A few weeks from now the macro frontlines-over-time videos will start to emerge. If only to emphasise the pace of Russian progress the last few months.
People forget Ukraine has the advantage of top tier NATO intelligence. Russia's strength in this war has been in massive numbers, not once has it been craftiness. You'd have to be on krokodil to think Russia has something up their sleve that isn't known already. In the meanwhile, if they lose their numbers advantage by wasting units, they'll be properly fricked.
would probably be 300% more effective than the Russhits are rn
Of course we will give our Latvian allies F-35, Minutemen IV and SR-72 to help accomplish their great peacekeeping endeavor against the Russian Terrorist state.
have a nice day you fricking autist, we're not saying he's cool, we're saying that the russoid "army" is so shit that even your homosexual propagandists have to admit they're shit. they can't even spin it any other way. i fricked your mother's throat.
>Hemmed into a narrow area, the 250,000-strong Soviet force inside the pocket was exterminated from all sides by German armored, artillery and machine gun firepower as well as 7,700 tonnes of air-dropped bombs.
Here's hoping.
theinfographics or whatever is still putting out videos about a month ago shilling that rus could take NATO. shitty animation and not recommended. like other guy said covert cabal still shills their systems pretty hard.
HistoryLegends. *Very* thinly-veiled vatnik cheerleader larping as "is of just honest analyze of war, comrade."
CovertCabal
CovertCabal is less a shill and more an autist that had been well taken-in and fooled by years of bad/outright fabricated specifications and capabilities of Russian and chinkoid hardware and doctrine. The fricking sock puppet, Binkov I think, now there's a candidate for russoid shill.
Just looked at his channel, latest video is how uaf failed in kherson and there's a pol on community where most of his audience think the russians will encircle and counter all the ukie troops that advanced
On second thought, I might give his shit another sample when Ukrainians take back Kupiansk and Izium. A sheer, absolute fricking vatnik cesspool, complete with thirsty vatnik fans. I can only imagine his comments section to be a fine rainbow coalition of thirdies and assorted tankie delights.
HistoryLegends. *Very* thinly-veiled vatnik cheerleader larping as "is of just honest analyze of war, comrade."
[...]
CovertCabal is less a shill and more an autist that had been well taken-in and fooled by years of bad/outright fabricated specifications and capabilities of Russian and chinkoid hardware and doctrine. The fricking sock puppet, Binkov I think, now there's a candidate for russoid shill.
>HistoryLegends
God, what a fricking disappointment, I actually enjoy his non-Ukraine PrepHole content, but the dumbass seems to think that the Russian Army of 2022 is still the Red Army of 1945-1991 and not a horde of cargo cultists wearing its rotting skin. That or he's just milking the Vatnik crowd for views, which is possibly even more despicable.
His Ukraine video is basically him ranting for an hour about how the war is the fault of the West because muh Globohomosexual and how Ukraine should just capitulate to the Gulaghomosexual instead.
Now, I actually agree with a lot of Peterson says most of the time but can we turn off the Culture War shit for like ten fricking seconds please? If the Russians had their way, they would exterminate every last one of us and wouldn't be a culture left to fight over.
[...]
Jordan Peterson during his biblical series time was amazing, post drug coma Jordan is just a caricature of his former self
https://i.imgur.com/t53e8gg.png
Even the top comments question him.
Man, I used to look up to him, even have the lobster book, JP was based back in the bible days.
Before anyone asks yes, my father was pretty absent in my upbringing.
One frick-up does not invalidate his previous good work. Good deeds do not erase bad deeds, nor do bad deeds erase good deeds. He's flawed like we all are and in this case it showed particularly clearly.
Don't go to him for geopolitical takes but his anti-wokism crusade remains relevant. The dismantling of the institutions of the West from within needs to be stopped or we're the next R*ssia.
I hate people like him >DUDE WEST SHOULD JUST GIVE IT TO RUSSIA WELL BECAUSE YOU KNOW?
frick these parasites if anything west should nuke russia and chink and get them down on their knees.
>Jordan Peterson
The way he smugly asserts shit while talking about things he very clearly has no fricking clue about makes me so fricking mad
I wish he'd just go back to being a statistic on drug use
Frying your brain with benzos and then going into a medical coma in a dodgy russian drug clinic while your moron daughter feeds you raw meat will destroy anybody, and Peterson was never that smart to begin with, he was just good at affecting a collegiate attitude and being a surrogate dad for fatherless NEETs.
2 years ago
Anonymous
[...]
[...] >his moronic daughter sent him to a russian hospital for his benzo addiction.
This is actually a good point, he probably feels beholden to Russia for helping him.
I had a coworker send me on a date with a friend of his girlfriend once. I kept shilling for the guy at work even when he fricked everything up horribly.
I never saw him as a father figure, given that I have a father and a wonderful family, but I liked him for being the closest thing to an intellectual of the past, even if he was overly emotional and I didn't agree with him on everything. He stood up for western civilization and classical values, which I something I could respect, and he did it in the face of overwhelming criticism. He was a breath of fresh air.
I just don't understand how he can fall for propaganda as blatant as what the degenerate Russian savages produce.
I guess his recent bullshit explains why he's plastered his walls with Soviet propaganda. He claimed it was to remind him of evil and to oppose authoritarianism, but I guess that was just a lie. I mean, there was no nazi art on his walls.
So much for his proselytizing Solzhenitsyn. Now he's supporting the spiritual successors of the genocidal regime he so vehemently criticized.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Peterson was never that smart to begin with, he was just good at affecting a collegiate attitude
wrong; he was a good prof who rebelled against the prevailing collegiate attitude which is "keep your head down and don't annoy the globohomos"
most of what he says in his chosen battlefield is sound. he just shouldn't ever have commented on military matters
His Ukraine video is basically him ranting for an hour about how the war is the fault of the West because muh Globohomosexual and how Ukraine should just capitulate to the Gulaghomosexual instead.
Now, I actually agree with a lot of Peterson says most of the time but can we turn off the Culture War shit for like ten fricking seconds please? If the Russians had their way, they would exterminate every last one of us and wouldn't be a culture left to fight over.
i think he went into coma after his moronic daughter sent him to a russian hospital for his benzo addiction.
>his moronic daughter sent him to a russian hospital for his benzo addiction.
This is actually a good point, he probably feels beholden to Russia for helping him.
I had a coworker send me on a date with a friend of his girlfriend once. I kept shilling for the guy at work even when he fricked everything up horribly.
>Jordan Peterson
The way he smugly asserts shit while talking about things he very clearly has no fricking clue about makes me so fricking mad
I wish he'd just go back to being a statistic on drug use
Jordan Peterson during his biblical series time was amazing, post drug coma Jordan is just a caricature of his former self
Peterson is a pretty decent social psychologist. Just like Chomsky is regarded as one of the best linguists alive.
But why the frick do these intellectuals think that they can have a robust opinion on geopolitics is beyond me. Chomsky has outright genocide denial point of views.
2 years ago
Anonymous
Same with Peter Zeihan. He keeps trying to pretend to be a military strategist on his Twitter account now.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Zeihan
Top kek - he literally thought as late as May that Russia would be able to march to the Polish border. A moron like me worked out in less than a week into the war once my depression cleared up that 200k troops wasn't going to take jack shit when Sarajevo held out while completely surrounded for several years.
Even the top comments question him.
Man, I used to look up to him, even have the lobster book, JP was based back in the bible days.
Before anyone asks yes, my father was pretty absent in my upbringing.
Every
single
fricking
pro-russian westerner
fricking frames a conflict that is at it's core a conflict of one nation, with it's own cultural identity, rejecting the historical, literal and secondarily cultural imperialism of it's bully of a neighbor, who is essentially telling them that they have no right to exist and do not exist
as
"This is the culture war's next step, and western civilization and the white race is at stake if we don't oppose the globalists!!!11!!"
Fricking shut the frick up
And the people who believe this shit should be labeled as having Low-IQ
This is just the next thing in a long line of things where "western civilization and the white race is at stake and being destroyed by the globalists;" It's all a fricking grift.
>Ukraine should just capitulate to the Gulaghomosexual instead
It's a moronic video full of non-sequiturs and lots of idiocy but he doesn't actually say or imply that. He apparently unironically bought into the MUH NOOOOKS narrative (including the tsunami nook, kek) and argues that Pootin is some kind of Godemperor who could make his nation commit thermonuclear suicide if he wanted to, completely ignoring the reality of R*ssian power structures and nuclear C&C.
He's simply talking out of his ass because he got too comfy more or less successfully speaking on things he has no expertise on.
Peterson says that NATO and Ukraine should be “having dialogue with Putin” instead of saber-rattling because he MIGHT use nukes, which as far as I’m concerned is a de facto demand for Ukrainian capitulation.
Any Russian threats of using nuclear weapons should be met with threats from NATO of equally brutal nuclear retaliation in kind. The only thing these people understand or respect is force.
The war is the fault of the West only in the context that they refused to properly protect Ukraine from Russian aggression and overall bullshittery.
NATO gave ample space for Russia to misbehave instead of properly dealing with them in order to appease them and Russia, like the sociopathic country that it is decided to exploit it to its maximum extent.
Fortunately, it seems that NATO is finally done with their bullshit, even Macron finally realized its useless to try to talk to Putin like civilized humans do.
I agree with the basic premise of the video In that the west is facing a choice where it must pick it's own madness. That' it's confronted with the fact that it can't have it's cake and eat it too.
I will also agree that this isn't one of his best video lectures.
[...]
[...]
[...]
One frick-up does not invalidate his previous good work. Good deeds do not erase bad deeds, nor do bad deeds erase good deeds. He's flawed like we all are and in this case it showed particularly clearly.
Don't go to him for geopolitical takes but his anti-wokism crusade remains relevant. The dismantling of the institutions of the West from within needs to be stopped or we're the next R*ssia.
I agree. Ukraine is not JP's fight. His is a much higher one.
>the dumbass seems to think that the Russian Army of 2022 is still the Red Army of 1945-1991 >or he's just milking the Vatnik crowd for views
Probably a little bit of both, really. I gave him a shot for Ukraine content as I'd subscribed to him way back, but his commitment to the notion of Russian competence somehow still existing wound up tainting his objectivity, especially once things developed well enough for hindsight to really abuse a lot of his past takes on things.
Military Summary is a propaganda shill from Russia who's literally paid to do it.
Military and Foreign Affairs Network is some LOLbertarian from America who tries to come off as impartial but plainly wants Russia to score a crushing victory to spite his domestic enemies.
And if you like laughing at literally who completely clueless amateurs who do it for free, the funniest one I found is Weeb Union.
Now get this. He's a second generation shitskin immigrant, islamic commie, squatting in Denmark, simping for Russia. And he looks literally like the swarthoid on this pic.
My GF is polish so I went to a pro-ukraine rally when this shitshow began.
The most level headed but also heartwarming person was the OrthoPriest. Great man.
Also my ex is Ukrainian and she warned me back then that the Russian Church SPECIFICALLY was a KGB and now FSB branch.
In fact, putting all the pieces together, the Patriarch of Constantinople blessed the separation of the Ukie church from the Russian one some time ago. The shitheads got mad.
>After this information was made public in early 2003, Ritter said that the timing of the leak was politically motivated in order to silence his opposition to the Bush administration's push toward war with Iraq.
Uh ya man, you're still a kid diddler.... Like, why would he say that as if it excuses anything? "O ya well you weren't actually supposed to know that so it doesn't matter"
Arch Vatnikhammer just released a video chuckling and doomposting about EU freezing and starving and how it was all a genius master plan by based Putin.
Sargoy and his homosexuals made three videos basically saying Two Weeks at the start of the war, then pretended it didn't happen until recently when they started crying about gas prices and how UK is a small cottage island who dindu nuffins and should not get involved.
Throw a stone into the whole pack of Gamergate alt-right Black folk and you'll hit a vatnik.
What went wrong with the alt right dudes Jesus Christ. I thought they supported individual freedom? Why are they sucking Russian wiener? I’d be disappointed if I didn’t have better things to do than be mad about morons I used to watch on YouTube when I was 13
None of these homosexuals get more than 200k views per video on YT and more than 10k on other le based free speech EVER GROWING YA HEAR ME platforms. That's pocket change ad revenue assuming they get any, nor they have any other jobs or shit like patreon because they got kicked out even back when I used to watch them. Sargoy even has a studio and employees. Who do you think pays their bills?
>UK is a small cottage island who dindu nuffins and should not get involved.
The invasion happened because the US and UK told Ukraine in 1994 "Get rid of the nukes, we'll protect you." This crisis 100% involves the US and UK by any metric.
I'm nationalist right but there's a reason that the /uhg/ and /chug/ war's been happening on /misc/, which as far as I can see is the first time there's been a serious narrative war there since the Lolbertarian vs Nazi wars of 2013. A majority of people in the nationalist right in the West are evidently just anti-current thing and have little plans about how to actually make themselves appealing to the population. East European nationalists by contrast were significantly more anti-Russia, because they didn't want to have their cultures and languages obliterated by le savior of the white race.
>The invasion happened because the US and UK told Ukraine in 1994 "Get rid of the nukes, we'll protect you." This crisis 100% involves the US and UK by any metric.
NTA and not disagreeing but I feel it should be mentioned that Russia also was on that agreement to protect Ukraine.
The involvement that those "nationalist right" people refer to though regularly is that the the moronic culture war bullshit that is more existent in US/UK politics (barely so on the fringe of right and left, I'd fricking argue) is a bigger factor in a conflict that has historical context going back a hundred years at least, if not more.
Basically I'm saying that the relating of this conflict to the moronic culture war and savior of the white race shit is a lot of pundit like sargoy attempting to partly coop something in order to grift more from moronic people.
Even if they kept the nukes they wouldn't have had the budget to maintain them.
Even if they HAD the budget, they wouldn't have the capability to launch them because the control centers are in Russia.
You're a fricking moron and should stop talking about things you don't understand.
... Yes? There was an actual debate in Ukraine at the time and the decision was solidified when the US and UK brokered the Budapest Memorandum, a decision that almost every Ukrainian thinks was a mistake - source: talked to them when I was over there.
> East European nationalists by contrast were significantly more anti-Russia, because they didn't want to have their cultures and languages obliterated by le savior of the white race.
Non-rus slav here. I'd be careful with this claim. A lot of our right and far-right saw Putin as a father figure that needs to be copy-pasted locally, along with the whole state apparatus. Same goes for leftists and ironically enough lolberts. Coincidentally every time audit happens to them for being homosexuals, it turns out they've been getting a lot of money from businessmen with connections to other businessmen further east.
>Coincidentally every time audit happens to them for being homosexuals, it turns out they've been getting a lot of money from businessmen with connections to other businessmen further east.
Funny that.
Same shit in Romania. Eastern Europe, with the exception of some moronic boomers, seems to generally be more right leaning as sort of a slingshot reaction to its communist past, that explains why it gives some westerners the impression that our right is somehow less contrarian than theirs.
But the more extremist morons are still heavily tied to Moscow. They think young people having dyed hair and riding electric scooters will obviously lead to societal collapse, so they think the solution is to yet again live under a repressive regime lead by borderline morons.
if you speak Taco language, check Canal Conocimiento Militar, biggest russian shill around and he is coping HARD
>jajajaja Kherson offensive failed according to russian cope maps >jajajaja the Ukranians might have advanced a lot in Kharkiv but its only a matter of time before glorious rasha attacks their supply lines >jajajaja yes Ukraine advanced in Kharkiv but its ok because that front was defended by third grade troops and theres nothing of value there so it doesnt count >jajajaja ok maybe russia didnt hit the supply lines, but they will surely fall before the russian counter attack THAT IS TOTALLY HAPPENING AMIGOS
and now, the biggest cope atleast in spanish pro-russian circles, is that winter will somehow save russia, either because they will make a great winter offensive or europe will freeze without russian gas or something
they have been reduced to begging for favorable weather, no different from natives performing a rain dance
>his videos have a very strong "The gloves have yet to come off!" tilt when talking about Russia
most generous take I can give him is that his entire schtick was reading Wikipedia TOEs and matching them up against each other, so he probably unironically buys into the "3,000 tanks ready, and 10,000 more well on the way" bullshit
If the Ukies win, I will print out and cum on any picture of RU colaborators getting killed and/or tortured. I will then mail those pictures to their families.
Screencap this.
Checked, keked and Based.
I was here when the coomer Terrorist made his promise to terrorize an entire country by cumming on the pics of dead soldiers.
What do we call you : The Coomer of Kyiv?
The memes are starting to break into the real world.
They say that we die twice. Once, when you stop breathing. And then again when the Coomer of /k/yiv cums on your photo and sends it to your grieving family.
This particular guy wasn't wonded in combat. He was born that way. He's a Ukrainian member of old Yanukovich party who served in their Rada before maidan, then betrayed Ukraine in favor of Russia. He's assumed to be a rich guy, so him being dressed in uniform and riding in an old-school wheelbarrow instead of a wheelchair is pure cosplay.
If they had any brains or initiative they'd be attempting a withdraw in good order out of Izyum right fricking now in order to preserve some fricking equipment from just being given to the UA.
>If they had any brains or initiative they'd be attempting a withdraw in good order out of Izyum right fricking now in order to preserve some fricking equipment from just being given to the UA.
Yeah, Izyum is gone at this point. I mean, not literally yet of course, but you can't hold something like that with primary supply cut and remaining lines under direct enemy fire control with roads/rivers zeroed in. It might well seem to them like "if only they just get some reinforcements!!" they can hold it but that isn't how logistics works it merely delays the inevitable while wasting more resources.
Fortunately vatniks are highly centralized and what little central brains they possessed have been getting rapidly blown out.
shit apparently some high command in Izyum already fled with the wounded
>If they had any brains or initiative they'd be attempting a withdraw in good order out of Izyum right fricking now in order to preserve some fricking equipment from just being given to the UA.
Yeah, Izyum is gone at this point. I mean, not literally yet of course, but you can't hold something like that with primary supply cut and remaining lines under direct enemy fire control with roads/rivers zeroed in. It might well seem to them like "if only they just get some reinforcements!!" they can hold it but that isn't how logistics works it merely delays the inevitable while wasting more resources.
Fortunately vatniks are highly centralized and what little central brains they possessed have been getting rapidly blown out.
it's sarcasm, Russians are of the opinion that the military is bungling it up, but incorrectly believe it's lower commanders being cowardly/treasonous and refusing hard positions
in reality, even if they did not flee, no reinforcements are coming - Russia's military is being crushed
Who was it again…I’m thinking it was the 2nd Tank Guards commander who fled with the wounded. Apparently leaving up to 22K worth of troops and equipment behind to lead from further in the rear.
The russians are even less well equipped, and their heavy units are stuck in contact, or ambushed moving trying to put out fires. Light Cav tactics my man
>light and motorized infantry?
We’ve seen T-72 tanks as well as M270 MLRS and PzH 2000 as part of this assault. These aren’t merely humvees giving the Russians issues. The first breakthrough was accomplished by 17 T-72 tanks smashing through the OMON units holding the line.
>was all the shilling and striking around kherson just a ploy?
No, UA is absolutely serious about both, Kherson is very important. They have multiple theaters of command though and are capable of multitasking and trying a few things at once at this point, so they're doing a one-two punch. Kherson did attract more vatnik forces, so western command saw an opening and went for it, and then it went really well, so now they're focused on exploiting that and establishing a solid new front with the river while cutting a critical depot.
But iof instead Russia had left another area weak they'd have done that instead. And by the same token if Russia now rushed back up to try to defend/take back this, well UA is ready to move aggressively on any further voids that appear. Russia has suffered enough logistical and command damage that they have become over extended without any defensive depth, so they can rob peter to pay paul but that doesn't help their overall strategic situation and once their initial positions collapse they are liable to get routed which is super wasteful.
>Kherson did attract more vatnik forces, so western command saw an opening and went for it, and then it went really well, so now they're focused on exploiting that and establishing a solid new front with the river while cutting a critical depot.
so reinforcing success instead of the typical military thinking of forcing a push where they want it?
Right, probably one of the biggest things NATO gave Ukraine since 2014 was training and thinking on how to be more decentralized and allow local commands straight down to troop level to have more initiative with central helping to coordinate and determine overall strats, but not trying to micromanage or insist dynamic unpredictable stuff goes their way. I mean obviously all the advanced weapons and such are super helpful too at this stage, but it's that difference in command structure and thinking that helped the UA punch way above their weight early on when all they were getting was some TOWs/Javs, and is radically different then the old soviet organization they used to be on and Russia still is.
So basically don't extrapolate retroactively too much, UA was doing it right by having plans for no matter what happened. They kept hitting logistics and poking here and there, helped of course by very advanced intel. They were looking for "something" not a single specific thing, so Russia could have reacted differently but still gotten fricked merely somewhere else because they'd been steadily getting more and more stretched. Those pokes weren't "feints" if vatniks had showed the right openings or collapsed at Kherson they'd have been perfectly happy with it. But they were trying to create a situation where inevitably SOMETHING had to give because Russia could just no longer be everywhere at once. And then they were ready to move, and not cautiously and hesitantly but move move move for tactical high value objectives.
It's still ballsy of course and stuff can still go wrong, full credit to the forces at the tip of the spear. But a lot went on leading up to this moment as well (which no doubt makes it sweeter for them).
MuttBlack person shills and fed mods already changed are already back to coping about successful evacuation mission after exposing how weak Donetsk and Russia are and how strong American terrorist have been for one day of getting sorrounded
>was all the shilling and striking around kherson just a ploy?
No, they are pushing into Kherson as well. However, because this was widely anticipated by everyone including Russia for the last month or more, Russia moved a shitload of troops and equipment south to defend Kherson, leaving other fronts ripe for collapse.
Ukraine is, quite wisely, taking these opportunities while they can. Unfortunately, that overshadows Kherson, and it's going to make things much harder on the troops fighting to take back Kherson.
Eventually Russia is going to have to mooooobilize if they don't want to just give up (or go nuclear), and at that point things will get REALLY HARD.
problem with mobilization is that the russian train system will effectively force all mobilized troops to pass through moscow. This happened in 1917. Problem with nukes aside from pissing off literally everybody is that not only does it invite NATO escalation but lots of powerful Muscovites have close family in Western cities. They may not be particularly interested in the prospect of being nuked, nor of nuking their own progeny.
I actually think Putin just needs to keep the war going without actually doing any fighting. He has total control of the state and can keep it on a wartime footing even if there is no actual war going on. Who will challenge him, so long as Muscovites get their three meals a day and internet?
>Eventually Russia is going to have to mooooobilize if they don't want to just give up (or go nuclear), and at that point things will get REALLY HARD.
They can't supply the troops they have right now anon. They're in a vastly worse supply and kit position then they were at the start too. This isn't pre-WW1, you can't just throw mass meat at a war and expect it to make the slightest difference vs mechanized infantry with HMGs and artillery, let alone hyper advanced satellite and drone surveillance support supplied by the most developed nations on the planet.
And they can "give up" without publicly "giving up" like other anon said. They can claim the special operation is ongoing but just, not have anything more than forces at the border. Turn it back into a frozen conflict. Would be a lot easier then people think, like, suddenly they don't even have to cover up death totals anymore because there wouldn't be any! Surely a sign of how much they're winning! If you look at how insulated from this average Russians are right now it's entirely believable, nobody can gainsay the Kremlin's story. Giving up while claiming they didn't would be a very straight forward move, far more then mobilization or nooks.
>And they can "give up" without publicly "giving up" like other anon said. They can claim the special operation is ongoing but just, not have anything more than forces at the border. Turn it back into a frozen conflict.
Cannot occur now because Ukraine does not want a frozen conflict. The separatists and Russia alike are now depleted, making rolling back to past borders or freezing current borders untenable, it only works if you have force to back it up.
>Cannot occur now because Ukraine does not want a frozen conflict. The separatists and Russia alike are now depleted, making rolling back to past borders or freezing current borders untenable, it only works if you have force to back it up.
Wrong. How can you be this fricking ignorant here and talk when you've apparently never heard of "Korea" before!? You know that we're literally still legally at war there? No peace treaty was ever signed. It's a frozen conflict, one of the most dangerous hardest borders on the planet but zero of each other's forces on the other side of it, both stick to their own while waving swords once in a while. Russia could easily use that model for this, and just fricking lie. They already are lying, constantly! >The separatists and Russia alike are now depleted
They can literally just claim they have separatists anyway! Just make it all up like they are right fricking now! >it only works if you have force to back it up.
lol? We can literally see in real time that's not the case anon. Russians accept being lied to either because they actually believe it or the culture of cynicism/nihilism the government has worked to cultivate. Kremlin can claim there is a war when there is no war and it'd literally be easier, an improvement.
Russia cannot choose to stop Ukraine from marching. The entente in North Korea is because North Korea has enough manpower and external support that South Korea does not WANT to invade North Korea.
If North Korea depleted its military or alienated China, South Korea would likely invade North Korea.
UKraine DOES want to retake its land, and Russia has no say in whether they do this.
Attempting to "freeze" the conflict, as they did in 2014, would have only worked while Russia's military was a deterrent force.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Russia cannot choose to stop Ukraine from marching
Of course they can. Ukraine INVADING Russia is very different from completely booting them from their own borders. Russia's inability to push far beyond its own borders is very different from internal defense on their own territory. And this is a case where the Nuke Card actually for real comes into play. Using nukes against someone else for aggression is an ultimate bad. But using nukes on your own territory against a literal land invading army? That's the core legitimate argument for them. Ukraine isn't going to do that. >UKraine DOES want to retake its land, and Russia has no say in whether they do this.
Yeah? Which is fine. And doesn't affect their ability to have a frozen conflict at all wtf? >Attempting to "freeze" the conflict, as they did in 2014, would have only worked while Russia's military was a deterrent force.
It's absolutely a deterrent force for the invasion of Russia still. Just like North and South Korea are 100% independent sovereign countries. Russia can retreat right back to their own borders, then just claim the battle is ongoing anyway and simply never declare it over, even though nothing is happening. That's the literal definition of a FROZEN conflict anon. If anything was happening it wouldn't be "frozen" now would it?
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Ukraine INVADING Russia is very different from completely booting them from their own borders. >Russia can retreat right back to their own borders
Completely booting Russia out from Ukraine's borders is a total failure for Putin and will not go over well with the Russian people. Russians would tolerate a break-even and "denazification" stalemate silently, but if Russia was pushed out of Ukraine entirely (or past Belgorod for funzies) then it would be a new level of humiliation.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Completely booting Russia out from Ukraine's borders is a total failure for Putin and will not go over well with the Russian people
Why not? What are they going to do about it vs their inaction already? Particularly if he simply makes the official line that Russia hasn't been booted at all but won and has now left it to local elements. And it's 15 years in prison if you say otherwise. And unlike right now, there is literally no one being killed anymore, no more money being pissed away there.
What's anyone going to do anon? You think THAT will be the time the russian population suddenly gains introspection? Or you think there will be a military coup, when the military was just further hollowed out and the security services made stronger? Oligarchs are under his boot already in favor of security services.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>If North Korea depleted its military or alienated China, South Korea would likely invade North Korea.
Doubtful. South Korea doesn't want the expense and trouble of assimilating millions of mindfricked Norks.
2 years ago
Anonymous
It might be more accurate to imagine South Korea's forces being depleted at the same time as the U.S. is distracted/isolationist. In that situation, North Korea would almost certainly invade South. Meanwhile, even if the U.S. was not a factor, if South Korea's military was still robust, the North would tolerate a stalemate.
Russia has no more men and no backup, out of Ukraine they go (whether they want to or not).
2 years ago
Anonymous
>expense and trouble
you kidding? it would skyrocket the Seoul economy
2 years ago
Anonymous
No, it really wouldn't. It would take a decade or more before the Norks were anything but a drain. Look at the reunification of Germany; the Osties didn't understand how to function in a capitalist economy, their skills were decades behind, and they were starting from financial zero. West Germany had to commit to feeding, educating, and training them before they could be economically beneficial.
Even today the eastern parts of Germany are relatively economically depressed.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>It would take a decade or more
but it would be a shot in the arm, eventually
it's like making the developing-nation-middle-income transition all over again. all those Norks to get consooming
>They can't supply the troops they have right now anon.
Good point. but as
>And they can "give up" without publicly "giving up" like other anon said. They can claim the special operation is ongoing but just, not have anything more than forces at the border. Turn it back into a frozen conflict.
Cannot occur now because Ukraine does not want a frozen conflict. The separatists and Russia alike are now depleted, making rolling back to past borders or freezing current borders untenable, it only works if you have force to back it up.
notes, >Turn it back into a frozen conflict.
the Ukrainians won't allow this and neither will anyone else. Ukraine has brought the Russian military to its knees; there's no "ok we'll let you rest for a decade while you prepare for invading us again."
>If you look at how insulated from this average Russians are right now
Ukraine has noted this, and has written that it intends to bring the war to the average Russian in 2023. See the paragraph below the image of the ATACMS in this article:
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html
I personally found the translation of this that I read to be chilling. Russia either gives up or it's going to get forcibly escalated by Ukraine next year.
>the Ukrainians won't allow this and neither will anyone else. Ukraine has brought the Russian military to its knees;
see
>Russia cannot choose to stop Ukraine from marching
Of course they can. Ukraine INVADING Russia is very different from completely booting them from their own borders. Russia's inability to push far beyond its own borders is very different from internal defense on their own territory. And this is a case where the Nuke Card actually for real comes into play. Using nukes against someone else for aggression is an ultimate bad. But using nukes on your own territory against a literal land invading army? That's the core legitimate argument for them. Ukraine isn't going to do that. >UKraine DOES want to retake its land, and Russia has no say in whether they do this.
Yeah? Which is fine. And doesn't affect their ability to have a frozen conflict at all wtf? >Attempting to "freeze" the conflict, as they did in 2014, would have only worked while Russia's military was a deterrent force.
It's absolutely a deterrent force for the invasion of Russia still. Just like North and South Korea are 100% independent sovereign countries. Russia can retreat right back to their own borders, then just claim the battle is ongoing anyway and simply never declare it over, even though nothing is happening. That's the literal definition of a FROZEN conflict anon. If anything was happening it wouldn't be "frozen" now would it?
. Neither Ukraine nor anybody else has the combination of capability and will to stop it from being a frozen conflict. A lot of you clearly have not internalized what that actually means despite me giving an example. A frozen conflict is literally just two countries officially in a continuing state of hostility and faceoffs, with maybe occasional pot shots at each other, while nothing happens. Both stay to their own borders. But they aren't at peace either, the borders are rock hard, mined, walled, covered in emplacements etc. That's it. Russia of course could do this, merely by leaving Ukraine entirely and consolidating in their own country. UA's ability to make headway in their own country isn't the same as the ability to counter-invade another.
UA might want to counter-invade even, but there the US and others really would say "hey hold up, don't pull a Hitler". Russia has land to give up temporarily, Ukraine has been seriously economically hurt. In fact >ok we'll let you rest for a decade while you prepare for invading us again
You've got this backwards anon: it's Russia that is now going to be more hurt by the passage of time, not Ukraine. It's Ukraine who will get stronger, faster, given the chance. They'll have time to fully integrate with Europe and NATO, to fully update their military, to restock, to rebuild their industrial base faster and better. They're far more industrious, are now fully united, working hard on corruption. If Russia went back to their own borders and did a frozen conflict tomorrow, in ten years I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine literally has a bigger economy and is utterly unassailable.
>Both stay to their own borders.
Average Russians view Crimea and Donbas as "their own borders" and view the continued existence of Ukraine/Belarus with skepticism. Ukraine is going to invade Crimea by mid 2023. That is not a "frozen conflict" in the minds of Russians, because Ukraine will not let it be one.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Average Russians view Crimea and Donbas as "their own borders" and view the continued existence of Ukraine/Belarus with skepticism. Ukraine is going to invade Crimea by mid 2023. That is not a "frozen conflict" in the minds of Russians
Russian minds "can be changed" by state decree. If the Kremlin declares it then it is so. I don't see anything significant at this point domestically that threatens them. The population has been cultured to "nothing really matters everything is shit" anyway.
CONTEXT anon: you're claiming that using nuclear fricking weapons is LESS risky then declaring victory and leaving while claiming the battle continues, with only internal dissent to suppress? Get fricking real. Monke isn't facing any particular threat from the masses unless maybe he actually tries to mobilize them. Or invites nuclear retaliation. If he goes for frozen conflict instead life will literally get better for the average Russian.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>you're claiming that using nuclear fricking weapons is LESS risky
I didn't see anyplace where he claimed that. He's pointing out, correctly, that the Ukrainians aren't going to tolerate leaving things frozen after having lost 21% of their territory. They did that for eight years after losing 7% in 2014 and look where that got them.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>I didn't see anyplace where he claimed that.
Follow the thread back up to the beginning anon and
>was all the shilling and striking around kherson just a ploy?
No, they are pushing into Kherson as well. However, because this was widely anticipated by everyone including Russia for the last month or more, Russia moved a shitload of troops and equipment south to defend Kherson, leaving other fronts ripe for collapse.
Ukraine is, quite wisely, taking these opportunities while they can. Unfortunately, that overshadows Kherson, and it's going to make things much harder on the troops fighting to take back Kherson.
Eventually Russia is going to have to mooooobilize if they don't want to just give up (or go nuclear), and at that point things will get REALLY HARD.
. What I was responding too was >Eventually Russia is going to have to mooooobilize if they don't want to just give up (or go nuclear)
Mobilization or nuclear are absolutely not the only options here, by any means. And both are vastly riskier then merely freezing it combined with more propaganda.
>He's pointing out, correctly, that the Ukrainians aren't going to tolerate leaving things frozen after having lost 21% of their territory.
They don't have a choice. They can't stage an effective invasion and conquest of Russia and force a total surrender that removes the current Kremlin regime alone, and the West isn't going to support that either. If Russia wants to negotiate a peace legitimately in exchange for reparations or something maybe Ukraine would consider it, but otherwise they'll have to be satisfied with gaining 100% of Ukraine (including Crimea) back and then rebuilding and buffing up to make it impossible to ever pull this shit again.
>Neither Ukraine nor anybody else has the combination of capability and will to stop it from being a frozen conflict.
That's the dumbest thing I've seen written. What stops Ukraine from just continuing to shell occupied territory? If Russia freezes, Ukraine can keep manufacturing shells and keep on bombing. Thus, the conflict won't be "frozen" and eventually Russia will be forced to unfreeze as well.
The reason the Norks and Worst Koreans aren't constantly shooting it out is because both sides AGREED to stop. There isn't a formal written treaty, but neither side wants to continue. If EITHER ONE said "frick it, I'm not putting up with this any more", the conflict would go hot again.
>If Russia went back to their own borders and did a frozen conflict tomorrow, in ten years I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine literally has a bigger economy and is utterly unassailable.
Russia can go back to its USSR-tier command economy, and just demand that everyone churn out artillery shells. They have oil, gas, population, and territory. Sure, they won't have iPhones or Chryslers, but they can churn out steel and explosives all that they want.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>That's the dumbest thing I've seen written
No, you're just inventing some make believe definition of frozen conflict to knock down anon. >The reason the Norks and Worst Koreans aren't constantly shooting it out is because both sides AGREED to stop. There isn't a formal written treaty, but neither side wants to continue. If EITHER ONE said "frick it, I'm not putting up with this any more", the conflict would go hot again.
DUH? That's why it's still a CONFLICT, just FROZEN. What the frick? And you think Ukraine wouldn't "agree" to halt at Russia's borders but rather try to counter-invade? >Russia can go back to its USSR-tier command economy, and just demand that everyone churn out artillery shells. They have oil, gas, population, and territory. Sure, they won't have iPhones or Chryslers, but they can churn out steel and explosives all that they want.
Which would mean jack fricking shit as we've literally seen vs an actual fully modernized military fighting a defensive war. Hell in 10 years Ukraine could literally be a NATO and EU member state if things went well. It's not about "iPhones or Chryslers" it's about "high performance aircraft" and "high precision ranged weapons" etc. And Ukraine can invest in serious emplacements too, which absolutely can work very well if they can't be bypassed or have support cut off.
Also, Russia's oil, gas, and population are all going to be worth a lot less in 10 years. Their demographics are utterly fricked. They themselves with this conflict have wrecked their biggest gas customer, and it's very non-trivial to redirect gas elsewhere. They could easily spend a decade just trying to match western pipeline capacity to go to China instead. Oil is somewhat more insulated, but the switch to BEVs is starting to accelerate hard at this point. Time is not on their side on that one either.
Ukraine would be perfectly well served by booting Russia back to their own borders and freezing it even if officially they stay at war.
Only in this case it is possible to discuss the influence on the real center of gravity of the Russian Federation in this war. It lies in its "remote" - in the understanding of most Russians - character. Thanks to this distance, the citizens of the Russian Federation do not so painfully perceive losses, failures, and most importantly - the cost of this war in all its meanings. A convincing example of the correctness of this approach in the current year is the successful efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to physically transfer hostilities to the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. We are talking about a series of successful missile strikes on the enemy's Crimean air bases, first of all, on the Saka airfield [4] . The task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 2023 is to make these feelings sharper, more natural and quite tangible for the Russians and in other occupied territories, despite the significant distance from the goals.
Frick me.
Imagine explaining to someone back in February 24 that after 6 months of war the ukies plan is basically "take back Crimea and make them feel the pain"
>"Ukrainian messages talk of panic and heavy losses at Kupyansk and a belief they've fallen into an ambush on a strategic scale. Demanding to know where aviation and artillery support is"
how is that not fan fiction again? they're plugged into Ukrainian comms, I take it? if so, then surely they can provide any evidence to back up these radical statements that seem to contradict literally everything else we're seeing coming out of that region
Ohh I misinterpreted your first reply, yes I agree with you, it seems like they just swapped "Ukraine" and "Russia" in whatever battlefield assessment they read on TG
They don't even bantz any more. They just keep shrieking about troons any time anyone posts. I'd say over half the posts are trolling them. I gave up, it was just too sad trombone noises to bother any more.
1st Guards Tank Army is fricked. That's about 22k men fricking gone with their equipment. That would be a huge loss for the Russians in men and equipment they can't afford to replace.
Depends how they fall
If Russians manage to evac 80-90% of their soldiers then it's a small tactical victory for Ukraine and perhaps the beginning of a strategic victory
If Ukies manage to actually encircle them then the north eastern front will be pretty much fricked
1st Guards Tank Army is fricked. That's about 22k men fricking gone with their equipment. That would be a huge loss for the Russians in men and equipment they can't afford to replace.
Has there been any other conflict where one side has abandoned so much useful and useable material to the enemy? As in, Ukraine uses so much Russian equipment that they can directly use all types of ammo, vehicles and equipment straight off the battlefield.
They might already be cut off. Their options for retreat are either through the forest or another pontoon adventure. Either way, casualties will be high and most heavy equipment will need to be abandoned.
Kupiansk IS the escape route though. Sure Izyum isn’t completely surrounded, but Kupiansk is the only route that has the infrastructure necessary to efficiently move all of the heavy equipment. Any other route taken would require either abandoning things that can’t be properly replaced or try to take it all at a glacial pace that would probably be rip for artillery/airstrike/ambush/etc.
Tbh it remains to be seen if Ukraine can actually hold onto their gains, it’ll depend on how they withstand the inevitable countattack. Even so, all this definitely shows that Russia is having fairly serious problems maintaining a frontline over the entire country. They push back here and a gap opens up somewhere else.
>Kupiansk IS the escape route though
this >how they withstand the inevitable countattack.
thats another funny thing, the only sensible route (bar an Izyum breakout) for a counterattack is head on through Kupiansk
Depends how they fall
If Russians manage to evac 80-90% of their soldiers then it's a small tactical victory for Ukraine and perhaps the beginning of a strategic victory
If Ukies manage to actually encircle them then the north eastern front will be pretty much fricked
>If Russians manage to evac 80-90% of their soldiers then it's a small tactical victory for Ukraine and perhaps the beginning of a strategic victory
Nah anon. Kupyansk is super important for logistics. If that and Izyum fall Russia's entire front there is pretty fricked. Highly, highly defensible too. And at this point it's too late to evac well while also preserving their heavy equipment, abandoning all that is more losses they cannot replenish.
Yeah saving man power would be better than nothing but this is a bad blow and if the UA consolidates a significant strategic loss. And that's ignoring soft factors, huge morale boost for Ukraine AND a significant geopolitics win to show Western donors which ensures aid keeps coming and that the West won't push for any sort of early peace negotiations where Ukraine gives anything up. All very important goals. Victory papers over a lot, Europe will definitely suffer somewhat this winter, not the "freezing in their homes" moronic bullshit vatBlack folk spew out since they cannot envision functioning governments, but there will definitely be some economic pain particularly in Germany as they work to wean themselves of Russian gas in a hurry. And that could in theory promote political pushback.
But people are a lot more willing to engage in solidarity if they can see it's actually working and worth it and they think they'll win in the end. Ukraine making some big visible breakthroughs before winter is therefore an even bigger deal. I'm sure they've considered that, and of course the risk of over extending by being too aggressive and desperate to show something. But if they pull it off then yeah that could tip the scales in important ways.
Also, if they (the Russians) do decide that manpower > equipment and get the boots out without their gear then all they do is replenish Ukrainian war supplies.
Ukrainians have more men than equipment (see: waiting lists for volunteers) so every single tank, howitzer, IFV or APC they capture is worth its weight in gold.
Furthermore, hypothetically speaking, if their offensives in the North and South do work. They will then hold two extremely defensive positions that will free up lots of manpower, especially in the South where hundreds of km's of frontage will be reduced to zero because water obstacle with no bridges. They can then use that manpower to develop local advantages in other areas to do more offensives which in turn can lead to a snowballing effect. >shaping the front
>Furthermore, hypothetically speaking, if their offensives in the North and South do work. They will then hold two extremely defensive positions that will free up lots of manpower, especially in the South where hundreds of km's of frontage will be reduced to zero because water obstacle with no bridges. They can then use that manpower to develop local advantages in other areas to do more offensives which in turn can lead to a snowballing effect.
Good point, and this is the logic of a military route. Gains pile up for more gains, because forces start to get concentrated in useful ways and geography can get taken advantage of to protect flanks with less or no war power devoted to it. UA is going into their own territory so unlike Russia they also don't face the same risk of partisans. In fact in another delicious bit of irony Russia themselves have helped ensure that by using separatists and cannon fodder and force drafting much of the male population that could evade it and would otherwise potentially be more trouble, they've made the locals hate them AND cleared the way for the UA on all fronts! Not that UA doesn't still have to be very careful about their own supply lines and accidentally falling into tactical inferiority despite strategic superiority, history shows instances where that can lead to bad losses. And UA doesn't have much experience with this even if they're learning fast.
But even there having NATO intelligence and advisors with them is a huge help in avoiding slip ups, as is the Russian army's continued utterly outdated command structure. They simply can't react very well at the tactical level even if opportunity presents itself because they don't have the decentralized initiative and authorization. So while UA undoubtedly will make mistakes I honestly doubt Russ army is even capable of capitalizing on them fast enough, even ignoring that moving the front forward moves HIMARS etc forward too and they keep losing commanders.
Huge loss of equipment and soldiers if Russians don't evacuate
Logistics around the northeastern front completely fricked
End of any chance of encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Donbass
Ukrainians can now use kupyansk as base to launch offensives in Luhansk
Tl;Dr northeastern front gets fricked
1st Guards Tank Army is fricked. That's about 22k men fricking gone with their equipment. That would be a huge loss for the Russians in men and equipment they can't afford to replace.
Kupyansk Bridge allegedly got blown up
https://i.imgur.com/QjSiwJD.jpg
Just saw on /chug/ that the critical bridge got destroyed, too. It's not even worth trolling them at this point, they're so suicidally demoralized that they can't even bantz.
If Amerimutt terrorists zergrush it then it's super important.
If Donetsk and Luhanks and Russian allied forces continue to control it its not important.
>bruh the only thing backing around here, are my swollen, backed up nuts. I can't wait to bust a fat one on the lifeless face of some pro-Ru rat humanoid and send it to his loving family.
If only I could be so grossly based.
Currently Russia is having a massive twitter offensive, about every bot they have fires messages about their big reinforcements arriving at Kupyansk and Ukraine taking massive losses in their failed counter offensive...
If the Ukies win, I will print out and cum on any picture of RU colaborators getting killed and/or tortured. I will then mail those pictures to their families.
Screencap this.
For when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you
What did we learn today? Losing some of your best forces and machines early in the war will have repercussions, sustained numbers =/= sustained quality, untrained and unmotivated forces will collapse and a small number of veterans cannot carry the burden themselves.
If the Ukies win, I will print out and cum on any picture of RU colaborators getting killed and/or tortured. I will then mail those pictures to their families.
Screencap this.
I've already informed The Hague that they have a new warcrime they should write a ban against. And also to shove it up their ass because as far as I'm concerned when it's Russians the list of warcrimes is an achievement list.
Russia moved the majority of their troops south to head off the hyped up Kherson offensive. They left behind homosexual riot police and DNR conscripts to guard the front near Kharkiv, Ukraine has broken through the front and found no resistance in the rear areas. Now Russia's main supply line to Izyum is cut.
That can still escape north, but it’s a really bad option, they will have to ditch a lot of equipment. Bigger problem for them is the reinforcements at svatove have to detour to help out now
So did the Ukrainians completely break their supply lines or did the Russians just not bother to build secondary defensive lines?
It seems like they didn't even plan for the possibility of Ukraine breaking through and now that the butthole is wide open they just keep on giving
Ok, you’re directed by Putin to unfrick this shit.
He will allow you to cede territory to Ukraine for more favourable defensive positions, he doesn’t want a repeat of Kyiv.
What do you do? Where do you reinforce your troops to prevent a complete rout?
>Ok, you’re directed by Putin to unfrick this shit.
I immediately defect to the West and enjoy the billions of dollars I've stolen and are now safe in a Sw*ss bank account.
Not much you can do, Ukranians have been working on setting victory conditions for months now. The two "offensives" are just the little paragraph that concludes a long essay.
What is going to happen is going to happen, all you can do is try to mitigate as much damage as possible.
what they always should have done, take Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk, Toshivka, and form a line up to Duvanka. To make the cities more defensible, a fluid deployment trying to take everything East of Bakhmutka river (to Zarichne) is appropriate, but no hard combat or heavy armor.
Stop there, regroup, try again in 8 years.
As far as the South, literally unsustainable. Taking everything except Kherson was viable, they should have held Nova Kakhova to Vasylivka and turned Oleshky into a fortified position. Depopulate the western delta, because it is going to be nonstop partisan and guerilla warfare if held.
After Vasylivka, the new line should be Tokmak-Chernihivka-Rozivka-Volnovakha-Dokuchaevsk with a mobile line. This is a sustainable position.
Everything around Donetsk is a pointless bloodbath but Russia is not in the pilot seat. Donetsk partisans would be acting like spergs there even though Russia has old them not to. The best target would have been Avdiivka as the sole goal for those irregulars.
>1000 dead American terrorist later >MuttBlack folk winning so much they need to spam fake videos and twitter.gov cope about "likely future potential successess"
Just saw on /chug/ that the critical bridge got destroyed, too. It's not even worth trolling them at this point, they're so suicidally demoralized that they can't even bantz.
>BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
Not a lot of wondering, they're gonna blow the Kerch Strait Bridge apart. Some of the comments from the UA command structure make me think it's just a few weeks away.
If you want to bet on timing, there are a couple of bets up on Betmoose about it.
>BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
Good. Now that they can't run away, the Russians will have to fight and win.
>BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK >BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
The next mental barrier that will have to be overcome in western (and Ukrainian) consciousness is the idea that territories occupied by Russia in 2014 can't be won back. If the current offensive succeeds, the next or the one after that could perhaps target Donetsk or Luhansk. If ukies take one of those, it will be a psychological blow unliked any before.
I heard from one of Ukrainian politicians, that a blow to Donetsk was discussed back in April, as part of a supposed operation to break the encirclement of Mariupol, but it was ultimately decided to be too risky of a maneuver, since if the attack failed, the defensive line in Donbass would collapse.
Problem is that for every visible victory like that you're almost forcing Putin to escalate. And the only thing he has left is nukes. Initially it might be a nuke test on Russian soil just to send a message. This isn't some side conflict like Afghanistan where ultimately the Russians can claim some fabricated victory and move on. Putin has invested way too much political capital into this. He quite literally can't afford to lose this war
Putin got into power because the last guy got thrown out cuz Chechnya. Just saying, things get bad enough for the Russians maybe the Oligarchs choose a new guy.
He's keeping the oligarchs well fed and in line. No evidence that the security apparatus or military leadership is abandoning him. I believe he still controls every facet of policy
If there's a reasonable suspicion that Putin will resort to nuclear arms, the US would use all their weight to pressure Zelensky into stopping the war. There is no strategic threat to the US here which means politically a nuclear conflict is a complete non-starter
There is a strategic threat of the world and the human civilization itself being held hostage by a maniac with a bomb. At this point, the objective would be not to defeat Russia in Ukraine, but to de-nuclearize Russia, in the interest of all humanity. Even Chinese would hop on board with it, since they wouldn't want a madman with nukes to exist, either.
However, I still believe that no nukes will be used in any case, as long as NATO is not involved directly, and perhaps even then.
>The United Fricking States >Giving into Nuclear pressure
You do realize that if the US backed down in that case, it's completely over for the West, right? If Putin threatened nukes and the US backed down, Putin would just continuously threaten nukes and get everything he wants without any stopping them.
It's obvious that Russia is in no state to continue threats to other countries. This isn't a slippery slope, at least in a span of a couple decades. Democracies don't tend to think that long ahead. If this war can be ended relatively quickly with Ukraine fighting the Russians to a heroic draw, this is a narrative that the West can run with.
2 years ago
Anonymous
Russia is in no state to threaten other countries with invasion but they still have nuclear fricking bombs, and they have been CONTINUOUSLY threatening to use them for the last few months. There should never be a moment where any nation gives in to such threats.
2 years ago
Anonymous
I completely agree with you in a strategic sense but in politics very often up is down. Look at Germany's moronic energy policy
That's Russky cope you're swallowing. Whats the point of nukes, strategically? If you concede to someone threatening their use because X is not worth MAD, what else in the world is not worth MAD, either, and is now fair game?
If Russian nukes fly for the sake of international coercion, Russia is getting glassed, simple as
>If there's a reasonable suspicion that Putin will resort to nuclear arms, the US would use all their weight to pressure Zelensky into stopping the war
Pure vatBlack person wishful cope. >There is no strategic threat to the US here which means politically a nuclear conflict is a complete non-starter
You literally identified the strategic threat you fricking moron: allowing nuclear weapons to be used by nuclear powers to threaten direct wars of aggression and conquest. That's a HUGE strategic threat, it completely undermines the world. It ALSO completely undermines non-proliferation, because if it's allowed now everyone HAS to have nukes of their own, no question. If you don't, you're directly at risk from those who do.
That's just utterly unacceptable vs defensive possession. American can never allow it. And the politics of forcing Ukraine to SURRENDER to Russia (that's what your cute little "stopping the war" actually means), while they are winning (!!!), over monke's IM GUNNA NOOOKKKEE would destroy Biden plenty well by themselves.
So yeah, they'll be "diplomatic" about it but they'll simply ignore it. And then if Russia actually uses nukes they'll "be forced to respond". You're also an obvious vatnik moron because you're assuming Ukraine is some Western puppet because that's how you view relationships, but it's not. If Russia nukes them why would they submit to "pressure" to do anything but fight tooth and nail, to immediately attack Russian cities across the border? Why hold back at all? Why not use their nuclear waste to make dirty bombs and use those? UA actually has been trying to follow the rules overall, unlike Russia. They really DO have "gloves they could take off".
The rest of the world cannot allow Russia, or anyone else, to win just by threatening to go nuclear.
It's one thing to let Kim Jong Un keep his existing enslaved population, quite another to let him invade South Korea just because he threatens to nuke Seoul if he doesn't get his way.
Same thing with Putin. If you let him take Ukraine because otherwise he'll start lobbing nukes, then he can take Poland, Germany, and Finland too.
You don't understand the nuclear taboo and why it exists. No, I repeat, no state actor wants to live in a world where using nukes is actually on the able outside of defending the homeland. If Putinist R*ssia is actually moronic enough to do it anyway they sign their doom. Even if they "just" use a single tactical one, the consequences would be catastrophic for them. And that's assuming there would be no retaliation in kind. They would get isolated more than even Iran and North Korea, dropped by even Ch*na and Ind*a. New sanctions would be drawn up that would make the current ones look like a joke. Kid-sniffer Biden would no longer be able to veto R*ssia being designated a state sponsor of terrorism.
The current war fricked R*ssia for a decade at least, even if Pootin got couped and sanctions reversed. If they go nuclear they'll frick themselves for the rest of the next half-century at a minimum.
Have you considered that this forces the west to escalate, as well? So far they have been dumb but not outright irrational. Putin and Lavrov can't enjoy blow and hookers freely if Moscow is glassed
Putin is in a much more precarious position than any western leaders. It's reasonable to assume he will become desperate first. As to glassing Moscow, my point is it will be stopped before that. If he shows willingness to use nukes the war has to end immediately, politically speaking
>If he shows willingness to use nukes the war has to end immediately
You can frick right off. The US doesn't get to have anything it wants by flashing nuclear penis, and neither will Russia.
>Problem is that for every visible victory like that you're almost forcing Putin to escalate.
"almost" lol. It's not forcing Putin to do jack shit. And he won't, because it'd be 100% suicide. >And the only thing he has left is nukes.
No, he also has left a million propaganda options where he abandons Ukraine and paints it as some kind of partial victory over HATO contrary to your assertion this can't be done. Of course it can be done. If he stops this shit he'll be able to spend less on the army and more on pacifying important groups of the pop. He'll paper the whole thing over. And who is going to stage a coup? The military was just further wrecked! He has a loyal praetorian guard. He has the oligarchs either under control or bound to go down with him. NATO isn't actually going to just invade Russia. If he retreats back world will be done with him. That's WAY better odds then >Initially it might be a nuke test on Russian soil just to send a message. This isn't some side conflict like Afghanistan where ultimately the Russians can claim some fabricated victory and move on. Putin has invested way too much political capital into this. He quite literally can't afford to lose this war
If he uses nukes he's done, and that's IF they work. Given how rotted out Russian military and tech is, it's very possible he uses nukes, and then they DON'T work. Or like, 1/4 work. And NOW they're well and truly fricked, because their big deterrent is fully exposed as well, AND they're shown as mad enough to try using it anyway. At that point it becomes legitimate to contemplate a US nuclear first strike.
Putin and co are survivalists. They can try to go nork or something. China won't want to see them completely collapse either. Nuking would be true suicide.
>Given how rotted out Russian military and tech is, it's very possible he uses nukes, and then they DON'T work. Or like, 1/4 work. And NOW they're well and truly fricked, because their big deterrent is fully exposed as well,
Even 1/4 of the Russian nuclear arsenal working is a significant deterrent. Even 1/10th is plenty.
I don't think anyone understands why the frick Russia made so goddamn many nuclear weapons. Unless there's an invasion by space aliens, there's no point in having an arsenal that large.
trips of moronation >Even 1/4 of the Russian nuclear arsenal working is a significant deterrent. Even 1/10th is plenty.
No it isn't. They're down to like 1500 officially ("warheads in storage" are worthless, none of them can be made useful in time for a second strike). A first strike will take out a huge percentage of those, that's precisely why countries want so many. If 1/4 work (let alone 1/10) they're down to 375. 1st strike takes out another 75-90%. Now you're down to as little as ~40 working ones. Are ALL of them going at America? If not cut that further, but even if so proceed. The US does have BMD at this point, not enough for a huge saturation attack absolutely, but we're no longer talking a huge saturation attack. Can it deal with dozens? And will Russia have programmed ALL of the warheads for counter-value? That'd be unlikely, the default includes a ton that are counter force, ie., aimed at American military infrastructure including bases and our own ICBMs. But lots of THAT is very, very purposefully placed in the middle of nowhere. Part of the whole point of which is precisely to "absorb" inbound nukes far away from populations.
There is now a chance literally zero make it through to anything very important. >I don't think anyone understands why the frick Russia made so goddamn many nuclear weapons. Unless there's an invasion by space aliens, there's no point in having an arsenal that large.
It's clearly you who don't understand the math here, what the modern forces look like, or why only having a fraction work is a big threat. You're exactly right they have a lot for a reason. But that reason isn't "well, maybe only 10% work before we even launch" it's to ensure enough get through even after lots are wiped. But if you START by cutting by a factor of 4-10? Buh-buy.
You're looking at it from the wrong direction. No one in power wants to lose NYC. I personally wouldn't mind, but Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer wouldn't risk it.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>You're looking at it from the wrong direction. No one in power wants to lose NYC. I personally wouldn't mind, but Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer wouldn't risk it.
Only Biden matters here, right or wrong he doesn't need any further permission to use our nuclear arsenal whenever he wants. But all of them would anyway if they think they won't lose NYC and that also there is a risk the US will get nuked and/or their careers destroyed anyway. They're capable of long term thinking as is our own military. If Russia is willing to use nukes offensively for conquest the domino effects are obvious if they get away with it. And if it turns out they show a major weakness in doing so proving objectively that only a fraction works, then the right decision to defend NYC is to act immediately. With the state of the Russian military I guarantee you the US probably knows exactly where 97% of Russian active nukes are located and are actively tracking and tailing most if not all of their functioning boomers. If the JCS can tell Biden with assurance that there is a limited window before Russia disperses where they can eliminate nearly everything and BMD + Russian failures can mop up the rest, and Russia is already engage in nuclear escalation? Sure we don't know exactly what Biden would decide, but that works both ways.
And there are other escalators too. Eastern Europe will demand military response out of self preservation. Now Russia nukes them too, etc etc.
2 years ago
Anonymous
>Only Biden matters here, right or wrong he doesn't need any further permission to use our nuclear arsenal whenever he wants.
Biden has pudding for brains and everyone knows it. He may be legally required to be the figurehead who launches the nukes, but he's not the one making the decisions.
He can't even read a TelePromTer without fricking it up.
2 years ago
Anonymous
CIA told the Russians through various contacts and channels that If Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, their nuclear capabilities would be rendered useless by such devastating and humiliating missile spam that the US wouldn’t need to escalate to the nuclear option.
2 years ago
Anonymous
I actually believe it now
2 years ago
Anonymous
>CIA told the Russians through various contacts and channels that If Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, their nuclear capabilities would be rendered useless by such devastating and humiliating missile spam that the US wouldn’t need to escalate to the nuclear option.
If the US could actually eliminate Russia's nukes conventionally then this is even easier. I don't think the US actually has that capability yet, while we experimented with HGVs and the like in the 60s/70s I'm pretty sure all our ICBMs/SLBMs are conventional and air breather hypersonics aren't ready yet. I don't think conventional cruise missiles, or new stealth bombers capable of getting where they need to go, would work either. And I don't think CIA would actually do any such reveal.
But if the capability is there then 100% it'd be immediately used in that case, there is no reason to hold back at all then if it's not even nuclear. And then if Russia counters with nuclear launch and any make it and work, well THEN it's still inviting a counter strike.
Sadly it's more likely gonna be another >Look! This dead civilian is surrounded by russian military gear! >Clearly they were shot for accepting russian aid!
Though there is already some screaching about a collaborationist mayor being arrested.
The Izyum direction was the main avenue of attack, then they were turned over into the severodonetsk and lysychansk front before the line stagnated. With heavy casualties along all these steps and the Kherson pivot it makes sense that it ended up so depopulated
electronic countermeasures go from "jam" to "disable"
In the 80's some clown stole the Navy's encryption codes for the Sparrow and the Phoenix, and until new ROMs were made and distributed through the fleet, the Navy was afraid that if they shot one of those at anyone they would just drop from the sky by ECM.
I think they're starting to lose their appetite. After all, it's not like R*ssia is likely to ever deploy these again. It's really just more of a curiosity now, reverse-engineering it now doesn't really get them anything anymore.
except this time the US is not supporting the Soviet army and as it turns out it is not capable of advancing too far from its borders on its own capabilities
Russians are not Soviets and do not have the skill, morale, or raw manpower to die 2-for-1 and retake a strategically difficult position. Pic related is closer to the current situation from a force deployment standpoint.
>muh nukes
threatening nukes over an aggressive conflict when the existence of your state is not in danger (the russian nuclear doctrine) would alienate russia not just from the west but also from india and china
nobody is interested in nuclear escalation because it affects everyone
so, wait, what the frick happened?
Troops riding the BVM got sprayed down with fire, with the tankers being fricking oblivious, then driving into a tree trying to take a corner because they can fricking see where they're going, injuring whoever was left hanging on for dear life?
so, wait, what the frick happened?
Troops riding the BVM got sprayed down with fire, with the tankers being fricking oblivious, then driving into a tree trying to take a corner because they can fricking see where they're going, injuring whoever was left hanging on for dear life?
>injuring whoever was left
if they took a fricking tree to the face they're not just "injured"
>if they took a fricking tree to the face they're not just "injured"
I was being generous, because they probably already have been sprayed down by AR or MG fire before then; getting impaled by a branch wouldn't be pleasant either though
possibly falls under "cruel and unusual" punishment, but a rather low-tier one, considering >I was made to eat a Ritz cracker piled with hot sauce back in junior high
I just want to say I love you anons. The level of shitposting and stuff coming out of this war is mind blowing. I never expected this level of entertainment to happen back in February.
it also includes copious cope stripes
remember the days of the cope squares which covered half of Ukraine? kek
Ah yes. “We yeeted a cruise missile into a field 50km away so this territory is contested”
The anus is gapping
Thh gag reflex is building.
The air fryer is warming
The eyebrow has been singed off
the troony is dilating
The dick is shitting.
kek saved
A few weeks from now the macro frontlines-over-time videos will start to emerge. If only to emphasise the pace of Russian progress the last few months.
>if I paint a thin corridor of cope stripes to Balalaika, it means we haven't lost it!
>no need to panic
Very good Ukraine
HOWEVER
>south pincer cut off
>south pincer going right through a marsh
Actually, I would love to see this happen.
Can you imagine watching them try to get through that swamp?
Frick it would be insane to watch.
>4 river crossings
Kek
>>4 river crossings
DO YOU WANT A TOTAL PONTOON?!
Za Caoldronu...
the Kiev-Kharkiv omega-feint was in the plan all along...
Putin sama... I kneel...
>We wanted st Petersburg to become an independent state anyway, it never truly understood the Russian vision.
>Vatnik
>Geography
Choose one
People forget Ukraine has the advantage of top tier NATO intelligence. Russia's strength in this war has been in massive numbers, not once has it been craftiness. You'd have to be on krokodil to think Russia has something up their sleve that isn't known already. In the meanwhile, if they lose their numbers advantage by wasting units, they'll be properly fricked.
Also those conscripted DPR/LNR troops will pull this off easy
would probably be 300% more effective than the Russhits are rn
Of course we will give our Latvian allies F-35, Minutemen IV and SR-72 to help accomplish their great peacekeeping endeavor against the Russian Terrorist state.
Is this Latvian humor? Also what's with the a1's
Latvians don't use Cyrillic. It's clearly from a Russian show of some kind. Could be comedy, news, anything really.
The famous Savyntsi feint will be known for decades.
How can Ukraine compete with such tactical genius? It's just not fair.
This maneuver will be known in military parlance as the "Klink Dipsy Doodle!"
Checkm8 rooski
>Two pontooning
Aaaaaaaa!!!
Caludron is back on the menu
>t: when Rybar paints ukrainian victories, he's cool.
>when he doesn't, he's an FSB project/vatBlack person
Mhm.
You can do the math anon
He is a vatBlack person. Thus, them reporting Ukrainian victories is damning. I know logic isn't vatBlack folk' strong suit, but try to keep up.
have a nice day you fricking autist, we're not saying he's cool, we're saying that the russoid "army" is so shit that even your homosexual propagandists have to admit they're shit. they can't even spin it any other way. i fricked your mother's throat.
>he has a clear R*ssian bias
>DESPITE that EVEN HE admits to massive R*ssian losses
Is that actually too hard to grasp for you?
we're reaching wwII levels of breakout now
>we're reaching wwII levels of breakout now
The nazi/commie LARP is perfect to the point of reconstructing ww2 battles
>Hemmed into a narrow area, the 250,000-strong Soviet force inside the pocket was exterminated from all sides by German armored, artillery and machine gun firepower as well as 7,700 tonnes of air-dropped bombs.
Here's hoping.
Does anyone know of any YouTubers who shill Russia? I need someone to make fun of
CovertCabal
That guy doesn't really shill anyone he just takes the le analytical stance
there was some brownoid with history in his channel name. forgot it though, maybe someone else knows.
historylegends?
theinfographics or whatever is still putting out videos about a month ago shilling that rus could take NATO. shitty animation and not recommended. like other guy said covert cabal still shills their systems pretty hard.
HistoryLegends. *Very* thinly-veiled vatnik cheerleader larping as "is of just honest analyze of war, comrade."
CovertCabal is less a shill and more an autist that had been well taken-in and fooled by years of bad/outright fabricated specifications and capabilities of Russian and chinkoid hardware and doctrine. The fricking sock puppet, Binkov I think, now there's a candidate for russoid shill.
>HistoryLegends
Just looked at his channel, latest video is how uaf failed in kherson and there's a pol on community where most of his audience think the russians will encircle and counter all the ukie troops that advanced
On second thought, I might give his shit another sample when Ukrainians take back Kupiansk and Izium. A sheer, absolute fricking vatnik cesspool, complete with thirsty vatnik fans. I can only imagine his comments section to be a fine rainbow coalition of thirdies and assorted tankie delights.
Jordan Peterson
>HistoryLegends
God, what a fricking disappointment, I actually enjoy his non-Ukraine PrepHole content, but the dumbass seems to think that the Russian Army of 2022 is still the Red Army of 1945-1991 and not a horde of cargo cultists wearing its rotting skin. That or he's just milking the Vatnik crowd for views, which is possibly even more despicable.
>Jordan Peterson
That homosexual still makes videos?
His Ukraine video is basically him ranting for an hour about how the war is the fault of the West because muh Globohomosexual and how Ukraine should just capitulate to the Gulaghomosexual instead.
Now, I actually agree with a lot of Peterson says most of the time but can we turn off the Culture War shit for like ten fricking seconds please? If the Russians had their way, they would exterminate every last one of us and wouldn't be a culture left to fight over.
Peterson is inherently a neocon talking head so he will have a lot of party line opinions that are downright moronic.
To be fair. All parties have those among their ranks.
But yeah he should stick to psychology not geopolitics and war commenting.
>But yeah he should stick to psychology not geopolitics and war commenting.
Psychology was never anything but a stepping stone for him.
Peterson fell hard
One frick-up does not invalidate his previous good work. Good deeds do not erase bad deeds, nor do bad deeds erase good deeds. He's flawed like we all are and in this case it showed particularly clearly.
Don't go to him for geopolitical takes but his anti-wokism crusade remains relevant. The dismantling of the institutions of the West from within needs to be stopped or we're the next R*ssia.
you're such a fricking Black person dude. Why do I keep running into you here.
He fricking lost if over all the culture war bullshit. None of that is even relevant when faced with an invading totalitarian empire
Wasn’t he in a full on covid coma at one point? I can’t imagine you ever completely come back from that, mentally speaking
i think he went into coma after his moronic daughter sent him to a russian hospital for his benzo addiction.
Calm down, trannies, remember that he will actually use your pronouns if not compelled by law.
I hate people like him
>DUDE WEST SHOULD JUST GIVE IT TO RUSSIA WELL BECAUSE YOU KNOW?
frick these parasites if anything west should nuke russia and chink and get them down on their knees.
The reasoning for a lot of that was that Russia was a strong country and a potential US ally against China.
>Jordan Peterson
The way he smugly asserts shit while talking about things he very clearly has no fricking clue about makes me so fricking mad
I wish he'd just go back to being a statistic on drug use
Really? He fricked up that hard?
Frying your brain with benzos and then going into a medical coma in a dodgy russian drug clinic while your moron daughter feeds you raw meat will destroy anybody, and Peterson was never that smart to begin with, he was just good at affecting a collegiate attitude and being a surrogate dad for fatherless NEETs.
I never saw him as a father figure, given that I have a father and a wonderful family, but I liked him for being the closest thing to an intellectual of the past, even if he was overly emotional and I didn't agree with him on everything. He stood up for western civilization and classical values, which I something I could respect, and he did it in the face of overwhelming criticism. He was a breath of fresh air.
I just don't understand how he can fall for propaganda as blatant as what the degenerate Russian savages produce.
I guess his recent bullshit explains why he's plastered his walls with Soviet propaganda. He claimed it was to remind him of evil and to oppose authoritarianism, but I guess that was just a lie. I mean, there was no nazi art on his walls.
So much for his proselytizing Solzhenitsyn. Now he's supporting the spiritual successors of the genocidal regime he so vehemently criticized.
>Peterson was never that smart to begin with, he was just good at affecting a collegiate attitude
wrong; he was a good prof who rebelled against the prevailing collegiate attitude which is "keep your head down and don't annoy the globohomos"
most of what he says in his chosen battlefield is sound. he just shouldn't ever have commented on military matters
>his moronic daughter sent him to a russian hospital for his benzo addiction.
This is actually a good point, he probably feels beholden to Russia for helping him.
I had a coworker send me on a date with a friend of his girlfriend once. I kept shilling for the guy at work even when he fricked everything up horribly.
Jordan Peterson during his biblical series time was amazing, post drug coma Jordan is just a caricature of his former self
Peterson is a pretty decent social psychologist. Just like Chomsky is regarded as one of the best linguists alive.
But why the frick do these intellectuals think that they can have a robust opinion on geopolitics is beyond me. Chomsky has outright genocide denial point of views.
Same with Peter Zeihan. He keeps trying to pretend to be a military strategist on his Twitter account now.
>Zeihan
Top kek - he literally thought as late as May that Russia would be able to march to the Polish border. A moron like me worked out in less than a week into the war once my depression cleared up that 200k troops wasn't going to take jack shit when Sarajevo held out while completely surrounded for several years.
>I actually agree with a lot of Peterson says most of the time
moron.
Even the top comments question him.
Man, I used to look up to him, even have the lobster book, JP was based back in the bible days.
Before anyone asks yes, my father was pretty absent in my upbringing.
Why the hell are people getting their opinions on this war from a washed up psych professor in a questionable mental state?
celebrity mentality. for the same reason celebrities also get a lot of likes on tweets despite saying nothing out of the ordinary
Every
single
fricking
pro-russian westerner
fricking frames a conflict that is at it's core a conflict of one nation, with it's own cultural identity, rejecting the historical, literal and secondarily cultural imperialism of it's bully of a neighbor, who is essentially telling them that they have no right to exist and do not exist
as
"This is the culture war's next step, and western civilization and the white race is at stake if we don't oppose the globalists!!!11!!"
Fricking shut the frick up
And the people who believe this shit should be labeled as having Low-IQ
This is just the next thing in a long line of things where "western civilization and the white race is at stake and being destroyed by the globalists;" It's all a fricking grift.
>Ukraine should just capitulate to the Gulaghomosexual instead
It's a moronic video full of non-sequiturs and lots of idiocy but he doesn't actually say or imply that. He apparently unironically bought into the MUH NOOOOKS narrative (including the tsunami nook, kek) and argues that Pootin is some kind of Godemperor who could make his nation commit thermonuclear suicide if he wanted to, completely ignoring the reality of R*ssian power structures and nuclear C&C.
He's simply talking out of his ass because he got too comfy more or less successfully speaking on things he has no expertise on.
Peterson says that NATO and Ukraine should be “having dialogue with Putin” instead of saber-rattling because he MIGHT use nukes, which as far as I’m concerned is a de facto demand for Ukrainian capitulation.
Any Russian threats of using nuclear weapons should be met with threats from NATO of equally brutal nuclear retaliation in kind. The only thing these people understand or respect is force.
The war is the fault of the West only in the context that they refused to properly protect Ukraine from Russian aggression and overall bullshittery.
NATO gave ample space for Russia to misbehave instead of properly dealing with them in order to appease them and Russia, like the sociopathic country that it is decided to exploit it to its maximum extent.
Fortunately, it seems that NATO is finally done with their bullshit, even Macron finally realized its useless to try to talk to Putin like civilized humans do.
I agree with the basic premise of the video In that the west is facing a choice where it must pick it's own madness. That' it's confronted with the fact that it can't have it's cake and eat it too.
I will also agree that this isn't one of his best video lectures.
I agree. Ukraine is not JP's fight. His is a much higher one.
extracrispi, shut the frick up
Silence Reznov
>the dumbass seems to think that the Russian Army of 2022 is still the Red Army of 1945-1991
>or he's just milking the Vatnik crowd for views
Probably a little bit of both, really. I gave him a shot for Ukraine content as I'd subscribed to him way back, but his commitment to the notion of Russian competence somehow still existing wound up tainting his objectivity, especially once things developed well enough for hindsight to really abuse a lot of his past takes on things.
Basically every alt righter
Military Summary is a propaganda shill from Russia who's literally paid to do it.
Military and Foreign Affairs Network is some LOLbertarian from America who tries to come off as impartial but plainly wants Russia to score a crushing victory to spite his domestic enemies.
And if you like laughing at literally who completely clueless amateurs who do it for free, the funniest one I found is Weeb Union.
Now get this. He's a second generation shitskin immigrant, islamic commie, squatting in Denmark, simping for Russia. And he looks literally like the swarthoid on this pic.
>russia planning counter-counteroffensive
does russia really have orthodox larpers on their side? Have they not heard of the state and history of the russian orthodox church?
Don't lump Orthos in with those people. The Orthodox world is already pissed at the Russian Church for supporting the war.
My GF is polish so I went to a pro-ukraine rally when this shitshow began.
The most level headed but also heartwarming person was the OrthoPriest. Great man.
Also my ex is Ukrainian and she warned me back then that the Russian Church SPECIFICALLY was a KGB and now FSB branch.
In fact, putting all the pieces together, the Patriarch of Constantinople blessed the separation of the Ukie church from the Russian one some time ago. The shitheads got mad.
image ain't even a strawman
>how many levels of being a subverted failure are you on
>like 5 or maybe 6 my dude
>you are a little baby
scott ritter
>asking KKK to embrace the Black person loving culture
this guy is delusional
Isn't Scott Diddler the chomosexual who was dumb enough to walk in to same honeypot twice?
seems like it kek, i hadn't heard that
>After this information was made public in early 2003, Ritter said that the timing of the leak was politically motivated in order to silence his opposition to the Bush administration's push toward war with Iraq.
Uh ya man, you're still a kid diddler.... Like, why would he say that as if it excuses anything? "O ya well you weren't actually supposed to know that so it doesn't matter"
Arch Vatnikhammer just released a video chuckling and doomposting about EU freezing and starving and how it was all a genius master plan by based Putin.
Sargoy and his homosexuals made three videos basically saying Two Weeks at the start of the war, then pretended it didn't happen until recently when they started crying about gas prices and how UK is a small cottage island who dindu nuffins and should not get involved.
Throw a stone into the whole pack of Gamergate alt-right Black folk and you'll hit a vatnik.
What went wrong with the alt right dudes Jesus Christ. I thought they supported individual freedom? Why are they sucking Russian wiener? I’d be disappointed if I didn’t have better things to do than be mad about morons I used to watch on YouTube when I was 13
because they are literally "i oppose the current thing" meme
None of these homosexuals get more than 200k views per video on YT and more than 10k on other le based free speech EVER GROWING YA HEAR ME platforms. That's pocket change ad revenue assuming they get any, nor they have any other jobs or shit like patreon because they got kicked out even back when I used to watch them. Sargoy even has a studio and employees. Who do you think pays their bills?
Very very few /misc/tards have independent thoughts or original opinions on anything. Useful idiots and contrarians the lot of them.
>UK is a small cottage island who dindu nuffins and should not get involved.
The invasion happened because the US and UK told Ukraine in 1994 "Get rid of the nukes, we'll protect you." This crisis 100% involves the US and UK by any metric.
I'm nationalist right but there's a reason that the /uhg/ and /chug/ war's been happening on /misc/, which as far as I can see is the first time there's been a serious narrative war there since the Lolbertarian vs Nazi wars of 2013. A majority of people in the nationalist right in the West are evidently just anti-current thing and have little plans about how to actually make themselves appealing to the population. East European nationalists by contrast were significantly more anti-Russia, because they didn't want to have their cultures and languages obliterated by le savior of the white race.
>The invasion happened because the US and UK told Ukraine in 1994 "Get rid of the nukes, we'll protect you." This crisis 100% involves the US and UK by any metric.
NTA and not disagreeing but I feel it should be mentioned that Russia also was on that agreement to protect Ukraine.
The involvement that those "nationalist right" people refer to though regularly is that the the moronic culture war bullshit that is more existent in US/UK politics (barely so on the fringe of right and left, I'd fricking argue) is a bigger factor in a conflict that has historical context going back a hundred years at least, if not more.
Basically I'm saying that the relating of this conflict to the moronic culture war and savior of the white race shit is a lot of pundit like sargoy attempting to partly coop something in order to grift more from moronic people.
Even if they kept the nukes they wouldn't have had the budget to maintain them.
Even if they HAD the budget, they wouldn't have the capability to launch them because the control centers are in Russia.
You're a fricking moron and should stop talking about things you don't understand.
... Yes? There was an actual debate in Ukraine at the time and the decision was solidified when the US and UK brokered the Budapest Memorandum, a decision that almost every Ukrainian thinks was a mistake - source: talked to them when I was over there.
> East European nationalists by contrast were significantly more anti-Russia, because they didn't want to have their cultures and languages obliterated by le savior of the white race.
Non-rus slav here. I'd be careful with this claim. A lot of our right and far-right saw Putin as a father figure that needs to be copy-pasted locally, along with the whole state apparatus. Same goes for leftists and ironically enough lolberts. Coincidentally every time audit happens to them for being homosexuals, it turns out they've been getting a lot of money from businessmen with connections to other businessmen further east.
>Coincidentally every time audit happens to them for being homosexuals, it turns out they've been getting a lot of money from businessmen with connections to other businessmen further east.
Funny that.
Same shit in Romania. Eastern Europe, with the exception of some moronic boomers, seems to generally be more right leaning as sort of a slingshot reaction to its communist past, that explains why it gives some westerners the impression that our right is somehow less contrarian than theirs.
But the more extremist morons are still heavily tied to Moscow. They think young people having dyed hair and riding electric scooters will obviously lead to societal collapse, so they think the solution is to yet again live under a repressive regime lead by borderline morons.
i HATE Arch homosexualhammer but hes not pro-russian, hes been very critical of russian strategies from day one
if you speak Taco language, check Canal Conocimiento Militar, biggest russian shill around and he is coping HARD
>jajajaja Kherson offensive failed according to russian cope maps
>jajajaja the Ukranians might have advanced a lot in Kharkiv but its only a matter of time before glorious rasha attacks their supply lines
>jajajaja yes Ukraine advanced in Kharkiv but its ok because that front was defended by third grade troops and theres nothing of value there so it doesnt count
>jajajaja ok maybe russia didnt hit the supply lines, but they will surely fall before the russian counter attack THAT IS TOTALLY HAPPENING AMIGOS
and now, the biggest cope atleast in spanish pro-russian circles, is that winter will somehow save russia, either because they will make a great winter offensive or europe will freeze without russian gas or something
they have been reduced to begging for favorable weather, no different from natives performing a rain dance
Better start sacrificing babies and ripping out hearts to Tlaloc and Mixcoatl if the Mexicans want any effect on Russian weather, lmao.
Binkovs Battlefield doesn't seem like a shill, but his videos have a very strong "The gloves have yet to come off!" tilt when talking about Russia.
>his videos have a very strong "The gloves have yet to come off!" tilt when talking about Russia
most generous take I can give him is that his entire schtick was reading Wikipedia TOEs and matching them up against each other, so he probably unironically buys into the "3,000 tanks ready, and 10,000 more well on the way" bullshit
that or he's a closet vatnig
Every day until Strelkov kills himself
If the Ukies win, I will print out and cum on any picture of RU colaborators getting killed and/or tortured. I will then mail those pictures to their families.
Screencap this.
Holy trips.
>those digits
i do not habeeb it
>777
At long last, the kek is coming for monke
Done 🙂
DIGITSAMA, I KNEEL
based
Based coomer
Well. Get the phonebook out I guess, lmao.
>globohomosexual ready to deploy Coomberg
Vatniks are FRICKED.
TRIP-GODS are watching
You better deliver anon
Disgusted but intrigued
>Trips of Artillery
A blessed post.
Based vengeance wanker
Trips of Truth
I hope you've got plenty of lithium in your diet, anon
bruh
Include pregnant Anne Frank in the screencap
Put me in the screencap.
Numbers never lie
do it
dangerously based
>777
This post was supplied by NATO
on a pallet
Checked, keked and Based.
I was here when the coomer Terrorist made his promise to terrorize an entire country by cumming on the pics of dead soldiers.
What do we call you : The Coomer of Kyiv?
The memes are starting to break into the real world.
Based and cum-pilled
>those digits
you must now
no backing out
Holy fricking jackpot
t. most moderate man in Poland
This is absolutely disgusting, anon.
Godspeed and luck on completing this noble task.
And so it is.
>Vatniks dying, and traitors have their legacies literally stained forever.
Witnessed.
They say that we die twice. Once, when you stop breathing. And then again when the Coomer of /k/yiv cums on your photo and sends it to your grieving family.
Based deranged coomer. I'll hold you onto that promise.
And a guy said he would eat his own shit if Ukraine was still standing at the end of February or something. It never happened. Who cares.
Eating shit is disgusting. Cumming all over the place is pleasant.
BASED
We will be watching your career with great interest. The /k/ouncil will be watching.
But how many vatniks dead?
Not enough
Never enough
Reinforcements are coming
why is that moron wearing a bulletproof vest if he is in r*ssia and stuff?
Gopniks could be everywhere.
He wanna be taktikool
This particular guy wasn't wonded in combat. He was born that way. He's a Ukrainian member of old Yanukovich party who served in their Rada before maidan, then betrayed Ukraine in favor of Russia. He's assumed to be a rich guy, so him being dressed in uniform and riding in an old-school wheelbarrow instead of a wheelchair is pure cosplay.
Truly, the modern-day Ephialtes.
Rooks arike you haff the man you used to be!
Looks like Oskil was taken
Oskil is the name of the river.
>Oskil is the name of the river.
There's also a small pond with the same name closeby.
>pic on the right is literally a thumbs down
Poetic
Are there any recent developments?
Can the Ukrainians make any more flash gains? What about Izyum?
Some Ruskie collaborators were asking for reinforcements on telegram saying Izium would be defenseless with troops being redeployed north.
If they had any brains or initiative they'd be attempting a withdraw in good order out of Izyum right fricking now in order to preserve some fricking equipment from just being given to the UA.
>If they had any brains or initiative they'd be attempting a withdraw in good order out of Izyum right fricking now in order to preserve some fricking equipment from just being given to the UA.
Yeah, Izyum is gone at this point. I mean, not literally yet of course, but you can't hold something like that with primary supply cut and remaining lines under direct enemy fire control with roads/rivers zeroed in. It might well seem to them like "if only they just get some reinforcements!!" they can hold it but that isn't how logistics works it merely delays the inevitable while wasting more resources.
Fortunately vatniks are highly centralized and what little central brains they possessed have been getting rapidly blown out.
>"bravely initiated a tactical withdrawal"
shit apparently some high command in Izyum already fled with the wounded
>he took the difficult personal decision (I would say an act of strongest will) to evacuate Izyum
lmao
lol even
it's sarcasm, Russians are of the opinion that the military is bungling it up, but incorrectly believe it's lower commanders being cowardly/treasonous and refusing hard positions
in reality, even if they did not flee, no reinforcements are coming - Russia's military is being crushed
?t=140
Even if it's obvious I hope to see someone do a riff to this featuring russ "commanders".
>CO of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle
>The Taman Guard
>The literal honor guard of the Kremlin since 1953
>legs it at the first sign of trouble
already got BTFO'd in the Chernihiv sector
Who was it again…I’m thinking it was the 2nd Tank Guards commander who fled with the wounded. Apparently leaving up to 22K worth of troops and equipment behind to lead from further in the rear.
if true, how are they able to do this with light and motorized infantry? was all the shilling and striking around kherson just a ploy?
TEMPO TEMPO TEMPO
The russians are even less well equipped, and their heavy units are stuck in contact, or ambushed moving trying to put out fires. Light Cav tactics my man
>light and motorized infantry?
We’ve seen T-72 tanks as well as M270 MLRS and PzH 2000 as part of this assault. These aren’t merely humvees giving the Russians issues. The first breakthrough was accomplished by 17 T-72 tanks smashing through the OMON units holding the line.
Since Ukraine has exactly one bataillon of PzH 2000, do they use them in a single area or are some of them deployed in Kherson?
I wish I knew. I too thought they were all down south but then a couple of days ago that webm pops up of a column of IFVs and two PzH 2000 in Kharkiv.
Confidential. They are most likely used in 2 pairs of 6 or 6 pairs of 2.
They have 18 in total because they have 18 SPH in a bataillon. They also have 18 Krab and 18 CAESAR for that reason.
>Glorified riot cops vs seventeen MBTs
What the frick are the Russians thinking
>was all the shilling and striking around kherson just a ploy?
No, UA is absolutely serious about both, Kherson is very important. They have multiple theaters of command though and are capable of multitasking and trying a few things at once at this point, so they're doing a one-two punch. Kherson did attract more vatnik forces, so western command saw an opening and went for it, and then it went really well, so now they're focused on exploiting that and establishing a solid new front with the river while cutting a critical depot.
But iof instead Russia had left another area weak they'd have done that instead. And by the same token if Russia now rushed back up to try to defend/take back this, well UA is ready to move aggressively on any further voids that appear. Russia has suffered enough logistical and command damage that they have become over extended without any defensive depth, so they can rob peter to pay paul but that doesn't help their overall strategic situation and once their initial positions collapse they are liable to get routed which is super wasteful.
>Kherson did attract more vatnik forces, so western command saw an opening and went for it, and then it went really well, so now they're focused on exploiting that and establishing a solid new front with the river while cutting a critical depot.
so reinforcing success instead of the typical military thinking of forcing a push where they want it?
Right, probably one of the biggest things NATO gave Ukraine since 2014 was training and thinking on how to be more decentralized and allow local commands straight down to troop level to have more initiative with central helping to coordinate and determine overall strats, but not trying to micromanage or insist dynamic unpredictable stuff goes their way. I mean obviously all the advanced weapons and such are super helpful too at this stage, but it's that difference in command structure and thinking that helped the UA punch way above their weight early on when all they were getting was some TOWs/Javs, and is radically different then the old soviet organization they used to be on and Russia still is.
So basically don't extrapolate retroactively too much, UA was doing it right by having plans for no matter what happened. They kept hitting logistics and poking here and there, helped of course by very advanced intel. They were looking for "something" not a single specific thing, so Russia could have reacted differently but still gotten fricked merely somewhere else because they'd been steadily getting more and more stretched. Those pokes weren't "feints" if vatniks had showed the right openings or collapsed at Kherson they'd have been perfectly happy with it. But they were trying to create a situation where inevitably SOMETHING had to give because Russia could just no longer be everywhere at once. And then they were ready to move, and not cautiously and hesitantly but move move move for tactical high value objectives.
It's still ballsy of course and stuff can still go wrong, full credit to the forces at the tip of the spear. But a lot went on leading up to this moment as well (which no doubt makes it sweeter for them).
MuttBlack person shills and fed mods already changed are already back to coping about successful evacuation mission after exposing how weak Donetsk and Russia are and how strong American terrorist have been for one day of getting sorrounded
I can't even tell what you are with a post as schizoid as this.
>was all the shilling and striking around kherson just a ploy?
No, they are pushing into Kherson as well. However, because this was widely anticipated by everyone including Russia for the last month or more, Russia moved a shitload of troops and equipment south to defend Kherson, leaving other fronts ripe for collapse.
Ukraine is, quite wisely, taking these opportunities while they can. Unfortunately, that overshadows Kherson, and it's going to make things much harder on the troops fighting to take back Kherson.
Eventually Russia is going to have to mooooobilize if they don't want to just give up (or go nuclear), and at that point things will get REALLY HARD.
problem with mobilization is that the russian train system will effectively force all mobilized troops to pass through moscow. This happened in 1917. Problem with nukes aside from pissing off literally everybody is that not only does it invite NATO escalation but lots of powerful Muscovites have close family in Western cities. They may not be particularly interested in the prospect of being nuked, nor of nuking their own progeny.
I actually think Putin just needs to keep the war going without actually doing any fighting. He has total control of the state and can keep it on a wartime footing even if there is no actual war going on. Who will challenge him, so long as Muscovites get their three meals a day and internet?
>Eventually Russia is going to have to mooooobilize if they don't want to just give up (or go nuclear), and at that point things will get REALLY HARD.
They can't supply the troops they have right now anon. They're in a vastly worse supply and kit position then they were at the start too. This isn't pre-WW1, you can't just throw mass meat at a war and expect it to make the slightest difference vs mechanized infantry with HMGs and artillery, let alone hyper advanced satellite and drone surveillance support supplied by the most developed nations on the planet.
And they can "give up" without publicly "giving up" like other anon said. They can claim the special operation is ongoing but just, not have anything more than forces at the border. Turn it back into a frozen conflict. Would be a lot easier then people think, like, suddenly they don't even have to cover up death totals anymore because there wouldn't be any! Surely a sign of how much they're winning! If you look at how insulated from this average Russians are right now it's entirely believable, nobody can gainsay the Kremlin's story. Giving up while claiming they didn't would be a very straight forward move, far more then mobilization or nooks.
>And they can "give up" without publicly "giving up" like other anon said. They can claim the special operation is ongoing but just, not have anything more than forces at the border. Turn it back into a frozen conflict.
Cannot occur now because Ukraine does not want a frozen conflict. The separatists and Russia alike are now depleted, making rolling back to past borders or freezing current borders untenable, it only works if you have force to back it up.
>Cannot occur now because Ukraine does not want a frozen conflict. The separatists and Russia alike are now depleted, making rolling back to past borders or freezing current borders untenable, it only works if you have force to back it up.
Wrong. How can you be this fricking ignorant here and talk when you've apparently never heard of "Korea" before!? You know that we're literally still legally at war there? No peace treaty was ever signed. It's a frozen conflict, one of the most dangerous hardest borders on the planet but zero of each other's forces on the other side of it, both stick to their own while waving swords once in a while. Russia could easily use that model for this, and just fricking lie. They already are lying, constantly!
>The separatists and Russia alike are now depleted
They can literally just claim they have separatists anyway! Just make it all up like they are right fricking now!
>it only works if you have force to back it up.
lol? We can literally see in real time that's not the case anon. Russians accept being lied to either because they actually believe it or the culture of cynicism/nihilism the government has worked to cultivate. Kremlin can claim there is a war when there is no war and it'd literally be easier, an improvement.
Russia cannot choose to stop Ukraine from marching. The entente in North Korea is because North Korea has enough manpower and external support that South Korea does not WANT to invade North Korea.
If North Korea depleted its military or alienated China, South Korea would likely invade North Korea.
UKraine DOES want to retake its land, and Russia has no say in whether they do this.
Attempting to "freeze" the conflict, as they did in 2014, would have only worked while Russia's military was a deterrent force.
>Russia cannot choose to stop Ukraine from marching
Of course they can. Ukraine INVADING Russia is very different from completely booting them from their own borders. Russia's inability to push far beyond its own borders is very different from internal defense on their own territory. And this is a case where the Nuke Card actually for real comes into play. Using nukes against someone else for aggression is an ultimate bad. But using nukes on your own territory against a literal land invading army? That's the core legitimate argument for them. Ukraine isn't going to do that.
>UKraine DOES want to retake its land, and Russia has no say in whether they do this.
Yeah? Which is fine. And doesn't affect their ability to have a frozen conflict at all wtf?
>Attempting to "freeze" the conflict, as they did in 2014, would have only worked while Russia's military was a deterrent force.
It's absolutely a deterrent force for the invasion of Russia still. Just like North and South Korea are 100% independent sovereign countries. Russia can retreat right back to their own borders, then just claim the battle is ongoing anyway and simply never declare it over, even though nothing is happening. That's the literal definition of a FROZEN conflict anon. If anything was happening it wouldn't be "frozen" now would it?
>Ukraine INVADING Russia is very different from completely booting them from their own borders.
>Russia can retreat right back to their own borders
Completely booting Russia out from Ukraine's borders is a total failure for Putin and will not go over well with the Russian people. Russians would tolerate a break-even and "denazification" stalemate silently, but if Russia was pushed out of Ukraine entirely (or past Belgorod for funzies) then it would be a new level of humiliation.
>Completely booting Russia out from Ukraine's borders is a total failure for Putin and will not go over well with the Russian people
Why not? What are they going to do about it vs their inaction already? Particularly if he simply makes the official line that Russia hasn't been booted at all but won and has now left it to local elements. And it's 15 years in prison if you say otherwise. And unlike right now, there is literally no one being killed anymore, no more money being pissed away there.
What's anyone going to do anon? You think THAT will be the time the russian population suddenly gains introspection? Or you think there will be a military coup, when the military was just further hollowed out and the security services made stronger? Oligarchs are under his boot already in favor of security services.
>If North Korea depleted its military or alienated China, South Korea would likely invade North Korea.
Doubtful. South Korea doesn't want the expense and trouble of assimilating millions of mindfricked Norks.
It might be more accurate to imagine South Korea's forces being depleted at the same time as the U.S. is distracted/isolationist. In that situation, North Korea would almost certainly invade South. Meanwhile, even if the U.S. was not a factor, if South Korea's military was still robust, the North would tolerate a stalemate.
Russia has no more men and no backup, out of Ukraine they go (whether they want to or not).
>expense and trouble
you kidding? it would skyrocket the Seoul economy
No, it really wouldn't. It would take a decade or more before the Norks were anything but a drain. Look at the reunification of Germany; the Osties didn't understand how to function in a capitalist economy, their skills were decades behind, and they were starting from financial zero. West Germany had to commit to feeding, educating, and training them before they could be economically beneficial.
Even today the eastern parts of Germany are relatively economically depressed.
>It would take a decade or more
but it would be a shot in the arm, eventually
it's like making the developing-nation-middle-income transition all over again. all those Norks to get consooming
>They can't supply the troops they have right now anon.
Good point. but as
notes,
>Turn it back into a frozen conflict.
the Ukrainians won't allow this and neither will anyone else. Ukraine has brought the Russian military to its knees; there's no "ok we'll let you rest for a decade while you prepare for invading us again."
>If you look at how insulated from this average Russians are right now
Ukraine has noted this, and has written that it intends to bring the war to the average Russian in 2023. See the paragraph below the image of the ATACMS in this article:
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html
I personally found the translation of this that I read to be chilling. Russia either gives up or it's going to get forcibly escalated by Ukraine next year.
>the Ukrainians won't allow this and neither will anyone else. Ukraine has brought the Russian military to its knees;
see
. Neither Ukraine nor anybody else has the combination of capability and will to stop it from being a frozen conflict. A lot of you clearly have not internalized what that actually means despite me giving an example. A frozen conflict is literally just two countries officially in a continuing state of hostility and faceoffs, with maybe occasional pot shots at each other, while nothing happens. Both stay to their own borders. But they aren't at peace either, the borders are rock hard, mined, walled, covered in emplacements etc. That's it. Russia of course could do this, merely by leaving Ukraine entirely and consolidating in their own country. UA's ability to make headway in their own country isn't the same as the ability to counter-invade another.
UA might want to counter-invade even, but there the US and others really would say "hey hold up, don't pull a Hitler". Russia has land to give up temporarily, Ukraine has been seriously economically hurt. In fact
>ok we'll let you rest for a decade while you prepare for invading us again
You've got this backwards anon: it's Russia that is now going to be more hurt by the passage of time, not Ukraine. It's Ukraine who will get stronger, faster, given the chance. They'll have time to fully integrate with Europe and NATO, to fully update their military, to restock, to rebuild their industrial base faster and better. They're far more industrious, are now fully united, working hard on corruption. If Russia went back to their own borders and did a frozen conflict tomorrow, in ten years I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine literally has a bigger economy and is utterly unassailable.
>Both stay to their own borders.
Average Russians view Crimea and Donbas as "their own borders" and view the continued existence of Ukraine/Belarus with skepticism. Ukraine is going to invade Crimea by mid 2023. That is not a "frozen conflict" in the minds of Russians, because Ukraine will not let it be one.
>Average Russians view Crimea and Donbas as "their own borders" and view the continued existence of Ukraine/Belarus with skepticism. Ukraine is going to invade Crimea by mid 2023. That is not a "frozen conflict" in the minds of Russians
Russian minds "can be changed" by state decree. If the Kremlin declares it then it is so. I don't see anything significant at this point domestically that threatens them. The population has been cultured to "nothing really matters everything is shit" anyway.
CONTEXT anon: you're claiming that using nuclear fricking weapons is LESS risky then declaring victory and leaving while claiming the battle continues, with only internal dissent to suppress? Get fricking real. Monke isn't facing any particular threat from the masses unless maybe he actually tries to mobilize them. Or invites nuclear retaliation. If he goes for frozen conflict instead life will literally get better for the average Russian.
>you're claiming that using nuclear fricking weapons is LESS risky
I didn't see anyplace where he claimed that. He's pointing out, correctly, that the Ukrainians aren't going to tolerate leaving things frozen after having lost 21% of their territory. They did that for eight years after losing 7% in 2014 and look where that got them.
>I didn't see anyplace where he claimed that.
Follow the thread back up to the beginning anon and
. What I was responding too was
>Eventually Russia is going to have to mooooobilize if they don't want to just give up (or go nuclear)
Mobilization or nuclear are absolutely not the only options here, by any means. And both are vastly riskier then merely freezing it combined with more propaganda.
>He's pointing out, correctly, that the Ukrainians aren't going to tolerate leaving things frozen after having lost 21% of their territory.
They don't have a choice. They can't stage an effective invasion and conquest of Russia and force a total surrender that removes the current Kremlin regime alone, and the West isn't going to support that either. If Russia wants to negotiate a peace legitimately in exchange for reparations or something maybe Ukraine would consider it, but otherwise they'll have to be satisfied with gaining 100% of Ukraine (including Crimea) back and then rebuilding and buffing up to make it impossible to ever pull this shit again.
>Neither Ukraine nor anybody else has the combination of capability and will to stop it from being a frozen conflict.
That's the dumbest thing I've seen written. What stops Ukraine from just continuing to shell occupied territory? If Russia freezes, Ukraine can keep manufacturing shells and keep on bombing. Thus, the conflict won't be "frozen" and eventually Russia will be forced to unfreeze as well.
The reason the Norks and Worst Koreans aren't constantly shooting it out is because both sides AGREED to stop. There isn't a formal written treaty, but neither side wants to continue. If EITHER ONE said "frick it, I'm not putting up with this any more", the conflict would go hot again.
>If Russia went back to their own borders and did a frozen conflict tomorrow, in ten years I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine literally has a bigger economy and is utterly unassailable.
Russia can go back to its USSR-tier command economy, and just demand that everyone churn out artillery shells. They have oil, gas, population, and territory. Sure, they won't have iPhones or Chryslers, but they can churn out steel and explosives all that they want.
>That's the dumbest thing I've seen written
No, you're just inventing some make believe definition of frozen conflict to knock down anon.
>The reason the Norks and Worst Koreans aren't constantly shooting it out is because both sides AGREED to stop. There isn't a formal written treaty, but neither side wants to continue. If EITHER ONE said "frick it, I'm not putting up with this any more", the conflict would go hot again.
DUH? That's why it's still a CONFLICT, just FROZEN. What the frick? And you think Ukraine wouldn't "agree" to halt at Russia's borders but rather try to counter-invade?
>Russia can go back to its USSR-tier command economy, and just demand that everyone churn out artillery shells. They have oil, gas, population, and territory. Sure, they won't have iPhones or Chryslers, but they can churn out steel and explosives all that they want.
Which would mean jack fricking shit as we've literally seen vs an actual fully modernized military fighting a defensive war. Hell in 10 years Ukraine could literally be a NATO and EU member state if things went well. It's not about "iPhones or Chryslers" it's about "high performance aircraft" and "high precision ranged weapons" etc. And Ukraine can invest in serious emplacements too, which absolutely can work very well if they can't be bypassed or have support cut off.
Also, Russia's oil, gas, and population are all going to be worth a lot less in 10 years. Their demographics are utterly fricked. They themselves with this conflict have wrecked their biggest gas customer, and it's very non-trivial to redirect gas elsewhere. They could easily spend a decade just trying to match western pipeline capacity to go to China instead. Oil is somewhat more insulated, but the switch to BEVs is starting to accelerate hard at this point. Time is not on their side on that one either.
Ukraine would be perfectly well served by booting Russia back to their own borders and freezing it even if officially they stay at war.
Here's the quote:
Only in this case it is possible to discuss the influence on the real center of gravity of the Russian Federation in this war. It lies in its "remote" - in the understanding of most Russians - character. Thanks to this distance, the citizens of the Russian Federation do not so painfully perceive losses, failures, and most importantly - the cost of this war in all its meanings. A convincing example of the correctness of this approach in the current year is the successful efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to physically transfer hostilities to the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. We are talking about a series of successful missile strikes on the enemy's Crimean air bases, first of all, on the Saka airfield [4] . The task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 2023 is to make these feelings sharper, more natural and quite tangible for the Russians and in other occupied territories, despite the significant distance from the goals.
Frick me.
Imagine explaining to someone back in February 24 that after 6 months of war the ukies plan is basically "take back Crimea and make them feel the pain"
How is /chug/ taking this? I could go and look myself but I don't wanna.
I looked earlier, and they're either in pure denial phase or writing fan fiction like pic related
Doesn't sound like fan fiction, just presenting the Russian situation.
>"Ukrainian messages talk of panic and heavy losses at Kupyansk and a belief they've fallen into an ambush on a strategic scale. Demanding to know where aviation and artillery support is"
how is that not fan fiction again? they're plugged into Ukrainian comms, I take it? if so, then surely they can provide any evidence to back up these radical statements that seem to contradict literally everything else we're seeing coming out of that region
It's just taking the Russian problems and pretending the Ukrainians face them.
Ohh I misinterpreted your first reply, yes I agree with you, it seems like they just swapped "Ukraine" and "Russia" in whatever battlefield assessment they read on TG
>this level of denial
jesus christ this must be trolling
how deep has the monke penetrated this dude
Imagine the type of person who types all that complete bullshit
May the Queen curse him from beyond the grave.
There is no paniK
brown /chug/gers getting clowned on by /uhg/
There is no panic. Let your enemy think they are winning and then crush them.
they're holding up well
>Hey little guy, how are you doing?
>picrel
>Yea
They don't even bantz any more. They just keep shrieking about troons any time anyone posts. I'd say over half the posts are trolling them. I gave up, it was just too sad trombone noises to bother any more.
Any serious update from kupjansk in the last 2 hours?
What are the implications if Kupyansk and Izyum fall?
1st Guards Tank Army is fricked. That's about 22k men fricking gone with their equipment. That would be a huge loss for the Russians in men and equipment they can't afford to replace.
If Izium falls that's maybe 10-20% of Russian men and equipment in Ukraine.
they could just withdraw in relatively good order like they did from Kiev
some equipment losses but the men can be redeployed elsewhere
Can't now, Ukrainians have direct fire on their escape routes. They'll have to abandon most of their heavy equipment.
>They'll have to abandon most of their heavy equipment.
you mistake ukronazis for russys
Has there been any other conflict where one side has abandoned so much useful and useable material to the enemy? As in, Ukraine uses so much Russian equipment that they can directly use all types of ammo, vehicles and equipment straight off the battlefield.
They might already be cut off. Their options for retreat are either through the forest or another pontoon adventure. Either way, casualties will be high and most heavy equipment will need to be abandoned.
Kupiansk IS the escape route though. Sure Izyum isn’t completely surrounded, but Kupiansk is the only route that has the infrastructure necessary to efficiently move all of the heavy equipment. Any other route taken would require either abandoning things that can’t be properly replaced or try to take it all at a glacial pace that would probably be rip for artillery/airstrike/ambush/etc.
Tbh it remains to be seen if Ukraine can actually hold onto their gains, it’ll depend on how they withstand the inevitable countattack. Even so, all this definitely shows that Russia is having fairly serious problems maintaining a frontline over the entire country. They push back here and a gap opens up somewhere else.
>Kupiansk IS the escape route though
this
>how they withstand the inevitable countattack.
thats another funny thing, the only sensible route (bar an Izyum breakout) for a counterattack is head on through Kupiansk
>Kupiansk IS the escape route though.
Not any more, not with the bridge shot up. 🙂
The entire Donbass pincer is fricked.
The pincer was never going anywhere. Even Russians learned that endless attempts to produce an encirclement won't work.
Depends how they fall
If Russians manage to evac 80-90% of their soldiers then it's a small tactical victory for Ukraine and perhaps the beginning of a strategic victory
If Ukies manage to actually encircle them then the north eastern front will be pretty much fricked
>If Russians manage to evac 80-90% of their soldiers then it's a small tactical victory for Ukraine and perhaps the beginning of a strategic victory
Nah anon. Kupyansk is super important for logistics. If that and Izyum fall Russia's entire front there is pretty fricked. Highly, highly defensible too. And at this point it's too late to evac well while also preserving their heavy equipment, abandoning all that is more losses they cannot replenish.
Yeah saving man power would be better than nothing but this is a bad blow and if the UA consolidates a significant strategic loss. And that's ignoring soft factors, huge morale boost for Ukraine AND a significant geopolitics win to show Western donors which ensures aid keeps coming and that the West won't push for any sort of early peace negotiations where Ukraine gives anything up. All very important goals. Victory papers over a lot, Europe will definitely suffer somewhat this winter, not the "freezing in their homes" moronic bullshit vatBlack folk spew out since they cannot envision functioning governments, but there will definitely be some economic pain particularly in Germany as they work to wean themselves of Russian gas in a hurry. And that could in theory promote political pushback.
But people are a lot more willing to engage in solidarity if they can see it's actually working and worth it and they think they'll win in the end. Ukraine making some big visible breakthroughs before winter is therefore an even bigger deal. I'm sure they've considered that, and of course the risk of over extending by being too aggressive and desperate to show something. But if they pull it off then yeah that could tip the scales in important ways.
Also, if they (the Russians) do decide that manpower > equipment and get the boots out without their gear then all they do is replenish Ukrainian war supplies.
Ukrainians have more men than equipment (see: waiting lists for volunteers) so every single tank, howitzer, IFV or APC they capture is worth its weight in gold.
Furthermore, hypothetically speaking, if their offensives in the North and South do work. They will then hold two extremely defensive positions that will free up lots of manpower, especially in the South where hundreds of km's of frontage will be reduced to zero because water obstacle with no bridges. They can then use that manpower to develop local advantages in other areas to do more offensives which in turn can lead to a snowballing effect.
>shaping the front
>Furthermore, hypothetically speaking, if their offensives in the North and South do work. They will then hold two extremely defensive positions that will free up lots of manpower, especially in the South where hundreds of km's of frontage will be reduced to zero because water obstacle with no bridges. They can then use that manpower to develop local advantages in other areas to do more offensives which in turn can lead to a snowballing effect.
Good point, and this is the logic of a military route. Gains pile up for more gains, because forces start to get concentrated in useful ways and geography can get taken advantage of to protect flanks with less or no war power devoted to it. UA is going into their own territory so unlike Russia they also don't face the same risk of partisans. In fact in another delicious bit of irony Russia themselves have helped ensure that by using separatists and cannon fodder and force drafting much of the male population that could evade it and would otherwise potentially be more trouble, they've made the locals hate them AND cleared the way for the UA on all fronts! Not that UA doesn't still have to be very careful about their own supply lines and accidentally falling into tactical inferiority despite strategic superiority, history shows instances where that can lead to bad losses. And UA doesn't have much experience with this even if they're learning fast.
But even there having NATO intelligence and advisors with them is a huge help in avoiding slip ups, as is the Russian army's continued utterly outdated command structure. They simply can't react very well at the tactical level even if opportunity presents itself because they don't have the decentralized initiative and authorization. So while UA undoubtedly will make mistakes I honestly doubt Russ army is even capable of capitalizing on them fast enough, even ignoring that moving the front forward moves HIMARS etc forward too and they keep losing commanders.
Huge loss of equipment and soldiers if Russians don't evacuate
Logistics around the northeastern front completely fricked
End of any chance of encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Donbass
Ukrainians can now use kupyansk as base to launch offensives in Luhansk
Tl;Dr northeastern front gets fricked
>Huge loss of equipment and soldiers if Russians don't evacuate
AND it's an injection of supplies to Ukr.
> same caliber and all
Kupyansk Bridge allegedly got blown up
so there's a good chance. Here's hoping!
If Amerimutt terrorists zergrush it then it's super important.
If Donetsk and Luhanks and Russian allied forces continue to control it its not important.
t. glowBlack folk invading /k/
>bruh the only thing backing around here, are my swollen, backed up nuts. I can't wait to bust a fat one on the lifeless face of some pro-Ru rat humanoid and send it to his loving family.
If only I could be so grossly based.
Currently Russia is having a massive twitter offensive, about every bot they have fires messages about their big reinforcements arriving at Kupyansk and Ukraine taking massive losses in their failed counter offensive...
For when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you
Don't hold back, after this is done we'll have our whole lives to find peace and humanity again, meanwhile the vatniks will be dead lmao
What did we learn today? Losing some of your best forces and machines early in the war will have repercussions, sustained numbers =/= sustained quality, untrained and unmotivated forces will collapse and a small number of veterans cannot carry the burden themselves.
I've already informed The Hague that they have a new warcrime they should write a ban against. And also to shove it up their ass because as far as I'm concerned when it's Russians the list of warcrimes is an achievement list.
>The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation turned off comments on its social networks after the loss of Balakleya
49.72278093788284, 37.60798088080834
Photo by a civilian
That looks pretty north of the city. If the ukies have direct fire on the bridge already the Russians are cooooooked
Never mind. That bridge is already dropped
Looks like Ukraine took the gloves off.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
What’s actually going on I don’t understand
Second Battle of Kharkov. Team blue even has the crosses on their vehicles.
Russia moved the majority of their troops south to head off the hyped up Kherson offensive. They left behind homosexual riot police and DNR conscripts to guard the front near Kharkiv, Ukraine has broken through the front and found no resistance in the rear areas. Now Russia's main supply line to Izyum is cut.
This image will have me chuckling for a while even if original is old, the eternal pontoooner continues to feature in this war and it's great.
Kupiansk torwards the East side
Of the River
49.72278093788284, 37.60798088080834
Apparently from some minutes ago taken by a civilian
Which way is this pointing?
Torwards the East side of the city across the River, so from this morning
The bridge is down
There is no way to escape out of the Kupyansk
>Bridge is down
LET'S FRICKING GOOOOOOOO
that is a small river they can just quickly throw up some pontoons and encircle the pigs and put a lid on them hohols will be done. WELL done!
>just pontooon comerade
That's The Same River where the pontooning (never) happened.
>mind
Pontooning isn't something Russians want to do right about now.
>Slaughterhouse Copeyansk
That can still escape north, but it’s a really bad option, they will have to ditch a lot of equipment. Bigger problem for them is the reinforcements at svatove have to detour to help out now
Kupyansk bridge is falling down, falling down
Bros...
give me ONE good reason why this wouldn't work
the russian navy
> russian navy
> loses warship to a couple of row boats
inb4 "but one row boat was steam powered"
Y'ever think it's crazy how for like 2,000+ years, the entire fate of the world has consistently been decided by the contents of this box
I'm all in on western exceptionalism but that's a clinically moronic take on world history
So did the Ukrainians completely break their supply lines or did the Russians just not bother to build secondary defensive lines?
It seems like they didn't even plan for the possibility of Ukraine breaking through and now that the butthole is wide open they just keep on giving
They didn’t think Ukraine would attack let alone break through.
Ok, you’re directed by Putin to unfrick this shit.
He will allow you to cede territory to Ukraine for more favourable defensive positions, he doesn’t want a repeat of Kyiv.
What do you do? Where do you reinforce your troops to prevent a complete rout?
>Ok, you’re directed by Putin to unfrick this shit.
I immediately defect to the West and enjoy the billions of dollars I've stolen and are now safe in a Sw*ss bank account.
Not much you can do, Ukranians have been working on setting victory conditions for months now. The two "offensives" are just the little paragraph that concludes a long essay.
What is going to happen is going to happen, all you can do is try to mitigate as much damage as possible.
what they always should have done, take Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk, Toshivka, and form a line up to Duvanka. To make the cities more defensible, a fluid deployment trying to take everything East of Bakhmutka river (to Zarichne) is appropriate, but no hard combat or heavy armor.
Stop there, regroup, try again in 8 years.
As far as the South, literally unsustainable. Taking everything except Kherson was viable, they should have held Nova Kakhova to Vasylivka and turned Oleshky into a fortified position. Depopulate the western delta, because it is going to be nonstop partisan and guerilla warfare if held.
After Vasylivka, the new line should be Tokmak-Chernihivka-Rozivka-Volnovakha-Dokuchaevsk with a mobile line. This is a sustainable position.
Everything around Donetsk is a pointless bloodbath but Russia is not in the pilot seat. Donetsk partisans would be acting like spergs there even though Russia has old them not to. The best target would have been Avdiivka as the sole goal for those irregulars.
Is thereany chance this was done on purpose to then encircle them?
A10 WARTHOG KINO FROM THE GROUND IN UKRAINE
https://t.me/u_now/66077
I'm sorry, anon, but it's an edited video 🙁
There's always hope, though.
>1000 dead American terrorist later
>MuttBlack folk winning so much they need to spam fake videos and twitter.gov cope about "likely future potential successess"
time to sticky the suicide hotline on /misc/
I see the ukropiggies are dilating hard, their nato "training" is finally paying off
Just saw on /chug/ that the critical bridge got destroyed, too. It's not even worth trolling them at this point, they're so suicidally demoralized that they can't even bantz.
didnt wagner blow it up?
WHAT BRIDGE DEFENSE DOING
thats what you say!
I refuse to take anyone with this username, handle and pfp combo seriously.
Boy, the ruskies have utterly failed to protect every strategically important bridge they had didnt they?
Makes ya wonder whats gonna happen once the Ukis get within range of the Crimea bridge
Nice trips!
Not a lot of wondering, they're gonna blow the Kerch Strait Bridge apart. Some of the comments from the UA command structure make me think it's just a few weeks away.
If you want to bet on timing, there are a couple of bets up on Betmoose about it.
Good. Now that they can't run away, the Russians will have to fight and win.
>fight and win.
There's been some surrendering, so that's always an option
>BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
>BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
>BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
>BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
BRIDGE IN KUPIANSK
why worry, tovarisch Steinerov had already crossed this location with his army
Oh, Hi Mars.
bruh
>hello, is this the pontoon deparment?
You have a simple choice
>VDV
>Engineering Regiment: Pontoon Specialist
Which choose?
Now yous can't leave.
The next mental barrier that will have to be overcome in western (and Ukrainian) consciousness is the idea that territories occupied by Russia in 2014 can't be won back. If the current offensive succeeds, the next or the one after that could perhaps target Donetsk or Luhansk. If ukies take one of those, it will be a psychological blow unliked any before.
If they ever get to a point where thats viable the Russian army will be long gone so its moot.
I heard from one of Ukrainian politicians, that a blow to Donetsk was discussed back in April, as part of a supposed operation to break the encirclement of Mariupol, but it was ultimately decided to be too risky of a maneuver, since if the attack failed, the defensive line in Donbass would collapse.
Problem is that for every visible victory like that you're almost forcing Putin to escalate. And the only thing he has left is nukes. Initially it might be a nuke test on Russian soil just to send a message. This isn't some side conflict like Afghanistan where ultimately the Russians can claim some fabricated victory and move on. Putin has invested way too much political capital into this. He quite literally can't afford to lose this war
Putin got into power because the last guy got thrown out cuz Chechnya. Just saying, things get bad enough for the Russians maybe the Oligarchs choose a new guy.
He's keeping the oligarchs well fed and in line. No evidence that the security apparatus or military leadership is abandoning him. I believe he still controls every facet of policy
So what? I'm not spreading my cheeks for a crazed dictator just because he has a powerful bomb. Ukies would not, either.
If there's a reasonable suspicion that Putin will resort to nuclear arms, the US would use all their weight to pressure Zelensky into stopping the war. There is no strategic threat to the US here which means politically a nuclear conflict is a complete non-starter
There is a strategic threat of the world and the human civilization itself being held hostage by a maniac with a bomb. At this point, the objective would be not to defeat Russia in Ukraine, but to de-nuclearize Russia, in the interest of all humanity. Even Chinese would hop on board with it, since they wouldn't want a madman with nukes to exist, either.
However, I still believe that no nukes will be used in any case, as long as NATO is not involved directly, and perhaps even then.
Why didn't he just do this from the start?
Spoiler: He can't
Because at the start it wasn't obvious that the Russians would be BTFO in a conventional conflict
>The United Fricking States
>Giving into Nuclear pressure
You do realize that if the US backed down in that case, it's completely over for the West, right? If Putin threatened nukes and the US backed down, Putin would just continuously threaten nukes and get everything he wants without any stopping them.
It's obvious that Russia is in no state to continue threats to other countries. This isn't a slippery slope, at least in a span of a couple decades. Democracies don't tend to think that long ahead. If this war can be ended relatively quickly with Ukraine fighting the Russians to a heroic draw, this is a narrative that the West can run with.
Russia is in no state to threaten other countries with invasion but they still have nuclear fricking bombs, and they have been CONTINUOUSLY threatening to use them for the last few months. There should never be a moment where any nation gives in to such threats.
I completely agree with you in a strategic sense but in politics very often up is down. Look at Germany's moronic energy policy
That's Russky cope you're swallowing. Whats the point of nukes, strategically? If you concede to someone threatening their use because X is not worth MAD, what else in the world is not worth MAD, either, and is now fair game?
If Russian nukes fly for the sake of international coercion, Russia is getting glassed, simple as
>If there's a reasonable suspicion that Putin will resort to nuclear arms, the US would use all their weight to pressure Zelensky into stopping the war
Pure vatBlack person wishful cope.
>There is no strategic threat to the US here which means politically a nuclear conflict is a complete non-starter
You literally identified the strategic threat you fricking moron: allowing nuclear weapons to be used by nuclear powers to threaten direct wars of aggression and conquest. That's a HUGE strategic threat, it completely undermines the world. It ALSO completely undermines non-proliferation, because if it's allowed now everyone HAS to have nukes of their own, no question. If you don't, you're directly at risk from those who do.
That's just utterly unacceptable vs defensive possession. American can never allow it. And the politics of forcing Ukraine to SURRENDER to Russia (that's what your cute little "stopping the war" actually means), while they are winning (!!!), over monke's IM GUNNA NOOOKKKEE would destroy Biden plenty well by themselves.
So yeah, they'll be "diplomatic" about it but they'll simply ignore it. And then if Russia actually uses nukes they'll "be forced to respond". You're also an obvious vatnik moron because you're assuming Ukraine is some Western puppet because that's how you view relationships, but it's not. If Russia nukes them why would they submit to "pressure" to do anything but fight tooth and nail, to immediately attack Russian cities across the border? Why hold back at all? Why not use their nuclear waste to make dirty bombs and use those? UA actually has been trying to follow the rules overall, unlike Russia. They really DO have "gloves they could take off".
The rest of the world cannot allow Russia, or anyone else, to win just by threatening to go nuclear.
It's one thing to let Kim Jong Un keep his existing enslaved population, quite another to let him invade South Korea just because he threatens to nuke Seoul if he doesn't get his way.
Same thing with Putin. If you let him take Ukraine because otherwise he'll start lobbing nukes, then he can take Poland, Germany, and Finland too.
You don't understand the nuclear taboo and why it exists. No, I repeat, no state actor wants to live in a world where using nukes is actually on the able outside of defending the homeland. If Putinist R*ssia is actually moronic enough to do it anyway they sign their doom. Even if they "just" use a single tactical one, the consequences would be catastrophic for them. And that's assuming there would be no retaliation in kind. They would get isolated more than even Iran and North Korea, dropped by even Ch*na and Ind*a. New sanctions would be drawn up that would make the current ones look like a joke. Kid-sniffer Biden would no longer be able to veto R*ssia being designated a state sponsor of terrorism.
The current war fricked R*ssia for a decade at least, even if Pootin got couped and sanctions reversed. If they go nuclear they'll frick themselves for the rest of the next half-century at a minimum.
Have you considered that this forces the west to escalate, as well? So far they have been dumb but not outright irrational. Putin and Lavrov can't enjoy blow and hookers freely if Moscow is glassed
Putin is in a much more precarious position than any western leaders. It's reasonable to assume he will become desperate first. As to glassing Moscow, my point is it will be stopped before that. If he shows willingness to use nukes the war has to end immediately, politically speaking
>If he shows willingness to use nukes the war has to end immediately
You can frick right off. The US doesn't get to have anything it wants by flashing nuclear penis, and neither will Russia.
The madman theory is a legitimate thing in nuclear politics
But nuking won't win the war.
It might stop it in its tracks which, when you're losing, is the best you can hope for
>Problem is that for every visible victory like that you're almost forcing Putin to escalate.
"almost" lol. It's not forcing Putin to do jack shit. And he won't, because it'd be 100% suicide.
>And the only thing he has left is nukes.
No, he also has left a million propaganda options where he abandons Ukraine and paints it as some kind of partial victory over HATO contrary to your assertion this can't be done. Of course it can be done. If he stops this shit he'll be able to spend less on the army and more on pacifying important groups of the pop. He'll paper the whole thing over. And who is going to stage a coup? The military was just further wrecked! He has a loyal praetorian guard. He has the oligarchs either under control or bound to go down with him. NATO isn't actually going to just invade Russia. If he retreats back world will be done with him. That's WAY better odds then
>Initially it might be a nuke test on Russian soil just to send a message. This isn't some side conflict like Afghanistan where ultimately the Russians can claim some fabricated victory and move on. Putin has invested way too much political capital into this. He quite literally can't afford to lose this war
If he uses nukes he's done, and that's IF they work. Given how rotted out Russian military and tech is, it's very possible he uses nukes, and then they DON'T work. Or like, 1/4 work. And NOW they're well and truly fricked, because their big deterrent is fully exposed as well, AND they're shown as mad enough to try using it anyway. At that point it becomes legitimate to contemplate a US nuclear first strike.
Putin and co are survivalists. They can try to go nork or something. China won't want to see them completely collapse either. Nuking would be true suicide.
>Given how rotted out Russian military and tech is, it's very possible he uses nukes, and then they DON'T work. Or like, 1/4 work. And NOW they're well and truly fricked, because their big deterrent is fully exposed as well,
Even 1/4 of the Russian nuclear arsenal working is a significant deterrent. Even 1/10th is plenty.
I don't think anyone understands why the frick Russia made so goddamn many nuclear weapons. Unless there's an invasion by space aliens, there's no point in having an arsenal that large.
trips of moronation
>Even 1/4 of the Russian nuclear arsenal working is a significant deterrent. Even 1/10th is plenty.
No it isn't. They're down to like 1500 officially ("warheads in storage" are worthless, none of them can be made useful in time for a second strike). A first strike will take out a huge percentage of those, that's precisely why countries want so many. If 1/4 work (let alone 1/10) they're down to 375. 1st strike takes out another 75-90%. Now you're down to as little as ~40 working ones. Are ALL of them going at America? If not cut that further, but even if so proceed. The US does have BMD at this point, not enough for a huge saturation attack absolutely, but we're no longer talking a huge saturation attack. Can it deal with dozens? And will Russia have programmed ALL of the warheads for counter-value? That'd be unlikely, the default includes a ton that are counter force, ie., aimed at American military infrastructure including bases and our own ICBMs. But lots of THAT is very, very purposefully placed in the middle of nowhere. Part of the whole point of which is precisely to "absorb" inbound nukes far away from populations.
There is now a chance literally zero make it through to anything very important.
>I don't think anyone understands why the frick Russia made so goddamn many nuclear weapons. Unless there's an invasion by space aliens, there's no point in having an arsenal that large.
It's clearly you who don't understand the math here, what the modern forces look like, or why only having a fraction work is a big threat. You're exactly right they have a lot for a reason. But that reason isn't "well, maybe only 10% work before we even launch" it's to ensure enough get through even after lots are wiped. But if you START by cutting by a factor of 4-10? Buh-buy.
You're looking at it from the wrong direction. No one in power wants to lose NYC. I personally wouldn't mind, but Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer wouldn't risk it.
>You're looking at it from the wrong direction. No one in power wants to lose NYC. I personally wouldn't mind, but Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer wouldn't risk it.
Only Biden matters here, right or wrong he doesn't need any further permission to use our nuclear arsenal whenever he wants. But all of them would anyway if they think they won't lose NYC and that also there is a risk the US will get nuked and/or their careers destroyed anyway. They're capable of long term thinking as is our own military. If Russia is willing to use nukes offensively for conquest the domino effects are obvious if they get away with it. And if it turns out they show a major weakness in doing so proving objectively that only a fraction works, then the right decision to defend NYC is to act immediately. With the state of the Russian military I guarantee you the US probably knows exactly where 97% of Russian active nukes are located and are actively tracking and tailing most if not all of their functioning boomers. If the JCS can tell Biden with assurance that there is a limited window before Russia disperses where they can eliminate nearly everything and BMD + Russian failures can mop up the rest, and Russia is already engage in nuclear escalation? Sure we don't know exactly what Biden would decide, but that works both ways.
And there are other escalators too. Eastern Europe will demand military response out of self preservation. Now Russia nukes them too, etc etc.
>Only Biden matters here, right or wrong he doesn't need any further permission to use our nuclear arsenal whenever he wants.
Biden has pudding for brains and everyone knows it. He may be legally required to be the figurehead who launches the nukes, but he's not the one making the decisions.
He can't even read a TelePromTer without fricking it up.
CIA told the Russians through various contacts and channels that If Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, their nuclear capabilities would be rendered useless by such devastating and humiliating missile spam that the US wouldn’t need to escalate to the nuclear option.
I actually believe it now
>CIA told the Russians through various contacts and channels that If Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, their nuclear capabilities would be rendered useless by such devastating and humiliating missile spam that the US wouldn’t need to escalate to the nuclear option.
If the US could actually eliminate Russia's nukes conventionally then this is even easier. I don't think the US actually has that capability yet, while we experimented with HGVs and the like in the 60s/70s I'm pretty sure all our ICBMs/SLBMs are conventional and air breather hypersonics aren't ready yet. I don't think conventional cruise missiles, or new stealth bombers capable of getting where they need to go, would work either. And I don't think CIA would actually do any such reveal.
But if the capability is there then 100% it'd be immediately used in that case, there is no reason to hold back at all then if it's not even nuclear. And then if Russia counters with nuclear launch and any make it and work, well THEN it's still inviting a counter strike.
>you're almost forcing Putin to escalate
Or the Russians could literally just go home.
I wish
a homie
would
omg i can only be so hard
set off a nuke on russian soil??!! I am signing up for the Foreign Legion now!
ps. it's officer to you
Putin quite literally can't afford to win this war either.
New cope just dropped.
>a bunch of civilians with fresh r*ssian passports are gonna get tortured & slaughtered
God I hope.
Sadly it's more likely gonna be another
>Look! This dead civilian is surrounded by russian military gear!
>Clearly they were shot for accepting russian aid!
Though there is already some screaching about a collaborationist mayor being arrested.
>a bunch of civilians with fresh Russian passports are gonna get tortured & slaughtered
>happy crowds out on the streets
>babushkas tearing up and kissing Ukie soldiers
t-terrible optics guys
>slaughtered
They use that word ALOT. It's almost as if they can't think of people as anything but cattle
the russians are melting
Mattis would be proud
This swift and tempoful advance makes me wonder, where are all the forces that captured those areas to begin with? Are they all in Kherson?
Sure looks like it. Which is an incredibly moronic move but the ruskis did it anyway.
The Izyum direction was the main avenue of attack, then they were turned over into the severodonetsk and lysychansk front before the line stagnated. With heavy casualties along all these steps and the Kherson pivot it makes sense that it ended up so depopulated
hitler would be proud
is 'pontoon' an inherently funny word, or did it just become hilarious due to the events of the past few months?
I can no longer tell
English words containing double o are inherently funny.
'doom'?
troon
balloon
coon
soon
abandoon
I"m gonna clooose, uh oh I'm cloooooooooooooosing
Im gonna abandooooon
These gestures of good will are getting bit overwhelming.
USA engineers must be drolling over oportunity to get their hand on those.
Theu didn't have chance to disassemble Russian top secter hardware since cold war.
What can they do with all the info from Russian tech, since their own is already superior?
electronic countermeasures go from "jam" to "disable"
In the 80's some clown stole the Navy's encryption codes for the Sparrow and the Phoenix, and until new ROMs were made and distributed through the fleet, the Navy was afraid that if they shot one of those at anyone they would just drop from the sky by ECM.
Anon, they captured a Krasukha EW complex outside Kiev in March.
It was sent to the US for inspection already.
They’ll pick apart this radar as well.
I think they're starting to lose their appetite. After all, it's not like R*ssia is likely to ever deploy these again. It's really just more of a curiosity now, reverse-engineering it now doesn't really get them anything anymore.
Those poor Polish airport workers. So many overtime shifts.
Why don't they sabotage it before retreat?
this would take time they don't have and competence and forethought that they lack
because its not a retreat, its a rout
Where have we seen this before?
Youre right
except this time the US is not supporting the Soviet army and as it turns out it is not capable of advancing too far from its borders on its own capabilities
Russians are not Soviets and do not have the skill, morale, or raw manpower to die 2-for-1 and retake a strategically difficult position. Pic related is closer to the current situation from a force deployment standpoint.
Do you have any fricking idea how much of manpower and logistics Operation Ur anus actually took and how long it was being prepared?
I was at work for two hours what the frick happened?
>MOL-1
Space Force gooooooo
>muh nukes
threatening nukes over an aggressive conflict when the existence of your state is not in danger (the russian nuclear doctrine) would alienate russia not just from the west but also from india and china
nobody is interested in nuclear escalation because it affects everyone
A Zoopark-1 1L219 counter battery system was capped somewhere in Kharkiv recently
nice post ironic meme, zoomer
>Russian MOD vs UK tabloid
Anon, I...
The guy on the left is a Russian propagandist.
It's THAT bad.
>Rybar is now globohomosexual propaganda
Neat.
For better visualization, animated.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9ym5k/animated_map_of_ukrainian_counter_attack_in/
Russian armor protection working as intended
so, wait, what the frick happened?
Troops riding the BVM got sprayed down with fire, with the tankers being fricking oblivious, then driving into a tree trying to take a corner because they can fricking see where they're going, injuring whoever was left hanging on for dear life?
This is another one that would be great with a Benny Hill Show soundtrack.
i gotchu senpai
https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1568282616373059586
The memes really write themselves.
The original video does have it.
https://twitter.com/praisethesteph/status/1568283061644627970
OOF
>injuring whoever was left
if they took a fricking tree to the face they're not just "injured"
>if they took a fricking tree to the face they're not just "injured"
I was being generous, because they probably already have been sprayed down by AR or MG fire before then; getting impaled by a branch wouldn't be pleasant either though
what the fugg :DDD
You can even see Zs painted on teh era on the front of the turret so it is def a Russian tank
NO WAY
Nyet panik. Nyet panik! NEYT PANIK!!
https://twitter.com/Gadzhega/status/1566531398885859328?s=20&t=kCrP5rA8k2CFKY6qLNK-VA
Is this a warcrime?
possibly falls under "cruel and unusual" punishment, but a rather low-tier one, considering
>I was made to eat a Ritz cracker piled with hot sauce back in junior high
It's not even hot sauce. Mild-medium salsa at best.
And kind of an attack where you hurt the prisoner for no reason is a war crime even if you just slap him lightly after he surrenders.
War?
I just want to say I love you anons. The level of shitposting and stuff coming out of this war is mind blowing. I never expected this level of entertainment to happen back in February.