>OSINT analysis of russian defenses on the Kopani-Robotyne-Tokmak sector of the Zaporizhzhia front

>OSINT analysis of russian defenses on the Kopani-Robotyne-Tokmak sector of the Zaporizhzhia front
>defenses are placed on the local high ground
>defenses split into 6 zones
>Zone 1: first 3-4km from the RuFLOT (russian friendly line of troops) is the forward security zone consisting of individual squad or platoon outposts
>Zone 2: 2-3km deep. Company trenches and strongpoints arranged along key terrain features in continuous line
>Zone 3: 4-5km deep zone with reserve- and possible decoy positions. This zone is also where majority of the local Russian artillery and mechanized reserves will be maneuvering behind the first defense line. Multiple shelter areas for vehicles and equipment observed
>Zone 4: Prepared main defensive line. Massive multilayered trench lines with anti-tank ditches and dragons’ teeth obstacles. Extensive minefields are likely. These fortifications form nearly uniformly continuous defensive belt across the front. Built 3-4km deep
>Zone 5: Reserve and fallback positions behind the main defensive line
>Zone 6: Town of Tokmak and the surrounding AT-ditch and strongpoints form the last fallback and reserve position on this sector, prepared for all-around defense

How do you break through these defenses?

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  1. 11 months ago
    Anonymous
    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      topographical map. red = higher elevation, green = lowest elevation

  2. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    by collapsing whats left of the vatiks army, and casually retaking rightful Ukrainian clay

  3. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    By going around the defenses.
    Ukraine command has chosen the option Pucciya is least likely to expect: crossing the Dnieper.

    t. Knower.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      homie if you actually know shit then shut up about it.

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        It's pretty obvious, just from OSINT shit.
        All you need is a few braincells which Pucciyan command fortunately lacks.

        What do you think all of the bridging equipment was for?

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          the dnieper is hundreds of metres wide at its narrowest point moron

          • 11 months ago
            Anonymous

            >he doesn't know about the biolab tactical super beavers

          • 11 months ago
            Anonymous

            Not in the summer it isn't. Lots of little islands show up as the water levels drop.

            • 11 months ago
              Anonymous

              >water level decreases in the summer

              fricking moron

              • 11 months ago
                Anonymous

                Yeah when it stops raining for months then the river levels drop. The izyum offensive happened because one of the impassable rivers dried up enough to simply drive across it, enabling the ukrainians to drive deep into the Russian lines and attack their positions from the rear.

              • 11 months ago
                Anonymous

                maybe Russians should educate themselves more on the climate of their supposed "rightful clay"

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        he doesn't.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      it's not a realistic attack vector if they don't break through zapo first. the theory i've seen some some twitter armchair analysts is that the UAF will likely push to capture Tokmak, and if they want it to succeed they have to do it within a few weeks of launching the offensive.

      this action would allow them to push westward while feigning a crossing, but they would only go through with it in force if things look stable at tokmak.

      i feel like this is as realistically optimistic as one could be and it would be a huge success imho. they would recapture the NPP and start putting severe pressure on Russias troops in Kherson.

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        NPP is not getting recaptured by sea. They already tried once and it was a disaster. Its been turned into a proper fortress. Only realistic amph. attack can come from kherson direction.

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          what i read is that the idea would be to push from the south and siege it, but only AFTER they take tokmak. everything seems to be pointing to that location as a linchpin of the offensive because it would open up the UAF to multiple options. if they can get to and capture it, it means Russians defenses are nowhere near as strong as we all suspect.

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          >by sea
          BTW if you ever hang around HPP's you'd know they can SIGNIFICANTLY vary water level even without any extreme dumps. Especially in summer when there's less water than their troughput they can easily reveal whole historic road networks or even river fords.

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          Oh. No. You're a moron. The mythical attack on the plant where dead Ukrainian soldiers got from the ground in the last seconds. I am not stupid enough to memoryholes that, disingenuous Black person.

          • 11 months ago
            Anonymous

            >They already tried once and it was a disaster.
            No they didn't. It was one of the mythical Ukrianian telegram offensives that were miraculously reppeled. Killing all SoF, two Zelenskys and one BoJo.

            they did admit few weeks ago that the whole pink barge attack happened even if it sounds stupid, you dumb Black folk.

            • 11 months ago
              Anonymous

              Yeah sure zigger, that's why russians were posting these pictures and videos of the destroyed sof everwhere, right? Oh wait, they didnt.

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          >They already tried once and it was a disaster.
          No they didn't. It was one of the mythical Ukrianian telegram offensives that were miraculously reppeled. Killing all SoF, two Zelenskys and one BoJo.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      Are the Ukrainians really stupid enough to look at the Russian pontoon debacle on the Siverskyi Donets last May and think they should reenact it with their own forces?

  4. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    By the defenses being woefully undermanned

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      This is the hope really.
      Russia is still pretending that this is a special military operation and limiting their mobilization.
      They spent all spring throwing the men they did have into politically prioritized meatgrinder offensives. Still are.
      So you have to wonder how much of their defensive lines they're really manning with what kind of troop quality and reserves, especially once other attacks start tying up those reserves.

  5. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    Air superiority.
    See the big red squares?
    Put JDAMS in it

  6. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    HIMARS

  7. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    The trick is to quickly move side-to-side as you approach the line, then suddenly change directions, thus confusing them while you slip past (they stupidly left openings between their lines). For zone 6 you just have to avoid that small patch, and you're home free.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      It at least looks competent when put on a map so probably the standard of the war for breaching a line. Local artillery superiority to hammer a position and destroying AT capability for an armored push. Assuming of course the defenders are competent and supplied properly. A better plan would require specifics not available to OSINT

      devious

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        i can't tell how good or bad the defenses are from the pics

        there are more pics here: https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1655584386601951238

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          what will actually be funny is if the russians repel the counteroffensive despite their movements being watched 24/7 by keyhole.

          • 11 months ago
            Anonymous

            If commrecial imagery providers are already capable of spitting these out at low cost, actual keyholes could monitor individual trench blowjobs.

            ELINT and SIGINT birds are way more relevant though

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      this, this is how you move through the crowed to get to the first row. no one is going to let you move forward, but you can zig zag until you reach the front

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      you are gonna meet every land mine.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      serpentine! serpentine!

  8. 11 months ago
    Anonymous
    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      That's many km deep inside the ukrainian side of the lines. mmmm roasted piggies *~~

  9. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    No matter how good the line is, if you throw 100 tanks and 100 apcs at it in one single spot, it will collapse.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      Vulhedar would like to have a word with you.

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        It's not Ukraine's fault that Russian wasted all it's Meteorit mine clearing charges on blowing up apartment buildings in Mariupol. This is exactly what the US did in Iraq to get through their extensive fortifications, though it was done with air cover which Ukraine does not have here.

  10. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    >vatniks hate this one simple trick
    >b..but but that's not fair, HATO, cyborg, biolab soldiers
    You'd be surprised you can actually attack where the defenses are weakest, when the weather is suitable and with proper coordination of forces that are not left die alone on isolated airfield.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      would that be the largest encirclement since the falaise pocket?

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        I don't think they'd pull off proper encirclement, but would certainly cut off main supply routes, leaving only ships or fragile corridors. This would allow slowly and systematically advancing with less human and material losses while the choked forces "orderly regroup".

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          Additionally i think the route behind Donetsk is most beneficial, because you get high ground and well defensible line along river inside Russia, making it a good bargaining piece.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      You need a really well coordinated force with excellent logistics, excellent comms and excellent training to pull that kind of thing off.
      Keep in mind the newly equipped Ukrainian brigades were formed and trained in 6 months, while in NATO it takes THREE YEARS for a new brigade to be considered properly trained.

      Ukraine has weak comms, this is a persistent problem. The experience level in the new units is going to be worse than their 2022 professional brigades.

      I don't know, if Ukraine pulls this off without some terrible disasters I will consider it a miracle.

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        Ukraine has had over a year to identify competent leaders who they could shift to the new units to spread the lessons learned by experience. The new units aren't full of newly trained soldiers, and the 93rd isn't 100% grizzled veterans either. Any remotely competent army shifts both enlisted and officers with experience around.

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          We all know who will lead the counteroffensive

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        supposedly the 82nd has a fair number of people who have been in the shit since the start of the war. with the specific goal of making sure there aren't major catastrophic frick ups.

        i think we're going to find out real quick whether this offensive succeeds or fails depending on how well they proceed, as its looking like they'll be the tip of the spear.

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        >while in NATO it takes THREE YEARS for a new brigade to be considered properly trained.
        for frick sakes, all NATO does is shoot sandcoons (no actual experience) and they dont have any urgent timetables

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      Going through Donetsk is a moronic idea

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        >through
        Why? How about around? I suspect besides the fortified front-line there's nothing but sparse rear support units.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous
      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        Expanded version.

  11. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    That looks like a whole lot of suck. I'm not touching that. I'm going to go do fabian shit in other parts of the line that aren't as heavily defended and find where you pulled all those men and all that materiel to dump them into those defensive lines. And then I'm going to punch through that chink, and I'm going to strangle your logistics, and you are going to come out and fight or you are going to die in that minefield.

  12. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    I choose the nuclear option and go around the crater it left behind.

  13. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    Man how do people agree to be on the first line of offense when its almost a 100% you're going to get got

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      With proper training of each attack, a good plan to rely on and support that is visible like tanks or IFV's or you know is there like mortars and howitzers you can get guys to follow you into the fight.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      Someone has to do it and there's a chance the enemy will just break and run. Like, Able Company on Omaha Beach got 75% of its men wiped out, some by drowning some by fire, with two individual men hooking up with a ranger battalion and continuing the fight. Other than that, anyone alive was just sitting comatose in hidden parts of the beach. Baker Company was down to about a platoon and kept fighting but was otherwise wiped out or forced to retreat before landing.

      Interestingly quite a few men demanded to be let ONTO the beach after their landing ships tried to back out.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      >agree
      there's no agreeing going on there friendo

  14. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    Erm, is Ukraine even ready for a counteroffensive? Or are they rushing this because Republicans are telling them they're going to cut aid?

  15. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    The offensive is likely to look like the Kherson offensive from last year, where they made no or minimal advances for 3 months with heavy losses but it opened up an opportunity to strike at the poorly defended Izyum area.
    Pic related is from a few days ago. Training seems to be shit among the new units.
    What's the tactical advantage of driving an ancient M113 frontally into enemy defences?

    >https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1655140383339212801

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      >Pic related is from a few days ago
      So Russians are going to post the same video of reckon in force from month ago with different angles and declare it to be new attacks?

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        Not once seen it posted on here.

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        You realize that being so visibly disturbed and upset only encourages the Vatniks, right?

        Take the fact of Ukrainian losses, not like a prissy little c**t.

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          >claim video is new and that it's "shit new units failing" xaxaxaxa
          >point out it's old losses not any of new units
          >woooooooooooow, why so defensive*~~*~~

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      Not once seen it posted on here.

      You realize that being so visibly disturbed and upset only encourages the Vatniks, right?

      Take the fact of Ukrainian losses, not like a prissy little c**t.

      https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1637453438588944387/photo/3

      >vatniks post new video of the failed March offensive
      >claim it's a new one
      Get fricked thirdies.

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        >IT HAPPENED X MANY DAYS AGO
        So, does that make the losses not real?
        /k/opeBlack person.

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          >gets called out
          >shifts the goalposts
          Those aren't the new units. It didn't happen a "few days ago" either. Get fricked thirdie.

        • 11 months ago
          Anonymous

          dishonest Black folk like you should have been eradicated from the earth long ago.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      >What's the tactical advantage of driving an ancient M113 frontally into enemy defences?
      Russians throw everything from T-62Ms to T-90Ms at Ukrainian defenses, get slaughtered if they have no infinite artillery spam.
      Ukrainians rush Russian defenses with M113s, manage to inch forward despite losses and get Russians to cut their losses and give back the territory.
      If anything this makes Ukrainians look like absolute Chads and Russians like complete morons.

  16. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    >MFs in the first three lines when they see the army building another defensive line behind them. And another one. And another one.

  17. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    homie you make it sound like these are unimpregnable lines of defenses when in reality there's less than 600 men per mile to defend. That's being generous. In truth there's even less because the more capable men that aren't useless mobiks are held back in case there's a breakthrough

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      Yeah the access to the equipment and troops to defend that line is important. It'll make things more complicated for Ukrainians than moronic offensives, but it's not an unstoppable obstacle either.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      VatBlack person talking heads were suggesting 250-300 mobiks per km of the line of defense last month. I don't think it got any better since.

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      Also called rear echelon motherfrickers

    • 11 months ago
      Anonymous

      600/mile over 6 lines... No wonder we keep seeing FPV drone kills of a single Ivan guarding a long trench

      • 11 months ago
        Anonymous

        The worry will all the mines me thinks

  18. 11 months ago
    Anonymous

    N...Nato sisters. Is it over? Is the counter offensive feasible? We didn't know that Russians can into multiple defense layers

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