Poland Missile - something is not right

There was a huge surge of muh ukrainian missile however there is something weird but let sort things a bit shall we?

First of, people near the place of stuff that happened heard two explosions.

Two craters were found, one hit the tractor, most saw it, and second exploded in the fields which backs the first one up.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BojanowskiW/status/1592824429251215360

First wave of informations in media were about missiles in plural.

There is a radar 40 km near the place of explosions.

Ministers of various countries and US intelligence were posting stuff about russian missiles. How would they know? Previously mentioned radar is connected to NATO network.

AWACS is also here, it was almost always here whenever russians had military trainings and since the start of the war it was stationed here without a stop.

Coords, what do they mean? Ivan can we hit two places at once?
Kiev 50.4501° N, 30.5234°E
Lviv 49.842957 ° N, 24.031111° E
Explosion in poland near: 50.4501° N 24.031111° E
https://i.paste.pics/217e5ef014627551c344352d6e6efd0d.png

For zelensky and ukraine it would be a total pr faliure and they still insist it was not theirs.
If it was S300 it is possible it was launched from belarus. For NATO, claiming it was ukrainian would be a way to deescalate already shitty situation and then nothing happens.

  1. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The debris near the tractor looks like the thick casing of a solid rocket, a cruise missile looks different. Now the question:
    >if there's S-400 missile capable of that distance and was it done by russia?
    >a pair of uk missile we're chasing a yet hypotetical cruise missile?

    I think that Ukranie could had been rushed with their claims this time.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      P.S. I think that coordinates is simply pure coincidence.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        It's a big coincidence, but stranger things have happened. It would be really odd if Russia were trying to target the Google Maps coordinates of either of those two cities and not something a little more specific.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          According to them they didn't target nothing near than 35km of Poland, that still is awful close. There's precedent with Moldova airspace being violated by a russian cruise missile.
          Also it doesn't precludes that the route of a russian cruise missile/rocket was even closer.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            The Moldova incident is the same as what I say here

            Russia shot a missile from Belarus along the border of Poland, likely violating Polish airspace slightly. NATO could tell it wasn't a threat to them and didn't shoot it down. Ukraine shot the incoming missile down, violating Polish airspace slightly and causing the Russian missile to detonate when it fell to the ground. Wreckage of both was present at the site. At the press conference, Stolzenberg refused to comment on either the presence of Russian wreckage, or the presence of a Russian missile in the air at the time of the incident.

            Ukraine knows that their missile exploded, so they know the explosion wasn't from their missile. NATO doesn't want to explain all of the aspects of this to the public for political reasons. Especially why a Russian missile was allowed to skirt the border and enter NATO airspace at all. Technically, the reason that the explosion happened was that Ukraine violated Polish airspace to shoot down an incoming missile, but they only did it in self-defense. The Russian missile was probably headed for Ukraine when it was intercepted, so it was not intended as an attack on Poland. So NATO left out the other parts of the story so that the Polish public didn't ask why a Russian missile was allowed to violate their airspace leading to the death of two Poles.

            Note that most every account by NATO uses the same phrase: "The incident in Poland was caused by Ukrainian Air Defense." This is technically true if my theory is correct.

            except nobody cared because it was Moldova. Russia likes shooting them along borders to reduce the chance of them getting intercepted.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              That diagram is pretty much what I think and mentioned in a thread yesterday, at least other people here and elsewhere seems to think that.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          keep in mind the latitude of the great pyramid of giza is the speed of light in m/s up to like 6 or 7 significant figures. (don't believe me, look it up, have your mind blown) These kind of whacky coincidences do happen. Unless you believe in ayyyyys

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I had weird theory. Lets say there was a russian cruise missile.
      >ukies see it on the radar near Lviv
      >oh shit launch S300
      >cruise missile is targeted for poland
      >due to pararrel trajectory to Lviv S300 tries to catch up to cruise missile (900km/h vs 2000km/h at max)
      >cruise missile crashes in fields
      >S300 searches for other hot spots - maybe it has something like AA missiles that can reaquire a target
      >shitty polish tractor with over 300 celsius
      >two dead people and a tractor

      If first post is just a coincidence then this could be also.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Yes, I think that could had been 2 SAM we're tailed off to Poland without the auto self-destroy in time. They have radar guidance and probably fairly obsolete and chasing a low flying cruise missile is hard.
        Its very common to launch pairs of SAM to be sure of destroying the cruise missile.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        S-300s use active or semi-active radar homing. I keep seeing this dumb shit of the missile locking onto a hot tractor. No, it didn't. They use radar.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          What's the RCS of a Massey Fergusson?

          https://i.imgur.com/TLgEHll.jpg

          The Moldova incident is the same as what I say here [...] except nobody cared because it was Moldova. Russia likes shooting them along borders to reduce the chance of them getting intercepted.

          This is more or less what I think happened as well.

  2. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    of various countries and US intelligence were posting stuff about russian missiles. How would they know? Previously mentioned radar is connected to NATO network.
    Because the day of the incident there was a short polish interview with some random dude from there who said two rockets were there, one hitting grain silo the other landing somewhere out in the field. Lots of reporting repeated it.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Lots of reporting repeated it.
      Media is always rushed, in the same way that they reported the cost of the Shahed as 20k without any real source other than random dudes.

  3. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I'm 100% convinced that NATO wanted to give Russia a warning and agreed with Ukraine that "it was a stray air defence missile" just so they can actually mobilize the economies and prepare for war the next time it happens.

  4. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Not to mention Ukrainian doesn't even have ground to ground capability on their S300 and S400.

  5. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >For NATO, claiming it was ukrainian would be a way to deescalate already shitty situation and then nothing happens.
    I think that's exactly what will be happening because an S-300 could've been fired by either side at this point since Russia has been using them to hit ground targets for months before they focused all of their efforts on Hamas-like civilian target missile spam, and we've seen Ukrainian launched S-300s bug out (but never go THAT far the wrong direction...), so NATO will try to deescalate since there's no serious benefit to taking action and risking inviting muh noooooks when Russia is already on the ropes and even if it is them it was clearly unintentional.

    The real kicker would be that there were two missiles; one Russian S-300 that missed and one Ukrainian S-300 that was chasing it.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      The initial story I heard that sounded plausible was a Ukrainian counter missile knocked a Russian missile off course.

      Assuming that was the case (no clue) NATO probably figures they'll have plenty of more inconvenient provocations to escalate and they don't need to jump on this.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >The real kicker would be that there were two missiles; one Russian S-300 that missed and one Ukrainian S-300 that was chasing it.
      This is what I'm going with personally

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        anti air missiles aim ahead of the missile though. We'd have to see the precise impact locations on a map to determine if this is possible

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          S300 missles movs at up to 2km/s. If a battery in Lviv finds some Russian missile moving in parallel 10 from the border and overshoots past it, even accounting for average speed of 1km/s due to engine cutoff and air friction you're looking at 10s to the Polish border and 8s to the impact point approximately 8km behind it. Here's some hypothetical situation that could lead to it. Keep in mind that the Russian missile would launch pretty much the shortest path to Lviv and its actual target would be no less than 35km from the border, while it could keep itself 10km away from the Polish airspace at any point in the trajectory.

  6. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Russia shot a missile from Belarus along the border of Poland, likely violating Polish airspace slightly. NATO could tell it wasn't a threat to them and didn't shoot it down. Ukraine shot the incoming missile down, violating Polish airspace slightly and causing the Russian missile to detonate when it fell to the ground. Wreckage of both was present at the site. At the press conference, Stolzenberg refused to comment on either the presence of Russian wreckage, or the presence of a Russian missile in the air at the time of the incident.

    Ukraine knows that their missile exploded, so they know the explosion wasn't from their missile. NATO doesn't want to explain all of the aspects of this to the public for political reasons. Especially why a Russian missile was allowed to skirt the border and enter NATO airspace at all. Technically, the reason that the explosion happened was that Ukraine violated Polish airspace to shoot down an incoming missile, but they only did it in self-defense. The Russian missile was probably headed for Ukraine when it was intercepted, so it was not intended as an attack on Poland. So NATO left out the other parts of the story so that the Polish public didn't ask why a Russian missile was allowed to violate their airspace leading to the death of two Poles.

    Note that most every account by NATO uses the same phrase: "The incident in Poland was caused by Ukrainian Air Defense." This is technically true if my theory is correct.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >The real kicker would be that there were two missiles; one Russian S-300 that missed and one Ukrainian S-300 that was chasing it.
      This is what I'm going with personally

      Yeah I agree with you guys. I don't think the Ukrainians would be dumb enough to double down to lie that it wasn't their missile. So far, PR wise, Ukraine has been pretty much spotless and I don't think they would risk tarnishing their reputation at this stage of the war. If they knew it was theirs, I'm convinced Zelinsky would issue a public apology to the polish people. But the fact they are insisting, maybe they felt they were being swept under the rug? Or that they would be portrayed as incompetent? Maybe it was a Russian S-300 launched from Belarus and the Ukrainian S-300 sucessfully intercepted it but the warhead of the Russian S-300 remained intact and hit the ground?

      Maybe at the end of the war we will get answers

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Well, the Belgian defense minister claimed that there was also Russian wreckage at the site. There's no particular reason to think that it was a Russian S-300 if it was a shootdown. Russian missile could be whatever, and the wreckage shown could be from the Ukrainian missile that shot it down.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          this is a possibility. Ukraine shoots two missiles at the cruise missile. The first one hits, and sends the cruise missile flying off course. It lands in poland. The second anti air missile tries to intercept it and lands in a field somewhere.

          So, saying the result was caused by a Ukrainian missile launch is technically true. But it might not the whole story.

          One thing that bugs me is the missiles have detonators. When the radar detects the target is close, it explodes. If it was detecting the ground was close, it would be an air burst, wouldn't leave a giant crater. And that doesn't happen anyways. There's plenty of videos of surface to air missiles smacking into the ground and not exploding. Like in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-INHarLmFs those sparks you're seeing are the rocket motor flying apart, not the payload exploding. Modified S-300 can do a ground to ground attack and obviously have some kind of impact fuse, but ukraine doesn't have those.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            >If it was detecting the ground was close,
            It isn't so simple becase:
            1. AA has a minimum range defined by the arming distance, closer than that and the warhead will not detonate for obvious reasons.

            2. If the S-300 is designed to intercept low-flying targets like other SAMs then they will have a "ground level signal" to about premature detonation, don't ask me details, but even the old RIM-8 Talos had a system to avoid premature detonations caused by the return of the sea.

            3. If they have only lateral aspect proximity fuze with an impact fuze then there's not need to make 2 different versions, it can be configured or instead if going in a ballistic path it will not activate the proximity fuze unless there's something nearby.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              > to about premature detonation
              to avoid premature detonation

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            also, I did a sound analysis of the video there, adjusting for distance. That first large boom you hear is a sonic boom, not an explosion. That second little thud is the impact. Obviously not a high explosive going off. I think this is fairly good proof these missiles don't explode conventionally when they hit the ground

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I buy it.

  7. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Why would it be surprising that it’s both? Presumably the Ukrainian missile was chasing something. It’s just that the thing which killed the 2 Poles was the s300 and not the kalibr/kh101

  8. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous
  9. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    It is within Ukraine's interest to act as if it was puccian, because that would lead to escalation and more Western aid for Ukraine.

    Of course, even if it was Ukrainian, it could still be used as an argument for more aid, because it was obviously fired at incoming puccian missiles and that means that more AA systems need to be supplied to Ukraine to prevent such situations. Ukrainians aren't being very smart right now.

  10. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    yesterday you HATO gays were telling me to get ready for a draft notice
    today a different tune
    the muzzle coming off anytime soon or not? within 14 days maybe?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Unlike the Russians, we don’t kick people while they’re down.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >don't call me out, that's rude

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >making the exact same mistakes as in the Interwar period seems incredibly prudent, don't you agree?
        I guess Russian history education is not the only one that's lacking.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *