Russia won't use nukes unless there's an enemy army sieging the gates of Moscow.

Russia won't use nukes unless there's an enemy army sieging the gates of Moscow.
Looking at the rotten condition of the Russian army, it is very likely that its nuclear forces are in just as bad, if not worse shape. Moreover, the Russian conventional troops are those that at least took part in some military operations in recent years, so some minimal efficiency is preserved in them.

Meanwhile, nuclear forces have been sitting on their butts for decades and nothing is known about them except the fact that they exist on paper. It can be assumed that they are an even greater shitshow of corruption and incompetence. By escalating to nuclear option, Russia risks showing to the entire world its ultimate failure and incompetence. In the event that the Russian nuclear forces fail to act as they should, Russia will ultimately lose its position as a strong state. It won't be even a middle power anymore. All neighbors will know that it is time to revise the treaties and border agreements.

So Russia will be puffing and making threats as usual. But it will not risk nuclear escalation under any circumstances, unless it is actually in a situation where failure of nuclear option makes no difference.

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  1. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    you're using the wrong framework of thought when dealing with lunatics
    >Russia won't use nukes unless there's an enemy army sieging the gates of Moscow.
    schizo gnome of kremlin can hallucinate that the threat to his holy nation is not physical, the enemy is everywhere akin to spreading cancer, and the planet needs a good rad therapy

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >Russia won't use nukes
      from the same people who gave us
      >Putin won't invade

      fpbp

      • 2 years ago
        Anonymous

        The only logical course of action then is to preemptively nuke russia with all we've got. After all, 140 million russians is a small price to pay for world peace.

        • 2 years ago
          Anonymous

          A retaliatory strike by Russia's 1,588 currently on alert nuclear warheads will kill 330 million Americans and will certainly ensure the planet's peaceful existence.

          • 2 years ago
            Anonymous

            Theres not going to be a retaliatory strike Vasja. You have no 2nd strike capability left.

            • 2 years ago
              Anonymous

              You will console yourself with this mantra as you turn into plasma with Arlington County, Johnny.

              • 2 years ago
                Anonymous

                Im balt so the fallout either way will land here. But YOU will get glassed 100% and you will ALL die so Im anxiously awaiting this glorious day.

          • 2 years ago
            Anonymous

            >planet's peaceful existence.

            no my israeliteigger, there will be no existence no more anymore.

          • 2 years ago
            Anonymous

            Setting Vatnik delusions of grandeur aside, a full blown exchange between US and Russia at its nuclear capable peak would achieve the death of about half of the US's population, probably similar on Russia's side. That's initially, of course, and it would climb because of how shit things would hurriedly get afterwards, but both countries together could not nuke each other completely out of existence, there would be quite a lot left afterwards.

            People really overrate the capability of nuclear weapons, the old Nuclear Winter myth still goes around even.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >schizo gnome of kremlin can hallucinate that the threat to his holy nation is not physical,
      That would justify first strike from US

  2. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    Russian nuclear forces are inspected every year by US experts since the first START treaty. I'd rather trust the glowies on this than a baseless extrapolation.
    And the logic should be opposite, considering nukes are their life insurance and the only asset they have to remain untoucheable from a foreign power, they are likely the only decently maintained weapons in their arsenal.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      It is common knowledge Russia has several hundred deployed warheads, and ascant handful of those on long range missiles, out of the thousands it has built. One guessing game in the analyst community is exactly how many of the mobile deployments are fakes, and what % of siloed assets will actually launch on command.
      Russian nuclear arms power is degrading very quickly and nobody's gonna step in and help.

      • 2 years ago
        Anonymous

        >Russian nuclear arms power is degrading very quickly and nobody's gonna step in and help.
        Ackshually it would be the perfect time for someone to step in, denuke and balkanize Russia. Without muh nooks they are literally nothing.

        • 2 years ago
          Anonymous

          >balkanize Russia.
          It's too damn big and empty to do that. I think the US and China should take joint administration of Russia and turn St Petersburg and Moscow into theme parks.

          • 2 years ago
            Anonymous

            Nah, China is going to take that corrupt shithole Vladivostok before doing anything with Moscow or St. Petersburg.

        • 2 years ago
          Anonymous

          Give it another decade and the nooks problem solves itself

      • 2 years ago
        Anonymous

        >it is common knowledge that the sky is lime green

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      START only deals with tracking and verification of the warheads and most of it is paperpushing. That doesn't mean Russia has properly maintained their silos and their rocketry or other systems.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/09/russia-suspend-nuclear-inspections/
      yeah about that

  3. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    >Russia won't use nukes unless there's an enemy army sieging the gates of Moscow.
    I tested the hypothesis that they will with a significance level of .05 and I have concluded after taking a random selection of countries and found at least 10 successes, 10 failures possible and a p̂ = 60. Running this through with the null hypothesis of .5, and an alternative hypothesis of <.5 I have concluded op is a homosexual

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      Welp, sorry, OP. It's mathematically proven.

  4. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    >Russia won't use nukes unless there's an enemy army sieging the gates of Moscow.

    ukrainian and westerners are delusional

    lol

    you, guys don't understand russia

    russians are doomsters and their tv has been preparing them for nuking the west and ukraine for more than 8 years

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >russians are doomsters

      Average Russian to whom the TV is directed has zero say on any political matters.

      • 2 years ago
        Anonymous

        putin is a doomster too

        any hope the west have had to change the behaviour of russia is oligarchs but they have proven to be overrated and pretty much impotent

        you just want to believe that russia will bleed dry and retreat, but it's impossible. either they are winning conventionally or use nukes

        • 2 years ago
          Anonymous

          yet he flies to Iran and is willing to get humiliated sucking the wiener of Erdogan just so Turkey will use some rubles, some doomer lmao

        • 2 years ago
          Anonymous

          >either they are winning conventionally or use nukes

          If the Russians think this geopolitical temper tantrum is worth starting a nuclear war over, then we're wasting our time trying to reason with these people and should have struck first already.

          • 2 years ago
            Anonymous

            Cute LARP, but you still haven't negated MAD, and probably never will - esp. if/when the CCP turns Taiwan into the world's largest submarine base.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >russians are doomsters
      I would be too if i had to live in Russia.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >you guys don't understand russia
      no one does

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >their tv

      LOL the fantastic Putinvision of the russian future, right in your living room 😀

      In real life, even Kremlin has plenty of collaborators who leak information to the west, especially about the general mindset of people who play they are following Putin.

      A nation that has been conquered so many times has no spine, it will submit to a stronger opponent like the west. They survived the germans BECAUSE of the west, that doesn't count. All things considered, the mindset is simply not there, maybe in the talk, but not in practice. Russians rather live, conquered by the "horrible", rich, freedom loving west whose lifestyle young russian already like, than see their country and people get incinerated.

      In my impoverished city, there are three specialized institutes related to missiles, hundreds of enterprises and numbered factories serving their creation and launch, and so on throughout the country. Slightly less than six thousand active nuclear warheads. Has Western civilization aspired to Thanatos? Happy to kill you all, and then switch to China.

      >In my impoverished city, there are three specialized institutes related to missiles, hundreds of enterprises and numbered factories serving their creation and launch, and so on throughout the country.

      All known, all mapped, all targeted.

      We will be happy to light your poor ass up with nuclear weapons as you count as a legitimate industrial target that serves the illegal Moscow regime's terrorist purposes.

      • 2 years ago
        Anonymous

        Cute LARP, but you still haven't negated MAD, and probably never will - esp. if/when the CCP turns Taiwan into the world's largest submarine base.

  5. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    In my impoverished city, there are three specialized institutes related to missiles, hundreds of enterprises and numbered factories serving their creation and launch, and so on throughout the country. Slightly less than six thousand active nuclear warheads. Has Western civilization aspired to Thanatos? Happy to kill you all, and then switch to China.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >In my impoverished city, there are three specialized institutes related to missiles, hundreds of enterprises and numbered factories serving their creation and launch, and so on throughout the country.

      The thing they specialize on is likely stealing and siphoning off money.

      Wasn't Russian industrial-military complex also supposed to be MASSIVE and GREAT? Now we all seen photos of bad equipment and expired rations.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      a risk im willing to take, if it means your "people" get deleted from the map

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >three specialized institutes related to missiles, hundreds of enterprises and numbered factories serving their creation and launch
      They produce admirable reports every year about all the stuff they're not actually doing, I'm sure.
      >six thousand active nuclear warheads
      And maybe 250-300 actually on a missile, which are all 30+ years old and maintained by the Russian Army.
      The days of MAD are very much behind us and Russia won't play that game again. China is smarter than the USSR and will be much more strategic with its nukes

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      lel stupid vatBlack person, if you still have a functional brain, then you should realize that there’s a thing called START, and it only allow each side to deploy no more than 1550 warheads and 700 launchers, which is the only thing that count.
      Also, the new super fuze deployed on us warheads also allow significantly higher chance to knock out your silos, submarine bunker,… something vatBlack folk can never hope to achieve :^)

  6. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    >Russia will ultimately lose its position as a strong state
    It already did when the Soviet Union deflated, and they have not recovered from the damage of the Soviet Union, nor will they for centuries.

  7. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    >It won't be even a middle power anymore
    Realistically it does not qualify as that even before the war.
    Hard, cold facts:
    >Its total economy is smaller then Italy (pre war)
    >Its industrial output less then Mexico
    >Its total population less then Bangladesh. 80% living west of the Urals
    >Its economic model rivaling african resource colonies. Dig the shinies out of the ground and sell them raw.

    Realistically, it is a mid sized asiatic borderland and has been for at least 30 years minimum.

    Nooks are nothing more then a insurance security protecting you from direct forced regime change like Libya. They cant use them directly against their main enemies as they have more that actually work and with way better precision. They cant use them against third party, non nuclears, since that opens the floodgates of nuclear blackmail of a global scale. Your enemy needs to be really fricking moronic to let that pass as it guarantees the extensive use of these weapon types by all aggressor regimes.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >way better precision
      Russia has always been behind the nuclear meta. They only need to be within a dozen miles of a target with their hundreds of multi-megaton ICBMs. If even half of their nukes work (generous), we're still talking about tens of thousands of square miles of land turned to glass.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      What a terrible post. Italy has a decent sized economy. Mexico has huge industry. Bangladesh has an insanely large population. R*ssia is shit but not because of those stats.

      • 2 years ago
        Anonymous

        Italy is literally corrupt as frick, if nations were counted on the Russian - Western ratio of corruption, Italy would be halfway to Russia.
        Italian mob shouldn't be romanticised, it's fricking hell.

        • 2 years ago
          Anonymous

          They're comparable to the UK, except that when the Anglos do it it's called 'Lobbying'

  8. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    Even if just 5% if their nukes are operational that's still enough

  9. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    honestly why did putin let corruption run this rampant when he knew he was gonna start a war?

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      Pootin IS corruption

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      He thought everywhere else was more corrupt

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      He didn't think Ukraine would fight back. He didn't think the west would make the changes to their energy plans. He didn't think anything would change. If a corrupt military was doing fine before (Crimea, Syria, Georgia), why would it suddenly eat its own shit, set itself on fire, fall off a cliff, roll over into the grave it dug itself and die?

      All political systems have corruption and most political systems can function through corruption, there's just a limit.

  10. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    Nukes are the equivalent of a suicide vest. You can win a argument with them but wont matter much afterwards.

  11. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    >ooking at the rotten condition of the Russian army,
    I honestly feel second hand embarrassment for them

  12. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    "we're going to nuke london just watch", scream the thieving parasites whose families all live in london

  13. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    The Russians are right that a new world order is coming and Russias position is about to be reevaluated.

  14. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    >Looking at the rotten condition of the Russian army, it is very likely that its nuclear forces are in just as bad, if not worse shape. Moreover, the Russian conventional troops are those that at least took part in some military operations in recent years, so some minimal efficiency is preserved in them.
    homie even when russia was bankrupt and defaulted they made sure that they nuclear arsenal and their nuclear plants were in good condition.............
    if there is anything that actually works its the nukes

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      They couldn't maintain their nuclear navy. They had nuke subs literally rusting in shipyards.
      > I highly doubt they have kept on top of their nuke arsenal.

      • 2 years ago
        Anonymous

        >nukes and nuclear plant
        >talks about nuclear vessels

        • 2 years ago
          Anonymous

          Same concept. Whether it's nuclear missiles (and their silo/transporters) or nuke plants (and their supporting machinery) or nuke ships/subs (and their hulls/machinery), the nuke portion is dependent on the supporting subsystems.
          The same army that sold IFV tires and replaced them for chinese knockoffs for profit doesn't suddenly get religion about nuclear weapons and do everything perfect.

  15. 2 years ago
    Anonymous

    Russia only needs like 0.1% of their nukes to be viable in order to frick everything up.

    • 2 years ago
      Anonymous

      >Russia only needs like 0.1% of their nukes
      Anon, that may be giving Vlad's mechanics the benefit of the doubt.

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