Can Ukraine actually sustain a long term war even with western supplies? Even if they get top tier nato weapons they need people trained and considering they’re losing 100-200 a day to shelling alone, can they sustain the war long enough?
Ukrainian Manpower
Ask the soviet union.
Money wins wars.
The Vietnamese lost something like 950,000 NVA and VC from 1964 to 1974 (KIA, not counting WIA or MIA). That alone is something like 260 deaths a day. They kept that up for 10 years and still won in the end.
That's not counting the fact that they had been fighting for independence since roughly 1940.
That's 35 years of fighting for a nation that had a smaller population (in 1960) compared to Ukraine today.
This, it's about determination, not numbers
Good thing ruskies are dumb enough to keep committing atrocities to keep that morale up.
yeah, that's why we see them surrender and some even defect to Russia by hundreds
even fake "attrocities" new don't help
they can absolutely be bled white provided the russians also have a monthly advance/encirclement. Its very easy to adjust to 200 KIA a day but 200 KIA plus a random week of 500 KIA or captured a day will get weird. Unless Uk artillery are magically spared by counter bat and all Uk losses are just poor 8 week wonders dying in trenches which is doubtful. As the russians are allowed to artillery duel on favorable lines and with a massive tube advantage the Uk will begin to lose institutional knowledge.
That in addition to gaining an extra bite of ground which denies recruiting from that area
so this month it seems its Ludenisk next month with be a quarter of donbass the next month the next quarter. the next month up to the gates of kharkiv the next month encircling kharkiv. So assuming this rate of advance and that loss rate by october one of 3 major cities can no longer provide fresh recruits and it begins a cascade effect.
American estimates for KIA are not taken seriously by anyone
Black person russia would be lucky to keep kherson come october lmao
I'd be very comfortable betting a load of money that they will. Ukraine has tried multiple offensives there that are widely celebrated on /k/ but pushed back the next week. Its tactical tickty tack as the Ukrainians don't have the juice for an operational push and Russians aren't looking to expand in that area. All the flex on that front line makes it the most fun to watch when nothing else is happening tho. Were I the Uk I wouldn't worry so much about trying to threaten kherson but start building a massive defense works to prevent the sweep to odessa.
>prevent the sweep to odessa.
Coming from the sea and Transnistria I presume.
They're not worried about sweeping to Odessa they're have to go through a frick huge city that is basically surrounded on 3 sides by a river that wont dry up, and then like 4 smaller rivers before they can even THINK about Odessa, which is even more fortified and dense and is right on the fricking border with NATO so supply lines are right there.
What an insane thing to even think about, any vatBlack person who says "Odessa will be taken" is a delusional fricking moron and I refuse to even listen to you.
If you think "Transnistria will help" you have to be a borderline nuggetted Russian typing with your fricking tongue after losing all limbs from a drone while shitting.
I assume you are referring to Myklolaiv for your invincible river city. I advise you look at a map. You understand that 85% of the city is on the same bank that russians are currently on right? It would not be easy but its no harder than any other city so far. If the russians made it a priority and diverted forces from other fronts there they would be able to get into the city pretty quick. Russia right now to be very comfortably able to advance on one front at a time.
tactical as opposed to operational or strategic no big deal.
lol, lmao
Ah yes, lets take the city we currently struggle dealing with, and somehow advance over a giant frickhuge river that also has city on the other side of it. Great idea.
And then keep going through 4 more fricking rivers, most of which do not have bridges.
Guess what, even if you advance into the city, you would ALWAYS be surrounded by artillery. Are you fricking moronic?
"THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE MYKLOLAIV, THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE MYKLOLAIV, THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE MYKLOLAIV!!
/k/ : "How and with what army."
"THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE MYKLOLAIV COPE AND SEETHE!!!!!"
And we're right back to that again.
the same way they took the last few cities. concentrate forces locally fall other forces back to defensible lines for long range artillery duels push around the city to bring resupply line under fire and begin a siege
Which Russia won't be able to maintain because the supply lines for the artillery duels will have to go along the Kherson axis.
The only reason Russia can even maintain their high rate of fire in the east is because the Russian border is right next to the front line, where as to advance through southwest Ukraine would require moving that same vast amount of artillery along a single axis of advance and then stockpiling it all.
Ukraine will hit those roads and they will hit those stockpiles and Russia will be unable to maintain the rate of fire.
So you want Russia to get cauldroned?
This isn't LPR where Russia can attack from three separate Axis and get constant resupply from the Russian border. The only way Russia will be able to attack Myklolaiv is from the east and Ukrainian units will be able to hit the Russian supply lines easily from the north.
The entire west shore of the city will be unable to be encircled because all of the bridges along that river were blown early in the war and the last time Russia tried to take the bridge left they lost an entire BTG.
Russia would have to travel deep into central Ukraine in order to find a crossing point and that leaves their entire advance open to flanking attacks.
With the amount of troops Russia has, they can't do it.
They have to advance along a single direction without the three various supply lines that they have in the east. They do not have the Russian border barely two hours away and all logistics will have to follow that same road way.
And even if they somehow get past the city their logistics train only gets larger and larger.
It's a fricking suicide mission, Odessa is lost to Russia, deal with it.
"THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE ODESSA THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE ODESSA THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE ODESSA"
Everyone on /k/: "How"
"THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE ODESSA COPE AND SEETHE!!!!!"
RUSSIA WILL TAKE ODESSA WITH THE SHEER WILL TO TAKE ODESSA ALONE
>Every single Russian male by the time they reach Odessa will look like pic related
Feels good man
anon you can’t be talking like that on r/PrepHole
>Its tactical tickty tack
it's fricking what
>The Snek Island Offensive is coming. It's going to be AWESOME, and NOBODY will expect it. Complete surprise victory and Odesa will welcome Russian liberators with flowers and endless wet pussy forever.
The End.
Kherson will ve liberated by the end of the year. Russian advances will culminate during the late August. They'll start loosing ground during autumn.
Ukriane will not retake Crimmea tough.
>Ukriane will not retake Crimmea tough.
Why not? Not enough time?
strategically itd be very difficult but the main thing is russia will likely nuke claiming existential threat
>russia will likely nuke claiming existential threat
Putin would get assassinated if he tried to do that
Crimea will be part of the 'concession' the US will cook up to save Putin some face. We did the same with the Japs and Hirohito. We did the same after humiliating Kruschev in Cuba. Like anyone gave a frick about missiles in Turkey except for a few drunk old Soviets.
Russia might have to accept a Berlin railway style land concession to Kaliningrad, for example. Lithuania for her part would get stauncher Western aid and anti-subversion intelligence help, for example.
A lot can be done to 'buy' Putin's acquiescence to defeat, that's what he's looking at now. A list of alternative victories he can claim he was after all along. Whatever that is, is the best Russia can hope for now.
Russia will unironically fall as a civilization if they try to 'bleed Ukraine white'. Ukraine can bleed like Vietnam as pointed out above. Russia, as the Offensive Power, cannot. These are rules as immutable as the Victor controls the Field. These are just realities of physical space. Russia cannot 'win' this now. The very last tendrils of possibility where Ukraine succumbs to constant pressure have all drifted away in the last few weeks.
Every month there will be another Western superweapon, in units of mere 4s, which totally invalidates some Russian doctrine. HIMARS is a great example, the Brit dart missiles are nother, the German air defense weapon is another.
Putin is looking for a way out of this cage, and everything is a negotiation. Russia is lowering her price, the West and Ukraine haven't budged.
Russia will keep Crimea and probably will 'voluntarily' pull out of other Ukr territories without even being asked. It's implied, and Putin will comply. Just like his Army has complied with the Rules of War. He has no choice. Hell it's not even a Western choice at this point.
>48?
>49, that's my final offer
Haaaaafff
Russia isn't really reinforcing its invasion ghouls.
And yet when Linebacker blew up everything of strategic value in the North (outside of Hanoi) they suddenly decided to cry uncle and go to the negotiating table and sign a peace agreement. Strange. It’s as if they didn’t value the lives of their own people that much.
Which is why Ukraine needs to lay the groundwork for Insurgency EVERYWHERE in Ukraine.
Turn Russian "gains" into total nightmares of endless bombings and assassinations. And the more territory the Russians seize, the more their occupation manpower will be stretched thin. Kill them day after day after day.
Unleash Hell.
>troon cartoons
kys homosexual
Doesn't stop what I'm saying from being the truth.
Insurgency turns Russia's definition of "winning" (capturing territory) into losing by ensuring the Russians continue to DIE even in the occupied territories.
You cannot arty-spam an IED.
who is serving in these units. ideological Anti russian military aged people are already fighting in the conventional war. those dodging duty are either apathietic or pro russia. in order to build up your larp force you need literally disband your most motivated forces and replace them with conscripts who don't wanna be there. this is very stupid. there is a reason that countries almost never plan to do unconventional war defending their own land
I'm begging you to look a map. you can take the E58 highw from current russian positions to vast majority of the city because its on the same banks as the the Russians are currently
Or you could just *gasp* use the frickton of civilians already trapped BEHIND the enemy lines, unable to join the Ukrainian military forces.
DUH.
i'm assuming you are trolling at this point. you don't simply spin up that kind of thing. that would require diverting extremely imported training assets to sneak into enemy territory to recruit and train a few people for behind the lines stuff when they could instead be training hundreds of draftees safely in Lviv. this kind of thing only works as a stay behind operation you can't magic up a stay behind force after the place has already been taken.
"Taking" territory (driving out formal enemy military units) is not the same as SECURING it. Occupation uses up a frickton of manpower. It's why insurgencies are so difficult to defeat.
And multiple insurgent operations have been carried out deep in the Occupied Territories already.
>It's so easy to take
I am cringing so hard at your nonsense.
Odessa has had Ukrainian professional units in it since the start. The planned amphibious assault died with the death of the Moskova. There is plenty of UK AShMs in Odessa which will have a jolly good time blowing up any assault. So that leaves a land attack... I don't think you realise how difficult that would be. Where are they getting their supplies to maintain this? The reason Russia is advancing at all (500m average a day) is because they shell the ever loving shit out of an area and force the Ukrainians out and then move artillery through and do it all again. They can do this because they have ammo to do it. Odessa is so far from ample supplies it'd be difficult to do that... and the city is built on top of catacombs, meaning it is unlikely to do much to the troops there. Which means a physical attack and clearing street by street... which Russia has shown it cannot do unless the place is flattened by artillery and the occupants are starved. This is 'We surrounded Kiev on all three sides' bullshit when that wasn't surrounding it kek.
do you think that professional units are remaining in odessa when they are desperately needed elsewhere. Does that not indicate to you that the Uk seriously consider Odessa to be under threat?
If they leave, even Russia could manage to take an ungarrisoned city. They're there to prevent that and Russia is therefore unable to take it.
why not garrison with plentiful cheap TDF forces and specialists for anti ship missiles instead of high quality intact prewar forces if all you need is a garrison. The whole point of TDF is to be garrison forces to free up regulars for the frontline
I don't think i've referred to the quality of forces in Odessa at all in this thread?
See
>who is serving in these units. ideological Anti russian military aged people are already fighting in the conventional war.
Seems to be implying that the only "Real soldiers" Ukraine has left are in the east which means everywhere else including Odessa is conscripts
Except that wasn't me?
i don't know you pulled that from a post that didn't mention the east or Odessa.
I wasn't even talking about training level in that post its a post about motivation just the pretty basic fact you don't want to disband a unit of TDF volunteers to create a stay behind unit. As replacing motivate volunteers with draftee which is pretty obvious to anyone with a brain
I didn't even mention pre war units. I don't think even insurgent larper anons would seriously dicuss disbanding a unit of the pre war regulars to try to plant car bombs in kherson
no one is talking to you schitz
As I said before, you use CIVILIANS. Do you even know what an insurgent is? An insurgent isn't a disbanded military individual automatically.
More often than not, it's a civilian who lacks any military training. This is a war with Russia. Ukraine must use ALL its people to fight it.
First you said Odessa is only guarded by easily defeated conscripts and that's proof about how Odessa will fall now you're saying that because it's not manned by conscripts that's proof that Ukraine knows it'll fall against any attack.
Make up your mind.
*cartroons.
And Ukraine should begin with the cities directly in Russia's Eastern Front path. Get the Insurgency ready. Lots of little cells who do not KNOW each other.
Any spot Russia captures should become a deathtrap for the occupier.
outside of Galicia there isn't much reason for a guerilla conflict at that level. I doubt russia will even want Galicia as its openly hostile and pretty non productive and historically german or polish.
remember that all guerilla wars are ultimately race wars ideology is just a fig leaf and most of Ukraine doesn't have that level of racial beef with russia outside of galicia
Russia is moving on the East. Insurgency in every single place possible will tie up the invaders in occupation duties, preventing them from being able to go back to standard fighting.
Kill them all.
>Ukraine doesn't have that level of racial beef with russia
think again b***h.
It should be the duty of every available Ukrainian civilian to kill the Russian invader. A grandmother killed Russians with poisoned pie for frick's sake.
There have already been various assassinations of Russian puppets and sympathisers.
Here's the aftermath of the car bombing of Dmitry Savluchenko, a puppet installed in Kherson.
To beat the ruthless Russian scum, all forms of opposing them must be used.
Ukraine wants to win? It's gotta get brutal on its foes.
BAAASED
KILL AND EAT THE COMMUNISTS
BETTER DEAD THAN RED
As long as their morale exists Russia will run out of manpower before Ukraine will
>100-200 a day
During a very specific battle, which has closed days ago, those were the figures. At the time they were relevant, it was impossible to get Vatniks to quote them correctly. Now they are quoting them outside of their relevance. Of course.
Nonetheless, whatever the stupid numbers of dead that are quoted, the answer is always yes. Of course they can.
That's not the issue, the issue remains what military commentators around the world stated very early on which is that we should not aim for a long term war but a decisive one, which means massive amounts of support as soon as possible.
I'm not imagining that leopards will be delivered or anything like that, but given that Ukraine was planning its counter attacks based on support already allocated if not outright delivered, even if the new NATO support wasn't the most astounding systems it still will be highly effective.
This war will probably end like the status before 2014, except Ukraine being in the EU. Ethnic Russians will have their autonomy again, where Russian can be used in the government, but on the national level they have to speak Ukrainian, and so on. Basically like non-Russian ethnic groups in Russia. What a pointless war, but pointless wars happen far too often in our history.
You don't turn a war existential (literal genocide) and then return to a status quo ante.
Russianness will be eradicated from Ukraine in all forms.
You can't do that anymore once you're in the EU. It's not 1945 anymore.
Not much goodwill left in EU towards russians
I don't think Ukraine culturally separating itself from Russia will be too hard or take too long to be honest.
Just took 30 years even with open-ish border and shit, it already started anywhere but the border.
France said it'll take 40 years for Ukraine to join the EU. They have simply been accepted to apply.
They'll make an exception, or conveniently look the other way. Frick Russia.
Russian AIDs Black folk can't I know that
That's why they're fighting like cowards now with artillery
Yeah, they're not sustaining the catastrophic losses the Russians are. Their birthrates also weren't in decline even before the war started.
You think you're concern trolling, vatBlack person, but you're just talking about Russia.
They're a country of 40 million with near-WWII levels of conscription. Also they're ex-Soviets. They can keep on dying at this rate for a long time.
I wish they did because endless seething from the Russians would be glorious and generate enough butthurt to collapse the internet, but they don't have the manpower to keep this up for another 6 months. Their insistence in stubbornly fighting to maintain the rebels territories has cost them too much and they should honestly be looking for a political way out of this situation. Kinda like what Finland did during the Winter War.
I don't think the Russians have the manpower to last another 3 months. They're not mobilising sufficiently.
what do you mean? they literally haven't mobilized at all, not tapping the manpower reserve is a good thing not a bad thing your 1-3rd mobilizations tend to produce your best forces
people posting about how this is the new winter war tend to forget that the Russian won the winter war
People crying about WW3 keep forgetting who won the last two. Come on, give us a third in a row.
Finland didn't have any suppliers beyond Sweden and ran out of shit to fight with. The Soviets only "won" the Winter War after failing their main goal and settling for scraps. No, with Ukraine's western backing, Russia getting progressively weaker and more desperate as time goes on and no advances into major cities in Ukraine, this is more like Barbarossa.
>the Russian won the winter war
After breaking the Finnish defense line and threatening to move onto Helsinki
Finland had almost zero international support because England and even SWEDEN cucked out of helping them. Winter war showed what would happened if no countries helped Ukraine
there's more than enough manpower and west will provide the tech. so russia better start looking into political way out of this situation, like giving up everything including crimea and probably kuban as well and collapsing quietly.
They would have to kill >3 Russians for every man they lose to win an attritional war, which they were doing at first, but now that the Russians have managed to bring their artillery advantage to bear they are not.
ie, unless the Ukrainians manage to start dishing out the same kind of artillery fire against the Russians that the Russians can at them, they will eventually run out of men before the Russians do.
I swear you vatBlack person morons got a hold of a cia handbook from 1960 and just ran with it
>any moment now their morale will break, they will rise up and overthrow their masters and lay down their arms, welcoming us as liberators
>losing 100-200 a day
possible during heated days, but pic related
it was just some shit uttered by politicians
I've noticed that Russians didn't brag about Severodonetsk, even videos that they made of that place they showed few komars, few destroyed vehicles and that's all.
I start to believe that this place was a deathtrap for Russians, which is why they are memory-holing it as much as possible
I noticed that too. They didn't boast about Severodonetsk. Which means their personal losses must have been horrific.
Ukraine's military retreats are overextending the Russian forces.