How long do you think the war in Ukraine will last?
My gut feeling is at least three years until either Russia or Ukraine will drop dead from exhaustion. My bet is that Russia will collapse.
How long do you think the war in Ukraine will last?
How long do you think the war in Ukraine will last?
My gut feeling is at least three years until either Russia or Ukraine will drop dead from exhaustion. My bet is that Russia will collapse.
2 years.
It really depends on what happens with the political system in Russia. The Ukraine will presumably fight to the last man, especially given recent atrocities, but Russia theoretically has a lot more troops to conscript into holding the stalemate. The real question is whether the Russian plutocrats and military are going to continue to accept the huge (personal) financial and strategic weaknesses that the conflict is producing, and the pressure is probably mounting for him and his generals to shit or get off the pot. Also Putin's health is probably fading pretty fast by the look of his recent appearances and there are probably quite a few eager potential heirs who may or may not have a grand plan for ending the war one way or another if they can oust him.
That said, Putin would probably already be gone if the FSB was supportive of leadership change and they likely want to maintain stability during the coming long term war and economic downturn, so we'll have to wait and see.
Gonna be interesting to see what actually pans out though, hopefully its something decisive.
>Also Putin's health is probably fading pretty fast by the look of his recent appearances
Some new video came up recently? Link?
>Russia theoretically has a lot more troops to conscript into holding the stalemate
the moment Russia will conscript from "rich"/European regions of the country will be the moment the country-wide riots happen.
5 years would be good, have the west 100% off Russian resources, and never again to return. Then Russia can be a north Korea like nothing state that doesn't exist in the west.
If it balkanise, then maybe st Petersburg can be a Baltic nation like Estonia , so the Baltic coast is cleaned up and civilised.
The black sea could do with civilising also, but that would take turkey giving Ukraine real long-term support to sort it out, and the Turks don't have the brains or vision for stability
>How long do you think the war in Ukraine will last?
Long enough to get Biden into a second term. After that, they'll either find a reason to stop sending aid to Ukraine (which will be bullshit) or give them enough to finish the fricking job.
raperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperaperape
hi pajeet
frick ya mudda
Black person
I hope the war ends soon so they can release the rest of the /k/ino
There's no way Russia is making it 3 years at this rate. Pic related is based on casualty numbers from the US government.
Thing is most of the deaths on both sides were when the lines of battle were significantly more blurred and less static, and Russians willingly more aggressive to take territory.
In effect they have stabilised at front lines, and the loss is probably lower for both sides as of now, at least till literally every single squad in Ukraine gets a quadcopter with a grenade, and Russians start taking obscene losses from them, anyway
Imagine every squad dropping just one grenade with a 50% change to 200 and 300 each and every day. You'd be done by the week.
Iran-Iraq war is probably our closest parallel and that lasted nearly a decade. However, if Ukraine doesn't counter invade, they may be able to achieve status quo anti in a year.
Can't answer your question OP but if it helps, the people who claim to know such things say Ukraine will be be close to pushing Russia back across their border by years end.
Mazel tov.
The high intensity warfare will probably end in a month or two, but low intensity shit will be going on for years i would think
Until Biden leaves office
The war is surging gas prices which makes the green energy campaign more attractive.
There's a popular joke in my country right now:
>Russia cut off our gas, so now we pay 30% less than the European average
>When are they cutting off petrol, I'd like to be able to drive my car again?
Too bad our vatnik coup went through and their first job was to cut off every non-Russian gas source and grovel in front of Russia. Soon we'll be as fricked as Hungary if not more.
Which country?
Frantsiya, Paris Oblast.
What? What happened? What "coup" are you talking about?
Probably the US after the Republicans stage another coup in 2025, this time it'll be successful.
The only question is will that coup be lead by Trump or DeSantis.
>vatnik coup
Italy or Bulgaria.
>cheap gas from non-Russian sources, government has the power to just randomly cut gas deals benefiting the country
Bulgaria.
Langley, Virginia
Eglin Air Force Base
What happened to July data?
Why the weird date picks? 25th then 16th, 6th, then 27th, then 1st?
Makes me think liberals don't think very clearly.
Learn how to read a fricking graph, you moronic b***h.
So its down to pre russia bidenflation? Used to play less than 20 to fill on e85 under trump now its 40-50.
It will end as soon as Ukraine has the equipment to silence Russias artillery and then ammas the tonks to roll into occupied territory.
Depends on the Caucuses, Nagorno Karabakh, Tajikistan and Krgyzstan, wildcard shit in the Sakhalin, and to a lesser extent the situation in Ladakh, Myanmar and Taiwan. Without any of the above going breasts up, and assuming the EU is reasonably successful with weaning themselves off Russian gas, I'd say they've got at least another 6 six years before they're able to make a decent push again. Stalematey and grinding losses until that point. This is assuming they sit around a $60 - 70bn budget, representative of around 5% of GDP, and pretty much give up on having a navy.
homie, the war is already over. The line has barely moved in the last month and both sides are only going to get even more exausted. By the end of the year both sides will finally come to accept that its over since Russias economy will tank and ukrainians will starve.
The conclusion is simple Ukraine will lose 20% of its teritory and got bombed to shit while Russia embarassed itself on the world stage and lost most of its military equipment.
Was it worth it for any of the sides?
No.
The rich israelites in the US gov have won while moronic slavs butcher eachother nothing new.
>Was it worth it for any of the sides?
I mean, the other option for Ukraine would have been to roll over and practically cease to exist as a sovereign nation
>Ukraine
>a sovereign nation
No sovereign nation would destroy their country like ukrops did last 30 years.
YOU JEALOUS OF THEM, MANDICKSUCKER?? XAXAXAXAXAXAXAXAXAXA!!!!!!!
>We lie to deceive ourselves, to
comfort another; we lie out of compassion,
we lie out of shame, to encourage,
to hide our misery, we lie for honesty.
We lie for freedom. Lying is a form
of Serbian patriotism and confirmation of
our innate intelligence. We lie
creatively, imaginatively, inventively.
No wonder they love Russians so much.
How many pics of men kissing do you have saved on your hard drive, freak?
Vatniks are utterly obsessed with homosexuals. I think the lady doth protest too much.
>Posts a picture of a Russian sergeant and his new private
if by your admission they were not sovereign then it looks really bad for the 'russian world' and the consequences of being part such a club
>and ukrainians will starve.
Ukrs are currently flooding Poland with grain, dumb ass.
>starving in Europe
unachievable without communism or the British parliament
>Russia embarassed itself on the world stage and lost most of its military equipment.
Were they really expecting to show off their military when literally everyone still makes fun of slav shit even before the war started? How they still use old shit? What were they thinking?
mbout tree hundred 'n fiddy weeks
I am Russian and I think it will continue for 3 years at least.
I think it may go all the way to 2025 and culminate in some lame world half-war with US-China in the background and Russia ends up with a broken anus from NATO piling on them.
>How long do you think the war in Ukraine will last?
NATO will prolong it as long as possible to cripple Russian as much as possible.
If m777 don't work,
we will send HIMARS, if HIMARS don't work,
we will send cruise missiles, if they don't work
we will send ballistic missiles.
This war is about hurting Russia as long and as hard as possible.
This anon gets it, why stop hurting Russia when you can't lose any american troops?
Noooo i don't geeeeeeeet it
I was called vatBlack person and russian shill on 5 separate occasions for stating this fact.
Don't get me wrong I want Ukraine to win, but that is secondary objective.
Even though I do look forward seeing news writing that "Ukrainian" "Tomahawk style" "wonder weapons" hitting Russian-China pipelines and train tracks.
At current levels of expenditure Russia is going to run out of currency reserves in 15 months. Its economy is expected to shrink at least 2% this year. We are already reaching the point where Russia's economic capacity to wage war is questionable.
and that is why we will see slow grinding war in next year, boil frog alive by increasing temperature bit by bit
because it costs money, risks deadly escalation, will cause yet another migrant crises this time sparked by a more desperate starvation, risks increased sino Russian cooperation, and forces you and your allies to focus on Eastern Europe and its decrepit moronic threat rather than on the pacific?
What about humiliating Russia didn't you understand? This has been the best chance to remove them from the map for years and they were dumb enough to give us the chance.
>costs money
Those weapons are filling their original purpose--war in Europe
>forces allies to focus on a decrepit threat
The plan was always a 2 theater war in ww3, the US/Japan/SK/Taiwan/Aus/NZ vs China (and uh North Korea as a side attraction) and US/NATO vs Russia/Warsaw Pact. Now? We're guaranteeing that Europe can handle Russia by itself at this point, and dealing with them now is cheaper than dealing with them later. Knock out Russia now = more focus on China later.
>will cause yet another migrant crises
Europe will deal with it like it dealt with Belarus in 2021.
Žižek can seethe all he wants about it: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-unequal-treatment-of-refugees-exposed-by-ukraine-by-slavoj-zizek-2022-03
>risks deadly escalation
puccia won't do shit.
>because it costs money
The degradation of one of the main threats to NATO is probably enough to justify an equal reduction in defense spending
>risks deadly escalation
How? Russia doesn't have any means to escalate the conflict and they are only getting weaker.
>will cause yet another migrant crises this time sparked by a more desperate starvation
There's already a migrant crisis and it will be even worse if more of Ukraine is turned into flat rubble.
> risks increased sino Russian cooperation
You're overestimating Chinese sentiments for Russia. They will exploit the situation to their advantage, but they are not friends and never will be.
>and forces you and your allies to focus on Eastern Europe and its decrepit moronic threat rather than on the pacific?
The forces deployed to Europe aren't the same forces deployed to the Pacific. This is a matter of force structure that would take years to change in any case.
>> risks increased sino Russian cooperation
>You're overestimating Chinese sentiments for Russia.
The Chinks hate Russia MORE THAN THE BALTIC DOES. Roll that around in your mouth a little. They sent the russkies a couple thousand obsolete tanks to keep the Russians bleeding even harder (and suck up Nato ATGMs at a net political/capital profit), and they're laughing all the way to the bank.
>They sent the russkies a couple thousand obsolete tanks
no, they didn't, stop regurgitating this bullshit
Because high chances of backfiring particularly if the political systems in Europe can't take it, and governments begin to fall or give up. Ukraine is not that popular for most Europeans to take big hits on their energy bills. A couple of governments have already fallen and it hasn't truly started yet. There are limits to what Europeans are willing to endure.
>There are limits to what Europeans are willing to endure.
All conflict relevant countries have long grudges towards russia so it requires pretty exceptional problems for it to go over the tolerances.
Relevant European countries are France, Italy and Germany. Full stop.
Those are just shitters doing their things. Who cares about them.
The conflict relevant countries are UK, Poland, Turkey, and possibly baltics
>idiot thinks a bunch of smaller nations coming together with massive opposition to Russia wont keep Ukraine going.
>balts,finland, sweden, slovakia, czechia, netherlands, poland, romania, UK
They may be small, but that still remains quite a coalition once you start adding them up. Who gives a frick about the French and German cowards? They are not going to stop support from others. And then i havent even mentioned Uncle Sam
They are totally irrelevant to the conflict in Ukraine. As long as Poland, the Baltics and the UK (incidentally the countries with the biggest grudges against Russia) are in favor of continuing the conflict then the Burgers have a clear corridor to deliver as many weapons as they like. Hell the UK is training EVEN MORE Ukrainian soldiers now than they were before the war.
If you check a flight radar website you'll notice that US and UK C-130s have been running non-stop deliveries every day to Poland where the Poles local logistic network takes over.
Only east europe
West europe is more questionable in that regard
>A couple of governments have already fallen
Such as?
>There are limits to what Europeans are willing to endure.
This is cute. The Russians seem to forget just how cynical Westerners are. Consider the following:
>European winter isn't cold enough to kill healthy adults, it's the elderly who are at risk
>One of the biggest problems faced by European countries is their aging population
>Those same elderly people also hold a considerable amount of the country's wealth
>If they were to die off then a massive amount of capital would be freed up in the economy, along with a reduction in social spending (fun fact: the biggest drains on the welfare state are elderly boomers rather than pakis and nogs)
>This would help to lessen the impact of the incoming recession (which has been building for years before the Ukraine conflict, mind you)
>Western governments can say (with total honestly) "Those evil warmongering Russians were the ones who killed your parents"
>"Incidentally, would you be in favor of increased military spending?"
Never let a good crisis go to waste as they say...
you're right but for the reasons you stated. we're out of afghanistan, the MIC needs something to do, clear out old inventory, test new shit, and justify new government contracts.
Hurting Russia is a nice frill maybe, to some people. Mostly it's just about making sure the war machine has stuff to do, and the war bux keep flowing.
y'all need to stop thinking about motivations in terms of competing nation states. It's not the 19th century anymore
This anon gets it. Throw sand into russias eyes, then kick them in the balls. Kick them in kidneys while they are down and shove them down when they are trying to get up. Then finally shank them in the pelvic floor are and glutes so walking will be forever painful. That's based as frick. Thanks america!
itty bitty kitty breasts
Same as North/South Korea, it won't end until the government cardinally changes in either of countries. I bet it's more likely there would be just demilitarized zone on the occupied territory, stop of hostilities with Russia claiming partial victory of achieving demilitarization of eastern Ukraine but not relinquishing claims to Crimea at least. Which would leave them in diplomatic deadlock forever.
who cares
The war could be longer if they had a ceasefire or something for a year
The challenge is to make the Ukrainians beat the Russians themselves, which means it takes like a year or two, perhaps more, to completely Westernize the military.
Oil prices are plummetting right now. Maybe you can expect it going up for a bit for some market correction but after that it would go down again to the pre-war prices. This time, however, they're selling their goods on a 25% discount to India, China, and soon Turkey. Russia would still survive, but it's a very dangerous situation for them, especially if something happens and the price per barrel hit below $60.
2.50 a gallon. That’s the price that is normal. You say gas is dropping when 4.00 is current. Europeans suck.
I will give it until the end of the year, blackouts in europe, no gas, complete collapse of western will to support will cause a domino effect in Ukraine. When they collapse it will happen suddenly and within a couple of days. Watch for the news of zelensky leaving the country - its the first sign its over.
>blackouts in europe, no gas,
Why hasn't that happened yet? This post is Vatnik Wars Episode 4: A new Cope.
Yes, vatnik gas conundrum. Gas makes 20% of Russian GDP and Germans are "funding" war effort in Ukraine, but gas is getting turned off any second now.
2 more weeks
I find it amusing when russian primary hope is that the support wanes, when there is an recent example of USA and friends doing a war for 20 fricking years with their own people and people generally just forgetting about it.
I honestly bet that even if the war ended tomorrow, USA would just keep sending weapons because why not?
I agree that the US basically will never stop arming Ukraine. There’s arguably more relative benefit to arming them in peacetime than in war - same logic as why it was better to create NATO rather than simply joining European wars.
>you see Boris, if there is a power shortage in Italy or whatever, this means Ukraine is defeated and Russia destroyed NATO
Yes. Ukraine can only stand thanks to western support. Ukrainian MIC is completely destroyed and relies on what the west is willing to give to them.
>I will give it until the end of the year, blackouts in europe, no gas
^Closest to correct ITT. It's going to be over by Fall. Winter demand for Russian natural gas dictates that the conflict is over and gas service restored before Winter time demand ramps up. Russia will "win," whatever that will wind up looking like. Zelensky will not remain in power of any part of Ukraine.
lol
>Yep, these are both going in my delusional war tourist screen cap folder
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. No.
Sorry /misc/scum, but it doesn't work like that. There's alternatives to Russian gas, even if some of those alternatives are "rationing". And the Western public is completely prepared to pay those prices if it means avoiding WW3, which is both how it's being sold as to the public and likely the actual correct take.
It's pretty clear if Russia gets their way it will embolden both them and China to do something moronic that pushes us finally over the edge, and that simply can't be allowed. We learned from WW2 and we are finally applying that learning to oriental despots.
Russia will NEVER have leverage with resources over Europe again. You might be able to make our lives awkward for a season, but in return your lives will be shiity for ever. Hear endeth the lesson.
I'm hoping for ASA fricking P so monkey will launch the nukes and kill all the fans on here simping for some prostitute politician.
Fricking incels are worse than vatniks.
gays not fans, stuck phone posting because sometimes I have to touch grass for a living
until Putin dies
Neither side would benefit from a peace teatry at the moment. Russia cant stop because it will look bad and it will cause political unrest, maybe even the collapse of the current government. They need a solid victory to walk away as winners. Also Ukraine has manpower problems, so fighting a war of attrition isnt a terrible idea- if they can keep inflicting losses sooner or later they will be able to advance. On the other hand the general perception is that time is on Ukraines side, and that if they can manage to hold on some more sooner or later the war will get too expensive for Russia and they will have to give up, and then they will be able to take back not just donbass but Crimea as well.
My guess is, another 6 months.
>How long do you think the war in Ukraine will last?
Until Russia surrenders, or cucks get into office and pull the plug on supporting Ukraine.
Remember, the entire point is to give Ukraine enough support to bleed Russia to death without losing, but not enough support to win. Proxy wars are simply how we fight, to avoid a nuclear exchange. No one is nuking Moscow because a bunch of GI's got killed in Vietnam, and no one is nuking Washington because a bunch of VDV drowned in Ukraine.
If Russia didn't want to play this game, they should stop pretending to be a world a power. Sucks for Ukraine though.
Why is Putin standing on the Nato side?
He was a nato puppet all along
>Why is Putin standing on the Nato side?
Because he's a deep cover NATO agent. You think we'd recruit nearly as many suckers into NATO if we didn't have Putin doing overtime to push em into our arms?
Till either:
>Putin Dies or is removed (highly unlikely)
>Zelensky is killed
>Westerm Support dries up
Even if Russia totally occupies everything tomorrow, Ukraine will most likely continue low level insurgency till they're gone. The atrocities ensured that Ukraine can't accept what would come with surrender.
On the other hand, if Russia leaves, the loss of face is worse than the fall of the USSR. This is the worst possible blunder on the international stage of this decade and we're not even half way done. Frankly it would've been better if they attacked a NATO member cause at least it would be over already.
>Till either:
Lmao neither of this will result in war ending you mongoloid.
>you'll see when Russia will cut the european gas supply
Well Russia will also see when gas money won't come in anymore, and don't talk about selling it to China, they would need years to change their coal-based energy supply to gas-based.
Untill winter and germany betrays everyone for russian gas
I've seen comments in social media where vatcopers are still - STILL - claiming Russia hasn't used its best troops and equipment in Ukraine and that's why the war is draggin out.
Just where is this mysterious elite force supposed to be located now?
>pic
God I want her so much.
Russia will keep pouring men and resources for years (up to a decade like their Afghanistan war) until and unless Ukraine keeps hitting Russia on its own turf.
When Russia starts losing men on its own soil, including strikes on villages and towns, then you'll see Russia asking for ceasefires.
Ukraine would be smart to send commando units by sea to the Northwest Caucasus, and start attacking Russians there like a government office. If they could drop some bombs from air on the stadium in Sochi that would be a huge move too.
>My bet is that Russia will collapse
Chechnya/Dagestan etc. dragged on for ages, the Russian people have a high tolerance for being told what to do and putting up with shit being shovelled down their throats. We'll get a stalemate eventually, Ukraine will lose territory, Russia will be further isolated, and nobody will be happy.
Guys? How can she she keep getting away with this? She can't keep getting away with this, can she?