Now that the dust has settled... What the fuck went wrong? Posted on May 7, 2023 by PrepHole Contributor Now that the dust has settled... What the fuck went wrong?
Wagner captured bahkmut and are moving on to next zone of attack.
True, in more than a week but less than 3 weeks we can expect to see this result
Just like Paulus (legally) captured (90%) of Stalingrad and moved on to the next zone of attack.
Or more realistically Prigozhin is getting the fuck out of there before he gets encircled.
Mr. Kitty, we'd have an easier time drawing up lists of what has gone RIGHT for the Russians in Ukraine as opposed to what's gone wrong.
>Just like Paulus (legally) captured (90%) of Stalingrad and moved on to the next zone of attack.
That's not at all fair to Paulus and the 6th Army.
Whats the latest news? I know prigo said they were pulling out on the 10th but I won't believe it until I see it. If shit like this is true that would be hilarious to watch
>Whats the latest news?
Officially he is leaving and being replaced by Chechens. Reading-between-the-lines, Chechens are there to stop Wagner leaving and Kadyrov basically said
>You can leave Priggy, but your boys are staying put
If you believe /chug/, then Wagner is laying a trap to kill thousands of hohols and they're not leaving but preparing a massive attack to push all the way to [insert different locations]. If you believe Ukraine, then they say the situation is the same as it always was and don't take their word they'll leave.
Russians are retarded honenstly, instead of starting a war in Ukraine they should have started the third chechen war so that they can get rid of the chechen problem once and for all.
Fun fact: Russians don't conceptualize there as being a 1st or 2nd war. They think of it as only being one more. The reason for this? So they don't have to admit they lost the first one.
Source: wife and in laws are Russian (actual Russian, not muh heritage.)
This is the same guy who thought he was talking to actual Russian strategic bomber pilots and told everyone to duck and cover.
Armchair Copelord (the parody account, not my meme spelling of Armchair Warlord) has called for people to block the guy because he just spams bullshit 24/7 and it gets repeated over and over. He said it was all just fun and whatever until he said that Russia was launching bombers with salted nukes. Like what the fuck. Even as a joke that's pretty fucking shitty. Like if it was actually true and you had proof not
>Dude I talked to a guy who is the friend of a guy who's father has a son in the military and he siad he's packing his bags and refusing to return to base!!!!!
The fact he also got unit names wrong and gave them vehicles they don't officially have was just the icing on the shit cake.
Sadly this is a problem with all OSINT accounts. If someone starts one up under their own name they get doxxed and threatened almost immediately (anything concerning Israel, China or Iran), so everyone's anonymous. Because everyone's anonymous, you have to prove that you're credible by posting legitimate information in a timely manner, but if you're too slow you don't get follows. So it turns into a game of who can post the most impressive information the quickest, and some people (like that guy) let it run to their heads and start, let's not call it making shit up, "adjusting" their stories.
IMO the best thing to do when someone starts posting shit like this is to block them and anyone who reposts their shit. If they want to sit in a little corner writing WW3 fan fiction with their 3 twitter friends they can go for it.
Untrue. He said that Osechkin (a R*ssian opposition figure living in France who has been campaigning against torture in R*ssian prisons for many, many years and demonstrably has had siloviki support in this endeavor) reported as much. It was later claimed that part of this info was fed to him by FSB, GRU and other such goons to discredit him. I emphasize part because at least some of the stuff he posted was verifiably legit.
We don't even know that what he claimed to have happened (nukes being prepared to be loaded onto planes) is false. Preparation is not actually doing it and actually doing it is not dropping them. Could just be more nuclear sabre rattling behind the scenes.
i dont believe it, until i see it
prigozhin would record himself cursing a storm if this was true
why can the russian not take lessons from stalingrad
>why can the russian not take lessons
I literally predicted this. When the word “Chechen troops” gets thrown around, you should know that they are barrier troops meant to *shoot* their own soldiers not replace them.
wagner won and went back to russia on his own power.
Nothing went wrong, the piggies are roasting right now *~~))
Fagner ragequitting because they realized they can't possibly win against the mighty Ukraine army, its unironically over. have a great "victory day parade" lololol.
I've been out of the loop for a couple weeks, did they actually take Bakhmut?
No, they are actually leaving Bahmut lmao. The absolute state of this whole war.
The new cope from /chug/ is that
>They're not leaving and it is all a ruse! There is no evidence Wagner is leaving!
Ukraine doesn't believe it, either, but we'll see in 3 days.
I kinda suspect they might try to pull a "XAXAXA, was faking all along! Stupid the oinkraine was fooled! Human wave attack, go! URAAAAAAA!" and then lose several thousand more men because Ukraine--having access to NATO satellite data and above-retarded intelligence--was not, in fact, fooled.
>No, they are actually leaving Bahmut lmao
Wait what? Source?
Prigozyn "CLAIMED" Wagner is leaving Bakhmut on May 10 due to a lack of ammunition (and manpower) that the MoD won't provide.
Kadyrov said his Chechens will be ready to replace Wagner in Bakhmut and finish what they started but more than anything it seems like the MoD and Kadyrov are positioning themselves to either absorb the remnants of Wagner or wipe them out if they try to leave Bakhmut undefended.
So if this turns out to be true, what is prigozyn going to do? Will he be replaced, or will the Wagner be absorbed without struggle into someone else? Or could we actually see fighting between these groups?
Putin is pushing towards more Russian oligarchs making their own PMCs to varying degrees of success, but overall manpower is still a big issue because Russians have realized what a meatgrinder Ukraine turned out to be, and they won't go unless Moobilized yet again.
No clue if Prigozhin is gonna get thrown out a window if he does indeed have Wagner leave Bakhmut undefended. He needs Wagner to continue to exist to retain the remaining relevance he has for his own protection, but not leaving them to be wiped out by the Ukrainians means that he'd probably be going against the MoD and Putin's wishes.
>Putin is pushing towards more Russian oligarchs making their own PMCs to varying degrees of success
Isn't this just a recipee for civil war?
Yes, isn't it great?
I'm trying to figure out how they could unfuck this clusterfuck of a war, and the more I think of it, the more I think this has no solution. Unless WWIII starts in Taiwan and everyone leaves Ukraine to fight China, is there even a thing Russia can do to not fall into disarray and civil war?
At this point, no
By far the smarredt option would be to admit defeat and leave
Byt theyre russians, so they need to see at least half a million casualties before they can do that
The solution is to just pull out ffs, but putin probably can't do that and survive politically. So the war goes on.
At this point it's way too late for Russia to fully pull out. Russians are notoriously servile to the government but if the war ends and they don't make any sort of gain I can't fathom Putin's regime staying in power.
In any case, the myth of Russian military power has been shattered to oblivion. They sent their best, they conscripted their population, they sent everything they had, and they can't beat a third-rate military like that of Ukraine with some Western support. Anybody who ever claimed that Russia could go toe-to-toe with NATO has been proven an insane retard.
>In any case, the myth of Russian military power has been shattered to oblivion. They sent their best, they conscripted their population, they sent everything they had, and they can't beat a third-rate military like that of Ukraine with some Western support. Anybody who ever claimed that Russia could go toe-to-toe with NATO has been proven an insane retard.
>Russians are notoriously servile to the government but if the war ends and they don't make any sort of gain I can't fathom Putin's regime staying in power.
Who would do it though? Strong factions like Wagner are ground into nothing if you haven't noticed. The main oligarchs are just mobster goons with no rela power - only the security oligarchs and Putin's inner circle have power but they're all on team Putin.
It's goofy, but we could get a bigger North Korea out of this. Defeated and isolationist, and it makes no sense, but their government keeps going.
After Putin's death from cancer in like 8 years is when things get wild.
Most likely it'd be the army. As you've pointed out, there are no strong factions anymore which means that the military would largely be opposed by security forces who don't really have an answer to artillery and armor. Kadyrov is the only other real option, but his power base isn't anywhere near Moscow, as a Chechen he's probably not going to see much support, and his position of power is largely due to money, support, and equipment gifted to him by Russia. If he can't pull off a lightning coup then he's going to be stuck without the industrial base to keep his men supplied, the money to keep everyone at home backing him, or the manpower to continue suppressing challenges in Chechnya.
>Your vote on the adventure gets counted in if you become eligible to vote on it, but dead people's votes aren't extiguished either.
Unironically the best thing way this war ends for the Russias is if Ukraine is able to take Moscow and dictate terms of Russian demobilization. Anything less than the complete dismemberment of Russia’s military, political, and economic systems will result in a bloody civil war the moment Putin dies. The oligarchs are entwined in every facet of the country and have spent decades fighting a zero sum game with a smaller and smaller pie — it’s a recipe for conflict that we haven’t seen in Europe for a long time. It will make Ukraine look like a warmup.
sadly, the collective west won't allow it. Russia must remain a country because of muh nukes falling into wrong hands, they'll make the same mistake they did in the 90s.
after Putin dies, they'll prop up another thug with the biggest stick and Marshall plan Russia from the total economic collapse, thenew tzar will pay lip service to muh western values for a few years and then take an authoritarian turn, and in 30 years we'll be in the same place.
>sadly, the collective west won't allow it. Russia must remain a country because of muh nukes falling into wrong hands, they'll make the same mistake they did in the 90s.
Not even the resources of the West can stop a Second Russian Civil War at this point. Not unless NATO is willing to mount the largest military intervention since Operation Barbarossa.
Also, Putin in particular is likely to use nuclear weapons out of spite if his regime is about to collapse so all this "we've got to stop nukes from falling into the wrong hands" nonsense is almost completely redundant. They're already in the wrong hands and have been for a great many years.
It's not the 90s anymore. I don't think the West is really that scared of "nukes falling into the wrong hands" considering the likelihood of some petty warlord using them against countries people actually care about are minuscule and the West could easily just trade aid for nukes and offer a much better deal than Iran. I think the real drive to keep Russia together is to keep China from mobilizing and seizing huge chunks of Siberia and the Far East.
Only once Putin kicks the bucket, but yes. Whenever Putin does come out of the picture by whichever means it occurs, we're gonna be reading about Russian Warlords with WMDs battling each other over the Wastelands of the city formerly known as Moscow.
Putin needs to keep all his underlings busy being rivals to *each other* instead of him. That's why you see seemingly schizophrenic behavior where a group gets lauded one week only to get denounced (or rather, an attack being permitted on them) the next. Divide and rule is the fundamental theorem of politics.
The moment a particular faction becomes strong enough to potentially topple him, his banan-munching days are numbered.
What even is the advantage here as a nation to have a weak military with numerous PMC's?
Its logical, your army sucks so you bring in pmcs to do the heavy lifting
Its a good short sighted decision that kills you in the long run, like marriage
No one in any position of even moderate power in Russia gives a fuck about Russia as a nation. Russia exists as a means to amassing wealth and power, nothing more.
The PMCs are more loyal than a strong military.
Yeah, loyal to whoever pays them.
Yes, paid by and loyal to the political figures and organizations the regime needs to survive, correct.
This picture gives me vietnam movie vives.
We're well past Vietnam bucko. We're in Der Untergang territory.
Plausible deniability to fuck around in other countries
>No no no the Russian Army isn't deployed to <shithole> the leader of that country just hired a PMC!
Yes, but why would putin care about what happens to russia after he dies? As much as some people meme him about being a new tsar, the next leader of russia is not going to be one of his children.
>Putin is pushing towards more Russian oligarchs making their own PMCs to varying degrees of success,
Based and feudalism pilled.
>they said so so it must be true!
Have you never heard the concept of a lie?
>begs Zelensky to withdraw his troops
>begs monke for more help
>declares that on all planes except physical, they have taken Bakhmut
>refuses to elaborate further
This can't be real
No, priggy said he's leaving cause he's a fat retard. He posted a video standing in a field of dead wagnerites bitching about lack of shells
Wagner, for reasons not fully understood, had a total fallout with the Kremlim, despite more or less delivering exactly what they said they'd do - plausible denial for emptying jails and getting terrain from human wave attacks. Kremlim decided the smartest thing to do was basically abandon him to his luck and block his supply.
Prigozin then basically meltdowned and burned his final bridge by calling them traitors and backstabbers on video.
He'll most likely surrender or be killed by the prison mobiks soon, if he doesn't fall down a window then closes the window.
There is a lot of claims that he isn't being singled out - there just isn't enough shells to go around and because Wagner had been making gains without the artillery support he wanted, they just let him get on with it. It's a bit like how every department in the US will spend their entire budget just so they get more next year. Even if they didn't need to. Except here the Russian MoD went
>Well he is making progress, da? Just keep doing that!
>Wagner, for reasons not fully understood, had a total fallout with the Kremlim, despite more or less delivering exactly what they said they'd do - plausible denial for emptying jails and getting terrain from human wave attacks. Kremlim decided the smartest thing to do was basically abandon him to his luck and block his supply.
That's probably a misreading of things as they only lost a few tens of thousands of prisoners which is a drop in the bucket for Russian prisons. Instead, Wagner said they were going to win, and that the prisoner units would actually have some win on the battlefield. Why else would Wagner be banned from prisoner recruitment? It's entirely possible this was a massive LOSS for Russia - 20-40K prionsers all equipped with weapons, sent out to die, with nothing to show for it? After battles, Ukrainians pick apart bodies to steal ammo, guns, etc so this is all free donations.
Instead, Wagner promised to take the city, they didn't, and then Kremlin decided to not back them anymore. Wagner is the scapegoat for all the problems.
>which is a drop in the bucket for Russian prisons
Yeah but after the inmates hear news of how the last wave of recruited men fared they might reconsider that even a Russian prison is better than the trenches of Bakhmut.
Unless they start mass conscripting from prisons (literally slave soldiers lmao, wouldn't put it past them), prison recruitment was a one time huge surge in manpower that has now mostly dried up.
They were suicide squads, and proved useless. If they worked, they'd keep using them.
Wagner claimed their "thinking outside the box" would get results, and they didn't. Why keep throwing more at the problem? Why would 100,000 prisoners work when 20,000 didn't? And remember, they have to be shipped, "trained" (even if minor), housed, fed (even if minimal), equipped, and sent out to die.
The goal was to take Donetsk before May 8th, Prigozhin gambled and said he could do it for better favor. He was dreaming of being the hero of Russia. Instead his forces were ground into nothing, and they are running out of people and the city isn't taken not even the whole of Donetsk.
Putin wanted Donetsk taken, and then they'd sue for a cease-fire. That was the backup plan that saves face.
>and then they'd sue for a cease-fire
nobody would agree to that
>nobody would agree to that
I know that. But I'm thinking like Putin who is in way over his head, and has no other way out. It's delusional but it's a plan. He could then frame himself as someone wanting peace, and the rest of the world as warmongerers. Why keep up this bloodshed for one more day? Russia only wants peace, etc.
He has to find an "offramp" that allows them to maintain claiming victory - that they only wanted all of Donetsk to begin with. Total lie but it's what they can spin to domestic audiences.
>Kremlim decided the smartest thing to do was basically abandon him to his luck and block his supply.
He forgot his place and started to openly criticize the leadership while gaining power through the Wagner company. They did not like this as Wagner has power outside Russia too in whatever shitholes they want to do crimes for profit in.
It's more about their sick and twisted power games than actual stupidity (which is also there though, lol).
I think some of the stuff you guys speculate on doesn't make sense or already has known explanations. Prig promised to take bakhmut several months ago at the height of his influence with Putin. He failed, and his influence has been waning in the meantime.
Now the russian MoD is conserving shells all across the frontline for the ukrainian counteroffensive, and because of that they're basically giving nothing to prig. Which is why he's throwing a conniption fit. His objective is to take bakhmut, but because russians literally cannot fight without their artillery he can't finish the job, and the MoD doesn't give a single shit about bakhmut because it's not in their AO so they aren't helping out.
I think speculating on wether prig will actually pull out or not is totally valid, but to act like we don't know why he's been having a daily autism tantrum on social media is silly.
Eh… it wasn’t really a case of Wagner completely losing supply. What was likely the case was Surovikin gave Prigozhin a blank check to take Bakhmut, got sacked, then Gerasimov arrived and stopped diverting so much towards Bakhmut out of fear of any potential counteroffensives. This is probably why Prigozhin sucked Surovikin off in his shitpost letter.
Actually funny you should mention it, it turns out Mizintsev was the one misappropriating supplies and diverting them to Soigozhin. That's apparently why he was sacked and then immediately joined Vaginer.
On every level except physically, they took Bakhmut.
>In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth
>then things went horribly wrong
Allowing Bakhmut to take on the symbolic meaning it took was probably a mistake.
Bot sure how it could have been avoided though, I guess having any sort of success literally anywhere else in the last half year would have done the trick
The fucking invincible guy won't come out of his tent.
Someone should make a dreadlord one with "Archimond? look how many ghouls died"
Made a h3 version.
Is there a Starcraft one about not getting enough pylons?
I dont know, it would be hard to make a protoss sojak because they have no mouth, and the mouth part make like 80% of sojak.
True, I guess. Didn't think about it.
why would they be protoss? zerg would be obvious. putin is an overmind and progprzjin a cerebrates. idk
i think starcraft is a bad analogy. zerg are too dumb, terrans to civil, and protos too noble to be compared to fagner
Because the meme is about constructing additional pylons, not building more Overlords or supply depots.
If we're going for an actual description, it'd be a bunch of Zerg units wearing Protoss gear, who then get blown to hell in the first waves. Then then drop the pretentions and just accept being zerg.
We were at the stage of the game where Zerg panicks, goes all in, and just spams zerglings hoping it will break the defenders. But the Ukrainians have their bunkers filled and kill wave after wave backed by Siege Tanks.
Americans are protoss floating around just better than everyone else.
Putin and his generals started drinking their own Kool-Aid.
Are Kadyrov's men really replacing Wagner? Has it been officially proclaimed?
For Ukraine, they got attacked.
For Russia, what DIDN'T go wrong?
By basically allowing Bakhmut to become dollar store Verdun
That retard needs to drink a bottle of bleach.
I still laugh that Russia only managed to capture a single city in this entire war.
Russia didn’t manage to capture a single regional capitol city in this entire war. Not one. Let that sink in
Kherson is a regional capital, which they also lost.
Yeah well they don’t have it anymore
Voting should only have been allowed to those that own land.
>buy all the land
>now no one else can vote
Nah, having a stake in a legitimate stake in deciding laws is more complicated than that. It should be net taxpayers only. Sum the tax you paid since the last election, subtract services you received including any government salaries, if the value is positive you can vote if it's zero or negative you can't. If you are paying for the system you get to decide the rules, but if you're not footing the tab then you don't get a say on what we run it up on.
To support the system you can voluntarily withdraw from any government support (eg, no longer covered by Medicaid) and can voluntarily pay more tax to get over the threshold. Any external deployment of troops gets a popular vote for all conscriptable or taxable persons to decide on AUMF (simple majority), service liability and tax liability (per franchise basis). Your vote on the adventure gets counted in if you become eligible to vote on it, but dead people's votes aren't extiguished either. No voters are not liable for war costs or conscription. Domestic deployments and defence doesn't follow these rules.
>What the fuck went wrong?
Let's see... Where to start...
>The influence of the Mongol invasion on the territories of Kievan Rus' was uneven. Colin McEvedy (Atlas of World Population History, 1978) estimates the population of Kievan Rus' dropped from 7.5 million prior to the invasion to 7 million afterwards. Centres such as Kiev took centuries to rebuild and recover from the devastation of the initial attack. The Novgorod Republic continued to prosper, and new entities, the rival cities of Moscow and Tver, began to flourish under the Mongols.
>and not keep sending men to die
Have you graduated from school yet?
Cool so the same as based and trad Russia then
Ukraine's defense faltered after Wagner developed new infiltration tactics, the RuAF gained topgraphical advantage and increased their artillery supply.
Ukraine then brought up their experienced mechanized forces and had the answer to the wagner infantry meta with better drone and mortar integration. Wagner got cocky an thought they could cauldroon the defenders of Bakhmut, and proceded to be shredded around the flanks of Bahkmut where they had to assault up hill against better organized, more experienced fighters. What wagner built in the last six (eg, well equipped, provisioned prisoner manpower injection) months has been destroyed and will never be reconstituted.
Basically both sides over-committed because its war, people are human and get emotionally over invested.
ahmat sila forces will take last 2 km of backmutt stronghold and put end to meatgrinder
Please, have a look at the elevation maps of Bakhmut and tell me how the meatgrinder is stopping?
Your mom had sex
Prigozhin & General Armageddon have linked up
Bakhmut is as good as captured
>they will never link u-PFFFFFF
>I AM NEITHER PRIGOZHIN OR SUROVIKIN, I AM THE RUSSIAN WHO IS GOING TO FEINT YOU
Surovikin wasn’t just demoted from Commander, he was demoted from Deputy Commander. bro has no clout, especially not enough clout to direct more shells to Bakhmut. I hope he ends up getting promoted to experience Paulus-style capture and humiliation in Bakhmut; because a Punished Field Marshal Armageddon would be peak aesthetics for a faction in the Russian Civil War.