The JSDF opens up a second front and invades the Kuril islands.
How long can they hold out against Russia on their own?
The JSDF opens up a second front and invades the Kuril islands. How long can they hold out against Russia on their own?
The JSDF opens up a second front and invades the Kuril islands.
How long can they hold out against Russia on their own?
>inb4 article 9
Shut up nerds!
I thought they lifted that?
No. But the pro-repeal coalition now has a super-majority in the house. They also reinterpreted the article to mean that defensive operations can be extended to strategic allies.
TSUSHIMA 2 LFG
Hold out? The JSDF'S navy and airforce would unironically fuck their asses. People say the JSDF Ground Forces aren't that good in comparison bur you've got a bunch of modern ships and F35s in support of your landing.
F35s can’t fly half the time
get back in the fucking box pierre, next time I'm calling a priest
Bro are you retarded? The F35 still has numerous issues, so many infact they are already working on the replacement. The F35 isn't a terrible plane but as a result of trying to make 2 separate models that both need to be able to do everything it has a lot of issues they never worked out. Most of these issues result in the plane needing to be grounded until it can be fixed, which they generally can't because they have barely any parts for the things.
The F35 has been a joke of a program and will go down in history as one of the biggest mistakes the military made while 3rd world shitholes like israel figure out how to make it not shit (which will inevitably make it just a worse F16)
>so many infact they are already working on the replacement.
This is completely false btw. The NGAD program is a replacement for the F-22. The F-35 is gonna operate alongside the NGAD for years to come.
The NGAD is to replace the F-22. Same as the UK-Italy-Japan one is to replace their Typhoons (not sure if it is replacing anything in Japan). Sweden and Saudi Arabia might join the Tempest program too. The French-German-Spain program is to replace the Typhoon's and Rafael.
F-35 is going to be used alongside the NGAD/Tempest/F-X or whatever the names are for these programs. The question is what is happening to the US program to replace the F-18's on the carriers. The F-35's are not in large numbers for that (and don't really have the range anyway). The US really needs a long range fighter/interceptor because as it stands only the F-15, carrier F-18's and F-35's can help if China goes to Taiwan* to have fun. So not sure if the NGAD is going to have 'long range' as a priority. Could do an F-35 and make three different aircraft and design them for three different things.
*Without in air refuelling which is what China would take advantage of
Hold out assumes that the Russian Navy can make it that far.
Imagine the Kuznetsov going around the horn of Africa
cape of good hope*
Cape of good cope*
the USN would die of Jealousy if the JSDF sink the Kuznetsov.
>JSDF sink the Kuznetsov
I would cum in my fucking pants
But would they die before or after furiously jacking off to the footage of it's demise?
Immidiate autoerotic death
Sinking the kuznetsov would be a warcrime™. Think of the ecological disaster that will follow
Stop I can only get so erect
Post that Tsushima pasta, it always makes me chuckle
don't have it on me
here, have Drach read it out for you
If we're being honest, the JMSDF will be doing most of the fighting. The grunts would just be calling targets.
And yes, they would be slapping Russia's shit in the pacific unless the Russians (somehow) have attack subs that are actually capable of picking off modern surface vessels in the Pacific.
Given the state of the Moskva and Admiral K, I think that's doubtful.
>How long can they hold out against Russia on their own?
Maybe stupid question but why would the JASDF buy F-35B? Do they fly out of a lot of short airstrips or something?
All the fighter jets are under the JASDF, including ones used for carrier operations. It's like how the RAF operates from RN carriers.
Ah, i didn't know that. I thought they still did the IJN thing with the Navy having their own aviation.
>why would the JASDF buy F-35B? Do they fly out of a lot of short airstrips or something?
Japan uses helicarriers *ahem* heli-destroyers.
F-35Bs can integrate into them easily.
Stop with this retarded cope. Heli carriers are shit, and not real carriers.
Japan happened to have an aircraft carrying destroyer that happened to have an elevator compatible with F-35 dimensions.
Japan has for some reason been constructing a lot of rather large "helicopter carriers" even though something a lot smaller would be more convenient for helicopters, it's the jap equivelant of the israelis pretending they don't have nukes
They would take them handily. They could even take Sakhalin without much effort.
The issues will be
>1. muh nooks
>2. Wrecking the trust built up with their neighbors, who will perceive them as an expansionist power who will attack them next
>3. Widespread opposition from the public who are only just starting to like the JSDF
>4. The fact that it's constitutionally illegal
>5. What to do about the civilians living there. Ethnic cleansing is not looked on favorably nowadays
>5. What to do about the civilians living there. Ethnic cleansing is not looked on favorably nowadays
This is the Japanese we're talking about, deprive them of moeshit for 15 minutes and they'll be genoiciding mongoloids like it's 1935 all over again
I think most of the population in the Kurils is either Japanese or Ainu, so no problem there.
However I believe everyone who lives in Sakhalin is Russian, although it's a tiny population. I think that could be settled by giving it a lot of autonomy and giving them enough taxbreaks and free anime to make them not bothered enough to wanna rejoin Russia.
The real problem is Japan's view of ethnic nationalism- IE they think that if you aren't ethnically japanese by definition you're not a citizen. If say the US annexed Haiti, having a population of french-speaking black catholics wouldn't be that big an issue to the US, since we already have a lot of blacks, catholics, and french-speakers, and I don't think they'd suffer worse problems than those already in the US, since the US has a civic-nationalism view of citizenship.
But I don't think you could convince the Japanese public that a population of Russians should be considered full citizens with full rights, and that would make integration impossible in the long run.
>I think most of the population in the Kurils is either Japanese or Ainu, so no problem there.
Ironically, the biggest ethnicity there is Ukrainian. There are no Japanese and only a handful of Ainu.
Aren't there a couple of the islands the Japanese do contest cause they still have a sizable Japanese population? The ones closest to Hokkaido.
>they think that if you aren't ethnically japanese by definition you're not a citizen
I really don't think it's that strong a belief. They very liberally gave citizenships to Koreans, Taiwanese aboriginals, Ainu, and Okinawans. In most cases, they effectively rolled in, said "You're all Japanese now. Here's your Japanese name, a shrine, and a school. Get learning, bucko." I'll give them credit for their linguistics research though. They did a good job of recording a lot of the native languages. To this day, the ethnically distinct Okinawans and Ainu are still considered a type of Japanese despite being different. The Emishi of Tohoku and Austronesian tribes that held out in Kyushu also just got subsumed into the Yamato identity. To say nothing of the millions of people who are partially or fully ethnically Korean and don't know because their parents hid that information. I've heard some funny stories about people thinking they're a normal Japanese, going to the city hall for their family register document because they want to get married, and finding out that their original family name was 朴, 金, or 宋.
>t. Japan resident with a lot of acquaintances including mixed race people, zainichi Norks, and naturalized citizens
You just know at least some of those people were racist towards Koreans too, imagine them finding out and having their whole world view destroyed.
Do the Japanese have any racist nicknames for covid like how we call it kung-flu? Like, do they ever call it チャンコロナウイルス (eg. チャンコロ+コロナウイルス)?
Nothing really funny. People have called it "chankoronauirusu" but it didn't really get mass adoption. They've got "bukan haien" (Wuhan pneumonia), "bukan uirusu" (Wuhan virus), and I think I've heard "shina uirusu (Chink virus) before. I remember before the greek letter system started people were pissed off that it was apparently racist to call it the Wuhan virus but okay to say "Indian variant" or indeed whole disease names like "Japanese encephalitis."
>but it didn't really get mass adoption.
Well that's disappointing. I thought I was pretty clever when I came up with it. Since Japs love portmanteau, you'd think it'd be more popular.
The Korean-Japanese are not a good example given the Japanese consider it controversial to show them as even existing on TV. We talk about how crazy American media is, but nobody has shied away from showing off that asian-americans or african-americans exist and have issues.
The Korean-Japanese are viewed as fundamentally citizens as Korea, as well as a very nasty reminder of the Japanese colonialism they did on the peninsula.
Had a Korean-Japanese proffessor who confirmed in very few words things really are that bad over there for people like him.
I don't think the average Japanese person is all that racist, but I don't think Japanese society would be really prepared to share some of their pie with a large Russian minority then they treat their asian minorities like shit.
We should remember the reason why Japan population is in decline is cause they're literally the only country to refuse to let in immigrants to replace the aging population.
>We should remember the reason why Japan population is in decline is cause they're literally the only country to refuse to let in immigrants to replace the aging population.
So then they should mass import immigrants that have a 90% chance of not assimilating to their culture? That's just begging for your country to be socially destroyed, replacing your native population with immigrants is never a good idea and the only people that support it are garden gnome elites.
Why would the immigrants have a 90% chance of not assimilating? What did the world suddenly they hate anime when I wasn't looking?
It wasn't second hand, he went to High-School in Japan before coming to the US. Anyway he wasn't eager to talk about it other than to confirm the stuff that I'd heard previously. Most of the other stuff he mentioned about Japan was how tough it is for a history major over there- that history is an elective in Japan that ends with the Meiji Restoration, and that he had a Japanese colleague who had to publish his findings about the Ainu being the original inhabitants of Japan outside of Japan because of how controversial it was within Japan.
>he had a Japanese colleague who had to publish his findings about the Ainu being the original inhabitants of Japan outside of Japan because of how controversial it was within Japan.
That's surprising. It's considered common knowledge nowadays. The National Diet unanimously passed a resolution in 2008 recognizing the Ainu as the indigenous people of Japan based on expert opinion. And more recently they passed greater legal recognition.
I need to dive deeper, but this abstract from 1994 for example mentions the jomon (original inhabitants of Japan) being ancestral to modern Ainu as an aside.
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ase1993/102/2/102_2_93/_article/-char/en
Yeah it's indisputed on an academic level. But like think about how people still argue about whether the civil-war was about slavery or not. Most people don't give a shit about history, they give a shit about how history can justify their political positions.
That said, the guy was a bit older, so maybe the incident he was talking about happened back prior to 2008.
>The Korean-Japanese are not a good example given the Japanese consider it controversial to show them as even existing on TV. We talk about how crazy American media is, but nobody has shied away from showing off that asian-americans or african-americans exist and have issues.
That's not true at all. There are hundreds of successful and respected public figures with careers who have mentioned that they are Korean and who have careers. It's not controversial at all. Who is Masayoshi Son, Akiko Wada, Miyazon, Hiroshi Ituski, Tomoyasu Hotei, Yuusaku Matsuda, Eikichi Yazawa etc. These aren't crypto-Koreans, these are just a few of the ones who have publicly acknowledged it and who are very influential. Iconic even.
>Had a Korean-Japanese proffessor who confirmed in very few words things really are that bad over there for people like him.
Zainichi diaspora have the same issue as other Japanese diaspora. They're whiny as all hell and love to talk up how bad things are based on their experiences that took place many years ago or based on second-hand retellings from their family. They're kind of a self-selecting population. People who move abroad tend to perceive it as a problem. I'd love to pick your professor's brains though. I know literal North Koreans here in Japan who don't even use 通名 who don't perceive a major challenge to their day-to-day life and interactions with people, to say nothing of the less visible Koreans. South Korea is wealthy now, so one could expect an exodus of Korean diaspora from Japan to SK, yet it hasn't really happened, because life really isn't that awful for a Korean-Japanese.
Some things of note: Many of the infantry and coastal garrison untis from the far east have be redeployed to provide for the war in Ukraine (either dirrectly onto the frontlines or in other places to free up those units to participate).
The Russian Pacific Fleet has actually seemed to have gotten their shit together lately. They just did a joint op with China to go dick cruise near Alaska and they made it the whole time and back to port without issue or any ships neeeding to be towed (We can laugh, and we should, but realistically this is a large improvement and not many nations in the world could do it...and this isn't even their "primary fleet.")
No one (in osint) really knows just how capable the Russian sub forces still are. But recently retired career seamen continue to tell the tale that they should not be underestimated and have not suffered near the decay as the rest of the Russian military. But, again, yeah, no one can really say with any certainty.
Finally, Japan has good kit, tons of training/experience, but their manpower is a little on the restricted side. If they go in with a good plan and execute on it well, then its probably game over before the vatniks could even respond in force. If it gets dragged out years long like the Ukraine War? They might have some issues.
>tons of experience
What was the last time Japan fought a naval battle?
War games and joint exercises are valuable experience. I didn't say "combat experience."
When is the last time the Russian Pacific fleet did? My guess without checking is that its going to be meaningfully the same time.
>When is the last time the Russian Pacific fleet did?
About 1905.
Oh stfu. Russian sufrace navy would absolutely oblitherate the japs.
bad bait get better material
So what you're telling me it they should land their troops by air?
Huh? I do not understand your question.
You're saying the Russian navy might be semi-competent, especially the sub fleet, so I'm suggesting that the Japs could bypass them by landing troops on the Kurils by air. Considering that Japan has f-35s they'd have no trouble establishing air supremacy.
>You're saying the Russian navy might be semi-competent, especially the sub fleet, so I'm suggesting that the Japs could bypass them by landing troops on the Kurils by air
Oh, I see now. Yes, I would assume that paratroopers would be used heavily in the openning days of such a conflict. But also, the islands there are many and often clustered together. It would not be difficult to "sprint" landing craft to the next beach over when there are no warships immediately present; the Pacific Fleet cannot be everywhere at once, especially if they are surprised.
>Considering that Japan has f-35s they'd have no trouble establishing air supremacy.
This remains to be seen, based upon a great many factors. Assurdely the F-35 gives them a leg up but as we have seen in Ukraine there is a difference between ability to operate and true air dominance.
>as we have seen in Ukraine there is a difference between ability to operate and true air dominance
The Uses have managed to keep the Russians from obtaining air supremacy, and maybe even superiority, with Soviet shitbird hand-me-downs. I honestly think it would take all of 20 f-35s to completely destroy Russia's airforce. Don't forget that Japan has f-15s and f-16s in addition to their 147 f-35s.
F35s are not going yo do shit against Russian airforce
They buttblast the russian pacific fleet, take over Vladivostok without much of a fight, seize the railways and start trucking to moscow
JSDF isn't doing shit. They're not designed to. And unless we see a war break out in Asia, they're gonna stay that way.
Japan legally speaking is still demilitarized. The JSDF only exist to hold out long enough for the Americans to show up. And they like it that way, since instead of spending a ton of money on the military, they put it back into the country. Cause you know- the last time they had a real military, it kinda sucked.
People tend to just assume Japan should have a real military for it's own sake, but so long as they're allied to America there's no real need for it. Now- if say China invades Taiwan, that's a good reason to increase their military to ensure more defense. But short of that there's no real good reason.
That said- I totally wanna see Japan get the Kurils and Sakahalin back, but I don't see how we're gonna get to that scenario.
LMAO. JMSDF is a legit contender for second-most powerful navy in the world after the USN, with only the PLAN having any real standing as a rival to that title.
>second-most powerful navy in the world after the USN
Only as a regional navy. No way to project power at any serious distance from Japan.
Yeah, but that's not really an issue for Japan, nor would it be an issue if they tried to take Sakhalin and the Kurils.
Really only the US and a couple European nations with some leftover colonies can really use a blue-water navy today.
In case anyone wanted a general idea of how big the Pacific fleet is I put together a little list the other day for something unrelated. (They would likely get reinforced by some of the northern fleet but that would take a little bit and as such this is sort of a Month 1 list).
1 Slava class cruiser (same class as the Moskva that Ukraine sunk)
4 late Soviet era multirole destroyers (1 stuck in refit for forsseable future)
5 pretty new multirole corvettes (think slightly smaller LCSs with less future tech theme)
20-ish late Soviet era singlerole corvettes (much smaller than an LCS, most 500-600 tons)
4 pretty new SSBNs (roughly equivalent to an Ohio)
7 SSGNs (2 pretty new, 5 late Soviet)
3-ish late Soviet era SSNs
At least half-dozen late Soviet era SSKs
4 LSTs (about half the capacity of an old Newport)
1 large oiler, 5 medium oilers
Dozen or so smaller mine warfare ships of unknown ability/repair
Yeah, but what are the odds the Russians blow up another fishing boat and they have to sail all the way AROUND Africa because they closed the Suez again?
This is the Pacific Fleet, they are already there.
Uh, I think. I know a bit about the JMSDF, give me a few to take a look.
I think the most hilarious part of that whole expedition was that they went full schizo and thought Japan had torpedo boats in Denmark and started shooting at Danish and swedish fishing boats
They also failed to learn from their mistake, did it again near England, so Britain said "No Suez Canal for you," which set them up for all kinds of hilarity.
Yeah wasn't their resupply at Madagascar winter uniforms for the pacific ocean and no food.
Can you do the same thing with the japan navy?
2 totally not a light carrier "destroyers"
2 helicopter carriers
8 pretty new DDGs (roughly equivalent to an Arleigh Burke)
28 pretty new DDs (maybe think a modernized and slightly smaller Spruance
6 last century DEs
About 2 dozen SSKs (some lat century, some pretty new, a couple brand new)
3 pretty new LPDs (this would be BIG in a Kuril Islands conflict)
5 large oilers (3 are pretty old)
4 or 5 brand new "stealth minelaying frigates" (Listen dog, I don't even know)
2 last century big MCM ships (destroyer sized)
20 pretty new small MCM ships (corvette sized)
Thanks
JMSDF for comparison
Minus nukes, Japan probably has a better balance of power today against Russia than it did in 1905
With Russia's performance against Ukraine, I honestly could see the nips steamrolling their asses halfway into Siberia without problems.
I was training with jgsdf 1st infantry division snipers and those guys were pretty damn competent. made our snipers look like morones. They just don't get to go out and play very often.
>I was training with jgsdf 1st infantry division snipers and those guys were pretty damn competent. made our snipers look like morones. They just don't get to go out and play very often.
There's probably a certain self-selection in effect where the guys who end up in the cool MOS in JGSDF are the ones who *really* want to be high speed army guys.
It's not like Japanese military is somewhere people need to go to avoid being burger flippers and collect some welfare or pay for college. It's a pretty deliberate career choice.
Post yfw he gets outed as a zigger
can it really get any worse than him being a commyboo and his second in command committing fraud for his thai rent a bride that is cucking him but he still simps for?
If only Satoshi Kon had lived and given us more offerings instead of this pinko getting to his ripe old age still making the same plot over and over.
>can it really get any worse than him being a commyboo and his second in command committing fraud for his thai rent a bride that is cucking him but he still simps for?
He's two years away from his statistical expiration date and doesn't seem to have a clear plan for a successor.
Unless Goro's actually been hiding his power level this entire time, Studio Ghibli's probably going to wind up tearing itself apart in an internal leadership struggle when he croaks.
Asanuma was a strange fellow. He went from a liberal to a literal member of the Imperial Rule Assistance Association (and probably a war criminal war tbh) calling for China to be wiped off the map to hardcore shilling for Chinese Communists.
Oh he's definitely a zigger. Fucker never got over the Asanuma assassination.
>you are now Pvt Takeshi
>you are now allowed to plap plap plap Russian women
I think they could take and hold the Russian Far East islands pretty handily, the Russian navy would be hard-pressed to keep them off and then support an attempt to retake the islands. Japan would only really face issues if China joined in or if they then decided to do something stupid like invade Vladivostok.
You thins Russia is weak huh? We got Armata and stationary Tonk Costal Defences
Russian Pacific squadron would get shrecked so nothing they could do about it besides threaten to nook.
Do we get a sequel to this kino?
Damn it anon that made me tear up.
Please Japan, Nanking the Russians, I beg of you.
The Russians have managed to get themselves in the most UNFAVORABLE spot that they could have Possibly be put in. Failing to take Kiev and end a quick war has morally put them on the conventional war road where they can't possibly win without Direct military back up from china and other brics nations.
Japan entering going for Kuril MAY cause the Chinese to jump in. Then at that point we have a big conventional war. Russias worst case is they can't use nukes. They ARE living their worst nightmare right now.
If I was Japan i would go for it. The Russians have show themselves to be military incapable and the Chinese are scared shitless to do anything after missing their best time window to take Taiwan.
This is the way i see it at least.
Japan's got a problem where they haven't had a real military operation since WW2, and can't rely on 'allies' to help them out. The US doesn't want to get directly involved fighting Russia, and most of the other pro-US nations in Pacific really don't care for Japan- especially if they seem like they are expanding.
I think Russia's best bet is Russia just collapses in on itself, and they can move in to 'stabilize' nearby regions and everyone agrees to let them because a collapsed Russia is enough of a nuisance that the Japanese taking some cold islands isn't as bothersome.
>Russias worst case is they can't use nukes.
Yes they can.
12 hours at maximum. Please remember it's okay to nuke Japan
We just have to create enough anime about this to meme it into reality.
Who are japan going to recruit, their geriatrics? Japan has the perfect storm of a slow birth rate + ballooning geriatric population + massive anti-military sentiment making the military the career of last resort for those with no choices
Ukraine with all of the foreign aid has an estimated defense budget of $40 to $50 billion and their soldiers are a LOT tougher than Japanese soldiers, and they still can't kick Russia off their clay, Japan's military budget is around $40 billion, they just requested a 7 trillion yen budget for next year which is around $46 billion
A Russia-vs-Japan with no outside intervention would go horribly bad for Japan, and assuming the US, ROK, NATO, Australia don't get involved would result in Japan turning into eastern Ukraine
Who is Russia going to recruit vatnik? Their standing army is dead in Ukraine and they are reduced to conscripts and criminals. Japan still has their professional army.
No, Its not dead you dumb ass. Russia isn't even fighting with all its power.
life must be so good being such a dumb cunt and having nfi whats going on.
What's on the kuril islands that is relevant? Territorial water?
The sword of Amaterasu, with it the empire of the rising sun shall once again rule supreme.
>What's on the kuril islands that is relevant?
Not on but around.
>Territorial water?
Basically yes.
It both allows claim on a bunch of sea bed resources in the area and controls access to the Sea of Okhotsk.
A few AShMs on the islands can effectively seal the sea.
*how long until they walk into Vladivostok?
12 years
Hold out? In a conventional war they'd body the puccians and occupy moscow in two weeks.
What's Japan's service rifle and can I get a semi-auto version in the states?
>how long can they hold out against Russia on their own?
The real question is how long can Russia hold out on their own?
I can’t imagine Japan, from the present day, actually fighting and somehow winning a ground war in Russia. Their AF probably can’t manage the operational tempo to fend off the VKS. Their Navy may be able to keep the Russians out if those are as inoperable as the Moskva but, again, it’s hard to picture Japan fighting an actual war in Russia. Russia isn’t in the same shape they were in at the start of 2022, they’ve rapidly gotten their act together — mostly. Meanwhile the JSDF has zero modern combat experience and zero institutional expectation of getting into an actual war.
I think a good blitz would probably overwhelm Japan's north- but I think the bigger problem is that you've pissed off the Russians, you won't have backing, and as you said, no real combat experience for when bullets start flying for real.
>Their AF probably can’t manage the operational tempo to fend off the VKS.
rofl, lmao even
You base this…opinion? on what, exactly?
NTA but what makes you think they lack the operational tempo? They scrambled over 1000 times in 2021 and almost 800 times in 2022, have very good upkeep of equipment and readiness, and their pilots have a lot of flight hours - comparable with USAF pilots.
As of right now, it would illegal for them to do so. If they were attacked first, they would easily take the Kuril Islands. They could probably take a big chunk of eastern Russia if they wanted, too.
>invades the Kuril islands
Russia emptied its garrison there to send to Ukraine, so, not very long.