Russian nuclear weapons, 2024

FAS / Bulletin of Atomic Scientists yearly nook book is out. Interestingly, this year their estimate for russia's warhead count has declined. Come and see:
https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-03/russian-nuclear-weapons-2024/

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  1. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    ABSTRACT

    >Russia is in the late stages of a multi-decade long modernization program to replace all of its Soviet-era nuclear-capable systems with newer versions. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that Russia now possesses approximately 4,380 nuclear warheads for its strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces—a net reduction of approximately 109 from last year’s estimate. Although the number of Russian strategic launchers is not expected to change significantly in the foreseeable future, the number of warheads assigned to them might increase.
    https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2024.2314437

  2. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    As of early 2024, we estimate that Russia has a stockpile of approximately 4,380 nuclear warheads assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. This is a net decrease of approximately 109 warheads from last year, largely due to a change in our estimate of warheads assigned to non-strategic nuclear forces. Of the stockpiled warheads, approximately 1,710 strategic warheads are deployed: about 870 on land-based ballistic missiles, about 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and possibly 200 at heavy bomber bases. Approximately another 1,112 strategic warheads are in storage, along with about 1,558 nonstrategic warheads. In addition to the military stockpile for operational forces, a large number—approximately 1,200—of retired but still largely intact warheads await dismantlement, for a total inventory of approximately 5,580 warheads[1] (see Table 1).

  3. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Article tries to put some final nails on the coffin of the "escalate to de-escalate" meme.

  4. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >If Russia decided to exceed the [New START] treaty’s limits, it could theoretically upload hundreds of warheads onto its deployed delivery systems, possibly increasing its deployed nuclear arsenal by about 60 percent (Korda and Kristensen 2023a). How quickly this could be achieved depends largely upon the weapon system: Bombers could be uploaded in a matter of hours or days, whereas a complete upload of the submarines and ICBMs could take months or even years given the time it takes to return submarines to port and change the warhead configuration on each ICBM.

    Korda & Kristensen. 2023a. If Arms Control Collapses, US and Russian Strategic Nuclear Arsenals Could Double in Size. FAS Strategic Security Blog. February 7. https://fas.org/publication/if-arms-control-collapses-us-and-russian-strategic-nuclear-arsenals-could-double-in-size/

  5. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-03/russian-nuclear-weapons-2024/#:~:text=Russian%20nuclear%20sharing%20in%20Belarus
    Recap info on what is public knowledge about the nuclear sharing relationship with Belarus.

  6. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >Cross-referencing our observation of satellite images with information from Russia’s official statements and New START’s data exchanges, we estimate that Russia may have approximately 326 nuclear-armed ICBMs, which we estimate can carry up to 1,246 warheads (see Table 1).

    >Modernization of the ICBM force also involves equipping upgraded silos with new air- and perimeter-defense systems, and the new Peresvet laser has been deployed with at least five road-mobile ICBM divisions for the purpose of “covering up their maneuvering operations” (Hendrickx 2020; Russian Federation Defence Ministry 2019), possibly implying that one role of Peresvet is to blind spy satellites.

  7. 1 month ago
    Anonymous
  8. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Apart from the missiles and silos themselves, the upgrade of Russian ICBM forces also involves extensive modification of external security fences, internal roads, and support facilities. Each silo complex is also receiving a new “Dym-2” perimeter defense system including automated grenade launchers, small arms fire, and remote-controlled machine gun installations (Krasnaya Zvezda 2021; Russia Insight 2018). Likewise, the Launch Control Centers that control each missile regiments are also receiving significant upgrades (see Figure 2).

  9. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Sarmat's silo sites are lagging extremely behind in their construction progress

  10. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    New Programs
    Yars-M
    Osina-RV
    Kedr

    "A series of HGVs"
    >Russia appears to also be developing a series of hypersonic glide vehicles for deployment atop its newer ICBMs, similarly to how the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle is currently deployed with the legacy SS-19 Mod 4 ICBM. Although public Russian industry documents have revealed some of their names—including Gradient-RV and Anchar-RV—as of the end of 2023 the programs remained highly secretive and their respective capabilities remained unclear.

  11. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    The new SSBNs, whose only competition for one vessel repeatedly being reannounced is from the south koreans it seems.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous
    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      This looks like that mission from MW2. Man I hope it really happens.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        The remaster made the game worse

  12. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >[After Belgorod], subsequent Poseidon-capable submarines will be of a new class (Project 09851 Khabarovsk), the first of which was expected to be delivered in the autumn of 2021, but appears to have been delayed and may still be at the final stages of construction at the Sevmash shipyard (Starchak 2023a; TASS 2021i; 2023l). The Khabarovsk will reportedly also be capable of carrying up to six Poseidon torpedoes (TASS 2020k). One more submarine is planned to be delivered to the Russian Navy by 2027, for a total of at least three Poseidon-capable submarines (TASS 2023d). The naval base at Kamchatka reportedly will be upgraded by 2025 to eventually homeport the Belgorod and Khabarovsk (TASS 2023a). Significant warhead storage upgrades are also underway (see Figure 6).

  13. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >In addition to modernizing its existing strategic bombers, Russia is also reproducing additional Tu-160 bombers and appears to plan as many as 50 aircraft.
    lol

  14. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >Rostec announced in December 2023 that specialists completed development of a testing facility and test benches for the PAK DA (TASS 2023h). State flight tests (which typically take place following flight tests by the aircraft’s manufacturer) of the PAK DA are scheduled for February 2026, with initial production expected to begin in 2027 and with serial production in 2028 or 2029
    neva gunna happen ked

  15. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >warheads
    but how many functional missiles do they have? I assume warheads are cheap to maintain, missiles would be expensive

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Took a pause to grab a bite to eat, but so far reading it seems like the new meta for them will be minimizing the number of missiles they need on mobile launchers, shoving as many warheads as realistic onto systems that may not have prior multiple-warhead configurations.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        Is this a general trend in nook delivery design? Seems it would aggravate the chances of getting taken out on the first exchange?

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          Off the top, for the official nuclear weapons states (China France Russia UK US)

          Bongs:
          "Their" nooks are burger nooks, so nothing to discuss.

          Burgers:
          1. The US is considering more nook per delivery vehicle
          https://desuarchive.org/k/thread/61091078
          However:
          2. The US made decisions regarding its triad that resulted in an almost complete absence of the ground-based tactical nook tech tree today. After the abandonment of nuclear artillery, the US didn't get into dual-purpose mobile launchers like the soviets did.
          3 The US doesn't really disclose broad trends in nook design. We have to infer what's going on from the state of missile tech and from very limited disclosures regarding just the missile fields, for reasons touched on briefly here

          [...]

          [...]

          .
          4. Further complicating matters, the MDA announced that it's breaking with tradition and ceasing the publication of its budget this year.

          Chinka:
          I still need to get around to reading the china update for 2024. We do know that they are spamming missile fields like crazy tho.

          Frogs:
          No land leg. All air and sea.

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            Vatniks:
            The russians have the problem that they have stretched the credibility of their land leg beyond salvaging in terms of siloed missiles. Like the figures ITT address, they are struggling just to build the secure facilities for the new ICBMs they *do* have, with units that should be assigned new systems probably not receiving them yet as a result.

            It doesn't help that in ground-launched systems, they have prioritized development of (a) mobile launchers, (b) frickhuge new ICBMs, far larger than predecessors, and (c) extremely expensive hypersanics.

            So, in turn, they now have: (1) a bunch of mobile launchers designed with New START constraints in mind, rather than ones designed to maximize warhead density (2) new huge missiles they can't deploy because the launch facilities aren't built and (3) scarce, logistically distinct wunderwaffen that don't do much / anything to alleviate their overall problems.

            It's a weird situation, because they are burdened by impedance mismatch problems with their triad that would be impossible for a nation without a long-established nuclear program to have at all.

            Their air leg is being squeezed to an unprecedented degree. Their sea leg remains by far their most credible, but also where buildout is by far the slowest – they take decades to build all of the requisite infrastructure for their most advanced vessels. Their land leg is where they have the most flexibility, so they're going to try to make use of that flexibility in whatever way they can. Shoving more warheads onto missiles operated from mobile launchers is one of their most tractable and high-visibility options rn.

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              >Their sea leg remains by far their most credible

              see also: Moskva

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Least you could do would be to use the fricking kilo class sub, not the gender dysmorphic carrier.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                He said MOST credible, which is not a high bar to clear.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Its the thought that their boomer subs actually are a credible threat that needs to be taken down with an attack sub wielding a garrote when funny things are about.

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            Thank you for the informative response.
            >frogs
            >No land leg. All air and sea.
            Is this an issue with striking capabilities? I could imagine both would imply additional launch delays?

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              You'll have to apologize for whatever reddit hole this meme crawled out of, but it's a succinct representation of the weirdness of france's nuclear doctrine. As I understand it, they basically have a two-stage system where the nuclear cruise missile* serves as the first stage and the SLBMs serve as the second stage. The logic of a 'nuclear warning shot' could be uncharitably paraphrased as "nook to de-escalate." Naturally, the absurdity of the concept opens the door to doubt regarding whether any institution charged with upholding it, yknow, actually takes it seriously.

              The strategic issue with the scheme is that it's grounded in like, virtue ethics of nooking, rather than cold-blooded theoretical terms. Nukes are weapons of non-use -> which we must nevertheless possess -> but we maintain our extreme unwillingness to use them unless all has failed and the end is nigh -> but we maintain our strategic autonomy, and we subordinate our armed forces to no one -> so we will nuke as a final desperate gambit to give our adversary a taste of the stakes.

              * one of three that form the backbone of their inventory, as the only one that "should never be used" - SCALP-EG, SCALP-Naval, and ASMP-A.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Took a pause to grab a bite to eat, but so far reading it seems like the new meta for them will be minimizing the number of missiles they need on mobile launchers, shoving as many warheads as realistic onto systems that may not have prior multiple-warhead configurations.

      Getting the mussels wouldn’t be too hard since most of the conventional missiles they are using are nuclear capable as well.

  16. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    I found the "we are experts and trump lost btw and basically, go frick yourself" paragraph

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      It's FAS, the only nukes they ever actually despised were American ones.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        Enough fricking whining.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          Frick you and your own b***hing

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            No, I don't think you will

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        >It's FAS, the only nukes they ever actually despised were American ones.
        Truth same with CND. If only the west disarms, surely the peoples of Soviet Russia will too!
        pic
        threads bbc 1984. You find former CND members to this day acting as Russian quislings and active in green and socialist parties in the UK and Ireland

  17. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >launch icbm
    >gets 500ft into the air
    >comes crashing back down
    I doubt half their missiles would even fire up.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      consider the following: ook ook xD

      The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is an activist rag masquerading as a scholarly journal. Pay them no mind.

      As far as factbook style information goes, FAS fricks. The bulletin organization has become a bit of meme in recent years, but that's the iron law of bureaucracy in action. FAS has remained fairly focused on technical material and hasn't suffered the same brainrot. It's just by tradition that they publish this in the bulletin journal.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Pournelle#Pournelle's_iron_law_of_bureaucracy

  18. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is an activist rag masquerading as a scholarly journal. Pay them no mind.

  19. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Aren't these the same stupid nerds that made up nuclear winter?

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      No, it started at SAC.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        >Strategic Air Command made up a bullshit theory to make Nuclear War worse than it was
        Makes no sense but ok.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          The military does R&D
          Shocking

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            all that research and development just killed your relationships with your countrymen.

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              what

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                find out any day you pigs want to tread on me again b***h
                there is no country with you idiots alive

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                alright cool

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                come to applachia fed boy

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          >autism cant metaphor
          die warnonger homosexual

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            cant metaphor
            >die warnonger homosexual
            back to bunkerchan quisling

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              quote arrows

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        >No, it started at SAC.
        Untrue it was a kgb psyop promulgated via academicia that then surfaced in media and entertainment as well as groups like CND. Stop lying Russian.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          Shut up homosexual
          Effects of Superweapons Upon the Climate of the World: A Preliminary Study
          1952

  20. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    tl;dr

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      NTA but basically Armata with NOOKS
      >land leg
      >struggling to maintain their dwindling Soviet hand-me-downs. Hypersanic and beeg missiles don't actually solve the core issue
      >air leg
      >critically endangered
      >sea leg
      >most credible and versatile of the three, but also
      >Russian Navy

  21. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Finishing the 2nd half now.

    Bombers, continued
    >situation fubar

    Tactical nook types:
    >Its estimated stockpile of roughly 1,000 to 2,000 NSNW warheads includes warheads for air-to-surface missiles, gravity bombs, depth charges, torpedoes, anti-aircraft, anti-ship, anti-submarine, anti-ballistic missile systems, and nuclear mines, as well as nuclear warheads for Russia’s dual-capable ground-launched SS-26 Iskander missile systems. (US Department of State 2023b).

    >As far as we can ascertain, the biggest user of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in the Russian military is the navy, which we estimate has roughly 784 warheads[.]

    Next class of nuclear attack sub (Project 885/M or Yasen-M):
    4x Yasen are active
    - Severodvinsk
    - Kazan
    - Novosibirsk
    - Krasnoyarsk
    5x Yasen-M are "in various stages of construction"
    - Arkhangelsk is nearly ready
    3x Yasen-M are under consideration as additional buildout

    Borei-K cruise missile sub variant of Borei SSBN is probably excess to requirements, in light of expanded Yasen-M plans, and probably not being developed.

    Air-launched tactical nooks:
    >The Russian Air Force is estimated to be assigned roughly 334 nonstrategic weapons

    Su34 replacements for Su24M continue apace.
    Su57 "batch" delivered.
    Things we know because vatniks tell us daily

  22. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Nuclear AD:
    >A 2023 State Department assessment suggested that Russia uses nonstrategic nuclear warheads for “anti-aircraft” and “anti-ballistic missile systems” (US Department of State 2023b). Coastal defense systems using the 3M-55 (SS-N-26) anti-ship missile might also be dual-capable.

    >This includes the A-135 anti-ballistic missile defense system around Moscow that is equipped with 68 nuclear-tipped 53T6 Gazelle interceptors. The system is being upgraded to the A-235 with the Nudol anti-ballistic and anti-satellite interceptor that is expected to enter service by the end of 2025 (TASS 2021e). It is possible that the A-235 system will not be equipped with nuclear warheads and will instead rely on conventional warheads or kinetic hit-to-kill technology (Krasnaya Zvezda 2017; Starchak 2023b).

    >Dual-capable air-defense systems include the mobile S-300 (SA-20) and S-400 (SA-21) that are designed for theater air (and some missile) defense. US government sources privately indicate that Russia maintains nuclear warheads for both systems.

    >Given these developments, we estimate that nearly 250 nuclear warheads are available for air defense forces today, plus an estimated 95 additional warheads for the Moscow A-135 missile defense system and coastal defense units, making a total inventory of about 345 warheads[.]

    Iskander has now fully replaced Tochka/Scarab in the military districts that matter. Estimated 75 warheads available for short-range ballistic missiles.

    And finally:
    >Russia has no less than "several dozen" nork nooks

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      has no less than "several dozen" nork nooks
      What do you mean by this?

  23. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    can't trust FAS
    they always downplay the asiatics nuclear arsenals and willingness to die

  24. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Actually interesting thread.
    10/10 OP
    Can't wait to see the followup for China, India, and Pakistan.

  25. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
    This is actually a good analysis, and good topic OP.
    But the Doomsday clock is by far the dumbest shit they have ever made. What the actual frick is the point of it besides a media headline?

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      That's exactly the point. Raising normalgay awareness.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      psychological warfare

  26. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    I wonder when the US nuclear modernization program is going to start

    im sure moving the Nuclear program away from 5_1/4 floppy disc
    to
    the 3_1/2 will be a huge strategic intiative,
    that will drive US nuclear weapons into the 21st century in style

    true "alien civilization" levels of technology over its nearest rivals, who are all 50+ years behind at this point

  27. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    gay and not real

  28. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >FAS / Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
    Are they independent and fact based like Belling Cat?

  29. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Ah that reminds me now that about 2 years ago FAS pushed some imagery with a bunch of colored dots on it claiming China was building missile silos aimed at Our Freedom™.

    It turns out the federation of "scientists" that produced this were two Ivy League snobs that didn't have a job in government yet.

  30. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Nuclear war is massively destructive, but not civilizational ending. You take 2000 Topols @ 800 Kilotonnes/warhead with the 5 PSI overpressure and *dry wood usually burns* cal/cm^2, you cover a damage area about the size of Iowa, which, if you're in a basement, can be about 1/2 the distance from the fireball and survive just fine. If you're in a reinforced bunker at the primary target areas, you'll also be just fine.

  31. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Wait. They still deploy silo missiles? I thought the USSR went to all TEL-based systems?

  32. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >le number go down
    Rusbros... We cant compete... It's over...

  33. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >FAS / Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
    They learn towards being professional doomers because as with eco stuff money flows towards doom. Neither are they subject matter experts in delivery system capacity, capability or how decrepit it is. Much of the tritium in Russias nuclear detonators along with the circuits in their warheads are in operable or decayed to the point of massively effecting weapon capability and reliability. The same for many of their delivery systems. There is interesting data in the material from the Institute of Atomic Scientists but it has to be read skeptically.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      >has to be read skeptically
      All things have to be read skeptically. I do not reserve an ounce of skepticisim for any man.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        >I do not reserve an ounce of skepticisim for any man.

        >https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-03/russian-nuclear-weapons-2024/
        "In December 2023, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reported that modern weapons and equipment now make up 95 percent of Russia’s nuclear triad—an increase of 3.7 percent from the previous year (Russian Federation 2023b)."
        yeah. i always believe him

        >Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu
        I suggest you start

        Shut up homosexual
        Effects of Superweapons Upon the Climate of the World: A Preliminary Study
        1952

        " In the 1980s, after Crutzen and Birks1 pointed out
        that smoke from fires following a nuclear war could
        have important climate effects, Turco et al.2 used a
        radiative-convective climate model and calculated that
        surface air temperatures could fall below freezing in
        the middle of continents from the effects of smoke
        generated by a full-scale nuclear war between the
        United States and Soviet Union. They coined the term
        ‘nuclear winter’ to describe this result, which in two
        words succinctly captures the forcing and response" Nuclear winter
        Alan Robock page 1
        https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/WiresClimateChangeNW.pdf

        This is the accepted definition of the bogus theory of Nuclear Winter and its emergence.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          It is a given that official statements from the russian military aren't trustworthy. They still need to be documented as part of fact-finding.

          >This is the accepted definition of the bogus theory of Nuclear Winter and its emergence.
          I don't care about whatever axe you have to grind with söy wonks. DTRA has a whole history tracing the genesis of the nuclear winter meme back to the 50s. The branding of the concept is secondary.

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            Well you would be foolish because you would be overlooking the fact it is a bogus concept fundamentally bad science and promulgated by a soviet disinformation campaign intended to make nuclear war seem as an apocalyptic mankind and civilization ending event in order to gain support for nuclear disarmament in the west and NATO. Russian orchestrated groups like CND which were used as anti-NATO ad western grooming operations by the soviets were particularly influential the UK, resulting in the 'greenham common women' protesters parked semi permanently at US cruise missile bases in the UK to provide cover for more direct observation and espionage. An example of 'direct action' against cruise missiles were the bombings conducted by a leftist proxy against their European offices. The media influence can be seen in threads featuring noble CND protesters in rte opening scenes and nuclear winter in the closing ones. Virtually written by the KGB, much as Oliver Stones output was

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              I do not reject the influence of russia's 5th column / active measures campaigns. The way you are stuck on this suggests to me that you are having an episode of old man brain, unable to move past fixating on old grievances of no particular relevance to the thread. That is why I am being curt with you.

              We take information where we can get it, and from whom we can get it.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >I do not reject the influence of russia's 5th column / active measures campaigns.
                Fair enough then

                >We take information where we can get it
                That's why it should be stated clearly, Nuclear winter was a Russian psyop, nuclear war is NOT the end of civilization and sources like wikipedia are heavily edited by Russian briefed activists via Russian influences in green and leftist groups to propagate it

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Anon in another thread (

                [...]

                ) I had 100+ replies of some random dipshit screeching that my post must be a russian psyop because there's no way the russian military has.. IFAKs. You have to be wary of anyone bringing up russia more than necessary on this board.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                the group of people on this board who essentially screech autistically whenever anyone saying something that isn't completely along the lines of "Frick Russia" are really starting to piss me off.
                Its supposed to be an apolitical board where we can discuss weaponry and the like without bias or political bullshit but they are in every thread, shitting it up at the minute.

              • 1 month ago
                OP

                I am literally fighting the russians at present, so I am acclimated to being mired in memetic poison at all times. But it's irritating to be accused of being one myself, when I'm bringing info to the board that might not otherwise reach here.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                You're not the first person to post on nukes or data from that source. Once upon a time we actually had Oppenheimer

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Thank you for your work.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                stop samegayging yourself

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Not me

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                You are reacting badly to the discussion of nuclear winter as a consequence of nuclear war and weapons as it is Russian disinformation? How about you frick right off.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Are you blind? Can't you read? Are you a bot? How much do you get paid per shitpost? Where in my comment did I say anything about nuclear winter?
                I frickin' swear, you're as irritating as those fricking smoothbrained vatnik posters.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >I frickin' swear, you're as irritating as those fricking smoothbrained vatnik posters.

                Let me know when you have a picture of that IFAK open by a Russian corpse. Then I'll believe it has been issued. Until then it's bullshit just like all their other vaporware.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Anon, what the frick are you even talking about? Whats an IFAC?

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                ... you might have a point there : /

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Why reply to yourself, then? You're a waste of ack packets, go star in a drone video.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                None of the internet wienerroaches will ever be near a battlefield

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                IMO The IFAK thread was Russian propaganda and you are a useful idiot (at best).

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Thanks, Captain Obvious.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                I made that thread. I kill russians. I don't care what you thinkk I am, because what you think doesn't matter.

                You're not the first person to post on nukes or data from that source. Once upon a time we actually had Oppenheimer

                I was referring to the ifak, not nukes, with the mention of info that isn't widely circulated. Oppenheimer is around but rarely namegays. Seems to find the board too irritating to deal with.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Right now I think you are a homosexual but I'm glad you may be channeling your inner rage against Russians. I've been watching Russian propaganda about their equipment, from ratnik to canvas body suits and MBTs, planes, vessels, S400 for a decade. There is only one common denominator
                1)Its bullshit
                2)It never arrives or works as illustrated because its bullshit.
                Don't get sucked into posting Russian bullshit. Have you a picture of this with a Russian corpse?

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Yes, of course it's bullshit. Why do you think I post the russian tech gore threads? Do you really think multiple people are bringing you this shit? No, man. It's person, singular.

                >Oppenheimer is around but rarely namegays. Seems to find the board too irritating to deal with.
                Did he nominate you to speak for him? I know why he stopped posting, You apparently don't?

                Doxxing, you guys being irritating.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >Doxxing, you guys being irritating.
                Me? No. But you are correct.

                End of the day you know I'm right about the IFAK. Until you see it on a Russian corpse its more crap and you may as well be posting Armatas. You fricked up. Learn from it.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >Doxxing, you guys being irritating.
                Me? No. But you are correct.

                End of the day you know I'm right about the IFAK. Until you see it on a Russian corpse its more crap and you may as well be posting Armatas. You fricked up. Learn from it.

                No, I will not. I have been making threads on individual things in the war for a couple months now. I put "[category] in ukraine" in the title and they follow a boilerplate. They are meant to be informative.
                >you may as well be posting Armatas
                And just to hammer the point home, I also make threads like
                https://desuarchive.org/k/thread/61048065
                Why did I make that thread? Because it's a rare insight into the state of russian military aircraft development from the head of avionics development, and a permanent STFU for armatard. You are insulting me offhand without an understanding of just how many threads are me.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Again until that IFAK is on a Russian corpse its bullshit, not information. It would be pretty impressive if the Russians had the logistics to switch to it right now. Are you claiming they have? Are you stating that is now with all the frontline units in Ukraine? Can you post a picture of a Russian body with one beside it? Have you seen such a picture or a report that Russian dead had them on them? So what are you doing? As it stands it is just propaganda about vaporware.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Arguing about that particular piece of kit should be done in the thread for that thing.

                Your thread starts like this
                >Russian state media outlet TASS published
                Enough

                They published an opinion column containing very damning information. That is why it is relevant. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criterion_of_embarrassment

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                They're a kremlin disinfo outlet, it doesn't matter what they publish.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                You really ought to read that link.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                The criterion of embarrassment is transparent apologist cope, with no value whatsoever outside of biblical history.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                Your thread starts like this
                >Russian state media outlet TASS published
                Enough

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >Oppenheimer is around but rarely namegays. Seems to find the board too irritating to deal with.
                Did he nominate you to speak for him? I know why he stopped posting, You apparently don't?

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              [...]
              Tretyakov said: “I was told the Soviet scientists knew this theory was completely ridiculous. There were no legitimate facts to support it. But it was exactly what Andropov needed to cause terror in the West.”

              Andropov orchestrated the "findings" to communist and USSR quislings and sympathizers in western peace and green movement.

              A 1982 paper "The Atmosphere after a Nuclear War: Twilight at Noon" argued if there was a war forests and oil fields would ignite and the smoke would cause bitter cold and mass famine.

              "The screening of sunlight by the fire-produced aerosol over extended periods during the growing season would eliminate much of the food production in the Northern Hemisphere,”

              The award of the Nobel peace prize in 1985 to the prominent Russian doctor Evgeny Chazov specifically mentioned his support for the nuclear winter theory.

              Carl Sagan held a conference on the “nuclear winter” hypothesis in 1983, supported by leading environmental and anti-war pressure groups.

              “Propagators of the nuclear winter thus acted as dupes in a disinformation exercise scripted by the KGB”, Rupert Darwall

              By 1986 the theory was effectively dead, and so it has remained in most scientists' books. Yet over the last year, Russian quislings and useful idiots have been working hard to try and revive it. The original was of course nonsense as people like Sagan had to accept, it was based on everthing on earth being in a firestorm and a flawed theory it could all reach the upper atmosphere and stay there, especially oil fields. All of this was disproved academically after Iraq when Saddam ignited oil fields and none of it reached the upper atmosphere. Yet lazy and broken academia third world Russian propaganda shitting anuses and communist eco-morons still pimp it, knowing very well that Russian agitprot has created a lot of stupid people subverted, paranoid and dumb enough to believe it

              So what you're saying is that Russia was so terrified of the capabilities of American nuclear delivery systems, and sure of our supremacy in any direct engagement, that they themselves decided de-escalation would be for the best, and to do anything at all in their power to make sure we didn't decide to use them.

              Based. Feels good to have mogged them so incredibly hard.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >So what you're saying is that Russia
                wanted the public in the west to call for nuclear disarmament, hamper western military operations and vote for Russian sympathizer useful idiots and quislings. Same as now

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              Karakum dust storm paper postdates the start of research by 25 years.

              [...]
              Tretyakov said: “I was told the Soviet scientists knew this theory was completely ridiculous. There were no legitimate facts to support it. But it was exactly what Andropov needed to cause terror in the West.”

              Andropov orchestrated the "findings" to communist and USSR quislings and sympathizers in western peace and green movement.

              A 1982 paper "The Atmosphere after a Nuclear War: Twilight at Noon" argued if there was a war forests and oil fields would ignite and the smoke would cause bitter cold and mass famine.

              "The screening of sunlight by the fire-produced aerosol over extended periods during the growing season would eliminate much of the food production in the Northern Hemisphere,”

              The award of the Nobel peace prize in 1985 to the prominent Russian doctor Evgeny Chazov specifically mentioned his support for the nuclear winter theory.

              Carl Sagan held a conference on the “nuclear winter” hypothesis in 1983, supported by leading environmental and anti-war pressure groups.

              “Propagators of the nuclear winter thus acted as dupes in a disinformation exercise scripted by the KGB”, Rupert Darwall

              By 1986 the theory was effectively dead, and so it has remained in most scientists' books. Yet over the last year, Russian quislings and useful idiots have been working hard to try and revive it. The original was of course nonsense as people like Sagan had to accept, it was based on everthing on earth being in a firestorm and a flawed theory it could all reach the upper atmosphere and stay there, especially oil fields. All of this was disproved academically after Iraq when Saddam ignited oil fields and none of it reached the upper atmosphere. Yet lazy and broken academia third world Russian propaganda shitting anuses and communist eco-morons still pimp it, knowing very well that Russian agitprot has created a lot of stupid people subverted, paranoid and dumb enough to believe it

              This is coming out later this, year, it should be an interesting read:
              https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/independent-study-on-potential-environmental-effects-of-nuclear-war

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          book 'Green Tyranny' by Rupert Darwall tells how a high-ranking Russian spy revealed his sinister boss "created the myth of a nuclear winter" to spark anti-nuke demos and unrest in the West.

          When Sergei Tretyakov defected in 2000, he revealed how the KGB was especially proud of the fact it had fooled so many people with what would now be called fake news.

          In Darwall’s book, based on the claims, the head of the KGB Yuri Andropov “ordered the Soviet Academy of Sciences to produce a doomsday report to incite more demonstrations”.

          They then apparently twisted some work by a scientist named Kirill Kondratyev on the cooling effect of dust storms in the Karakum Desert to match the impact of a nuclear attack.

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            Karakum dust storm paper postdates the start of research by 25 years.

            • 1 month ago
              Anonymous

              Well you would be foolish because you would be overlooking the fact it is a bogus concept fundamentally bad science and promulgated by a soviet disinformation campaign intended to make nuclear war seem as an apocalyptic mankind and civilization ending event in order to gain support for nuclear disarmament in the west and NATO. Russian orchestrated groups like CND which were used as anti-NATO ad western grooming operations by the soviets were particularly influential the UK, resulting in the 'greenham common women' protesters parked semi permanently at US cruise missile bases in the UK to provide cover for more direct observation and espionage. An example of 'direct action' against cruise missiles were the bombings conducted by a leftist proxy against their European offices. The media influence can be seen in threads featuring noble CND protesters in rte opening scenes and nuclear winter in the closing ones. Virtually written by the KGB, much as Oliver Stones output was

              Tretyakov said: “I was told the Soviet scientists knew this theory was completely ridiculous. There were no legitimate facts to support it. But it was exactly what Andropov needed to cause terror in the West.”

              Andropov orchestrated the "findings" to communist and USSR quislings and sympathizers in western peace and green movement.

              A 1982 paper "The Atmosphere after a Nuclear War: Twilight at Noon" argued if there was a war forests and oil fields would ignite and the smoke would cause bitter cold and mass famine.

              "The screening of sunlight by the fire-produced aerosol over extended periods during the growing season would eliminate much of the food production in the Northern Hemisphere,”

              The award of the Nobel peace prize in 1985 to the prominent Russian doctor Evgeny Chazov specifically mentioned his support for the nuclear winter theory.

              Carl Sagan held a conference on the “nuclear winter” hypothesis in 1983, supported by leading environmental and anti-war pressure groups.

              “Propagators of the nuclear winter thus acted as dupes in a disinformation exercise scripted by the KGB”, Rupert Darwall

              By 1986 the theory was effectively dead, and so it has remained in most scientists' books. Yet over the last year, Russian quislings and useful idiots have been working hard to try and revive it. The original was of course nonsense as people like Sagan had to accept, it was based on everthing on earth being in a firestorm and a flawed theory it could all reach the upper atmosphere and stay there, especially oil fields. All of this was disproved academically after Iraq when Saddam ignited oil fields and none of it reached the upper atmosphere. Yet lazy and broken academia third world Russian propaganda shitting anuses and communist eco-morons still pimp it, knowing very well that Russian agitprot has created a lot of stupid people subverted, paranoid and dumb enough to believe it

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                thanks to the power of social media net you can observe in real time how dominant doomerism is with monkeys. Its like certain types bored from their daily lives cant live without the next DOOM around the corner

                Vatniks tapped into a powerful instinct in relatively open societies where every idiot can get a microphone. It might have been half accidental in the pre net era for then it was not as obvious

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >Vatniks tapped into a powerful instinct in relatively open societies where every idiot can get a microphone
                Truth
                godlikeproductions
                abovetopsecret
                zerohedge
                globalresearch.ca
                cluborlov
                etc
                I associate Euro greens more with Chinese interference in energy policy. No green nonsense for the CCP or China but the EU must have a competitive disadvantage!

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >I associate Euro greens more with Chinese interference in energy policy
                (OP, NTA) The russian efforts long predate the chinese ones. Vatties have been incredibly destructive in energy policy, especially in demonization of nuclear.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                I never knew about the forest and oilfields bit and assumed that the cause was dust thrown up by the nukes.
                It makes even less sense now, why would you nuke woods? Oilfields you might want to nuke but going after refining would take a lot less warheads and destroyed more complex installations to replace.

                Its like warning that if you are going to cook your wiener is going to get burned. Ignote that nobody is going to put their dick in the pan over the fire.

              • 1 month ago
                Anonymous

                >It makes even less sense now, why would you nuke woods?
                Megafires from ash and wind.

              • 1 month ago
                OP

                >Carl Sagan held a conference on the “nuclear winter” hypothesis in 1983, supported by leading environmental and anti-war pressure groups.
                iirc sagan acknowledged problems with it by the end of his life. His worst *personal* contribution to para-scientific culture wars was probably "testosterone poisoning," which gave way to "toxic masculinity."

  34. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-03/russian-nuclear-weapons-2024/
    "In December 2023, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reported that modern weapons and equipment now make up 95 percent of Russia’s nuclear triad—an increase of 3.7 percent from the previous year (Russian Federation 2023b)."
    yeah. i always believe him

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