How likely is the war in Ukraine to turn into Iran-Iraq War II: Black Sea Electric Bogaloo?

How likely is the war in Ukraine to turn into Iran-Iraq War II: Black Sea Electric Bogaloo?
Can we realistically expect for the front to start moving again any time soon?
How likely are the Chinese to intervene by starting to send arms to the Russians in order to force them into deeper and deeper dependency, and geopolitically troll the West by making them burn through hundreds of billion dollars worth of aid, which in turn won't be able to be send to Taiwan, for a conflict with little tangible gain?

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  1. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >How likely are the Chinese to intervene by starting to send arms to the Russians in order to force them into deeper and deeper dependency

    Zero. The Chinks have been trying to get the Russians to end this war pretty much since the day it began. It's rocking the boat and they don't like it.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >The Chinks have been trying to get the Russians to end this war pretty much since the day it began.
      You have no clue about what they are blasting among themselves, do you? Changs were 200% backing up this invasion with official ccp propaganda portraying it as "poor little brother got lead stray by the filthy western prostitute. Now it is up to the big brother to give it a good beating and return little brother to the family"

      They abso-fricking-lutely wanted to draw direct parallels to what they want to do to Taiwan. With their invasion supposedly following up in the coming years when zigger cause chaos in east euro. They only pulled back on the vatnik cheer leading recently because associating with losers in losing face kek

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        This anon gets it real fricking well. The Chinese frankly were relying on Russia succeeding and quick for the sole purpose of being able to use it as a mirror of Taiwan for Chinese domestic consumption, and to set up a future situation where Russia fricks around with NATO to tie up US NATO commitments while they frick around with Taiwan.

        The embarrassment and loss of face from hitching their wagon to such a loser is the bigger reason by far why they're less gung-ho on the international stage as of late, pure and simple.

        Face culture is the single biggest reason China is likely to be a slightly more modern tech-relevant Russia when it tries to do modern war.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          The Chinks assumed Putin would go in, secure the Donbas and then it would all be over. A quick win and a black eye for the west. But we all saw how that went.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        Well put. I remember Chinkoids cheering for Russia at the start. I remember some Chink in Odessa shaming the bugs for supporting an expansionist, imperialist war of agression that is against everything China supposedly stands for. As the time passes and Russia kept fricking up Chinese forgot about Russia completely.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >direct parallels to what they want to do to Taiwan

        Wrong.
        Taiwan is a breakaway from china, just like LDNR are from Ukraine. Supporting the Russian position undermines China's case for Taiwan.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          You got that in reverse.

          Taiwan is the Union, China is CSA.

          The PLA is the Confederacy if they rolled into New York and Chicago and conquered everything up to Maine

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            also re: some other responses here, i dont see it becoming a national holy war. from what ive learned is that russians under age 35 got a taste of economic freedom and interaction with the west. russians have a strong persona, and are from what i hear generally gritting their teeth and at least publicly saying "well.. its a bad situation, but i'll stick with what the government says..." while some young people even publicly say this war is bullshit. but one year and onwards russia is not going to make headway and if ukraine uses this influx of serious US armour and tech appropriately (and they haven't been utterly drained of manpower already by attrition) they may push back on russia up to their original borders pre 2014. point being IMHO 70% chance russia will collapse on itself especially if putin dies somehow within the next 3 years. 15% chance ukraine will steamroll russia really fast and russia will beg for peace unexpectedly while putin remains in power, 15% chance russia will steamroll into ukraine with trained mobiks while the US stuff hasn't been organized or assembled yet and ukraine will beg for peace immediately.

            this is a great example of why i hate analogies. this is a really really bad analogy.

            • 1 year ago
              Anonymous

              >ukraine will beg for peace immediately.
              I don’t understand how you can watch what happens to the occupied ukrainians, watch the cities in ruins, listen to the ukrainians, and not understand this will be a fight to the death, to the bitter end even in defeat, for Ukraine.
              And Zelensky can’t sign a peace deal without getting instantly coup by thousands of furious soldiers that paid too much already.

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                i know theyre mostly taking it seriously, but i think the numbers of how many women/children or men too escaped ukraine as refugees have come out or remotely accurate numbers of dead and wounded from combat. i feel like ukraine is getting wiser by the day, but from what i recently heard in a very candid and informed interview i believe, ukraine had a lot of casualties in the first 6 months, and soviet style thinking of holding a line and ignoring targets of opportunity for "big pushes" pre-planned way in advance still dominate. i think ukraine's actual numbers of soldiers are not that great, while russia may be throwing in mobiks haphazardly but i believe they are keeping back a significant number for serious training. russia is both very stupid, but very cunning and not as stupid as you'd like to think. theyre not a meme, and while obviously they left a lot to be desired initially i think they do realize they fricked up to a degree and need to seriously reorganize shit. please dont say "two more weeks" but i think there will be a strong spring offensive from russia.
                though obviously i could be wrong about all this. who knows.

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                I’m not talking about the russians, they could have a 3 million army in reserve ready to roll on Ukraine, it’s unrelated to the objection to your claim that ”Ukraine will beg for peace immediatly”. It was the erroneous mindset the Russians had last year and they paid dearly for it. Ukraine will not surrender immediatly, and will continue to fight furiously even if they are suddently and magically defeated again and again on the battlefield.
                They are furious. Do you understand what it means?

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                i guess. but i dont really see what their emotional state has to do with them getting steamrolled and negotiating something. or simply getting steamrolled and losing it all. i believe their country is falling apart, and while russia is also falling apart its 4x the population and has way more infrastructure and military buildup. regardless im still much more likely chance (minimum 70% from my amateur POV) saying russia will collapse internally first from economic issues, hatred of the moronic war/casualties and/or putin dying or being killed.

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                It’s been a whole year, I don’t see any sign of the Ukrainian army getting steamrolled or the country collapsing.

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                Absolutely 'tarded

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        China believed Putin. Turns out Putin wasn't telling them the truth. Its very clear they feel he's made fools of them.

        Parallels with Taiwan were made but they stopped pushing them, again, when it became apparent what they'd been told wasn't what was happening. You may notice that the Ukrainians didn't actually welcome the Russians as liberators as predicted. This is giving the whole reuniting supposed brothers thing a bad name.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        Wrong. What a collection of moronic countryside NEETs with down syndrome do is completely irrelevant to the country at large. Not that you would know, because you know jack shit about China to begin with.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Nah, Chinks want control of Russia via debt traps. They're just sitting back and waiting.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      I don't think the odds are zero and I agree with

      https://i.imgur.com/ArPYcaQ.jpg

      >The Chinks have been trying to get the Russians to end this war pretty much since the day it began.
      You have no clue about what they are blasting among themselves, do you? Changs were 200% backing up this invasion with official ccp propaganda portraying it as "poor little brother got lead stray by the filthy western prostitute. Now it is up to the big brother to give it a good beating and return little brother to the family"

      They abso-fricking-lutely wanted to draw direct parallels to what they want to do to Taiwan. With their invasion supposedly following up in the coming years when zigger cause chaos in east euro. They only pulled back on the vatnik cheer leading recently because associating with losers in losing face kek

      . That being said I think the odds of the chinsects providing Russia overt weapon aid (as opposed to the trickle of shells through North Korea as a launderer) are low. The US loudly announcing they have evidence that they plan to do it is basically giving them an 'out.' It's saying to Pooh-bear "hey, we know you're considering doing this, don't make us actually retaliate." The bugmen can save face and say 'we were never going to do that and don't tell us what to do, gwailo,' which they've already done. Whether or not they'll decide to risk it is still, though, an open question in my opinion.

    • 1 year ago
      Strange Love

      Chinks don't like the war as it disrupts business. They are opportunits. However, by now these disruptions are likely irreversible anyway, so by that logic confrontation will become the more attractive option, especially in lights of an US-Chyna confrontation becoming more and more likely anyway.

  2. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >for a conflict with little tangible gain?
    What a stupid thing to say. Maintaining the world order is the most important foreign policy issue for the US. Russia will be out of Ukraine completely by February 24, 2024. Screencap this

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      TWO MORE WEEKS

  3. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >Can we realistically expect for the front to start moving again any time soon?
    It's mud season again and probably will be till late march. I predict what we've seen before: lots and lots of nothing, then suddenly a sweeping advance as a front cracks.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      fronts are fortified now and both armies are fire-centric.
      Both VSRF and AFU are lacking mechanized units.
      there won't be any breakthroughs.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        Very wrong

  4. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Let's see if ukes pick up the pace in summer like last year. Russia has the meat, but instead of rushing to Berlin they can only hope to ride eternal, shiny and chrome, while ukes will have actual IFV's for sweeping attacks.

  5. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    the chinese wont arm russia. they'll arm north korea, who will then send the newly equipped troops to ukraine.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      North Korea would literally be the last country to send troops to Ukraine. Not because they're opposed to it (although I suspect that they are because it's painting a giant target on everyone's back), but because any soldiers deployed to Ukraine will be exposed to the rest of the world and the world will be exposed to them. A KPA rifleman who knows just how much better even dirt poor Ukrainian farmers, with their washing machines and iPhones, have life compared to him is an existential threat to the regime.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        There are North Koreans that work a road in Russia, china, other Asian countries, and more. They even work(ed) in places like Poland at shipyards. North Koreans that work abroad, be it hard labor or more suspicious operations like restaurants that only take certain types of cash are under tight supervision and are only allowed minimal contact with non-Koreans. They’re paid little as most of the money goes to the government. IIRC you can’t work certain jobs abroad unless you have a family, so you’re less likely to defect.

  6. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >Can we realistically expect for the front to start moving again any time soon?
    Yes. The front stabilized for winter, because winter is a shitty time for offensives. Not impossible, but shitty. It's also going to be pretty static during the mud season, which is basically March & April in the spring (and October & November in autumn). So, expect the front to start moving in late April, early June.

    >How likely are the Chinese to intervene by starting to send arms to the Russians in order to force them into deeper and deeper dependency, and geopolitically troll the West by making them burn through hundreds of billion dollars worth of aid, which in turn won't be able to be send to Taiwan, for a conflict with little tangible gain?
    Very unlikely. Sanctions from the West against China would be painful to the average Westerner in the short term, but very beneficial in the long-term, while they'd utterly devastate China. China's cheap consumer goods are a convenience for the West, albeit one that in the long run harms the average worker by reducing job availability; everything the west actually NEEDS is either made in the West or in its close allies such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. Conversely the West is the overwhelming majority of the market China can sell to; if the West closes off its economy (aka about 3/4 of the world's GDP) from China, China's economy collapses and they descend into another of their famous civil wars where tens of millions of Chinamen die. Maybe hundreds of millions this time. Xi Jinping is stupid, but not THAT stupid.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >China's economy collapses and they descend into another of their famous civil wars where tens of millions of Chinamen die
      God I hope so

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      dont forget that the five biggest food importers for china are like completely west pilled, and whatever china lies about their food reserves they wont have enough to make it three months in reality before people are starving

  7. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >"China furious at Russia over leaked arms talks. Beijing understands that this will destroy its "image of neutrality" and harm relations with Europe and the United States" - The Economist

    The answer is China wanted nothing to do with this when it started, and now wants even less because it serves as little other than a brand threat.

  8. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >burn through hundreds of billion dollars worth of aid
    The Chinese are moronic but they're probably smart enough to know this isn't a thing. The US (the most principle concern for China in the Pacific) just hasn't spent nearly enough defense in dollars or equipment to make this feasible, and it's doubtful at this point that Chinese weapons would significantly eat into lent equipment at a rate that would suddenly make that the case.

    Not to harp on "muh poor thirdies" but this premise is 100% based in not appreciating just how much shit America has at its disposal (literally, just shit that is waiting around for disposal or deactivation) and how much money they can throw at shit to get more in a pinch.

  9. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    If Russia gets hijacked by Christian whackos I will die laughing

  10. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    my theory is, when the war started and the russians shockingly discovered that a good portion of their military spending was being embezzled and sent to Swiss bank accounts, the Chinese panicked and started purging their military to prevent a similar disaster. they're probably very busy making sure their stockpiles of weapons, fuel and ammunition are actually real (not just the chinese, but a lot of other countries as well) purges like this take time, their military won't be ready for many years.

  11. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    I think we'll know the answer by the end of this year.
    Russia's "winter offensive" turned out to be literally nothing and now the British MoD is saying that Russia's current goal is no longer to take any large amounts of territory and instead just degrade Ukraine's military by means of attrition.
    If the Ukie counteroffensive happens and is successful then we prob won't have a Iraq-Iran tier war. But if it fails I definitely see it happening

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      This only works under the assumption that Western assistance doesn't change from current levels, but throughout the whole war, the rate of Western aid to Ukraine has only trended up, and they are slowly but steadily gaining more capabilities through the delivery of Western tanks and IFVs and new systems like GLSDB that puts the entire southern front in striking range.

      I have the feeling that if Bakhmut falls, it's going to be a repeat of Severodonetsk. The Russians spent too much resources and manpower to exploit their gains and force a real breakthrough and have to curb all offensive actions for the next few months.

      And then Ukraine, which still hasn't fully committed its reserves, will either hit Kreminna or drive for Melitopol while the Russians are in the middle of their second operational pause.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >gaining more capabilities
        wrong.
        AFU is now a mostly mobilized army with no professional soldiers left.
        being mobilized during wartime means even basic training was shortened and your officers out of the reserve were taught during Soviet times.

        Iran and Iraq also had latest tech, but didn't know how to utilize it.
        just look who's getting those new Western tanks.
        freshly created brigades filled with new mobilized recruits.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          >AFU is now a mostly mobilized army with no professional soldiers left.
          Are you genuienly moronic?
          >just look who's getting those new Western tanks.
          People who receive first class Western training? In Western combined arms doctrine?

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            are you genuinely moronic and still believe in the first class Western training myth?
            you know those Western trainers talk to the press and press officers aren't always fast enough to censor them?

            >LANGFITT: Ball says a key was giving soldiers one-on-one attention. He adds that trainees were eventually able to hit the target around 80% of the time from various firing positions. In the United Kingdom, all new soldiers typically go through a 14-week basic training course, but the British are giving the Ukrainians just five weeks. When I asked a trainer about this, a military press officer intervened.
            >
            >And if you could have them for more time, how much extra time would you like with them?
            >
            >UNIDENTIFIED PRESS OFFICER: He won't answer that question.
            >
            >LANGFITT: Why not?
            >
            >UNIDENTIFIED PRESS OFFICER: 'Cause it's subjective.
            >
            >LANGFITT: It's subjective?
            >
            >UNIDENTIFIED PRESS OFFICER: Mmm hmm. It's not our decision.
            >
            >LANGFITT: Indeed, it's the choice of the Ukrainian military, which remains desperate to get new troops onto the battlefield, to replenish the many thousands who've already died or been injured. One veteran Ukrainian soldier told me he thinks new recruits still need at least 10 weeks of training. But, he added, in this reality, it's a race against time.
            https://www.npr.org/2022/10/14/1129001652/the-british-military-is-giving-ukrainian-civilians-a-crash-course-in-soldiering

            • 1 year ago
              Anonymous

              Why do you morons still post this shit? We know that you're trying to imply western training is useless or should be cancelled.

            • 1 year ago
              Anonymous

              >are you genuinely moronic and still believe in the first class Western training myth?
              5 weeks of British training is better than what most Russian soldiers have. Also
              >"These tanks are not just about learning to drive them and fight them, it’s about learning to weave them together with armoured infantry to create a combined arms effect ... so (the Ukrainians) can make a proper advance against the Russians"
              He also said
              >Mr Wallace said he would consider further donations of tanks to Ukraine and added: “Let’s see how these get stitched together and become a combined force, I don’t rule anything out.”
              Yes, they are training them in combined arms

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                Also, Americans are teaching Ukrainian forces in combined arms warfare
                https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/

                let's do combined arms.
                how many brigades do you need to breakthrough some fortified position?
                given those current announcements that's like 2 rookie battalions that will know combined arms.

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                Thise announcements were at the end of 2022,which was 3 months ago. Usa alone will train a battalion a month, let's say Ukraine decided to push in end of spring when ground is solid enough. That's 4 battalions trained to level USA wants, UK trained 10000 in 2022(let's assume they all already went to replace losses on front) and wants to train 20000 soldiers in 2023, let's assume they manage to train 1/3rd of troops in that time, it's additional 6000-7000 trained soldiers.
                This is about 16 battalions in 2023, what Russia has done with their mobiks in meantime?

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                kek at your delusional numbers.
                The real number of ukrainians trained in the West is hopefully 15k by july. It’s the official number released by the the coalition. And they hope to up it to 30k by the end of the year... but that’s just a goal.

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                still sounds insignificant

              • 1 year ago
                Anonymous

                >The real number of ukrainians trained in the West is hopefully 15k by july
                INTERFLEX trained 7400 soldiers by the 11th of November, it's been about 5 months since then, additional trainers from other EVIL HATO countries arrived to expand number of soldiers trained in 2023, American led training in Germany are not part of INTERFLEX and are counted separately. My numbers seem to be quite fine, yours are coping

            • 1 year ago
              Anonymous

              Also, Americans are teaching Ukrainian forces in combined arms warfare
              https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >GLSDB that puts the entire southern front in striking range
        there's nothing unprotected there anymore. AA will shoot down GLSDB.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >This only works under the assumption that Western assistance doesn't change from current levels, but throughout the whole war, the rate of Western aid to Ukraine has only trended up, and they are slowly but steadily gaining more capabilities through the delivery of Western tanks and IFVs and new systems like GLSDB that puts the entire southern front in striking range.
        Isn't the western world already facing the serious problem of Ukraine burning through ammunition and material far faster than it can be produced, consuming the production of months and years in just weeks?

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          Yes. We went through all this bullshit in 1973, when the Israelis were burning through ammo five times faster than NATO war planners has predicted, or something like that. It led to a wholesale shakeup in military procurement... which has apparently worn off and needs to be shaken up all over again. Symbolic dribs and drabs aren't going to cut it in WW1 With Drones.

          The Russians are corrupt, lethargic, and inept, but they are serious and playing for keeps. The West is rich, powerful, and content with the logistical equivalent of virtue signalling. I'm starting to get a little worried.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          >Isn't the western world already facing the serious problem of Ukraine burning through ammunition
          Shell production is being scaled up, ammunition is being bought from Australia, Pakistan, South Korea to fill in the missing equipment. West hasn't even started tapping into its reserves of aircrafts and ammunition to them

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          well they're already working to scale up production, the US wants to get artillery production to 90,000 a month in 2 years not to mention Europe (which currently outproduces the US) is also ramping up.
          Meanwhile Russia is much more reliant on their stockpiles due to the lack of industrial capacity and even worse ability to produce technologically complicated vehicles and weapons

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          >peace time ammunition production isn't enough to keep up with a war
          no way really????

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            that's not the reason.
            the west just found out now that it's becoming a problem -- after a year of war.
            afu is moronic and uses indirect fire way too much unlike any nato projections.

  12. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    China has nothing to gain from propping up Putin really. They have a lot more to potential gain from the RF collapsing than they do even maintaining status quo, so why would they make their own situation worse to bail out a dying autocrat?

  13. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    it basically is already a combination of that + Operation Cyclone
    the trench warfare and human waves are straight out of Iran-Iraq

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