We have too many threads about whether Putin will nook.

We have too many threads about whether Putin will nook. Let's have a thread about what nooking would actually look like.

Rules are as follows:
>NATO responds to the initial nuclear strikes with overwhelming conventional force. The operational gain from using nuclear weapons must allow a quick and irreversible capture of as much territory as possible.
>Followup nuclear strikes against NATO targets likely to lead to tit-for-tat retaliation or a full scale disarming strike.
>Russia will not have an airforce or navy 48 hours after the first nuclear detonation.

In the scenario pictured, 18 50 kiloton warheads are launched with the aim of destroying every crossing over the Dniper river from Nova Khakovka dam north to Kyiv. All blasts are modeled as surface burst (because we're dam / bridge busting). Local fallout is not sufficient to reach Russia.

  1. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    >NATO responds to the initial nuclear strikes with overwhelming conventional force. The operational gain from using nuclear weapons must allow a quick and irreversible capture of as much territory as possible.
    Ok but you do know NATO can actually attack Russia from basically every direction except central asia

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >except central asia
      Who's gonna tell him?

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Tell him what? Kazakhstan is the central Asian country that borders Russia. Dunno if they dislike Russia enough at the moment to let it be a launch pad for invasion. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan are further away but, again....

  2. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Putin needs to use lowest yield nukes possible, the weakest ones. So small and weak that people calm down after evidence of its low destructive power. He needs to go through a time of normalising "nukes are being used in Ukraine" and slowly increase the yield.

    This strategy is how Iran fights USA and it's really effective. Basically small attacks so that when USA responds it looks like USA is being the aggressor.

    How is it going to look when Putin uses a low yield nuke that barely does any damage or kills many but Biden orders military attacks against Russian units? It'll rally Russians behind their regime. It always works like this. It would be a disaster for Putin to use nukes in any other way.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      A nuke is a nuke, they only go down so far in size. AFAIK the smallest bombs in Russian inventory are 10-50kt dial-a-yield bombs.

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        the smallest nuke ever built has a similar blast radius of a MOAB

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >it always works like this
      Yeah, in all the other nuclear exchanges that have occurred throughout history that's totally how it always works, right?

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        I think you need to work on your reading comprehension or perhaps return back to plebbit

        • 2 months ago
          Anonymous

          You need to work on your writing comprehension. Or basic rational sanity. Because you're either suggesting that Iran is using nukes against the US, or else implying that comparing Iranian strikes against US targets to nuclear warfare isn't a category error. Both of which are equally laughable.

  3. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Here's my take

    >18 50 kiloton
    as in 18 of 50.000 ton?

    Before Monke can actually drop a NOOK.
    Lets check what he needs to do before he can actually Nook
    1. Does he has 50K ton nuke bombs in his arsenal?
    2. Does he has the capability to launch or drop a Nook like that in Ukraine?
    3. is he going to think, hmmm will Nook ruin his banan? if it was in Africa, okay, but we're talking about a country next door.
    4. Does Nook work? we haven't seen Russian do some underground Nook explosion in what?
    excuse me, they don't do undergroun? okay.
    5. lol any sane generals/commander/oligarch gonna let him do that?

    scenario 1. General/Commander/Oligarch decide to Coup Monke, end of scenario 1.
    scenario 2. Monke decide to drop 1 bomb in Ukraine, but appears to be a dud and according to us this is probably another "good will gesture"
    scenario 3. Bomb goes off in Ukraine, Poland leading a blitzkrieg at Moscow and saint Peters burg while the rest will take on small towns and villages. Russia gets rekt
    scenario 4. Monke decide to attack the closest Nato country and Ukraine. buying him more time.
    scenario 5. Monke decide to Nook everyone and goes full ham, similar to Scenario 3, the rest of Nato gonna invade Russia and this will end in less then a week.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      1. Yes, the standard Russian tactical nuke caps out at 50kt yield
      2. Yes, he's been holding (allegedly anyways) a war-with-NATO reserve of ballistic and cruise missiles in various forms. The most likely attack vector would be a large number of cruise missiles, some of which are nuclear and the rest simply there to clutter radar. Iskander and Kalibr and Kh-55. If Monke is truly out of Iskander and Kalibr, nuclear armed antiship missiles like Kh-22 can be substituted
      3. Nukemap says no local fallout in Russia from 50kt detonations along the Dniper, but this would vary with wind conditions
      4. lol maybe
      5. god knows

  4. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Here's how it would look in the unlikely event

    >Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine
    >DEFCON 2
    >Massive NATO conventional strike sinks the BSF and destroys the Russian army on the ground in Ukraine
    >Russia and NATO are now at war
    >DEFCON 1
    >Russia starts talking, gets ready to mobilize strategic arsenal
    >Glowies hear all of this but the first strike is already on its way
    >Russia begins turning to glass
    >Russia gets a few ICBMs off
    >The few bombers that Russia gets in the air are shot down enroute to their targets
    >Russia's subs, most of which are already being tailed, are sunk before they get their SLBMs off. At least another week of cat and mouse ensues, potentially with more missiles getting off

    >Of the ICBMs and SLBMs, 30% of them fail
    >Of the ones that don't, another 50% are intercepted
    >The remaining warheads, a couple hundred strong, aren't nearly enough to destroy the US' own nuclear force. Monke might just go countervalue instead if he realizes this
    >Several major American cities are wiped off the map, which as a whole benefits the United States of America and improves it in several areas
    >Meanwhile NATO goes "lol, lmao" and steamrolls to the wasteland that was Moscow within a week

    >Satellites are all gone though. No more internet, no more GPS, comms are back to reliant on ground-based antennas, for however long it takes to re-establish those, maybe years.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      are all gone though. No more internet, no more GPS, comms are back to reliant on ground-based antennas, for however long it takes to re-establish those, maybe years.
      the fun thing about Starlink is they launch it 52 at a time with Falcon 9, several hundred at a time with Starship

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >Several major American cities are wiped off the map, which as a whole benefits the United States of America and improves it in several areas

      I like the cynicism here

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        I don't know about you, but my day would be significantly improved by the knowledge that New York, Washington, Baltimore, Boston, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Portland had been reduced to smoking craters of radioactive ash.

        About the only thing of value that would be lost is a little pipe tobacco shop in New York that I like to order from.

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      are all gone though. No more internet
      But anon, internet works via cables, not satellites. Also russians need to shut down satellites first lmao

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >30% of them fail
      I'd guess 60%, but who really knows.
      I doubt they'd hit many satellites, if any. Everyone wants to use them. If China suddenly loses their gps and shit too they'll turn Russia into a giant wildfire from their end.

  5. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    2 more weeks until we liberate all the washing machines being held hostage in vladivostok.

  6. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Because bridges tend to exist where people densely congregate along rivers, you're detonating basically every one of those 50kt nukes in the middle of population centers, including 5 in the middle of Kyiv alone.

    At that point there's nothing tactical or limited about this, it's a massive strategic bombing campaign. And since the world isn't going to be able to draw any meaningful distinction between different levels of nuclear holocaust or 5 million vs 15 million civilian deaths, and since it's far better to destroy an enemy than deal them an intolerable injury, you might as well just annihilate Ukraine as a country and leave the war an immediately settled issue with strategic hits on all its major population centers. Then brandish your remaining nukes menacingly and brace for the global response, which will be the same whether you just committed a medium nuclear genocide or a large nuclear genocide against Ukraine.

  7. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Nova Khakovka isn't happening. It's the faucet to Crimea getting water.

  8. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    boys, i will be out in the boonies in Maine next week, how safe am I? I'll be near Nova Scotia

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      the bit of maine that pokes up into canada is rightful canadian clay and they may attack to retake it at any time

      • 2 months ago
        Anonymous

        Caribou JE SRBIDJA

  9. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Russia most likely would "test" a nuke in some remote place before actually nuking Ukraine tbqhwy

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      It's the opposite. "Test"ing a nuke shows you're too bitch-made to use it properly; if you could pay the price of using a nuke then you would. It shows weakness, not strength.

  10. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Russia has already mined the reactors of the ZNPP. They will false flag call it a Ukrainian nuclear strike when they set it of. How will NATO respond to that?

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      They get called on their bullshit and NATO opens the floodgates for either an outright UN intervention in Ukraine or full on invasion of Russia proper with the explicit purpose of deposing Putin

  11. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    >Conventional forces wasted in Ukraine
    >Nukes used up in war against NATO
    >Crippled by nukes
    >Tons of natural resources
    Russia would get carved up into colonies by China and western survivors and endure a millennium of humiliation

    • 2 months ago
      Anonymous

      >millennium of humiliation
      They get off on humiliation as it feeds into their "rising from its knees" imperial fairy tales

  12. 2 months ago
    Anonymous

    Just dropping this gem here if you want to spend a few minutes reading about nooks:
    >Would You Like to Play a Game? - By A. Nonymous
    >https://pastebin.com/cWs6A7rR

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