Peter Zeihan, /k/'s favorite author and geopolitical analyst, considers Japan, not France or the United Kingdom, to have the second most powerful navy in the world after the United States. In fact, he maintains the belief that with the two Izumos and Hyugas, Japan has a greater power projection capability than either the UK with the two QEs or China with three Kutznetsovs.
He thinks it will be Japan to be the next to step into the role of policing the world's oceans once the US bows out, particularly when it comes to Middle East oil.
Most of /k/, supports these beliefs.
Peter Zeihan is a fricking moron
He is a New York Times bestselling author.
So is ADB
Master of Mankind wasn’t that bad. I rather liked the Emperor’s dialogues with Ra.
Aaron Dembsky-Bowden?
You do realize that anyone can be a NYT bestseller, right? Publishers will just buy copies of their own books to get authors on that list.
Didn't don Jr have the GOP buy copies of his books so he could be a best selling author too?
literally meaningless, those with connections to pay X amount of money to have some shell company but Y copies of their book over Z period of time in order to get on the list
Popular doesn't mean good. Look at the Bee Gees.
>disrespecting the Bee Gees
Get out.
you take that back
You stupid motherfricker.
You should be dancing anon.
Best selling is not best written. It's best sold. Lots of things that sell amazingly are not great or well thought out products.
Writing popular books doesn't make them true - "China will collapse in 10 years" will sell a lot better than "Nothing will happen probably"
so is J.K. Rowling
Just like Colleen Hoover.
Any moron can become a 'bestselling author'.
It's a long list after all.
(you)
so a fricking moron
You just completely destroyed any credibility he had.
Peter Zeihan is a fricking genius
>geopolitical analyst,
These are the definition of surface level dipshits who couldn't tell the difference between a towed array and a towed decoy and yet profess to be experts on accessing military strength.
He has correctly assessed Russia's military weakness in Ukraine, when everyone was claiming it was going to be a walkover for Putin
He thought Russia would win until about 5 months in.
Top kek - he literally thought as late as May that Russia would be able to march to the Polish border. A moron like me worked out in less than a week into the war once my depression cleared up that 200k troops wasn't going to take jack shit when Sarajevo held out while completely surrounded for several years.
>A moron like me worked out in less than a week into the war once my depression cleared up
What were you depressed about?
lack of dead russians
>when Sarajevo held out while completely surrounded for several years.
UN flew almost 13k sorties in airlift effort and delivered about 160k tons of food and medicine to city during the siege. About third of sorties were flown by USAF. While diet of population was far from ideal, they didn't starve to death.
A large chunk of his modern beliefs center around the prediction that the US will withdraw from its international obligations and let everyone else fend for themselves. With that context, it's reasonable that he failed to predict the massive support that Ukraine has received from the West which has been instrumental in their stalling Russia.
it would have, if not for NATO intelligence, supplies and refitting facilities
>it woulda! If not for...
If my aunt had balls she would be my uncle.
That's not what he says at all. He means without USN in the South China Sea or ME, regional powers with decent navies will basically be able to choose which countries get access to trade routes. That means Japan will be able to dictate trade between China and the ME.
>And never forget those all-important aircraft carriers. Japan’s larger pair—the Izumo and the Kaga—will soon be carrying the aforementioned F-35s and so will pack more punch than nearly any ship in history save the American supercarriers.
Yes.
Oh this is just a chink shill thread lol
The shilling of late is really getting on my nerves.
We have the vatBlack folk who come here every few weeks to seethe or gloat of some minor useless territorial gain or video at the expense of 6 gorillion Wagner.
We have warriortard doing his usual shilling where he false flags Korea and shits on bongs with various samegayging and manipulative postings (literally anything bong thread related is him it's absurd how much he spams it's making bongs here slightly defensive because it's shilled so hard they all think anything negative is him).
And we have chink and Korea shills non stop that are a bit more difficult to make out but are common enough that I wish they'd frick off back to yellow land.
Idk where armatard has gone but I swear he's at least some of the shilling too
anything negative here IS him
/k/ usually has a decent perspective of the bongs, to the point that they sometimes overlook their true faults
>Idk where armatard has gone
He isnt gone, just yesterday he even made his usual thing of making a dumb thread about something he autistically loves
(Mig-31 + R-37 missile) and then when this one went south for him, he just made another similar one
. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
He already made another one
on the same fricking topic.
>Maintaining weapons development systems over multiple decades and multiple administrations is difficult. In the time since the plans for the Queen Elizabeth class were first floated, the Brits have had a dozen elections and five prime ministers (and unless my political tea-leaf reading has gone completely off the rails, they’ll have a sixth before long). With each change of leadership there is a change in priorities, and oftentimes life rudely intervenes. Financial crises of the Asian, European and global kind have competed with the British Navy for resources. The Iraq War, the Afghan War and the Libyan intervention ruthlessly pulled British defense prerogatives away from the sea and towards land. The Joint Strike Fighter development program has gone egregiously, criminally, hilariously over budget.
>At each step the Queen Elizabeth carrier program had to re-justify itself and fight for funding anew. In the process the Brits found themselves forced to mothball their existing jump carrier fleet in total in order to funnel resources to the new supercarriers’ construction effort. The Brits had to transfer their navy aircraft, pilots and flight crews to the U.S. Navy in order to maintain any hint of naval aviation capacity. And now, with Brexit looming, they’re having to slim the rest of the naval force to keep their supercarrier program on track.
>Which means the Brits no longer have sufficient ships to protect their new supers once they are fully operational.
>Carriers are not just massive and massively capable combatants, they also represent years if not decades of investment into equipment and personnel, and while they cannot be sunk easily, sunk they most certainly can be. As such every carrier is but the nucleus of a battle group, with all the other vessels’ primary purpose to ensure the carrier does not sink. The British Navy has atrophied so much for so long that it can no longer assemble two credible battlegroups and still defend Great Britain itself.
>For the Queen Elizabeths’ deployments, this is nothing short of a Charlie Foxtrot. The new British supercarriers dare not venture further away from shore than the reach of British air power, whether that air power be launched from the United Kingdom itself or from the territory of a trusted ally. Support ships can certainly be built up more quickly (and cheaply) than the supercarriers themselves, but ships don’t grow on trees. This will be the state of the British Navy for at least a decade. Probably two.
>This presents London – the naval power par excellence of earlier eras – with a galling choice:
>Abandon all hope of ever projecting power, and treat its shiny new supercarriers as the same sort of idiotic chest-beating paperweights the old Soviet “carrier” was,
>Fold its supercarriers into the Americans’ battle groups and de facto merge with the United States on all strategic policy… and hope against experience, culture and hope itself that the Americans will listen to your strategic opinions because you contributed a couple big boats.
>The decision has already been made. The Brits know better than to fly solo, and they certainly know better than to fly solo against the Americans. The key memory is the 1956 Suez Crisis.
So he's saying the UK is going to become a US vassal?
Lots of people were predicting that after Brexit.
He's saying, that the QEs are worthless as tools for independent power projection and the F-35B is not a good carrier-borne aircraft. Compared to the JMSDF's Izumos and their embarked F-35Bs, which is a far superior aircraft to the F-35B
No he's saying that while Carriers form the core of CVBGs, they are not the only element and the escorts are essential to the CVBG being able to function. In that regard, Britain's escorts are decrepit, lacking capability, or both. Britain's surface combatant fleet consists of 12 Type 23's and 6 type 45. The Type 23 is only capable of point defense for itself and hosting a pair of ASW helos. The Type 45 is better, but even the Aster is not in the same weight class as SM-6.
In a high threat environment, the Royal Navy can not assemble enough escorts to protect it's carriers, so they must operate as part of an American CVBG. On the other hand, Japan has 8 Burke equivalent Kongo/Atago/Maya class destroyers, and another 22 smaller but still modern destroyers. Japan can assemble at the very least 2 groups capable of escorting a carrier as well as the Americans. If things really go down, Korea can also assemble another 2 escort groups.
China actually has around 30 with 55 planned.
One working ship > any number of sunk ones
>China actually has around 30 with 55 planned.
In what way, exactly, are they equivalent to an AEGIS ship? Can I see any of there missile armament tests where they hit anything? What about in combat?
Most observers would say the 52D is close enough to a Burke in capabilities, and a 55 directly comparable.
Issue with one carrier is that you have very significant downtime. A ship spends a third of it's time in maintenance, a third training, and a third operational. Hence why the US navy has 10 carriers, so you have 3 groups of 3 carriers cycling through phases, +1 undergoing nuclear refueling.
Suppose something happens and the bongs need their carrier to do something. Tough shit it's in dry dock and won't be out for a year and the Downing Street gets to look very stupid and have to beg Washington to bail their asses out.
>Most observers would say the 52D is close enough to a Burke in capabilities, and a 55 directly comparable.
Would these "most observers" have tiny squinty eyes and think webm related is good enough?
>Most observers would say the 52D is close enough to a Burke in capabilities
And, how would they know? By taking the proven CCPs words at face value? Would they be the same ones who said Russia would steam role Ukraine in 3 days, and that Russian equipment is equal, or better, than the US's equipment? I'm not stupid enough to take the proven liars known as the CCP ar face value, nor do I listen to anyone who does. PROVE to me the 052D and 55 are better than AEGIS ships, don't tell me. Can you show me tests, or just deflect to, "well, they SAY it is, so it is?"
>Most observers would say the 52D is close enough to a Burke in capabilities, and a 55 directly comparable
Knowing the state of the Chinese electronics industry, I'd say hell to the no. Unless they've managed to keep some very very special sauce totally super confidential away from their commercial industry, and yet are able to produce at scale, which I do not for one moment believe
Looks like making two cheaper (lmao ramp) carriers didn't pay off.
Maybe they should have gone the French route and had a single, more capable, carrier. Actually speaking of France, how many destroyers do they have?
Who actually IS this guy and what is his background?
My friend keeps sending me his updates on the Ukraine war and tbh they feel like plebbit influencer takes
>Maybe they should have gone the French route and had a single, more capable, carrier
The only notable advantage that single carrier would have given them is the ability to fly F-35Cs for an extra 100nm combat radius and fly E-2Ds instead of Crowsnest for a tad more AEW range
which is so minimal, it really isn't worth giving up a whole half an air wing
>Japan has more escorts therefore they have a better navy
breathtakingly moronic take
has he actually looked at these vessels' capabilities? they are very very much not all the same
>which is so minimal
Absolutely wrong. I bet you're British.
>Who actually IS this guy and what is his background?
He's a soothsayer for the US occupation regime.
>after Brexit
its been whined about for 70 years
aren't japs not allowed to have aircraft carriers
they kind of went overboard with them last time
HAHAHA underrated
They have had heli carriers that totally couldn't be converted bro for years. Unfortunately for them their naval culture got rekt so it'll be decades before they can build it up. Abe and others in gov have basically ended the old self imposed limits
And China (or any decently sized navy like South Korea for that matter) won't be able to do the same to Japan?
Japan and SK are close allies with the US. Zeihan isn't saying the US is going to cease to exist, just that we won't be as interested in intervening. Taiwan is a good example so far
I was born, Japan and SK hated each other. In 2023 they do naval coops and are buying the same US systems that req Congressional Top Secret clearance. Things that have gone unnoticed.
Hating commies is what can unite all Humanity.
Pooh chimping out and reversing China's trend of thawing relations with the west and liberalization in order to push Han nationalism is to blame. It's the same shit as Russia and Ukraine, except at least the bugmen are smart enough to have not gone to war over it yet.
Japan is within easy reach of Chinese conventional ballistic missiles and long range bombers and does not have any equivalent deterrent force. It is not possible for Japan to meaningfully win any shooting war against China without US support. China has the numeric advantage and the ability to force the engagement wherever they want it, including inside Japan's own harbors.
Build your own nukes already Japs.
Immensely brainlet take for a geopolitics thread.
Wow yet again Chang quick to post. It's getting done you commie frick, Japan will get nukes, SKorea will get nukes and you can suck our yellow Nippon wieners
I think you misinterpreted that illustration.
Two different Anons, Ping Wei, the chinsect diaspora. Can you refute anything I have posted, or just deflect, and scream YOU moronic!!!!! like a robot?
I just think you misinterpreted the illustration. You seem upset.
>SKorea will get nukes
Sure, when Korea is re-unified. The two Koreas solve a lot of problems for each other.
>not depicting the philipines desperately attempting to grab onto the eagle's leg instead of the other way around
it's like you don't know any filipinos
great image anon
>Japan is within easy reach of Chinese conventional ballistic missiles and long range bombers and does not have any equivalent deterrent force. It is not possible for Japan to meaningfully win any shooting war against China without US support
He mentions this in a 3min video.
Japan's New Toy: The Tomahawk Missile
Bonus video.
Global Currency: The Dollar Ain't Going Nowhere
No wonder thirdies hate him, dollar collapsing is all they have.
China has 18 Aegis-equivalent destroyers. Japan has 6.
>Aegis-equivalent
Do you even know what Aegis is?
My waifu
Uh.... Nearly every JSDF base is Coop base with US Personnel. Sasebo, Yokosuka, Okinawa, Yokota AFB
Are these magical PLA ballistic missiles in the room with us? Will their 500kg HE warheads explode killing only Japanese officers and no American barracks?
What American barracks? Zeihan's whole thesis is that globalism is collapsing because the US is becoming isolationist which will lead to the collapse of the global system, while the US could still claim hegemony it wont have any interest in doing so.
The barracks in our hearts
>ken sama
wtf is this shit
That’s Rawhide Kobayashi.
an unacceptable mislabeling
Japan is a nuclear power, they just deny it like I*rael
>Japan and SK are close allies with the US
Japan and SK are occupied. It's not the same thing.
In what world? This is why you authoritarian morons keep losing, the US doesn't want to occupy other countries, it wants to be friends and make money with them.
>the US doesn't want to occupy other countries
Uh.. well, there's an easy fix to that. Just stop doing it.
American occupation is literally the best thing that can happen to a county. Think about where all the good cars come from.
>Germany
>Japan
>SK
>US
Hosting a bunch of bored young American dudes with too much money is a cheat code
You sound very dumb and very brownskinned and burrheaded. I can hear your heavy breathing through your bell pepper nose.
Post your flag. Let's take a look at your country real quick.
They never do. The yappiest thirdies are inevitably from very brown South American countries, or very Muslim countries.
Yeah I'm not the anime anon but the word "burrheaded" gave him away as some kind of ESL. I'm actually curious where he's from since he's so passionate.
Nobody ever called you a burrhead, dequavious?
No, my hair is usually between a Malkmus and a Cumberbatch depending on the humidity
You still haven't posted what country you come from.
The term is bullheaded you illiterate frick.
Nta, but ‘burrhead’ is a slightly antiquated racial slur
Probably not Asian because every other kind of Asian hates the Chinese. I'm guessing he either comes from one of the more gypsified former Ottoman countries in Eastern Europe, or from South America.
We don't though. It's telling that your countries can't imagine an alliance that isn't actually slavery.
You do occupy countries with your military. It's not an "alliance". The troops are there specifically because of a war and have never left, specifically to prevent the political order that those countries would naturally have from reforming.
>reee you supply your smaller allies with bases full of US troops to remind your enemies that if you frick with Amerifrens you will get what the Axis, Soviets, Spanish, etc. got
A strong man defends his weaker friends, it's that simple. Not that the Chinese know anything about being men, or strong.
They aren't friends, though. You keep repeating this. Friends don't blow up your critical oil pipeline. Occupying powers do.
>Friends don't blow up your critical oil pipeline
What did he mean by this?
I don't know either, I just heard butthurt vatnik noises. I guess the latest cope from /chug/ is that the US blew up the Nordstreams and he knows it's a moronic argument and that's why he won't say it directly.
>nooooo you have to enslave your allies!
This is just like when China tried to deal with Canada by just going over its head to the US and refusing to believe the US doesn't give Canada orders. Also, would this political order they "naturally have" involve China swarming over the border, you disingenuous yellow dicklet?
>Also, would this political order they "naturally have" involve China swarming over the border, you disingenuous yellow dicklet?
It would be National Socialism -- the model of government they employed before attacked by the zionist United States and zionist Soviet Union.
There's a lot to unpack here
You're memeing, right?
>This is why you authoritarian morons keep losing
>before: getting bombed
>after getting bombed
so much winning
>Taliban now begging for US aid, can't even control its capital
America always wins.
>In what world?
This one.
Take Japan for instance. The USA replaced their constitution, installed Kishi as the leader of the LDP in the 1950s via the CIA, placed them under indefinite occupation until the reverse course policy and Korean war lead to a pivot in ideals, gave back Okinawa on the precondition that the USA is given free rein with their bases, destroys the Japanese economy via the Plaza Accord, and continues to use the country as a protection racket, wherein they have to pay increasing fees to the USA to stay safe.
Japan is not occupied in the same sense that Hong Kong is not under the control of the PRC.
>y-you're just as bad as us
Japan bombed a US base and attacked a bunch of US allies, and the US let it keep not only its dignity but helped it rebuild. Don't compare yourselves to actual humans, you bug.
What does that have to do with what I said?
I'm not saying America was wrong. I'm saying that Japan is not in any sense an independent nation. Your statements do not change that.
I'm not even a chunk or butthurt about America. I'm just stating the truth. They're a puppet state.
>gets corrected
>whines that he wasn't being uppity
No wonder China gets conquered so often lmao. No, you are flat-out wrong. Japan is a US ally. The state of things after WW2 ended long ago, the war has been over for a long time, and we don't see a point in saddling their problems as well as our own. Calling it a puppet country is what you do to try to create moral equivalence with the barbaric, shitheaded actions of the barbaric, shitheaded CCP and the things it does the moment it finds anyone weaker than it to vent its towering inferiority complex on. Which is why Chinese women are the least race-faithful in the world, incidentally, the total and complete failure of Chinese manhood. Chinese men have, for centuries, existed to be neutered and kept as pets by foreign rulers, literally neutered.
>The state of things after WW2 ended long ago
Not for the people who run the United States.
Cope.
>No, you are flat-out wrong. Japan is a US ally. The state of things after WW2 ended long ago, the war has been over for a long time, and we don't see a point in saddling their problems as well as our own.
It clearly didn't end if they are under continued military occupation and defer to the USA in matters of economy and national security.
>Calling it a puppet country is what you do to try to create moral equivalence with the barbaric, shitheaded actions of the barbaric, shitheaded CCP and the things it does the moment it finds anyone weaker than it to vent its towering inferiority complex on. Which is why Chinese women are the least race-faithful in the world, incidentally, the total and complete failure of Chinese manhood. Chinese men have, for centuries, existed to be neutered and kept as pets by foreign rulers, literally neutered.
Yeah. China sucks. I agree. Why are you preaching about China to me?
>Why are you preaching about China to me?
The American ruling class got played hard and they get very bombastic over China to deflect that they were the ones who deindustrialized the US to attack White Americans in the first place.
Let me guess, two more weeks and Russia turns the Ukraine situation around on ol' globohomo?
Deindustrialization was more about dems jumping the gun on how much power the EPA (under Nixon btw) would have, but between Trump and Biden admins it's recovering pretty nicely. Race had nothing to do with it. Nignogs liked Detroit because of the auto jobs, now they're flocking to EV plants. You lack critical thinking skills.
>Deindustrialization was more about dems jumping the gun on how much power the EPA
No, it wasn't. These novelty takes get worse and worse.
>Race had nothing to do with it.
It had everything to do with it.
>no bro my third world shithole's sole news outlet said otherwise
Just post your flag and this can all be over.
Are you going to at any point provide a source or it it just going to be some hippie NGO's poster about diversity that you mistake for stake propaganda because your thirdie land of noguns poors doesn't have the First Amendment?
Reagan started it to break union power. Clinton carried it on because Reagan has succeeded and Wall St was waving it's checkbook around, while the unions were broke. So the working class was sold out to boost corporate profits and political expediency.
The geopolitical aspect was barely discussed because the ideology of the 90s was that globalised capitalism was the name of the game and we had moved beyond great power politics and nationalistic rivalry. Capital was superior to Labor and the death of the USSR and communism proved it.
I think the 30 years since has proved the zeitgeist of the 90s to be completely delusional. The Cold War never ended. It was a truce that got us to drop our guard and let the enemy get stronger and infiltrate our institutions.
>The Cold War never ended. It was a truce that got us to drop our guard and let the enemy get stronger and infiltrate our institutions.
Not quite. The idea in the US was that the israelites who actually own the country would sell out the historic American nation to capture/liberalize the Chinese elite. That did not work and now the US has to clumsily try to portray China as alien devils enemy while also administering an anti-White domestic occupation.
ffs i was actually writing a reply to him. pls go
Well yeah that's what the belief in the 90s was. China would gradually liberalise and we would all live happily ever after. China did this until Xi realised that this would make the business elite in China more powerful than the CCP. The US did it on the understanding they would remain top dog, and China wouldn't overturn the model, and essentially defer to the US. Even before Xi, after the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese told us they wouldn't be deferring to us for much longer. The racial/nationalistic element is interesting, because throughout the last 40 years of this relationship the US is happy to sell out it's own people, while for the Chinese this is an intolerable idea.
>The racial/nationalistic element is interesting, because throughout the last 40 years of this relationship the US is happy to sell out it's own people, while for the Chinese this is an intolerable idea.
Yeah, it's almost like the US is an occupation regime and not an actual country.
>Reagan started it to break union power
I don't doubt this.
But yeah yeah after 1991 we got way too wrapped up in domestic shit that we forgot not every country is as cordial and polite as the US. We should've seen it during Yeltsin.
You're not wrong that they did it, you're just wrong about why.
It's capitalism, simple as, same as. Can the ruling class make money by ripping the copper wire out of the walls that are US manufacturing? You betcha. So of course they will, of course they did. They don't give a duck about red, white, or black Americans except when they need to throw one group under a bus to distract the others.
>you're just wrong about why.
No, I'm not.
No, you are. You're also a tiresome schizo.
Two demoralized morons each try to blame the other side for their fantasies, while in reality the US still runs the world.
I never understood the people who think deindustrialization was some kind of evil master plan of the 'elites'.
Factories poison the environment and their workers, the pay is shit the hours are long, and you are literally a cog in the machine that requires military discipline.
The fact that people in the US don't have to put up with these shit jobs is the testament to them being a developed nation.
Every story about rebuilding a factory in the US is about workers finding out how shitty and difficult actually working in a factory is.
If the USA would be serious about bringing back a significant amount of manufacturing, that would mean that a hundred million factory jobs would need to be filled (a ton of them skilled and semi-skilled) and that would mean importing that many people.
>It clearly didn't end if they are under continued military occupation and defer to the USA in matters of economy and national security.
Military occupation means you control the government and people through force of arms. The Government is democratic, the US military presence is broadly welcome and the Japanese military heavily outnumbers them. You are taking a mutually beneficial arrangement between two democratic nations that agree with each other on the broad strokes and gussying it up to look like a bad thing.
Japan lost WW2, deal with it. They are "occupied" in the same sense that Germany is, as in: not really
>it's all the fault of the US, never that of the countries they "occupied"
the real most anti-white take ITT, straight out of the PRC propaganda playbook
ESL spotted
>Japan lost WW2, deal with it.
No shit, idiot. Does anybody deny this? Do you think that I'm a Jap who woke up from a coma that lasted since 1944? It doesn't rebuke any arguments about the subordinate position of Japan.
China can't do shit to stop the IJN, especially with America in the background.
They guy explains that China's navy is the largest but mostly short range, up to 1000 miles in peace 300-400 miles in war. Japan, like USA is long range, can project power anywhere in the world. That gives Japan the advantage in a conflict. They can cut any sea supply route in the entire world, China cannot. (He also assumes USA will back Japan, keeping Japan supplied).
can't china do a good bit of their supplying over land routes?
Belt and Road is a meme meant more for gaining influence and political favors than being an alternative to sea trade. Even if Belt and Road was finished tomorrow, it still could handle less than 8% of the trade they do via sea.
No. China is large (this is bad when it comes to logistics), rail dependent (good in peacetime, very bad during war), extremely arid and mountainous in the west, and has all of its major cities bunched up near the coast.
To give a clear illustration of just how bad China's logicists are, they have to fight with India over control of the fresh water of their own rivers. If India decided to put up some dams and redirect the flow, China would be fricked. And likewise, if the US decided to irradiate a river or just nuke Wuhan (major logistical hub), then China's entire overland supply route would be permanently ded.
eh.. i don't know. it sounds like you're really talking it up to talk it up. large countries tend to have lots of resources internally, too, which is good. and their big neighbor to the north is loaded with gas and grain. isn't the majority of the shipping traffic going out of china, too?
and why would the US nuke china in the first place? none of this scenario makes any sense.
Logistics only matter during a war, and /k/ is a weapons and military board, sooooooo... Yeah, the assumption is we're talking about a China vs US/Japan war.
Don’t bother with Zeihans nuance on these morons. They unironically think they’re smarter than someone with deep trade and demographic knowledge of every country. The fact that Zeihan predicted the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 seven years ago is lost on these morons. They’ll parrot “two more weeks until China collapses” while completely dismissing that you can’t grow an economy while losing 50% of your population by 2050.
>The fact that Zeihan predicted the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 seven years ago is lost on these morons
That's not really much of a prediction 7 years ago when the US was already involved in overthrowing the Ukrainian government. It's not a secret that Russia considers American militarization of Ukraine an existential threat.
t.Gonzalo Lira
>Russia considers American militarization of Ukraine an existential threat.
Well that’s just too fricking bad now isn’t it
19.6% of the US population is under 30, while 18.3% of China is. I don't see that huge demographic boom Zeihan talks about. EU and Japan are in much worse situation.
Please don't counter this argument by saying China's numbers are fake, but you know the real ones from a super-secret CIA source.
The issue is that over half of that 19.6% is spics,we all know here i hope that the genetic makeup of antion is very important.The more native the US will become racially th ecloser to Mexico it will get in mentality,quality,iq etc.
Now look at modern Mexico and imagine a sligtly bigger one,do you think it will have the same potential for military and economic global power projection as even the 56% white US?
I think not.
Even so China will have in the next two deacdes a masssive issue with an aging population.
In typical chink fashion they will probably shove it under the rug untill it becomes a colossal issue and fricks them so bad that the whole world can see.
The thing is you have to fix your own shit,not just go "hurr durr our enemies are reatarded and weak so we can just sit on our ass",this line of thought has ruined manny nations and peoples in the past.
it's much easier to fix birthrates than it is to fix becoming mexico.
Birthrates are a matter of economics. If people can afford to have children, or stay at home moms, they will. They can't. The minimum wage would be $25 and change if it had kept track with the past forty years of inflation. The opportunity cost of not having your wife in the workforce is too great. Gone are the days when a man with a bluecollar job could support a family of five, send the kids to college, and go on annual vacations.
china is a command economy that won't hesitate to dispossess or even execute parasitic rentiers, so i think it's much easier to correct issues like that over there. i'd imagine that's part of the big freakout over xi in general. real estate buttgoys in places like shanghai worried about their bread not being buttered anymore.
Oh, sorry, I wasn't following the conversation. Used to people whining about US birthrates like they're imposed on us from on high by the ~~*IMF*~~ or something.
If it's China, I'm inclined to think they're fricked. I was kind of expecting them to have some kind of war in the near future, but Ukraine took that from them. Aging population, tapering off climb in standards of living, economic frickering coming due, etc. Not a great place to be even if you are a command economy and effective totalitarian autocrat. Don't think they'll break up but it's going to take a lot of digesting those issues to get over them.
birthrates are imposed on the US population. the rentier class gets priority. china is less likely to have this problem.
Incorrect and actually the opposite. Poor families always have more kids as a means of economic support once they have nutured the kids enough to return value (babysitting, household chores, work). In the West the poor still outbreed the wealthy (per capita and absolute numbers). There is higher correlation to birth rate decline vs women's education levels, a trend that held true even in Africa.
>In the West the poor still outbreed the wealthy (per capita and absolute numbers)
I don't think this is accurate.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility
It's harder to monetize kids when they have to be in school. Also kids are pretty expensive inherently.
Survival rates are also relevant. If you have to have six kids to have two survive to adulthood, then your standard of medicine or living goes up sharply, there's going to be a pretty big population boom because people don't react to that instantly. That might be why you see it in Africa but not in the US.
Actually turn around time is a lot faster than you think. https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/female-education-and-childbearing-closer-look-data
>Russia invades in 2014
>2015: "Russia will keep invading Ukraine!" - P. Zeihan
Woah, truly a Nostradamus
Yet somehow real people seriously thought Russia would be satisfied with Crimea. You cannot appease away belligerence, especially when the belligerent sees the entirety of what you just gave him a part of as his rightful lebensraum.
Stopping at Crimea would not solve the American problem, neither for Russia nor for Germany.
Ah yes, the delusion that if they don't conquer all their neighbors the US/NATO will totes ma gotes invade them if they don't have a buffer zone or whatever. The easiest way to prevent war with a defensive alliance is to stop being a belligerent little shitstain.
What's the problem Germany has? That they were told they should stop injecting that sweet Russian crude lest they become dependent and it turned out to be right?
Germany is a more natural partner for Russia than America, so the Americans and their israelite/black occupation forces preventing that relationship from finding its natural level is Germany's problem.
America is a massive drain and limiter on Germany and by extension, all of Europe.
You're a /misc/ack huh? That explains it. Please go back to your containment board and never return.
Imagine having this wrong an opinion about European politics.
What exists right now is a Franco-German Alliance, not an American led Europe. America wants NATO to be a self-defense pact against Russia, France and Germany just want to live under the US's defense spending umbrella so they can splurge on delusions of neoliberal domestic policy. Everyone is happy with this arrangement EXCEPT America.
If the US really believed that, it could just end the arrangement. In reality, the US has made it very clear that preventing a formal linkup of Russian resources and German industry is a top geopolitical priority.
frick off, Dennis
The US allowed Japan to utterly destroy its domestic industry and devalue the yen in order to literally cheat the system and steal billions in GDP from American consumers during the 70s and 80s. The American government doesn't give a frick about how their geopolitical ambitions hurts normal people and acting like they do is delusion.
It's about Germany and Russia being European powers who could shrug off the US and cut it out of the picture. If one wants to believe fairy tales about who actually runs the show in the US, that's up to them.
Both of you are wrong.
US military spending isn't based around the need to protect Europe nor would an increase in European military spending lead to a reduction of US spending.
An increase in military spending wouldn't necessarily improve the military capabilities of certain european countries either because the issues are political in nature and not fiscal.
Both the US and Europe are natural allies with common goals and interests, nobody's taken advantage of.
>Both the US and Europe are natural allies with common goals and interests
It's not 1902. America is an anti-Western country to its core.
If we were to listen to you people as an whole, the only western nations still existing would be China and Russia.
You're black, why are so you concerned with appearing Western in the first place?
this lmao
"peace in our time"
it's kinda ironic that Marvel made that reference but nobody understood that they were being doubly ironic even in the fricking movie
>That means Japan will be able to dictate trade between China and the ME.
can't they just use road, rail, and that big port they are building in pakistan and go right around japan?
>second most powerful navy in the world
>country still gets destroyed by Godzilla every couple of years
he's sort of a mixed bag. but on this he's completely accurate.
Alex Jones fans hate him hehehe
>ZEIHAN HATE
/k/ Chinese-Americans HATE Zeihan. So he's based for me.
why would you make the distinction? the second anyone gets "-american", everything they say is heckin valid, especially because they aren't white.
that's your and zeihan's ruling paradigm.
Literal chink detected. Wtf does this post even mean?
It means the American system disenfranchises White Americans as a rule. They are considered subhuman by the American ruling paradigm -- that you and Zeihan support. So why would feel the need to attack "Chinese-Americans" -- by virtue of being non-White, they are unassailable and always correct.
And no, I'm not Chinese.
>t.
but that weird loser is the very embodiment of the american regime. he is 100% what america is all about. you're not a coherent pro-american.
>muh m-mutts
>t. thirdie with 1/3 goat genes
don't take it up with me, take it up with your government.
You're the one making weird sour grapes cope, projecting the problems of your shithole country onto my awesome country, why wouldn't I take it up with you? I bet you're too much of a coward to even admit where you're from.
The last cope of the vatnik.
>once the US bows out,
He looks like he is using cheap spray tan.
Unfortunately, Zeihan is full of shit. If we are assuming no American assistance, the PLAN would slap the shit out of JMSDF, if not through objectively superior anti-ship capabilities, then through sheer weight of their shit tons of frigates and lesser quantities of their more advanced destroyers. Not to mention that compared to the Japanese currently, the Chinese actually do have a better aircraft carrier capability, even if its kinda shit. The Japanese might not be the worst military out there, but they aren't really comparable to the chinks, who've had a few years of breakneck technological development and shipbuilding.
That is going to go away rapidly as the Japanese acquire more F-35's, they already have 27 on hand and that is going to balloon up to over 150. You can have as many shitbox frigates and a better aircraft carrier, doesn't help much if they are eating missiles from aircraft they can't see.
That's before we get into the fact that when it comes to on paper capabilities one side tends to overstate and the other tends to understate.
You can't do human wave attacks with ships, moron.
Yes you can.
>1943: RN/USN use convoy escorts in human wave attacks against U-boat wolfpacks to win the Battle of the Atlantic
>1944-45: USN uses human wave attacks of submarines/DEs against Japanese shipping to enforce blockade
Human wave attacks absolutely work at sea
Those are not human wave attacks, though.
>USN uses human wave attacks of submarines/DEs against Japanese shipping to enforce blockade
How are US submarine and destroyer raids “human wave” when they have like 1/10th the attrition of U-boats? Safer to be a Kamikaze pilot than a U-boater.
>ignore all the developments in ASW tech that happened
in 1939 most convoy escorts basically had a radio and hydrophones. during the war sonar (ASDIC) proliferated, and radio direction finding, radar, multi-band radios, antisubmarine mortars and deep-diving depth charges were developed
>Chinese actually do have a better aircraft carrier capability,
No they don't. Thry lack anything to actually go on that carrier. No CATOBAR capable fighter, AWACS, transport/cargo platform, tanker, absolutely nothing. We don't even know if the Type 03 even has a functional catapult system, either. It's literally a giant empty ship, and they don't have any 5th gens. for it.
neither do the nips, so they're even on aircraft carrier cap
Tonnage is not a substitute for naval experience, which has been repeatedly shown to be true from the First Punic War onward.
Terrible example. First Punic war has the possibility of being analogous to our conflict the PRC. Short history lesson.
The smart money in the first Punic war was on Carthage because they had centuries of naval experience and resources as a maritime trade empire. Fighting against a bunch of upstarts that had secured a peninsula for less than 20 years and were having logistical nightmares deploying legions across a strait less than five miles from that same peninsula. The reason they lost is because the Romans at that point in history viewed every war as an existential threat. They fought to win. They compensated for their naval inadequacy by inventing bridges with a spike that clinched Punic vessels and allowed boarding. Fantastic but had the drawback of tipping over the entire ship during rough winds. They lost fleets consisting of 150+ ships multiple times because of this but regardless they rebuilt and committed because they were in it to win it.
Whereas Carthage, lackadaisical and complacent fought to maintain the status quo. Whenever there was a great victory, the elites declared they won the war and tried to get back to business as usual. They never leveraged their power to decisively win because it was more uncomfortable than keeping the conflict at a simmer and wait for an eventual truce. Testament to this were the half dozen inconclusive wars fought on Sicily between the Punics and Greeks over hundreds of years.
A war for Taiwan would be an existential threat for the Chinese Communist Party. Full stop. They have less experience, they will make mistakes but they have a lot of people, great manufacturing base, a higher tolerance for casualties and a will to win. Whereas our Navy at this time is undermanned and low morale. What we have is the quality of our weapons systems and our allies. As for our Will, that depends if the PRC are intelligent enough to not inspire us by attacking our bases before we attack theirs.
Except America doesn't provide blanket security for sea lines of communication. This who Pax Americana over the high seas bullshit is made up by stupid mutts and only uttered by the dumbest of their kind.
This guy is knowledgeable but is either fear mongering with an agenda or neglecting some key facts
Japan has probably the second best destroyer fleet in the world
But Japan does not have:
no proper aircraft carrier, they have helicopter carriers that were converted into light acc and are conventionally powered
limited sub capabilities, the submarines only have torpedos lol, no slbm capabilities, even countries like north korea have slbm in their subs, this means that these subs can sit off the coast of any country undetected and deliver both conventional and nuclear missiles
there are other factors too such as the relatively poor quality of sailors and marines and a system that has no combat experience in the 75 years
In reality Japan is probably still top 10 simply because of their destroyers but no where near the top, both UK and France with their proper acc and nuclear subs mogs the entire Japanese navy, Russia too
no idea who that is
sure you dont
he's just another conference influencer, right about some things, but been promoting the same mantra for years
A majority of posters on /k/, support his conclusions
these are the brownskins trying to call others "thirdies" btw
thirdie
Huh, still no flag. Almost as if your country is entirely brown. Weirder still, you seem confused by the idea of individual organizations and people putting forward their own opinions, as if you come from a country where only state propaganda is permitted for dissemination. How very curious.
He's got the same disease as George Friedman. They have this dogged belief that any moment now Japan will flip a switch and go back to the 1930s in economy and mindset.
Ignore them both.
>They have this dogged belief that any moment now Japan will flip a switch and go back to the 1930s in economy and mindset.
Not sure I buy that. Zeihan is well aware that the purpose of the US occupation of Japan is to neuter Japan, as was done with the Plaza Accords. Zeihan is just a propagandist for globohomo.
>the purpose of the US occupation of Japan is to neuter Japan
Purest chinkoid cope.
>muh plaza accords
>the Japanese government still blames us
Do they? The Japanese government never really criticizes the USA nowadays. They also voluntarily entered the agreement to the detriment of their citizens because they work at the behest of Washington.
>far healthier and balanced economy
Everyone knows the bubble was bad but HAHAHAHAHA! NOBODY believes the Japanese economy is more healthy today than it was in the 1970s.
Also, stop putting the cart before the horse. Plaza caused the bubble, not the other way around.
>Plaza caused the bubble, not the other way around.
Cite me any part of the Plaza Accords that "hurt" Japan. Please im waiting gay
It created the asset price bubble and undermined Japan's export economy by doubling the value of the yen relative to the dollar.
They have never recovered and never, ever will.
>still wont show how muh plaza accord hurt japan
kek you never can prove it and never, ever will
Anon, you wish the Accords could be that powerful. In reality, Japan was (is) massively overspending and it is their production INefficiencies that makes their exports unattractive to the foreign market
I don't think any of you have ever worked with Japs before. I HAVE. The myth of the hardworking supersmart Japanese sararimen is a myth. Their civil service is just as fricking lazy as any civil service around the world, and the private sector is hamstrung by their autismo culture of "face" which is extreme even by Asian standards. Basically, business Japan is as far from capitalist Americana as you can get without going full moron Nordic or Commie, and that has severe knock-on effects on productivity, exportability, and thus GDP. Japs spend a lot of work time observing their absurdly intricate cultural niceties. And it's those selfsame cultural niceties that prevents them from coming out, saying what's wrong with the system, and thus unfricking the system.
I bet Zeihan never thought of that in his analysis of Japan. Or factored in the self-interests of the Jap elites in keeping their population docile and compliant through this system. Because in a system where you mustn't openly criticise the Boss as it would cause the entire organisation / country / culture to suffer negative reputation, who gains the most? No prizes for guesing.
>In reality, Japan was (is) massively overspending and it is their production INefficiencies that makes their exports unattractive to the foreign market
And that was driven by the changes in monetary policy.
>The myth of the hardworking supersmart Japanese sararimen is a myth.
Tell me where I said that.
>Their civil service is just as fricking lazy as any civil service around the world, and the private sector is hamstrung by their autismo culture of "face" which is extreme even by Asian standards. Basically, business Japan is as far from capitalist Americana as you can get without going full moron Nordic or Commie, and that has severe knock-on effects on productivity, exportability, and thus GDP. Japs spend a lot of work time observing their absurdly intricate cultural niceties. And it's those selfsame cultural niceties that prevents them from coming out, saying what's wrong with the system, and thus unfricking the system.
Everybody knows that they are inefficient, but changes in monetary policy and status pull the rug from under them and gave no benefits to the country or people. Why? Well you say it yourself.
>Or factored in the self-interests of the Jap elites in keeping their population docile and compliant through this system. Because in a system where you mustn't openly criticise the Boss as it would cause the entire organisation / country / culture to suffer negative reputation, who gains the most? No prizes for guesing.
The Jap elites who work at the behest of the USA. They're a "democracy" in the sense that most other shitholes around the world are.
>And that was driven by the changes in monetary policy
nah
the excesses of the 60s and 70s are well-documented
and really, not all Japanese stuff is good, they may have some tech and engineering marvel companies but that's about it. relevant to this, their finance sector (where I am) is the shits and that also was and is a direct cause of their continued economic malaise
furthermore, changes in monetary policy can be accommodated by changes in fiscal policy
but they refused to do that, just like the Greeks did the first go round
austerity measures never sit well with voters
THAT is what caused the bubble
>full moron Nordic
Please explain this term
the vaunted "Nordic model" of high taxes, high social welfare, low entrepreneurship. only works when you have a frickton of oil.
Explain Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.
>Norway GDP/capita: $89k
the trust fundie of Europe; it's easy to be nice when daddy's backing it with his oil and stocks fortune
>Sweden $61k
natural resources; state-owned out the wazoo
>Denmark $68k
oil and a giant port
>Finland $53k
again, natural resources; timber, mining, and related downstream products
bear in mind that all these countries have tiny populations in the ~5 million range, except Sweden which has 10 million pop. in the context of the Eurozone's population, they're almost a rounding error. certainly they are statistical edge cases. and more resources divided between fewer people = more wealth.
and in fact it's really only Norway that is the super-rich of the lot, see above. yet I see a lot of Europeans and some Americans comparing themselves constantly to the "Nordic model", invariably referencing Norway. that's like, comparing yourself to Richie Rich, and wondering why can't your daddy be an oil baron too. that can lead to a very warped, almost sick perception of what the average person can expect from this world.
but don't we have a ton of oil in the US? and timber and all of these resources you're talking about?
yes, and that certainly contributed to the US's growth. came very in handy in WW2.
but the vast majority of US economic power is in technology. US is the R&D leader in practically every field, and the business leader of the democratic capitalist West. that's why the S&P500 is valued at nearly three times that of entire fricking Europe - that's how much wealth, current and future products, services, innovation, economic activity etc is expected from the USA
huh
only if the US takes in the right people. other nations have an immigration talent filter, what does the US have? an official lottery system, an unofficial "be an illegal long enough get your green card" system?
hey may be it works, it's survival of the fittest - if you can evade Homeland Security long enough, you are smart enough to be an American!
thank you
>Demographic determinism
see above
>Geographical determinism
yes, if you don't fall to "resource curse"
You do yeah, the guy's full of shit.
Only Norway became absurdly wealthy because of oil and they were already wealthy before they discovered oil.
Sweden, Denmark and Finland's economies are as diversified as the US, They didn't become wealthy due to natural resources nor do they need it to fund their welfare states.
>low entrepreneurship
Except this is bullshit. They have a high rate of entrepreneurship compared to America.
>Globohomo
>Literally says that global trade will break down and that the world will revert to regional power struggles
>globohomo
>is an admitted homosexual who says thanks to his dead boyfriend in his book
what's wrong with being gay and paying tribute to a deceased loved one?
>being gay
what's wrong with that?
How the frick did the Plaza Accords destroy the Japanese economy? All they did is they devalued the dollar making US more economically competitive (which is code for the fed defrauding the working class by printing money for themselves, aka the oldest trick in the book).
The Japanese fricked themselves with a major bubble speculating on maintaining their clearly unrealistic growth goals.
Not really. He writes at length about how Japan is basically a demographic experiment on how much automation can compensate for collapsing population of young workforce-age people. He basically uses Japan as a barometer for the rest of the developed world.
Does he write about the other, quickly failing, demographic experiment?
You'll have to be more specific me amigo
Replacement migration in the west
Nope.
It's happening everywhere though. Honestly no different than slavery if you wanna get really abstract. But Mexico is our largest trading partner (sorry Liao) and they have they have the best value-added manufacturing on the planet. Basically they're getting Americanized. I'm biased though because I had a Mexican gf for a couple years.
>It's happening everywhere though.
No. Only in the West in the aftermath of WWII.
Only places with expensive labor where it's cheaper to import foreigners than pay good wages to natives? Weird.
Plenty of Asian countries with relatively expensive labor and its not happening there. It's about the outcome of WWII. Economics is just a cover story the occupation regime tells to the more alert.
Name three.
Isn't the annual salary in Japan $20k?
Isn't japan also greying at an astronomical pace and literally importing Philippino caretakers for all their old folks?
>one minute five seconds apart.
I'm not sure what your picture is supposed to represent. Like, I don't get the meme. The US regime is BLM.
>The US regime is BLM.
Clearly not, what shithole do you come from where your media tells you this?
Man, you shills are brazen.
You can't even post your flag, brownoid.
>Basically they're getting Americanized.
Other way around
There's a reason you know about PrepHole in whatever shithole you're posting from. America only exports culture.
https://lindynewsletter.beehiiv.com/p/one-thousand-year-american-empire
Cool article, and my case in point. Is it supposed to be anti-American or something?
no, was just backing up your argument
Nice, bookmarked that writer
Here is a good 5min video on it.
The Canadian Treadmill...Stops
Like Mearsheimer he's too much of a hardcore determinist to not set off my bullshit meter.
Don't talk on my behalf, homosexual.
Most of /k/ is in agreement that OP is a moron and is into scat porn
Only people in America with odd obsession to hate Japan is Chinese Americans. But they are not keen on moving back to their glorious homeland aka Apple IPhone factory.
>Zeihan identifies as a gay man
>now the US has to clumsily try to portray China as alien devils
>clumsily try
kek
right, but it doesn't make a lot of sense since the ruling paradigm in postwar occupation west is that the european race specifically is the root of all evil and any non-european race is holy and sacrosanct and beyond reproach, with unlimited rights to enter any western lands for any reason and help themselves to whatever they want
hwo would you like a job on RT?
RT is always very careful to never really touch the specifically anti-White nature of the US occupation regime, obviously because russia is a successor state to a postwar order country.
it's a clumsy cutout they have to make for china and it's something that could only be driven by elite interests.
>ctrl+paradigm
I offer English lessons
Once again thirdies cannot understand that a moronic philosophy like BLM getting to air its views too (and being run down by riot police and patriotic civilians the moment it left the few cities with traitor mayors on their side) does not make BLM's views state policy, because in thirdie countries only state propaganda is an acceptable opinion. Sad, many such cases.
lol okay pvt
>no rebuttal
I accept your concession.
lmao it's actually
>ctrl+f 'ruling paradigm'
Where do they even teach this kind of language??
I’ve never heard of this guy but he’s essentially right. There’s a big prestige premium on the ability to globally project power but it doesn’t affect your actual strength.
Ruling paradigm
Never understood why Yanks feel the need to deny that they have neutered the Japs. Subduing the enemy who tried to kill you doesn't make you a bad person, you know?
Post Suez Canal.
You want me to deny the outcome of the Suez Crisis? No thanks. I'm not into denying the truth of the present day.
He said japan is 3rd to the UK and USA
yeah
>once the US bows out
I think people dont realize that there actually more chance that we colonize the Moon before the US military fall into 2nd place.
Bullshit, fhough I'm ready to reconsider if Japan takes Kurils back from Russia.
Peter Zeihan looks like he enjoys twinks.
this guy was destroyed by vlad vexler
I liked vlad's video on him, I don't think it destroyed him. But it did a lot to show me how uncritical I was about Zeihan's lack of depth and use of rhetoric. I'm looking forward to watching Vlad's video on that little creep Mearsheimer. In his Zeihan video he touched on what I suggested: Mearshiemer loves his own theories about states too much to be counted on to make predictions about individuals.
He's interesting but as he says himself, he's a generalist. And he rarely takes into consideration the agency of or politics between individuals. He looks at his graphs and sees a destiny that he markets ruthlessly instead of constraining factors for the people therein.
if you've heard of them then they're almost certainly just pop-analysis tbh
t. expert
literally who?
I could swear I read that Japan was in the process of ditching SDF only which would allow them to build such a force. China being belligerent as frick lately with a weak US response being predicted if they pull the trigger on Taiwan seems like a perfect excuse to get serious again. I bet they full well expect war with the hive to happen in the next couple decades.
If the Japanese truly got serious about their military capabilities I have no doubt they'd make him right and shit out a powerful navy. Smaller VTOL/STOVL carriers make a lot of sense for them too. The supercarrier can be Japan itself considering the two nations they are most likely to fight at any point in the next century are both in range of ground based aircraft.
>it's not state policy goyim
>we're just expressing ourselves at our embassies
Gave me strong grifter vibes on Rogan. Not saying he is completely wrong about a lot of things but many of his predictions about the future felt very hyperbolic and fatalistic.
Zeihan is a consultant who runs a firm which gives geo-political takes. He makes seemingly well informed and hyperbolic statements as advertisement for his firm and books. Hell fricker went on the Joe Rogan podcast to say completely unsubstanciated shit, which is his M.O., so you buy his books.
He is a hardcore demographic and geographic deterministic, which whilst a valid school of thought basically leads to him disregarding trend data and say shit like 'Russia will go to X choke points so they can choose how they die as a civlization' which sounds like something interesting in reference to Ukraine but if you analyze it at all with such question as 'When has a Russian official stated this' it kind of falls apart. Alot of what he says could be prefaced with 'wouldn't it be cool if X said this'.
>He is a hardcore demographic and geographic deterministic
what's that mean?
it means that he thinks because the USA had a spike of illegal mestizo births in the 2000s and gets lots of immigration from places like nigeria that it is better positioned for the future than places like China and Russia who have had a a dip in births over the last ~30 years
oh and the mighty mississippi river, too.
Demographic determinism means that if you don't accept lots of immigration, then your GDP number doesn't go up fast and you will lose to multicultural Europe + USA. Nevermind the fact that families in the west have been absolutely destroyed and nobody wants to have children because their careers won't advance if they do, so the problem will just keep repeating itself and eventually you'll run out of immigrants.
Geographical determinism is basically Guns Germs and Steel type shit.
Your actions are already pre determined by the area you inhabit and your population. He basically says that *any* Russian state would have attacked Ukraine because geographically it has like 3 of the 9 possible attack vectors into Russia across the East European grasslands. Russias ultimate goal according to him is to re-reach its geographic height under the Soviets, control the access points into Russia. Then they die, as he see's Russian demographic collapse as irreversible, but according to him they want to die holding these access points so they can 'choose how they die'.
Problem with this sort of thinking is that this its mostly projection. For example, was Putin thinking of...any of this before going to war in Ukraine? Probably not, he probably had regime surivial and pan-slavism to mind. You also have to think how divorced this thinking is to reality, because Zeihan makes no mention of Russian thinking or sources in this situation. One would ask, for example, why did the USSR collapse if it held the prime spot and had achieved Russia's geopolitical destiny?? Zeihan has some decent takes on logistic and military issues but move him outside of that and his line of reasoning breaks pretty easy
I fricking hate GGS shit so much its unreal
>Problem with this sort of thinking is that this its mostly projection. For example, was Putin thinking of...any of this before going to war in Ukraine? Probably not, he probably had regime surivial and pan-slavism to mind. You also have to think how divorced this thinking is to reality, because Zeihan makes no mention of Russian thinking or sources in this situation. One would ask, for example, why did the USSR collapse if it held the prime spot and had achieved Russia's geopolitical destiny?? Zeihan has some decent takes on logistic and military issues but move him outside of that and his line of reasoning breaks pretty easy
You could make the argument he doesn't need to consciously think about it. My own observation before the Ukraine war was Putin has a war every 10 years or so. Chechnya in the 90's, Georgia in the 00's, Crimea annexation in the 10's, and now full on war with Ukraine 2: Electric boogaloo in the 20's. Yeah, it's not perfectly every 10 years, but it is a noticeable pattern. It lets him slowly (try and fail) to rebuild the USSR without catching too much western heat, the problem is that Ukraine was much like Poland in 1939.
>a noticeable pattern
without a sound foundation of theory and evidence, is pareidolia
It's not pareidolia if the logic behind it is that it lets the west wag its finger at Russia then he just waits until they've forgotten about it.
like Zeihan's theories, you have to prove that this is what Russia's strategy actually is
Putin could be throwing darts at the calendar for all you know
Okay, what's your proven theory, jackass? Ten bucks says you don't have one because you're a fencesitter with no opinions of your own.
I don't have a proven theory because I'm not a Russian geopolitical analyst. Unlike Zeihan however I never set myself up to be one.
My pet theory is that Putin's cabal of Soviet-era officers got bored and decided they needed to use up their Soviet arsenal before they died and the weapons expired, hoping to enlarge the country by 30% in one stroke. But again; that's just my theory. I have no proof and I don't pretend that it's any more valid than map painting.
>mershimer
Mearsheimer's "realism" is the most childish take I've ever seen passed off as a valid theory of international relations. it boils down to
>we gon' do what we gon' do, if that's shaking down NATO for lunch money, dems da breaks
I seen the same reasoning in fricking Dangerous Minds. positively sophomoric.
>academic
yeah, as in
>Having little practical use or value, as by being overly detailed and unengaging, or by being theoretical and speculative with no practical importance
or
>So scholarly as to be unaware of the outside world; lacking in worldliness; inexperienced in practical matters
>I don't have a proven theory because I'm not a Russian geopolitical analyst. Unlike Zeihan however I never set myself up to be one.
Weak excuse. Grow a backbone and stop relying on appeal to authority.
>My pet theory is that Putin's cabal of Soviet-era officers got bored and decided they needed to use up their Soviet arsenal before they died and the weapons expired, hoping to enlarge the country by 30% in one stroke. But again; that's just my theory. I have no proof and I don't pretend that it's any more valid than map painting.
No Human thinks like this. It's like saying Desert Storm happened because the Cold War ended and the US wanted to splurge.
>appeal to authority
what appeal to authority is there? if anything, my take is exactly the opposite: because I don't have any proof whatsoever, I'm not going to set up my theory as anything more than armchair speculation
>No Human thinks like this
You've never heard of "use it or lose it", clearly.
It makes some sense: Russia stands to gain an overnight 30% growth in key resources, before any synergistic effects across the economy, and all it stood to expend - had things gone according to plan - is obsolete stuff that's going out of date anyway
>its mostly projection. For example, was Putin thinking of...any of this before going to war in Ukraine? Probably not, he probably had regime surivial and pan-slavism to mind
I think so too
sounds like a highly academic (in more than one sense of the word) theory with little actual backing.
He is at least better then mershimer in that he acknowledges reality and ascribes meaning to it academically rather then the other way around (ie realism justfies Russian aggresion but not NATO aggresion for reasons).
The thing is this *isn't* that academic either. Sure is a theory in IR but its more like 'area studies', what Zeihan does is more punditry then anything.
Isn't Mearsheimer saying that it's not an issue of state survival for NATO [which is just a proxy for the US]? It's obviously important to certain capital interests and elements of the current regime/order, but it's not really a critical problem for the State itself -- e.g. the American nation, which the regime itself makes clear it does not represent.
Mearsheimer's position, sigh, is that
>Russia believes it is existentially threatened by NATO's actions
>therefore Russia will go to war; it is only logical
>NATO therefore should've let Russia do whatever it wants
>NATO did not do so
>therefore NATO is at fault when Russia goes to war
>boo, NATO, boo. hiss.
that's it, in a nutshell
This is why I like zeihan more that mearschmer or however you spell his shitty name. You wanna talk about someone who is wrong it's this guy.
Zeihan says the same shit too, he just doesn't blame the US for Russia's actions.
>Russias ultimate goal according to him is to re-reach its geographic height under the Soviets, control the access points into Russia.
I think any geographic expansion designs are almost certainly more limited along the ideas that Solzhenitsyn laid out than trying to reform the USSR.
I don't think the Russian state has any real interest in re-absorbing the Baltics or the Stans
Here we have the problem of book Zeihan vs consultant YT Zeihan. In the book he makes the point that the JMSDF has a choke hold on China's sea access currently, making it strategically the 2nd most important navy on earth, a debatable point but still a point. Then you have YT Zeihan who just says shit like 'second most powerful navy' which just means nothing as a statement.
>japan
>2nd
Would make sense if he only looked at the geography of Japan and think
>Ayy this place is surrounded by water all over. Makes sense they would have a big navy
but he probably never actually looked at their navy nor their history before coming to that conclusion
Zeihan's recent appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience made Joe:s fans rage in the comments section of the YouTube clips from that episode.
Literally all shills, bots, and useful morons.
Are Mexico and Sierra Leone and israel "natural allies" with Europe? Because that's who the US is.