crimea right now. Theres a very good reason glavsets initially bragged about how easily Russia could repair kerch bridge, then fell completely silent on it. As of now, the main lines of supply to the Southern Coast comes from Russia, rather than from the South
>fell completely silent on it
Lol. Russia isn't Ukraine. They do rather than cry endlessly. And then from that you infer some bullshit story that has no connection with reality.
drive some tanks over it
Only way the war ends this year is if both sides utterly fail their objectives which seems increasingly likely. After Bahmut the Kramatorsk line seems like an insurmountable obstacle and the ukies may well get bogged down trying to retake Zaporizhia.
Getting a bit ahead of ourselves aren't we Ramesh
The likelihood of a repeated Russian withdrawal isn't negligible. They've really exhausted their vehicles and supply by forcibly taking Bakhmut. This means there's going to be gaps in the frontline, and if Ukraine manages to exploit one, it's likely to cause a rout and make defense unsustainable in large swaths of occupied territory. Yes, Ukraine doesn't have much maneuver capability, but neither does Russia, and only one of them is getting fresh supply of modern vehicles.
>They've really exhausted their vehicles and supply by forcibly taking Bakhmut
>blocks your path
Nothin' personal HAFO
what the fuck is that?
The newly reconstituted 1st Guards Tank Army primary mbt
An MTLB with an old twin-25mm 2M-3 naval AA mount bubba'd onto the top instead of a proper AFV turret.
WW2 anti-drone capabillties
thanks for the chortle, anon
>the whole vehicle has to turn to aim left and right
>tall enough to be seem from miles away
I can't wait for these to reach the front, I wonder how high these towers will fly when shot.
Why didn't they just pull the guns out and put them on a new mount?
because they're retarded.
I think the russians misunderstood what CROWS mean, you weren't supposed to install a crows nest
this isn't a video game. russia has a full blown military economy set up right now. ukraine has a patchwork of gibs.
>is welding naval turrets to 60 year old chassis
Technically speaking once you've reached the point where you're having to cannibalize what little economy you have left just to send out a few scrap tanks, you are technically in a full blown military economy. A really shitty one sure, but still a military economy.
>russia has a full blown military economy set up right now
I doubt they can make any progress around Donbabwee in the east. Maybe north of Luhansk but Idk. But around Melitopol I think its possible which lead to a exposed Crimea. I rather bet on Crimea than on Donbabwee, too many Russians are here. It's all of the concentration of the Russian Army, if we see a counteroffensive it's on the frontline which got neglected for idotic city battles like Bakhmut
Melitopol makes the most sense to me. At an absolute minimum anything Russian west of there is fucked if a successful counter offensive occurs there, and shaping operations already seem like they're underway with the recent missile strikes on Russian forces in Melitopol.
Yeah its similar to the same pattern in summer 2022. Failure of a russian offensives, weeks long missile strikes campaign to wear the russians down and a slow neglection of the front for other operations
Ukraine will be hitting Transnistria and securing Moldova from any coup attempts. Without NATO boots on the ground and NATO planes in the sky they have no hope of retaking Melitopol. Screen cap this.
>Ukraine will be hitting Transnistria and securing Moldova from any coup attempts.
This time for real.
>Without NATO boots on the ground and NATO planes in the sky they have no hope of retaking Melitopol
I don't know about that. I certainly want Ukraine to win, but I'm a bit less addict to hopium than a lot of posters here. I wouldn't say that Ukraine can completely destroy the Russian defensive lines and take Melitopol in 3 days with a 100:1 k/d ratio, but I would not say that it's impossible either. I think that if they play their hand intelligently they can pull it off.
The next Ukrainian offensive will give us a good picture of what they can and can't do. Until then, it's pretty much all speculation based on previous offensives that were done under very different conditions
Of course they can't take it in 3 days, I don't think anyone, even the most avid NAFO armchair "general" thinks that. But Ukraine certainly has the momentum behind them. Russia is losing vast amounts of irreplaceable resources and is a shell of its former self and if anything Ukraine has been getting STRONGER the more the war goes on from all the continued Western support. It's funny how vatniks somehow think that Western support will dry up when it's simply going to continue to ramp up until Russia is defeated. The entire Western world has now rallied behind the idea that Russia has to go. Expect production of military items to increase over the next 6-12 months.
We fucking gave Russia a chance to integrate with the world after the collapse of the USSR. Even after Chechyna, Serbia, & 2014 Crimea, we STILL gave them chances, and now, there will be no more chances. Russia must be bled dry and made to be unable to wage war for at least several decades. Unfortunately that means that Russia cannot get a swift defeat and must instead be made to lose over time. If we wanted Russia dead NOW, Ukraine would have the best of the best equipment & potentially on the ground NATO support, but by doing things this way we can cause Russia to drain their vast stocks of ammo and irreplaceable smart munitions & equipment.
China really is going to fuck Russia in the ass within the next few years huh. As China is the only country willing to do large amounts of business with Russia, that lets China set the terms to any deals. And it would be hilarious if Russians actually think of the Chinese as allies, because I can guarantee the Chinese don't see the Russians as allies.
yeah real shit, I can't see this alliance between russia and china being favorable.
sure, yes, in the short term they're getting more money to fund their war against Ukraine, but in the long run?
Who the fuck else is gonna trade with Russia except for China?
Who the fuck else is gonna buy out all those resources in return for economic gain?
They're playing the long game here, and I can guarantee that whether they win or lose this shit, Russia is gonna start feeling a lot of political pressure from China in more than just the economic sector.
But Vatniks won't see that until its too late and Northern China is restored to the chinese through "rightful historical claims" rather than lawful agreements like the russians had with Ukraine
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes
>I’m less addicted to hopium
>I wouldn’t rule out Ukraine taking Melitopol in 3 days with a 100:1 KD
I hate PrepHoleucks so fucking much its unreal. Ukraine is waiting for the mud times in the east to prevent fighting a two front war. They are going to trust the mud to prevent any Russian advance to take advantage of them getting involved in Moldova. They hope to have it cleared up before the mud dries. Also, anyone thinking this conflict is anything more than a scaled up drunken Slav bar brawl is retarded and full of PrepHoleopium on either side. There are no grand set piece battles here.
>I wouldn’t rule out Ukraine taking Melitopol in 3 days with a 100:1 KD
I think you misinterpreted what I said. What I meant to say is that I don't think it's impossible for Ukraine to take Melitopol, but I don't believe that it would a walk in the park; a quick victory with few casualties.
if they can the next half year will demonstrate that after mud season comes to an end. On one hand ziggers have been depleting their strength for absolutely fuck all, on the other the terrain is highly conductive for armored manouver warfare which neither side has demonstrated knows how to really do.
As much as we laugh at zigger meat and metal getting shredded by AT mines/accurate arty/mortar or hand helds with the occasional armor on armor kill, dont forget that can work both ways. They might have depleted their reserves but you can still sit in trenches behind mine fields and call in arty strikes with a skeleton crew
Final puzzle is that realistically there are only two major places there can be large scale attacks. The slice between Mariupol and Melitopol which pretty much everbody and their dog anticipates or doing a straight punch into upper Lughanda and then cutting down towards it. Attacking directly Donbawe is eight years of built up trenchlines while Kherson has the river which might as well be a solid steel wall in how easy it is to cross vs how easy it is to defend on the other bank. Ukranians dont have any amphib assault capacity nor experience so any dollar store D-day is out of the question
Good post, I think the offensive is mostly to serve propaganda purposes. Ukraine will get it's territory back if it can bend Russias arm at the negotiating table, not the battlefield.
I agree that under conventional warfare the situation for Ukraine is poor. But remember, they’re fighting convicts and conscripts with virtually no training and little supplies. It’s not hard to imagine them routing en masse under a sustained push.
Except this is 2022+1 and trench lines mean dick all for modern combined arms assaults or just like running them over with bulldozers. Have fun playing in the dirt with no supplies or food while the front skips you entirely jabrony.
Tell me - why did Russia make those retreats, exactly?
Like, they just wanted to, duh. Goodwill gesture.
>Ukraine can't make counteroffensives
>well except for this one but it doesn't count
>and those other times where Russia ran like pussy bitches from territory it claimed was "eternally" part of their nation were just for giggles
OP here, forgot to mention, sub 80 IQlets need not reply.
The Russian northern assault wasn't a real offensive, more of a skirmish than an actually offensive. These idiots went from the Russian border straight to Kyiv ignoring everything around them. They expected Ukraine to surrender by fake sieging Kyiv but were forced to withdrawal because their plan didn't work. As for Kherson, they abandoned because of the river separated the two regions. All Ukraine had to do was blow up a bridge and Russian forces in Kherson were fucked and no air support would help them.
Sounds like cope and Russian losses to me.
It's not cope but I'm being real with you. I support any country defending itself. We'll see what happens during spring or summer. If their offensive's fail, then they only win by Russian withdrawal or negotiations.
Attrition can cause Russian forces to collapse again, especially if pootpoot follows up with his tradition of ignoring a problem until it blows up. But this can only happen under specific conditions.
Yes, that's the only viable way Ukraine can succeed retaking its territory militarily
their best guards units (like the 4th) they had got absolutely mauled under Sumy alone. Almost to the point of stopping existing. Calling it a skirimish is about the same level as calling it a "feint"
That’s because they’re weren’t engaging against Ukrainian forces. Their own propaganda machine convinced them they would face no resistance and would be paraded as heroes liberating Ukraine from Nazis. It’s their own damn fault, they entered villages expecting not to be fired on while Ukrainian civilians were blowing their shit up with anti tank weapons.
>The Russian northern assault wasn't a real offensive, more of a skirmish than an actually offensive.
Uh huh. You do realise that siad northern assualt included entire elite units of the Russians being wiped out? Up to and including 4th Guards Tank getting smashed to pieces at Trostianets. Yeah, a whole tank division shattered. Quite the "skirmish," that.
...dude. 4th GTD wasn't smashed to pieces in a day, They had far, far, FAR more than enough time to realise that they were in a real fight and adjsut accordingly. They still got fucking flattened. And not by some TDF militias ambushing them in villages, they got flattened by a concerted mechanised counteroffensive defeating them in a classic, open setpiece battle. You're delusional.
the kharkov counteroffensive involved like 10 tanks lol mechanized offensive my ass
>the kharkov counteroffensive involved like 10 tanks lol mechanized offensive my ass
Seemed like enough of an offensive for the vantik gays to flee... and leave behind dozens of tanks and AFVs to be captured 🙂
yeah there was like 3 people for every one afv there. probably the biggest blunder of the whole war
To trick the Banderites and their western sponsors into thinking they could win
Depends on the speed western equipment gets delivered. Ukraine's BMP1 & T64BV army just isn't capable of meaningful counteroffensives fighting a mobilized Russia. Just yesterday Ukraine tried to do a small counterattack in Bakhmut and got blown to bits by arty
post eternally-Russian Kherson
Ukraine took Kherson because of western equipment (HIMARS). Kherson and Kharkov were circumstantial and the reasons they were succesful cant be replicated anywhere else. Why do you think Zaluzhny has been asking primarily for AFVs for months now? He himself has stated that without more western armor counteroffensives are impossible
Aren't they getting shitloads of advanced Western armor? I've seen webms of a bunch of tanks and other combat vehicles sitting in the docks at Poland.
Saw the thread about that the other day. If I remember right,
One of those videos supposedly out of Poland was allegedly actually equipment slated for an American unit in South Korea.
they wont be getting their abrams in significant numbers for a while theyll likely only be getting euro tanks short term
Ukraine has to launch a spring offensive. They've been sent vast amount of hardware they haven't even used yet and training lots of reserves. They NEED to show that they can pull off more Khersons and Kharkivs to justify the continual flow of arms and demoralize the Russians.
If the Ukrainian spring offensive fails then the conflict will freeze for sure. Either way, it's habbenin
Yes it would be a 2014 re-run. Ukraine better accept this minor defeat like Finland did back in the days and try to join western institution ASAP, rather than remaining in limbo and leaving itself vulnerable for yet another invasion.
Russia occupies majority of the discovered gas fields, which would be a great boon to Ukraine's future economic prosperity. I don't think they want to give those up easily.
One thing is wanting another is getting
If they want enough they may just end up getting them. Wouldn't be surprised if a condition for military support in the backroom deals is that western companies extract the gas after the war.
Dude just give away half your coastline and mineral resources
dude just be embroiled in a forever war you can't win
>implying hard that western shitheads would die for ukraine
The vehicles have barely started to arrive. I don't expect the southern offensive before August.
Ukraine has been pretty open that they're putting together an armor division with NATO equipment to spearhead an offensive, and I imagine it'll probably rip through whatever line it's pointed at. But it hasn't happened until it happens so
Like.... one theory as to why it doesn't look like Ukraine is putting everything on the table (assuming speculation is true), is that as hard-pressed as Ukrainian forces look to be, it's intended to just be a particularly intense holding action to wait out Russia's ability to wage an offensive, and if Ukraine can hold with a thin line while prepping a counterpunch with fresh and well-trained forces, it stands a better chance of making gains. Success or failure of the defensive operation isn't predicated on retention of Bakhmut, so much as on retention of sufficient offensive-capable forces for the next stage of operations.
Or they're pulling a Finland, are on their absolute last legs, and are posturing to maximize their position in behind-the-scenes negotiations. Who knows! The fog of war is intense and no one who actually has meaningful insight is going to be posting about it here.
you think the Americans will keep sending offensive systems to a country that is capitulating? cope
Huh? Why would America send weapons to Russia?
snap to reality any time sir
No you don't understand Russia almost has Bakhmut fully encircled. In two more weeks the city will fall, for realsies this time.
No you don't understand, if russia only controls 16% of Ukraine it will collapse for realsies this time
That's where the goal is nowadays.
At the beginning I thought it was 100% but I lost track cause Russian War goals proved to be some kind of.... dynamic.
yes very shameful. not collapsing because of it regardless
OP here now this real cope not what I wrote. The main objective was always to conquer Ukraine.
>The main objective was always to conquer Ukraine.
>source: my ass
we wont know this for sure until documents leak probably until years after the war. but even if the main goals of the invasion were just the crimea corridor putin of course wouldnt say no to any additional territory his forces could hold. though i believe if the ukrainian offensive fails russia will agree to have negotiations and try to legalize their conquered territory in some form or another and ill consider that proof enough for my hypothesis.
Your cope isn't fooling anyone.
He's making good points, you're just seething because your preconceived notion is being challenged.
Not really. Well before Russia invaded Ukraine I called it that their conventional military is a joke. 1 year later into the 3 day Special Military Operation, I am vindicated.
i also always thought that 3rd world country armies are shit regardless of the hype, that doesn't exclude that the monke rush had multiple objectives one of which being securing the landbridge to Crimea at the bare minimum
bro what do you think "denazification and demilitarization" of Ukraine means?
we always knew.
russia blatently said so.
and then potato man leaked their plans to continue invading other nations hitler style to reform the USSR.
I find it interesting how you're capable of using a computer
do you even know what there were goals were? clearly not
From Kyiv in 3 days to maybe all Donbas, an area occupied by totally not Russia since 2014, by the end of March 2023.
What's that? We can't take actually take all of Donbas by then, okay what about all of Bakhmut by the end of spring? Hah take that NATO mission accomplished!
Either Ukraine does a successfull counteroffensive in spring/summer, or this war will go on for 1-2 more years. Either way, as long as western support remains active, Russia can not win, since they cant inflict high enough Manpower losses, or capture critical territory. Ukraine simply needs to wait to win.
yes, yes. We know you like to repeat lies until they become "true" like the great red tzar Lenin beat into you. Does not mean the normal world lets reality be memory holed
>seeing how quickly that whole kyiv attack was abandoned id say it was really just an attempt to hit the lottery and also achieve a regime change while youre already at it with the whole crossing borders thing.
Putin is a gambler and an opportunist, that is true. But if I'm in charge of a country and order an invasion of my neighbor and try to bumrush the capital city, I'm gonna intend to take it.
You have a superpowe complex. Seek psychiatric help ASAP.
I don't even know what that's supposed to mean. You think you're talking a "vatnig"?
Again heed my advice for your own sake.
>No you guys I'm totally not a vatmoron but,
>proceeds to suck Putin's dick like he's some kind of genius.
You have to be able to end the war to achieve your wargoals and thats where the problem is for Putin.
>i find it interesting how people overlook the fact that putin has achieved his war goals
You mean the water supply that is essentially turned off now because most of it is based around infrastructure right on the frontline or in easy artillery range? You're being delusional, vatmoron.
It's undecided. Russia has clearly lost the war but it remains to be seen if Ukraine is capable of winning or we just end up in another 8 year stalemate.
I doubt they have the materiel or skills to actually drive Russia out of the major cities, especially areas they have controlled since 2014. I think the strategy will be similar to Kherson, damage supply hubs and disrupt lines until you create a gesture of goodwill. It's why ironically Crimea is easier to take back than Donetsk despite the defensive advantages Crimea has. If they can secure a slice of the Azov sea in Zaporozhye they can cut off overland supply lines and also start striking the rail line and road deck of the Kerch bridge. They have nothing that can actually bring the bridge down from range but you just have to degrade it, similar to the Dnipro bridges in Kherson.
But to take Donetsk back would require a complete collapse of the Russian military which I think is pretty unlikely. Local collapses like we saw last year, absolutely.
please there's no need to repeat perun verbatim, russia has secured for itself the so desired landbridge along with strategically placed ports in the black sea for centuries
>Kharkov is forever Russi-ACK!
>Lyman is forever Russi-ACK!
>Izyum is forever Russi-ACK!
>Kherson is forever Russi-ACK!
I'm beginning to see a pattern here, and beginning to think you suck at pattern recognition almost as much as Russia does at fighting.
>cant into cause analysis
>u sux at pattern recognition
kek ok, dont eat icecream unless you want to fall victim of a shark attack
>Russia has clearly lost the war but it remains to be seen if Ukraine is capable of winning or we just end up in another 8 year stalemate.
bro are you retarded? This war has been devastating for Ukraine. In the last figure I remember it being claimed that approximately 20% of the country was occupied, and even with the most conservative estimates, the total Ukrainian causalities number in the tens of thousands.
yeah yeah. We have heard this before. And russians are trading at 10:1 in their advantage while in the open attacking. Russia stronk
You do know repeating a lie enough does still not make it true
Well, he didn't bring up the fact that much of the Ukrainian population fled, specifically the parts of the population that create and maintain families, the women. Millions of people on both sides have fled their countries.
Unless Russia just do a grand retreat of all occupied Ukraine*~~*~~))
>both the Kherson and Kyiv warzones were both regained by Russian withdrawals
well then the solution is simple, just do whatever it is they did to force the Russians to withdraw from those regions in the first place, and keep doing it until they have withdrawn from Ukraine altogether
>just do whatever it is they did to force the Russians to withdraw from those regions in the first place, and keep doing it until they have withdrawn from Ukraine altogether
ok we'll tell ukraine to position more dnipro rivers across russian position, slava ukraini
the longer Ukraine waits the harder it becomes, Russia has been making MASSIVE dig in's including giant anti tank ditches and fortifications
Russia is digging trenches in the Crimean beaches, against a country with no navy. A lot of their defense are for domestic propoganda, with little military use. Remember those feather-light tank traps, that Ukrainians could just roll off the road.
Ukraine has to cut off the land bridge to Crimea. That is the only way to keep Crimeans from getting enough Russian supplies to be content with Russian rule.
For all intents and purposes, the eastern part of Ukraine is just a land bridge to Russia.
In 2014 Crimea had no electricity for months. They would be glad to starve for Putin.
yeah but it's not 2014 anymore. Crimea has had eight years of bullshit government by Russia and a single damn bridge to supply the whole island, and all so Russia can have fucking Sevastopol. The sentiment has changed as people can't go with food shortages for literal years
Russia can't take Bakhmut for six months, even relying on meat waves. It has huge problems with ammunition. They threw absolutely everything at Bakhmut, and now look at Vuhledar, the marines had to save shells for a week and as a result 2 brigades were destroyed and are now reassembled from scratch with T-62s and BTR-50, I imagine. When your frontline stretches for a thousand kilometers and you only have enough resources to half-encircle a small town, it only means that you are doomed to collapse rather sooner than later
if russia had stubbornly defended kherson instead of leaving (which was the right call) we'd still have "2 more weeks til kherson falls" threads despite being a total lost cause for russia
This map does not include Crimea which is missing the bigger picture
> Let's look at things realistically here, both the Kherson and Kyiv warzones were both regained by Russian withdrawals not reclaimed by a Ukrainian offensive.
Okay then by your own admission its easy cause you dont even need an offensive to take territory back from you vatniks.
Your entire thread is a huge propaganda statement on how uncomprehensibly bad russian army is that they will fold on their own eventually, without the ukranians having to do anything.
Good job, if you get lucky you get a bullet in the back of your head for treason instead of being sent to bahkmut to suffer.
not reading that cope op
If Russia wants to keep throwing bodies at the defensive line, no.
The thing is, if the West is behind the idea, Ukraine can just keep shelling the Russian occupied regions for all eternity. Territory is only a gain if you can do something positive with it. If you can't build anything on it without it getting blown up, and you need to keep throwing new bodies at the line just to keep the Ukrainians from walking over the corpses of all the dead to take it back, you haven't won anything by holding the territory, you're just in a constant state of loss.
If the West wants to cheaply drain Russia of resources to ensure they aren't a threat for the next 1000 years, they can just keep supplying Ukraine with artillery shells. Then Russia is faced with either letting the West drain it of resources or giving up the occupied territories that are being made useless to them.
Lots oh globohomo cope in here.
Some people are now saying that the Russian offensive has started....now...cause the equipment and troop casualties has skyrocketed.
I thought this was the offensive that has been going on for almost a month or more?
Are people still somehow still convinced that Russia is "holding back" or "the real troops are right around the corner!" Like how last summer was supposed to be when the "real" Russian offensive will happen....
I don't see that at all. I only see Russia spinning mud and flailing about, with only the main gains being made by Wagner who haven't even taken as of yet Bakhmut after throwing an ungodly amount of conscripts at it.
russia just like ukraine has no offensive potential, they are stuck until either side accepts reality or is attrited to being incapable of holding the line
Ukraine took back substantial amounts of territory shortly before winter. Then stopped and consolidated and has maintained generally static lines throughout the winter. This will likely continue through rasputitsa, and then once the ground is dry and firm they will resume decommunization of the Donbass.
The more important question, I think, is if Russia can continue taking more land- or if it even wants to. I think ideally they would take everything east of the Dnieper river. That's a place you could set up more gnarly static defenses for the future which is really what Russia wants. People lose focus of what this war is really about for Russia. It's to create more defensible borders- so that Russia can defend more land with fewer men.
It's much easier for Ukraine to maintain the defensive than it is for Ukraine to go on the attack. Offensives are always incredibly costly in men, supplies, weapons, vehicles and logistics capabilities.
If Russia wants to take the whole of Ukraine, it is purely a political decision. Because Russia truly does not need to take all of Ukraine to feel comfortable with the outcome of the war.
>Everything east of Dnieper Riber
Sorry are we on month 8 now of the battle of Bakhmut or month 9 now? To tell you the truth all the two more weeks postings since last year I've kinda lost track. Anyways, doesn't really matter I guess but if that's the plan, then good luck to Russia. They're gonna need it.
I think it 100% is the plan. The Dnieper river is massive. Rail lines to Crimea and the black sea. Getting a warm water port, taking the resources east of the Dnieper would be a major victory for them and they get to take the strategic resources of that region + it sets them up for the future. A nice big militarized border with NATO with deep static defenses which take less men to defend.
Belarus would still be a buffer state and
Neither nation has the birth rate to support this war, but considering the amount of land the Russia must manage, it certainly doesn't have enough men for this war. Russia is stretched across it's border at all times and most all of Russia lives in the southern most parts of the belt.
Of course some extremists would like to take all of Ukraine, but it would be significantly smarter for the Russians to simply take what's easiest to defend and leave the rest to NATO. I don't think they look at Ukraine as a country, I think they look at it as a proto-NATO member that if they don't steal it now, they will never be able to steal it once it has article 5 protection.
I don't think it's a crazy opinion to say that no invasion could ever come from Finland, and Belarus does a good job of being a buffer state and a little guard dog for Russia.
The only point NATO has from there is Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. So psy ops -> failed state -> UN peacekeepers is more than likely not going to be an option. Belarus can attack from the south and Russia can attack from the East.
If they can tie up the Dnieper, then their strategic thinkers would more than likely consider that a massive victory. I think the war has gotten so costly for Russia that if they made it that far they would push for peace immediately.
>some extremists would like to take all of Ukraine
we all saw russian armed forces and riot police dead on the streets of kyiv
Yes, but does it make sense to take more? Not worth the resources.
does it look like russia gives a fuck about throwing resources away in its revanchism?
>muh resources!!!1111 muh warm water port gorillion defensive border chungus!!11
Taking into account the 1m+ who fled and died, Russia's status as an international pariah, and the demilitarization of the RAF, who's going to:
A) Extract those resources
B) Buy those resources
C) Defend those resources on a massive border with a hyper-militarized vengeful neighbour
I'll leave you some time to think about it.
The defensive border shit is BS rhetoric, it literally does not matter in the age of nukes, especially going back to C)
Yes, left bank Ukraine is the new "cope" goal, but making up retroactive justifications to make Russia sound smarter has already been done before, in 2014 when the glowmorons got burnt in Odesa and BTFO in Kharkiv, reminder they didn't want *only* Donbabwe and Luganda.
Truth is simple, it's literally just
, revanchism and butthurt over shit like Holodomor and Ukrainian history contradicting Russian's raison d'etre (reminder the victory celebration 3 days in published by state news spent half of its article length malding about Ukraine being anti-Russia claiming to be real Rus'), any other shit like capturing big human population and resources is just a bonus, but at now the cope is at full scale.
This is why you need to be able to tell the difference between war propaganda and actual factual events. You want the truth, you pay attention to what actually happened and what is happening.
>the bumrush to the capital demonstrated how much the Russians actually suck in reality
>one way or another, did the russians know how much they sucked
I don't think they did. I think they were high off of their own supply, very clearly.
However, for a moment we should play a mental game. Imagine if the Russians did capture Kiev/Kyiv. What would happen then?
>fuck all nothing
>guerilla fighting and occupation would thrust Russia out of Ukraine
>just because you take the government doesn't mean you have taken the country
>the rest of the country still exists, kiev/kyiv only exists on the dnieper
>half the country still exists in the west
>HEAVY guerilla fighting in pro-ukrainian territory that is occupied
So far it has been easiest for Russia to occupy territories which historically favor Russia moreso over their central government in kiev/kyiv. This is logical.
Zelensky and the central government could get iced tomorrow, they would simply be replaced and the capital would be moved. The Ukrainians would keep fighting. Ukrainians will fight to the very last person to stop the Russians from conquering Ukraine.
There is no timeline where the Ukrainians stop fighting or stop getting western military support/recon/logistics.
I'm pretty confident that it was always the plan. Take the river, leave the rest. The hardest part of taking the river is taking the capital. Russia is just going to keep fighting in Bakhmut and the surrounding area until they can get into a position where they can strike the capital from 3 different directions.
It is a psy op to believe that nukes are the only thing that matters with superpowers, non nuclear confrontation is still possible and that's why you still need conventional militaries and territory to defend.
>There is no timeline where the Ukrainians stop fighting or stop getting western military support/recon/logistics.
I mean, Russia could always just initiate a nuclear countervalue First Strike on NATO and I'm pretty sure that would stop Western aid to Ukraine for good.
The problem is that you know, you just started a nuclear war and the other side has vastly better ability to survive and retaliate in kind.
If you think we'd stop trying to kill each other just because nukes are in the air, you will be pleasantly surprised when the exact opposite happens.
My point is that it seems to me that the goal was always to control the Dnieper, evidenced by the failed assault on the capital at the beginning. Once you control the capital, is it not much easier to control the rest of the river downstream?
Really think about trying to cross over that river when every last mile is militarized and filled with static defenses. It would suck dick for anyone who attempts it. I don't think either side would want to fight over it and it's a natural defensive barrier that yet again, is easy to defend.
China or the U.S could easily make moves to cross that river even if it was heavily defended, but Russia and Ukraine? Snowballs chance in hell.
>If you think we'd stop trying to kill each other just because nukes are in the air, you will be pleasantly surprised when the exact opposite happens.
I highly doubt either NATO or Russia would be able to conduct a renewed conventional war in the aftermath of a nuclear exchange.
NATO's greatest source of military strength is the United States and we can safely assume that the Russians have every port capable of taking a container ship and every runway capable of taking a strategic airlifter at the top of their strike lists so even if Western Europe was completely untouched, NATO's military capability would still be essentially cut in half.
Russia, well Russian infrastructure is already borderline dysfunctional on a good day, so it's safe to assume that American Minuteman missiles turning their rail hubs into rail trails wouldn't really help that. Even if their conventional forces did survive such an exchange largely intact, they wouldn't be able to move anywhere except on foot.
Russian nukes are very obviously not going to actually hit their targets. They can't launch precision missiles 40 miles away, they aren't gonna be able to land them where they want on the other side of the planet, IF they work at all.
Nukes are not the end all some people make them out to be. A nuke can vaporize everything within a mile if detonated at ground level, but an artillery shell has a kill diameter of 100 meters. It doesn't take that many artillery shells to do damage to a similar amount of area. Nukes are far better at taking out civilian infrastructure than it is at taking out military target.
>Russia is just going to keep fighting in Bakhmut and the surrounding area until they can get into a position where they can strike the capital from 3 different directions.
“Victory” in Bahkmut doesn’t open a road to the capital. It opens a road to a pincer movement for which the other pincer half was dunked in drawn butter and eaten over half a year ago!
Victory in Bahkmut leads to 30 other Bahkmut style battles, because Bahkmut’s only importance to the strategic situation in Ukraine is Russia’s willingness to suffer 200+ casualties a day for 9 months for minimal gains that have almost no purpose.
The idea that the path to victory leads through Bahkmut is a joke, and it is this understanding that leads Ukraine to husband their strength elsewhere instead grinding themselves to paste in order to retake the place or the next shithole village to the east.
Its a fairly common thing that in strong man governments simply killing the head collapses them quickly. I think its simply a lack of imagination on part of Russia that they thought rolling into the capital and icing/capturing Zelensky would instantly win them the war, as opposed to the Ukrainian military just continuing on like any even mildly democratic institution does without its leader.
Imagine for a moment a country thinking that killing George Bush during the Iraq war would have stopped the war in any way.
how does >muh pariah state last for? a decade or two? meanwhile they secured their strategic goal of owning the best strategically placed ports in the black see "forever".
the truth is the west can assure real russian defeat any moment but they're too gutless to do that, particularly the 2 angloid acronym countries who had the legal right to intervene for nearly a decade but conveniently decided to feign ignorance of a certain memorandum they signed, and so you PrepHoleope that russia lost because perun said so, which is only partially correct.
It’s been 70 years for NK.
NK is a country with nothing to offer and an irrelevant market, unlike russia
Russia doesn’t have significantly more to offer the world than North Korea did. That the market in NK is worth less than Russia’s is a function of being a pariah state for a year instead of 70. Fundamentally, North Korea should have a stronger market than South Korea.
>Russia doesn’t have significantly more to offer the world than North Korea did.
get that russia complex checked man
North Korea in the late 1950s was more industrialized than Russia is today. North Korea in the 1950s and 1960s had a vibrant and growing population. Both have energy resources (though I’ll admit that natural gas is better than coal) and metal ore deposits to be exploited.
Russia has more raw material wealth, but so do many shitholes in Africa which we can also ignore. North Korea, when it first became a pariah state, had far superior human capital than modern Russia, and the human capital is more important than the resources.
The world is pivoting away from fossil fuels including natural gas, and other, less distasteful, nations have sufficient mineral resources.
"the world" more like the globalists, lmao
nice cope retard unfortunately it's not the 1950s anymore and globalization is in full swing
russia has a 140m people strong market nk is 1/7 of that besides having been in the shitter for a century.
facts: many western company never bothered to leave the russian market and didn't suffer any consequences in the west (nobody cared enough to stop buying furniture at leroy merlin or groceries at auchan for instance). give it a few years and most company will correctly estimate that the calculated risk of having access to this huge market in the time being outweighs the possible losses if/when the next tsar decides to carve a piece of land out somewhere for his legacy.
facts: russia has an abundance of resources (way more than that tiny shitstain on the map called north korea) it can sell on the cheap and many countries in their cold geopolitical calculus will continues doing business with russia, as they are now and many more will join over the years/decades (including the eu and ukraine itself) and regardless of america's interest, whose grandstanding in the world hasn't been lower in a century as evidenced by everybody whatever the fuck they want giving little fucks about old uncle sam who can't be bother to impose his will anymore and only imposes sanction he can only partially enforce.
>how establishing a corridor to crimea was the original goal for putins invasion
it clearly wasn't though
i think russia's actions speak louder than some fucking idiot's claims on PrepHole
funny part is, if you remove the "in my opinion" parts, this is a very written rudimentary analysis
Ukraine does have limited offensive potential
If Russia can hold of their counter attacks this year then a negotiated end or at least ceasefire seems likely
But if Ukraine is successful in the 2nd year it seems unlikely the war will wind down
>We shit on the Russian military a lot here but do the Ukrainians have the military capabilities to take back their lost territory?
The only branch of the Ukrainian military that is objectively weaker (fewer assets in the field) as opposed to objectively stronger (more assets in the field) since the start of the war is the Ukrainian Air Force and even then, air defense is able to pick up a considerable amount of the slack and Russia's Air Force as been weakened to the point where they're unwilling to risk their ever-dwindling stockpiles of aircraft (keep in mind, most planes in the Russian Air Force were last manufactured in 1991, same with Ukraine).
Ukraine's prospects to retake territory has only improved while Russia's have only declined, especially with the disastrous misuse of Wagner Group at Bakhmut. Tens of thousands of prisoners who could've have been (albeit haphazardly) used to shore up Russian defenses in the territory they currently already hold or as mobile reserve that could be rushed to hotspots to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs and they were instead wasted on futile frontline assaults on some "literally who" town.
Of course it would be the best war propaganda to say that it was never about the Dnieper river and it was never about creating good conditions to defend Russia in the future, but that, to me, is just information warfare rearing its ugly head. It seems obvious from an unbias perspective that that is exactly what this is about. If we went by these stipulations, then Russia's invasion of Ukraine is already halfway complete if that was in fact the original mission objective.
THE ART OF THE DEAL
Someone could also say, hey no, the war is about this historical issue or this political ideology or this or that. But I don't think it is, I think those things are just a means to an end, justifications to drum up morale and support for both sides. They are tools of each nation state to create fervor and will to sacrifice yourself for the goals of the state. I know many people will try to say that it is about ideas and it is about history but I really think that that's a load of horseshit.
You want to kill the people, sure, but if you just want to genocide and wreak havoc, it is kind of a deranged and unhinged goal, detached from reality. The logistics for it and the means to do it simply aren't there without WW3. There can be no ethnic cleansing or political liquidation of ideological opponents, if it is about memetics and not genetics, or even if it is about both. I view it simply as a means to an end.
Ukraine fights for
>to be welcomed into the "international community"
>to have the protection of NATO
>to stop Russian aggression
>take back our land
>prevent the next Holodomor
>LGBTQ+ rights (if the audience is progressive)
>A future for white families and the continuation of the white race (if you are a nazi)
>Kill russian fascists (if the audience is progressive)
>Stop the mongolian hordes (if the audience is right wing)
Russia fights for
>protection of russia and its people (if audience is right wing or fascist)
>to stop NATO expansion (if audience is right wing or fascist)
>to secure vital strategic resources for russia and its people
>to reunify with their Ukrainian "brothers" (if audience is rightwing)
>to stop western imperialism (if the audience is progressive)
>to denazify ukraine (if the audience is progressive, communist, etc)
>to protect the rights of the LNR, DPR (if the audience is against larger governments)
>to remove the corrupt puppet zelensky
I don't really know what you're trying to say, man. Yeah the motivation changes based on the audience. But the plain black on white fact is that Ukraine is defending and Russia is attacking. And people tend to sympathize with defenders.
Also there is no genocide as such, but Russians have been resettling their own people into occupied lands since the winter war if we're talking about modern times.
What I'm saying is that propaganda and "ideas" are just a means to an end for the people who are actually in control.
Ask yourself how Russia would change if Kyiv/Kiev was in control of the entire Russian federation.
Now ask yourself how Ukraine would change if Russia was in charge of all of Ukraine.
Really, nothing fucking changes. The only things that change are for the people who are around them. Not for their citizens. The countries and nations that are their so-called allies and enemies. Life for your average Ukrainian is not automatically better under NATO vs under Russia and vice verse.
Because they are both corrupt shitholes, and shilling for one side or the other makes you look like an ass as far as I can see.
Okay I see what you're saying now. The thing is, Russia is currently a corrupt oligarchy with military and political power concentrated in Moscow. The country is basically on a revanchist geopolitical course and wants to expand its sphere of influence, which has shrunk severely since the collapse of the Soviet union. But, apart from natural resources, Russia can't offer anything that anyone would want.
Now, Ukraine has been transitioning from a corrupt oligarchy into something else. It's hard to say what, but the matter of fact is that they have shown willingness and capability to change. That's what caused Russia to lash out. Also you claim that things don't change for citizens, but it is a fact that Western Europeans are wealthy and Russians are poor, and it is also a fact that the quality of life in Ukraine will improve with EU integration. It will take some time, though.
So yes, there is a huge difference.
>Ask yourself how Russia would change if Kyiv/Kiev was in control of the entire Russian federation.
Corruption would be a problem that the government is working on, and so would better integration with the world economy. Things would get better, little by little and year by year.
>Now ask yourself how Ukraine would change if Russia was in charge of all of Ukraine.
The corruption would get worse, because it’s how the government consolidates its power. The government would be uninterested in global trade except for what can be used to enrich a small fraction of the population. The economy remains dependent on energy exports, and things get worse, little by little, year by year.
Russia since 2004 or so is a place where hope is every year less than it was before. Even as gas revenues made things look shiny, 2005-2008, it was a worse place to visit or do business than it was in 1997-2004. After gas revenues plummeted, things really went to hell.
I haven’t been back since 2013, but nothing gives me any suHispanicion that things have gotten better in any way.
No they don’t. They may develop the capabilities with Western help but it’s been slow-going. There’s some evidence that this may change in the not-distant future with a bunch of Ukrainians receiving high-quality training along with their high quality Western tanks so that MAYBE a decent tank corps will be born. Then it’s up to the command structure to make proper use of them. If everything works out as we hope the end of the war be quickly approaching.
I don't think you understand just how good you have it and just how bad shit is in the rest of the world. Obviously the 1st world such as Europe and NA are going through some bad inflation shit right now, but that doesn't mean that life elsewhere is magically better. Life in Russia outside of the big cities like Moscow or St. Petersburg is literal mad-max tier hellscape. Same in China where life is only "decent" in the big cities and outside of them it's like stepping back in time. Meanwhile in Europe and NA, life is actually BETTER outside of the major cities. Corruption and crime being rampant in the major cities is one of the leading reasons why people are moving out of them to smaller more peaceful areas.
Machulishchy Drone Cowboy got arrested today
Machulishchy is an air base of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces of the Republic of Belarus located in Machulishchy, Minsk Region, Belarus.
Why vatniks never moved west from Donetsk? Like not even a mile for one whole year?
Russia is showing great restraint in dealing with the Nazis giving the Ukrops many chances to shoot themselves like their hero Adolf Bandera
there has been fighting since 2014, the trenches are basically concrete soviet style apartments.
>russia cheese pizza capital of the world
>also consumes more chud porn than anyone else
>yeah Russia hasn’t won but Ukraine is demolished!
You Russian propagandists are horrible at your job. Not a single westerner cares about Ukraine. Ukraine could turn to molten slag and except for their food exports, no one would care. But for Russia this situation is an existential threat. This war has already turned into a bleeding ulcer. Their economy is shrinking, their young population is either fleeing or getting turned to mince. They no longer have much influence over Europe, and what remains is only because Germany and France are desperate to be seen as serious powers by mediating a European conflict. That fantasy may continue but it will never be actualized. Russian atrocities and the mild winter without Russian gas has totally calcified Western people’s support of Ukraine. The US alone could supply Ukraine in perpetuity. Russia’s only shot, a Hail Mary beyond Hail Mary, is that the GOP takes power and cuts off all support or that China’s leadership have a collective stroke and invade Ukraine along Russia. This is Russia’s Suez Canal: the embarrassing last gasp of a dying power. Only in Russia’s case, they will degrade below Nigeria.
This is a good point
The Russians government functionally created a self fulfilling prophecy by invading and this giving the powers that be in the US enough of sn excuse to intervene beyond the smalls amounts of placating aid given to Ukraine during the Obama and Trump years.
I actually had some retard boomer tell me Maidan was a foreign color revolution. I still remember that thread from 2014 where a Ukraine anon asked if his family heirloom knights armor would protect him on the streets