Hey /k/ I got a question:
Let's imagine for a moment the entire ordeal in Ukraine would lead to some sort of breakup of Russia into different areas, factions etc.
Let's also imagine the state former known as Russia hasn't been at war with NATO countries. Means there would be no easy way to just walz in.
In such a situation: How would the international community (NOT JUST NATO) try to secure all the russian nuclear weapons, delivery systems and other weapon grade shit? Would it result in some sort of "peacekeeping mission" where multinational forces try to roll in or what?
Let's keep it realistic and non-/misc/ please. I guess we all can agree that no nation on earth would like "rogue groups" to have nuclear weapons. So there would be a very good reason and international agreement that these weapons must be secured.
I'm interested in the /k/-related thing: How would this work out in practice?
>How would this work out in practice?
"Bush, we got one last job for you"
"You know I've been out of the game"
"But Bush, there's WMDs involved"
"Shit, thats all you had to say"
I expect so.
Identify the areas with nukes and prop up useful regimes in those areas that will invite us to intervene.
Auction some of the country off to China for their vote in the UNSC.
Prepare for another 20 years of failed attempts to install a democratic government in our new Afghanistan.
>Identify the areas with nukes and prop up useful regimes in those areas that will invite us to intervene.
I don't think one of the western agencies doesn't know where 99% of the russian warheads are at any given time. And I also think propping up regimes in those areas would take way too much time.
A state breaking up means pure chaos. You don't want nukes to go missing during such a time when even minutes might count before some General Bonkerskowsky loads a few warheads onto his Ural truck and drives off into the fog of war.
They don't know. Sorry to say, however the first thing the west would likely do is to seek the original controlling body that handles nuke safety and prop it up with a shit ton of money and resources.
During societal collapses there is still often a semblance of order as power gets settled, military institutions don't collapse right away either. The short term in this regard is far more stable as people are more afraid to do anything in case its a bluff collapse, however in the long run the interests move from local power consolidation and fear to active hostiles trying to take advantage of the situation, but hopefully Russian PMCs can be bought by the west through the original command structure to maintain the security.
>our new Afghanistan
I really don't think so
Afghanistan didn't even want to be a state at all really. Russia is at least a modern state, the people are accustomed to paying taxes and receiving public services, simply do this at a respectable ratio and they will be content
also you can quite safely ignore steppe wilderness and just focus on gaining the support of the cities if you really want to. That's how the current Russian govt handles things.
Lack of religious fanaticism also makes things much easier. You won't alienate 95% of the population by doing basic, bare minimum civilised things like letting girls go to school or punishing blatant acts of rape.
it is a threat yeah. You would have to go in and find key individuals and documents to gather all the nukes. The successor states have incentives to give up the nukes because 1. USA will get pissed if you dont 2. you might get recognised 3. it's unlikely you will be able to activate the nukes before USA decide to bomb you to secure the nukes.
> You would have to go in and find key individuals and documents to gather all the nukes
That's my focus here. How would this work out? My brain comes up with some sort of Tom Clancy story where one would drop dozens of SF teams into known ICBM fields, SLBM/Boomer harbors etc. Am I right or is this too Clancy-esque?
the silo ICBMs and sub based and 20-wheelers based ones are easy to find. they are not going anywhere. the danger is tactical nukes that are small and might be stolen away. but it's definitely difficult to do. there's no guarantee the nukes arent stolen.
What's the shielding like on a typical nuclear warhead or tactical device? Can satellites or aircraft pick up radiation emissions?
No. Satellites can detect the flash of a detonation but the actual radioactive source of a nuke is not that big. It doesn’t give off enough to be visible above background from a distance.
pu239 alpha decays so its not detectable outside its own casing.
unless of course they use trash grade pu with high 240 fraction.
Very difficult and dangerous. It feels like a very dangerous event, a former nuclear superpower is dangerou.
Even if one nuke gets away into the wrong hands, it could cost the lives of potentially millions.
The only silver lining is understanding how long do tactical nukes that are easier to hide or transport last before they're no longer usable? From what I can understand the smaller ones get damaged easily and require a lot of maintenance and special skills.
Often nukes are surrounded by people with relatively high iq's, officers and rational men. Further nukes are made with failsafes etc.
My best bet would be to ask the regions to self regulate their arsenal for their own self instrest and preservation. By hammering down on the need for self preservation and agency perhaps the regions will take more active measures to secure their arsenal. From thereonout I see no way other then to enforce regimes though inteligence and inspections.
That wouldn't work with russians, since they treat nuclear dangers and radiation as Western propaganda. The only way to do it is to capture the nukes yourself.
Nigga the USSR fell and not 1 rouge nuke slipped out, this is not /misc/ fanfic. If the only way to win is to capture 5000 nukes yourself go ask tom clancy.
Didn't Ukraine also have nukes once the USSR fell? That it took some diplomacy to get rid of them?
What happens when you have several Ukraine's worth that might end up fighting each other?
Honestly nukes are such a fucking meme weapon. The wars of the past seem so much more favorable than them. The idea that some random religious wacko can steal them and take the lives of millions is concerning. Let alone the idea of our entire civilization failing.
The USSR left behind proper nation states. If Russia falls we're looking at a chinese warlord era scenario so this is definetly not comparable.
Securing the nukes would be absolutely paramount. Yes,
Nukes are indeed surrounded by smart guys. But even smart guys can be bought. Perhaps with a real or fake passport for a country with a much better life? Perhaps with a few millions in cash for a nuke?
I'm sorry but even if some would call it Clancy here I don't see any other option than rolling in ASAP and securing every last nuke.
That means yeah, Rangers air assaulting ICBM launch centers, Seals HALO'ing into large naval bases while regular units will be brought in as fast as possible.
This must be a multinational effort, I'd wager with a full UN resolution or something. Nobody would want to take the risk of even one small-yield tactical nuke in the wrong hands. Since the original structures will be crumbling there would be no other option no matter how much this sounds like a Clancy or Forsyth story
>Okay guys 5000 rouge nukes lets begin a full scale invasion to secure them all
>gets nuked
Brilliant
>Rangers air assaulting ICBM launch centers
If I join up tomorrow tell me there is a chance I could be there.
Do we know much about Russian permissive action link devices?
If nobody else wants them then I guess I'll take them. Call me for delivery details
The US had plans to secure the South African nukes in case of communist take over of the country, but I haven't been able to find much about it online, but we talking about just a few nukes not a full blown arsenal
>How would the international community (NOT JUST NATO) try to secure all the russian nuclear weapons, delivery systems and other weapon grade shit?
By nuking them
I remember reading that when Russia was transferring from the USSR era nuclear a nuclear submarine commander forced everyone to still conduct as they normally would by reinforcing their job as a duty to their nation.
Many Russian Officers without a doubt would have the brains enought to enforce a standard amongst their men and inspiring them to remain at their posts for the Motherland rather than completely abandoning nuclear weapons so there'd potentially be a fight to be had if NATO decided to intervene and secure Russia's nuclear arsenal militarily.
I've read somewhere before that the US has contingency plans to contain Pakistani nukes should it ever collapse. Like they actively track them or something and the ISI continually moves them around.
Budanov you should have figured this out by now yeesh.
They could probably just ask, worked for a few post-soviet states shockingly well.